The Friday Show Presented By The Penn Mile: Baltimore Spirit?

by | 05.19.2017 | 1:57am
Who will win this year's Woodlawn Vase following the Preakness?

There could hardly be a better name for a Kentucky Derby winner trying for a Triple Crown than Always Dreaming. But despite having a Triple Crown winner two years ago, the feat remains as difficult as ever.

In this special Preakness edition of The Friday Show, Scott Jagow and Ray Paulick discuss the contenders who might be able to upset the Derby winner. Plus, are there horses that didn't run in the Derby who have a chance?

That and an education in Maryland's whiskey culture as The Friday Show sponsored by the Penn Mile comes to you from a special location on the Baltimore harbor.

Enjoy the Preakness edition of The Friday Show below.

  • David Worley

    Can I just say that this Preakness is a truly great handicapping race! The field is really well matched.

    Ray, I’d be happy to take you up on a healthy bet regarding your comment that the new shooters “will not hit the board.” Multiplier, Cloud Computing and Conquest Mo Money all have legitimate shots to run in the money.

    I think the most important factor in this race will be Jorge Carreno on Conquest Mo Money. Carreno will be sitting on a lot more horse than what you saw in the Arkansas Derby and would be a big threat to win this race if he wasn’t running from post 10. Since CMM likes to go to the lead the pace he sets will be the deciding factor in this race. If I’m Pletcher, my biggest concern is CMMs opening half mile. As long as Carreno isn’t out there running way crazy (like 22.0) then Always Dreaming has to take him seriously as a threat. If he puts in an opening quarter at 23.0 then Velazquez really has a problem because he will want to stay relatively close to him and if he chooses to run at that pace he will be vulnerable in the stretch.

    I think this race sets up really nicely for Classic Empire to run down a tiring Always Dreaming in the stretch. But I also think that CE will go off at around 5/2 and that isn’t very appealing. So, if we are talking win tickets I think the best VALUE on the board will be Hence at 20+ to 1.

    Scott, your comment about Gunnevera is actually better aimed at Hence. If Geroux can get him out of the gate quickly and not fall more than 5 lengths off the leaders he is dangerous in the stretch assuming he finds a crease. He has 10-15% chance to win the race and at 20-1 (and I think he may go off north of that) he is the best value on the board (an overlay of 2.0+). I think Classic Empire has about 25% chance to win (he will be an underlay), Always Dreaming about 25% (huge underlay), Conquest Mo Money 15% (he will be an overlay), Gunnervera 10% (he will be an overlay). There are LOTS of good options in this race.

    • Michael Castellano

      The two favorites will get most of the money. I agree it sets up for Classic Empire, as AD and CMO might wind up setting a fast pace. It all depends, as usual, on the start. The horse that is 3rd on the outside could be the winner. But at a short price, CE will not get you rich. But losers pay nothing. I’m inclined to like CE. Maybe Looking at Alex gets a piece.

      • David Worley

        I don’t like Lookin at Lee in this race. I think he had a very favorable trip (comparatively) in the Derby and I’m concerned about how much that race took out of him. What do you think of Gunnevera and Hence?

        • Michael Castellano

          Certainly has a chance. The Derby, as often happens, did not clarify things very well. Looking at Lee (not Alex!, was just texting him) looks like a solid classic closer, I’m not holding his good Derby trip against him.. This race could wind up in early speed duels and set it up for him. He was my only cashed ticket in the Derby. Like CE and him, and I need one other for the Triple. Hadn’t decided that yet. Hard to thrown Pletcher’s horse out of the Triple. But Looking at Lee will likely be overlooked and 10 – 1 despite his Derby performance. Maybe an exacta with him and CE, assuming it pays enough.

          • Virginia Lawler

            Thanks for mentioning the early speed duels possibilities, which I’d neglected to consider. Could be helpful–except I’d so like any to aid my home state favorite, Multiplier.

    • David Worley

      I think my Hence plan is out of the window. Both Hence and Gunnevera have very little shot on as early speed favoring track as Pimlico is today. Perhaps tomorrow will be different, but it looks impossible to run horses down on this track.

      • Virginia Lawler

        Opps. Sounds like the track condition could dim my optimism for Multiplier, considering his previous style. And right after somewhere (I’ve already forgotten where) he got enough support to drop from 30-1 to 24-1.

    • Virginia Lawler

      Nice to see you mention Multiplier! Also fun that he was the show pick by Kent Taylor, sports director at WAVE-TV, Louisville, this morning.

  • Jbumi

    I think this year’s Preakness will be Classic & shall help establish his Empire!!!

    I don’t bet, but if I was going to, it’d be $10 on Multiplier to show.

    • Virginia Lawler

      Loved your opening line. Appreciated seeing your “intellectual” support for Multiplier, who’s been my show pick since the Illinois Derby. Part of his appeal is that my late Dad, a breeder/owner who raced his Illinois homebreds for nearly 40 years, would have liked so much about him. Non-racer at 2. Improved from 3rd to 2nd to 1st in his 3 races before the Illinois G3. Laidback, altho’ maybe also a tad lazy early on and with a mind of his own, but, seems to have figured out that it’s kind of fun to win. PP1 isn’t even especially bothersome since he ‘s handled crowding OK. Jockey Graham was just fine, but the chance to get Rosario, with his experience at Pimlico and success in the Preakness, seems like a little extra serendipity, too. It’s going to be a long afternoon….

  • Jack Frazier

    Don’t think Scott meant to do it but I had to laugh when he said, “Underarmor” and Sagamore in the same sentence. Folks who have too much sag a more in their briefs need them. I like the pun.

    Good show.

  • David Worley

    Posted following 7th race on Friday. If the track plays the same way tomorrow as it is today, good luck with anyone coming from more than a couple lengths back at the 3/4 poll. Early speed carries at Pimlico today.

  • horsepower

    Kudos to Sagamore for their support of Racing

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