The Friday Show: Kentucky Derby Match Game?

by | 04.21.2017 | 8:53am

There could be some last-minute adjustments to the field, but in general we know which horses will line up to contest the 143rd running of the Kentucky Derby in a couple of weeks.

Now that all of the prep races have been run, it's time to look back and see what we've learned, and to start separating the contenders from the pretenders.

In this week's edition of The Friday Show, Scott Jagow and Ray Paulick put their opinions to the test in game show format. Enjoy the show and see if your opinions match theirs.

Of the 100-point prep races, which one will have the biggest impact on the Kentucky Derby result?

  • Chuck Seddio

    totally agree with scott,sunland derby may be the key race. mckraken and tapwrit were highly regarded and trounced by irap,who was a badly beaten fourth against hence. hence is looking legitimate,cal horses are just too slow and irish war cry in the wood?? brilliant minds think alike

  • Jbumi

    Ack, I can’t answer your poll question because I have two answers! Barring any last minute incidents, I have picked my top two with another two as back-up (most years I settle on one, but this isn’t most years!). I think Classic Empire’s & McCraken’s final preps (the Arkansas & Blue Grass, respectively) have set them up to have excellent runs in the Derby. If they don’t take home the roses, I think it’ll be either Always Dreaming (although I don’t know the owners, I’d swear the horse is named after me!!) or Girvin.

    As long as all 20 cross the wire safely, I’ll be happy!

  • Barry

    In my Superfecta, the 1st and 3rd slots will be Always Dreaming and Gunnevera. I’m still looking for some wildcards to fill the 2nd and 4th slots.

  • bpiets

    ‘i’ think a long shot will win each of the three races…

  • Al Milano

    A fun video, but I don’t think the fellows are right about much of this. If you look at the form cycles of the main contenders you’ll find a lot of in and out races among them….the key seems to be that there has been a lot of bouncing and regressing off sharp wins (as measured by the speed numbers achieved) by many of the contenders.

    Without going into too much detail, one ends up with (not in order of strength) McCraken, Classic Empire, Practical Joke and Girvin as the key contenders that are headed into a better or best part of their form. Gunnevera is on the cusp.

    The rest will bounce or regress to a level that won’t be enough to win in what is a very tight field.

  • Horse Lover

    Congratulations on a great show, guys! Really enjoyed it even though I didn’t always agree with all the picks. But that’s horse racing, right?

  • David Worley

    I agree with Scott on his Derby analysis. I like Hence assuming he draws a decent post position and has a derby-experienced jockey. I also think the Sunland Derby is consistently under rated as a Derby prep; this year may be another one in which we see this on full display.

  • disqus_VDMOBiuPfw

    Neither one of those “best stories” was very relateable. I think Patch, being one-eyed, or Gunnevera, being so inexpensive, are far better stories.

  • Jack Frazier

    When one looks at all of the “Obvious” contenders, it looks like a crap shoot. No one really sticks out, in my mind. There are some good horses spread all over the country and on any given day they would take turns beating the others. This is either 1. A really good crop of three year-olds, or 2. a very mediocre bunch. Let’s let the outcome happen on the track because non of us are soothsayers or psychics.

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