Posts Tagged ‘well armed’

Gaines responded: "It’s his opinion. Everybody watched Charlie Whittingham and Bobby Frankel. He says what he thinks. That’s OK. He just better never be in a race with me. I might have to beat him."

Todd Pletcher provided his observation: "I don’t think there’s anything that indicates that you have to be a man or a woman to train horses effectively. Either one is perfectly capable." Lukas capped off the piece by saying that it’s all about winning. If you win, you’ll get more and better horses.

1:00 p.m. … ABC is on the air, with their 2 1/2 hours of coverage. It switches to ESPN at 3:30 p.m., which continues to baffle some people. It’s really not that hard to switch channnels. It happens in golf and other sports quite frequently. Good intro on the Breeders’ Cup narrated by the incomparable Bill Nack, the former senior writer for Sports Illustrated who is serving as essayist on the Breeders’ Cup telecasts.

1:05 p.m. …  "This is our grand stage for horse racing," says Jerry Bailey. "A great performance here cements your reputation for an entire career. This is the kind of day that I live for, baby." Moss points out that the Europeans were shut out but says "they’ve got a lot of bullets." Moss also gives a "hip, hip, hooray" to the fact that this is the first steroids-free Breeders’ Cup.

1:06 p.m. … A run-through of the six reporters working the telecast was mostly forgettable except for Caton Bredar, who will be reporting via horseback on the Pro-Ride surface, which heats up from the sun. "I’ll have the hottest seat in the house," she proclaims. Caton, I’ll leave that up to chauvinist pig Rick Dutrow to decide.

1:10 p.m. … Come on! We’re only 10 minutes into the broadcast and they’re already recycling some of the features from yesterday’s ESPN2 show? They’re doing that dollar comparison between the Breeders’ Cup and other major sporting events. But they’re loading into the gate now for the Marathon.

1:15 p.m. … 49-1 longshot Booyah takes the early lead, and the field is strung out as if in a harness race. Midway down the backstretch, Zappa takes over, but it’s a short lived lead. Muhannak has clear sailing on the outside and moves to the front, while the heavy favorite Sixties Icon has to check while awaiting room before straightening away into the stretch. Trained by Ralph (pronounced Rayfe) Beckett and ridden by Patrick Smullen, Muhannak breaks through for the Europeans, holding off a fast-closing Church Service to win it. Big Booster is third, with Delightful Kiss fourth. Sixties Icon and Zappa both came up empty in the stretch. Muhannak,  a 4-year-old gelding by Chester House bred in Ireland by Mount Coote Stud,  races for Richard Pegum. Though this was his U.S. debut, Muhannak has plenty of synthetic track experience in England and is a perfect 3-for-3 since joining trainer Beckett’s barn.

Marathon prices: $26.80 on a $2 win bet, and the $1 exotics paid: $133.10 for the exacta, $987.10 for the trifecta, and $3,955 for the superfecta. Time for the 1 1/2 miles on the Pro-Ride track was 2:28.24. Chart.

1:25 p.m. … The Turf Sprint is the race where I absolutely love the filly, Only Answer, from Andre Fabre’s stable. She is not getting any early action and is 18-1 on the board. The one horse getting bet below its morning line is course specialist California Flag, down from 15-1 morning line to 8-1.

1:45 p.m. … Aaron Gryder’s jockey introductions are actually pretty clever. Loved the comment about Kendrick Carmouche, the son of the famous "fog jockey," Sylvester Carmouche, who hid in a fog bank at a Louisiana bull ring track and came rushing out of the fog with a huge lead when the field turned for home. He got caught.  "He won’t be able to play that same trick his dad did," Gryder said. "This is sunny California, and he can’t hide in the fog."

1:50 p.m. … I’ve decided to wheel and backwheel Only Answer in the exactas and box her with Fleeting Spirit, Diabolical and California Flag in the trifecta. I’m not usually a gimmick player, but I smell a big payoff for someone here.

1:53 p.m. … Mr. Nightlinger sets the face pace with betdown California Flag pushing him, but the speed doesn’t last in here. Richard Migliore gets the last run with the longest shot on the board, Desert Code at 36-1, who runs down Diabolical in the final yards to win it. Storm Treasure is third and Fleeting Spirit fourth. Desert Code won on this course during the winter meeting, taking the ungraded Joe Hernandez Stakes but most recently finished seventh in the Morvich Handicap in a race he needed. "I tried to anticipate being a little bit closer (to the pace)," Migliore tells Jerry Bailey after the race. Desert Code ’s near the back of the back entering the stretch, but Migliore saved ground crossing the Pro-Ride surface before finding a seam on the outside at about the eighth pole.  It’s a very popular win for horsemen and racing fans in New York, who have always appreciated Migliore’s class as much as his riding skills. Underrated conditioner Dave Hofmans trains the 4-year-old son of E Dubai for the Tarabilla Farms. "The horse was training super, and he loves this downhill course," Hofmans said. 

I was right about one thing: big payoffs. Desert Code paid $75 to win; the $1 exacta paid $393.10, the tri was $6,184.50 and the superfecta was $29,663.30. My selection, Only Answer was mired near the back of the pack after breaking well and was never a factor. Chart.

2:10 p.m. … Sometimes it’s hard to tell if it’s a bet down or a bad morning line. Pyro was 20-1 on the morning line and is now at 7-1. Probably a little of both. Well Armed is the heavy favorite in the Dirt Mile, getting bet down from his 3-1 morning line to 6-5.

2:15 p.m. … Kenny Mayne repeats an interesting comment from Aaron Gryder, the rider of Well Armed, whose comeback from a near-death experience was prominently played up in the telecast, with all the credit going to owner Bill Casner. "My horse has a better chance of winning today than Curlin has in the Classic," Gryder is said to have told the ESPN crew. At 6-5 odds, you have to wonder how many other people Gryder told. After two longshot winners, you might expect to see a return to predictability here. Well Armed is my pick, but I think Surf Cat is capable of pulling off an upset, and he’s a big overlay, at 13-1. Mast Track is another huge price, 18-1, up from 6-1 on the morning line, but that’s probably due to the cloud over his physical condition. Trainer and owner Bobby Frankel said he was very unlikely to run earlier in the week because of a quarter crack. He wouldn’t run him if he wasn’t sound, in my opinion, so that makes Mast Track an interesting possibility here, too. I can’t take 6-5 on Well Armed.

2:30 p.m. … ABC’s "historical milestones" feature is a good one, taking us back to 1984 and through the years of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships. The musical accompaniment was fun, including references to the artist formerly known as Prince. Did I just hear crusty ol’ Bruce Headley say he loves Prince’s "When Doves Cry"? 

Oh, for the love of God … more interviews with Michael Iavarone. Now he’s telling Kenny Mayne about the death threat he received before the Belmont from someone in Tallahassee, Fla.  Is that why he has that big bodyguard following him around? ESPN tried to contact the deputy that worked the case and they couldn’t get  ahold of him? Is that Kenny Mayne’s way of saying he doesn’t believe Iavarone’s story?

2:35 p.m. … More boxcar prices. Albertus Maximus, getting a dream ride from Garrett Gomez, collars pacesetter Two Step Salsa to win the Dirt Mile over Rebellion, with Two Step Salsa hanging on for third and My Pal Charlie fourth. Well Armed never looked comfortable and was not a factor. Gryder had some trouble with Well Armed on the first turn, but it wasn’t enough to take him out of contention. He wound up ninth. Mast Track was fifth and Surf Cat 12th. They covered the mile on the fast Pro-Ride track in 1:33.41.

The winner is a 4-year-old son of Albert the Great bred and owned by Brandon and Marianne Chase and trained by Vladimir Cerin. He’s been placed in some big races (third in the Goodwood, second in the 2007 Swaps Stakes), but this is his first graded stakes victory. Albertus Maximus had been trained by Gary Mandella until the owners moved him to Cerin’s barn prior to a Sept. 1 ungraded stakes victory at Del Mar. "I just felt the horse was going backwards and we all knew the horse had talent," Marianne Chase said in the winner’s circle. "We all believed in this horse, and finally the moment of truth came, we turned him over to Vladimir and he’s done just absolute miracles."

Mutuels: Albertus Maximus paid $14.60 to win, the exacta was $109.30; trifecta $1,636; and superfecta $19,804.30. Somebody’s making money! Chart.
 
2:55 p.m. … Another Joe Torre interview. He and Michael Iavarone are going head and head for the most over-exposed people on the two days of racing telecasts. (He also did a trophy presentation, something Iavarone hasn’t done yet.) But maybe Iavarone will be able to win the Mile trophy again this year with Kip Deville.

3:05 p.m. … Time for chalk? Goldikova is the solid betting favorite here and a favorite is due to win after four longshots. She looks splendid on the track. Lots of chuckles on the set when Randy Moss repeats the tiresome line from Rick Dutrow about defending champ Kip Deville. Dutrow’s biggest concern is wondering how much to bet. Nick Luck, the guy with the accent and the great racetrack name, says something very intelligent about the Mile, though I’m not sure what it was exactly. But he sounded so smooooth saying it. Geek alert. Best place for geeks at Santa Anita is directly behind Kenny Mayne and Hank Goldberg. Get on the cell phone and call someone who cares to say that you’re on TV. Hank’s going for the 4-11 exacta, Goldikova and Whatsthescript. Sorry, Hank, can’t see the 11 hole getting up for second on this course. I like Goldikova and Shakis from the rail for second.

3:15 p.m. … Jeannine Edwards with Rick Dutrow, who takes us on a romantic journey down memory lane,.. "I’ve been up and down. We’re pretty used to this sort of thing," he nonchalants. I can almost here Sinatra…."That’s life, that’s what people say, riding high in April, shot down in May." 

3:18 p.m. … As they load, Trevor Denman points out how light a filly Goldikova is.Well, all I can say is, "Rick, I hope you bet to place." Goldikova was everything promised, and more. It was a simply brilliant performance and a flawless ride by Olivier Peslier, putting the daughter of Anabaa in a good spot just behind the pacesetting Thorn Song, and then driving through a narrow opening in midstretch with incredible acceleration. Freddie Head was a great jockey and he is proving to be just as good a trainer — the first to both ride and train a Breeders’ Cup winner (he handled two-time Mile winner Miesque). Of course, he has the pedigree. Kip Deville ran his race, but was only second best. Whatsthescript made a good late run to get third, with Precious Kitten fourth. This was a "wow" performance, the kind that wlil linger in the mind for years to come. "I think she’s as good as her," Head said in comparing Goldikova to Miesque. "She’s definitely in the same league."

Mutuels: $5.60 was the win price on Goldikova, with $13.60 on the exacta, $47.60 on the trifecta and $302.20 on the superfecta. Chart.

3:29 p.m. … OK, everyone, grab the remote control and switch over to ESPN from ABC.

3:30 p.m. … Yesterday I indicated that Forever Together likely cinched an Eclipse Award as filly and mare turf champion. Now I’m not sure so. It was just one performance, but Goldikova is the best distaffer to race on North American turf this year, in my opinion, and deserves consideration as a North American champion. Her European races don’t count, but what a career she’s had, winning six of nine starts and never finishing worse than third.

3:35 p.m. … On to the Juvenile, where Munnings is being ignored by the bettors. He’s at 9-1 off a 7-2 morning line. The horse with some action is Square Eddie, the recent acquisition by Paul Reddam who won the Breeders’ Futurity in his only U.S. start. At 9-2 on the morning line, he’s currently the 5-2 choice. Jay Privman reports that trainer Todd Pletcher is scratching his head over what tactics to have jockey John Velazquez employ on Munnings. He may be the only speed in the race, but speed has not been holding on very well on the Pro-Ride track. I look for a slow pace in this one, but I can’t see Munnings being very far from the front early.

3:53 p.m. … This tidbit from a Privman interview with Paul Reddam. Square Eddie’s trainer, Doug O’Neill, is home with the chicken pox.

3:59 p.m. …  Square Eddie and Midshipman duel for the early lead in the Juvenile, the opening quarter in :23.55 and half in :47.08. Munnings took back, and Midshipman never looked back. Garrett Gomez gets another win and Bob Baffert  possibly has another Kentucky Derby contender and his sixth Breeders’ Cup winner. This is the colt that was bred and owned by Bob and Janice McNair’s Stonerside Stable until they sold their operation — farm and horses — to Sheikh Mohammed. Midshipman was part of the package. "I’ve always wanted to train for Sheikh Mo," Baffert said at the time. It remains to be seen whether or not the horse stays with Baffert, however, as the Sheikh has been known to bring his American 2-year-olds to Dubai. Square Eddie was second best, just ahead of Street Hero in third and Terrain in fourth. Munnings got a good trip from there but flattened out after rallying wide into the stretch and finished 10th. Coolmore’s Bushranger, in from Europe, was 11th. Ooops. The camera trained in on Baffert and wife Jill celebrating as Midshipman crossed the wire in front, but Randy Moss said "that’s actually not Jill."  Actually, Randy, it was. "It’s good to win one for Darley," Baffert said, "but to the McNairs, great job."

Mutuels: Midshipman paid $9.20 to win; exacta $19.70, trifecta $72.20, and trifecta $736.70. This race shows that you can win on the lead if the fractions are realistic. Chart.

4:10 p.m. … John Ferguson accepts the trophy for the ruler of Dubai and defers to the missing sheikh when asked about Midshipman’s future. "Obviously that’s up to Sheikh Mohammed," he said, as Baffert listens intently over Ferguson’s shoulder. Might we see this horse in Dubai? Ferguson is asked. "Possibly." I couldn’t make out what Baffert said under his breath, after that response.

4:20 p.m. … The saddest part of the awful ESPN feature using "song girls" from the University of Southern California to cheer during a race was the fact the Santa Anita grandstand was completely empty when they were filmed. I have to remind myself that you can’t fill all six hours of a telecast with horse and races.

4:40 p.m. … You can’t keep Frankie Dettori down forever. He rode the hair off of Donativum to beat fellow European Westphalia in the Juvenile Turf,. Coronet of a Band finished third, with City Style fourth. Donativum, racing for Princess Haya of Jordan (married to Sheikh Mohammed), is a gelding by Cadeaux Genereux trained by John Gosden, who spent some time training in California in the ’80s and won the inaugural Breeders’ Cup Mile with the mare Royal Heroine at Hollywood Park in 1984.  Tough loss for Westphalia and the Coolmore team. "It’s great to come back to Santa Anita and win a Breeders’ Cup race," Gosden said. "It’s progressed well," Gosden said of the Breeders’ Cup since its inception in 1984, "and I think the development of the two days and the work that the Breeders’ Cup committees have done in creating what they have here at Santa Anita, for the two days of racing, the fillies yesterday were out of this world. It is just superb racing at the highest quality. To me it is the Northern Hemisphere championships. There is no other word for it."

Mutuels: $13.60 to win, with the exacta paying $23.60, the trifecta $152.90 and the superfecta $3,024.10. Chart.

Dettori’s flying dismount would have been panned by Olympic gymnastic judges. He didn’t exactly stick the landing.

4:55 p.m. … Good use of the telestrator by Bailey, who points out how jockeys Johnny Murtagh and Dettori  both went for the same narrow opening in midstretch. Murtagh got the first jump, but Dettori had the best horse.

5:15 p.m. … The Sprint field is ready to go. Midnight Lute is the big question mark here. So is Fatal Bullet, who was just overpowering in his last start at Turfway Park and is a synthetic track freak. But he’s not been facing this kind of competition.

5:20 p.m. …. So much for those questions. Both Midnight Lute and Fatal Bullet ran big, but the Baffert-trained Midnight Lute was just too good, overpowering Fatal Bullet in the final sixteenth to win going away, just as he did a year ago at Monmouth Park. This may be the best training job in Bob Baffert’s career. Midnight Lute has had just one race since last November, and that was a terrible effort in the Pat O’Brien Handicap at Del Mar in August. The horse had a hock injury and a quarter crack that Baffert had to fight and show patience, something that has never been his strong suit. Fatal Bullet ran big on the lead and was second best, with Street Boss and In Summation rallying for third and fourth, respectively. The six furlongs was run in a blazing 1:07.08.

This was Garrett Gomez’s fourth Breeders’ Cup win in two days and the second today for Baffert."I’ve never had a horse like this. He’s just incredible," Baffert said. "He’s one of the best horses I’ve ever trained in my life. I’ve been bragging on this horse forever, but he showed today he is a great horse." The son of Real Quiet (who race for Midnight Lute’s co-owner Mike Pegram) has now now six of 13 starts over four years. At one time he was a Derby hopeful after breaking his maiden so impressively as a 2-year-old at Del Mar, but throat problems compromised him. Subsequent throat surgeries have helped.

Mutuels: Midnight Lute paid $7.40 to win; exacta was $23.80; trifecta $62.50; and superfecta $242.30. Chart.

5:40 p.m. … Nick Luck, the guy with the accent who specializes in European horses, uses a hunk of the Santa Anita turf to show why the track drains so well and is firm. It also might have something to do with the fact that it doesn’t rain in California for six months at a time, Nick. Anyways, Bailey, who mows his own lawn, said the big difference between turf courses in the East and in California is the length of the grass. They keep it much shorter out here, Bailey says, but that’s so golfer Gary Player can go out and work on his game while he’s visiting Santa Anita,.

5:42 p.m. … .ESPN feature on Mike Smith is a good one. Nobody doesn’t like Mikey, and it’s great to see him getting the good horses again. He works hard at his profession, and is a gentleman as well. Bailey says Smith is not only the fittest jockey in America, but one of the fittest athletes in the country. "He’s amazingly fit," Bailey says.

5:55 p.m. … At long last, John McCririck is on the air. He makes Hank Goldberg look small. McCririck thinks Soldier of Fortune is terribly underpriced in the Turf and Eagle Mountain is good value. Dare I say I agree with him? John is a cariacature, but he genuinely knows and loves the game. I’ve had the good pleasure of spending quality time with him over the years at many races and find him to be as knowledgable as they come on international racing.

6:08 p.m. … Michael Stoute had the truest "stayer" in the Turf, and he came flying down the stretch to snatch victory away from Eagle Mountain, who looked a certain winner as the field hit the top of the stretch. A 3-year-old coming off  a three-length victory in the 1 3/4-mile St. Leger Stakes at Doncaster, Conduit was ridden perfectly by Ryan Moore. it was Conduit’s fifth win in nine starts. Eagle Mountain sat just off the early pace in perfect position under Kevin Shea, overtook favorite Soldier of Fortune in midstretch, but was no match for the winner. Dancing Forever closed to get third from Soldier of Fortune.  "He’s raced on firm turf," Stoute told Jeannine Edwards when asked about what gave him confidence that Conduit could handle the firm going. "He’s a very clean and good-actioned horse. We had no qualms about the ground."

Mutuels: $13.60 to win; exacta paid $53.60, the trifecta $1,406.70 and the superfecta $5,622. Chart.

6:25 p.m. … For the first time all weekend, I’m nervous, with some butterflies swirling around in my stomach. I usually only get this way for the Kentucky Derby or when a horse is going for the Triple Crown at Belmont Park. That’s what sets the Classic apart from all the other races in the Breeders’ Cup, at least in my mind and in my gut. I can’t imagine how the owners of these horses must feel.

6:30 p.m. … Of the numerous features shown on this weekend or on any racing telecast for that matter, none has ever put a lump in my throat like the story done on Classic contender Colonel John and Karri Casner, the daughter of WinStar Farm co-owners Bill and Susan Casner who was killed in the terrorist bombings in Bali. It was tough to watch, but beautifully done and certainly put things in perspective.

6:40 p.m. … "It’s not really about the money, it’s about the competion," Jess Jackson tells Jeannine Edwards. He hasn’t been listening to Joe Tessitore, who must get $100 bucks every time he reminds viewers that this is richest event in all of sports. Randy Moss disses Steve Asmussen for not allowing ESPN to bring a camera inside the barn for 30 seconds. "Don’t you know who we are, pal? We’re the worldwide leader in sports!"

6:50 p.m. … ESPN reports there are 55,000 people at Santa Anita, including California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is shown giving Bo Derek a kiss on the cheek near the winner’s circle. The horses for the Classic are loading.

6:53 p.m. … Raven’s Pass wins the 25th Breeders’ Cup Classic by 1 3/4 lengths over Henrythenavigator, making this the first one-two European sweep ever in the race. Tiago gets up for third, and a gallant Curlin is fourth, after making a huge move on the turn and going to the lead at the top of the stretch. What a stretch run! Finally, one of my selections to beat the favorite pays off, and it was, as I suggested in my preview, a big day for the Euros. European-based horses won five of the nine races.

Complete order of finish: Raven’s Pass, Henrythenavigator, Tiago, Curlin, Go Between,  Colonel John, Smooth Air, Champs Elysees, Duke of Marmalade, Fairbanks, Student Council, and Casino Drive. Time was a very snappy 1:59.27.

It was the second win on the day for Gosden and Dettori, two of the best in the world at what they do. Casino Drive set the early fractions of :23.77 and :47.60, with prompting from Fairbanks, but neither was around when the real running began at the top of the stretch. "I was always in a spot where he needed to be I thought," said Robbie Albarado of Curlin. "I was content where I was. I had to go a little bit wider than I wanted to, but that’s Curlin. That’s his patented run." Albarado didn’t want to blame the synthetic surface for the defeat.  Steve Asmussen spoke off camera to Jeannine Edwards, saying, "It was a turf race, it wasn’t a dirt race. Horses can train well over the synthetic surface. It doesn’t mean they will run well over it. When he came by the first time and I saw that he was off the bridle, I got worried." Edwards said the Santa Anita crowd gave Curlin a standing ovation when he came back to be unsaddled. Bravo!

7:05 p.m. … Gosden, who spent 11 years training in the United States, tells Edwards: "He’s improved a lot through the year. He’s trained beautifully and he’s mentally relaxed more than ever. I felt the distance wouldn’t be a problem. His sire (Elusive Quality) was a very good miler, but Charlie Whittingham trained Lord At War, the broodmare sire. He won the Santa Anita Handicap at a mile and a quarter."

7:10 p.m. … Princess Haya, Sheikh Mohammed’s wife, had a better day than her husband, as the owner of Raven’s Pass, beating him 2-to-1. Raven’s Pass was bred by Robert and Janice McNair’s Stonerside Stable, which sold the colt earlier this year when Bob McNair opted to get out of racing and concentrate on his NFL football team, the Houston Texans.

Mutuels: Raven’s Pass paid $29 to win, with the exactga paying $150.50, the trifecta $2,395, the superfecta $10,236. Chart.

7:15 p.m. … Dettori’s enthusiasm is such a great asset for the game. He hasn’t always been the most pleasant fellow I’ve run across, but we all have our good and bad days. His love of the game comes through so well at moments like these, however, such as when he gives Bo Derek a big kiss and almost puts his lips on the camera lens He is a showman, one of the best in our business.

7:20 p.m. … In the trophy presentation in the winner’s circle, John Ferguson ignores Gov. Schwarzenegger’s demand to have Raven’s Pass return next year ("I’ll be back!")  and defend his title. Sorry, Arnie, but Sheikh Mohammed’s got a little more juice than you do, and he doesn’t have to listen to you.

7:25 p.m. … It takes a jockey to finally thank the Breeders’ Cup corporate sponsors. After the parade of owners receiving Breeders’ Cup trophies all ignored the various race sponsors, Garrett Gomez thanked "all the sponsors" when he received his Bill Shoemaker Award as the outstanding jockey for the third time in the last four years. It’s pretty standard operating procedure in other sports to have the participants thank the sponsors, but racing people are different.

7:30 p.m. … "The great thing about synthetic surfaces….they keep horses safer, and we saw that today," Randy Moss says at the end of the telecast after a brief discussion about how running the main track races on the Pro-Ride is going to be debated. "I wouldn’t hang my head if I was Curlin," Bailey said, who added that Zenyatta gets the edge from him over Curlin for Horse of the Year. Moss concurs, giving the nod to Zenyatta for her perfect record.

7:40 p.m. … Final thoughts.Santa Anita made for a spectacular setting on television, and the racing was equally good. In the last two days, we have seen some tremendous performances, especially by three fillies who stood out: Stardom Bound and Zenyatta on Friday and Goldikova on Saturday. The male horses that made the biggest impression in my mind today were Midnight Lute and Raven’s Pass. But the warrior who made this day so big going in was one who finished off the board: Curlin. He deserved the standing ovation from the Santa Anita patrons for the year he provided to us all in 2008, from Dubai to Kentucky to New York to California. In 16 lifetime starts, this was the first time that Curlin failed to finish in the top three. He’s the best we’ve seen in some time. 

The synthetic track will get credit for being a great equalizer for the Europeans, but let’s not forget that this was the first Breeders’ Cup where the American horses were not aided by anabolic steroids. That’s an even bigger equalizer, and perhaps the most significant change in all of the many changes that Breeders’ Cup officials have made in the last 12 months. It was long overdue, but a welcome change nonetheless.

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

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By Ray Paulick

Top to bottom, this may not be the most talented group of Breeders’ Cup horses that’s ever been assembled, but it’s the biggest handicapping challenge I can ever recall, especially considering new races like the Marathon, Turf Sprint, Dirt Mile and Juvenile Turf.

As mentioned yesterday, the Breeders’ Cup Web site has loads of good information, including race schedules and post times, wagering menu, free Equibase past performances, a useful wagering calculator, a list of simulcast locations and advice for beginners. You can bet the Breeders’ Cup races through any of the approved account wagering companies.

My handicapping philosophy is to beat the favorite whenever possible, since the average percentage of winning favorites is around 33%. You might discern from the following selections that I think the Europeans are going to have a big day on Saturday. The factors leading me to believe that will be true are 1) the synthetic surface that some Europeans train on; 2) the tighter medication rules that specifically ban anabolic steroids for the first time; 3) the quality of European horses being sent to this year’s event.

Here’s my advance prognostication on the day’s nine championship races. Good luck and safe racing to all.

Special note: please be sure to check back in to the Paulick Report, beginning around 3 p.m.  Eastern, for my live blog of Filly Friday. I’ll also be live blogging Saturday’s nine races, beginning at 1 p.m. Eastern.

Marathon
This looks like a two-horse race between European runner Sixties Icon and Zappa (whose namesake, the late rocker Frank Zappa, was the founder of the Mothers of Invention and was a real-life sixties icon).  That works for me, but it’s an all chalk exacta. I give the edge to Sixties Icon, in part because of jockey Frankie Dettori’s experience edge at mile and a half races. Zappa is sharp and may try to steal the race under Garrett Gomez. Muhannak has plenty of synthetic track experience in Europe and likes the distance. Cedar Mountain  will be closing late.

Selections: 1-Sixties Icon 2-Zappa 3-Muhannak 4- Cedar Mountain

Turf Sprint
One of the great things about the Breeders’ Cup is finding a horse you absolutely love and then discovering that it’s a longshot. That’s the case with Only Answer, a French-based filly in the care of the legendary horseman Andre Fabre, who is in top echelon of Breeders’ Cup trainers. I think she has an excellent chance to beat the boys in this spot, and Santa Anita’s ace morning line maker Jeff Tufts has her pegged at 20-1 on the morning line. Jockey Olivier Peslier, in my opinion, is as good a big-race rider as there is in the world, and he knows this filly well. The downhill turf course is a tricky one for horse and rider, with the run across the main track causing difficulty for some. It’s one of the best “horses for the course” plays in racing, which makes local runners California Flag and Get Funky formidable challengers in here. Fleeting Spirit has a lot of class, as does Diabolical, either of whom are good enough on their best days to win. I’m going for the price play.

Selections: 1-Only Answer 2-Fleeting Spirit 3-Get Funky 4-Diabolical

Dirt Mile
The status of Mast Track is in doubt as I write this, and I would be very surprised if trainer and owner Robert Frankel runs him on Saturday. If he is scratched, that’s going to make things a lot easier for Well Armed, a Tiznow gelding who seems to have found a perfect spot here, though I’d prefer  him to have drawn more of an inside post position. The Eoin Harty runner can go to the lead or rate, depending on the circumstances, and the mile distance suits him perfectly. Surf Cat should be more effective at this distance, too, after running dull races in his last two starts. Bruce Headley has tightened the veteran up with some quick works. No one seems to have more confidence in his horse than Wayne Catalano, and there’s a lot to like about Lewis Michael, who grabs the advantageous rail post. Pyro’s a tough one to assess in here. His only synthetic track try at Keeneland was a disaster, but all synthetic tracks aren’t the same.

Selections: 1-Well Armed 2-Surf Cat 3-Lewis Michael 4-Pyro

Turf Mile
Irish-bred filly Goldikova has made few mistakes in her eight-race career for French trainer Freddie Head, who has enough confidence to run her against colts here at her best distance. She’s drawn perfectly in the four post and has big-race rider Olivier Peslier in the saddle. It’s not the strongest Mile field we’ve seen. Shakis is a game old-timer who always finishes with a rush. If Alan Garcia can avoid traffic problems from the rail, he won’t be far away at the finish. Kip Deville ran a puzzler last time out in Canada on a yielding track for Rick Dutrow. I’d throw that race out as he goes for a defense of his crown. U S Ranger doesn’t win very many but usually gets up for a share of the money and has been facing tough company all year. Whatsthescript got an impossible post position on the outside.

Selections: 1-Goldikova 2-Shakis 3-Kip Deville 4-U S Ranger

Juvenile
Post positions really come into play here, with the two horses I like the most, Bushranger and Midshipman, drawn way outside, a distinct disadvantage in the relatively short run to the first turn. Munnings, who has chased juvenile division leader Vineyard Haven (not entered in the Breeders’ Cup by trainer Robert Frankel) in his last two starts, draws the much friendlier rail post for his first try around two turns. That’s enough to give him the edge in this spot for trainer Todd Pletcher, especially in a race without much early speed. The son of Speightstown should get the best trip under John Velazquez. Bushranger  may be the best horse and he’ll have to be overcome his 11 post. Street Hero has been steady since breaking his maiden in June and remains in top form for Myung Kwon Cho.

Selections: 1-Munnings 2-Bushranger 3-Midshipman 4-Street Hero

Juvenile Turf
Westphalia looks to me like the obvious choice here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is bet down to near favoritism from his 5-1 morning line. He’s in top form and has had a bit of a rest since his last win at Doncaster in mid-September. Coronet of a Baron obviously has is precocious and talented, and the shift from synthetic to turf by trainer Eoin Harty is an interesting move. Darley already has Midshipman going in the Juvenile and this gives them a good chance to sweep the two races. Of course, arch-rival Coolmore has Bushranger in the Juvenile and Westphalia in here, giving them a strong hand as well. The Darley-Coolmore rivalry will be interesting to follow throughout the two days. Bittel Road is unbeaten on turf and is the morning line choice, but he hasn’t seen this kind of competition yet. Donativum is in the more than capable hands of trainer John Gosden, who knows how to have a horse at peak form when it matters most.

Selections: 1-Westphalia 2-Coronet of a Baron 3-Bittel Road 4-Donativum

Sprint
Smallest number of runners in this race since 1986, obviously a byproduct of two new races: the Filly and Mare Sprint and Dirt Mile. I doubt that defending champ Midnight Lute scared anyone away based on his only start of the year, a dismal 10^th in the Pat O’Brien at Del Mar. He’s worked sensationally for Bob Baffert since then, but it’s hard to see him up sharp enough to beat the likes of Street Boss or In Summation. I give the clear nod here to the California horses, led by the Bruce Headley-trained Street Boss. My intuition tells me Bruce Headley didn’t have the son of Street Cry cranked to the max for the Ancient Title when second to Cost of Freedom, and recent works suggest he’s ready to roll here. In Summation is a thorough professional who can be counted on to run his race. Midnight Lute will be running late. Fatal Bullet has the best chance of upsetting the local horses’ applecart.

Selections: 1-Street Boss 2- In Summation 3-Midnight Lute 4-Fatal Bullet

Turf
While Europe’s bigshots were locking horns in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Oct. 5, Mike de Kock was bringing the top-class Eagle Mountain back to the races from a fractured pelvis and year layoff at Newmarket. The Rock of Gibraltor colt won the comeback, a Group 3 race at Newmarket, and some big money subsequently came in on the horse with a British bookmaker  to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf. The former Coolmore/Aidan O’Brien runner looked sharp in a morning spin at Santa Anita is primed for a big effort. Soldier of Fortune comes off a hard-fought defeat for O’Brien in the Arc. That was just his third race of the year and he might have another good one in him. Winchester turned in a monstrous performance at Arlington Park to win the Secretariat for Dermot Weld, far surpassing his European form. This is a big step up, but he showed a fondness for American style racing in that effort. Conduit completes my all- European superfecta. American turf horses appear weak again this year, but let’s not forget how English Channel romped in the 2007 Turf over supposedly superior Europeans.

Selections: 1-Eagle Mountain 2-Soldier of Fortune 3-Winchester 4-Conduit

Classic
By the time the finale rolls around, we should have a pretty good idea how European turf horses have adapted to Santa Anita’s synthetic Pro-Ride surface. I don’t have the benefit of knowing that right now, so I can only speculate how Duke of Marmalade, Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass will take to the track. But I guess we can say the same thing about Curlin, who has trained well on the track but never raced on a synthetic strip. Curlin may be the best horse we’ve seen in the last 10 years, in terms of his accomplishments if not his brilliance. But based on his last two victories over relatively weak competition, I think he’s beatable here. But who will beat him? Go Between, a synthetic track specialist who’s logged thousands of miles this year going from coast to coast? Casino Drive, the unbeaten but lightly raced, Japanese-trained sibling to two previous Belmont Stakes winners? Colonel John, the best 3-year-old in training following the retirement of Big Brown? The Aidan O’Brien duo of Duke of Marmalade and Henrythenavigator, who have combined for nine Group 1 victories on European turf this year? All have a realistic chance, but I’m taking the John Gosden-trained Raven’s Pass for the upset under Frankie Dettori. The Elusive Quality 3-year-old colt hasn’t gone beyond a mile, but Gosden knows from his previous experience in California that most top-class Europeans can stretch their ability out in the U.S. Raven’s Pass  has had a month off since defeating Henrythenavigator in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and is in absolute top form. Curlin will run hard as always, but he’s had a long year for trainer Steve Asmussen. Go Between is a steady performer for Mott, who’s handled him intelligently all year. Colonel John may be the best 3-year-old, but the jury is still out on how good this year’s sophomore crop really is.

Selections: 1-Raven’s Pass 2-Curlin 3-Go Between 4-Colonel John

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