Posts Tagged ‘Thoroughbred Auctions’

LEXINGTON NEWSPAPER, THAYER QUESTION HORSE INDUSTRY TAX EXEMPTION

Sunday, January 17th, 2010

Nothing like kicking someone when they’re down. 

The Lexington Herald-Leader took aim at a number of sales tax exemptions in Kentucky and specifically questioned the exemption provided to the horse industry, which is going through extremely hard economic times right now. Sales of horses purchased for breeding and sales of horses less than two years old to non-residents and sent out of state immediately, have been exempt since 1976, according to the article written by Janet Patton. Some other states have similar exemptions. (I wonder if publishers pay Kentucky sales tax on newspapers sold at vending machines.)

Sen. Damon Thayer said he is not proposing elimination of the exemption but thinks it is an issue that is "certainly cause for serious debate." Thayer’s opposition to legislation permitting Kentucky racetracks to install video lottery terminals and level the playing field with most other racing states has already put him in hot water with horse industry leaders. If he pushes for elimination of the sales tax exemption on some horse sales, he might end up as lonely a guy as the Maytag repairman.

Click here to read the Lexington Herald-Leader article.

Then come back to the Paulick Report and let us know what you think about this issue. — Ray Paulick

CULLEN RESPONDS TO ACCUSATIONS OF WRONGDOING

Friday, November 27th, 2009

By Ray Paulick
I took no glee in writing about bloodstock agent Jim Cullen’s legal and financial problems earlier this week. The trail of lawsuits, unpaid financial obligations and charges of alleged wrongdoing from some of his former clients and associates do not paint a pretty picture to outsiders interested in investing in the Thoroughbred industry.

For his part, Cullen has responded to my article at the website he maintains for his company, Cullen Bloodstock. Click here to read his response. Feel free to comment below on whether you feel he was wronged by the Paulick Report expose, or in subsequent, similar articles at bloodhorse.com and drf.com.

We have a shortage of Thoroughbred owners, and in some ways the industry has itself to blame. Organizations have failed to adequately look out for and protect the best interests of many newcomers to racing who, quite frankly, have been fleeced and unfortunately participate in what has historically been a three-step program: 1) get in; 2) get screwed; 3) get out.

There has been some progress. The Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association’s Sales Integrity Task Force has been formed, and it took some very modest steps to protect horse owners from unscrupulous agents, including a long-overdue Code of Conduct for participants. It’s better than what was in place before—nothing.

But let’s be honest. Much, much more can and should be done to inspire confidence in people who enter the Thoroughbred industry with the expectation of getting a fair shake. The decision by Keeneland to sanction Cullen—banning him from auction participation until 2011 at the earliest—was the first time the Sales Integrity Task Force’s Code of Conduct has been openly cited for enforcement since its adoption in 2007. I would suggest its enforcement has been less than aggressively pursued by some auction companies.

There has been no small amount of throat-clearing and back-patting about how well “the system worked” in bringing about the Code of Conduct-cited sanctions against Cullen. In this instance, the “system” did very little. If not for the tireless efforts of the individuals who felt they were wronged by Cullen, I doubt any action would have been taken.

By the way, the charges are just that—allegations—and Cullen deserves his day in court to respond to any of the lawsuits or accusations against him. For his part, he calls the conduct of his former clients “harassment” and said they have made “slanderous” and “defamatory” statements about him. Cullen said he has filed “charges” against them with the Lexington (Ky.) police for “harassing communications.” The Paulick Report checked with both the Lexington Police Department and Fayette County court system to see if such charges were filed, but was unable to confirm that any charges have indeed been filed as Cullen indicated.

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KEENELAND SALE PROJECTION: LOWEST TOTAL SINCE 1998

Monday, September 21st, 2009
By Ray Paulick
When the sub-prime loan crisis led to a global financial meltdown at this time last year, many stock market investors lost 10 years of gains with their investment portfolios. That’s where the yearling market is headed, based on projections by the Paulick Report showing how the Keeneland September yearling sale is going to wind up at the end of its 14-day run next Monday.

At the current rate, the final numbers for this year’s Keeneland auction will show gross sales of approximately $190,000,000, the lowest figure since 1998, when total sales reached $169,811,800. The difference between 2009 and 1998, however, is that the numbers were ascending then; the $169.8 million total represented what was then an all-time Keeneland September record and the seventh consecutive year of gains. (Click here for a summary of Keeneland sale history.)

This year’s projected sale-ending average is $65,000, also the lowest since 1998, when the average was $59,475, also a new September sale record. This year’s projected median, $25,000, is identical to the median of 2001. The decline in average price from 2008’s September sale is projected to be 28.6%, slightly higher than the 25% I predicted during a presentation in February to the Kentucky Thoroughbred Farm Managers’ Club. A number of concerned breeders said that night they thought 25% was optimistic—and they were right. The 28.6% decline is exacerbated by unprecedented buyback rates during each of the first six sessions ranging from 30.1% to 41.2%.

If these projections hold up, breeders will have suffered roughly $200 million in losses since the sale’s highwater mark in 2006, when gross receipts reached $399,791,800. That year’s average price, $112,427, was another record for September, as was the $45,000 median.

2009 KEENELAND SEPTEMBER YEARLING SALE-FIRST SIX SESSIONS, PLUS SALE-END PROJECTIONS
Day No. Sold Gross Sales Change vs. 2008 Average Change vs. 2008 Median Change vs. 2008 RNA
9/14 107 $24,949,000 -55.5% $233,168 -35.9% $200,000 -33.3% 41.2%
9/15 115 $33,807,000 -41.0% $293,974 -25.1% $250,000 -16.7% 35.0%
9/16 229 $32,718,000 -35.6% $142,873 -24.1% $100,000 -37.5% 34.8%
9/17 252 $26,185,500 -35.4% $103,911 -31.6% $75,000 -40.0% 30.6%
9/19 238 $18,439,500 -39.9% $77,477 -29.3% $60,000 -33.3% 33.5%
9/20 255 $14,843,000 -45.2% $91,542 -36.4% $45,000 -35.7% 30.1%
Cumulative 1,196 $150,942,000 -42.5% $126,206 -32.1% $80,000 -36.0% N/A
Sale-End Projection 2,950 $190,000,000 -42.1% $65,000 -28.6% $25,000 -32.4%  

This year’s prices are all the more devastating when you take into account that breeders almost certainly invested more money in aggregate stud fees to produce these yearlings because of the record, inflated yearling market of 2006. The prospects for 2010 yearling sales are not bright, either, since those horses were produced from 2008 fees; it was not until earlier this year that many stallions operations significantly reduced stud fees.

How will this year’s September sale affect the broodmare market when Keeneland hosts its November breeding stock sale in less than two months? Because the global financial markets collapsed midway through the 2008 September sale, it didn’t have that severe an impact on yearling prices, but it was felt at the 2008 November sale, where the average price of broodmares was down 48.5% from the previous year(from $125,581 to $64,695). That was the most significant single-year drop in average price of mares in the history of the Keeneland November sale; the next closest came in 1990, when the average fell by 40%, from $78,883 to $47,109. However, over a seven-year period, from the market peak of 1985 to the bottoming out in 1992, the average price of Keeneland November broodmares plunged by 61%.

Keeneland’s broodmare market has fallen nearly that far already, but I’m not sure the bottom is yet in sight. As the size of the foal crop comes down even further (and it’s dropped 18% in two years), expect the market to be flooded with mares breeders no longer want nor can afford to keep. That means prices will decline even further, perhaps to a level similar to the early 1990s.

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DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN?

Wednesday, September 16th, 2009

By Ray Paulick
“The best business in the horse industry right now is silks manufacturing,” someone said to me Tuesday afternoon as officials were tallying up the final numbers from the two select sessions of the 14-day Keeneland September yearling sale. “There are a lot of breeders out there who don’t have racing silks but are going to need them.”

Gallows humor comes in handy at times like these.

This industry player was referring to the high percentage of yearlings bought back by their consignors during the sale—137, or 38.2% of the 357 horses offered—the highest ever during these two days that set the stage for the marathon auction and define the “top end” of the yearling market (a top end that, by the way, had fewer million-dollar yearlings, three, than at any time September sale since two sold in 1997). The prices of many of the 222 yearlings that sold were tough to swallow: the average price of $264,667 was a 30.0% decline from the $377,857 average in 2008, and the median took a similar dive of 28.3% from $300,000 to $215,000.

In many cases, hammer prices were not enough to pay the stud fee breeders had invested to conceive the foal in 2007, much less help pay for their investment in the mare, the cost of raising a foal for 18 months, and getting it prepped for the yearling market.

But many of those breeders have been here before.

The last time the bottom fell out of the Thoroughbred bloodstock market with this severity was a little over 20 years ago, when cracks started appearing in a rapidly growing marketplace that had been fueled in part by new money from Dubai and increasing investment from Europe. Speculators saw Thoroughbred breeding as “easy money,” thanks in part to forgiving tax laws and generous bankers. The North American foal crop soared skyward with bloodstock prices, going from 28,809 in 1976 to 51,296 in 1986, an increase of 78%.

But tax reform in 1986 chased many of the speculators away, and a strong stock market correction in October 1987 took care of the rest, and the down cycle seemed to last forever. North American yearling sales that had generated $383.7 million in revenue in 1984 crashed to $181 million by 1992, a fall of 53% in funds going to breeders. The foal crop followed those bloodstock prices south, falling by 32% over a 10-year period, bottoming out in 1995 at 34,983.

But then, like the Phoenix rising from the ashes, the bloodstock market had its biggest sustained rally in history. Demand, fueled again by broad international participation and unprecedented wealth generation in the business world and stock markets, increased in the latter part of the 1990s and into the 21st century. It wasn’t long before gross receipts from North American yearling sales more than doubled from the 1992 nadir, reaching $440.1 million in 1999, falling backwards slightly for a few years (remember the dot.com bubble bursting in March of 2000?), then hitting an all-time high of $579.4 million in 2006. It has stumbled the last two years and is expected to take a deep drop by year’s end.

The North American foal crop crept upward since the late 1980s’ crash, too, reaching 38,019 in 2006, a more sensible growth of 9% over the 11 years since it bottomed out in 1995. Supply almost always lags behind demand.

Now we find ourselves in a new down cycle, caused by both outside forces (the global economic crisis, stock market volatility, business failures) and greater uncertainty about the future of horse racing (greater competition from casinos, online gambling, falling pari-mutuel handle, shrinking retention of revenues by racetracks and purses from handle, lack of coordinated national programs to market the sport,  etc.). Breeders saw the writing on the wall last year, reducing the number of mares bred in both 2008 and 2009, to the point where the Jockey Club predicts a 2010 foal crop of 30,000, a significant drop of 18% in just two years.

That 18% reduction is probably not enough. Demand for Thoroughbreds seems to be dropping faster, and with tracks in California, Illinois, Florida, Kentucky and other states running fewer days, there will be even less need for racehorses in future years (not that the tracks will have to order starting gates with more stalls). Supply must come down further.

The big question among breeders when I first came to Kentucky in 1988 and started covering horse sales was, “Have we hit bottom yet?” The truth is, no one knew the answer then, and no one knows the answer today. There are different forces in play now; a disconnect between the racing and breeding markets existed during the run-up in bloodstock prices during the 1990s and 2000s, and that disconnect appears to be gone.

In the meantime, breeders, at least those who are able to weather the current storm, might want to order their racing silks. In the good old days, it was the racehorse owners who were getting into the breeding business. Now we’re going 180 degrees in the opposite direction.

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LIVE BLOGGING THE 2009 KEENELAND SEPTEMBER YEARLING SALE: DAY TWO

Tuesday, September 15th, 2009

By Ray Paulick
At the suggestion of a Paulick Report reader who thinks the market declines at Monday’s opening session of the Keeneland September yearling sale were overstated, we’ve done a comparison that includes figures from the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale from 2008 and 2009 and the first day of Keeneland from both years.So before we begin Tuesday’s live blog from Keeneland, we’ll spend a few minutes going over those numbers.

The assumption, and one repeated by more than a few people on the sale grounds, is that Keeneland lost some of its book one yearlings to the Saratoga sale, which was revitalized this year by Fasig-Tipton’s new, deep-pocketed owner, Dubai-based Synergy Investments. With a lot of help from Sheikh Mohammed, friend of the new owner and the industry’s leading buyer, the Saratoga sale jumped 45.6% in gross receipts and 11.1% in average, defying the trends at nearly every other Thoroughbred auction. The sale ended up with an average of $328,434, 29% higher than the opening day’s average at Keeneland. Last year’s Saratoga average was $295,738, 18.7% lower than the opening day average at Keeneland.

Do we have something of a role reversal under way?

Adding last year’s Saratoga numbers to the 2008 opening session at Keeneland gives us a total of 276 yearlings sold (122 at Saratoga, 154 at Keeneland) for $94,127,000 ($38,080,000 at Saratoga, $56,047,000 at Keeneland), an average blended price of $341,039.

This year’s two sessions of Saratoga and the opening session of Keeneland saw a combined 267 yearlings sell (160 Saratoga, 107 Keeneland) for $77,498,500 ($52,549,500 Saratoga, $24,949,000 Keeneland), an average price of $290,257.

Thus, the gross revenue from these three select sessions is down 17.7% from 2008 and the average has declined by 14.9%.

I’m not trying to sugarcoat what happened Monday. For those who remember the late 1980s and early ‘90s, yesterday’s session was reminiscent of that era when many breeders were selling yearlings for less than the stud fee invested in them–just cutting their losses. The difference today is that the racing industry, the economic engine at the foundation of Thoroughbred breeding, is lurching through troubled waters. The economics of horse ownership are worse today than they were in the late 1980s, and the crisis within the global economy only makes matters more dire.

Incidentally, just because Sheikh Mohammed stepped up his investments at Saratoga, it didn’t mean there was any slowdown for him at Keeneland. His agent, John Ferguson, led all buyers Monday with 14 bought for $5,152,000, and it will be interesting to see if any of the other foreign-based purchases will end up carrying his Darley or Godolphin colors on the track.

Here are a few addition numbers to ponder:

Taylor Made, Monday’s leading consignor, offered 38 yearlings, and half were bought back and listed as RNA. Eaton Sales (excluding the five Overbrook yearlings that sold without reserves) offered 16 and bought nine back. Three Chimneys offered eight and bought five back. Some smaller consignments like Chesapeake (3 offered), Man o’ War (three) and Middlebrook Farm (2) bought all their horses back.

A few consignors had better luck: Brereton Jones offered six and bought back just one. Gainesway sold four of five offered; Lane’s End sold 14 of 18 and Warrendale sold all four, and Claiborne, Narvick and T. Wayne Sweezey and partners all were 3-for-3 in sales from their Monday offerings.

Will a reset button change things Tuesday? Geoffrey Russell, Keeneland’s director of sales, said his staff believes there are some potential breakout yearlings catalogued today, but he said the same thing about Monday’s book.

We’ll find out soon enough.

11:40 a.m. … Today’s live blog is just like the sale itself–a bit slow to get going. I spent the first hour wandering the grounds and talking with buyers and consignors, and there are very few optimists in this crowd. The negative forces at work include the global economy, market volatility, the credit squeeze, the disappearance of investment money for pinhookers, troubles in the racing industry, a shortage of new owners and departure of some existing ones…you name it. One horseman who buys and sells, after perusing Monday’s results sheet, said: “We should be bowing to Sheikh Mohammed for doing his best to hold this sale up. If it wasn’t for him–and he’s buying horses through other agents besides John Ferguson–it would be a lot worse than it already is, and it’s bad enough.”

Speaking of Sheikh Mohammed, he helped break through the seven-figure ceiling that seemed almost a psychological barrier for the first 245 Hips catalogued. Standing alongside the ruler of Dubai, Ferguson signed the ticket for a $1 million filly by Unbridled’s Song out of the Strawberry Road mare, Strawberry Reason, consigned by Stone Farm as agent. The filly is a half sister to champion Vindication.

12:10 p.m. … Last year’s second session of the Keeneland September yearling sale was a bit stronger in average price than the first day, with 146 yearlings selling for $57,310,000, an average price of $392,534 and a median of $300,000.

The cumulative figures for the first two days in 2008 were: 300 sold for $113,357,000, an average of $377,857 and a median of $300,000.

So far in today’s second session, including the first 40 catalogued, 22 yearlings have sold for $6,600,000, an average of $300,000 and median of $247,500 (the average includes the only $1 million horse sold thus far). There have been 12 RNAs, 35.3% (at an average price of $156,667), somewhat better than Monday’s opening session. The average and median are both up from Monday, too, but still significantly down from 2008.

12:30 p.m. … With the two select sessions nearly 65% complete (Hips 1-268 of the 418 catalogued), here are the cumulative numbers (comparable figures are listed above in the 12:10 p.m. update): 141 sold sold for $34,294,000, an average of $243,220 and median price of $200,000. The number bought back stands at 95, or 40.3% of those through the ring. Today’s RNAs are running at 37%.

2:20 p.m. … Here’s a new one. Hip 296, an Elusive Quality colt that was selected for book one of the Keeneland sale, left the ring without a single bid being made on it. I haven’t seen that before during the select sessions. A short time earlier, when Hip 280, a Giant’s Causeway colt, left the ring, he sold for just $5,000. It’s an unforgiving market.

Through Hip 310 (the session ends at Hip 418), the average for Tuesday was $270,756 and the median was identical to Monday’s $200,000. There have been 32 RNAs, a buyback rate of 36%. The buybacks have averaged $153,563. Today’s average is down 31% from 2008’s comparable session. It’s improved, but it’s hard to find many smiling faces around here.

2:35 p.m. … That was a pleasant deja vu. John Magnier vs. Sheikh Mohammed, just like in the days of old. The two international Thoroughbred giants hooked up in the first battle royal of the sale, Hip 342, a Storm Cat colt out of the Indian Charlie mare Fleet Indian, consigned by Taylor Made Sales Agency on behalf of the Summer Wind Farm of Frank and Jane Lyons, brought a final bid of $2,050,000 from Sheikh Mohammed and agent Ferguson, who were standing out back in their usual spot. Magnier, who is usually just a few paces behind the sheikh’s entourage by the horse path near the back ring, had slipped inside the pavilion to do his bidding, according to sources. The final price more than doubled the sale’s previous high of $1 million. The colt is the first foal out of Fleet Indian, a winner of 13 of 19 starts and champion older mare in North America.

3:20 p.m. … How would this sale be going without Sheikh Mohammed? His agent, John Ferguson, has signed 15 tickets Tuesday for yearlings totaling $7,830,000, roughly one-third of the day’s gross receipts. That brings Sheikh Mohammed’s two-day total to 29 yearlings purchased in the name of Ferguson, plus an unspecified number that may have been bought through associates and other agents. The $2,050,000 sale-topping Storm Cat colt has helped increase the day’s average to $289,720 from 82 lots sold. The receipts so far total $23,757,000. There have been 42 RNAs from the first 124 through the ring, a percentage of 33%. The median is $222,500.

3:45 p.m. … With about 30 horses left to sell, here are the cumulative numbers for the first two days of the Keeneland September yearling sale: 198 sold for $50,961,000, an average price of $257,379 and median of $210,000. There have been 52 yearlings withdrawn and 123 listed as RNAs, a cumulative buyback rate of 38.3%. (For comparison with 2008’s select sessions, see today’s blog update at 12:10 p.m.)

It is almost certain the average for the two Keeneland select sessions will fall below the $328,434 average price of Fasig-Tipton’s 2009 Saratoga sale. That’s the first time since 1999 that Saratoga’s yearling sale average topped the select sessions at Keeneland September. Back in 1999, however, Keeneland still had a July select yearling sale where many of the top offerings were sold. That sale was suspended in 2003.

We’ll  report on the final numbers around 6 p.m.

6:15 p.m. … “It’s a reflection of the world…it speaks for itself,” Keeneland’s director of sales Geoffrey Russell said after the final hammer came down on the two select sessions of the 2009 Keeneland September yearling sale. The numbers on Tuesday’s second session improved across the board from Monday,  but the comparisons to previous years and the cold, hard facts left many breeders reeling.

The number sold over the two days, 222, was down 26% from last year’s 300 sold, Gross receipts of $58,756,000 reflected a 48.2% drop from 2008’s $113,357,000. The average of $264,667 was a decline of 30.0% from $377,857 last yeawr and the median price, $215,000, fell 28.3% from $300,000 in 2008.

There were 137 horses bought back by consignors from the 359 through the ring, an RNA rate of 38.2%, up substantially from the 30.1% buybacks in 2008.

Tuesday’s comparative figures with 2008 were 115 sold for $33,807,000, an average of $293,974 and median price of $250,000. Those numbers represent a 41% decline in gross receipts, a 25.1% drop in average and a $16.7% fall in median from 2008’s 146 sold for $57,310,000, an average of $392,534 and median of $300,000. Tuesday’s 62 buybacks were 35% of the 177 offered, up slightly from the 32.1% RNAs at the second session in 2008.

There were three seven-figure yearlings sold Tuesday (none Monday), topped by the $2,050,000 Storm Cat colt purchased by Sheikh Mohammed’s agent, John Ferguson, the leading buyer of the select sessions with 31 purchases totaling $13,460,000. It was the fewest million-dollar yearlings sold at the September sale since 1997, when two brought seven figures.

Ferguson told the Paulick Report that Sheikh Mohammed purchased additional horses through other agents, including Blandford Bloodstock, the sale’s fourth leading buyer (11 for $2,742,000) but that he was uncertain of the total number. Ferguson said he would attend at least a portion of Wednesday’s first non-select session before leaving Lexington.

 

 

Combining the two days of the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga select yearling sale in August with the Keeneland September select session, there were 382 yearlings sold in 2009, compared with 422 last year. The 2009 combined average of the two sales was $291,375, a decline of 18.8%. Gross receipts in 2009 were $111,305,500, a 26.5% drop from the combined FT Saratoga and Keeneland September select gross of $151,437,000 last year.In 2008, Keeneland’s market share of the combined gross receipts with FT Saratoga was 74.9%, with FT’s share at 25.1%. When the results of this year’s top two yearling sales were finalized, Keeneland’s market share fell to 52.8% with FT at 47.2%. For the first time since 1999, the FT Saratoga sale resulted in higher average prices than the select sessions at the Keeneland September sale. 

The Paulick Report will have further analysis of the select sessions on Wednesday morning.

Book two yearlings sell Wednesday and Thursday, beginning at 10 a.m. Friday is an off day, followed by 10 consecutive days of selling starting Saturday.

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AVERAGE DOWN 31.5% AT FASIG-TIPTON

Tuesday, March 3rd, 2009

By Ray Paulick
All the economic indicators took a predictable dip at Fasig-Tipton’s sale of 2-year-olds in training at Calder on Tuesday, with gross receipts falling 25.5% from 2008 and the average and median prices dropping by 31.5% and 34.8%, respectively. The declines are in line with falling market prices at other Thoroughbred auctions in North America since the financial crisis hit last September, midway through the bellwether Keeneland September yearling sale.

Fasig-Tipton reported selling 111 horses for $26,151,000, an average price of $235,595 and median of $150,000, compared with 2008 figures of 102 sold for $35,100,000, an average of $344,119 and median of $230,000. Buy-backs were down from 40.4% in 2008 to 35.4% this year, when 61 of the 172 through the ring failed to reach their reserve price. Another 91 juveniles were listed on the results sheet as "out" or withdrawn at this year’s sale.

There was broad-based participation from a cross-section of American and international buyers, including a contingent from Japan and Europe. Absent from the list of buyers, however,  was Demi O’Byrne, who represents the Coolmore operation of John Magnier and has annually been one of the leading buyers at American yearling and 2-year-old auctions.

John Ferguson, agent for Dubai’s Sheikh Mohammed, bought the only three seven-figure juveniles in the sale. He purchased a Medaglia d’Oro colt (Hip 94) consigned by Ciaran Dunne’s Wavertree Stables for $1.6 million after earlier bidding $1.1 million for an Unbridled’s Song colt (Hip 75) from the consignment of Leprechaun Racing, agent. Ferguson also bid $1 million for another son of Unbridled’s Song (Hip 271), from the consingment of Scanlon Training Center, agent. late 

The sale was operated for the first time under the new ownership of the Dubai-based Synergy Investments, which purchased Fasig-Tipton last May. Ferguson negotiated the deal on behalf of Synergy, whose principal is an associate of Sheikh Mohammed.

Clilck here for results from Fasig-Tipton.

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EQUINOMIC STIMULUS?

Monday, February 16th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
An industry that saw a $1-billion drop in wagering and a nearly $250 million decline in bloodstock sales in 2008 could use a little economic stimulus. Unfortunately, no such outside plan exists for the Thoroughbred racing and breeding industry in the United States – no federal bailout or earmarks in the massive stimulus plan just approved by Congress.

When I first moved to Kentucky in 1988, the breeding industry was in the midst of a serious economic slump, one that began in 1985 and didn’t end until 1992. The seven-year downturn was caused by a combination of overproduction (the number of North American foals born topped out at over 50,000 in the mid-1980s), overconfidence in the market, and federal tax reform that took away many of the incentives to own Thoroughbred breeding stock.

The big question at Thoroughbred auctions for several years in the late 1980s and early ‘90s was whether or not the market had hit bottom. It’s a question that really couldn’t be answered until the industry saw an uptick in business, and that didn’t happen until 1992. Then, as now, the first part of a down market was the toughest, because breeders were carrying production costs from a bull market into a sales environment that was anything but bullish.

If 2008 was a tough time for breeders, they’d better strap in for an even rougher ride in 2009. Yearlings were produced from 2007 stud fees, a breeding season that came on the heels of an all-time record year for the average price of weanlings, yearlings and 2-year-olds. In fact, the 2006 bloodstock market hit an all-time high for gross revenue, with more than $1.23 billion in North American sales.

Last year’s economic crisis didn’t really hit until September, though Wall Street had been jittery for months beforehand. Prices for 2-year-olds of 2008 were actually up slightly, and yearling average declined by just 6.9% (though median dipped more sharply, by 16.7%). The weanling and broodmare markets were hit harder, falling by 15.7% and 17.2%, respectively. Most breeders I’ve spoken with are bracing for declines in the yearling market of at least 20%, and some feel it could drop by as much as 40%.

With such dire predictions in the marketplace, it may sound foolish to suggest that 2009 could prove to be a very good year for people to breed their mares. Stud fees are down significantly, and terms for those fees have seldom been as flexible as they are today.

To quote Warren Buffett, the oracle of Omaha: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” I think it’s fair to say that many Thoroughbred breeders are fearful right now.

To that end, the best economic stimulus the breeding industry could have in 2009 is confidence among mare owners that the yearling market of 2011 will have rebounded from the anticipated slump of the upcoming year and, perhaps, 2010. The wild card, of course, is the overall state of the American economy, which even the most optimistic among us does not feel will turn around in the next 12 months.

Not breeding mares that have commercial value is not going to improve anyone’s economic standing, and will not help stimulate the industry to get out of this slump. Stallion farms have reduced fees and are working with breeders to get mares bred and stallion books filled. The breeding sheds are now open: sending your mares to be bred supports the industry in so many ways, from the vanning companies, feed companies, veterinary community, boarding farms and stallion farms, among others.

And yet despite this economic downturn, there is still much support for a good product, a conclusion we have reached due to the strong support of advertisers here at the Paulick Report. Of course, we’d like to recommend you support those stallion farms that have invested some of their advertising dollars at the Paulick Report: Airdrie Stud, Buck Pond Farm, Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms, Hopewell Farm, Spendthrift Farm, Walmac Farm and WinStar Farm. We appreciate each of those businesses, along with our other advertisers (eNicks, Fox Hill Farm, Kris S Bloodstock, Liberation Farm, M & M Thoroughbred Partners, North American Thoroughbred Trainer magazine, and Team Valor), and urge you to recognize and support them in any way possible for their part in contributing to the independent voice the Paulick Report has been bringing to the industry since June 2008.

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

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KEENELAND DAY THREE: DOWNWARD TREND CONTINUES

Wednesday, November 5th, 2008
(from Keeneland publicity department)

My White Corvette, dam of 2008 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) winner Stardom Bound, brought top price of $825,000 on Wednesday at Keeneland’s November Breeding Stock Sale.

Barry Weisbord signed the ticket, on behalf of celebrity chef Bobby Flay, for the 10-year-old mare by Tarr Road. My White Corvette was not mated in 2008 since her weanling filly by Lion Heart was a May foal. She was consigned by Hunter Valley Farm, agent.

On Wednesday, Keeneland sold 224 horses for gross receipts of $24,698,000, down 42.1 percent from 2007 when 258 horses brought $42,638,000.  Average price of $110,259 decreased 33.3 percent from last year’s $165,264.  The median price of $82,500 was down 36.5 percent from $130,000 in 2007. The buy-back rate was 28.2%.

Keeneland November Cumulative Prices 
First Three Sessions: 
2002-08
Year Sold Revenue Average Median

2008

523

$114,725,000

$219,359

$125,000

2007

638

$221,137,000

$346,610

$190,000

2006

616

$194,352,000

$315,506

$190,000

2005

633

$200,002,000

$315,959

$200,000

2004

691

$202,533,500

$293.102

$150,000

2003

606

$165,541,000

$273,170

$135,000

2002

613

$134,944,000

$220,137

$110,000

Through the first three days, Keeneland has sold a total of 523 horses for $114,725,000, down 48.1 percent from last year’s $221,137,000 when 638 horses sold.  The average of $219,359 was down 36.7 percent from $346,610 in 2007, while the median of $125,000 decreased 34.2 percent from last year’s $190,000

“In general, given the state of the world today, it was a very good session,” said Geoffrey Russell, Keeneland’s director of sales. “What is good is that there is active trade here; and active trade with an international feel.”

Woodland Farm, the day’s leading buyer, purchased the session’s second-, third- and fourth-highest priced horses, paying $500,000 for Capeside Lady, in foal to Empire Maker; $385,000 for Sacred Feather, in foal to Giant’s Causeway; and $375,000 for Princess Patricia, in foal to Hard Spun.


Graded stakes winner Capeside Lady, a seven-year-old mare by Cape Town, was consigned by Dapple Stud, agent.

The six-year-old Sacred Feather is by Carson City out of graded stakes winner Marianna’s Girl, and a half-sister to such stakes winners as Marastani, Christine’s Outlaw, and Crimson Classic. Princess Patricia, a five-year-old mare by Aptitude, is a half-sister to recent Emirates Airlines Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) winner Forever Together. Both mares were consigned by Nursery Place, agent.

Keeneland’s November Breeding Stock Sale continues through Monday, November 17. Sessions begin at 10 a.m. daily.

 

RAY PAULICK’S MONDAY UPDATES FROM KEENELAND SALE

Monday, November 3rd, 2008

By Ray Paulick

The final numbers from Monday’s opening session of the 2008 Keeneland November breeding stock sale were not pretty, and the bad news is that it might get worse before it gets any better in an environment stung by turbulent stock exchanges around the world, high-profile bankruptcies in the financial markets and a stalled American economy.

First, the numbers: Keeneland reported selling 149 horses (broodmares, broodmare or racing prospects, and weanlings) from the 311 catalogued. The gross amount was $48,021,000, an average price of $322,289 and a median of $185,000. Those numbers are down substantially from last year’s opening session when 194 horses sold for $109,064,000, an average of $562,186 and median of $272,500. The declines are 56% in gross, 42.7% in average, and 32.1% in median price. Last year’s opening session was the strongest in the history of the Keeneland November sale, jumping 30% in gross revenue from the 2006 opening day.

The average and median prices don’t tell the whole picture. Of the 311 horses catalogued, there were more that didn’t sell than changed hands. Seventy lots were withdrawn and 92 horses, or 38.2% of the 241 through the ring, failed to meet their reserve price. The RNA or buy-back rate was twice as high as last year’s opening session, when 19.2% of those through the ring failed to sell.

Those are tough numbers for  breeders to swallow. In cases where breeders were not forced to sell to pay their bills, they had the luxury to withdraw their horses rather than selling them in a soft market. In instances where bank notes were due or credit lines have been tightened, mare owners had to suck it up and see what the market was willing to pay.

"It’s a bloodbath," one agent said midway through the session. One breeder said he took a beating on one mare sold early Monday and withdrew the rest.

Keeneland November Opening Sessions: 2002-08
Year Sold Revenue Average Median

2008

149

$48,021,000

$322,289

$185,000

2007

194

$109,064,000

$562,186

$272,500

2006

164

$83,795,000

$510,945

$297,500

2005

180

$98,121,000

$545,117

$315,000

2004

213

$80,976,500

$380,171

$185,000

2003

171

$69.170,000

$404,503

$180,000

2002

186

$58,851,000

$316,406

$170,000

In contrast to 2007, when a record 28 million-dollar horses were sold on the opening day, there were just 11 this year, led by the $3 million paid by John Ferguson, chief bloodstock adviser to Sheikh Mohammed’s Darley operation, for Hip 53, the grade I-winning mare Hystericalady, who most recently finished fifth behind Horse of the Year candidate Zenyatta in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic at Santa Anita Oct. 24. It’s doubtful Hystericalady will race again.

Ferguson was the day’s leading buyer, with six purchases totaling $8,710,000. Last year, Ferguson bought just four horses on the first day, but one of them was Playful Act, a mare who set a then-world record price of $10.5 million, who made up the bulk of his $18.5 million expenditures.

The atmosphere at Keeneland on Monday in no way matched the buzz that was created across town at Fasig-Tipton on Sunday night, which was highlighted by the $14-million sale of Broodmare of the Year Better Than Honour and the $5.7 million sale of presumptive 2-year-old filly champion Stardom Bound. But even those headline prices camouflaged a soft market.

Fasig-Tipton was packed Sunday night, in part by Thoroughbred enthusiasts who wanted to get a close look at Better Than Honour and Stardom Bound. It was a little reminiscent of the old Keeneland July yearling sale, when the Keeneland pavilion was filled with a combination of buyers, consignors, industry workers and "tourists." Monday’s atmosphere at Keeneland is strictly business, it seems. 

The tarmac at Bluegrass Field across Versailles Road is filled with private jets, suggesting that many of the industry’s wealthiest particpants are here. Comments from several consignors suggest the presence of those jets indicates the very high end of the broodmare market will be stable. Below that, however, there are fears of a major dropoff in prices. "Some breeders are in a tough spot," one consignor said. "They need to sell some mares to pay the bills, but they are selling into a very tough market right now."

Geoffrey Russell, Keeneland’s director of sales, made the following statement in a press release: "Last November opened with an historical and record-breaking session during which we sold 28 million-dollar horses versus 11 this year, including a $10.5 million broodmare; that’s a huge difference. Whether the difference is owed to the economy or to the catalog; it’s probably a factor of both. But this is marketplace where people come to trade horses; and we will successfully trade horses over the next two weeks; though probably not at the level we did last year.” 

Click here for Monday’s results, includilng a summary of leading buyers and consignors.

The sale continues through Monday, Nov. 17, with daily sessions beginning at 10 a.m.

A CLOSER LOOK AT SUNDAY’S FASIG-TIPTON SALE

While Fasig-Tipton’s Sunday night sale looked very strong at first glance, it had the same clearance problems that plagued Keeneland’s opening session on Monday. The published buy-back rate was 39.3% (59 RNAs from 150 offered), but there were also 39 lots withdrawn, meaning that 98 horses, more than half of those catalogued, failed to sell.

Fasig-Tipton November sale: 
2002-08
Year Sold Revenue Average Median

2008

91

$70,279,000

$772,297

$250,000

2007

107

$52,036,000

$486,318

$180,000

2006

170

$64,130,000

$377,235

$175,000

2005

112

$32,183,000

$287,348

$86,000

2004

201

$20,685,800

$102,914

$27,000

2003

59

$5,160,000

$87,458

$45,000

2002

36

$3,499,500

$97,208

$60,000

Fasig-Tipton reported 91 horses sold for $70,279,000, an average of $772,297 and median price of $250,000. Included in those sales were eight horses bought for $23,460,000 by Southern Equine Stables from the consignment of Hill ‘n’ Dale Sales Agency that were previously owned in partnership by Southern Equine and Hill ‘n’ Dale (including the world record-priced Better Than Honour, which sold for $14 million). Hill ‘n’ Dale owner John Sikura bought one from his consignment for $3.1 million. Stripping those nine transactions out, Fasig-Tipton still sold 82 horses for $43,719,000, an average price of $533,158 and median of $220,000, well ahead of last year’s average of $486,318 and median of $180,000. 

Either with or without the Hill ‘n’ Dale horses, it was an extremely strong market for top-class mares.

The increasing depth and quality of Fasig-Tipton’s November sale didn’t happen overnight, or with the purchase of the company by an associate of Dubai’s Sheikh Mohammed. Fasig-Tipton is in the very early stages of that new ownership, but already there have been significant enhancements in the physical plant on Newtown Pike (more are certain to come), along with news about coming improvements at the Humphrey S. Finney Pavilion in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

The accompanying table shows Fasig-Tipton’s stready growth in the November sale over the last eight years.

Perhaps more than anything else, the strength of Fasig-Tipton’s outstanding catalogue was the reason for Keeneland’s sluggish start on Monday. As one commercial breeder said, "Fasig-Tipton took a huge bite out of book one at Keeneland."

Earlier this year we wrote about the "new era of Fasig-Tipton" under the ownership of Synergy Investments, and included a number of comments from breeders, agents and buyers who hoped that Fasig-Tipton’s advancements would make Keeneland more customer friendly. Keeneland was called "arrogant" by a some of its customers in a subsequent Paulick Report article.

Based on comments by some mare owners, Keeneland is responding with a stronger recruiting effort, something Fasig-Tipton has been doing for years. Keeneland has held a powerful edge in market share in yearling and breeding stock sales, but the results from this fall indicate Fasig-Tipton is gaining ground.

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

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MINOR FILES CLASS-ACTION SUIT AGAINST SOTHEBY’S

Thursday, October 2nd, 2008
By Ray Paulick

Halsey Minor, the technology entrepreneur and Thoroughbred owner and breeder whose bid to purchase Hialeah Park was recently rebuffed by owner John Brunetti, has filed a class-action lawsuit against the auction company Sotheby’s for transparency and disclosure issues that may parallel those in the Thoroughbred auction business.

Minor, 43, was sued by the New York-based Sotheby’s for $16.8 million last month after he failed to pay for three works of art he purchased through the auction house in May, including $8.6 million for the “Peaceable Kingdom With the Leopard of Serenity,” by 19th Century American folk artist Edward Hicks. On Tuesday morning in federal court in the Northern District of California, Minor filed a class-action claim against Sotheby’s for deceptive practices, unjust enrichment and fraud, plus one individual count of breach of fiduciary duty. (Click here for a copy of the suit.)

The lawsuit stems from Minor’s claim that Sotheby’s was deceptive in not disclosing its own economic interest in the artwork he purchased. Sotheby’s was owed money by art collector Ralph Esmerian, the suit claims, and the debt was secured by the works of art that Minor purchased, with Sotheby’s allegedly retaining the proceeds from the sale in order to reduce the debt. Sotheby’s failed to disclose those details verbally or in its sale catalogue, which the suit claims is a violation of New York statute and common law.

Furthermore, it is claimed, Dara Mitchell, director of the American Paintings Department for Sotheby’s, acted as an advisor to Minor and recommended the purchase of “Peaceable Kingdom” and steered him away from other works. The suit states: “Sotheby’s took on obligations to plaintiff beyond those of an independent auction house or traditional middleman when engaged as art consultant and purchasing agent … Sotheby’s breached its fiduciary duty to plaintiff by intentionally and in bad faith concealing from plaintiff information concerning its economic interest in the auctioned property.”

Minor seeks to represent what the suit projects are thousands of other buyers who may have purchased property at Sotheby’s auctions in which Sotheby’s had an undisclosed economic interest. Proposed class-action members can be identified and located through access to Sotheby’s records, the suit states. It seeks relevant information about previous buyers from Sotheby’s over a six-year period.

The issue of a sale company’s economic interest in property it sells has not come up in legal action in the Thoroughbred auction business to this writer’s knowledge, but it is not uncommon for proceeds from horses sold to to be used to settle debts to an auction company; those details are not disclosed publicly. Further, individuals employed by auction companies in various positions have had undisclosed economic interests in horses sold by the auction companies.

An attorney familiar with art and Thorouthbred auctions commented to the Paulick Report: “Sotheby’s will take the same tactic the horse business does in such matters and say, ‘No one twisted your arm to bid — if you were willing to pay it, it must be a fair price,’ and ignore the ‘informed buyer’ requirement of the fair market value definition.”

The Los Angeles law firm Dreier Stein Kahan Browne Woods George is representing Minor.

The suit demands a jury trial and seeks an injunction requiring preliminary and permanent disclosure in catalogues by Sotheby’s of any economic interests the company has in property it auctions; repayments to Minor and class-action members of unjust enrichments by Sotheby’s from property’s in which it had an economic interest; compensatory and punitive damages for wrongful conduct; and treble damage in accordance with New York law.

Seven years ago, Sotheby’s and counterpart auction house Christie’s paid a $537-million settlement to customers for price-fixing on commissions and Sotheby’s former chairman Alfred Taubman was convicted of price fixing and sentenced to one year in prison.

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

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