Equibase Analysis: Who Will Grab Kentucky Derby Points In Sham Stakes?

by | 01.02.2020 | 11:11am
Taishan

The 20th running of the Grade 3, $100,000 Sham Stakes is the first of four Santa Anita races for budding Kentucky Derby hopefuls, which includes the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and San Felipe Stakes before the finale, the Santa Anita Derby in April.

Six horses line up for this year's Sham with five having won their most recent races. The only one of the group with prior stakes experience is Zimba Warrior, coming into the race off a third place effort in the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes at seven furlongs in November. Two horses – Taishan and Azul Coast, enter the race off wins at this mile trip in maiden company. Scoring lost by a head in his only start, in June, but was placed first via disqualification of the winner. Uncaptured Hero and Authentic both won sprints on the same date, November 9, at Del Mar, and hope to stretch out and step up to get on the radar of early Derby hopefuls.

Scoring will be my top choice to win this year's Sham Stakes, although the 87 Equibase Speed Figure he earned winning his only start in June (via disqualification of the original winner) is well behind the best figures of some of the others in this race. Still, there are a number of reasons to like his chances. First among those reasons is he's six months older and likely bigger and stronger physically. Additionally, in that race Scoring showed more maturity than many first time starters in relaxing in the early stages then rallying from third to miss by a head at the finish. Better still, the pedigree information provided by STATS Race Lens tells me Scoring is bred to relish running in a route like this one mile race. His dam, High Heeled Hope, has produced six foals. Three are dirt route winners. Another, Lady T N T, is a full sister, her sire being Justin Phillip, and she won over $300,000 including the Charles Town Oaks, a seven furlong two-turn race. Additionally, the sons and daughters of Justin Philip have an excellent record overall in routes (32 for 159 over the past two years) on dirt, which is another factor in believing Scoring is going to improve enough off a six month rest to win the Sham Stakes. 


Taishan
stretched out to two turns to win in November in his second career start. The 99 figure is the best figure earned my any horse in the field. Logically that effort, and figure, should be improved upon in the horse's third career start and second route. Taishan showed maturity in the win when sitting in third of six in the early stages before drawing off by a length. Although sons and daughters of his sire, Twirling Candy, have a poor 3 for 32 record in dirt route stakes for three year olds over the years, one of those was a top three year old in 2016, Danzing Candy, who won the San Felipe Stakes that year. Richard Baltas trains Taishan and also Uncaptured Hero, whose 82 figure winning in November is the lowest among this group. If Taishan runs as he did in his maiden victory, he could be in a great spot in second or third once again off his stablemate, who is the likely pacesetter, and can win his second mile race in a row.

Authentic is trained by Bob Baffert, who won this race two years ago with McKinzie and two years before that with Collected. Baffert also saddles Azul Coast, who earned a 91 figure winning his only start. I prefer Authentic as a contender, who has a 97 figure to improve upon from his only start in November. Sitting off the pacesetter by a half-length in that race, Authentic made a quick move on the turn to pass and be in front by a length and one-half with an eighth of a mile to go, before coasting home by that same margin. As a son of top sire Into Mischief, whose foals won four dirt route stakes in 2019 and who placed in six others from 25 starts, Authentic appears to be another strong contender in this year's Sham Stakes.

Zimba Warrior rounds out the field, with 90 and 89 figures in his last two starts, neither effort appearing good enough to compete with the best in this field. 

My Selections in preference order:
Scoring
Taishan
Authentic

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