The Derby 20 Presented By Adequan: Finding Value

by | 04.22.2019 | 4:41pm

With two weeks to go before the Run for the Roses, all eyes will be on the contenders final workouts. There are still several jockey assignments left to be decided, though Hall of Famer Mike Smith's decision to ride Omaha Beach over Roadster confirms the Richard Mandella trainee's place atop my rankings.

Horses in the top 20 point-earners which have not confirmed riders include: Country House, Cutting Humor, and Gray Magician.

A number of readers have questioned my decision to list Florida Derby winner Maximum Security so low on this list (19th), so I'll take this opportunity to explain my reasoning. First, the pace setup in that race is extremely unlikely to materialize in the Kentucky Derby, and second, Gulfstream has a well-deserved reputation as a speed-favoring track. I believe that the combination of these two factors means that this colt was made to look much better than he actually is.

Maximum Security does have some of the strongest Beyer figures heading into the Kentucky Derby, and while I respect the Beyer people I don't trust their analysis of this colt. It's possible that I'm wrong and the colt is the fastest we've seen this year, but his price on Derby day is likely to be artificially low and I'm just not willing to play him at that value when I believe there are better options.

In my opinion, colts who will offer the best value in this year's Kentucky Derby are War of Will, Code of Honor, and Tax. That does not mean I believe they are the most likely to win, but as each will probably offer double-digit odds or better, these three are colts I will certainly be playing heavily in the exotics.

Typically, one or two scratches from the field will occur before entries are taken, so the connections of the 21st through 25th-ranked points earners are all keeping their fingers crossed. In order, those horses are: Bodexpress (40), Signalman (38), Anothertwistafate (38), Sueno (32), and Bourbon War (31).

Where did your favorite horse end up on the list? Be sure to click on the expandable boxes for each Derby candidate to get all the latest information — in this edition of The Derby 20!

Omaha Beach
1st
Paulick Report Ranking
Next Expected Start
Connections
Pedigree
137.5
Derby Points
Tacitus
2nd
Paulick Report Ranking
Next Expected Start
Connections
Pedigree
150
Derby Points
Roadster
3rd
Paulick Report Ranking
Next Expected Start
Connections
Pedigree
100
Derby Points
Code of Honor
4th
Paulick Report Ranking
Next Expected Start
Connections
Pedigree
74
Derby Points
Game Winner
5th
Paulick Report Ranking
Next Expected Start
Connections
Pedigree
85
Derby Points
Win Win Win
6th
Paulick Report Ranking
Next Expected Start
Connections
Pedigree
50
Derby Points
Tax
7th
Paulick Report Ranking
Next Expected Start
Connections
Pedigree
52
Derby Points
War Of Will
8th
Paulick Report Ranking
Next Expected Start
Connections
Pedigree
60
Derby Points
Improbable
9th
Paulick Report Ranking
Next Expected Start
Connections
Pedigree
65
Derby Points
By My Standards
10th
Paulick Report Ranking
Next Expected Start
Connections
Pedigree
100
Derby Points
Cutting Humor
11th
Paulick Report Ranking
Next Expected Start
Connections
Pedigree
50
Derby Points
Vekoma
12th
Paulick Report Ranking
Next Expected Start
Connections
Pedigree
110
Derby Points
Plus Que Parfait
13th
Paulick Report Ranking
Next Expected Start
Connections
Pedigree
104
Derby Points
Long Range Toddy
14th
Paulick Report Ranking
Next Expected Start
Connections
Pedigree
53.5
Derby Points
Haikal
15th
Paulick Report Ranking
Next Expected Start
Connections
Pedigree
70
Derby Points
Spinoff
16th
Paulick Report Ranking
Next Expected Start
Connections
Pedigree
40
Derby Points
Country House
17th
Paulick Report Ranking
Next Expected Start
Connections
Pedigree
50
Derby Points
Gray Magician
18th
Paulick Report Ranking
Next Expected Start
Connections
Pedigree
41
Derby Points
Maximum Security
19th
Paulick Report Ranking
Next Expected Start
Connections
Pedigree
100
Derby Points
Master Fencer
20th
Paulick Report Ranking
Next Expected Start
Connections
Pedigree
Japan RTKD
Derby Points
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