Setting the Preakness morning line

by | 05.16.2011 | 7:21am
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There is no guarantee the winner of the Kentucky Derby will be the betting favorite for the second leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico, contested two weeks after the Run for the Roses. In fact, of the 24 Derby winners to contest the Preakness since 1986 (Grindstone suffered a career-ending injury in the 1996 Derby), only 13 were the betting favorites at Pimlico.

Hats off to the horseplayers who bet against the Derby winners. In the 11 Preakness runnings since 1986 when the Derby winner was not the betting favorite, seven of the horses that were bet down to favoritism were victorious: Rachel Alexandria in 2009, Afleet Alex in 2005, Point Given in 2001, Timber Country in 1995, Prairie Bayou in 1993, Pine Bluff in 1992, and Snow Chief in 1986. Three of the four non-Derby-winning Preakness favorites finished second (Menifee in 1999, Victory Gallop in 1998, and Easy Goer in 1989, with one of them finishing third (Captain Bodgit in 1997).

Will Animal Kingdom be the favorite on Saturday, or will there be a groundswell of support for one of colts he defeated at Churchill Downs. After all, Animal Kingdom was 20-1 in the Derby and nine of his opponents were more highly regarded in the wagering. Four of them: runner-up Nehro (8-1), Mucho Macho Man (3rd at 9-1), favorite Dialed In (8th at 5-1), and Midnight Interlude (16th at 9-1) are expected to be in the Preakness starting field. Throw in buzz-worthy horses like Dance City and Sway Away (third and fourth, respectively, in the highly rated Arkansas Derby), and Animal Kingdom could be sent off at longer odds than one might expect of a Kentucky Derby winner.


Animal Kingdom, will be favorite, in my opinion, but will not be a short price. In a preliminary morning line I’ve prepared on the prospective field, I’ve got the son of Leroidesanimaux at 3-1.

I think it’s a good practice for any serious handicapper to establish his own morning line for a race before looking to see what professionals like Daily Racing Form’s Mike Watchmaker or Brad Free have established, or what a racetrack’s morning-line maker has set for the official program. It’s a valuable learning process, but also helps a handicapper discover things about horses he or she might not have seen while perusing a race’s past performances. It helps a horseplayer establish a value baseline for each horse, then compare it to what a professional and eventually the betting public says about the same horse.

When I worked at Daily Racing Form in the 1980s and learned from veteran handicapper Jack Karlik how to estimate and “balance” a morning line (the sum of the different percentages for each set of odds should total about 115%), a formula was drilled into my head. (The numbers are something like a childhood phone number that you can’t forget, even if you want to.) I was taught  the morning line should be your best estimate of the odds that the betting public will establish for each horse and not necessarily the odds you think a horse should be.

Here are the standardized numbers/percentages for each morning line odds or price (note: tradition dictates there is no such thing as a 7-1 morning line or 9-1, 11-1, 18-1, 25-1, etc. A 99-1 morning line can be used occasionally if you want to insult the connections of a horse and let them know they are out of their minds for running in a particular spot):


3-5 = 60%
4-5 = 55%
1-1 = 50%
6-5 = 45%
7-5 = 41%
8-5 = 38%
9-5 = 35%
2-1 = 33%
5-2 = 28%
3-1 = 25%
7-2 = 22%
4-1 = 20%
9-2 = 18%
5-1 = 16%
6-1 = 14%
8-1 = 11%
10-1 = 9%
12-1 = 7%
15-1 = 6%
20-1 = 4%
30-1 = 3%
50-1 = 2%


As an example, here is my early line for the list of Preakness contenders (which includes two more horses than will be able to start, thus the line totals slightly higher than 115%):


Animal Kingdom 3-1
Astrology 12-1
Concealed Identity 30-1
Dance City 12-1
Dialed In 6-1
Flashpoint 20-1
Isn’t He Perfect 50-1
King Congie 20-1
Midnight Interlude 15-1
Mr. Commons 20-1
Mucho Macho Man 8-1
Nehro 9-2
Norman A 30-1
Saratoga Red 50-1
Shackleford 12-1
Sway Away 12-1


It’s possible Animal Kingdom could be somewhat lower than 3-1 and several of the 15-1 or 20-1 horses could go higher. This morning line is done without the benefit of post position draw or Preakness week workouts and the “wise-guy” buzz that always seems to drive the odds down on one or more horses.

What’s right and what’s wrong with the Paulick Report’s early morning line for the Preakness?

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  • http://twitter.com/mikedorr77 Mike D

    Using your methodology, this ML is fine and I don’t have any particular disagreement with the relative order of horses. In this day and age, however, this methodology for balancing a line is antiquated and/or too imprecise. My reasons:

    1) Using a 115% total assumes a takeout of only 13% on the Win wager. Pimlico’s takeout on Win bets is 18% – therefore the total odds should add up to no less than 122% (1/0.82)

    2) I was not aware of the tradition of 7-1, 9-1, as invalide morning lines but they are perfectly valid if you think a horse has a 1-in-8 or 1-in-10 chance of winning. In a race like the Derby, too many horses at 30- or 40-1 make the odds % go way up.

    3) It is so simple with Excel or the free Google Docs spreadsheets to do an accurate ML (and do it fast), that there’s little excuse not to. See my Derby ML – goo.gl/LWY7K – for an example, though there are numerous others.

    In the defense of tradition, however, using a lower odds % consistently underestimates the average odds on horses in the race, which creates positive returns vs ML. However, as a bettor, I would appreciate more accurate MLs, deviating from tradition, so that I may more effectively ID value horses well before the odds go live.

  • Vin

    I was always curious why the ML did’t equal 100%, now I know. Mike D: your spreadsheet is very quick and helpful – Thanks – I downloaded to modify.

  • Google Act 71

    No 99-1′s. I guess that means Ray thinks everyone is in line to run.

  • Google Act 71

    Nehro will be the post time favorite at 5-2. Animal Kingdom will be 7-2. Just like Thunder Gulch was in ’95.

  • The Fish

    Thanks for this information. I always wanted to know how they set the ML. I am impressed with how quickly Battaglia sets it after the Derby Draw, but he probably has numbers in mind already and then like with ArchArchArch changes it based upon post position

  • LetItRideMike

    Does anyone else think its absurd in this age of pinpoint weather forecasting and cloud computers that morning lines are still always based on a fast track?

  • Tiznowbaby

    I think Shackleford and Macho both will go off lower.

  • Malachi Rhett

    thanks to Ray and to the others who as of now have commented on “Setting the Preakness Morning line.” As we all probably know by now, the tracks morning line is, if not the most valuable tool that we have to our exposure, to help us in our selections when betting or predicting the outcome of most races.Without the aid of the morning line we woold never have enough time to research all the required information to even make a fair perdiction of the outcome of any races, and unless we depend entirely on some of the excellent “Handicapping Tools that are available from Brisnet and some of the other, who offers these services, we wolld find it very difficult to pick a winner, or a winning combination, so my hat goen off to Battaligo and all the others who supply the bettors this valuable tool.I was asked or should I say told by a bettor at one of the famous race track one day this comment: Hey pal look at the #3 And the #7 horse in race five? both of them ran their lact six Furlong race in 109 and 109.1 respectively, and there is not another horse amoung the ten horses in the race who ran better than a 112.2, in any race they have ran in? I was somewhat amused and felt good about folling their selections until I saw that that those two horses had ran their last race on a frozen track at another facility, and all the other horses in todays field not only had never ran at that track, but most had never ran against each other, and only one had ran on a fast track. Variants? Bias? so much info have to be processed in attempting to accurately predict moltiple races, in even races with small fields, so we should not be suprise when we fail to select any winnings beyond the winning horse, or maybe the exacta, or the daily double, in especially Graded Stakes races, where most of the horses who made it to that level, have earned their chance for a crown>

  • Glenn Corl -GTC

    Speed is the main factor in running sprints and endurance is esential for longer races. Put these two together with a top jockey and you will find that Animal Kingdom will cross the finnish line first in this years Preakness.

  • http://Bellwether4u.com Bellwether

    REEL GOOD CHANCE “THE PREAKNE$$” WINNER WILL BEE HORSE OF THE YEAR…CHECK OUT IT$ HISTORY…ty…

  • Don Reed

    Warning: “99-1 Insult” M/Ls backfire!

    Just one minute ago, at 12:47 pm, there concluded an English steeplechase race (Towcester – pronounced “toaster,” you get a free one with each deposit/wager – Race One).

    The morning (eye) liner on “Exiles Return” was “60-1” (6-horse field, 5 after a scratch).

    Betting on ER was insane!

    Umm…ER went off nowhere near 60-1. Small pools? ML maker’s bad reputation? Pugnacious national tidal wave of “contrarianism”? Betting genius?

    Result: 1/5 favorite “Bahira” wandered all over the course, making all sorts of lackadaisical moves & mistakes.

    ER at an eminently rational (in hindsight) 39-1 caught him after the final jump & won.

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