Equibase Analysis: Who To Choose In Full-Field Commonwealth Turf Stakes?

by | 11.07.2019 | 3:01pm
Paynter colt Knicks Go won the G1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last fall

The Grade 3, $175,000 Commonwealth Turf Stakes at Churchill Downs features an overflow field with 16 horses entered including two also-eligibles.

In terms of recent efforts in stakes, Spectacular Gem deserves first mention as he won the Jefferson Cup Stakes over the Churchill Downs turf last month, with runner-up Tracksmith, third place finisher Faraway Kitten and fourth place finisher Clint Maroon all trying to turn the tables on the winner. Another horse with a strong record of success is Tiz Plus, bringing a six-for-nine record in 2019 into the race including the Robert Dupret Derby in August. Tiz Plus recently joined the barn of trainer Steve Asmussen, who saddled Hot Springs to win the Commonwealth Turf Stakes one year ago. Knicks Go posted the 70-to-1 upset in the 2018 Breeders' Futurity on dirt but is winless in nine races since and is trying turf for the first time. However, with a need-the-lead style Knicks Go could take the rest of the Commonwealth Turf field on a merry chase.

Marquee Prince may have credentials to succeed with a five for 10 career record including a win in the Black Gold Stakes in March. Armistice Day ships in from Woodbine in Canada off a runner-up effort on an all-weather surface in the Grade 3 Ontario Derby and has won on turf as well. Journeyman won the Grade 3 Canadian Derby in August but was disqualified and place second, before a fifth of 10 placing in a very strong field in the Dueling Grounds Derby in September. Pirate's Punch missed winning the Grade 3 Super Derby by a length in September before missing by a neck in a strong allowance field last month behind multiple graded stakes placed Gray Magician. Louder Than Bombs, Mr. Dumas, Osage Moon, Tobacco Road  and also-eligibles Clear Vision and Proliferate round out the field. 

Tiz Plus gets top billing as a win contender in my opinion for a number of reasons. First, his overall six-for-11 record includes five wins in nine tries on grass. Next, Tiz Plus has won five of his last six races, four of those on turf with the only poor effort coming when trying the longer distance of one mile and one-eighth for the first time in September. His last two wins came against older horses and he is facing just three year olds today, which can offer an edge. Best of all, his pattern of improving Equibase Speed Figures, from 91 on September 5 to 98 on September 29 to a career-best 103 figure on October 12, suggest even better is forthcoming. Tiz Plus recently transferred into the barn of Steve Asmussen, who is number two among all trainers in North America, and the number one winning jockey for Asmussen, Ricardo Santana, takes the call. With excellent tactical speed which should enable him to be in the top three positions from the start, Tiz Plus looks very capable of posting the upset to win this year's Commonwealth Turf Stakes and providing trainer Asmussen with a win in this race for the second year in a row, having saddled Hot Springs to victory in 2018.

Armistice Day is also on a strong pattern of improving figures which suggest he could be a formidable opponent in this race. Although he finished sixth of 10 the first time he tried grass in May, Armistice Day was a different horse in July when winning the Toronto Cup Stakes on the grass and earning an 85 figure. Although seventh in September in the Dueling Grounds Derby, the field was even stronger than the Toronto Cup and so his figure improved to 101. Then, three weeks later on September 28, Armistice Day improved to a 104 figure when second in the Ontario Derby. With a very sharp five furlong workout, which was the best of 57 on the day, as his most recent in preparation for the race and picking up the services of Churchill Downs leading jockey Corie Lanerie, there's little doubt Armistice Day will have a big say in the outcome of the Commonwealth Turf Stakes. 

Marquee Prince is yet another horse with a proven record of success. His overall five-for-10 record includes three wins in six races on turf. One of those was in the Lloyd Captain Maestri Memorial Stakes last February, an effort which followed with a win in the Black Gold Stakes in March with a 100 figure. Taking time off between May and his next start on September 24, Marquee Prince returned in an allowance race on grass and earned a career-best 103 figure which could be a stepping stone to much better second off the layoff. As such, Marquee Prince deserves a lot of respect when considering who can win this race. 

The rest of the Commonwealth Turf Stakes field, with their best representative E Figures is Clear Vision (97), Clint Maroon (106), Faraway Kitten (105), Journeyman (105), Knicks Go (103), Louder Than Bombs (107), Mr. Dumas (101), Osage Moon (92), Pirate's Punch (104), Proliferate (99), Spectacular Gem (105), Tobacco Road (93) and Tracksmith (105). 

Win Contenders:
Tiz Plus
Armistice Day
Marquee Prince

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