The Friday Show: Derby Whiffs, Preakness Trends?

by | 05.12.2017 | 9:01am
Always Dreaming's connections celebrate the colt's Kentucky Derby victory

The Friday Show team was not with the public when it came to choosing Saturday's Kentucky Derby winner, and that turned out to be a mistake.

In today's edition of The Friday Show, Scott Jagow and Ray Paulick look back on what happened to put Always Dreaming in the winner's circle and put most of their betting slips in the trash. Plus, a look ahead to the Preakness, in a historical context and from the perspective of the field that will try to upset the Derby winner.

Enjoy this week's edition of The Friday Show.

  • David Worley

    Good show.

    In any horse race the question “is Blank going to win the race” is the wrong question. The right question is “what is the probability that Blank will win the race.” But that’s the difference between people who handicap and people who blindly gamble.

    So to answer my own question, Always Dreaming is certainly the horse that is overwhemingly most probable to win the Preakness; but he will be a huge underlay in the race. That said, a horse that has had as many training problems as he has would cause me (perhaps wrongly) to question his ability to follow his jockey’s cues (read rate well). I’d be concerned about too fast of an early pace with several horses who have early speed which would set up a potential upset from horses who can keep within five lengths of that pace and still close.

    So, perhaps foolishly, I’m putting my stake back in the ground with Hence assuming that he is an overlay (which I think he will be). Hence has exactly the right kind of style to win this race if he delivers a Sunland Derby type performance. His fair odds should be at round 15-1 and I anticipate he will be forgotten at the window and go off at north of 20-1.

    • Al Milano

      You could be right. This horse did not run at all in Louisville. A 10 furlong workout.

      • David Worley

        Exactly. Got pinched out of the gate, by necessity ran more slowly than his best, and coasted for the last 1/8th. My one concern is that the race psychologically harmed him (as in lost confidence); but Asmussen is a good trainer and will figure out how to deal with any confidence building the horse may need.

  • Stuart H

    “He had the jockey that knew what to do…”

    That is key. In fact, that is huge in the Kentucky Derby. And it is not always a veteran jockey. But it has to be a jockey that knows the horse, the track, and how the track is playing…and knows how to get a horse near position by the eighth pole. And you have to have the horse. Johnny V is the jockey and he had the horse. And Corey V gave LAL a good ground saving ride.

    As for the other horses, I am with Ray…you have to draw a line through many of the other horses that did not run their races in the Derby. Most were mid track in that slop…it reminded me of the 2009 Derby or the 2007 BC Classic at Monmouth.

  • Jack Frazier

    Looking at the Derby, the mud, oversized field and the demolition derby action leaving the starting gates played to advantage of Always Dreaming but not as much as folks are saying. Horses almost always have trouble at Churchill in the Derby and this was no exception Johnny V’s ride and the way Pletcher prepped him for the race show remarkable horsemanship and really don’t thing he gives two hoots about what the “prognosticators” or guessers think. Very good horsemen who follows his own plans and is not influenced by people who, other than gambling and guessing about who will win, don’t know the ins and outs of training a horse.

    That being said, with his tactical speed, turn of foot when asked and with a great rider on him, I believe the others, including the new shooters, are running for second. What is going to happen is that Pimlico will be muddy, maybe worse than Churchill. I have always believe mud is the great equalizer and this horse has proven to be superior on that surface. I bothered a lot of horses in the Derby when the mud began to hit them in the face.

    I will pull for Always Dreaming, an appropriate name for those who in the business. Everyone always dreams to have a great horse and most of the time they are disappointed. How high is Tom Durkin to be a part owner of a Derby winner a short time after he retires? I can’t count that high.

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