Vinery LTD presents the Paulick Preakness Index: Will He Have Another in Baltimore?

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One horse made the race, and ‘another’ horse won it.

That about sums up a Kentucky Derby in which Bodemeister scorched the Churchill Downs track for nine and a half furlongs, leaving his frontrunning rivals wobbly-legged through the final quarter mile.  Only I’ll Have Another, who got a perfect ride from Derby rookie Mario Gutierrez, could catch Bodemeister in the final strides.

In addition to confirming the freakish talent of Bodemeister, the Derby also chalked one up for the West Coast, as the California-based runners not only finished one-two but filled in five of the top eight spots.


In Baltimore, I’ll Have Another will try to stay unbeaten for the year while keeping the Triple Crown dream alive, but it’s entirely possible he won’t be the Preakness favorite if trainer Bob Baffert decides to take Bodemeister to Pimlico.

Last year, fourth-place Derby finisher Shackleford, after leading for much of the Derby through significantly slower fractions than Bodemeister set, went to Baltimore and took care of business at the nine-and-a-half furlong distance, denying Derby winner Animal Kingdom a shot at the Triple Crown.  A similar scenario could unfold this year with Bodemeister and I’ll Have Another.  But can Bodemeister come back in two weeks after what had to be a taxing performance in the Derby?  Can I’ll Have Another, who seems to relish a bit of space between races, do the same?

And, of course, there will be other Derby runners looking to have a say on Preakness day as well as the usual new shooters coming in with the advantage of a bit more rest.  For the second consecutive year, it appears the Preakness will have a full field of 14, and this year, for he first time, two also-eligibles will be allowed.

Of the Derby runners, in addition to I’ll Have Another and Bodemeister, potential Preakness starters include Dullahan (3rd), Went the Day Well (4th), Creative Cause (5th), Hansen (9th) and Optimizer (11th).  Liaison (6th) is also a possibility.  The newcomers include Hierro and Paynter, the one-two finishers in the Derby Trial at Churchill, Pretension and Brimstone Island, the top two finishers of the Canonero II Stakes at Pimlico, Teeth of the Dog and Tiger Walk, who finished 3rd and 4th in the Wood Memorial, and Cozzetti, 4th in the Arkansas Derby.

Paynter and Bodemeister are owned by Ahmed Zayat and trained by Baffert, and since both have front-running styles, one of them would likely skip the Preakness.  At this point, Bodemeister seems more probable for Baltimore.

Plans for seventh-place Derby finisher Union Rags are still up in the air, but trainer Michael Matz said he may wait for the Belmont, depending on how the colt does in the next few days.

This week’s Paulick Preakness Index is a bit loosey-goosey since it’s still unclear who will make the trip to Baltimore, but by next Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the field.





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  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Nick-Arden/1054071262 Nick Arden

    Question for Brendan O’Meara & Brad Telias.  Why should the horses even race if the results mean nothing to you?

    Telias’ rankings are a joke.  Hansen over I’ll Have Another????

  • Sunshine

    Hansen was exhausted, and seemed like ran his race before the race even started.  Stressed out and washed out prior to the start, rank as rank could be at the start, he annihilated himself with anxiety.  I don’t think he’s coping well with the pressure he’s got on him, or he doesn’t like the jockey!  He was not a happy horse on Saturday!  Union Rags got stopped at least twice, so if he comes back, I think he could be a threat, he did not get a real chance to run, but hopefully his Derby debacle doesn’t curb his enthusiasm, he had a really tough go.  Bodemeister ran great, but I think the derby took alot out of him or so it seemed at the finish line, he was on empty, and while he ran his guts out, tired is tired.  Not sure he will have the reserves to run like that again in such a short period of time and IHA can certainly stalk him again.  For Gutierrez, I think the Derby gave him better insight on his own horse and the others style of racing, and his ride will be more precise come Preakness day.  Not sure why everyone wants to discredit IHA’s win.  He looked relatively fresh at the end, ears up, relaxed, content, not over worked or stressed.  He seems to like Gutierrez and his riding style, and he is happy to rate and relax where others were not.  I think he will put on a great show and has a real chance at the second leg.

  • Frank

    The way the Churchill track was playing on Saturday gave the West Coast horses a huge edge.  There was a speed bias all day long and the track was so fast a new 7F record was set.  Little doubt in a 20 horse field the closers are going to encounter traffic, but an extremely fast track makes any traffic/ trip issues more damaging.  CD played like a West Coast track on Saturday and those fast track splits worked to the detriment of the other horses.  The Preakness will be interesting as the Pimlico strip CAN’T be any faster than CD was last Saturday.  That said, I’m anticipating a much small field in Baltimore and expect to see the off the pace horses make a much better showing.  Both Dullahan and Went The Day Well should be even more dangerous.  Bodemeister would be better served to stay West as he will be done early in Baltimore after his CD performance

  • Terri Zeitz

    Sunshine I think you are right on both counts with Hansen. And I hope they give him a rest and change the jockey. I would love to see Union Rags with Rosie on board and maybe he needs some time off after the Derby.

  • Jimculpepper

    Once again, the willingness of the mounts to follow their training and thus,  do what their riders ask,  was as significant as speed and condition of horse or track. How many extra lengths toward the wire would I’ll have Another, Creative Cause, and Dullahan have been If the winner had not blown the stretch turn?  Obviously, Bodemeister cannot read, or he would have known that he was a mere speed merchant miler, rather than a superb router who has not yet learned to rate, and Hansen may well prove to be a routing rabbit also, given the same discipline

  • Jimculpepper

    I should have closed my comment by asking, can you imagine this Ky Derby with the first four colts in a cavalry chage at the wire?

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