Posts Tagged ‘Thiskyhasnolimit’

 Back when magazines mattered, there used to be this thing called the “Sports Illustrated cover jinx.” I’m starting to worry that it might be replaced by the Ray Paulick “Paulick Derby Index jinx.”
 
When we launched the 2010 edition of the Derby Index two weeks ago, my top choice three months out from the Kentucky Derby was Rick Porter’s Winslow Homer, a son of Unbridled’s Song who was coming off a victory in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. I liked the way he made three separate moves in that race and yet still had enough to hold off the favored Jackson Bend, a sign of versatility and maturity. Days later, however, he was off the trail with an injury and off my list.

Last week, Tiz Chrome occupied my top spot, not so much for what he had accomplished in his brief career but for what I thought he would do in last Saturday’s Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. But the son of Tiznow trained by Bob Baffert showed little fight in the final quarter mile of his first race around two turns after jumping out to an early lead.

So I look ahead to this weekend’s Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes with great apprehension as I move Buddy’s Saint to the top of my Derby Index list, and hope he can break the jinx. Following is my newly minted Top 10 in the wake of Caracortado’s upset win in the Lewis and Rule’s dominating performance in the Sam Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.

1-Buddy’s Saint. Comes off a good, solid six-furlong drill on Sunday for trainer Bruce Levine in preparation for Saturday’s Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. His pedigree suggests stamina, and continued success by this Saint Liam colt would be a fitting tribute to the late Allen Paulson, who produced the dam of Buddy’s Saint, the Blushing John mare Tuzia, runner-up in the 10-furlong Personal Ensign Stakes. Paulson never won the Kentucky Derby—not that he didn’t want to, but his breeding program was based more on producing horses with stamina, and that characteristic often comes at the expense of precocity.

2-Lookin At Lucky. The reigning champion (by Smart Strike) is working solidly in anticipation of his 3-year-old debut, expected to be March 13 in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. Trainer Bob Baffert didn’t have the best of weekends when Tiz Chrome was beaten in the Robert Lewis Stakes and Oaklawn Park had to postpone the Southwest Stakes Monday—for which Conveyance had been shipped from California and entered to run—because of bad weather.

3-Rule. The quality of Triple Crown contenders prepping at Tampa Bay Downs has been on the upswing in recent years, so Rule’s impressive victory in Saturday’s Sam Davis is more meaningful in my eyes than it would have been just a few years ago. The son of Roman Ruler will get a much stiffer test next out—trainer Todd Pletcher said he wants to jump him into Grade 1 competition—but the encouraging thing about this most recent win was the way Rule relaxed on the lead.

4-American Lion. Sometimes a defeat is better than it looked, and that’s how I’m going to categorize American Lion’s third-place showing in Saturday’s Robert Lewis Stakes, his first route race around two turns. He bobbled coming out of the gate, used up some energy to challenge for the lead after that, battled favorite Tiz Chrome into submission in midstretch, but was unable to hold off Caracortado and the fast-finishing Dave in Dixie. The son of Tiznow got some experience in that race and will be a much better horse next time around for trainer Eoin Harty.

5- Dave In Dixie. If I had a dark horse candidate right now it would be this John Sadler-trained son of Dixie Union who came flying in the final furlong to finish second to Caracortado in the Robert Lewis Stakes. He closed a ton of ground in his previous start, the Norfolk, though not hitting the board that day, and will benefit from the tightener in the Lewis. Not every strong closer gets better with distance and he could be a sucker horse, but I’d give this colt another race or two to see if he figures out what this game is all about.

6-Super Saver. Member of the WinStar Farm Triple Crown juggernaut who is approaching his 2010 debut for Todd Pletcher. If nothing else, this Maria’s Mon colt demonstrated his affection for the Churchill racing strip when he won the Kentucky Jockey Stakes there last fall.

7-Jackson Bend. I’m just not convinced this son of the Carson City stallion Hear No Evil has the stamina required to win the Kentucky Derby over 10 furlongs. Has a lot of ability and is in the hands of a trainer, Nick Zito, who knows how to bring horses up to a big race.

8-Conveyance.  Presumably will remain at Oaklawn Park for the rescheduled running of the Southwest Stakes, which was cancelled on Monday because of bad weather and will be run this Saturday.

9-Caracortado. We went a long time between geldings winning the Kentucky Derby (Clyde Van Dusen in 1929 to Funny Cide in 2003), but now that there have been two in the last seven (Mine That Bird in 2009), would it be that unusual for a third? California-bred son of Cat Dreams has done nothing wrong in winning all five starts, beginning with a maiden claimer and most recently with his Robert Lewis Stakes victory. Trainer Mike Machowsky (also the breeder) is more than capable, but my caveat for this Cinderalla story is that Caracortado got an absolutely perfect trip under jockey Paul Atkinson, sitting just off the pace of dueling leaders.

10-Tiz Chrome. From first to 10th in a week, this son of Tiznow disappointed in his first try around two turns, but he didn’t get an easy lead, and it’s hard to win wire to wire on Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride track under those circumstances. I’m for second chances.

As far as three-year-old races are concerned, last weekend proved to be a bit of a…washout (pardon the pun). Santa Anita postponed their Saturday card where PDI top ten contenders American Lion and Tiz Chrome were scheduled to go against each other in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Additionally, the Las Virgenes was to feature PDI number 12 Blind Luck, who could be this year’s superfilly  version of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. Fortunately for race fans, these races have been rescheduled for this Saturday the 13th.

On a down note, last week also brought the first deletion from the Derby Trail as Winslow Homer was forced to the sidelines and will miss the Kentucky Derby due to an injury that will take two months to recover from according to his connections.

This week, we’d like to thank James Scully of Brisnet for joining the PDI and are happy to give the racing public a voice by introducing a vote via our Daily Paulick Poll.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

1 - Bob Baffert and I have more in common than a head of grey (or white) hair. Neither one of us had the patience to sit through the old TV show “Short Attention Span Theater,” and we both have a tendency to get distracted by shiny metal objects.

Actually, in Baffert’s case, his distractions come from shiny, fast-moving objects like 2009 champion juvenile Lookin At Lucky, who caught his eye at Keeneland’s sale of 2-year-olds in training, or Tiz Chrome (shiny metal object!), impressive winner of a maiden race at Churchill Downs last fall for Whispering Oaks Farm.

Baffert acquired the latter colt, a son of Tiznow, following that Nov. 1 maiden win, and he now races for the partnership of the Lanni Family Trust, Mercedes Stable and Bernie Schiappa. (In truth, it was actually Schiappa, a car dealer who knows a lot about shiny metal objects, that first saw Tiz Chrome.) Tiz Chrome is one-for-one for his new owners, having scored impressively in a minor stakes at Hollywood Park Dec. 19. He hasn’t gone beyond 6 1/2 furlongs yet, so distance is a question, but this is a flashy colt with a lot of ability. We’ll obviously know more after his next start in this weekend’s Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita, rescheduled after last weekend’s washout.

2 - There’s a lot to like about Buddy’s Saint, a son of Saint Liam who took the late-season Nashua and Remsen Stakes in New York before heading down to Florida to winter. I’ve always preferred late-maturing 2-year-olds as Derby prospects to those who zoom to the head of their class earlier in the season and have little improvement left in them. We’ll find out in the upcoming Fountain of Youth whether the Bruce Levine-trained colt is continuing on the upswing.

3 - Lookin At Lucky is near-perfect after six starts, his lone defeat coming in a heartbreak loss in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Is this son of Smart Strike one of those early-maturing colts that the rest of his foal crop is catching up to? Recent history is not on his side.

4 - Super Saver is a colt with a lot of talent from the deep Todd Pletcher barn (we won’t get into Pletcher’s Derby numbers yet). Son of Maria’s Mon rated on the lead while winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, but it’s tough going wire to wire in the Derby.

5 - Jackson Bend finished a hard-trying second to now-sidelined Winslow Homer in the Holy Bull Stakes in his first start after being transferred to the barn of Hall of Famer Nick Zito, who does know a thing or two about winning the Kentucky Derby. Son of Hear No Evil (by Carson City) has a speed pedigree on top that should have some stamina influence from Cox’s Ridge on bottom side of his pedigree.

6 - I’m not going to second-guess trainer Todd Pletcher’s decision to send Rule down to Louisiana’s Delta Downs, where the son of Roman Ruler won the Jean Lafitte Stakes and Delta Jackpot, the latter Grade 3 race giving him more than enough money to qualify for the Derby field. Mine That Bird came out of Sunland Park to win last year’s Kentucky Derby, so maybe that will be the start of a trend of horses running for slots-rich purses en route to Churchill Downs.

7 - Indian Charlie colt Conveyance gives Hall of Famer Baffert three horses on my top 10 early-season Derby list. He’s opting to send this one to Oaklawn Park for Monday’s Southwest Stakes, following a hard-fought victory in the San Rafael at Santa Anita. Perhaps he’ll move up on the synthetic to dirt switch.

8 - American Lion is a son of Tiznow that gives WinStar Farm a strong early hand in the Triple Crown picture. Well-traveled colt is in the hands of Eoin Harty, who knows how to bring a horse up to a big race. Like Tiz Chrome, he’s only sprinted so far in his brief career, but with that pedigree (out of a Storm Cat mare) you’d have to think he’ll enjoy added distance.

9 - Blind Luck’s victory in the Hollywood Starlet to me was the most visually impressive win by any 2-year-old of either sex in 2009. Hard to believe cleverly named daughter of Pollard’s Vision started out her career in a $40,000 maiden claimer. Doubt trainer Jerry Hollendorfer will send her out against colts, but she does have an explosive turn of foot.

10 - Early in the winter of 2006 I considered Barbaro nothing more than an outstanding turf horse, so I’m not going to fall for that trap again with his full brother Lentenor, even though it took the son of Dynaformer three tries to break his maiden. Let’s see what he can do against winners.

It’s that time of year again. Turf writers, handicappers and bloggers get an extra early start on predicting who will be in the final field of 20 on that first Saturday in May. Is it premature? No doubt. Is the field set in any way? Not on your life. But part of the fun of any sport is to attempt to look into a crystal ball and predict the future.

Which brings us to the second annual Paulick Derby Index this year brought to you by the Simon family’s Vinery LTD. We would very much like to thank our sponsor for making this possible. Additionally, the impressive band of PDI voters, some old faces and some new, are what really make this AP Poll for the Derby Trail work. A special thank you from the Paulick Report to all 25 voters that are not currently on our staff!

Next week, look forward to a more in-depth analysis by Ray Paulick of his top ten and the opportunity for fans to vote on their favorites, thus adding a 28th vote to next week’s poll. We’ll be offering that opportunity Sunday night after the weekend’s races have been run in our daily poll located at www.paulickreport.com.

The list of contenders is wide open this week and should remain so for some time. Are you inclined to go with the early favorite in Lookin at Lucky or hoping for a repeat of last year and searching for the next Mine That Bird? Where did our poll go right? How would you have voted differently? Read through the poll and then let us know where you stand.

By Ray Paulick
With the Experimental Free Handicap released today, it seems the appropriate time to take a look at the 2-year-old winners of 2009 American Graded Stakes. There are a few trends among the 33 individual 2-year-old AGS winners that jumped off the data pages compiled by the Paulick Report. Among them: homebreds are the exception and not the rule when it comes to winning 2-year-old graded stakes; Todd Pletcher was the king among trainers of 2-year-olds; and finally, despite the ready to race aspect of 2-year-old auctions, graduates of those sales do not appear to have much of an edge when it comes to winning an AGS race at two.

Here are some nuggets of information that came out of the research:

-Of the 33 2-year-old AGS winners, 11 of them were repeat AGS winners in the United States; champion 2-year-old male Lookin at Lucky was the only one to win more than two individual AGS races (Best Pal Stakes, Del Mar Futurity, Norfolk, CashCall Futurity).

-Todd Pletcher trained five of the AGS winners: Ailalea,. Devil May Care, Interactif, Rule and Super Saver; Steve Asmussen had three (Hot Dixie Chick, Thiskyhasnolimit and Western Smoke); training two each were Wayne Catalano, Rick Dutrow, Wayne Lukas, and Jerry Romans. So nearly 50% (16 of 33) of the 2-year-old AGS winners came from six barns. Interestingly, Lookin at Lucky was Bob Baffert’s only 2-year-old AGS winner.

-Seven stallions accounted for 14 of the 33 AGS winners (42%); siring two AGS winners each were Broken Vow, Dixie Union, Maria’s Mon, Northern Afleet, Pulpit, Roman Ruler, and Tiznow.

-Bill Casner and Kenny Troutt’s WinStar Farm had an outstanding year with 2-year-olds, breeding and racing a trio of AGS winners: Rule, Super Saver, and American Lion (the latter bred in partnership with William Lockridge). In fact those three represent half of the six AGS winners who raced for their breeders. That means that 27 of the 33 AGS winners were either sold at public auction or privately by their breeder. One that wasn’t sold was Nancy Mazzony’s homebred 2-year-old filly champion, She Be Wild.

-Of those sold at public auction (our statistics do not include horses offered and not sold or those catalogued and withdrawn), more came from Keeneland’s September yearling sale than anywhere else. Fourteen graduates of that sale went on to become 2009 AGS winners as 2-year-olds; with three each were Fasig-Tipton Kentucky’s yearling sale and Keeneland’s November mixed sale (weanlings). Two AGS winners came out of the 2009 Fasig-Tipton Calder 2-year-old. OBS had one graduate each from its February, March and April 2-year-old sale go on to win an AGS race, and one from its August yearling sale. Lookin at Lucky was the lone AGS winner sold at the Keeneland April sale of 2-year-olds.

-All told, 19 yearling sale graduates won AGS races at 2; six came from 2-year-old sales, and three were sold as weanlings. These stats include several horses that were pinhooked from year to the next. By age, the weanlings sold represented 11% of the total 2-year-old AGS winners; yearlings 68%, and 2-year-olds, 21%. If we total all foals of 2007 sold at auction as weanlings, yearlings or 2-year-olds, the breakdown is very similar: 15% weanlings; yearlings 66%; and 2-year-olds 19%.

-Finally, Taylor Made Sales Agency and Gainesway were the top two consignors of horses that went on to win AGS races at two. Taylor Made had five (Ailalea, Backtalk, Devil May Care, Negligee and Who’s Up. Gainesway sold three: Buddy’s Saint, Noble’s Promise, and Who’s Up (who sold as a weanling by Taylor and as a yearling by Gainesway).

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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The upcoming long holiday weekend provides an opportunity for three tracks–Hollywood Park, Aqueduct and Churchill Downs—to run a combined total of 16 graded stakes, many with entrants coming out of the Breeders’ Cup Championships held earlier this month at Santa Anita.

Churchill Downs has carded the 1 1/8-mile G2 Falls City as the 11th of 12 races on Thursday. Unbridled Belle hopes to go out a winner before she heads for the breeding shed. The 6-year-old mare has accumulated almost $1.9 million in earnings and will face off against another millionaire, Swift Temper, who has gotten the best of Unbridled Belle in their three previous meetings this year.

Friday’s feature race, the G2 Clark Handicap, has attracted a stellar field of competitors, including Macho Again, Bullsbay, Etched, Blame and Einstein, the highweight in the 1 1/8-mile dirt event. The 7-year-old will start from the far outside post (14) in what will be the 30th and final race of his career. With regular rider Julien Leparoux in Japan, Rajiv Maragh will take over in the irons. The G3 River City Handicap (race 9) at 1 1/8 miles on the turf, is on the undercard.

Churchill’s meet closes on Saturday with the running of twin G2 stakes, the Golden Rod for fillies, and the Kentucky Jockey Club for colts and geldings. Sassy Image, winner of the opening weekend’s Pocahontas Stakes, as well as the runner-up in that race, Decelerator, are expected to start. The upset winner of the Iroquois, Thiskyhasnolimit, is the 2-1 favorite in the field of nine in the Kentucky JC. Both races are 1 1/16 miles on the main track.

Aqueduct hosts the G3 Fall Highweight on Thursday, the G2 Top Flight Handicap on Friday, and a quartet of graded stakes on Saturday, highlighted by the G1 Hill ‘n’ Dale Cigar Mile. Pyro, winner of the Forego and Kodiak Kowboy, victor of the Vosburgh, are co-highweights at 120 lbs. They will be facing DeFrancis winner Vineyard Haven, Bribon and Driven By Success. With the coupling of Pyro and Vineyard Haven, there will be only four betting interests.

Also on the Aqueduct’s Saturday card is the running of the 1 1/8-mile G1 Gazelle for 3-year-old fillies. Stardom Bound will be in the spotlight here; she had a string of five consecutive G1 wins to her credit, before finishing third in the Ashland in April. This will be her first start on the dirt. The other two graded stakes will focus on juveniles–the G2 Demoiselle for fillies, and the G2 Remsen for males, both run at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. The winners of these races may be pointing to a race on the first Saturday in May next year.

The G1 Citation kicks off the three-day Hollywood Park Turf Festival on Friday and features a field of ten older horses going 1 1/16 miles. Cowboy Cal, winner of the Oak Tree Mile, will attempt to redeem himself in the Citation after a 10th-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Proudinsky and Fluke, also entered in the Citation, will both be saddled by Bobby Frankel’s long-time assistant Humberto Ascanio, who is now the trainer of record for the late Hall of Famer’s starters.

Saturday’s Hollywood stakes are the G1 Matriarch for fillies and mares going a mile on grass, supported by the G3 Generous, for two-year-olds, also at a mile. The Matriarch pits two outstanding mares against each other—Ventura and Diamondrella. Both were last seen at the Breeders’ Cup; Ventura was second in the Filly & Mare Sprint, while Diamondrella ran a disappointing 11th in the Turf Sprint. Following the Breeders’ Cup, Diamondrella changed barns and is now with jockey-turned-trainer Gary Stevens.

Hollywood’s Turf Festival concludes on Sunday with the running of the G1 Hollywood Derby and the G3 Miesque (a mile for 2-year-old fillies). In the 1 ¼-mile Hollywood Derby, we can expect to see Take the Points square off against Battle of Hastings. Another intriguing entry is Black Bear Island. Now with Julio Canani, the son of Sadler’s Wells was previously conditioned by Aiden O’Brien.