DeRosa: Futures bet not the greatest strategy, but it is fun

by | 02.09.2012 | 7:07am
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The first of three pools for the Kentucky Derby Future Wager launches Friday with “All Others” as a 9-5 choice and Algorithms and Union Rags opening at 8-1 and 10-1 respectively as the lowest-odds individual horses.  At the Twinspires.com blog, Ed DeRosa says he’s always liked futures bets, even though they not be sound betting strategy in most cases:

“Because of the vagaries of variance, I don’t see these as prime win bet opportunities. Tying my capital up for 12 weeks on a bet that I figure has a 5% chance of cashing is not a long-term strategy because the opportunities don’t present themselves enough to A) make up for the times I’m wrong, and B) make up for the times I’m right but still lose (95% of the time!).”

“But it IS fun to have a horse in the gate at high(er) odds and to brag to friends, colleagues, Roman, countrymen, etc. “I got him at 40-to-1.”

“The wagering is always interesting because of the gamesmanship that occurs with the heavy betting on the mutuel field, but I typically only look to play horses who are 40-to-1 or better. If Creative Cause gets ignored and is somehow 20-to-1 I’d probably plunge on him but otherwise I’m looking for > 40-to-1 on Dullahan, Junebugred, Longview Drive, Midnight Transfer, or Take Charge Indy.”

» Read more at Twinspires.com
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  • Damon Runyon

    In other words, keep your money in your pocket and make your real Kentucky Derby wagers on Kentucky Derby Day.

  • horse

    Truly, a fictional account of the Derby reality.

  • precisionist

    Poor value 1-20. If interested at all = get down in Vegas when all are still 2 yr olds

  • Tinky

    I’d simply like to point out that your namesake was one of the most outstanding American racehorses of the past 30 years. Most won’t have vivid recollections, but what a horse!

  • Ray Manley

    I was at the Big A the day Precisionist won the Breeders Cup Sprint.  What a horse he was indeed.  Reserved seats were just $1.50.  For years and years NYRA charged only a buck and a half for reserved seats regardless of what stakes were on the card.

    Getting back to the Derby Futures bet, it is ridiculous why we do not have a Derby futures pari-mutuel pool with all horses nominated to the triple crown.  The pool could be a weekly one and a chunk of the take could go to a fund for retired race horses.

  • John S.

    With the way the machines are set up, there is no reason that the Kentucky Derby Future wager couldn’t have every nominee available. Think of the explosive odds on some of the lesser-known horses! Having 20 horses and the field just doesn’t really interest me. Have 300-plus unique horses to play, and brother, I’m in.

  • FourCats

    I fully agree.  Additionally, a real Kentucky Derby future wager with all of the nominees as individual wagers would provide tremendous PR for both the industry and the race (not to mention a huge wagering pool).  It would probably also be followed by the non-racing press.  It’s incomprehensible to me why those in charge of this wager (presumably Churchill Downs management) have not actively done this.  (And, as a 25-year software developer, the argument given that it can’t be handled by the computer systems is completely bogus.)

    I will not play the current Future wager.  I’d much rather save any wagering funds for the actual race.

  • The_Knight_Sky

    Churchill Downs Futures Wager a good idea – but still untapped.

    How difficult it is to program 300 horses into the system?
    Or a 300 x 300 exacta matrix that can produce life-changing scores.

    As it stands Churchill Downs is mere content with taking three cuts of the parimutuel pie which is stagnant and fails to entice the wagering public.

  • Countfleet43

    Sorry Fellows, But I’m going to gamble, as I am way ahead. In February,(2006), 2 X-Jocks & I went to visit Michael Matz, Peter Brette & “Barbaro”, who was in his stall turned away from us & when he turned around, Honestly I can say that in well over 50 years of owning & Handicapping thoroughbreds, I had never seen one as classy& regal as Barbaro was that day & the next, when he won his first race, (Holy Bull)-Grade 3, on the dirt,(very Muddy track), his 4th out of four,( all won very-very easy). When I returned home, (Clearwater), I went to my Computer & Bet the $400 that I won, betting on “Barbaro” winning the (Holy Bull). I got 19-1 Odds in the Future Derby-First Pool wager.
    You Know the rest of the story, He didn’t get lucky as he won Derby with ease. I got Lucky…GOD only knows how good he could have been. Thank You dear “Barbaro” & may you rest in peace.
    Yes, I will bet my FEW $$$ in the first Round & dream again for another SUPER horse. GLTA.
    Clearwater Charlie
    P.S…Damon Runyon, what a Sports Writer he was. No one like him these days.

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