Posts Tagged ‘sheikh mohammed’

By Ray Paulick
Gulf Coast Farms, the Florida-based operation of veterinarian Jerry Bailey and Utah horseman Lance Robinson, is known more for its pinhooking of yearlings to 2-year-old sales than for breeding. However, 10 weeks into the 2010 racing season, Gulf Coast is one of two breeders in North America to be represented by a pair of American Graded Stakes winners (the other being the Overbrook Farm owned by the family of the late W.T. Young).

Both of Gulf Coast’s AGS winners are on the road to the Triple Crown. The first is Conveyance, a two-time AGS winner in 2010, having captured the San Rafael Stakes at Santa Anita and the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park—both Grade 3 races. Conveyance, originally purchased by Legends Racing for $240,000 at the 2008 Keeneland September yearling sale, is now owned by Zabeel Racing, an entity owned by a son of Sheikh Mohammed of Dubai. The Indian Charlie colt was produced from a mare by Holy Bull, who ran the worst race of his life in the Kentucky Derby but went on to be the 1994 3-year-old champion male and Horse of the Year.

The second, of course, is 2009 juvenile champion Lookin At Lucky, who made his season’s debut last week at Oaklawn Park in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes—a race that attracted two other Grade 1 winners, runner-up Noble’s Promise and third-place finisher Dublin. Lookin At Lucky, a son of Smart Strike out of Private Feeling, by Belong to Me, races for the partnership of Mike Pegram, Paul Weitman and Karl Watson. He was purchased by Baffert on their behalf for $475,000 at last year’s Keeneland April sale of 2-year-olds in training. Six months earlier, Bailey and Robinson entered Lookin At Lucky in the Keeneland September sale but bought him back for just $35,000 because the veterinary report on him showed several “minor” physical issues. (Click here <http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/american-graded-stakes-standings-brought-to-you-by-keeneland-lookin-at-a-bargain/> to learn more about those issues, which obviously have not prevented the colt from compiling an outstanding record of six wins in seven starts, including three Grade 1 wins, and earnings of $1,423,000.)

Though they may be known better for their pinhooking acumen, Bailey and Robinson have a large broodmare band in excess of 100, and it’s no surprise they are successful in this end of the business along with getting horses ready for 2-year-old sales. Both are consummate horseman, Bailey having years of experience running his own business along with a stint as farm veterinarian and manager of E.K. Gaylord’s Lazy E. Ranch in Oklahoma, and Robinson plying his trade as a professional rodeo cowboy for more than 15 years.

If you want to call someone an “accidental” breeder of an American Graded Stakes winner, that description might be more fitting for two trainers who have produced AGS winners of 2010: trainers Bob Baffert and Mike Machowsky.

Baffert is the breeder of Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap winner Misremembered, co-owned by his wife Jill and their good friend George Jacobs. Baffert probably didn’t envision winning the Big ‘Cap and more than $1 million with the offspring of the mare, Beyond Perfection (by Quack), when he bid $7,000 to buy her at the Keeneland January horses of all ages sale in 2005—but that’s exactly what Misremembered has done. In this business, you can be good, but it also helps to be lucky.

Machowsky is the breeder, co-owner and trainer of Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes winner Caracortado. The 3-year-old gelded son of Cat Dreams was produced by Mons Venus, by Maria’s Mon. Machowsky bought Mons Venus for $45,000 on behalf of some clients at the Keeneland 2002 September yearling sale. After the filly kept having ankle problems, Machowsky told the owners she probably would never race and suggested they breed her. When they said they weren’t interested, the trainer contacted a friend in California who was standing the young Storm Cat stallion Cat Dreams and bred Mons Venus to him. Caracortado went on to win his first five races, including the Lewis, before losing for the first time in last Saturday’s Grade 2 San Felipe.

Mons Venus is the second mare Machowsky ever bred.

This only proves there are many ways to breed a winner of an American Graded Stakes race. You can cultivate the best bloodlines, do all the planning and research in the world, but sometimes the most important ingredient is good fortune.

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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This is our first look at American Graded Stakes Standings for 2010, and though it’s early in the year, there are some patterns established that I think we can count on to continue in the coming months.

Trainer Bob Baffert is the leader by American Graded Stakes wins, with three in the first five weeks of 2010, and with several top contenders for the 3-year-old classics, there is no reason to believe he will not double that number before the first Saturday in May. Rick Dutrow and Todd Pletcher have two each, and Pletcher has yet to unleash his deep roster of Triple Crown prospects. Both of his AGS victories were supplied by Quality Road, who at this point has to be considered the top older male in training.

Among jockeys, Robby Albarado and Garrett Gomez have three AGS wins apiece, with four riders with two each: Martin Garcia, Joel Rosario, Chantal Sutherland, and John Velazquez. Gomez and Albarado each ride for top stables and can be expected to win a bunch more AGS races before the year is out.

Zabeel Racing International has two AGS winners, both of which were private purchases over the winter: Richard’s Kid, winner of the Grade 2 San Antonio Handicap, was bought from Arnold Zetcher and is headed to the Dubai World Cup next; and Conveyance, winner of the Grade 3 San Rafael Stakes, was sold Zabeel by Legends Racing after winning his first two starts. Zabeel is the racing stable of Sheikh Mohammed’s eldest son, Sheikh Rashid.

Also with two AGS winners is IEAH Stables, which owns Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap winner Court Vision with Resolute Group Stables and WinStar Farm; and Grade 2 Santa Ynez Stakes winner Amen Hallelujah with Whizway Farms.

Eleven of the 24 individual AGS winners thus far in 2010 were sold at public auction at least once, with three of them consigned by Eaton Sales, and two by Taylor Made Sales Agency. Nine of those 11 auctioned horses were purchased during the Keeneland September yearling sale for prices ranging from $27,000 for Grade 2 Palos Verdes Handicap winner Kinsale King to $310,000 for Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes winner Winslow Homer.

By Ray Paulick
It’s Triple Crown season, so owners and trainers have begun to compile roadmaps to Louisville for their Kentucky Derby hopefuls. So much has changed in recent years with the advent of synthetic tracks, a shuffling of dates for important prep races, and the emergence of new graded stakes with purses fueled by casino money.

The Derby is generally the only race in the Triple Crown that has an oversupply of candidates. Derby Fever strikes otherwise knowledgeable horsemen and sound businessman to the point that getting a runner into the big dance is a small victory of some sorts—even if it means the only picture their horse is in at the finish is the wide-angle shot taken from the blimp flying overhead.

Getting into the Derby field is simple. Your 3-year-old has to rank in the top 20 by money earned in graded or group stakes—not just in America but anywhere in the world. The amount to make the top 20 varies from year to year, but it’s generally somewhere in the $100,000-$150,000 range.

All graded stakes, however, are not created equally.

There was an exception to the graded stakes rule in 2009, when Churchill Downs and Kempton racetrack in England offered a guaranteed spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate to the winner of the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes in March (it also included some travel money). The purpose of the Challenge was to stir up some interest in the Kentucky Derby among bettors in the United Kingdom. The fact it was a one-and-done promotion (not to mention that Churchill canned Tom Aronson, who came up with the idea) suggests it was not successful in its maiden voyage.

The reliance on global graded stakes earnings has worked OK, but there are some obvious pitfalls. What if, for example, Sheikh Mohammed owned the first four finishers in the UAE Derby, a graded stakes in his backyard with a $2-million purse, and he wanted to run all horses in the Kentucky Derby. He might have that opportunity, since the winner of the race gets $1.2 million, the runner-up $400,000, $200,000 to third and $100,000 to fourth.

Then we have the imbalance in American Graded Stakes purses. For example, Uh Oh Bango, last year’s runner-up in the $750,000 Delta Jackpot, a Grade 3 race at Delta Downs, is almost assured to have a starting spot in the Derby, thanks to the $150,000 he earned. Same with the upcoming Sunland Derby, an $800,000 race that will be graded this year for the first time (it’s one of the races Mine That Bird didn’t win last year). The winner and runner-up of that race will likely earn enough to make the field.

That relegates traditionally important Grade 2 races like the Fountain of Youth ($250,000 purse) or San Felipe Stakes ($150,000) to lesser roles on the road to the Kentucky Derby. Doesn’t seem right.

The answer is simple, and it’s not one that I can claim as my idea. Churchill Downs should come up with a comprehensive points scale for top three or top four finishes in Grade 1, Grade 2 and Grade 3 races, so that the runner-up in a Grade 3 race doesn’t get put ahead of the winner in a Grade 2 race just because the Grade 3 race carried a higher purse.  It shouldn’t be that difficult, and will be a much more fair process for determining who deserves to be in the Derby’s starting field.

This will not happen in 2010, as the nominations have already been solicited for this year’s Triple Crown races, and the conditions for each of the races spelled out. But with the contract between Churchill Downs and NBC expiring this year (along with NBC’s contract to televise the Preakness and ABC’s deal on the Belmont), it’s a perfect time to address this type of issue.

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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In an article from the UK’s The Guardian, Greg Wood looks at the future of racing in Dubai and despite a recent financial problem for the Middle Eastern country, poses the idea that the Sheikh’s newest Meydan race course could be the site of a new world championship. He makes the claim that American racing moving back to dirt no longer makes the Breeders’ Cup a viable championship for horses in other parts of the world.

Click here for Greg Wood’s article in The Guardian

Then come back to the Paulick Report and let us know what you think

- Bradford Cummings

Two months after Dutrow got Offlee Wild, he entered the now 4-year-old in a Belmont Park allowance race and won easily. “Rick called to say that’s exactly what we were looking for,” Robbins said. Dutrow wanted to run Offlee Wild next in the Grade 2 Massachusetts Handicap against Funny Cide in June. He was a longshot in the morning line, but got hammered in the early wagering and eventually went off 3-1 second choice behind the previous year’s Derby winner. Offlee Wild won a head-bobbing photo over Funny Cide, giving Robbins and Dutrow their biggest career wins to date.

“We opted for the surgery, even though there was no guarantee he’d ever race again,” Robbins said. “So we sent him to Dr. (Larry) Bramlage at Rood & Riddle.” To hedge his bets, Robbins put together a video highlighting Offlee Wild’s career to that point. (Click here to view.)

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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By Ray Paulick
Should character and rules violations come into play when votes are cast for honors such as horse racing’s Eclipse Awards or Hall of Fame? My belief is that they should.

That question came to mind yesterday when Daily Racing Form first reported on the lawsuit filed by a bank against Ahmed Zayat, whose Zayat Stables was the leading owner in North America in 2008 by earnings and currently ranks third in that category. The bank alleges Zayat owes more than $34 million on equine-related loans.

Zayat wasn’t even one of the three finalists in 2008 Eclipse Award voting in the outstanding owner category. The award went to Frank Stronach’s Stronach Stables, which edged IEAH Stables by one vote, with Godolphin Racing third.

In light of the lawsuit (which, I need to remind readers, is simply the bank’s allegation and does not tell the other side of the story), it will be interesting to see if Eclipse voters again shun Zayat, whose stable earnings are within $300,000 of the leader, the Juddmonte Farms of Saudi Arabian Prince Khalid Abdullah. Zayat Stables has also had a very good year in American Graded Stakes competition, with six individual American Graded Stakes winners. Only the two entities controlled by Dubai’s Sheikh Mohammed have more: Godolphin and Darley have nine AGS winners apiece.

One of Zayat’s biggest stars, Zensational, is a leading contender for champion male sprinter. That begs another question: should a horse be punished by real or perceived misdeeds of his connections? That’s a trickier one to answer.

In Zensational’s case, I don’t thinkan owner’s potential financial problems or character should be a factor in the vote. However, if there are horses trained by individuals who have experienced numerous medication violations (and that isn’t the case with Zensational), I think it’s fair game to bring that into the thought process.

That brings us to Rachel Alexandra, who is a cinch to win the Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old filly and, in my mind, remains the frontrunner for Horse of the Year over the unbeaten Zenyatta. (Full disclosure: I don’t have a vote for Eclipse Awards, but if I did I would vote for Zenyatta over Rachel Alexandra in a very difficult decision.)

Rachel Alexandra is trained by Steve Asmussen, who is fighting a six-month suspension in Texas for a medication violation detected by post-race testing in a horse he trains and that ran at Lone Star Park in 2008 (click here for details). If it was Asmussen’s first violation, I think voters could easily overlook it. But as the Paulick Report disclosed in June 2008, Asmussen has a long list of rules violations over the last 20 years, including a number of medication positives.

Would Asmussen’s lengthy rap sheet be a factor in how I would vote? Yes, it would. Perhaps it would be enough of a factor to tilt the scales in the Rachel Alexandra vs. Zenyatta Horse of the Year vote.

I also believe it’s fair game to look at a trainer’s record of violation when casting a ballot for outstanding trainer. Asmussen won his first Eclipse Award in this category for 2008, and he’s almost certain to repeat this year. But if I had a vote, it would be very difficult for me to cast a ballot in favor of Asmussen over someone like John Shirreffs, the trainer of Zenyatta. In a search of the California Horse Racing Board database, Shirreffs comes up with zero rulings for medication violations.

Character and a track record of following medication rules should matter when we take time to honor the best in Thoroughbred racing.
 

By Ray Paulick
Wednesday’s Lexington Herald-Leader “For the Record” section includes a batch of lawsuits filed by Darley Stud Management LLC against a number of individuals or businesses for money claimed due on a contract: While it’s not that unusual to see a Thoroughbred farm, especially one that stands stallions, file suit against someone they’ve done business with, I don’t ever recall seeing so many suits reported at one time by one specific business. Darley is part of Sheikh Mohammed’s global Thoroughbred empire. The sheikh is also the ruler of Dubai, where Dubai World, a company formed by the emirate government and said to be controlled by Sheikh Mohammed, recently told lenders that it is not in position to stay current on $59 billion in debt to various creditors. The aggregate of the lawsuits filed by Darley Stud Management is less than $500,000.

 Here is the list, as published in the Herald-Leader. A reminder that lawsuits are allegations representing one side of a dispute and there should  be no presumption of guilt:

- Thomas Balak, for $48,400, etc.

- Karen Crouch for $27,200, etc.

- Jon and Danele Durham for $23,100, etc.

- Sarum LLC d/b/a Sarum Farm for $22,840, etc.

- Pamela Ridley for $20.175, etc.

- Owen Kiernan for $10,024, etc.

- William Sorokolit for $67,250, etc.

- Dare to Dream Farm LLC for $13,600, etc.

- Sue Dowling d/b/a Stoneview Farm for $15,900, etc.

- Brian Wallis d/b/a Dormello Stud for $54,400, etc.

- Hidden Lake Farm LLC for $13,450, etc.

- Joe Norton for $22,650, etc.

- Wade Sanderson for $53,166, etc.

- Diane Szymezak for $13,750, etc.

- Mike Maroney for $20,175, etc.

- Carl Vanburger for $20,400, etc.

- Denise Dommel for $20,400, etc.

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

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By Ray Paulick
It should come as no surprise that Sheikh Mohammed is the leading owner of American Graded Stakes winners in 2009 through his Darley and Goldophin racing stables. The ruler of Dubai has invested far more money in his international racing and breeding operation than anyone else in the world, and his American stable has performed exceedingly well this year.

If the Darley and Godolphin Stables are combined, Sheikh Mohammed would be the leading owner by money won, according to Equibase (click here for the list), with earnings of just over $7.5 million. However, they are separate stables and are listed separately in the standings, Darley ranking third behind Mike Gill and Zayat Stables and Godolphin 12th.

But there are a few more American Graded Stakes on the racing calendar, starting this weekend with the Breeders’ Cup. When all the dust settles, I anticipate Darley and Godolphin to have an even more dominating position in the American Graded Stakes standings than they do today.

By Ray Paulick
Eclipse Award voters seem to have developed multiple personalities over the years when it comes to their annual selection of the outstanding owner of Thoroughbred racehorses in North America. How else can you explain that the award goes to a one-horse stable some years (Dot-Sam Stable, owner of John Henry in 1981; Carolyn Hine, owner of Skip Away in 1997); to large-scale operations that rack up stakes victories and money (John Franks, 1983-84, 1993-94; Mr. and Mrs. Eugene Klein, 1985-98; Frank Stronach, 1998-2000, 2008; Kenneth and Sarah Ramsay, 2004); and even to massive claiming stables (Richard Englander 2001-02; Michael Gill, 2005)?

When I think of outstanding owners in this game, I think of people like the late Bob Lewis and his wife Beverly, who brought sportsmanship, competitiveness, decency and fun to horse racing, and, just as importantly, competed at the sport’s highest level. Of course, the Lewises were never voted an Eclipse Award as outstanding owner. What an injustice!

The problem with the outstanding owner vote, and other categories in Eclipse Award competition, is that there are no rules. For horses, voters aren’t given guidelines as to whether races outside of North America should be considered, and there is no minimum number of starts required on this continent (as Canada, for example, requires for its Sovereign Awards) to qualify. Thus, we have a number of Eclipse Award champions, fairly or unfairly, who raced overseas throughout the year, and made just one start (usually in a Breeders’ Cup race) before being voted an Eclipse Award. Some voters have a bias against those one-race wonders and will never vote for them. Others may automatically vote a Breeders’ Cup winners as a divisional champion.

Would guidelines in these equine categories help? Perhaps.

But I think they are really needed and long overdue in the outstanding owner competition (along with the other human awards for breeder, trainer, jockey and apprentice jockey), and the time has come for the three groups that present the Eclipse Awards—the National Thoroughbred Racing Association, Daily Racing Form and National Turf Writers Association—to establish some guidelines to ensure the awards recognize outstanding achievement and excellence in the sport.

How do you measure outstanding achievement and excellence? It’s easy, through the American Graded Stakes program, an objective statistical ranking (Grade 1, 2, 3) of the top 500 races run in the United States. (To keep the Eclipse Awards "North American" and inclusive of Canada, that country’s separate graded stakes program can also be used.) 

Should the award automatically go to the individual with the most graded stakes victories? No. Opportunity (the number of starts or overall size of stable) should be a consideration. Some owners have enjoyed enormous success with a small stable, and they could be overshadowed by a large operation that wins more graded stakes because it has more starters. However, nobody should be given an Eclipse Award for outstanding performance if at least some of those performances didn’t take place at the highest level of the sport.

Simply put, no owner, breeder, trainer, jockey or apprentice jockey should be eligible for an Eclipse Award without winning at least one graded stakes. These are the races that have been used for more than 30 years to rank the top level of the sport. We can argue and debate the merits of some of the grades the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association committee assigns to certain races, but this program has withstood the test of time, and it is now time to put it to use for something as important as the Eclipse Awards.

Along with some Eclipse Award guidelines that require success in graded stakes, the NTRA should distribute to voters detailed information about performance in graded stakes by owners, breeders, trainers, jockeys and apprentice jockeys. That’s one of the reasons the Paulick Report launched this weekly series, American Graded Stakes Standings brought to you by Keeneland. We think it’s important, and I know we are not alone. Our information, while unique, is not complete, and the NTRA should use its association with Equibase to compile more detailed information for voters that includes starts, and 1-2-3 finishes in American Graded Stakes races.

Last year, when Frank Stronach was voted the Eclipse Award as outstanding owner, Bill Finley, writing for espn.com, said the voters “blew it” and “exposed their ignorance” by not giving the award to IEAH stable. His column is worth reading (click here to view it). While not knocking Stronach’s year, Finley pointed out how much better a 2008 IEAH had in graded stakes performances, winning 11 Grade 1 races with eight different horses owned by various partnerships. Stronach won three Grade 1 races with Ginger Punch, the previous year’s champion older filly or mare.

If voting were held today, I’m afraid Michael Gill might get his second Eclipse Award, since he is atop the list of leading owners by money won, which over the years seems to have more influence on voters than any other information they receive in their voting packet.

In my mind, someone like Gill has no business winning an Eclipse Award. While he may be good for the tracks where he runs his claiming horses (he has over 1,800 starts this year, so he makes racing secretaries happy by helping fill races), Gill has not won a single graded stakes race in 2009. In 2005, when he won the Eclipse Award as outstanding owner, Gill won one graded race, the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom Handicap with Upateedle. Under my suggested guidelines, he would have qualified that year, but he certainly would not have gotten my vote. (I have not had an Eclipse Award vote since I resigned from the National Turf Writers Association in 2002, but that’s a story for another day).

In 2009, Sheikh Mohammed is the clear leader in American Graded Stakes wins through his Darley Stable (eight winners, 12 AGS wins) and Godolphin Racing (five AGS winners, five wins). But Zayat Stables is also having a good year with six AGS winners that have won 11 AGS races, as is West Point Thoroughbreds (four AGS winners of six races) and George Strawbridge’s Augustin Stable (three AGS winners, eight races).

Let’s hope, if the NTRA and the others who present the Eclipse Awards fail to develop long-overdue guidelines for voters, then the voters will take it upon themselves to do some homework, to look beyond the top of the money-winning chart, and recognize excellence at the highest end of the game. That’s what champions should be about.

By Ray Paulick
At the suggestion of a Paulick Report reader who thinks the market declines at Monday’s opening session of the Keeneland September yearling sale were overstated, we’ve done a comparison that includes figures from the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale from 2008 and 2009 and the first day of Keeneland from both years.So before we begin Tuesday’s live blog from Keeneland, we’ll spend a few minutes going over those numbers.

The assumption, and one repeated by more than a few people on the sale grounds, is that Keeneland lost some of its book one yearlings to the Saratoga sale, which was revitalized this year by Fasig-Tipton’s new, deep-pocketed owner, Dubai-based Synergy Investments. With a lot of help from Sheikh Mohammed, friend of the new owner and the industry’s leading buyer, the Saratoga sale jumped 45.6% in gross receipts and 11.1% in average, defying the trends at nearly every other Thoroughbred auction. The sale ended up with an average of $328,434, 29% higher than the opening day’s average at Keeneland. Last year’s Saratoga average was $295,738, 18.7% lower than the opening day average at Keeneland.

Do we have something of a role reversal under way?

Adding last year’s Saratoga numbers to the 2008 opening session at Keeneland gives us a total of 276 yearlings sold (122 at Saratoga, 154 at Keeneland) for $94,127,000 ($38,080,000 at Saratoga, $56,047,000 at Keeneland), an average blended price of $341,039.

This year’s two sessions of Saratoga and the opening session of Keeneland saw a combined 267 yearlings sell (160 Saratoga, 107 Keeneland) for $77,498,500 ($52,549,500 Saratoga, $24,949,000 Keeneland), an average price of $290,257.

Thus, the gross revenue from these three select sessions is down 17.7% from 2008 and the average has declined by 14.9%.

I’m not trying to sugarcoat what happened Monday. For those who remember the late 1980s and early ‘90s, yesterday’s session was reminiscent of that era when many breeders were selling yearlings for less than the stud fee invested in them–just cutting their losses. The difference today is that the racing industry, the economic engine at the foundation of Thoroughbred breeding, is lurching through troubled waters. The economics of horse ownership are worse today than they were in the late 1980s, and the crisis within the global economy only makes matters more dire.

Incidentally, just because Sheikh Mohammed stepped up his investments at Saratoga, it didn’t mean there was any slowdown for him at Keeneland. His agent, John Ferguson, led all buyers Monday with 14 bought for $5,152,000, and it will be interesting to see if any of the other foreign-based purchases will end up carrying his Darley or Godolphin colors on the track.

Here are a few addition numbers to ponder:

Taylor Made, Monday’s leading consignor, offered 38 yearlings, and half were bought back and listed as RNA. Eaton Sales (excluding the five Overbrook yearlings that sold without reserves) offered 16 and bought nine back. Three Chimneys offered eight and bought five back. Some smaller consignments like Chesapeake (3 offered), Man o’ War (three) and Middlebrook Farm (2) bought all their horses back.

A few consignors had better luck: Brereton Jones offered six and bought back just one. Gainesway sold four of five offered; Lane’s End sold 14 of 18 and Warrendale sold all four, and Claiborne, Narvick and T. Wayne Sweezey and partners all were 3-for-3 in sales from their Monday offerings.

Will a reset button change things Tuesday? Geoffrey Russell, Keeneland’s director of sales, said his staff believes there are some potential breakout yearlings catalogued today, but he said the same thing about Monday’s book.

We’ll find out soon enough.

11:40 a.m. … Today’s live blog is just like the sale itself–a bit slow to get going. I spent the first hour wandering the grounds and talking with buyers and consignors, and there are very few optimists in this crowd. The negative forces at work include the global economy, market volatility, the credit squeeze, the disappearance of investment money for pinhookers, troubles in the racing industry, a shortage of new owners and departure of some existing ones…you name it. One horseman who buys and sells, after perusing Monday’s results sheet, said: “We should be bowing to Sheikh Mohammed for doing his best to hold this sale up. If it wasn’t for him–and he’s buying horses through other agents besides John Ferguson–it would be a lot worse than it already is, and it’s bad enough.”

Speaking of Sheikh Mohammed, he helped break through the seven-figure ceiling that seemed almost a psychological barrier for the first 245 Hips catalogued. Standing alongside the ruler of Dubai, Ferguson signed the ticket for a $1 million filly by Unbridled’s Song out of the Strawberry Road mare, Strawberry Reason, consigned by Stone Farm as agent. The filly is a half sister to champion Vindication.

12:10 p.m. … Last year’s second session of the Keeneland September yearling sale was a bit stronger in average price than the first day, with 146 yearlings selling for $57,310,000, an average price of $392,534 and a median of $300,000.

The cumulative figures for the first two days in 2008 were: 300 sold for $113,357,000, an average of $377,857 and a median of $300,000.

So far in today’s second session, including the first 40 catalogued, 22 yearlings have sold for $6,600,000, an average of $300,000 and median of $247,500 (the average includes the only $1 million horse sold thus far). There have been 12 RNAs, 35.3% (at an average price of $156,667), somewhat better than Monday’s opening session. The average and median are both up from Monday, too, but still significantly down from 2008.

12:30 p.m. … With the two select sessions nearly 65% complete (Hips 1-268 of the 418 catalogued), here are the cumulative numbers (comparable figures are listed above in the 12:10 p.m. update): 141 sold sold for $34,294,000, an average of $243,220 and median price of $200,000. The number bought back stands at 95, or 40.3% of those through the ring. Today’s RNAs are running at 37%.

2:20 p.m. … Here’s a new one. Hip 296, an Elusive Quality colt that was selected for book one of the Keeneland sale, left the ring without a single bid being made on it. I haven’t seen that before during the select sessions. A short time earlier, when Hip 280, a Giant’s Causeway colt, left the ring, he sold for just $5,000. It’s an unforgiving market.

Through Hip 310 (the session ends at Hip 418), the average for Tuesday was $270,756 and the median was identical to Monday’s $200,000. There have been 32 RNAs, a buyback rate of 36%. The buybacks have averaged $153,563. Today’s average is down 31% from 2008’s comparable session. It’s improved, but it’s hard to find many smiling faces around here.

2:35 p.m. … That was a pleasant deja vu. John Magnier vs. Sheikh Mohammed, just like in the days of old. The two international Thoroughbred giants hooked up in the first battle royal of the sale, Hip 342, a Storm Cat colt out of the Indian Charlie mare Fleet Indian, consigned by Taylor Made Sales Agency on behalf of the Summer Wind Farm of Frank and Jane Lyons, brought a final bid of $2,050,000 from Sheikh Mohammed and agent Ferguson, who were standing out back in their usual spot. Magnier, who is usually just a few paces behind the sheikh’s entourage by the horse path near the back ring, had slipped inside the pavilion to do his bidding, according to sources. The final price more than doubled the sale’s previous high of $1 million. The colt is the first foal out of Fleet Indian, a winner of 13 of 19 starts and champion older mare in North America.

3:20 p.m. … How would this sale be going without Sheikh Mohammed? His agent, John Ferguson, has signed 15 tickets Tuesday for yearlings totaling $7,830,000, roughly one-third of the day’s gross receipts. That brings Sheikh Mohammed’s two-day total to 29 yearlings purchased in the name of Ferguson, plus an unspecified number that may have been bought through associates and other agents. The $2,050,000 sale-topping Storm Cat colt has helped increase the day’s average to $289,720 from 82 lots sold. The receipts so far total $23,757,000. There have been 42 RNAs from the first 124 through the ring, a percentage of 33%. The median is $222,500.

3:45 p.m. … With about 30 horses left to sell, here are the cumulative numbers for the first two days of the Keeneland September yearling sale: 198 sold for $50,961,000, an average price of $257,379 and median of $210,000. There have been 52 yearlings withdrawn and 123 listed as RNAs, a cumulative buyback rate of 38.3%. (For comparison with 2008’s select sessions, see today’s blog update at 12:10 p.m.)

It is almost certain the average for the two Keeneland select sessions will fall below the $328,434 average price of Fasig-Tipton’s 2009 Saratoga sale. That’s the first time since 1999 that Saratoga’s yearling sale average topped the select sessions at Keeneland September. Back in 1999, however, Keeneland still had a July select yearling sale where many of the top offerings were sold. That sale was suspended in 2003.

We’ll  report on the final numbers around 6 p.m.

6:15 p.m. … “It’s a reflection of the world…it speaks for itself,” Keeneland’s director of sales Geoffrey Russell said after the final hammer came down on the two select sessions of the 2009 Keeneland September yearling sale. The numbers on Tuesday’s second session improved across the board from Monday,  but the comparisons to previous years and the cold, hard facts left many breeders reeling.

The number sold over the two days, 222, was down 26% from last year’s 300 sold, Gross receipts of $58,756,000 reflected a 48.2% drop from 2008’s $113,357,000. The average of $264,667 was a decline of 30.0% from $377,857 last yeawr and the median price, $215,000, fell 28.3% from $300,000 in 2008.

There were 137 horses bought back by consignors from the 359 through the ring, an RNA rate of 38.2%, up substantially from the 30.1% buybacks in 2008.

Tuesday’s comparative figures with 2008 were 115 sold for $33,807,000, an average of $293,974 and median price of $250,000. Those numbers represent a 41% decline in gross receipts, a 25.1% drop in average and a $16.7% fall in median from 2008’s 146 sold for $57,310,000, an average of $392,534 and median of $300,000. Tuesday’s 62 buybacks were 35% of the 177 offered, up slightly from the 32.1% RNAs at the second session in 2008.

There were three seven-figure yearlings sold Tuesday (none Monday), topped by the $2,050,000 Storm Cat colt purchased by Sheikh Mohammed’s agent, John Ferguson, the leading buyer of the select sessions with 31 purchases totaling $13,460,000. It was the fewest million-dollar yearlings sold at the September sale since 1997, when two brought seven figures.

Ferguson told the Paulick Report that Sheikh Mohammed purchased additional horses through other agents, including Blandford Bloodstock, the sale’s fourth leading buyer (11 for $2,742,000) but that he was uncertain of the total number. Ferguson said he would attend at least a portion of Wednesday’s first non-select session before leaving Lexington.

 

 

Combining the two days of the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga select yearling sale in August with the Keeneland September select session, there were 382 yearlings sold in 2009, compared with 422 last year. The 2009 combined average of the two sales was $291,375, a decline of 18.8%. Gross receipts in 2009 were $111,305,500, a 26.5% drop from the combined FT Saratoga and Keeneland September select gross of $151,437,000 last year.In 2008, Keeneland’s market share of the combined gross receipts with FT Saratoga was 74.9%, with FT’s share at 25.1%. When the results of this year’s top two yearling sales were finalized, Keeneland’s market share fell to 52.8% with FT at 47.2%. For the first time since 1999, the FT Saratoga sale resulted in higher average prices than the select sessions at the Keeneland September sale. 

The Paulick Report will have further analysis of the select sessions on Wednesday morning.

Book two yearlings sell Wednesday and Thursday, beginning at 10 a.m. Friday is an off day, followed by 10 consecutive days of selling starting Saturday.

 Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

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