NYRA Bets Presents Weekend Play At Saratoga: The Fourstardave Late Pick 4

by | 08.10.2018 | 3:45pm

Last weekend, Mother Nature tore through Saratoga's Saturday card, washing races off the turf and causing delays. This weekend looks a whole lot better from a weather perspective, and that means it'll be better from a wagering perspective.

For our Weekend Play, I'm tackling the Saturday Late Pick 4 at the Spa. We had a couple of winning tickets the last time we played this earlier in the season, so let's see if we can do it again.

Race 8 – Fourstardave Handicap, G1, 1 Mile, Inner Turf
On paper, it appears anyone in this field of six can win, but upon closer inspection, I believe there's a standout and he's not the morning line favorite. #7 Yoshida (3-1) makes his first start since finishing fifth in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at the Royal Ascot meet. Fifth is an impressive result when you look at the class of horses who beat him and the ones who finished behind hm. Before that result, he was seen beating multiple Grade 1 winner Beach Patrol. Yoshida's trainer Bill Mott has won this race four times. Given the colt's record, current form, class, stalking running style and given the highly likely speed duel to develop between the horses to his inside (Heart to Heart and Voodoo Song), I see Yoshida as a confident single but will play a couple of ALL tickets.

Selections: #7 Yoshida (ALL)

Race 9 – Optional Claiming, 7 Furlongs
Based on speed figures, the favorite here, #1 Patternrecognition (9-5) would win this fairly easily with three of his last four efforts. And he's trained by Chad Brown, who's having his usual 27 percent Spa meet and ridden by Luis Saez, also having a great meet. So, he's a potential single but a bad one because many will single him and his two-back performance would get him beaten here. There are enough potential winners in this field of seven that it makes no sense to pick four or five out of the field, so we'll either go with the favorite or ALL depending on the ticket.

Selections: #1 Patternrecognition (ALL)

Race 10 – Lure Stakes, 1 1/16 Miles, Mellon Turf
This is a race to try to beat the favorite and find a price. While #1 Projected (5-2) is a Chad Brown trainee who finished second in this race last year, he's only won two of his last nine starts, one of them by a nose in an allowance and the other in a G2 with a six-horse field. #9 Zennor (4-1) is a potential single, since he's three for his last four and won this race last year. Unfortunately, that was his last start. Still, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has a good strike rate this meet (31 percent) and a pretty good record with longer layoffs.

Off the rest, #5 Mr Cub (5-1) is in excellent form for trainer Ian Wilkes; #3 Inspector Lynley (7-2) goes out for Shug McGaughey and I've learned to never toss a Shug horse in a turf race at Saratoga; #2 Blacktype (8-1) makes his 34th career start but is still running well at 7 and he's one of the few with some pace here; and finally, #7 Conquest Panthera (5-1) wouldn't be my pick but he picks up Luis Saez for trainer Mark Casse.

Selections: 1,2,3,5,7,9

Race 11 – Maiden, 1 Mile, Inner Turf
First of all, do not bet this race until you look at the scratches. It is highly likely that if there are scratches in this field of 10, one of the also-eligibles will win. Numbers 11-14 look better than almost anything in the main field. But if we are sticking with starting bunch, #4 Super Mama (2-1) looks a tough favorite, albeit by default. Of the rest, I'll include on my ticket #3 Adorable Song (12-1), dropping in class; #5 Molly's Nighthawk (6-1), second start off long layoff, #7 I Like Your Style (6-1), has improved in two turf starts; and #1 Dancingwthdaffodls (5-1), while she dropped into this class last time and was beaten 15 lengths, note that was on sloppy dirt, so that's a toss.

Selections: #1, 3, 4, 5, 7 (again, substitute the also-eligibles for sure)


Wagers:
I don't foresee this being a life-changing score by any means, and I prefer the multi-ticket approach anyway, so let's do that and see if we can hit this thing more than once and stay within about $100. I'll employ my approach of combining singles from different races.

Ticket #1 – Our singles in first two races
R8 – 7
R9 – 1
R10 – 1,2,3,5,7,9
R11 – 1,3,4,5,7
Total: $15

Ticket #2 – Singles in first and third legs
R8 – 7
R9 – ALL (7 horses)
R10 – 9
R11 – 1,3,4,5,7
Total: $17.50

Ticket #3 – Singles in first and fourth legs
R8 – 7
R9 – ALL
R10 – 1,2,3,5,7,9
R11 – 4
Total: $21

Ticket #4 – Singles in the 2nd and third legs
R8 – ALL (Six horses)
R9 – 1
R10 – 9
R11 – 1,3,4,5,7
Total: $15

Ticket #5 – Singles in the third and fourth legs
R8 – ALL
R9 – ALL
R10 – 9
R11 – 4
Total: $21

Ticket #6 – Singles in second and fourth legs
R8 – ALL
R9 – 1
R10 – 1,2,3,5,7,9
R11 – 4
Total: $18

Total wager: $107.50, with the chance to hit the wager six times.

However you choose to play this weekend, enjoy and best of luck!

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