By the Numbers: Keeneland Sale Ahead of 2012 Pace
Positive momentum continued during the second session of Keeneland’s September Yearling Sale on Tuesday, with results indicating good balance through the first half of the expanded Book 1 in the auction’s new format.
The usual session-to-session comparisons to the 2012 sale are impossible because of the format. It looks as though, however – barring an unexpected reversal – when Book 1 ends on Thursday evening, the first four days of the 2013 September Sale will have much more favorable results for sellers than the first four days in 2012.
The format in 2012 began with a small, one-day select Book on Monday, followed by a three-day Book 2 on Tuesday through Thursday. The combined number catalogued in 2012 was 1,047. This year’s four-day Book 1 includes 875 yearlings, which is 16.4% fewer than last year’s first four days, but gross revenue is likely to be even or slightly higher in 2013. Average price after the initial four days almost certainly will be up double-digits, as will the median. The percentage of yearlings bought back by consignors is on target to be on par or slightly lower than 2012 (28.6% last year) and the clearance rate – the percentage of yearlings sold from the number catalogued – looks to be around the same 62.6% as last year.
The eight million-dollar yearlings sold in 2013 already has exceeded the 2012 total of seven, and the number sold for $500,000 or more will likely top last year’s total of 42.
Here’s where things stand halfway through Book 1:
—374 entered the ring the first two days, with 269 selling for a total of $69,621,000. That represents an average of $34,810,500 gross receipts, 4.8% higher than the average gross of $33,213,250 from Books 1 and 2 last year.
—Average price per yearling sold for the first two days is $258,814. That’s 27.6% higher than the four-day average price of $202,829 last year. The $200,000 cumulative median is 33.3% higher than the $150,000 median in 2012.
—With a slightly lower reserve not attained rate on Tuesday (25.7%, compared with 30.5% on Monday), the cumulative 2013 RNA is 28.0%. It was 28.6% for the first four days last year.
—The clearance rate (percentage sold from those catalogued) through the first two days is 61.4% compared with 62.6% for the first four days in 2012.
The Keeneland Sale continues Wednesday at noon, with Book 1 concluding Thursday at noon. After the traditional Friday off, the sale continues on Saturday at 10 a.m. with Book 2 and continues through the following Saturday.