Posts Tagged ‘Thoroughbred breeding’
Thursday, January 21st, 2010
By Ray Paulick
Kentucky-bred horses dominated the Eclipse Awards handed out in Beverly Hills, Calif., earlier this week, but that’s no surprise. Of the 10 horses that won an Eclipse Award, eight were Kentucky-breds, including Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra and runner-up Zenyatta. The two others were Mixed Up, steeplechase champion, bred in Pennsylvania, and Goldikova, female turf champion, bred in Ireland.
The 80% strike rate by Kentucky-breds among the Eclipse Award winners was even more dominant than the performance in 2009 American Graded Stakes races by horses bred in the Bluegrass State.
According to Paulick Report records, of the 322 individual American Graded Stakes winners of 2009, 192 of them were bred in Kentucky. That’s a percentage of 59.6%. The state that bred the next highest number of AGS winners was Florida, with 35, 10.9%. California and New York bred eight AGS winners each, a percentage of 2.5%.
How do those percentages stack up with opportunity?
Well, Kentucky breeds the most Thoroughbreds (10,466 Kentucky-breds were registered in 2007, according to the Jockey Club), and accounts for 30.9% of all foals bred and registered in the United States. So Kentucky-breds are overachieving in American Graded Stakes at a ratio of nearly 2-to-1 (30.9% of foals compared with 59.6% of AGS winners). Florida is holding its own, contributing to 12.7% of the foal crop and winning 10.9% of the AGS races. California was ranked third in 2007 by foals, accounting for 9.0% of the foal crop but winning only 2.5% of the AGS races. Louisiana is fourth by foals produced, accounting for 7.4% of foals but had no AGS winners of 2009. New York is fifth by foals, with 5.3% of the foal crop and winning the same 2.5% as California in AGS races. (Click here for the ranking of U.S. states by foals born)
Who wins the most Grade 1 races? You only get one guess.
Of the 80 American Grade 1 winners of 2009, 58 of them were bred in Kentucky, or 72.5%. Four G1 winners (5%) were bred in Florida, three in California, and two each in Maryland and Virginia.
The state that did the most with the least was Virginia, which produced five American Graded Stakes winners from a foal crop of only 403 in 2007, the 14th largest breeding state in the U.S., and accounting for just 1.2% of all U.S.-bred foals.
There were 13 Irish-bred winners of American Graded Stakes, three of which won G1 races in the U.S. Great Britain produced the next-highest number of AGS winners, 10, with three of them winning G1.
Here is the complete list of American Graded Stakes winners by state/country where bred, with G1 winners in parentheses: Kentucky, 192 (58); Florida, 35 (4); Ireland, 13 (3); Great Britain, 10 (3); California, 8 (3); New York, 8; Maryland, 6 (2); Virginia, 5 (2); Argentina, 4 (1); Brazil, 3 (2); France, 3 (1); Canada, 3; Oklahoma, 2 (1); Germany, 2; Pennsylvania, 2; Australia, 1; Arizona, 1; Illinois, 1; Japan, 1.
The message is clear: Kentucky, while facing severe economic and competitive challenges from states with breeding and racing programs recently enhanced with revenue from slot machines and other forms of gambling, remains the clear-cut leader in the production of top-quality Thoroughbreds. How long it can maintain such a position of dominance remains to be seen.
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Tags: AGS, american graded stakes, american graded stakes brought to you be keeneland, Horse Racing, Paulick Report, Rachel Alexandra, Ray Paulick, Thoroughbred breeding, zenyatta Posted in American Graded Stakes Standings, Kentucky | 5 Comments »
Monday, September 21st, 2009
By Ray Paulick
When the sub-prime loan crisis led to a global financial meltdown at this time last year, many stock market investors lost 10 years of gains with their investment portfolios. That’s where the yearling market is headed, based on projections by the Paulick Report showing how the Keeneland September yearling sale is going to wind up at the end of its 14-day run next Monday.
At the current rate, the final numbers for this year’s Keeneland auction will show gross sales of approximately $190,000,000, the lowest figure since 1998, when total sales reached $169,811,800. The difference between 2009 and 1998, however, is that the numbers were ascending then; the $169.8 million total represented what was then an all-time Keeneland September record and the seventh consecutive year of gains. (Click here for a summary of Keeneland sale history.)
This year’s projected sale-ending average is $65,000, also the lowest since 1998, when the average was $59,475, also a new September sale record. This year’s projected median, $25,000, is identical to the median of 2001. The decline in average price from 2008’s September sale is projected to be 28.6%, slightly higher than the 25% I predicted during a presentation in February to the Kentucky Thoroughbred Farm Managers’ Club. A number of concerned breeders said that night they thought 25% was optimistic—and they were right. The 28.6% decline is exacerbated by unprecedented buyback rates during each of the first six sessions ranging from 30.1% to 41.2%.
If these projections hold up, breeders will have suffered roughly $200 million in losses since the sale’s highwater mark in 2006, when gross receipts reached $399,791,800. That year’s average price, $112,427, was another record for September, as was the $45,000 median.
2009 KEENELAND SEPTEMBER YEARLING SALE-FIRST SIX SESSIONS, PLUS SALE-END PROJECTIONS
| Day |
No. Sold |
Gross Sales |
Change vs. 2008 |
Average |
Change vs. 2008 |
Median |
Change vs. 2008 |
RNA |
| 9/14 |
107 |
$24,949,000 |
-55.5% |
$233,168 |
-35.9% |
$200,000 |
-33.3% |
41.2% |
| 9/15 |
115 |
$33,807,000 |
-41.0% |
$293,974 |
-25.1% |
$250,000 |
-16.7% |
35.0% |
| 9/16 |
229 |
$32,718,000 |
-35.6% |
$142,873 |
-24.1% |
$100,000 |
-37.5% |
34.8% |
| 9/17 |
252 |
$26,185,500 |
-35.4% |
$103,911 |
-31.6% |
$75,000 |
-40.0% |
30.6% |
| 9/19 |
238 |
$18,439,500 |
-39.9% |
$77,477 |
-29.3% |
$60,000 |
-33.3% |
33.5% |
| 9/20 |
255 |
$14,843,000 |
-45.2% |
$91,542 |
-36.4% |
$45,000 |
-35.7% |
30.1% |
| Cumulative |
1,196 |
$150,942,000 |
-42.5% |
$126,206 |
-32.1% |
$80,000 |
-36.0% |
N/A |
| Sale-End Projection |
2,950 |
$190,000,000 |
-42.1% |
$65,000 |
-28.6% |
$25,000 |
-32.4% |
 |
This year’s prices are all the more devastating when you take into account that breeders almost certainly invested more money in aggregate stud fees to produce these yearlings because of the record, inflated yearling market of 2006. The prospects for 2010 yearling sales are not bright, either, since those horses were produced from 2008 fees; it was not until earlier this year that many stallions operations significantly reduced stud fees.
How will this year’s September sale affect the broodmare market when Keeneland hosts its November breeding stock sale in less than two months? Because the global financial markets collapsed midway through the 2008 September sale, it didn’t have that severe an impact on yearling prices, but it was felt at the 2008 November sale, where the average price of broodmares was down 48.5% from the previous year(from $125,581 to $64,695). That was the most significant single-year drop in average price of mares in the history of the Keeneland November sale; the next closest came in 1990, when the average fell by 40%, from $78,883 to $47,109. However, over a seven-year period, from the market peak of 1985 to the bottoming out in 1992, the average price of Keeneland November broodmares plunged by 61%.
Keeneland’s broodmare market has fallen nearly that far already, but I’m not sure the bottom is yet in sight. As the size of the foal crop comes down even further (and it’s dropped 18% in two years), expect the market to be flooded with mares breeders no longer want nor can afford to keep. That means prices will decline even further, perhaps to a level similar to the early 1990s.
Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report
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Tags: Keeneland, keeneland november breeding stock sale, keeneland september yearling sale, Thoroughbred Auctions, Thoroughbred breeding, thoroughbred broodmares, thoroughbred marketplace, thoroughbred racing and breeding, thoroughbred sales Posted in Breeding, Keeneland, Thoroughbred Auctions, Thoroughbred Business | 20 Comments »
Tuesday, September 15th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
At the suggestion of a Paulick Report reader who thinks the market declines at Monday’s opening session of the Keeneland September yearling sale were overstated, we’ve done a comparison that includes figures from the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale from 2008 and 2009 and the first day of Keeneland from both years.So before we begin Tuesday’s live blog from Keeneland, we’ll spend a few minutes going over those numbers.
The assumption, and one repeated by more than a few people on the sale grounds, is that Keeneland lost some of its book one yearlings to the Saratoga sale, which was revitalized this year by Fasig-Tipton’s new, deep-pocketed owner, Dubai-based Synergy Investments. With a lot of help from Sheikh Mohammed, friend of the new owner and the industry’s leading buyer, the Saratoga sale jumped 45.6% in gross receipts and 11.1% in average, defying the trends at nearly every other Thoroughbred auction. The sale ended up with an average of $328,434, 29% higher than the opening day’s average at Keeneland. Last year’s Saratoga average was $295,738, 18.7% lower than the opening day average at Keeneland.
Do we have something of a role reversal under way?
Adding last year’s Saratoga numbers to the 2008 opening session at Keeneland gives us a total of 276 yearlings sold (122 at Saratoga, 154 at Keeneland) for $94,127,000 ($38,080,000 at Saratoga, $56,047,000 at Keeneland), an average blended price of $341,039.
This year’s two sessions of Saratoga and the opening session of Keeneland saw a combined 267 yearlings sell (160 Saratoga, 107 Keeneland) for $77,498,500 ($52,549,500 Saratoga, $24,949,000 Keeneland), an average price of $290,257.
Thus, the gross revenue from these three select sessions is down 17.7% from 2008 and the average has declined by 14.9%.
I’m not trying to sugarcoat what happened Monday. For those who remember the late 1980s and early ‘90s, yesterday’s session was reminiscent of that era when many breeders were selling yearlings for less than the stud fee invested in them–just cutting their losses. The difference today is that the racing industry, the economic engine at the foundation of Thoroughbred breeding, is lurching through troubled waters. The economics of horse ownership are worse today than they were in the late 1980s, and the crisis within the global economy only makes matters more dire.
Incidentally, just because Sheikh Mohammed stepped up his investments at Saratoga, it didn’t mean there was any slowdown for him at Keeneland. His agent, John Ferguson, led all buyers Monday with 14 bought for $5,152,000, and it will be interesting to see if any of the other foreign-based purchases will end up carrying his Darley or Godolphin colors on the track.
Here are a few addition numbers to ponder:
Taylor Made, Monday’s leading consignor, offered 38 yearlings, and half were bought back and listed as RNA. Eaton Sales (excluding the five Overbrook yearlings that sold without reserves) offered 16 and bought nine back. Three Chimneys offered eight and bought five back. Some smaller consignments like Chesapeake (3 offered), Man o’ War (three) and Middlebrook Farm (2) bought all their horses back.
A few consignors had better luck: Brereton Jones offered six and bought back just one. Gainesway sold four of five offered; Lane’s End sold 14 of 18 and Warrendale sold all four, and Claiborne, Narvick and T. Wayne Sweezey and partners all were 3-for-3 in sales from their Monday offerings.
Will a reset button change things Tuesday? Geoffrey Russell, Keeneland’s director of sales, said his staff believes there are some potential breakout yearlings catalogued today, but he said the same thing about Monday’s book.
We’ll find out soon enough.
11:40 a.m. … Today’s live blog is just like the sale itself–a bit slow to get going. I spent the first hour wandering the grounds and talking with buyers and consignors, and there are very few optimists in this crowd. The negative forces at work include the global economy, market volatility, the credit squeeze, the disappearance of investment money for pinhookers, troubles in the racing industry, a shortage of new owners and departure of some existing ones…you name it. One horseman who buys and sells, after perusing Monday’s results sheet, said: “We should be bowing to Sheikh Mohammed for doing his best to hold this sale up. If it wasn’t for him–and he’s buying horses through other agents besides John Ferguson–it would be a lot worse than it already is, and it’s bad enough.”
Speaking of Sheikh Mohammed, he helped break through the seven-figure ceiling that seemed almost a psychological barrier for the first 245 Hips catalogued. Standing alongside the ruler of Dubai, Ferguson signed the ticket for a $1 million filly by Unbridled’s Song out of the Strawberry Road mare, Strawberry Reason, consigned by Stone Farm as agent. The filly is a half sister to champion Vindication.
12:10 p.m. … Last year’s second session of the Keeneland September yearling sale was a bit stronger in average price than the first day, with 146 yearlings selling for $57,310,000, an average price of $392,534 and a median of $300,000.
The cumulative figures for the first two days in 2008 were: 300 sold for $113,357,000, an average of $377,857 and a median of $300,000.
So far in today’s second session, including the first 40 catalogued, 22 yearlings have sold for $6,600,000, an average of $300,000 and median of $247,500 (the average includes the only $1 million horse sold thus far). There have been 12 RNAs, 35.3% (at an average price of $156,667), somewhat better than Monday’s opening session. The average and median are both up from Monday, too, but still significantly down from 2008.
12:30 p.m. … With the two select sessions nearly 65% complete (Hips 1-268 of the 418 catalogued), here are the cumulative numbers (comparable figures are listed above in the 12:10 p.m. update): 141 sold sold for $34,294,000, an average of $243,220 and median price of $200,000. The number bought back stands at 95, or 40.3% of those through the ring. Today’s RNAs are running at 37%.
2:20 p.m. … Here’s a new one. Hip 296, an Elusive Quality colt that was selected for book one of the Keeneland sale, left the ring without a single bid being made on it. I haven’t seen that before during the select sessions. A short time earlier, when Hip 280, a Giant’s Causeway colt, left the ring, he sold for just $5,000. It’s an unforgiving market.
Through Hip 310 (the session ends at Hip 418), the average for Tuesday was $270,756 and the median was identical to Monday’s $200,000. There have been 32 RNAs, a buyback rate of 36%. The buybacks have averaged $153,563. Today’s average is down 31% from 2008’s comparable session. It’s improved, but it’s hard to find many smiling faces around here.
2:35 p.m. … That was a pleasant deja vu. John Magnier vs. Sheikh Mohammed, just like in the days of old. The two international Thoroughbred giants hooked up in the first battle royal of the sale, Hip 342, a Storm Cat colt out of the Indian Charlie mare Fleet Indian, consigned by Taylor Made Sales Agency on behalf of the Summer Wind Farm of Frank and Jane Lyons, brought a final bid of $2,050,000 from Sheikh Mohammed and agent Ferguson, who were standing out back in their usual spot. Magnier, who is usually just a few paces behind the sheikh’s entourage by the horse path near the back ring, had slipped inside the pavilion to do his bidding, according to sources. The final price more than doubled the sale’s previous high of $1 million. The colt is the first foal out of Fleet Indian, a winner of 13 of 19 starts and champion older mare in North America.
3:20 p.m. … How would this sale be going without Sheikh Mohammed? His agent, John Ferguson, has signed 15 tickets Tuesday for yearlings totaling $7,830,000, roughly one-third of the day’s gross receipts. That brings Sheikh Mohammed’s two-day total to 29 yearlings purchased in the name of Ferguson, plus an unspecified number that may have been bought through associates and other agents. The $2,050,000 sale-topping Storm Cat colt has helped increase the day’s average to $289,720 from 82 lots sold. The receipts so far total $23,757,000. There have been 42 RNAs from the first 124 through the ring, a percentage of 33%. The median is $222,500.
3:45 p.m. … With about 30 horses left to sell, here are the cumulative numbers for the first two days of the Keeneland September yearling sale: 198 sold for $50,961,000, an average price of $257,379 and median of $210,000. There have been 52 yearlings withdrawn and 123 listed as RNAs, a cumulative buyback rate of 38.3%. (For comparison with 2008’s select sessions, see today’s blog update at 12:10 p.m.)
It is almost certain the average for the two Keeneland select sessions will fall below the $328,434 average price of Fasig-Tipton’s 2009 Saratoga sale. That’s the first time since 1999 that Saratoga’s yearling sale average topped the select sessions at Keeneland September. Back in 1999, however, Keeneland still had a July select yearling sale where many of the top offerings were sold. That sale was suspended in 2003.
We’ll  report on the final numbers around 6 p.m.
6:15 p.m. … “It’s a reflection of the world…it speaks for itself,” Keeneland’s director of sales Geoffrey Russell said after the final hammer came down on the two select sessions of the 2009 Keeneland September yearling sale. The numbers on Tuesday’s second session improved across the board from Monday, but the comparisons to previous years and the cold, hard facts left many breeders reeling.
The number sold over the two days, 222, was down 26% from last year’s 300 sold, Gross receipts of $58,756,000 reflected a 48.2% drop from 2008’s $113,357,000. The average of $264,667 was a decline of 30.0% from $377,857 last yeawr and the median price, $215,000, fell 28.3% from $300,000 in 2008.
There were 137 horses bought back by consignors from the 359 through the ring, an RNA rate of 38.2%, up substantially from the 30.1% buybacks in 2008.
Tuesday’s comparative figures with 2008 were 115 sold for $33,807,000, an average of $293,974 and median price of $250,000. Those numbers represent a 41% decline in gross receipts, a 25.1% drop in average and a $16.7% fall in median from 2008’s 146 sold for $57,310,000, an average of $392,534 and median of $300,000. Tuesday’s 62 buybacks were 35% of the 177 offered, up slightly from the 32.1% RNAs at the second session in 2008.
There were three seven-figure yearlings sold Tuesday (none Monday), topped by the $2,050,000 Storm Cat colt purchased by Sheikh Mohammed’s agent, John Ferguson, the leading buyer of the select sessions with 31 purchases totaling $13,460,000. It was the fewest million-dollar yearlings sold at the September sale since 1997, when two brought seven figures.
Ferguson told the Paulick Report that Sheikh Mohammed purchased additional horses through other agents, including Blandford Bloodstock, the sale’s fourth leading buyer (11 for $2,742,000) but that he was uncertain of the total number. Ferguson said he would attend at least a portion of Wednesday’s first non-select session before leaving Lexington.
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Combining the two days of the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga select yearling sale in August with the Keeneland September select session, there were 382 yearlings sold in 2009, compared with 422 last year. The 2009 combined average of the two sales was $291,375, a decline of 18.8%. Gross receipts in 2009 were $111,305,500, a 26.5% drop from the combined FT Saratoga and Keeneland September select gross of $151,437,000 last year.In 2008, Keeneland’s market share of the combined gross receipts with FT Saratoga was 74.9%, with FT’s share at 25.1%. When the results of this year’s top two yearling sales were finalized, Keeneland’s market share fell to 52.8% with FT at 47.2%. For the first time since 1999, the FT Saratoga sale resulted in higher average prices than the select sessions at the Keeneland September sale.Â
The Paulick Report will have further analysis of the select sessions on Wednesday morning.
Book two yearlings sell Wednesday and Thursday, beginning at 10 a.m. Friday is an off day, followed by 10 consecutive days of selling starting Saturday.
 Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report
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Tags: 2009 keeneland september yearling sale, eaton sales, fasig-tipton, fasig-tipton saratoga, geoffrey russell, Keeneland, keeneland september yearling sale, overbrook farm, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick, sheikh mohammed, synergy investments, taylor made sales agency, Thoroughbred Auctions, Thoroughbred breeding Posted in Keeneland, Thoroughbred Auctions, Thoroughbred Business, fasig-tipton | 30 Comments »
Monday, September 14th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
The world was a different place in the first half of 2007, when Thoroughbred breeders finalized the matings that resulted in the 5,000-plus yearlings to be led into the Keeneland sale ring, starting this morning at 10 a.m. and continuing over the next two weeks in what is this industry’s biggest marketplace of its kind.
The Paulick Report will be at Keeneland, providing live blog coverage throughout the day during Monday and Tuesday’s select sessions.
When the 2007 breeding season began, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flirting with the 14,000 level. Unemployment in the United States was at 4.5%. Financial institutions like Lehman Brothers were solvent. Automakers General Motors and Chrysler, while being outperformed by foreign companies, were not teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. Most Americans had not heard of the term “sub-prime mortgages.†Pari-mutuel wagering on Thoroughbred racing, the economic engine that drives the horse business in North America, was coming off a year of modest growth. The 2006 Keeneland September sales had a blockbuster year, buoying the spirits and pocketbooks of breeders and consignors, and those many other businesses that feed off them.
Then, one year ago, this country was pitched into the depths of a major economic crisis that affected nearly every financial market in the world. It bubbled over in the middle of the 2008 Keeneland September sale, and the ripple effects of this crisis touched everything in our lives. The Dow Jones average plunged, eventually dropping below 6,600 before inching back upwards in recent months to its current level of 9,600. Market capitalization of companies and net worth of individuals plummeted as a result. Businesses failed, led by financial institutions like Lehman Brothers and automakers like GM and Chrysler, leading to government bailouts. Unemployment doubled to its current 9.7%. And in our little corner of the world, the pari-mutuel racing business, handle will have fallen from 2006 levels by almost 20% by the end of this year.
Is it any wonder Thoroughbred breeders are nervous about how their goods will be received at this marathon auction? Even in the “good old days†of 2007, the Keeneland September sale suffered declines from the record average of $112,427 in 2006, and by the end of the 2008 sale, prices had fallen by 19% from 2006 levels. Making matters that much tougher for breeders today is the fact their 2009 yearlings were produced from record or near-record high stud fees, which were driven north by those sky-high sale prices of 2006.
We don’t expect the results of the Keeneland sale to paint a pretty picture. However, the sport of racing continues to hold a grip on people who might not be able to afford an NFL team or Major League Baseball franchise but enjoy the competitive nature of seeing who owns the fastest horse. It’s a game that intrigues sheikhs, princes, and titans of industry, along with individuals of far more modest means who all share the same passion: the Thoroughbred racehorse. It’s a cyclical business, and we’re in a down cycle right now. The only questions are how deep is the bottom and how long till we get there. The next couple of weeks should help answer those questions.ring
10:15 a.m. … The day’s first piece of good news. At 10:05, Sheikh Mohammed, the ruler of Dubai and the industry’s leading buyer of Thoroughbreds, popped out of a black Escalade, with an entourage of eight in tow, including his wife, Princess Haya, and bloodstock agent John Ferguson. There had been some speculation that the sheikh, who was on the sale grounds looking at horses over the weekend, may have left for his home and would not attend the auction personally. He always seems to spend more money when he’s here, so his presence is indeed welcome news for all horse sellers. Ferguson, the sheikh and his wife ducked into a private meeting room, presumably to plan their strategy for the day. He had a cell phone glued to his ear the entire time, suggesting there may be some business to attend to at home.
The second sighting of the day wasn’t quite as positive. Eddie Musselman, who publishes the Indian Charlie newsletter, was standing by the front entrance. “Hello, Eddie,” I said to him as I walked by. “Hey, Crackpipe,” he said. Funny guy, huh?
11:45 a.m. … Yearling sales almost always get off to a slow start, especially in such a volatile economy, and this one’s no exception. Of the first 14 through the ring, seven were bought back by consignors, including three of the first four. John Ferguson made his first purchase of the sale, Hip 9, a Storm Cat colt from the Overbrook Farm dispersal consigned by Eaton Sales. Ferguson signed the ticket on behalf of Sheikh Mohammed for $360,000. A bigger number came Ferguson, standing alongside the sheikh, bought Hip 39, a Speightstown colt from Gerry Dilger’s Dromoland Farm, for $700,000. Dilger is riding the wave of publicity generated from the Grade 1 successes of two of his 2008 yearling sale graduates, Spinaway winner Hot Dixie Chick (which he co-bred with Peter Blum) and Hopeful winner Dublin.
12:10 p.m. … The early results show a pretty stiff drop in prices. Of the first 41 yearlings catalogued, there were eight withdrawn from the sale and 15 listed as not sold or Reserve Not Attained. New this year, Keeneland is offering bidding on the RNAs, and the results sheets have a link permitting buyers to submit an online bid.Â
Of the 18 that sold from the 33 through the ring (45.4% RNA), the average price is $228,444Â and the median $182,500. That’s a big drop from the 2008 opening session when the average price was $363,942 and the median was $300,000. But it’s very early to base anything from these numbers.
3:20 p.m. … It’s not so early anymore, and the numbers are not looking good for the first session. Of the first 125 yearlings catalogued, 62 sold for an average of $234,629 and a medican price of $205,000. There have been 49 RNAs, or 44.1%, and 14 have been withdrawn. No horses have yet reached seven figures. Those numbers are substantially worse in all categories than the opening session in 2008 (down 35% in average, 32% in median).
John Ferguson has signed the tickets on nine yearlings for $3,490,000, or roughly 24% of the gross through the first 125 catalogued.
4:00 p.m. … The RNA rate has dropped only slightly, to 41.5%, through the first 146 catalogued hips. The average of the 76 sold is at $230,315 and the median is $192,500 from a gross of $17,504,000.. The top price is the $925,000 paid by Coolmore agent Demi O’Byrne for Hip 141, an Unbridled’s Song colt out of Goulash, the dam of champion Ashado.Â
The RNA average is $185,778, including the $900,000 buyback price for a Distorted Humor colt out of the Unbridled’s Song mare Forest Music. The colt was consigned by Jess Jackson’s Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings.Â
Ferguson has purchased 13 of the 76 sold for $4,530,000 to pace all buyers.
4:15 p.m. … “In a word, it’s bad,” one consignor told me as the sale’s first day was entering the final 20 hips. “There’s not much depth right now, and you have to remember that as many as 50 of the first-book horses ended up in the Saratoga catalogue. Those horses had to come from somewhere, the most of them would have sold here in the first two days.”
The two-day Fasig-Tipton select sale of yearlings in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., wound up with an average price of $328,434, thanks in large part to the impropved catalogue under the new ownership of Sheikh Mohammed’s associate that bought the company. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but it will be interested to review the history of the two sales–Saratoga and the first two days of Keeneland September–and see when the last time was that Saratoga had the higher average of the two.
4:30 p.m. … Right now, absent some big horses selling at the end, the average price will be in the $225,000 range and the median will be around $195,000. That’s a drop of as much as 38% in average and 35% in median. The RNAs are at 42.2%, or 62 of the 147 through the ring. Business is brisk in the bar area, though.
I’ll have the final numbers and some comments around 6 p.m.
6:00 p.m. … Monday’s first session ended with predictable business declines across the board, but they were even worse than Keeneland’s director of sales Geoffrey Russell anticipated. The number of yearlings sold, 107, was down 30.5% from the 154 that sold on 2008’s first day, and the gross, $24,949,000, was a jaw-dropping decline of 55.5% from last year’s $56,047,000. The average price of $233,168 was down 35.9% from 2008, when the average was $363,942, and the $200,000 median represented a 33.3% decline from 2008’s $300,000. “The pendulum has swung on the buyer’s side,” Russell told reporters after the final horse through the ring had sold. He used words like “hesitant” and “careful” to describe their bidding. “It was tough out there,” he said. “Readjustments are never easy, and we are in the middle of a major readjustment.”
The percentage of RNAs, or horses not sold, was 41.2%, a big jump from the 29% unsold on last year’s first day.
That readjustment may have begun two years, at the 2007 Keeneland September sale. The 2007 sale had a tough act to follow, since the overall 2006 sale set an all-time record for gross, average and median prices. The opening day of the 2006 sale had an average price of $471,872 (which actually was down from 2005’s $539,264). Opening day fell to $394,123 in 2007 and the aforementioned $363,942 last year. That’s a decline of 56,8% from 2005 till today.
Worse, the total dollars going into the pockets of breeders fell from $88,712,000 on the first day in 2005 to $24,949,000 today. That’s a $64 million question: How is this 71.9% decline in gross receipts from one day going to affect the business?
There were zero $1 million or more yearlings sold Monday, marking the first time since day one of 1996 that the opening session failed to bring a seven-figure yearling. By comparison there were 21 million-dollar babies sold on day one in 2005.
John Ferguson was the day’s leading buyer, with 14 purchases totaling $4,830,000. Blandford Bloodstock bought eight for $1,842,000, D. Wayne Lukas’s client Westrock Stables LLC bought three for $1,285,000, Sheikh Hamdan’s Shadwell Estate Company Ltd. bought two for $1,230,000, and Coolmore agent Demi O’Byrne bought two for $1,065,000.
Keeneland’s online bidding for RNA’s attracted a “few bids,” Russell said, but he was unaware that any of the unsold horses had yet found new homes through this new process.
If there is a sliver of good news from these grim statistics, it’s that Keeneland consignors only had to pay a 2.5% commission on RNAs, down from the 4.5% the sale company had been charging. The aggregate cost of Monday’s RNAs was $14.5 million, and under the old 4.5% formula consignors would have paid a commission of $652,500. At 2.5%, consignors paid just $362,500, a different of $290,000 that Keeneland will not be charging and that instead will stay with consignors. Good news for consignors, but that’s not enough of a silver lining to make the dark clouds of this market look any less ominous than they did today.
 Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report
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Tags: Keeneland, keeneland september yearling sale, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick, thoroughbred breeders, Thoroughbred breeding Posted in Keeneland, Live Blogs, Thoroughbred Auctions | 17 Comments »
Tuesday, September 8th, 2009
Commercial breeder Rob Whiteley addresses the issue of older broodmares and the bias that some yearling buyers have against foals out of aged mares in a piece that originally ran in the Thoroughbred Daily News. As always, we appreciate TDN’s Sue Finley giving us permission  to re-publish Whiteley’s article as the Keeneland September yearling sale approaches. Whiteley, who formerly operated Foxfields for Carl Icahn, runs Liberation Farm and can be contacted at liberationfarm@yahoo.com. — Ray PaulickLet’s examine the facts, starting with my personal experience. In the mid-1990s, I purchased Blush With Pride and Rokeby Rose as older mares for Foxfield with the intention of breeding them to Deputy Minister and Silver Deputy, respectively. Those matings produced Better Than Honour when Blush With Pride was 17, and Silverbulletday when Rokeby Rose was 19. Better Than Honour became a graded stakes winner, produced consecutive Belmont winners (Jazil and Rags To Riches), and sold recently for a world-record $14 million. Two-time champion Silverbulletday won 13 graded stakes, bankrolled over $3 million in earnings, and was inducted into racing’s Hall of Fame this year. Although these fabulous horses are the creme de la creme of my adventures with aging broodmares, they are exceptional only in their superiority. Many other stakes winners have been produced by other older ladies I have been blessed to own over the years.
My experience is not unique. High-level success from older mares is commonplace. Grade I winners produced by other breeders from older mares reads like a Who’s Who of the American turf. Buyers who dismiss foals out of older mares would have walked past Secretariat, 15 Breeders’ Cup champions (including Go for Wand, Capote, Ouija Board, Miss Alleged, Royal Academy, Artie Schiller, etc.), and a very long line of major stakes winners. (For a more detailed accounting, please read the CBA booklet Buying Sales Yearlings: Plain and Simple at www.consignorsandbreeders.com or www.liberationfarm.com.
Nor is consistent high-level success by foals out of older mares merely a North American occurrence. Andrew Caulfield recently authored an article titled, “Breeders dismiss elderly mares at their peril.” (Thoroughbred Owner and Breeder/Pacemaker, August 2009). Andrew’s feature could also be titled, “Buyers dismiss foals out of elderly mares at their peril.” The subtitle reads: “Oaks and other Group 1 races recently are evidence that mares who produce in their 20s are still capable of delivering top-class winners.”
The subtitle turns out to be an understatement when we digest the stunning fact that six of the last 12 winners of Epsom Downs’ historic Oaks have been fillies out of older mares. Ramruna’s dam was 21. Eswarah, Ouija Board and Shoutoush all had mothers who were 19. Imagine’s and Light Shift’s dams were 17 and 16, respectively. In addition, Dar Re Mi automatically qualified for this year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf with a decisive victory for John Gosden in the recent Yorkshire Oaks. Dar Re Mi’s dam, Darara, was 22 when Dar Re Mi was foaled.
Evidence is overwhelming that the stigma against foals out of older mares is without merit. My guess is that the mistaken belief is somehow a result of confusion caused by the fact that pregnancy and foaling rates are lower for older mares. (Broodmares as a group will be empty or otherwise unproductive approximately 30 percent of the time over their careers, and more “missing” years occur in later years). Therefore, because mares’ reproductive reliability generally declines with age, some people may incorrectly assume that the viability of the resulting foals will be automatically diminished. This is simply not the case. Just as with humans, mares age at different rates according to a mix of genetic and environmental factors, and wide-ranging individual differences exist. Some mares will develop compromised reproductive environments relatively early, while others will remain normally functional and productive well into their 20s.
Evaluation of an older mare’s status as a producer of quality stock is relatively simple. Older mares will tell you when they are no longer getting it done. True horsemen can see it when they look at the foal.
In short, if an older mare is “over the hill,” the resulting foal will show it. Therefore, if the foal (or yearling) in front of you looks the part, remember that a horse’s genetic make-up does not change over time, and rest assured that its potential has not been compromised.
I am continually and recently reminded of this fact whenever I think of my mare Tipsy Girl (now co-owned with Chris Elia of Oratis Thoroughbreds), who has produced six stakes horses, including two who have won or placed in the last two weeks. Greeley’s Conquest won the Remington Park Sprint Cup Aug. 22, and two-year-old filly Never Quicker placed in Monmouth Park’s Junior Champion Stakes in her very first start Aug. 29. Tipsy Girl, now 23, was a stakes performer until the age of six, has amazingly given me 16 foals, including a sharp 2009 Stormy Atlantic filly, and is back in-foal to sprint champion Midnight Lute. Her athletic yearling colt by Grand Slam will be at Keeneland in September as further proof for all to see that Tipsy Girl is still getting it done, despite being in her 20s.
In spite of the overwhelming evidence, however, some people will still argue studies show that younger mares produce a higher percentage of stakes winners than older mares. This is true in general; however, please look more closely at what it actually means. David Dink performed the most comprehensive multiyear study of stakes winners from foals by age of mares and found that younger mares do in fact produce a slightly higher percentage of stakes winners. Dink’s large group of subject mares produced 137,184 foals and 4,804 stakes winners, or 3.5 percent. Mares aged four through 10 produced 3.87 percent stakes winners. Mares aged 11-15 produced 3.32 percent stakes winners (although it is interesting to note that the 15 year olds, at 3.66 percent, came in higher than the average for all mares and higher than those aged 11 to 14). Mares 16-20 produced 2.33 percent stakes winners. The overall trend is obvious, but the conclusion is not.
In order to accurately interpret Dink’s data, three important observations must be made: (1) The small percentage differences between age groups may be statistically significant in a technical sense, but the differences are so negligible (less than a percentage point) that they are not useful for decision making; (2) group statistics have nothing useful to say about evaluating a specific yearling; group data cannot describe the quality, athleticism, heart, or potential of any individual horse; and (3) the trivial group performance differences between younger and older mares can be easily explained by differences in opportunity. For example, if a thorough study were performed relating average stud fee and age of mare, it would clearly show that younger mares are generally bred to higher-class stallions (as measured by stud fee), and therefore would be expected to have better results simply based on an opportunity advantage related to which stallions they were bred to.
False beliefs die slowly in our business. Yet, in the current marketplace, savvy horsemen have an edge because they realize that a well made, athletic looking yearling out of an older mare has virtually the same success as one out of a younger mare. The challenge for us, therefore, is to discard the baseless hearsay and bogus baggage that floats around the sales year after year and, instead, develop the confidence to look clearly at the individual before us and see it for what it is. Sherlock Holmes said, “I have trained myself to notice what I see.” We need to do the same.
Copyright (c) 2009, Thoroughbred Daily News
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By Rob Whiteley
Riddle: What do Sea the Stars and my sister, Sherry, have in common? On the surface, not much, although both have demonstrated precocity and great talent, and both are achievers at the highest level.
Sea the Stars is the top-rated horse in the world with four Group 1 wins this year. He is the first horse since Nashwan in 1989 to accomplish the 2000 Guineas/Epsom Derby/Eclipse Stakes triple. And his recent wins in the Juddmonte International and Irish Champion Stakes add to his candidacy as one of the great racehorses of the modern era.
Sherry Whiteley is senior vice president of human resources for Intuit Corporation, which brings us financial software such as QuickBooks and TurboTax. Intuit receives high marks each year as one of the best companies in the nation to work for, and Sherry’s ministrations to approximately 8,000 employees has a lot to do with the high quality corporate culture and overall employee satisfaction and well-being.
So, here is the answer to the riddle. Both are out of older mares. Sea the Stars’ dam, Urban Sea, was 17 when she delivered the top horse in the world. My mother was 48 when she delivered Sherry, the star of our family. Worlds apart, they each provide hard evidence that older can be better.
Nonetheless, the puzzling stigma against offspring of older mares persists on the Thoroughbred sales scene without any rational basis. Some buyers quickly dismiss an individual simply because it is “out of an older mare.” Some buyers won’t even look at foals or yearlings out of older mares. This attitude or belief is simply wrong.
It is a result of misinformation, perpetuated by the offhand mouthing of a baseless perception, from one poorly informed person to the next.
Tags: Paulick Report, rob whiteley, sea the stars, sherry whiteley, tdn, Thoroughbred breeding, thoroughbred daily news Posted in Breeding, Thoroughbred Auctions, Thoroughbred Business | 5 Comments »
Wednesday, April 15th, 2009
Pedigree consultant and author Edwin Anthony examines the bloodlines of Papa Clem, winner of Saturday’s Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem, in the latest installment of the Paulick Report’s series of pedigree profiles of contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby. Previously, he looked at Louisiana Derby winner Friesan Fire, Florida Derby winner Quality Road, Santa Anita Derby winner Pioneerof the Nile, Florida Derby runner-up Dunkirk, and Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge.
Anthony, who spent six years as the staff pedigree consultant for Three Chimneys Farm and has contributed to numerous publications, is the author of a newly published book, “The American Thoroughbred (Volume I).” Click here to learn more about the book. – Ray Paulick
By Edwin Anthony
PAPA CLEM (Smart Strike—Miss Houdini, by Belong to Me)
Some truths are so simple that it is sometimes difficult to believe them. And the truth is that, on an overwhelming statistical basis, stakes quality racemares make the best producers of racehorses. Joe Estes (former editor of The Blood-Horse magazine and inventor of the Average-Earnings Index system) wrote about this, and there is a worthwhile book (“The Estes Formula for Breeding Stakes Winners”)published by the Russell Meerdink Company (www.horseinfo.com) that details his theories.
Mr. Estes’ findings seem somewhat obvious, but the proof is in the research and in sample sizes large enough to reveal undeniable facts. In the end, pedigree research is very worthwhile (I certainly believe that), but there is no greater influence on the racing potential of a yearling than the racing record and stud record of its sire and dam.
Of course, we are disappointed when some of our favorite racemares (Winning Colors, Genuine Risk, etc.) turn out to be poor producers or produce few foals, perhaps because of their masculine nature. But for every one of those disappointments, there are quality performers who go on to be important producers like Personal Ensign (dam of several Grade 1 winners and in the pedigree of Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem), Miesque (dam of Kingmambo, Miesque’s Son, etc.), or Glowing Tribute (dam of Kentucky Derby winner Sea Hero and prominent in the pedigree of top sire Elusive Quality). These mares were very high-class racemares and continue to pass on their superiority to future generations. Of course, they inherited their greatness from their own ancestors in a genetic string that weaves its way through the patchwork of the Thoroughbred gene pool.
Personal Ensign drew upon the racing class of great racehorses like Damascus, Numbered Account, Hoist the Flag, and the Argentine mare Dorine, while Miesque was a daughter of the brilliant racehorse Nureyev from a mare by Prove Out, who beat Secretariat. Glowing Tribute’s sire, Graustark, was undefeated before fracturing his leg in the Blue Grass and comes from one of the most influential families in the stud book (Boudoir II). Her dam, Admiring, was a stakes winner and very closely related to the champion racemare Straight Deal.
Of course, that sounds as if I’m leaning on pedigrees (which I am), although this racing brilliance can very often reach back a generation or two and draw upon the influence of a superior ancestor. Thus, it is wise to have as many superior performers close up in a horse’s pedigree as one can afford, and it never hurts for these ancestors to have connections to families with a proven record of classic influence.
Recent Arkansas Derby (G2) winner Papa Clem (click here for his pedigree) has important family connections as well as an impressive string of stakes performances in his favor, both of which make him look like a serious contender for this year’s Triple Crown events. It is easy to dismiss one runner-up effort in a notable race, but when a horse continually knocks on the door, then breaks through with an impressive performance, possibly with a change of equipment or adjustment of running style, expectations must adjust in response.
After a runner-up effort to subsequent Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Pioneerof the Nile in the Robert B. Lewis S. (G2), finishing a length ahead of Wood Memorial (G1) winner I Want Revenge, Papa Clem shipped to New Orleans and ran a credible (if well beaten) second to Friesan Fire in the Louisiana Derby (G2) after setting the pace in the slop. So, he displayed good form against very impressive competition.
Everyone expected Papa Clem to be on or near the pace in the Arkansas Derby, but he instead conceded the lead to speedster Old Fashioned, racing in fifth position early, only to swing out into the stretch and take over the lead in the final sixteenth of a mile. It was discovered that Old Fashioned had injured his leg in the running of the race, although there was no indication that was stopping him during the stretch run. The final time of 1:49 was solid, and the mile split of 1:36 and change was a second faster than the winning times of two mile-long stakes on the same card.
Smart Strike, Papa Clem’s sire, has been the Leading Sire in America two years running, thanks in large part to the exploits of Curlin (Horse of the Year during those years), although when a horse is able to sire 3 G1 winners on the same Belmont card (as he did in October of 2007), there is little point in disputing his dominance. Smart Strike is a son of Mr. Prospector and a half-brother to champion 3-year-old filly Dance Smartly (Breeders’ Cup Distaff), as well as being closely related to the top grass horse and useful stallion Sky Classic. Given the tremendous performance of the Mr. Prospector line in the Triple Crown events, this certainly bodes well for Papa Clem’s chances, especially given his liking for a dirt surface at Oaklawn that has yielded classic winners Curlin, Afleet Alex, and Smarty Jones in recent years.
Smart Strike has been able to sire everything from top sprinters (Fabulous Strike), to long winded turf horses (English Channel), to a classic winner like Curlin. What does the dam side of Papa Clem’s pedigree suggest that we can expect from him in the future?
Miss Houdini, his dam, won the Del Mar Debutante (G1), certainly one of the most important races for 2-year-old fillies in California. This does not necessarily suggest stamina, although she suffered an injury and was perhaps never able to display her true class or distance potential. There is no denying that her sire, Belong to Me, was strictly a sprinter, and certainly has the physical appearance of a sprinter. After an unbelievable beginning to his stud career while standing in New York, in which he sired three winners of G1 races at Saratoga, Belong to Me was relocated to Lane’s End Farm in Kentucky, although one would have to register his stud record as somewhat disappointing since the move. Of course, it would have been next to impossible for him to continue the string of success that he had begun, and breeders’ expectations are lofty when a stallion moves to a high profile farm like Lane’s End.
Despite his sprinter’s physique, Belong to Me did sire Mother Goose (G1) winner Jersey Girl over a distance of ground and 2008 champion turf female Forever Together, who shows no ill effects in significant tests of stamina. Belong to Me seems to be drawing on the influence of his damsire Exclusive Native (sire of Kentucky Derby winners Affirmed and Genuine Risk) and his second dam by classic influence Hail to Reason. This Hail to Reason mare, Straight Deal, was a champion, with no problems negotiating two turns, and she is closely related to the important mare Admiring, mentioned above in connection with Broodmare of the Year Glowing Tribute. Admiring actually shows up in the pedigree of Miss Houdini, via the stallion Magesterial, sire of HER second dam.
So, Miss Houdini is inbred to Hail to Reason through 2 very closely related mares from the Big Hurry (full-sister to champions Bimelech and Black Helen) branch of the La Troienne family. Miss Houdini is out of a mare by champion 2-year-old colt Lord Avie, who was not a particularly good sire, shows up in the pedigree of champion turf female Wait a While (a distance specialist) and carries the classic influences Gallant Man (new world record for a mile-and-a-half in the Belmont Stakes) and Tom Fool (sire of Buckpasser) as the sire of his first two dams. The capable young stallion Stephen Got Even (sire of I Want Revenge and champion 2YO colt Stevie Wonderboy) is from Lord Avie’s family as well.
For you pedigree buffs, there is one other very interesting thing about Papa Clem’s pedigree. Smart Strike carries two crosses of the important stallion Beau Pere in the dam side of his pedigree, he being inbred to the notable foundation mare Brown Bess. The old Australian stallion Carbine was also closely inbred to Brown Bess, and he appears no fewer than nine times in the pedigree of Leading Sire Danzig, seven of those crosses coming via the great stallion Spearmint.
I decided to see if there was a good record of combining Danzig and Beau Pere in pedigrees, thus securing a means of concentrating the influence of Brown Bess. Of course, I found that Smart Strike’s champion half-sister Dance Smartly obviously possesses this combination as she is a daughter of Danzig. But in researching this cross, I found no fewer than 38 G1 winners or otherwise notable breeding animals (the dams of Arch, Distorted Humor, etc.) with the Danzig / Beau Pere combination, including Danehill, Dispute (Kentucky Oaks), Funny Cide (Kentucky Derby, reinforcement), and Sea Hero (Kentucky Derby) as examples. That’s a combination that works.
–Edwin Anthony
Edwin Anthony was the staff pedigree consultant at Three Chimneys Farm for six years and has penned dozens of articles on pedigree research. He recently published a reference book, The American Thoroughbred (Volume I), which can be ordered by clicking here.
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Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report
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Tags: arkansas derby, average-earnings index, belong to me, dunkirk, Edwin Anthony, Edwin Anthony Pedigree Report, Friesan Fire, Horse Racing, I Want Revenge, joe estes, miss houdini, Papa Clem, Paulick Report, Pioneerof The Nile, Quality Road, Ray Paulick, russell meerdink, smart strike, the american thoroughbred (volume i), Thoroughbred breeding, thoroughbred pedigrees Posted in Edwin Anthony Pedigree Report, Triple Crown preps | 2 Comments »
Monday, February 16th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
An industry that saw a $1-billion drop in wagering and a nearly $250 million decline in bloodstock sales in 2008 could use a little economic stimulus. Unfortunately, no such outside plan exists for the Thoroughbred racing and breeding industry in the United States – no federal bailout or earmarks in the massive stimulus plan just approved by Congress.
When I first moved to Kentucky in 1988, the breeding industry was in the midst of a serious economic slump, one that began in 1985 and didn’t end until 1992. The seven-year downturn was caused by a combination of overproduction (the number of North American foals born topped out at over 50,000 in the mid-1980s), overconfidence in the market, and federal tax reform that took away many of the incentives to own Thoroughbred breeding stock.
The big question at Thoroughbred auctions for several years in the late 1980s and early ‘90s was whether or not the market had hit bottom. It’s a question that really couldn’t be answered until the industry saw an uptick in business, and that didn’t happen until 1992. Then, as now, the first part of a down market was the toughest, because breeders were carrying production costs from a bull market into a sales environment that was anything but bullish.
If 2008 was a tough time for breeders, they’d better strap in for an even rougher ride in 2009. Yearlings were produced from 2007 stud fees, a breeding season that came on the heels of an all-time record year for the average price of weanlings, yearlings and 2-year-olds. In fact, the 2006 bloodstock market hit an all-time high for gross revenue, with more than $1.23 billion in North American sales.
Last year’s economic crisis didn’t really hit until September, though Wall Street had been jittery for months beforehand. Prices for 2-year-olds of 2008 were actually up slightly, and yearling average declined by just 6.9% (though median dipped more sharply, by 16.7%). The weanling and broodmare markets were hit harder, falling by 15.7% and 17.2%, respectively. Most breeders I’ve spoken with are bracing for declines in the yearling market of at least 20%, and some feel it could drop by as much as 40%.
With such dire predictions in the marketplace, it may sound foolish to suggest that 2009 could prove to be a very good year for people to breed their mares. Stud fees are down significantly, and terms for those fees have seldom been as flexible as they are today.
To quote Warren Buffett, the oracle of Omaha: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” I think it’s fair to say that many Thoroughbred breeders are fearful right now.
To that end, the best economic stimulus the breeding industry could have in 2009 is confidence among mare owners that the yearling market of 2011 will have rebounded from the anticipated slump of the upcoming year and, perhaps, 2010. The wild card, of course, is the overall state of the American economy, which even the most optimistic among us does not feel will turn around in the next 12 months.
Not breeding mares that have commercial value is not going to improve anyone’s economic standing, and will not help stimulate the industry to get out of this slump. Stallion farms have reduced fees and are working with breeders to get mares bred and stallion books filled. The breeding sheds are now open: sending your mares to be bred supports the industry in so many ways, from the vanning companies, feed companies, veterinary community, boarding farms and stallion farms, among others.
And yet despite this economic downturn, there is still much support for a good product, a conclusion we have reached due to the strong support of advertisers here at the Paulick Report. Of course, we’d like to recommend you support those stallion farms that have invested some of their advertising dollars at the Paulick Report: Airdrie Stud, Buck Pond Farm, Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms, Hopewell Farm, Spendthrift Farm, Walmac Farm and WinStar Farm. We appreciate each of those businesses, along with our other advertisers (eNicks, Fox Hill Farm, Kris S Bloodstock, Liberation Farm, M & M Thoroughbred Partners, North American Thoroughbred Trainer magazine, and Team Valor), and urge you to recognize and support them in any way possible for their part in contributing to the independent voice the Paulick Report has been bringing to the industry since June 2008.
Tags: 2-year-olds in training, airdrie stud, be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful, breeding industry, buck pond farm, economic crisis, economic stimulus, enicks, fox hill farm, hill 'n' dale farms, hopwell farm, kris s. bloodstock, liberation farm, m & m thoroughbred partners, north american thoroughbred trainer magazine, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick, spendthrift farm, team valor, Thoroughbred Auctions, Thoroughbred breeding, thoroughbred racing and breeding, thoroughbred weanlings, thoroughbred yearlings, walmac farm, Warren Buffett, winstar farm Posted in Breeding, Thoroughbred Auctions, Thoroughbred Business | 3 Comments »
Friday, January 16th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
When in-foal mares sell for less than the stud fees their breeders have invested in them, as is happening with unfortunate frequency during recent Thoroughbred auctions including the current Keeneland January Sale of Horses of All Ages, there can be trouble – trouble for the breeder who is trying to make ends meet, for the bank that may have loaned him money to buy the mare or operate his business and for the stallion farm that sold him the breeding right.
Those three interests have been butting heads increasingly as the market has weakened over the last year. Stallion farms and banks for years have put security liens on horses being sold, but now they have company from other businesses: veterinarians, boarding farms, feed companies, even tack shops. More people are fighting over fewer dollars, and some fear market conditions have not reached their low point.
It’s impossible to say how many horses are sold with liens attached to them, either from banks or stallion farms. One auction house executive is certain it’s less than 50% of the horses that enter the ring. However, one stallion farm representative told the Paulick Report the farm has filed more liens in the past 12 months than ever before.
One of the perplexing questions about liens is, “Who gets paid first?” If a breeder owes $75,000 to a bank and $25,000 on a stud fee and only gets $20,000 when a horse sells, no one is going to get whole. How that money is divided up is the issue. Auction companies take an arm’s-length position, holding the money while telling the affected parties to negotiate a settlement and tell them who gets what.
A group of chief financial officers for Kentucky farms and many equine lenders met last year at Keeneland to discuss how to resolve credit issues when multiple liens are attached to a horse. “It’s getting very messy,” one farm representative said. “Everybody is filing liens now.”
The meeting was described as a good first step, with open dialogue and identification of the various issues. Nothing, however, was resolved.
Traditionally, banks and stallion farms have worked closely together to resolve these issues, but banks are no longer as flexible as they once were. “Historically, banks have recognized those (stud fee) liens, but the Uniform Commercial Code changed a few years ago and the basic rule in priority has to do with the first to file,” one banker said. “Lienholders like banks have filed some time ago, so it becomes problematic. It’s the bank’s money, or the bank shareholders’ money.”
Complicating the issue are new “pay from proceeds” agreements on stud fees whereby a breeder is not obligated to pay for the fee until after he sells the resulting foal, either as a weanling or yearling. More and more farms are making deals for breeders to pay stud fees from sale proceeds, even if those terms are not the farm’s advertised policy. When fees were due by Sept. 1 or Nov. 1 of year bred, or even when a foal stands and nurses, the stallion farms could withhold the stallion service certificate as its trump card if the stud fee wasn’t paid. That kept a foal from being registered with the Jockey Club or sold at auction.
Now, however, with pay from proceeds agreements, the stallion service certificate is released to the breeder so the foal can be registered and sold. By so doing, the stallion farms have lost their leverage to collect stud fees from some breeders, especially if the resulting sale is lower than the stud fee.
Those farms often have no idea whether or not other liens have been attached to a horse being sold. They can perfect a lien by filing the paperwork in the state where the horse’s primary owner resides, in part to determine if other formal liens have been filed and to determine priority. That can be difficult, too, since it isn’t always easy to identify who the majority or minority owners of a horse are.
“The horse business is tough to be a creditor in, because there is no title registry concerning who owns the horse,” one banker said. “The forensics of trying to find who owns a horse can be staggering. Pieces of them change hands all the time without any paperwork. Stallion farms allow someone to sign a contract even though that person may own no part of only a small part in a mare. The farms are conducting business without the kind of underwriting a bank would do.”
Some breeders would like to see an ownership registry, but that could stifle commerce if paperwork had to be filed with the registry every time a portion of a horse changed hands. Others have suggested the creation of a central clearinghouse for liens, so creditors have some idea whether liens have been filed against individuals, but that would have to be tied in with an ownership registry. “The Jockey Club is the natural party to do that,” one stallion farm representative said, “but they don’t want to get in the middle of this, and neither do the sale companies.”
Without any change in procedures, stallion farms are likely to be standing in line behind banks when foals produced through pay from proceeds agreements are sold. “It will be a headache, and it’s going to be tougher if more people can’t pay all their debt,” said a banker. “We are looking at a market that is particularly weak, and you’d have to say the chances of people defaulting on loans is increasing. It will get worse."
“It would be less of a problem if you didn’t have pay out of proceeds,” he added, “but it’s a competitive market among the stallion farms, and it’s tough to put the toothpaste back in the tube.”
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Tags: equine lending, Jockey Club, Keeneland, keeneland january horses of all ages, kentucky thoroughbred farms, liens, live foal fees, Paulick Report, pay from proceeds, Ray Paulick, security liens, stud fees, Thoroughbred breeding, thoroughbred stallions, uniform commercial code Posted in Breeding, Thoroughbred Auctions, Thoroughbred Business, stud fees | 7 Comments »
Monday, January 5th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
“It’s hard to get half the people in this industry to agree on what day it is,” a Central Kentucky breeder said to me a couple of weeks ago, shortly after the Breeders’ Cup announced suspension of the stakes supplement program for 2009. “I can’t believe 83% of the people voting in your poll agreed that the Breeders’ Cup board made the wrong decision.”
The day after the results of the Daily Paulick Poll were reported (83% opposed the decision by the board of directors not to use cash reserves to fund the program, 10% supported it and 7% were unsure), the Breeders’ Cup reversed field, reinstating the stakes supplements – at least for 2009. Breeders’ Cup president Greg Avioli said he did not “anticipate the fervor of the response” to the original decision to suspend the program. Apparently, the poll results reflected the response Avioli and board members received in the way of telephone calls and emails from nominators to the Breeders’ Cup from around the country.
This wasn’t the first time judgments ran strong on an issue on which readers of the Paulick Report were asked to vote. The polls are not scientific, but the results are quite interesting and we are flattered by the daily response. This much we’ve learned: You’ve got opinions.
The most recent results, in fact, represent the strongest sentiment of any of the 40 polls we have conducted since just before the Breeders’ Cup World Championships in late October. (Click here to see archives of all the Daily Paulick Poll results.) We asked, “Does the National Thoroughbred Racing Association provide a strong central organization to move racing forward in the future?” The results have been stunning, with 94% saying “no” and only 6% answering “yes.”
In some ways, the question about the NTRA mirrored the results of earlier polls regarding the state of the industry and thoughts about some of the organizations that lead it. In mid-November, we asked, “In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the Thoroughbred industry in the United States at this time.” The question was parallel to the right track/wrong track question the Gallup organization periodically asks of American citizens about the state of the nation.
According to our poll, 91% answered “dissatisfied,” suggesting the industry is currently on the wrong track. Of the remainder, 4% said they were satisfied and 5% were unsure. One e-mailer suggested that the 4% who said they were satisfied must not have understood the question.
Along those same lines, in early December we asked, “Are you confident the individuals in charge of the most prominent racing and breeding organizations in the United States are adequately addressing the problems the industry is currently facing?” That resulted in an 85% no confidence vote, with 10% saying they are confident in our industry leaders and 5% unsure.
A specific question about one of the year’s biggest stories, the creation of the NTRA Safety and Integrity Alliance, indicated skepticism among voters. While 8% agreed that it was a “major step forward in the areas of medication and safety issues and will result in significant improvements” and 27% called it a “good idea, but it’s too early to say whether or not it will be effective,” fully 44% voted that the alliance was “designed to keep the federal government from stepping in and taking action” on safety and medication. Another 22% said it will be “ineffective because the NTRA lacks authority to enforce its recommendations.”
Poll responses to questions about how to improve the economics of racing were less conclusive. For example, we asked which of three areas of growth were most important to the future success of racing: reinvigorating on-track business, expanding account wagering through TV or on-line video streaming, or getting subsidies from slot machines or other forms of gaming. Reinvigorating on-track business got the most votes, 45% of respondents, barely ahead of the 41% who believe account wagering is the industry’s best hope. Only 14% believe growth from slots/alternative gaming is the answer. A more specific question about slot machines ended with a four-way dead heat, with each of the following answers getting 25% of the votes: 1) slots are a short-term fix to boost revenue; 2) they are a long-term necessity for racing to be competitive; 3) they are a necessary evil; and 4) I oppose slot machines at tracks.
On the issue of simulcast revenue, the poll run in conjunction with an article by Fred Pope on what he calls “ Priority 1: Racing’s Business Model” found 63% agreeing with Pope that host tracks and owners where the live race is run should get the lion’s share of takeout revenue. Another 29% believe it should be divided equally between the host site and where the bet is taken, and only 7% support the current model that leaves most of the revenue from simulcast wagers with the bet takers.
The level of takeout has been hotly debated in the comment sections of Pope’s article and several other related pieces. Our only poll question on the subject came after the Kentucky Horse Racing Task Force recommended an increase in takeout to help fund additional staff for the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission. Only 17% agreed with that recommendation, with 83% opposed to an increase in takeout to fund the commission.
We’ve touched on many other areas in our polls. For example, 55% of voters opposed Breeders’ Cup putting all of the filly and mare races on the Friday program of the two-day championships, with 18% in support and 27% taking a “wait and see” approach; 49% opposed having the Breeders’ Cup dirt races run on a synthetic track, while 39% supported it and 12% unsure. In the breeding world, in mid-December, 65% of voters said stud fees had not been reduced enough, 31% said the reductions were “about right,” and 4% felt they had been lowered too much. A comparison of the three highest-priced new stallions of 2009 found that Henrythenavigator offered greater value and opportunity for success to breeders than Curlin and Big Brown. The votes were 52% for Henrythenavigator, 44% for Curlin and 4% for Big Brown.
Finally, in light of the depressed bloodstock markets and a downward trend in pari-mutuel handle in 2008, a year-end poll asked readers if they believe 2009 will be a better year. Only 24% said they feel 2009 will be improved from 2008, with 52% saying it will be worse and 24% believing it will be the same.
Naturally, we hope our readers will be proven wrong and that 2009 will be a year that the industry addresses some of its biggest issues: organizational structure, leadership and a new business model that reflects the reality that roughly 10% of wagers are taken on-track where a race is being run. It’s clear there is a high level of discontent currently running throughout the industry, but it’s just as obvious that the passion to have racing stage a comeback is equally strong.
Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report
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Tags: Account Wagering, advance deposit wagering, ADW, Big Brown, Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup World Championships, Curlin, daily paulick poll, filly friday, fred pope, gallup poll, Greg Avioli, henrythenavigator, Horse Racing, kentucky horse racing task force, National Thoroughbred Racing Association, NTRA, ntra safety and integrity alliance, Paulick Report, priority 1: racing's business model, racing's business model, Ray Paulick, right track/wrong track, Simulcasting, stud fees, synthetic racetracks, takeout, Thoroughbred breeding, thoroughbreds Posted in Account Wagering, Breeders' Cup, Breeding, Horse Racing, Horse Welfare, Industry, Industry Organizations, Industry Reform, National Thoroughbred Racing Association, Simulcasting, Slot machines, Synthetic surfaces, Thoroughbred Business | 15 Comments »
Monday, December 29th, 2008
By Ray Paulick
One of the first projects that landed on my desk when I joined the Thoroughbred Times as managing editor in 1988 was a feature story on the Jockey Club, the organization historically entrusted with registering Thoroughbreds and being the keeper of the Stud Book. The article was accompanied by a lengthy mail-in survey of Thoroughbred Times readers. The story and the survey results were of great interest, for at the time I had no idea how broadly the Jockey Club reached across the entire industry and how unhappy rank and file breeders then were with the organization’s service, pricing and activities.
It should be noted that there was an agenda to the article. The Thoroughbred Times was then owned by Richard F. Broadbent, whose Bloodstock Research Information Services was facing new competition from a subsidiary of the Jockey Club. There were questions about whether a tax-exempt breed registry like the Jockey Club should create a subsidiary to compete with a private enterprise company like BRIS, which supplied statistical data to breeders, owners and various publications. A few years later, the Jockey Club helped form another for-profit company, Equibase, which competed with the Daily Racing Form to collect racing results (the Form eventually closed its track and field operations and became Equibase’s biggest customer). The Jockey Club has since started other for-profit businesses.
One of the things that struck me was the comparison between how the Jockey Club and the American Quarter Horse Association conduct their business. The Jockey Club is clearly a breed apart from its Quarter Horse counterpart. The AQHA, then and now, is a relatively transparent organization, one whose membership is open and whose leadership is democratically elected through regional and national elections. There is a board of directors, from which comes an executive committee and elected officers. The AQHA has term limits that prevent individuals from maintaining longstanding control of the organization. The AQHA web site publishes a great deal of information about its governance and membership rules, which can be read here.
By comparison, membership in the Jockey Club has always been by invitation only. Click here for an explanation about membership. It is "governed" by a rotating board of stewards, though that term is used loosely since the Jockey Club has been under the firm control of just two men since 1982, when Ogden Mills “Dinny” Phipps was named chairman and William S. Farish became vice chairman (pictured left). Click here to see the current list of Jockey Club members, stewards, and officers.
The AQHA is a huge organization that maintains the registration of more than five million Quarter Horses, with 135,000 registered in 2007 alone. There are nearly 350,000 AQHA members. According to Internal Revenue Service Form 990 for tax exempt organizations, the AQHA generated $54.4 million in revenue in the 2005-06 fiscal year, the most recent year available. At that time it had $73 million in total assets, including nearly $49 million in investment securities. Click here for the AQHA Form 990.
The AQHA, like the Jockey Club, maintains pedigree records, but also promotes the Quarter Horse breed through horse shows and publishes three magazines (the Quarter Horse Journal, the Quarter Horse Racing Journal, and America’s Horse) that had total circulation of over 400,000 in 2006.
The AQHA charges as little as $25 to register a Quarter Horse foal if done within seven months of birth. The organization is based in Amarillo, Texas, and its highest-paid officer, longtime executive vice president Billie G. Brewer, earned an annual salary of $424,928; treasurer Lee Callaway was paid $221,965 (both figures are from the IRS Form 990.) The two executive salaries represented 5.5% of the AQHA’s total payroll of $11,725,124.
The Jockey Club is also a rich organization, one that is exempt from federal taxes but also has several wholly owned for-profit subsidiaries. The Jockey Club’s 2006 IRS Form 990 states that it registered 37,300 foals that year. The Jockey Club generated $13.2 million in revenue in 2006, the most recent year the figures are available. It claimed $32 million in total assets, including $21.6 million in investment securities. Click here for the Jockey Club Form 990.
In addition, the Jockey Club claimed that its subsidiaries generated over $25.7 million in income for 2006 ($13.7 million by TJC Holdings Inc. & Subsidiaries, which is engaged in information services and software solutions; $4.9 million by The Jockey Club Racing Services, for the collection of Thoroughbred racing data; and $7.1 million by The Jockey Club Technology Services, Inc., for its technology services). Click here for more information on those subsidiaries, which include shared ownership in the data collection company Equibase, and full ownership of TJCIS (The Jockey Club Information Systems and data supplier Equineline), and InCompass Solutions, which provides software systems for racetracks.
The Jockey Club’s IRS Form 990 lists its annual Round Table Conference in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., publication of its Fact Book, and providing financial support to other industry organizations among reasons for its tax-exempt status, in addition to its breed-registry responsibilities.
The Jockey Club charges $200 to register a Thoroughbred foal, considerably higher than the AQHA’s fee. Its last increase was in 2000, when it was upped from $175. The Jockey Club, which for many years was known as the “New York Jockey Club,” relocated its registration department from New York to Kentucky in 1988.
Its highest-paid officer is president Alan Marzelli (pictured, left), who earned $672,796 in 2006, 58% more than the AQHA’s top executive. The Jockey Club has three executive vice presidents: James Gagliano, with a salary of $256,885; Daniel Fick, $243,546; and Laura Banllaro, $243,804. IRS Form 990 also lists but does not itemize another $542,776 in 2006 pension plan contributions for those officers. The salaries represented 39.1% of the Jockey Club’s total payroll of $3,626,092 (exclusive of its subsidiaries, each of which have its own executive staff and employees).
The Jockey Club’s 2006 tax return came to light recently when an entity called “CTBA Boardwatch” (which generally concerns itself with the inner workings of the California Thoroughbred Breeders Association) distributed IRS Form 990 to numerous individuals. A number of those people contacted the Paulick Report and were outraged over the salaries paid to Marzelli and his three executive vice presidents.
I don’t know the going rate of executive compensation for a tax-exempt company in New York, where three of the four Jockey Club officers are based (only Dan Fick, a former AQHA executive, is located in the Lexington offices of the Jockey Club). Perhaps those numbers are perfectly in line with other non-profits. I would imagine, though, that the going rate for an executive staff is higher in New York than it would be in Kentucky.
It does seem strange to me that the Jockey Club continues to maintain a nicely appointed office in the high-rent district of midtown Manhattan, on 52nd Street just off Park Avenue. I doubt that it’s gotten many walk-in customers seeking to register their foals since the registration department was moved to Lexington more than 20 years ago. It is conveniently located near the headquarters of Bessemer Trust, the Phipps family-run wealth management firm whose offices are just a few blocks away on Fifth Avenue.
I asked Jockey Club communications officer Bob Curran why the Jockey Club continues to have a New York office 20 years after the organization’s primary function was relocated to Lexington. A few days later I received the following statement from Jockey Club president Marzelli: “Beginning in 1989, when the first of our commercial subsidiaries was incorporated, The Jockey Club has created and developed a group of for-profit subsidiaries and strategic partnerships, each designed to serve specific segments within the industry by utilizing highly efficient, state-of-the-art technology platforms. We have built and managed this growing list of technology-based companies with a corporate office based in New York and operations centers in Lexington, Ky., and Mountain View, Calif.”
That didn’t really answer the question “why a New York office is necessary” although it did tell me something I didn’t know; namely, that the Jockey Club now has a division in California’s high-tech Silicon Valley town of Mountain View.
The bigger question is who is the Jockey Club accountable to. Is it simply Phipps and Farish and their hand-picked stewards? Is the breeders who have paid registration fees over the 100-plus years of its existence? Is the Thoroughbred industry at large? If there is accountability to the industry, why isn’t there more transparency in the operational and financial activities of the Jockey Club and its various subsidiaries? Why is its membership so restrictive and its governance so secretive?
James Gagliano, one of the aforementioned executive vice presidents, touched on some of these questions, during the Jockey Club Round Table in August in which he discussed some of the activities of the Jockey Club and its affiliate for-profit companies. Click here to read Gagliano’s remarks.
Are you satisfied that the Jockey Club is properly and responsibly representing the best interests of the Thoroughbred industry? Let us know in the comment section below, or take the Daily Paulick Poll about the Jockey Club and its activities, located on the left-hand column of the Paulick Report home page.
Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report
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Tags: Alan Marzelli, american quarter horse association, aqha, bessemer, bessemer trust, billie brewer, billie g. brewer, bloodstock research information services, bob curran, breed registry, bris, california thoroughbred breeders association, ctba, ctba boardwatch, daily racing form, dan fick, Dinny Phipps, equibase, Horse Racing, incompass, james gagliano, Jockey Club, jockey club racing services, jockey club round table, jockey club steward, jockey club survey, jockey club technology services, laura banllaro, Ogden Mills Phipps, Paulick Report, phipps family, quarter horse, Ray Paulick, richard f. broadbent, the jockey club information systems, thoroughbred, Thoroughbred breeding, thoroughbred times, tjc, tjc holdings, tjcis, Will Farish, William S. Farish Posted in Breeding, Industry Organizations, Jockey Club, daily racing form | 27 Comments »
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