Posts Tagged ‘yearling sales’

AMERICAN GRADED STAKES STANDINGS brought to you by Keeneland: SLEUTHING THE SALES

Thursday, September 10th, 2009

By Ray Paulick
Keeneland’s September yearling sale is the largest auction of its kind in the world, serving as a marketplace for all levels of participants in the Thoroughbred industry, from the rich and famous who fly into Lexington in their private jets for the early select sessions to the blue-collar horsemen who pull a two-horse trailer into town behind their pickup trucks at the tail end of the marathon sale.

This year’s 14-day Keeneland September sale begins on Monday, Sept. 14 and runs through Sept. 28. Friday, Sept. 18 is a dark day. There are over 5,000 yearlings catalogued to this year’s sale.

Because it is the largest Thoroughbred yearling sale in the world, it should come as no surprise that the Keeneland September sale has more of its graduates win American Graded Stakes than any other auction. The Keeneland September sale has produced 66 AGS winners of 2009, five times as many as any other Thoroughbred auction. It accounts for 38.4% of the 172 AGS winners of 2009 that were sold at public auction. (The figures represent only those horses that sold and do not include RNAs.)

The most surprising thing to me about the Keeneland September graduates that went on to win an AGS race in 2009 is the number of horses that sold for relatively low prices. Unbridled Belle, winner of the Grade 3 Obeah Stakes at Delaware Park, was the biggest bargain, selling for $4,000 at the 2004 Keeneland September sale. Zensational, winner of three consecutive Grade 1 races and the likely favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, was a $20,000 yearling purchase. A total of 20 AGS winners of 2009 brought prices of $50,000 or less at the Keeneland September sale. At the other end of the spectrum is the $3.9 million Storm Cat colt, Mr. Sidney, who won the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile at Keeneland this spring.

The 66 AGS winners that sold at Keeneland September had an average price of $254,621 and a median of $115,000.

Because it serves as a marketplace for such a wide range of yearlings in terms of the quality of their pedigrees, the percentage of Keeneland September graduates that win an AGS race is lower than that of some other Thoroughbred auctions. Since the AGS winners of 2009 sold in different years, we’ll arbitrarily use 2007 as a benchmark for calculating the percentage (the same year was applied to consignors of sale horses in last week’s American Graded Stakes Standings brought to you by Keeneland). There were 3,799 yearlings sold at the 2007 Keeneland September sale, and the 66 AGS winners that were bought at a Keeneland September auction represent 1.7% of that figure.

By comparison, Fasig-Tipton’s select sales in Kentucky in July and at Saratoga in August, which select yearlings based on pedigree and conformation, had 3.3% and 7.0% AGS winners of 2009, respectively, using the number sold in 2007. The average price of FT July’s 12 AGS winners of 2009 was $141,500 and the median was $150,000. FT Saratoga select has produced 10 AGS winners of 2009; their average sale price was $431,000 and median was $330,000.

The Keeneland November breeding stock sale has had 12 of its graduates (10 weanlings, two horses of racing age) win AGS races in 2009. Their average was $415,083, buoyed by the world record price $1.7-million weanling, Mi Sueno (winner of the Grade 1 Darley Debutante last week), and the $2.4 million Mushka, who sold as a 3-year-old at last year’s Keeneland November sale. The median price of the 12 AGS winners sold at Keeneland November was $79,500.

Rounding out the auctions that have produced the most 2009 AGS winners are a pair of 2-year-old sales, Fasig-Tipton’s Midlantic May sale and the OBS March sale, with eight each. FT Midlantic’s eight AGS winners sold for an average price of $130,125 and median of $92,500, and the eight OBS March AGS winners sold for an average of $256,875 and median of $260,000. Using the number of 2-year-olds sold at their 2007 sales, the FT Midlantic AGS winners represent 2.3% of the number sold and the OBS March winners 3.2%.

 

FASIG-TIPTON LEARNS AN IMPORTANT LESSON

Thursday, April 2nd, 2009
By Ray Paulick

March 11, 2009: Fasig-Tipton cancels its fall yearling sale, scheduled to begin Oct. 26.

April 1, 2009: Fasig-Tipton reinstates the fall yearling sale.

What they said then: “A sale should be viable for consignors, buyers and lastly for the sales company. The feedback we are getting from our constituents indicated this was not the case of the October yearling sale. This was also the majority position at our advisory board meeting in early March.” – Dan Pride, Fasig-Tipton’s chief operating officer.

What they are saying now: “Responding to input from several October consignors and buyers, Fasig-Tipton has reinstated its Kentucky fall yearling sale, which will be held at Newtown Paddocks, Lexington, on Oct. 26, 27 and 28.” – Fasig-Tipton press release

“We certainly value the feedback that our customers shared with us. One of the main goals of the company will always be to listen and react to what is important for our customers.” – Fasig-Tipton chairman Walt Robertson.

So what happened in the three weeks between the time the sale was cancelled because “constituents” said it was not viable and it was reinstated because of feedback from buyers and consignors? Who were those “constituents” polled about the original decision to cancel?

Fasig-Tipton, under its new ownership and a retooled management team (the addition of Dan Pride is the main difference), wants to focus on the auctions that bring in the most money: the 2-year-olds in training sale held recently at Calder, the Saratoga August yearling sale, and the November mixed sale. The Dubai-based owners are investing significant money on capital improvements and marketing to that end. However, the company cannot risk alienating some of the bread-and-butter consignors who have been loyal to the July and October Kentucky yearling sales, which may not be as glamorous or profitable but are an important marketplace for breeders.

By cancelling the October sale, Fasig-Tipton was shooing breeders of more than 1,000 horses over to the other side of town to the tail end of Keeneland’s September yearling sale or forcing them to incur shipping expenses by offering them at the Fasig-Tipton Eastern fall sale in Maryland. Neither was a positive public relations outcome for Fasig-Tipton.

The flawed decision sounded awfully similar to what happened in December when the Breeders’ Cup board outraged many breeders with a decision to cut out the stakes supplements that have been part of the Breeders’ Cup program from the outset. That decision was reversed in a matter of days. This one took a few weeks for the complaints to percolate high enough to get the attention of Fasig-Tipton’s management team. Both decisions smacked of elitism, suggesting not enough attention was paid to the grass roots or “blue collar” breeders who don’t get elected to boards of directors. Both reversals were justified and proper.

Lessons learned.

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

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STUD FEES: PENDULUM SWINGS TOWARD BREEDERS

Friday, December 12th, 2008

By Ray Paulick

Thursday’s announcement by Walmac Farm of a “breeders stimulus plan” that allows breeders to pay 2009 stud fees from the proceeds of the sale of weanlings or yearlings is further proof that an increasing number of Kentucky’s stallion farms are recognizing mare owners as partners in their business. The steep declines in bloodstock prices in 2008 and the very real threat that many breeders could go out of business if the economics do not change has led virtually every major stallion station to reduce 2009 stud fees and relax deadlines for when the payments are due.

In the most simple terms, without mare owners, stallion farms would have no customers. If stud fees were not reduced and payment schedules relaxed, there would be fewer breeders around for the 2009 breeding season. The changes were fueled by a survival instinct.

There are only a handful of stallion farms continuing what in recent years was the widely accepted policy of stud fees due in September or November of the year of conception. Even some of those holdout farms are showing flexibility on payment schedules. Most stallion operations have changed to a payable when foal stands and nurses program; some in that category offer discounts for breeders who are willing to pay stud fees early. Although the stands and nurses policy has been in place for years at some farms, a number of breeders pointed to the decision by Lane’s End to adopt that policy for 2009 as a bellwether move. Others quickly followed suit.

Two relatively new stallion stations, Darley and Stonewall Farm, have created unique incentive programs for many of their stallions. Some farms that reduced 2009 stud fees in September during the Keeneland yearling sale have come back with a second round of fee reductions because bookings were coming in at an alarmingly slow pace.

“Changing from payable on Sept. 1 to out of proceeds is a huge difference,” one breeder told the Paulick Report. “It gives a breeder two years of the use of his money. It should be the universal policy. It gives breeders the chance to stay in business. And let’s face it, the stallion farms need us. I guess you’ve got to really worry when stallion farms are hit; they’ve been in total control.”

“All the stallion managers announcing reduced fees want to be seen as benefactors,” said breeder Garrett Redmond. “In fact, they are trying to preserve their own business. Mare owners will be short of money next year because their 2008 sales were for less than needed or horses were not sold at all.  They need help to pay fees due when foals stand and nurse in 2009.  Reduction in fees due in spring 2010 will not help.”

“There’s a tendency to think the stallion guys took it to us for a long, long time and we overpaid, and we get even now,” said breeder Craig Bandoroff of Denali Stud. “That’s not totally fair. It’s a market economy ruled by supply and demand. I love the idea of stands and nurses, but if you want to pay on Nov. 1 you get a discount. That’s the best deal going. Payable Sept. 1 was terrible; you hadn’t sold your yearlings yet.”

“The pendulum is definitely swinging back from stallion farms to the mare owner,” said Olin Gentry of Gaines-Gentry Thoroughbreds. “Popularity and demand has allowed some farms to get away with Sept. 1, but there’s more and more pressure to give stands and nurses. There aren’t many holdouts.”

One farm staying with a Sept. 1 policy on some of its stallions is Airdrie Stud. “We believe that everybody has the right and should have the opportunity to set their stud fees according to the way they are the fairest relative to the product they are selling,” said owner Brereton Jones. “We raised Indian Charlie’s fee 50% and he’s already booked full; his fee is due Sept. 1.”

Jones said some other fees will be due at time of foaling. “We work with each breeder who calls in here, and it depends on the stallion they want to breed to; it’s the free enterprise system at its best. We’ll discuss packages with anybody; if someone wants to breed three mares to a stallion, we will work out an arrangement. I think the general attitude of breeders is that Airdrie’s fees have always been extremely fair, and consequently they’ve been successful.”

The key to Airdrie’s fees and schedule, Jones said, is flexibility. “Our policy is geared to the success of both the owners of the stallion and the owners of the mares.”

Darley set all stallion contracts for stands and nurses when it was established at the former Jonabell Farm Sheikh Mohammed purchased in 2001. In 2007, the farm introduced pay from proceeds fees that stallion nominations manager Charlie Boden said is actually a “pay when you sell with forgiveness” policy. “We try to assess the risk on the front end,” Boden said, “but if we’re wrong and the resulting offspring brings half the stud fee, we don’t bill them for the difference.” The policy was introduced a few years earlier at Darley’s stallion operation in England.

“We’re trying to help breeders make a prudent decision in not overbreeding a mare,” Boden said. “It makes more sense to people these days. I think the days of overbreeding mares should be screeching to a halt unless the stallion is overpriced.”

Darley’s policy lets breeders decide whether to pay from proceeds of a weanling or yearling sale. Not all stallions are eligible for the program; Boden said he tries to limit it to stallions standing for $20,000 or less.

Boden also said Darley has offered what he calls a “Grade 1 club” on certain stallions, giving a free season to mares that were Grade 1 winners or Grade 1 producers.

In light of Sheikh Mohammed’s enormous wealth, Boden was asked if these policies were designed to put the squeeze on competing stallion farms. “Sheikh Mohammed wants breeders to make money,” Boden said. “He wants the business to thrive. He’s a fan of the sport and the industry as a whole. He’s not trying to put anyone else out of business. He’s trying to help a breeder raise a top horse at a competitive price. His goal is to perpetuate an industry that he loves.”

Stonewall Farm’s first breeding season was 2006, and in order to make a splash in the industry it adopted several creative incentive plans for breeders. One offered free seasons (for stallions the farm owns wholly) to graded stakes-winning or graded stakes-producing mares. Another provides a free return season to stallions for mares that produced a stakes winner from that stallion. A third policy permits a breeder to come back for a free mating for a mare if it produced a top three weanling price for that sire.

In an effort to reach out to some of the lucrative state incentive programs, Stonewall is now offering a complimentary no-guarantee season for approved mares that will foal in Louisiana, New York or Pennsylvania, in exchange for being named co-breeder (the mare owner would remain the full owner of the foal). By so doing, Stonewall would be eligible for half of the breeders awards in those states.

The programs evolved from Stonewall’s owner, Audrey Haisfield, and her husband, Richard, according to Clark Shepherd, a Stonewall manager and pedigree analyst. “They looked at how things were done in the business and decided it didn’t have to be that way,” he said. “We’ve since seen a lot of other outfits begin to follow suit.”

Will the innovative policies, fee reductions and relaxed payment schedules be enough to help breeders return to profitability?

There seems to be no consensus on that question.

“In the face of the financial crisis, a lot of syndicate managers might be a little too dramatic in fee reductions,” said Olin Gentry, “particularly some of the ones that announced a second round of cuts. People are going to breed their mares; they’re just coming in slower because they are tentative, waiting to see if there are going to be more reductions.

“It’s all a cycle. If you put pressure on stallion values, what people are willing to pay for yearlings is affected. You need a happy medium where it’s fair. You don’t want the stallion owners to make all the money and you don’t want it too easy for the breeder. “

Garrett Redmond disagreed. “Owners can avoid a problem in 2010 by not breeding in 2009,” he said. “If stallion managers are serious about helping, they should retroactively reduce the fees contracted in 2008. The least they can do is change the fees coming due to the fees they are advertising for 2009.  They might also convert contracts to foal shares or pay when you sell.”


“The one thing you are seeing is no matter what the advertised stud fee is, your client wants to know, ‘Can we do better?’” said Bandoroff.

Another breeder boiled it down to a simple good news/bad news scenario.

"The good news is prices are down for stallions," he said. "The bad news is it shows what deep shit we are in."

(Note to readers: Take our poll on how stallion farms have reacted in the face of the economic crisis and falling bloodstock prices. The Daily Paulick Poll can be found on the left-hand column of the Paulick Report home page.)

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

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MARKET CRISIS HITS THE HORSE BUSINESS

Tuesday, September 23rd, 2008
By Ray Paulick

While Congress begins deliberations on the proposed economic bailout package that could cost taxpayers as much as $1 trillion, Thoroughbred owners and breeders are beginning to feel the effects of the turbulence on Wall Street and other world markets.

The financial markets meltdown came smack dab in the middle of the industry’s most important transactional event: the Keeneland September yearling sale. The sale began with a lowered price ceiling during opening select sessions that saw some resilience in the middle market, but, as many consignors feared, the bottom fell out after the first week. Most yearlings going through the ring in the latter part of the Keeneland sale will reflect economic losses to their owners once stud fees, mare investment  and boarding costs are taken into consideration.

But those losses are minor compared to what’s happened on Wall Street, which traditionally has created much of the wealth that’s found its way into the yearling market. “If anyone is dependent on new money in the horse business, I don’t think this is going to be a very good time for them,” one business analyst told the Paulick Report.

In addition, many yearling-to-juvenile sale pinhookers from Florida depend on bank loans to fund at least a portion of their investment, and those loans or lines of credit from banks are evaporating in the current crisis that actually began last August with the sub-prime mortgage fiasco.

Loans of all kinds will be more difficult to acquire, one banker told the Paulick Report, whether it’s for pin-hooking, stallion and mare acquisitions, or real estate. “A wide range of people need bank financing to buy farms or mares,” he said. “Some people who didn’t start off thinking they wanted to borrow end up taking out loans just like any other business often does. Stallion deals are often supported by banks. No matter what you are borrowing money for, it’s harder now and it will cost more. Everything is going to be more difficult.”

In addition, the banker said, many businesses with “standing operating lines of credit” are going to feel the crunch. “There are acquisitional and seasonal businesses. Some spend money all year and collect over just a couple of weeks. Stallion or mare purchases term out over a number of years.”

The crisis could have a severe effect on the bloodstock markets at Fasig-Tipton and Keeneland in October and November, especially for mares in the $50,000 and under price range. It is expected the top end of the market, which is unlikely to establish any new records for high prices, will maintain some semblence of strength. The deadline to enter mares and weanlings in Keeneland’s massive November breeding stock sale preceded the financial market meltdown. What will be interesting to follow is the number of horses entered for Keeneland’s January sale of horses of all ages. Will breeders look ahead at cutting their losses on marginal mares and newly turned yearlings?

The credit tightening comes as uninsured money market funds have disappeared into treasury bills and other secured investments. Banks that were counting on money market dollars to buy up bonds, mortgages and other loans now require cash on hand to extend credit to their customers. That cash, in many institutions, simply doesn’t exist in abundance.

“Things that have some value in the real world, like real estate loans, have no value in the market,” one analyst said. “Assets that used to be like cash no longer are like cash.”

Many in the horse business are watching how the crisis is affecting the financially troubled Magna Entertainment (MECA)  and its real estate affiliate, MI Developments (MID). Magna Entertainment is the racetrack operating company that is living month to month on bridge loans from MID and other creditors. Magna, controlled by Frank Stronach, owns Santa Anita Park (host of the 2008 and 2009 Breeders’ Cup) and Golden Gate Fields in California, Gulfstream Park in Florida, Pimlico and Laurel Park in Maryland, Lone Star Park in Texas, and Remington Park in Oklahoma, and several smaller tracks. Its stock, battered in recent years and recently the subject of a 1-for-20 reverse split to retain its listing on the exchange, has declined by 25% in the last five trading days, closing Monday at $4.39 per share.

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

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