FEARLESS ECLIPSE PREDICTIONS
Monday, January 26th, 2009There are many questions to be answered at tonight’s Eclipse Awards from Miami Beach, Fla. (from which I’ll be dutifully live blogging starting sometime after the 5:30 p.m. cocktail hour begins and before TVG goes on the air with its 7 p.m. coverage). Who will get the crown as 2008 Horse of the Year? Will it be the reigning champion, Curlin, or the unbeaten filly, Zenyatta?
Inquiring minds may want to know…will Michael Iavarone of IEAH Stable have more bodyguards than Jess Jackson? How big will Frank Stronach’s posse be? Who will take the first punch at the publisher of the Paulick Report? Iavarone (I’m no fan of his), trainer Steve Asmussen (I wrote that no trainer with a pending drug positive deserves an Eclipse Award) or my former boss, Bloodhorse publisher Stacy Bearse (who needs no further introduction to our faithful readers)? We’ll try to answer those questions and more, going behind the scenes as best we can.
Many of the Eclipse Award winners are obvious (both of the 2-year-old divisions, 3-year-old male, older male and female, jockey and trainer), but there actually is suspense in several categories (3-year-old filly, male and female turf, male and female sprinter, owner and breeder). Unless, of course, someone at the sponsoring organizations – the National Thoroughbred Racing Association, Daily Racing Form or National Turf Writers Association – has leaked the results, something that has happened in the past.
Without access to the leaks, here are my predictions for the night (on the Eclipse Awards front):
2-year-old male – Midshipman (a slam dunk)
2-year-old filly – Stardom Bound (should be a unanimous vote)
3-year-old male – Big Brown (there might be a few stragglers that voted against him)
3-year-old filly – Proud Spell over Eight Belles (performance should win out over sentiment)
older male – Curlin (slam dunk)
older female – Zenyatta (should be unanimous, though I am reminded that some sports writers didn’t vote for Rickey Henderson to get in the Baseball Hall of Fame)
male sprinter – Midnight Lute (if it’s like boxing, the defending champion should have an advantage, and we’re like boxing, right?). This may have been Bob Baffert’s best training achievement in his career (and he could have three Eclipse winners this year without being a finalist for outstanding trainer!)
female sprinter – Indian Blessing over Ventura (the anti-synthetic track votes may come into play here, diminishing Ventura’s win over Indian Blessing in the Breeders’ Cup)
outstanding owner – Unimaginative voters will probably give this to Stronach Stable, based on the highest earnings (though the 2008 leading owner by money won was Zayat Stable, who was not a finalist). Of the three finalists (Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin Racing is the third), IEAH deserves the award if it is strictly based on racetrack performance
outstanding breeder – tough one to call. Adena Springs has the numbers, but the other finalists, Stonerside and WinStar, had very good results from smaller foal crops. With Robert and Janice McNair producing two Breeders’ Cup winners (Midshipman and Raven’s Pass) for Stonerside, they get the nod
trainer – Steve Asmussen, an outstanding horseman and the certain landslide winner (though as I stated in an earlier column, I believe medication positives during the year in question should disqualify individuals or horses from awards consideration)
jockey – Garrett Gomez. Another landslide
apprentice Jockey and steeplechase horse – no clue
Horse of the Year – Curlin, by a comfortable margin…a deserving two-time champion
Tune in to the Paulick Report later tonight to see how wrong I can be!
UPDATE: Due to multiple braincell failure, two hotly contested categories were omitted from the original post.
male turf — Einstein over Conduit. A season of top performances in North America should rate higher than a single Breeders’ Cup win.
female turf — Forever Together (for the same reason as Einstein, even though Goldikova’s BC Mile triumph was nothing short of breathtaking.
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