PAULICK DERBY INDEX: SWEET REVENGE

by | 11.17.2010 | 12:46am

In what is truly becoming a pattern, this weekend's biggest winner I Want Revenge jumped from the bottom of our poll to the fourth position after romping in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday afternoon. What should not be overlooked in the wake of his 8 1/2 length win is how much stronger the case can be made for Pioneerof the Nile. Head to head, Pioneer won by a narrow margin in the Hollywood Park CashCall Futurity and left Revenge in third in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. However, I Want Revenge proved that he can run on a dirt track in New York, something Pioneerof the Nile hasn't yet done.

The two biggest losers of the week were Haynesfield and Stardom Bound. Haynesfield, one of the favorites going into the Gotham and a receipient of a first place vote in the last PDI, finished a dismal eighth and dropped completely out of the poll receiving no votes this week. And in light of a shaky performance and reports that Stardom Bound would be heading towards the Kentucky Oaks instead of the Derby, many of our voters dropped her from their lists causing her to fall from the 8th position to number 11.

While it was a relatively light weekend of racing, next week should be anything but with four major Derby preps being run. Study the poll closely this week. It may look very different after the smoke clears Sunday.

 

Ray's Picks and Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. West Coast clockers were buzzing again about the Bob Baffert-trained colt after last Sunday's five-furlong workout in :58 4/5 at Santa Anita. The work came a day after I Want Revenge, the colt Pioneerof the Nile has defeated twice, romped to victory in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. That East Coast win, while solidifying Pioneerof the Nile's status as the West's leading contender on the road to Churchill Downs, begs the question of how the switch from California's synthetics to New York's traditional dirt may have played into I Want Revenge's stunning performance. Pioneerof the Nile (by Empire Maker) goes in Saturday's Grade 2 San Felipe, part of a “fantastic four” afternoon of Kentucky Derby preps (along with Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby, Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, and Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds).

2-Old Fashioned. Also fired a bullet in his weekend workout at Oaklawn in preparation for the Rebel. Son of Unbridled's Song will be the heavy favorite to keep a perfect record for trainer Larry Jones and Rick Porter's Fox Hill Farms. Will be interesting to see whether Silver City, second to Old Fashioned in the Southwest Stakes, can make Old Fashioned work even harder for this victory.

3-I Want Revenge. Hard to say anything bad about Saturday's whiz-bang knockout of his Gotham rivals at Aqueduct, his first start on a dirt track after six races on synthetics in California. Son of A.P. Indy stallion Stephen Got Even was a good horse going into the race and came out of it a budding star. His trainer, Jeff Mullins, may not be the most desirable individual to put up on the Churchill Downs podium on Derby day (he's had his share of medication violations and it wasn't that long ago he called racing fans “addicts and idiots”).But just like Big Brown last year, let's not hold the horse accountable for the trainer's bad behavior.

4-The Pamplemousse. Kafwain colt had an easy week after his big victory in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita. Should start gearing up for his next start in the coming days.

5-Quality Road. Would like to see trainer Jimmy Jerkens ship Elusive Quality colt north for the Wood Memorial and take on I Want Revenge. Right now I would give the edge to I Want Revenge because of his experience edge, particularly around two turns.

6-Friesan Fire. He'll have his biggest test yet in the Louisiana Derby on Saturday and certainly didn't scare anyone away, as nine other 3-year-olds will line up against him. Son of A.P. Indy blazed five furlongs Monday in :58 1/5 at Fair Grounds for Larry Jones to show that he's on edge.

7-Desert Party. Not much news from the desert on Sheikh Mohammed's leading Kentucky Derby candidate. I wouldn't bet against son of Street Cry in U.A.E. Derby coming up later this month, but it's a big hill to climb to run there and then ship halfway around the world for the Kentucky Derby.

8-Beethoven. I still consider Sky Mesa colt a legitimate dark horse for the Derby. Cutting back from two turns to one-turn mile in Fountain of Youth was not to his advantage. He needs to step up much bigger in next start.

9-Patena. Saturday's Louisiana Derby will in some ways be a test to see if Rick Dutrow can move the Seeking the Gold colt up from his previous trainer, Josie Carroll, following IEAH Stable's purchase of a majority interest. Runner-up to Friesan Fire last out had a solid :58 2/5 drill at Gulfstream Park on Monday. Definitely one to watch.

10-Theregoesjojo: It was a toss-up whether to keep son of Sky Mesa in the 10 position or bump him in favor of Stardom Bound, the desperate winner of Saturday's Santa Anita Oaks who most likely is off the Kentucky Derby trail. It's pretty clear that trainer Robert Frankel thinks Stardom Bound needs to stay in her own division, though it's possible he could be overruled if she wins big in the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland next out. Theregoesjojo figures to improve off his effort in the Fountain of Youth.

Each of the four Derby preps this weekend will be interesting in its own way. Can Pioneerof the Nile continue his march successfully at Santa Anita? Will anyone stop Old Fashioned at Oaklawn? How will the Friesan Fire-Patena rematch play out? Did Barclay Tagg make the right move by shipping Hello Broadway to Tampa Bay for the Derby there? We'll have some answers on Saturday night.

Ray Paulick Fan Vote Alex Brown Paul Moran Billy Reed John Conte Bill Finley
Paulick Report Paulick Report Alex Brown Racing At The Races Billy Reed Says Conte's Picks ESPN, NYT
Pioneerof the Nile Old Fashioned Quality Road Old Fashioned Old Fashioned Pioneerof the Nile Old Fashioned
Old Fashioned I Want Revenge Dunkirk Stardom Bound Quality Road Old Fashioned Pioneerof the Nile
I Want Revenge The Pamplemousse The Pamplemousse Pioneerof the Nile Dunkirk I Want Revenge Friesan Fire
The Pamplemousse Friesan Fire I Want Revenge Quality Road Pioneerof the Nile Dunkirk The Pamplemousse
Quality Road Quality Road Rachel Alexandra I Want Revenge Friesan Fire West Side Bernie Quality Road
Friesan Fire Pioneerof the Nile Desert Party Hello Broadway Hello Broadway Chocolate Candy I Want Revenge
Desert Party Dunkirk Pioneerof the Nile The Pamplemousse Desert Party Capt. Candyman Can Desert Party
Beethoven Imperial Council Friesan Fire Friesan Fire Patena The Pamplemousse Dunkirk

 

Patena Desert Party Patena Desert Party Beethoven Hello Broadway Silver City
Theregoesjojo Patena Hello Broadway Dunkirk Stardom Bound Giant Oak Patena
Randy Moss Bill Nack Valerie Grash Gary West Michael Nikolic Dana Byerly Jeremy Plonk
ESPN ESPN Foolish Pleasure FW Star-Telegram Gathering the Wind Green But Game Horseplayer Pro, ESPN
Quality Road Dunkirk Friesan Fire Old Fashioned Old Fashioned Old Fashioned Pioneerof the Nile
I Want Revenge The Pamplemousse Old Fashioned Quality Road Friesan Fire Friesan Fire Old Fashioned
Old Fashioned Pioneerof the Nile Stardom Bound Dunkirk Desert Party Flying Pegasus Patena
Dunkirk I Want Revenge Rachel Alexandra Hello Broadway Patena Desert Party Friesan Fire
Pioneerof the Nile Quality Road I Want Revenge Pioneerof the Nile Pioneerof the Nile Quality Road Imperial Council
The Pamplemousse Old Fashioned Papa Clem Friesan Fire I Want Revenge I Want Revenge Hello Broadway
Friesan Fire Stardom Bound Hello Broadway I Want Revenge Chocolate Candy Patena Dunkirk
Theregoesjojo Friesan Fire Mr. Hot Stuff Giant Oak Papa Clem Theregoesjojo Quality Road
Desert Party Desert Party Imperial Council Patena Quality Road Imperial Council The Pamplemousse
Beethoven Giant Oak Dunkirk Flying Pegasus Flying Pegasus Nowhere to Hide Mr. Hot Stuff
Bill Christine John Pricci Vic Zast Jon White Richard Eng Alan Mann Alicia Wincze
Horserace Insider Horserace Insider Horserace Insider HRTV, Santa Anita TV Las Vegas R-J Left at the Gate Lexington H-L
Old Fashioned Old Fashioned Old Fashioned Pioneerof the Nile Patena Pioneerof the Nile Old Fashioned
I Want Revenge Pioneerof the Nile Pioneerof the Nile Old Fashioned Old Fashioned Friesan Fire Friesan Fire
Desert Party The Pamplemousse Stardom Bound I Want Revenge Friesan Fire Old Fashioned Pioneerof the Nile
Pioneerof the Nile I Want Revenge The Pamplemousse Quality Road The Pamplemousse Papa Clem Desert Party
Friesan Fire Friesan Fire Friesan Fire The Pamplemousse Pioneerof the Nile Stardom Bound The Pamplemousse
Quality Road Stardom Bound Dunkirk Friesan Fire Quality Road Dunkirk Quality Road
Vineyard Haven Quality Road Desert Party Patena Dunkirk The Pamplemousse I Want Revenge
The Pamplemousse Dunkirk Capt. Candyman Can Papa Clem I Want Revenge I Want Revenge Hello Broadway
Theregoesjojo Desert Party Chocolate Candy Dunkirk Danger to Society Flying Pegasus Chocolate Candy
Patena Hello Broadway Quality Road Chocolate Candy Theregoesjojo Imperial Council Beethoven
Art Wilson Joe Drape Andy Serling Jessica Chapel Brendan O'Meara Jeff Scott Lisa Grimm
Los Angeles Newspapers New York Times NYRA Railbird The Saratogian The Saratogian SuperfectaBlog
The Pamplemousse Old Fashioned Imperial Council Old Fashioned Friesan Fire I Want Revenge Pioneerof the Nile
Old Fashioned Pioneerof the Nile The Pamplemousse Desert Party Old Fashioned Pioneerof the Nile The Pamplemousse
Pioneerof the Nile Quality Road Desert Party Friesan Fire Desert Party Friesan Fire Old Fashioned
Dunkirk The Pamplemousse I Want Revenge Pioneerof the Nile Quality Road Desert Party Friesan Fire
I Want Revenge Theregoesjojo Rachel Alexandra I Want Revenge Dunkirk Old Fashioned I Want Revenge
Quality Road Friesan Fire Quality Road Flying Pegasus Take the Points Flat Out Quality Road
Papa Clem Hello Broadway Danger to Society Regal Ransom Pioneerof the Nile Quality Road Chocolate Candy
Imperial Council Sumo Old Fashioned Dunkirk I Want Revenge The Pamplemousse Stardom Bound
Friesan Fire Dunkirk Dunkirk Quality Road Imperial Council General Quarters Patena
Desert Party I Want Revenge Hello Broadway Papa Clem Nowhere to Hide Mr. Hot Stuff Hello Broadway

 

 

 

Patrick Patten Peter Denk Nick Kling Simon Bray Todd Schrupp
Tbred Bloggers Alliance Thoroughbred Times The Troy Record TVG TVG
Friesan Fire Old Fashioned Old Fashioned Old Fashioned Old Fashioned
General Quarters Dunkirk Patena Pioneerof the Nile Desert Party
Chocolate Candy Quality Road Dunkirk I Want Revenge The Pamplemousse
Pioneerof the Nile Desert Party Friesan Fire The Pamplemousse Quality Road
The Pamplemousse Pioneerof the Nile I Want Revenge Friesan Fire Friesan Fire
Hello Broadway I Want Revenge Imperial Council Dunkirk Dunkirk
I Want Revenge Patena Hello Broadway Hello Broadway I Want Revenge
Old Fashioned Friesan Fire Flying Pegasus Chocolate Candy Affirmatif
Patena The Pamplemousse Giant Oak Quality Road Pioneerof the Nile
Quality Road Imperial Council Beethoven Desert Party Stardom Bound
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