If you’re game I’ll take $1,000.00 of that action!!!!!!

I’ll Have Another will probably go off at marginally less than 2 to 1 odds, and coming from someone who used to be a ‘Bookie’ in England, that would appear to be a fair representation of his chances of winning. The fact that 11 other dual classic winners have failed before him, does not affect his chances whatsoever. The fact that he has relaxed well in his two past races, and then used maximum exertion for the last two furlongs would lead us to believe that he will have enough energy left to have an outstanding chance to be a ‘Triple Crown’ winner. Good luck to all the connections who saw enough in this ‘working mans’ horse to give him a shot!

I think I’ll Have Another has a much better chance than horses in recent years just because O’Neill’s training methods are a throw back to the old days when horses were conditioned for stamina.
 Make no mistake about it, this race was won over the past weeks of early morning workouts…-How many that competed in the 2012 editions of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes ever recorded a work of 7F? One – I’ll Have Another (and he did it twice).-How many clocked an 8F effort? One – I’ll Have Another.-How many completed roughly 10 miles of 2 minute licks (or slightly faster) over the past 3 weeks? By now you know the answer to that. Once upon a time this blogger wrote about how a true Triple Crown prospect needed to gallop at a 2min lick, or slightly faster, every day in order to build maximum stamina:Of course like many horses working on the Derby trail over the past few months he also galloped out strong quarter miles past the wire, so I’ll Have Another actually worked 9F+ 3 times over the past 90 days, 3 times more than anyone else in either field.” This is from Bill Pressey and his ThoroEdge Equine Performance site.

I love Finley and his columns, but i have to disagree with him here. Real Quiet was a whisker away from pulling this off and he’s hardly an all time great horse. If RQ can almost do it, IHA certainly CAN do it.

As far as the modern horse not being able to handle the ‘grind’, that also goes for IHA’s competition. Besides Dullihan and Union Rags being ‘freshened’, who else do you have? If either one of those colts doesnt fire a HUGE shot, who’s really in the race that can even stay with IHA?

I value Bill’s opinion, dating back to when he was practically the only racing journalist writing great in-depth articles (in the NY Daily News).  But to put “Union Rags” and “smart money” in the same sentence is – well, I can’t see it.

Bill Parcells used to ruthlessly end these debates with “You are what your record says you are.”  UR’s last two outings have been so drastically pitiful, sadly, he IS exactly what his record says he is – a nice horse who is a magnet for troubled trips.

I’ll back him in the Belmont Stakes if he goes off around 10-1 or higher, just in case he somehow finds it in himself to be able to race competently, but I can’t imagine “smart money” being attracted to him.

The business about the nasal strip does worry me, I hope it is mostly window dressing.

20,000 – 1 might be the odds before the Derby and the Preakness are run, but they aren’t the odds when it comes down to one race, the Belmont.  Goofy to even write that.

My theory is that winners of the first two Triple Crown races were too influenced by Secretariat and stalkers suddenly find themselves as pacesetters wayyyy too early in the race.

Can’t believe Finley is spot on.  First is to have an eye for a fast horse.  In prioritized order objectives then become 1) go 1st or 2nd in graded 2-year-old stakes (ideally in BC juvenile), 2) target 2 spots after Feb 15th, 3) avoid injury 4) write a check for 50k.  With goal of running in the Kentucky Derby met, anything else pure gravy.  If lighting strikes, Preakness is automatic; short of that, ecstasy memorialized and pictures go on the wall.  The game IS the DERBY; Preakness is ancillary and the TC is no longer thought to be achievable.  REAL QUIET was barely run down, if only Elliott hadn’t moved too quickly on SMARTY JONES and if BIG BROWN hadn’t come up lame and, and, and . . . Finley’s right, it’s a pipe dream to think today’s US 3-year-old t’breds can win at classic distances in a 5-week span.  IHA will be favored but won’t get there either. 

So why did Visa or Master Card DROP the Triple Crown Bonus several years ago……seems like a win-win promotion.

VISA and Chrysler prior to them evaluated involvement with the TC against other projects.  Cost included entitlement fees, minimum advertisement commitment, collateral support campaign and hospitality put-ups by the tracks.  An insurance policy against someone hitting the bonus was a mere line item.  The tracks couldn’t hold a deal together; yes, some intramurals contributed but overriding reason was diminished sponsor value for a top-heavy package deal (that is Derby was and is the eye candy) eventually leading to separate broadcast deals.   NBC will likely re-institute some sort of bonus but, short of IHA winning the Belmont, they’re not going to put a hefty support campaign that history says will likely be moot two weeks after the Derby.

To add to your respect for stamina conditioning, Afleet Alex, who finished a nice third in the Derby and a spectacular first in the Preakness, was brought out twice a day in the weeks leading up to the Belmont.  People thought Tim Ritchey was crazy, but Alex won.

There are perhaps 6 times a year where the situation allows for serious handicapping and serious betting for me.  The Belmont, with a potential Triple Crown winner is one of those situations that I would normally ‘attack’.  The horse is always overbet and provides a unique opportunity to make money.
This year, I will be in line with the $2 bettors and rooting for a horse that I believe can win it.  Feels like a bettor trip already.

Bill Finely —

Your a blowhard! You don’t have to
degrade yourself, publically, to sell papers. The odds of IHA of
winning the Triple Crown are exactly what his odds are at post time
is. If you, truly, believe what your spouting, lay it, and see if
you have any takers?

Again, the problem with the media —
although we know Finely is joking, BUT, what angers me is that this
type dishonesty, under the guise of jokingly, is used to get people
to read the entire article, which then spouts subjective opinion as
fact —- horses not bred for the grind. BULL — what is “NEVER”
spoke about is the breeding of “unsound” Stallions and Broodmares
to begin with. When is somebody going to do a reliable investigative
report on the true reason behind breakdowns, short carriers, fewer
starts?

Here is a very short list of racing
stars that are being bred, going into the breeding program, and being
pointed to the breeding shed. These are horses that the recent public
should be familiar with, and this is just the tip of the iceberg:

Unbridled Song —  Fractured cannon bone;
re-occurring feet/hoof problems ; Sire

                     
of  many injury prone offspring.  Just Goggle
his name!!

 Animal Kingdom — Stress fracture

Havre de Grace — lateral ligament in ankle

Misremembered — Tendon

Dunkirk — condylar fracture

Archarcharch — condylar fracture

Princess Arabella — Tendon

Eskendereya — Soft Tissue (usually tendon or
suspensory)

Winslow Homer — slab fracture

Old Fashioned — slab fracture

Question: If these horses could not hold up to
training and racing, what makes people think that their offspring
will fare much better — then we will hear about race no day
medications when, in fact, it’s the faulty breeding, unsound
breeding, that is causing the problems (breakdowns, less starts, need
for medications) .

It’s the breeding industry, that through the
camouflage of banning race day medications, that Stallions, and
Broodmares, are not investigated as to soundness, with respect to
their racing careers, for breeding purposes!

 IHA also hasn’t encountered any adversity in either of those races. He’s definitely had his share of racing luck…so far. We’ll all just have to wait and see if that trend continues..

If so I’ll take that bet all day long. I hope this doesn’t get anyone 2 torn up, but he reminds me a LITTLE, just A LITTLE of Sec. He knows when he need to go, and gets it done. Don’t have 2 win by a lot, but he wins. I do not expect him in anyway to come close 2 what SEC. did in the Belmont–but since he seems to know when to make His move–and he always has enough to “Get er done”