Posts Tagged ‘Ron the Greek’

This weekend the racing world will be focused on the Dubai World Cup to be held at the new Meydan Racecourse for the first time. The $26 million day of racing in the United Arab Emirates is highlighted by the Dubai World Cup, a $10 million race where the winner’s share is a cool $6 million. American-based dual Eclipse winner Gio Ponti is the 7-2 favorite. He will face 13 international runners, including two from his own homeland, Richard’s Kid and Furthest Land. Coverage of the races begins Saturday, at 9:30 a.m. ET on HRTV.

Stateside, the weekends graded stakes schedule begins on Friday with the G3 Fair Grounds Oaks. After having won the Tiffany Lass and Silverbulletday (G3) this year, Jody Slew has the chance to sweep the 3-year-old stakes series for fillies. She outfinished Quite Temper by only a nose in the Silverbulletday and those two meet up again in the 1/16-mile Oaks. The tepid morning line favorite is Todd Pletcher’s Ailalea.

There will be a trio of Derby preps this weekend; on Saturday, Turfway Park in Northern Kentucky has the Lane’s End, Fair Grounds has the Louisiana Derby, and on Sunday, the Sunland Derby takes place in New Mexico. All are G2 races to be run at 1 1/8 miles. The Lane’s End, the only one of the three that will be on a synthetic surface, Southern California invader Connemara should be the one to catch. Two races prior to the Lane’s End will be the G3 Bourbonette Oaks with probable favorite Helen Belen, who scored by almost 15 lengths in her last out, the Valdale.

A contentious field of 13 has been entered for the Louisiana Derby with Discreetly Mine the 7-2 favorite. Among his challengers are Ron the Greek and Drosselmeyer. Discreetly Mine and Drosselmeyer are based in South Florida, but both ran in the Risen Star Feb. 20 at the Fair Grounds oval in New Orleans, finishing first and fourth, respectively. The Louisiana Derby is the 10th out of 13 races on the card which also features the G2 New Orleans Handicap (race and the G2 Mervin H. Muniz Handicap (race 9).

The Sunland Derby, graded for the first time, has a field of nine going postward headed by Conveyance, a two-time graded stakes winner this year. Nacho Friend, coming off a third-place finish in the G3 Gotham at Aqueduct, appears to be his main rival here.

Gulfstream Park will host a pair of 1 ½-mile turf stakes this weekend—the G3 Pan American for males on Saturday, and the G3 Orchid on Sunday for females. The Pan Am has lured a field of 10 (with one main track only entry) that includes Winchester, a slight morning line favorite over Never On Sunday, and Brass Hat, a sentimental favorite, who is making his 2010 debut as a 9-year-old. In the Orchid we’ll see Lady Shakespeare, who seems to show up in the entries whenever a turf route stakes is carded, along with Cable and Mushka.

The saga of Ahmed Zayat’s Zayat Stables and the Fifth Third Bank that sued the stable took an interesting turn over the weekend when Eskendereya ran away and hid from nine rivals in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Just as Fifth Third was pushing for the authority to take over and manage the Zayat Stable assets, Eskendereya, one of those assets, exploded in value with his overpowering 8 1/2-length victory that vaulted him to the top of numerous rankings of Kentucky Derby contenders, including my own. At this stage of the dispute, it would be difficult to convince a bankruptcy court judge that a bank would do a better job managing a racing stable than the team that Zayat has assembled over the last several years, when he has ranked among the leading owners in North America, retired two top stallion prospects to the breeding shed (multiple Grade 1 winner Zensational and Kentucky Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile) and developed a leading candidate for the 2010 Kentucky Derby. The bank most recently dropped their demand for a trustee to be appointed to manage the assets.

So Zayat, despite filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, holds some pretty good cards in his hand right now, led by the ace of the stable, Eskendereya, whose value probably increased tenfold with that Fountain of Youth victory.

Under normal circumstances, offers from stallion farms would start flooding in on a horse like Eskendereya, considering how he dismantled a good field and the pedigree he carries (Giant’s Causeway out of a Seattle Slew mare). But if the horse is worth $5 million or more and Zayat decides to sell all or part of him, how much of a dent would that put on the reported $34 million he is said ot owe Fifth Third? Probably not enough to convince Zayat to sell, especially given his personal quest to win big races like the Kentucky Derby. Besides, if Eskendereya runs the table and wins the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown (and we’re not making that prediction), he’s probably worth tens of millions of dollars and closer to bailing Zayat out in one fell swoop.

On the other side of this rather expensive coin is the grim reality that what goes up also can come down. If Eskendereya is worth $5 million today after a Grade 2 victory, what would he be worth if he throws in a clunker next time out and fails to hit the board? Answer: a lot less than what he is worth today.

Zayat is a gambler, both at the betting windows and in the auction ring. He’s gambled tens of millions of dollars that he can increase the value of his bloodstock assets, and I would bet that he will not be willing to sell a cherished property like Eskendereya as long as there is more upside available. His track record in the horse business suggests he does not sell on the way up.

I think it goes without saying Fifth Third would like Zayat to monetize some assets, but he is currently holding the cards. 

Click here for Ray’s Under The Raydar segment

Following is my latest top 10 horses for the Paulick Derby Index:
 
1. Eskendereya. Leader of Todd’s Squad, perhaps the strongest group of horses multiple Eclipse Award-winning trainer Todd Pletcher has ever had in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby, where his futility is well documented. Pletcher will win more than one Derby before his career is over.

2. Lookin At Lucky. Still awaiting the 2009 2-year-old champion’s seasonal debut. Bob Baffert trained the son of Smart Strike cautiously last weekend when rain hitouthern California. If he has no prep on dirt prior to the Kentucky Derby, this one will be tough to gauge.

3. Rule. Pletcher has some time on the sidelines, thanks to the suspension he received as a result of a positive test at the 2008 Breeders’ Cup. He can use the down time to map out a road to the Derby for his various candidates, including this son of Roman Ruler, who has looked good beating up on relatively weak competition.

4. American Lion. Assuming Eoin Harty will keep Tiznow colt on synthetic surfaces until testing him at Churchill Downs. At this stage he looks to be part of a heavy speed brigade among the various contenders.

5. Dave in Dixie. Can’t wait to see this Dixie Union colt’s next start for trainer John Sadler. Finished with a tremendous burst in deep stretch in the Robert Lewis Stakes and figures to improve with racing.

6. Discreetly Mine. Pletcher-trained colt fits the profile of a Kentucky Derby winner in so many ways: a lot of racing experience at two, strong performances in graded stakes, and a pedigree (Mineshaft out of a Private Account mare) that makes you think distance is no problem.

7. Conveyance. Hard to knock an unbeaten horse, and this Indian Charlie colt has been highly regarded from the start; he sold for $240,000 as a yearling and probably brought 10 times more than that when he was purchased privately by Zabeel Racing earlier this year.

8. Dublin. Hopeful winner at Saratoga last summer returned to good form in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, chasing Conveyance to the wire while making up a lot of ground in the final eighth of a mile. That suggests the D. Wayne Lukas-trained son of Afleet Alex will be that much tougher when the distances stretch out.

9. Buddy’s Saint. Son of Saint Liam went from big time to small time in no time with his ninth-place finish in Fountain of Youth. But considering all the trouble the Nashua and Remsen Stakes winner had around the first turn when he was bounced around after rushing up along the rail into a hole that didn’t exist, it’s easy to see how the colt may have gotten discouraged. It’s the kind of race you just draw a line through and hope it wasn’t a reflection of his true ability.

10. Caracortado. Just like with Conveyance, it’s tough to knock perfection. He’s had relatively soft competition until last out in the Robert Lewis, when son of Cat Dream got the perfect trip behind dueling leaders

Kentucky Derby preps are in full swing across the country with more than a few contenders from the 2007 foal crop hoping to emerge as stars. Gulfstream Park will present two graded stakes for 3-year-olds, the Hutcheson, at seven furlongs, and the 1 1/8-mile Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth, both Grade 2. In the Hutcheson, Rick Dutrow has two entries, Radiohead and D’Funnybone, the likely favorite. Rick’s brother, Tony Dutrow, also has an entry in the Hutcheson, A Little Warm. Nick Zito’s Jackson Bend will face nine rivals in the Fountain of Youth. The diminutive son of Hear No Evil had a five-race win streak broken in his last out when he ran second to Winslow Homer in the Holy Bull. His biggest challenger appears to be Remsen winner Buddy’s Saint.

Gulfstream has also carded a pair of complementary G3 grass races for older horses on Saturday—for the ladies it’s the Honey Fox and the guys run in the Canadian Turf. An overflow field has entered the Honey Fox, including Bluegrass Princess, Backseat Rhythm, and Quiet Harbor, who brings with her a string of five consecutive wins. Courageous Cat makes his 2010 debut in the Canadian Turf; he finished his 2009 campaign with a sensational runner-up effort to Eclipse Award winner Goldikova in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

After inclement weather at Oaklawn Park forced the cancellation of last Monday’s G3 Southwest Derby, it was rescheduled for Saturday. Conveyance, Cardiff Giant and Domonation, the first three finishers in the San Rafael Stakes, shipped in from California and all remained on the grounds and re-entered one mile test.

At the Fair Grounds, the spotlight will be on 3-year-olds in the G3 Silverbulletday, for fillies, and the G2 Risen Star, for colts and geldings. Both races are 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. In the Silverbulletday, Todd Pletcher’s Devil May Care is the slight morning-line favorite over the Dale Romans-trained Quiet Temper. A full field of 12 goes to the gate in the Risen Star; the top choices here are Bill Mott’s Drosselmeyer, and from the Tom Amoss barn, Ron the Greek.

Also, at Fair Grounds on Saturday, two other G3 stakes will be run for older horses—the Mineshaft, at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, and the Fair Grounds Handicap, 1 1/8 miles on turf. The one-two finishers in the Jan. 23 Louisiana Handicap, Friesan Fire and General Quarters, will face off again in the Mineshaft, while the Fair Grounds Handicap has attracted the likes of Acting Zippy, Transduction Gold and the now 10-year-old Silverfoot. Giant Oak is entered as well, but will run only if the race is transferred to dirt.

The other graded Derby prep on Saturday is the G3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields in Northern California. Ranger Heartley and Connemara are the likely favorites among eight entered in the 1 1/8-mile dirt contest; they ran first and second, respectively, in the Jan. 16 California Derby.

Saturday’s Santa Anita card features the G2 San Carlos Handicap, a seven furlong dirt race for 4-year-olds and up. Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Dancing In Silks hopes to rebound from his third-place finish in the Palos Verdes and earn a trip to the Golden Shaheen in Dubai in late March. His day could be spoiled by Ventana, runner-up in the Palos Verdes, or the speed demon, Bob Black Jack, off since winning the 2008 Malibu.

On Sunday, the only graded stakes action takes place at Santa Anita with the running of the G2 San Luis Obispo Handicap for older horses on the turf at the marathon distance of  1 ½ miles. Obrigado, now a 7-year-old, won this race in 2007 and makes his seasonal debut here. The Neil Drysdale trainee will face eight rivals, including his stablemate Bourbon Bay.

 Back when magazines mattered, there used to be this thing called the “Sports Illustrated cover jinx.” I’m starting to worry that it might be replaced by the Ray Paulick “Paulick Derby Index jinx.”
 
When we launched the 2010 edition of the Derby Index two weeks ago, my top choice three months out from the Kentucky Derby was Rick Porter’s Winslow Homer, a son of Unbridled’s Song who was coming off a victory in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. I liked the way he made three separate moves in that race and yet still had enough to hold off the favored Jackson Bend, a sign of versatility and maturity. Days later, however, he was off the trail with an injury and off my list.

Last week, Tiz Chrome occupied my top spot, not so much for what he had accomplished in his brief career but for what I thought he would do in last Saturday’s Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. But the son of Tiznow trained by Bob Baffert showed little fight in the final quarter mile of his first race around two turns after jumping out to an early lead.

So I look ahead to this weekend’s Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes with great apprehension as I move Buddy’s Saint to the top of my Derby Index list, and hope he can break the jinx. Following is my newly minted Top 10 in the wake of Caracortado’s upset win in the Lewis and Rule’s dominating performance in the Sam Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.

1-Buddy’s Saint. Comes off a good, solid six-furlong drill on Sunday for trainer Bruce Levine in preparation for Saturday’s Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. His pedigree suggests stamina, and continued success by this Saint Liam colt would be a fitting tribute to the late Allen Paulson, who produced the dam of Buddy’s Saint, the Blushing John mare Tuzia, runner-up in the 10-furlong Personal Ensign Stakes. Paulson never won the Kentucky Derby—not that he didn’t want to, but his breeding program was based more on producing horses with stamina, and that characteristic often comes at the expense of precocity.

2-Lookin At Lucky. The reigning champion (by Smart Strike) is working solidly in anticipation of his 3-year-old debut, expected to be March 13 in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. Trainer Bob Baffert didn’t have the best of weekends when Tiz Chrome was beaten in the Robert Lewis Stakes and Oaklawn Park had to postpone the Southwest Stakes Monday—for which Conveyance had been shipped from California and entered to run—because of bad weather.

3-Rule. The quality of Triple Crown contenders prepping at Tampa Bay Downs has been on the upswing in recent years, so Rule’s impressive victory in Saturday’s Sam Davis is more meaningful in my eyes than it would have been just a few years ago. The son of Roman Ruler will get a much stiffer test next out—trainer Todd Pletcher said he wants to jump him into Grade 1 competition—but the encouraging thing about this most recent win was the way Rule relaxed on the lead.

4-American Lion. Sometimes a defeat is better than it looked, and that’s how I’m going to categorize American Lion’s third-place showing in Saturday’s Robert Lewis Stakes, his first route race around two turns. He bobbled coming out of the gate, used up some energy to challenge for the lead after that, battled favorite Tiz Chrome into submission in midstretch, but was unable to hold off Caracortado and the fast-finishing Dave in Dixie. The son of Tiznow got some experience in that race and will be a much better horse next time around for trainer Eoin Harty.

5- Dave In Dixie. If I had a dark horse candidate right now it would be this John Sadler-trained son of Dixie Union who came flying in the final furlong to finish second to Caracortado in the Robert Lewis Stakes. He closed a ton of ground in his previous start, the Norfolk, though not hitting the board that day, and will benefit from the tightener in the Lewis. Not every strong closer gets better with distance and he could be a sucker horse, but I’d give this colt another race or two to see if he figures out what this game is all about.

6-Super Saver. Member of the WinStar Farm Triple Crown juggernaut who is approaching his 2010 debut for Todd Pletcher. If nothing else, this Maria’s Mon colt demonstrated his affection for the Churchill racing strip when he won the Kentucky Jockey Stakes there last fall.

7-Jackson Bend. I’m just not convinced this son of the Carson City stallion Hear No Evil has the stamina required to win the Kentucky Derby over 10 furlongs. Has a lot of ability and is in the hands of a trainer, Nick Zito, who knows how to bring horses up to a big race.

8-Conveyance.  Presumably will remain at Oaklawn Park for the rescheduled running of the Southwest Stakes, which was cancelled on Monday because of bad weather and will be run this Saturday.

9-Caracortado. We went a long time between geldings winning the Kentucky Derby (Clyde Van Dusen in 1929 to Funny Cide in 2003), but now that there have been two in the last seven (Mine That Bird in 2009), would it be that unusual for a third? California-bred son of Cat Dreams has done nothing wrong in winning all five starts, beginning with a maiden claimer and most recently with his Robert Lewis Stakes victory. Trainer Mike Machowsky (also the breeder) is more than capable, but my caveat for this Cinderalla story is that Caracortado got an absolutely perfect trip under jockey Paul Atkinson, sitting just off the pace of dueling leaders.

10-Tiz Chrome. From first to 10th in a week, this son of Tiznow disappointed in his first try around two turns, but he didn’t get an easy lead, and it’s hard to win wire to wire on Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride track under those circumstances. I’m for second chances.

As far as three-year-old races are concerned, last weekend proved to be a bit of a…washout (pardon the pun). Santa Anita postponed their Saturday card where PDI top ten contenders American Lion and Tiz Chrome were scheduled to go against each other in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Additionally, the Las Virgenes was to feature PDI number 12 Blind Luck, who could be this year’s superfilly  version of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. Fortunately for race fans, these races have been rescheduled for this Saturday the 13th.

On a down note, last week also brought the first deletion from the Derby Trail as Winslow Homer was forced to the sidelines and will miss the Kentucky Derby due to an injury that will take two months to recover from according to his connections.

This week, we’d like to thank James Scully of Brisnet for joining the PDI and are happy to give the racing public a voice by introducing a vote via our Daily Paulick Poll.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

1 - Bob Baffert and I have more in common than a head of grey (or white) hair. Neither one of us had the patience to sit through the old TV show “Short Attention Span Theater,” and we both have a tendency to get distracted by shiny metal objects.

Actually, in Baffert’s case, his distractions come from shiny, fast-moving objects like 2009 champion juvenile Lookin At Lucky, who caught his eye at Keeneland’s sale of 2-year-olds in training, or Tiz Chrome (shiny metal object!), impressive winner of a maiden race at Churchill Downs last fall for Whispering Oaks Farm.

Baffert acquired the latter colt, a son of Tiznow, following that Nov. 1 maiden win, and he now races for the partnership of the Lanni Family Trust, Mercedes Stable and Bernie Schiappa. (In truth, it was actually Schiappa, a car dealer who knows a lot about shiny metal objects, that first saw Tiz Chrome.) Tiz Chrome is one-for-one for his new owners, having scored impressively in a minor stakes at Hollywood Park Dec. 19. He hasn’t gone beyond 6 1/2 furlongs yet, so distance is a question, but this is a flashy colt with a lot of ability. We’ll obviously know more after his next start in this weekend’s Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita, rescheduled after last weekend’s washout.

2 - There’s a lot to like about Buddy’s Saint, a son of Saint Liam who took the late-season Nashua and Remsen Stakes in New York before heading down to Florida to winter. I’ve always preferred late-maturing 2-year-olds as Derby prospects to those who zoom to the head of their class earlier in the season and have little improvement left in them. We’ll find out in the upcoming Fountain of Youth whether the Bruce Levine-trained colt is continuing on the upswing.

3 - Lookin At Lucky is near-perfect after six starts, his lone defeat coming in a heartbreak loss in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Is this son of Smart Strike one of those early-maturing colts that the rest of his foal crop is catching up to? Recent history is not on his side.

4 - Super Saver is a colt with a lot of talent from the deep Todd Pletcher barn (we won’t get into Pletcher’s Derby numbers yet). Son of Maria’s Mon rated on the lead while winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, but it’s tough going wire to wire in the Derby.

5 - Jackson Bend finished a hard-trying second to now-sidelined Winslow Homer in the Holy Bull Stakes in his first start after being transferred to the barn of Hall of Famer Nick Zito, who does know a thing or two about winning the Kentucky Derby. Son of Hear No Evil (by Carson City) has a speed pedigree on top that should have some stamina influence from Cox’s Ridge on bottom side of his pedigree.

6 - I’m not going to second-guess trainer Todd Pletcher’s decision to send Rule down to Louisiana’s Delta Downs, where the son of Roman Ruler won the Jean Lafitte Stakes and Delta Jackpot, the latter Grade 3 race giving him more than enough money to qualify for the Derby field. Mine That Bird came out of Sunland Park to win last year’s Kentucky Derby, so maybe that will be the start of a trend of horses running for slots-rich purses en route to Churchill Downs.

7 - Indian Charlie colt Conveyance gives Hall of Famer Baffert three horses on my top 10 early-season Derby list. He’s opting to send this one to Oaklawn Park for Monday’s Southwest Stakes, following a hard-fought victory in the San Rafael at Santa Anita. Perhaps he’ll move up on the synthetic to dirt switch.

8 - American Lion is a son of Tiznow that gives WinStar Farm a strong early hand in the Triple Crown picture. Well-traveled colt is in the hands of Eoin Harty, who knows how to bring a horse up to a big race. Like Tiz Chrome, he’s only sprinted so far in his brief career, but with that pedigree (out of a Storm Cat mare) you’d have to think he’ll enjoy added distance.

9 - Blind Luck’s victory in the Hollywood Starlet to me was the most visually impressive win by any 2-year-old of either sex in 2009. Hard to believe cleverly named daughter of Pollard’s Vision started out her career in a $40,000 maiden claimer. Doubt trainer Jerry Hollendorfer will send her out against colts, but she does have an explosive turn of foot.

10 - Early in the winter of 2006 I considered Barbaro nothing more than an outstanding turf horse, so I’m not going to fall for that trap again with his full brother Lentenor, even though it took the son of Dynaformer three tries to break his maiden. Let’s see what he can do against winners.

It’s that time of year again. Turf writers, handicappers and bloggers get an extra early start on predicting who will be in the final field of 20 on that first Saturday in May. Is it premature? No doubt. Is the field set in any way? Not on your life. But part of the fun of any sport is to attempt to look into a crystal ball and predict the future.

Which brings us to the second annual Paulick Derby Index this year brought to you by the Simon family’s Vinery LTD. We would very much like to thank our sponsor for making this possible. Additionally, the impressive band of PDI voters, some old faces and some new, are what really make this AP Poll for the Derby Trail work. A special thank you from the Paulick Report to all 25 voters that are not currently on our staff!

Next week, look forward to a more in-depth analysis by Ray Paulick of his top ten and the opportunity for fans to vote on their favorites, thus adding a 28th vote to next week’s poll. We’ll be offering that opportunity Sunday night after the weekend’s races have been run in our daily poll located at www.paulickreport.com.

The list of contenders is wide open this week and should remain so for some time. Are you inclined to go with the early favorite in Lookin at Lucky or hoping for a repeat of last year and searching for the next Mine That Bird? Where did our poll go right? How would you have voted differently? Read through the poll and then let us know where you stand.