Posts Tagged ‘smart strike’

By Ray Paulick
Gulf Coast Farms, the Florida-based operation of veterinarian Jerry Bailey and Utah horseman Lance Robinson, is known more for its pinhooking of yearlings to 2-year-old sales than for breeding. However, 10 weeks into the 2010 racing season, Gulf Coast is one of two breeders in North America to be represented by a pair of American Graded Stakes winners (the other being the Overbrook Farm owned by the family of the late W.T. Young).

Both of Gulf Coast’s AGS winners are on the road to the Triple Crown. The first is Conveyance, a two-time AGS winner in 2010, having captured the San Rafael Stakes at Santa Anita and the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park—both Grade 3 races. Conveyance, originally purchased by Legends Racing for $240,000 at the 2008 Keeneland September yearling sale, is now owned by Zabeel Racing, an entity owned by a son of Sheikh Mohammed of Dubai. The Indian Charlie colt was produced from a mare by Holy Bull, who ran the worst race of his life in the Kentucky Derby but went on to be the 1994 3-year-old champion male and Horse of the Year.

The second, of course, is 2009 juvenile champion Lookin At Lucky, who made his season’s debut last week at Oaklawn Park in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes—a race that attracted two other Grade 1 winners, runner-up Noble’s Promise and third-place finisher Dublin. Lookin At Lucky, a son of Smart Strike out of Private Feeling, by Belong to Me, races for the partnership of Mike Pegram, Paul Weitman and Karl Watson. He was purchased by Baffert on their behalf for $475,000 at last year’s Keeneland April sale of 2-year-olds in training. Six months earlier, Bailey and Robinson entered Lookin At Lucky in the Keeneland September sale but bought him back for just $35,000 because the veterinary report on him showed several “minor” physical issues. (Click here <http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/american-graded-stakes-standings-brought-to-you-by-keeneland-lookin-at-a-bargain/> to learn more about those issues, which obviously have not prevented the colt from compiling an outstanding record of six wins in seven starts, including three Grade 1 wins, and earnings of $1,423,000.)

Though they may be known better for their pinhooking acumen, Bailey and Robinson have a large broodmare band in excess of 100, and it’s no surprise they are successful in this end of the business along with getting horses ready for 2-year-old sales. Both are consummate horseman, Bailey having years of experience running his own business along with a stint as farm veterinarian and manager of E.K. Gaylord’s Lazy E. Ranch in Oklahoma, and Robinson plying his trade as a professional rodeo cowboy for more than 15 years.

If you want to call someone an “accidental” breeder of an American Graded Stakes winner, that description might be more fitting for two trainers who have produced AGS winners of 2010: trainers Bob Baffert and Mike Machowsky.

Baffert is the breeder of Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap winner Misremembered, co-owned by his wife Jill and their good friend George Jacobs. Baffert probably didn’t envision winning the Big ‘Cap and more than $1 million with the offspring of the mare, Beyond Perfection (by Quack), when he bid $7,000 to buy her at the Keeneland January horses of all ages sale in 2005—but that’s exactly what Misremembered has done. In this business, you can be good, but it also helps to be lucky.

Machowsky is the breeder, co-owner and trainer of Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes winner Caracortado. The 3-year-old gelded son of Cat Dreams was produced by Mons Venus, by Maria’s Mon. Machowsky bought Mons Venus for $45,000 on behalf of some clients at the Keeneland 2002 September yearling sale. After the filly kept having ankle problems, Machowsky told the owners she probably would never race and suggested they breed her. When they said they weren’t interested, the trainer contacted a friend in California who was standing the young Storm Cat stallion Cat Dreams and bred Mons Venus to him. Caracortado went on to win his first five races, including the Lewis, before losing for the first time in last Saturday’s Grade 2 San Felipe.

Mons Venus is the second mare Machowsky ever bred.

This only proves there are many ways to breed a winner of an American Graded Stakes race. You can cultivate the best bloodlines, do all the planning and research in the world, but sometimes the most important ingredient is good fortune.

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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By Ray Paulick
With Santa Anita running extra American Graded Stakes last weekend due to the cancellations the previous week because of drainage problems with the Pro-Ride synthetic track, there were 13 AGS races run over the three-day President’s Day weekend. One stakes, the Southwest at Oaklawn, was lost on President’s Day because of bad weather and has been rescheduled for this Saturday.

A quick review of the 13 races shows there was a parade of chalk into the winner’s circles, with eight favorites winning for a 61.5% rate, nearly double the national average of roughly 33% for all races run in North America.

Four trainers doubled up on AGS victories over the Feb. 13-15 weekend: Todd Pletcher (Rule in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs and Munnings in the Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship at Gulfstream Park); Mike Mitchell (Kays and Jays in the Hurricane Bertie at Gulfstream Park and St. Trinians in the Santa Maria Handicap at Santa Anita); Jerry Hollendorfer (Blind Luck in the Las Virgenes and Tuscan Evening in the Buena Vista Handicap, both at Santa Anita); and Christopher Grove (Greenspring in the General George Handicap and Sweet Goodbye in the Barbara Fritchie Handicap, both at Laurel).

There have been 38 AGS races run so far this year, with 18 of the winning horses having sold at public auction (RNAs are not included). Of those 18, eight of them have sold for less than $100,000. Three of those eight sold on two different occasions for less than $100,000—Kinsale King, for $27,000 at the Keeneland September yearling sale and $67,000 at the Barretts May sale of 2-year-olds in training; Cat by the Tale, for $75,000 at the Keeneland September sale and then for $52,000 as a 3-year-old at the Keeneland January horses of all ages sale; and Jeranimo, for $50,000 at the OBS August yearling sale and $70,000 at the Barretts May sale.

At the other end of the spectrum is Munnings, the highest-priced auction horse to win an AGS race so far in 2010, having been purchased by Demi O’Byrne for $1.7 million at the Fasig-Tipton Calder February sale of 2-year-olds in training. Leprechaun Racing pinhooked him at that sale after buying the son of Speightstown for $150,000 at Fasig-Tipton’s August select yearling sale.

Keeneland’s September sale, the largest yearling sale in the world, continues to dominate as expected, with 12 of its graduates winning AGS races thus far in 2010.

Eaton Sales and Taylor Made Sales Agency, the two biggest-volume consignors, each have sold three AGS winners of 2010 (all sold at Keeneland September); Gainesway and Warrendale Sales are next on the list of consignors of 2010 AGS winners, with two each.

El Corredor and Smart Strike are the only two sires to be represented by two AGS winners thus far in 2010. El Corredor, who stands at Hill ‘n’ Dale for $15,000, has sired Santa Ysabel Stakes winners Crisp and Col. E.R. Bradley Handicap winner El Caballo. Smart Strike, who stands for $75,000 at Lane’s End, has sired San Fernando Stakes winner Papa Clem and La Canada Stakes winner Striking Dancer.

Edited Press Release

The 2010 stud fee for two-time Horse of the Year CURLIN, who stands at Mr. and Mrs. William S. Farish’s Lane’s End Farm near Versailles, Kentucky, has been reduced to $40,000 stands and nurses.

In a statement released today, majority owner Jess Jackson discussed the decision:

“We are delighted with the three CURLIN foals that we’ve seen so far, and are eagerly awaiting our home bred CURLIN babies.

We also know that times are tough for our friends in the breeding business. To continue to attract the best book of mares for CURLIN and further help our breeders, we have decided to lower CURLIN’s fee for the 2010 breeding season to $40,000.”

A classic winner of seven Grade 1 events, CURLIN is North America’s richest racehorse with earnings of $10,501,800. CURLIN, who entered stud last year, is by Lane’s End’s two-time leading sire Smart Strike.

By Ray Paulick
Buyers at the 2008 Keeneland September yearling sale who stopped by the Taylor Made Sales Agency barn to inspect Hip 1738 would have been looking at a bay colt by leading sire Smart Strike out of a young mare bred and raced by William S. Farish in partnership with Temple Webber Jr.

They would have been looking at a colt whose year-older half brother by Mr. Greeley, broke his maiden impressively at first asking at Saratoga a month earlier and who was entered in the Grade 2 Futurity Stakes at Saratoga on Sept. 13, one day before the yearling colt was to enter the sales ring.

But many of the potential buyers might also have been looking at a veterinarian’s report that said the colt had “mild sesamoiditis” in his left front ankle … “moderate mid-sagittal ridge erosion” in his right front ankle … “moderate sesamoiditis” in his left hind ankle … and a “post-operative lateral trochlear ridge divot” in both his left and right stifle.

Unfortunately, the details of that vet report may be what most buyers focused on, for despite the fact its conclusion was a “favorable prognosis” for racing soundness the colt was bought back by his breeders for $35,000, which wouldn’t even cover his sire’s 2006 stud fee of $50,000.

Who was the colt these buyers were looking at?

It was Lookin at Lucky, who went on to be a $475,000 graduate of the 2009 Keeneland April sale of 2-year-olds in training and is the probable champion 2-year-old Eclipse Award-winning male on the strength of four victories in American Graded Stakes races, including the Grade 1 trio of the Del Mar Futurity, Norfolk Stakes and CashCall Futurity. His only defeat in six starts came when beaten a nose in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by Vale of York.

Lookin at Lucky is just the latest example of a horse offered at public auction whose sale price was greatly diminished because of perceived physical problems that knowledgeable veterinary professionals believe would not impair its ability to train and race. He will be, as Mark Taylor of Taylor Made Sales Agency said recently, the 2010 poster child to help educate buyers about how physical or radiograph imperfections do not have to affect a horse’s racing ability or soundness.

Mark’s older brother, Duncan Taylor, who probably couldn’t dunk a basketball on an eight-foot hoop, often jokes that if NBA scouts drafted players on the basis of radiographs he might have gotten picked ahead of Michael Jordan because his X-rays are perfect.

Veterinarian Jerry Bailey and Lance Robinson, partners in Gulf Coast Farm, bred Lookin at Lucky after buying his dam, Private Feeling, for $130,000 from the Lane’s End consignment at the 2004 Keeneland November breeding stock sale. They sold Kensei for $300,000 to Jess Jackson’s Stonestreet Stables at the 2008 Barretts May 2-year-olds in training sale (Kensei went on to win the 2009 Grade 2 Jim Dandy, and Bailey and Robinson sold Private Feeling for $2 million at the 2009 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky November mixed sale).

Robinson and Bailey were high on Kensei’s younger half brother when he was entered in the 2008 Keeneland September sale. But Lookin at Lucky underwent surgery in April 2008 to remove OCD fragments from both stifles, and the aforementioned report prepared by the consignor’s veterinarian indicated other minor issues that the vet did not believe would prevent the colt from racing soundness. But, as has been the case with a long list of successful racehorses who did not sell well because of perceived issues, the report discouraged buyers who feel a horse is stigmatized by the letters OCD (which stands for osteochondritis dissecans),

So Bailey and Robinson put the colt in training and pointed him for Keeneland’s 2-year-old sale in the spring of 2009, offering him in the name of the Jerry Bailey Sales Agency. He caught the eye of trainer Bob Baffert after a one-furlong breeze in 10 seconds and brought the top price of $475,000 on the sale’s second day. Baffert, who said Lookin at Lucky X-rayed fine before the 2-year-old sale, told the Paulick Report he was unaware of the issues that accompanied the colt into the sale ring the previous September. Baffert bought the colt in the name of Mike Pegram, who now races Lookin at Lucky in partnership with Karl Watson and Paul Weitman.

“There’s a lot of times when you’re looking for athletes that it’s better not to have too much information,” the Hall of Fame trainer said. “There are so many horses that don’t ‘vet’ that turn out to be runners. I’ve trained horses that had OCD lesions and it never bothered them.”

Mark Taylor, who serves as president of the Consignors and Commercial Breeders Association, said one of the organization’s primary goals is to educate buyers about veterinary issues that come up at Thoroughbred auctions. To that end, the CBA has published several informative and useful booklets, including one that specifically deals with OCD. (Click here for a copy of that booklet, written by Frank Mitchell, and here to learn more about the CBA.)

Taylor said another one of the CBA’s projects is to gather racing results data for horses in various categories assigned by veterinarians based on radiographs and their prognosis for racing soundness made at the time they were offered at public auction. “Just at Taylor Made, we’ve got 90% of the X-ray reports of all the Grade 1 winners we’ve offered, starting with horses born in 1980 to the present,” he said. “It’s amazing some of the X-ray train wrecks that have gone on to be really good horses.”

Lookin at Lucky wasn’t one of those train wrecks. But the minor issues he had were discouraging enough to potential buyers that they passed on an opportunity to buy a horse who turned into a three-time Grade 1 winner and the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby. That’s the kind of horse that everyone is looking for.

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

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I’ve always been surprised at the habits of many buyers at yearling sales…they sometimes remind me of lemmings marching to the sea, making decisions without logic or rationality. I once asked a leading buyer why he often spent so much money on yearlings by unproven first-year sires, a practice that is common enough to inflate the yearling average for those new sires. His response was simple: “They haven’t failed yet.”

That philosophy makes no sense to me, for it would seem far more pragmatic to look for undervalued proven stallions than to roll the dice on a group of newcomers whose chance of succeeding are somewhere between 5-10%.

Another unexplainable practice of yearling buyers is their disdain of foals born in the month of May. On average, it would make sense that May foals would be smaller than their January-April counterparts, so perhaps buyers at summer or fall yearling sales are simply unable to project how that smaller horse might look as a 2- or 3-year-old.

Some years ago, statistics accompanying an article I wrote for Bloodhorse’s MarketWatch newsletter, showed that May foals were only marginally behind earlier season foals in performance standards (stakes wins, money won), but their average yearling prices were much, much lower. Where I come from, that makes May foals a bargain.

Rob Whiteley, who operates the successful Liberation Farm breeding operation, came to the same conclusion in an article he wrote this week for the Thoroughbred Daily News. From the winning Kentucky Derby exacta of May foals Mine That Bird and Pioneerof the Nile to a review of May foals that have won Breeders’ Cup races, Whiteley makes a compelling argument that buyers should pay far more attention to May foals than they traditionally have. We’d like to thank Sue Finley of TDN for granting reprint rights of Whiteley’s article. – Ray Paulick

By Rob Whiteley
As a populist horseman, it makes me smile when a relatively obscure horse comes out of the hinterlands and beats up on a bunch of fashionably bred horses who are sired by generally over-priced, over-hyped, and over-bred stallions. And it turns my smile into a broad grin to observe that Mine That Bird is a mid-May foal.

To be fair, the valiant runner-up, Pioneerof the Nile, is regally bred and fully deserving of his cost of production. His bloodlines and hefty stud fee came through in a brave display of talent and determination, and those who played him unsuccessfully in the exotics only have themselves to blame for not taking home a big piece of the track. Like the item we look past in the front of the refrigerator, it was right there to see. Pioneerof the Nile is also a May foal, and if you had played a May foal exacta, you would have received $2,074.80 for a $2 exacta box.

(Ed. Note: A $2 exacta box with all of the May foals in the Derby would’ve cost $40. Atomic Rain (Smart Strike), Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor) and third-place finisher Musket Man (Yonaguska) are all May foals as well. A $1 triple box on the quintet would’ve set you back just $60, and returned $20,750.30)

In light of the continuous racing success achieved by May foals year after year, I am at a loss to rationally understand how that success fails to translate into the sales scene where May foals, as a group, bring approximately 35 percent less than their counterparts. For some in-grained reason, rooted in hearsay and perpetuated by the typical word of mouth momentum that spreads other horse industry falsehoods and myths, May foals get a bad rap at the sales, and are often discounted accordingly in the ring. This is such nonsense. The stigma on May foals that floats around on the winds of ignorance has no basis in fact.

It can even be persuasively argued that May foals actually have a slight advantage over other foals, as May foals are born according to a horse’s innate and natural spring-time predispositions, and with the most favorable environmental conditions.

Savvy buyers who keep up with the details of racing know that May foals, as a group, race as successfully as foals born in other months, and better than foals born in January. And the sharpest horsemen and pinhookers know that a few days or even weeks generally make little difference in a horse’s early development.

The most important factors in a horse’s ability to perform early involve genetically based precocity, balance, athleticism, and mental maturity, not date of birth. Each horse has its own genetically wound clock, and horses have wide-ranging differences in the rate that they develop, no matter which month they might be born in. Like foals born in January or February or any month, some May foals may be forward enough to zip along at two-year-old sales, while others may not be mature enough to race effectively until the middle of their three-year-old years, or later. Horses, like humans and other mammals, follow their own genetic blueprint.

When it is their time to perform, however, May foals truly hold their own, even as two-year-olds.

Except for the month of January, the fewest number of foals are born in May, yet they account for 10 percent of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile colt and filly champions. Furthermore, as May foals mature, their success rate in certain top level venues can be jaw-dropping. May foals have won a stunning 50 percent of the last 10 Breeders’ Cup Distaffs (including, Azeri, Round Pond, Spain, and Escena). And May foals have won over 25 percent of all Breeders’ Cup Mile races.

Despite the impressive frequency with which May foals find the winner’s circle in big races, however, a May foal may not win the Preakness this year. Instead, a magnificent January foal named Rachel Alexandra may be brilliant enough to outrun the boys, no matter when they were born (if she can adjust to a new groom, a new trainer, and new routines). But the Belmont, please take note, is entirely a different matter because of the extraordinary potency of the May foal factor.

The May foal factor is the strongest available predictor of Belmont success–far stronger than the most sophisticated figs or Beyer numbers–because May foals, incredibly, have won nearly 40 percent of the last 15 runnings of the Belmont (including, Afleet Alex, Lemon Drop Kid, Thunder Gulch, Touch Gold, Victory Gallop, and Mine That Bird’s own daddy, Birdstone). Therefore, given the historical dominance by May foals in this mile-and-a-half event, and given the Bird’s paternal family connection and the probable presence of steadfast Pioneerof the Nile, we could even be looking at the same May foal quinella we witnessed in the Derby. In any event, it is time we give May foals the respect they deserve, at the sales and on the track.

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By Ray Paulick

Lane’s End Farm is expected to announce that reigning Horse of the Year Curlin will enter stud at the Versailles, Ky., farm in 2009 for a live foal stud fee of $75,000, the Paulick Report has learned. Lane’s End is owned by William S. Farish, vice chairman of the Jockey Club and former ambassador to Great Britain for President George W. Bush.

“Curlin has proven himself across two continents with 16 starts, the honor of 2007 Horse of the Year and the greatest North American money-earner in racing history,” Jackson said in the Nov. 15 announcement that Curlin would enter stud in 2009. “He always gave it his all and has done everything we have asked of him. I am proud to announce that he will start a new career in 2009 and contribute his soundness, stamina, durability and athleticism to the breed. I am looking forward to seeing his foals compete and possibly exceed his unequaled racing record.”

Curlin, who began his career under the care of Helen Pitts and was transferred to trainer Steve Asmussen after breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Park early in 2007, retires with record earnings of $10,501,800. He won 11 of 16 starts, with two seconds and two thirds. He won seven Grade 1 races: the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup, consecutive runnings of the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Woodward, Preakness and Stephen Foster Handicap. Bred in Kentucky by Fares Farm, he sold for $57,000 at the Keeneland September yearling sale. Jackson, Satish Sanan and George Bolton bought at 80% interest in Curlin through bloodstock agent John Moynihan for about $3 million after the colt’s maiden win. Jackson eventually bought Sanan and Bolton’s interests.

Curlin’s sire, Smart Strike, stands at Lane’s End for $150,000. Also joining the 2009 roster at Lane’s End is War Pass, the 2007 2-year-old male champion and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile who will stand for $30,000 live foal.

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By Ray Paulick

Curlin will be retired to stud in 2009 to a yet-to-be-determined farm and his racing career is over unless “an appropriate venue and purse are offered" for one more race in 2008, the reigning Horse of the Year’s majority owner Jess Jackson said.

All inquiries for breeding seasons to Curlin for qualified mares should be directed to Stonestreet Farms director Lesley Howard (e-mail address Lesley.Howard@stonestreetfarms.com, or by calling 859 244-2306).

Curlin, the richest North American-trained horse in history with earnings of $10,501,800, will be kept in training for one more potential race in 2008, though in a report in the New York Times Jackson ruled out a run in the Dec. 7 Japan Cup Dirt because of quarantine complications. He also told the Times he plans to breed at least 20 of his best mares from a total of over 100 that Stonestreet Farms maintains.

“If an appropriate venue and purse are offered, we would consider one more race in 2008 for Curlin,” Jackson said in a statement.

“Curlin has proven himself across two continents with 16 starts, the honor of 2007 Horse of the Year and the greatest North American money-earner in racing history,” he continued. “He always gave it his all and has done everything we have asked of him. I am proud to announce that he will start a new career in 2009 and contribute his soundness, stamina, durability and athleticism to the breed. I am looking forward to seeing his foals compete and possibly exceed his unequaled racing record.”

Curlin’s Accomplishments:

- 2007 Horse of the Year.

- Greatest North American money-earner in racing history with earnings of $10,501,800.00

Major wins:

2007 Preakness Stakes

2007 Jockey Club Gold Cup

2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic

2008 Dubai World Cup

2008 Jockey Club Gold Cup

Race Record:

2007       2008

Gulfstream Park Maiden Race — First

Rebel Stakes — First

Arkansas Derby - First

Kentucky Derby - Third

Preakness Stakes - First

Belmont Stakes - Second

Haskell Invitational - Third

Jockey Club Gold Cup - First

Breeders’ Cup Classic - First        

Jaguar Trophy Handicap - First

Dubai World Cup - First

Stephen Foster Handicap - First

Man o’ War Stakes (turf)- Second

Woodward Stakes - First

Jockey Club Gold Cup — First

Breeders’ Cup Classic (synthetic track) — Fourth

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

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