Posts Tagged ‘robert frankel’

EQUIBASE ANNOUNCES FINAL NORTH AMERICAN EARNINGS LEADERS FOR 2009

Friday, January 1st, 2010

Press Release

For the first time, female Thoroughbreds occupy the top two spots on the list of leading North American earners in 2009, according to final statistics released today by Equibase Company LLC, the Thoroughbred industry’s official database for racing information.
 
Zenyatta earned $3,330,000 in 2009 to become the fourth filly or mare, and the first since Dance Smartly in 1991, to top the leading earners list. Runner-up Rachel Alexandra earned $2,746,914.
 
In the other categories, Steven Asmussen, Garrett Gomez and Michael Gill head the individual lists of the leading trainers, jockeys and owners, respectively, by North American earnings in 2009.
 
The year-end compilations are distributed annually by Equibase and include results from Thoroughbred racing in North America only. The top 100 North American leaders in each category are accessible at equibase.com.
 
Asmussen, who previously topped the trainers’ list in 2003 and 2008, won a single-season record 650 races from 2,944 starts for North American earnings of $21,876,405 in 2009. Runner-up was Todd Pletcher, whose horses won 238 races from 1,108 starts for earnings of $15,454,429 in 2009.
 
Completing the list of top 10 trainers by North American earnings in 2009 were Bob Baffert, $9,574,394 (117 wins/504 starts); William Mott, $7,957,370 (116/689); Jerry Hollendorfer, $7,309,169 (273/1,210); Kiaran McLaughlin, $6,983,433 (113/555); Scott Lake, $6,928,884 (307/1,462); Christophe Clement, $6,849,013 (91/448); Robert Frankel, $6,586,098 (42/293); and John Sadler, $5,999,956 (132/637).
 
Garrett Gomez, with earnings of $18,571,171, topped the North American leading jockeys’ list for the fourth consecutive year in 2009. He rode the winners of 210 races from 967 mounts. Julien Leparoux finished second, with 247 wins from 1,284 mounts and earnings of $18,560,565.
 
Rounding out the list of top 10 jockeys by North American earnings in 2009 were Ramon Dominguez, $18,348,422 (391 wins/1,651 mounts); Kent Desormeaux, $13,262,760 (177/936); Joel Rosario, $13,073,777 (284/1,476); John Velazquez, $13,069,881 (204/1,160); Rafael Bejarano, $12,403,993 (240/1,129); Rajiv Maragh, $11,736,729 (236/1,479); Robby Albarado, $11,504,625 (204/1,148); and Alan Garcia, $11,280,481 (183/1,049).
 
Michael Gill won 370 races from 2,247 starts and earned $6,669,950 in North America in 2009 to lead all owners. Runner-up was Juddmonte Farms Inc., which won 27 races from 116 starts for earnings of $6,525,818. 
 
Completing the list of top 10 owners by North American earnings in 2009 were Zayat Stables LLC, $6,323,286 (113 wins/573 starts); Darley Stable, $4,977,513 (78/343); Heiligbrodt Racing Stable, $4,880,906 (151/819); Augustin Stable, $4,825,552 (57/244); Mr. and Mrs. Jerome S. Moss, $4,172,533 (31/128); Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey, $4,108,857 (140/521); Melnyk Racing Stables Inc., $3,991,368 (81/387); and Maggi Moss, $3,799,637 (193/716).
 
In addition to the official North American racing leaders’ lists available at equibase.com, Equibase also provides a second set of leaders’ lists that includes the results of the Dubai World Cup card from March 28, 2009, at Nad Al Sheba Racecourse. Including these international earnings, Well Armed was the leading Thoroughbred with earnings of $3,649,000 and WinStar Farm LLC was the leading owner with earnings of $7,145,236. Steven Asmussen remained the leading trainer with earnings of $21,876,405 and Garrett Gomez the leading jockey with earnings of $18,571,171.
 
Equibase Company is a partnership between The Jockey Club and the Thoroughbred Racing Associations of North America and serves as the Thoroughbred industry’s official database for racing information. In addition to year-end rankings of the top trainers, jockeys, owners and horses, the company’s website, equibase.com, features daily rankings of the top 100 by category for the current year as well as an ever-increasing menu of racing information and handicapping products for handicappers of every skill level.

A WINNER…BUT NOT AT ALL COSTS

Tuesday, November 17th, 2009

By Ray Paulick
I had always been intimidated by trainer Bobby Frankel until I had the opportunity to spend some time with him in Tokyo in 2001 when he sent Amerman Racing Stable’s Lido Palace there for the second running of the Japan Cup Dirt.
 
With just that one horse to care for in Japan, he was more a tourist than a horseman that week. Unmarried at the time, he brought a former assistant trainer, Fred Cogan, as his guest (the Japan Racing Association allows each trainer to bring a spouse or guest at the JRA’s expense), and the three of us wound up palling around for much of the week, talking more about life than horses.

The lobby of the Keio Plaza Hotel was our gathering place, where it seemed there always was a wedding going on or one about to happen. Frankel was fascinated by the fact so many Japanese couples had Western-style weddings, and on the drive to the track one morning he opened a discussion about religion, wondering how a Buddhist society yielded so many weddings that looked like Christian ceremonies in America.

“What religion are you?” I asked, knowing that he was born Jewish.

“I’m one of those…what do you call them…they don’t really believe in anything.”

“Atheist?” Cogan asked.

“No, no,” he said. “I’m just not really sure….you know…aga…aga-something.”
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“Agnostic?” I said.

“Yeah, that’s it,” he said. “Aga-nostic. I really don’t know what to believe. How can anyone really know, you know what I mean?”

The discussion continued about religion and prayer, and Frankel volunteered that there was only one time in his career that he asked God for some help in winning a horse race, when Keeper Hill ran in the 1999 Spinster Stakes at Keeneland. The filly was owned by John and Alice Chandler of Mill Ridge Farm and trainer Shug McGaughey. “I made a deal with God,” he said, “that if Keeper Hill won that race I would donate all of my winnings to charity. He kept his end of the bargain and so did I.”

I didn’t ask Frankel why he chose that particular horse and race to pray to a God he wasn’t sure existed, but I had my suspicions. Shortly after Keeper Hill had won, there were rumors that the filly was given a milkshake before the race (a loading of bicarbonates), something that might not have gone over very well with Alice Chandler, who had been leading the fight to tighten Kentucky’s then-lax medication rules.

“Keeper Hill…wasn’t there some story about her getting a milkshake before the Spinster?” I asked Frankel. He didn’t say yes or no, but his answer told me all I needed to know. “It wasn’t illegal,” he said, stretching that last word out in a way that only a native New Yorker could.

He was right. Milkshakes weren’t prohibited by the Kentucky Racing Commission until 2001 (they were banned in every other state, except Louisiana), and there were many people, including a number of veterinarians, who felt they were good for horses, since it was a natural substance that prevented lactic acid buildup and kept a horse from tiring, which is when many injuries occur. Frankel, if he did have a milkshake administered to Keeper Hill, didn’t break any rules.

Frankel admitted during the course of another conversation that he would use every legal edge available to win a race, as long as it didn’t do any harm to the horse. While in Japan that year, he checked with JRA officials to see what type of racing plates could be used for Lido Palace. “If I lost by that much,” he said, holding his thumb and index finger an inch apart, “and didn’t take advantage of whatever was legal, I wouldn’t be able to sleep.”

Lido Palace ran a clunker in Japan, finishing far behind Kurofune in a mystifying performance. I don’t think Frankel slept very well that night, and it wasn’t because of jet lag. Over breakfast the next morning, he said he thinks he messed up when he tightened the girth on Lido Palace, cinching it so tight the horse might have had trouble breathing properly.

Frankel was as competitive as anyone in the sport, celebrating the wins in style but also suffering through the losses. He was always looking for an edge, but drew the line if the result could be harmful to his horses. During his record-setting year in 2003 when he won 25 Grade 1 races and set a new earnings mark for trainers, rumors ran rampant that he was “juicing” his horses with a blood-doping agent called Epogen.

I called him, told him about the rumors I’d been hearing, and asked if it was true. “How stupid do you think I am?” he said. “I’ve got the best training job in this business with Juddmonte. You think I would do something to risk that?

“That shit kills horses,” he said. “I don’t use any of that stuff–anabolic steroids–anything that’s harmful to a horse.”

The loss of Frankel leaves a big void in our sport. He was as colorful as anyone I’ve ever known. His record of accomplishment speaks for itself and brought him fame around the world, gaining him entry into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame.

But his love for the horses he trained will punch Frankel’s ticket to heaven—if there is such a place. After all, who really knows?

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

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HAVEN NO HEAVEN

Thursday, February 12th, 2009

By Ray Paulick
Desert Party won Thursday night’s UAE 2000 Guineas at Nad Al Sheba racecourse in Dubai, rallying from just off the pace under Lanfranco Dettori to score an "under wraps"  victory over Regal Ransom and pacesetter Redding Colliery. Vineyard Haven, winner of the Hopeful and Champagne Stakes last year and runner-up to Midshipman in Eclipse Award voting, finished a distant fourth in his first start in Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin silks. The son of Lido Palace had previously been owned by a partnership that included trainer Robert Frankel and Los Angeles Dodgers manager Joe Torre before a reported $12-million offer from the ruler of Dubai.

The winner was making his second start in Dubai for trainer Saeed bin Suroor, coming off a half-length win Jan. 22 in the Ford Flex Trophy, a prep for the Grade 3 UAE 2000 Guineas. A 3-year-old son of Street Cry out of Sage Cat, by Tabasco Cat, Desert Party began his career in the United States for trainer Eoin Harty,  breaking his maiden on Polytrack at Arlington Park in June, then beating three horses in the Grade 2 Sanford on a muddy Saratoga dirt track July 24. Desert Party finished a well beaten sixth behind Vineyard Haven in Saratoga’s Hopeful. Bred in Kentucky by David Smith and Steven Sinatra, Desert Party was a $2.1 million purchase at Fasig-Tipton’s February sale of 2-year-olds in training at Calder after Paul Pompa had purchased him for $425,000 at the 2007 Keeneland September yearling sale.

Runner-up Regal Ransom, a $675,000 purchase at the same Calder 2-year-old sale, broke his maiden at Saratoga in August but finished eighth in the Grade 1 Norfolk in his only other U.S. start. He also ran second to Desert Party in the Ford Flex, his first race in Dubai.

Vineyard Haven, purchased privately after  winning the Champagne Stakes by  5 3/4 lengths, appeared a bit rank in the early going while racing to the outside and just off the early lead of Redding Colliery. He failed to respond when asked by jockey T.E. Durcan and was never a threat down the stretch of the one-turn, one-mile contest.

VIDEO

 

WORLD’S BEST HORSES OF 2008

Tuesday, January 13th, 2009

By Ray Paulick
There are a number of ways to look at the just-released World Thoroughbred Rankings, which were compiled by racing officials/handicappers from around the globe and published by the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities. Which country had the highest representation? What about the stallions that produced the highest number of world-class runers and the trainers who developed them?

The rankings of horses from around the world are updated throughout the year, and can be viewed at the Web site of the IFHA, which maintains historical rankings as well. Click here to see the complete list of 2008 World Thoroughbred Rankings.

Leading Sires of Horses 
On World Thoroughbred Rankings
Sire Ranked
Horses
Sire’s Sire Farm Stands Located
Galileo 8 Sadler’s Wells Coolmore Ireland
Montjeu 8 Sadler’s Wells Coolmore Ireland
Sadler’s Wells 8 Northern Dancer Pensioned Ireland
Danehill 7 Danzig Deceased Ire/Aus
Kingmambo 6 Mr. Prospector Lane’s End Kentucky
Chester House 5 Mr. Prospector Deceased Kentucky
Fuji Kiseki 5 Sunday Silence Shadai Japan
Encosta de Lago 4 Fairy King Coolmore Australia
Flying Spur 4 Danehill Arrowfield Australia
Rock of Gibraltar 4 Danehill Coolmore Ireland
Tiznow 4 Cee’s Tizzy WinStar Kentucky
Agnes Tachiyon 3 Sunday Silence Shadai Japan
Cape Cross 3 Green Desert Kildangan Stud Ireland
Giant’s Causeway 3 Storm Cat Coolmore/Ashford Kentucky
Grass Wonder 3 Silver Hawk Breeders’ Stallion Station Japan
Jet Master 3 Jet Lightning Klipdrif Stud South Africa
O’Reilly 3 Last Tycoon Waikato Stud New Zealand
Rahy 3 Blushing Groom Three Chimneys Kentucky
Street Cry 3 Machiavellian Darley Kentucky
Zamindar 3 Gone West Banstead Manor Great Britain

From a nationalistic point of view, American interests dominated the standings by placing 84 U.S.-trained horses on the list of Northern and Southern Hemisphere runners, aged 3 and up, who were weighted at 115 pounds or higher. That list is headed, of course, by the 2007 Horse of the Year, Curlin, who was weighted at 130 pounds, equal to the weight assigned the Irish-trained 3-year-old, New Approach. The number of U.S.-trained horses is nearly twice as many as the 43 from Great Britain making the list, but it only stands to reason since there are far more races and graded stakes in the United States than in any other country. Following Great Britain was Australia ,with 36; Japan, 28; France, 27; Ireland, 21; Hong Kong, 13; Germany, 11; United Arab Emirates, 10; South Africa, 6; New Zealand, 3;  Spain, 3; Canada, 2; Brazil, 1; Hungary, 1; Italy, 1; and Turkey, 1.

Not surprisingly, Aidan O’Brien, the young master of Ballydoyle in Ireland, trains the most runners on the list with 14. O’Brien is private trainer for Coolmore’s John Magnier and his associates. Sir Michael Stoute and Saeed bin Suroor were next, with nine each, followed by Robert Frankel, 8, Andre Fabre, 7, and Mike de Kock, with 6.

From a sire standpoint, Coolmore was a dominating force, as the accompanying table shows, led by their trio of the pensioned legend, Sadler’s Wells, along with young stars Galileo and Montjeu, both of whom were sired by Sadler’s Wells. Each of the three was represented by eight horses on the World Rankings. Following that top trio is another stallion associated with Coolmore, Danehill, who shuttled between Australia and Ireland. He has seven horses ranked at 115 pounds or higher for 2008, and also is the sire of two of the others on this list, Flying Spur and Rock of Gibraltar.

The highest American-based sire on the list is the Lane’s End stallion Kingmambo, who is represented by six runners on the World Rankings. Next is Chester House, a son of Mr. Prospector who stood at Juddmonte Farm before his unfortunate and premature death at age 8 in 2003. He was produced by the preeminent broodmare, Toussaud, who died most recently.

The 2008 World Thoroughbred Rankings were compiled by the World Rankings Supervisory Committee (a panel of handicappers/racing secretaries affiliated to the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities) in Hong Kong in December 2008. The committee comprised :

Nigel Gray (co-chairman)
Hong Kong

Garry O’Gorman (co-chairman)
Ireland

Greg Carpenter
Australia

Gerald Sauque
France

Dominic Gardiner-Hill
Great Britain

Phillip Smith
Great Britain

Harald Siemen
Germany

Marco Rinaldi
Italy

Kazuhito Matano, Dr
Japan

Takahiro Uno
Japan

Dean Nowell
New Zealand

Mike Wanklin
Singapore

Roger Smith
South Africa

Melvin Day
UAE

Tom Robbins
USA

with the following also present as observers :

David Hunter
Australia

Steven Lym
Canada

Bahadir Gur
Turkey

Taylan Karaer
Turkey
* * * * * *

For further details on the World Thoroughbred Rankings (WTR), please contact :

Nigel Gray, co-chairman World Rankings Supervisory Committee
Head of Handicapping and Race Planning, Hong Kong Jockey Club
Telephone +852 2966 8337
Email nigel.c.gray@hkjc.org.hk

Garry O’Gorman, co-chairman World Rankings Supervisory Committee
Senior Flat Handicapper, Irish Turf Club
Telephone +353 5997 26596
Email gaogorman@eircom.net

Tom Robbins, chairman North American Ratings Committee
Vice President (Racing), Del Mar Thoroughbred Club
Telephone +1 858 792 4230
Email tomr@dmtc.com

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

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PAULICK’S SATURDAY PICKS: A BIG DAY FOR THE EUROS

Friday, October 24th, 2008
By Ray Paulick

Top to bottom, this may not be the most talented group of Breeders’ Cup horses that’s ever been assembled, but it’s the biggest handicapping challenge I can ever recall, especially considering new races like the Marathon, Turf Sprint, Dirt Mile and Juvenile Turf.

As mentioned yesterday, the Breeders’ Cup Web site has loads of good information, including race schedules and post times, wagering menu, free Equibase past performances, a useful wagering calculator, a list of simulcast locations and advice for beginners. You can bet the Breeders’ Cup races through any of the approved account wagering companies.

My handicapping philosophy is to beat the favorite whenever possible, since the average percentage of winning favorites is around 33%. You might discern from the following selections that I think the Europeans are going to have a big day on Saturday. The factors leading me to believe that will be true are 1) the synthetic surface that some Europeans train on; 2) the tighter medication rules that specifically ban anabolic steroids for the first time; 3) the quality of European horses being sent to this year’s event.

Here’s my advance prognostication on the day’s nine championship races. Good luck and safe racing to all.

Special note: please be sure to check back in to the Paulick Report, beginning around 3 p.m.  Eastern, for my live blog of Filly Friday. I’ll also be live blogging Saturday’s nine races, beginning at 1 p.m. Eastern.

Marathon
This looks like a two-horse race between European runner Sixties Icon and Zappa (whose namesake, the late rocker Frank Zappa, was the founder of the Mothers of Invention and was a real-life sixties icon).  That works for me, but it’s an all chalk exacta. I give the edge to Sixties Icon, in part because of jockey Frankie Dettori’s experience edge at mile and a half races. Zappa is sharp and may try to steal the race under Garrett Gomez. Muhannak has plenty of synthetic track experience in Europe and likes the distance. Cedar Mountain  will be closing late.

Selections: 1-Sixties Icon 2-Zappa 3-Muhannak 4- Cedar Mountain

Turf Sprint
One of the great things about the Breeders’ Cup is finding a horse you absolutely love and then discovering that it’s a longshot. That’s the case with Only Answer, a French-based filly in the care of the legendary horseman Andre Fabre, who is in top echelon of Breeders’ Cup trainers. I think she has an excellent chance to beat the boys in this spot, and Santa Anita’s ace morning line maker Jeff Tufts has her pegged at 20-1 on the morning line. Jockey Olivier Peslier, in my opinion, is as good a big-race rider as there is in the world, and he knows this filly well. The downhill turf course is a tricky one for horse and rider, with the run across the main track causing difficulty for some. It’s one of the best “horses for the course” plays in racing, which makes local runners California Flag and Get Funky formidable challengers in here. Fleeting Spirit has a lot of class, as does Diabolical, either of whom are good enough on their best days to win. I’m going for the price play.

Selections: 1-Only Answer 2-Fleeting Spirit 3-Get Funky 4-Diabolical

Dirt Mile
The status of Mast Track is in doubt as I write this, and I would be very surprised if trainer and owner Robert Frankel runs him on Saturday. If he is scratched, that’s going to make things a lot easier for Well Armed, a Tiznow gelding who seems to have found a perfect spot here, though I’d prefer  him to have drawn more of an inside post position. The Eoin Harty runner can go to the lead or rate, depending on the circumstances, and the mile distance suits him perfectly. Surf Cat should be more effective at this distance, too, after running dull races in his last two starts. Bruce Headley has tightened the veteran up with some quick works. No one seems to have more confidence in his horse than Wayne Catalano, and there’s a lot to like about Lewis Michael, who grabs the advantageous rail post. Pyro’s a tough one to assess in here. His only synthetic track try at Keeneland was a disaster, but all synthetic tracks aren’t the same.

Selections: 1-Well Armed 2-Surf Cat 3-Lewis Michael 4-Pyro

Turf Mile
Irish-bred filly Goldikova has made few mistakes in her eight-race career for French trainer Freddie Head, who has enough confidence to run her against colts here at her best distance. She’s drawn perfectly in the four post and has big-race rider Olivier Peslier in the saddle. It’s not the strongest Mile field we’ve seen. Shakis is a game old-timer who always finishes with a rush. If Alan Garcia can avoid traffic problems from the rail, he won’t be far away at the finish. Kip Deville ran a puzzler last time out in Canada on a yielding track for Rick Dutrow. I’d throw that race out as he goes for a defense of his crown. U S Ranger doesn’t win very many but usually gets up for a share of the money and has been facing tough company all year. Whatsthescript got an impossible post position on the outside.

Selections: 1-Goldikova 2-Shakis 3-Kip Deville 4-U S Ranger

Juvenile
Post positions really come into play here, with the two horses I like the most, Bushranger and Midshipman, drawn way outside, a distinct disadvantage in the relatively short run to the first turn. Munnings, who has chased juvenile division leader Vineyard Haven (not entered in the Breeders’ Cup by trainer Robert Frankel) in his last two starts, draws the much friendlier rail post for his first try around two turns. That’s enough to give him the edge in this spot for trainer Todd Pletcher, especially in a race without much early speed. The son of Speightstown should get the best trip under John Velazquez. Bushranger  may be the best horse and he’ll have to be overcome his 11 post. Street Hero has been steady since breaking his maiden in June and remains in top form for Myung Kwon Cho.

Selections: 1-Munnings 2-Bushranger 3-Midshipman 4-Street Hero

Juvenile Turf
Westphalia
looks to me like the obvious choice here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is bet down to near favoritism from his 5-1 morning line. He’s in top form and has had a bit of a rest since his last win at Doncaster in mid-September. Coronet of a Baron obviously has is precocious and talented, and the shift from synthetic to turf by trainer Eoin Harty is an interesting move. Darley already has Midshipman going in the Juvenile and this gives them a good chance to sweep the two races. Of course, arch-rival Coolmore has Bushranger in the Juvenile and Westphalia in here, giving them a strong hand as well. The Darley-Coolmore rivalry will be interesting to follow throughout the two days. Bittel Road is unbeaten on turf and is the morning line choice, but he hasn’t seen this kind of competition yet. Donativum is in the more than capable hands of trainer John Gosden, who knows how to have a horse at peak form when it matters most.

Selections: 1-Westphalia 2-Coronet of a Baron 3-Bittel Road 4-Donativum

Sprint
Smallest number of runners in this race since 1986, obviously a byproduct of two new races: the Filly and Mare Sprint and Dirt Mile. I doubt that defending champ Midnight Lute scared anyone away based on his only start of the year, a dismal 10th in the Pat O’Brien at Del Mar. He’s worked sensationally for Bob Baffert since then, but it’s hard to see him up sharp enough to beat the likes of Street Boss or In Summation. I give the clear nod here to the California horses, led by the Bruce Headley-trained Street Boss. My intuition tells me Bruce Headley didn’t have the son of Street Cry cranked to the max for the Ancient Title when second to Cost of Freedom, and recent works suggest he’s ready to roll here. In Summation is a thorough professional who can be counted on to run his race. Midnight Lute will be running late. Fatal Bullet has the best chance of upsetting the local horses’ applecart.

Selections: 1-Street Boss 2- In Summation 3-Midnight Lute 4-Fatal Bullet

Turf
While Europe’s bigshots were locking horns in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Oct. 5, Mike de Kock was bringing the top-class Eagle Mountain back to the races from a fractured pelvis and year layoff at Newmarket. The Rock of Gibraltor colt won the comeback, a Group 3 race at Newmarket, and some big money subsequently came in on the horse with a British bookmaker  to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf. The former Coolmore/Aidan O’Brien runner looked sharp in a morning spin at Santa Anita is primed for a big effort. Soldier of Fortune comes off a hard-fought defeat for O’Brien in the Arc. That was just his third race of the year and he might have another good one in him. Winchester turned in a monstrous performance at Arlington Park to win the Secretariat for Dermot Weld, far surpassing his European form. This is a big step up, but he showed a fondness for American style racing in that effort. Conduit completes my all- European superfecta. American turf horses appear weak again this year, but let’s not forget how English Channel romped in the 2007 Turf over supposedly superior Europeans.

Selections: 1-Eagle Mountain 2-Soldier of Fortune 3-Winchester 4-Conduit

Classic
By the time the finale rolls around, we should have a pretty good idea how European turf horses have adapted to Santa Anita’s synthetic Pro-Ride surface. I don’t have the benefit of knowing that right now, so I can only speculate how Duke of Marmalade, Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass will take to the track. But I guess we can say the same thing about Curlin, who has trained well on the track but never raced on a synthetic strip. Curlin may be the best horse we’ve seen in the last 10 years, in terms of his accomplishments if not his brilliance. But based on his last two victories over relatively weak competition, I think he’s beatable here. But who will beat him? Go Between, a synthetic track specialist who’s logged thousands of miles this year going from coast to coast? Casino Drive, the unbeaten but lightly raced, Japanese-trained sibling to two previous Belmont Stakes winners? Colonel John, the best 3-year-old in training following the retirement of Big Brown? The Aidan O’Brien duo of Duke of Marmalade and Henrythenavigator, who have combined for nine Group 1 victories on European turf this year? All have a realistic chance, but I’m taking the John Gosden-trained Raven’s Pass for the upset under Frankie Dettori. The Elusive Quality 3-year-old colt hasn’t gone beyond a mile, but Gosden knows from his previous experience in California that most top-class Europeans can stretch their ability out in the U.S. Raven’s Pass  has had a month off since defeating Henrythenavigator in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and is in absolute top form. Curlin will run hard as always, but he’s had a long year for trainer Steve Asmussen. Go Between is a steady performer for Mott, who’s handled him intelligently all year. Colonel John may be the best 3-year-old, but the jury is still out on how good this year’s sophomore crop really is.

Selections: 1-Raven’s Pass 2-Curlin 3-Go Between 4-Colonel John

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