Posts Tagged ‘Paulick Derby Index’

The last week before the Derby is usually an uneventful one for Derby lists. With no more prep races to be run, the field is generally set and fluctuation is minimal. But this year, the week of Derby has been anything but boring, mostly thanks to the barn of Todd Pletcher. Favorite Eskendereya was pulled from the trail Sunday morning after a good amount filling was found. Rule was deemed not ready and sidelined. And Devil May Care has been doing the Derby hokey pokey, putting one foot in the Oaks and one foot back. With the Oaks draw completed, DMC will certainly be headed to Saturday's main event.

Since ballots were due either during or before certain defections from the trail, our final top twenty reflects only those who may still have a chance at entering the field. With so much fluctuation this week, there was not the consensus of previous weeks with each of our top seven all receiving at least one first place vote. Devil May Care had the biggest jump, moving from off our board to 8th place. Paddy O'Prado, Interactif, Discreetly Mine and Backtalk were all unranked last week but found a home in the bottom half of the Paulick Derby Index brought to you by Vinery LTD.

By Ray Paulick
It’s been a dreary few days in the Bluegrass, with Kentucky Derby contenders putting in their final preparations over a hard, muddy racetrack that some of them obviously did not like. But with clear weather forecast for the next several days, the track will dry out by the weekend. The only question on conditions then is whether or not the predicted thunderstorms on Saturday (forecast as a 60% probability) will materialize and return the Churchill Downs racing surface to a sea of slop.

I bring that up because I am absolutely convinced track condition was a major factor in last year’s Kentucky Derby result, with Calvin Borel and Mine That Bird skimming the rail on the sloppy track, sealed by maintenance crews in an effort to keep the moisture out. Mine That Bird drew off to win by 6 3/4 lengths, the Derby’s biggest winning margin since Triple Crown winner Assault eight-length victory in 1946. No one in his right mind is comparing Mine That Bird with Assault. In fact, Mine That Bird hasn’t won since the Kentucky Derby.

Let’s hope for a fair and fast track that is without biases and provides a safe cushion for all runners.

It goes without saying the complexion of the Derby has changed in the last few days with the key defections of Eskendereya and Rule. Even without those two horses from his barn running for the roses, trainer Todd Pletcher will be represented by at least 20% of the 20-horse field (and fully one-fourth if Interactif is entered, giving him five chances to get off the 0-for-24 schneid). He’s had five horses in the gate on Derby day on one previous occasion, when his best finish was sixth. Nick Zito, with two in this year, started five in 2005, with his best finisher, favored Bellamy Road, winding up seventh. D. Wayne Lukas, who is trying to win his fifth Kentucky Derby with Dublin, had five starters in 1996, including the winner, Grindstone.

What’s more impressive to me than one trainer having so many starters is one racing stable owning three of the contenders. WinStar Farm will have a very potent trio in Super Saver, American Lion, and Endorsement, each of them with a different trainer. Hats off to racing manager Elliott Walden. (Rule would have given WinStar a fourth starter, but he is now being pointed for the Preakness).

Other numbers to ponder. No fewer than 11 of the anticipated starters were offered or sold at the Keeneland September yearling sale. Taylor Made Sales Agency counts four of the prospective field (Lookin At Lucky, Devil May Care, Conveyenace, and Mission Impazible) among its graduates, and if Backtalk manages to draw into the race, it would be five. Those are impressive figures for both Keeneland and Taylor Made.

I may be in the minority, but I’m going to miss the post position draw format where trainers and owners chose their post positions. The system could have used some  tweaking (how about setting the order of selection based on points earned in Graded stakes?), but I thought it brought more attention to the draw than the old-fashioned pill-pull.

So, one day before the post positions are drawn, here is my final Top 10, with some significant changes from last week, based on the defections of Eskendereya and Rule and the final workouts that I’ve seen of the leading contenders.

1. Lookin At Lucky. Even if Eskendereya hadn’t dropped out due to injury, that workout turned in Monday morning might have put the Bob Baffert-trained son of Smart Strike on top in my list. He absolutely glided over a racing surface that many horses struggled with in what was as good a final workout before the Derby as I’ve seen.  Baffert is as skilled as anyone at getting a horse ready for a peak performance, and Lookin At Lucky is quite a horse to begin with. With a good trip (and that hasn’t him lately), Lookin At Lucky should win the 136th Kentucky Derby

2. Sidney’s Candy. Post position will be an important factor as the son of Candy Ride needs to find a comfortable position just off the lead. He’s been unchallenged on the lead through slow fractions in his only two-turn starts—victories in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby–but whether or not he can rate behind horses will be the key. John Sadler is overdue to win a big race outside of California.

3. Noble’s Promise. Threw  this horse off my list last week, thinking he might not even make the Derby, but I have since come to believe the problems that arose after his troubled trip in the Arkansas Derby have had no impact on his training. His workout on Monday morning was the second best behind Lookin At Lucky, and he has been extremely competitive with last year’s 2-year-old champion when they’ve gone head to head. My biggest concern is that pedigree, which does not suggest stamina.

4. Ice Box. I’m still very skeptical of the quality of the Florida Derby field this year, but Nick Zito seems confident in the Pulpit colt’s ability and condition. He figures to get a great trip, and the only quest is whether he’s good enough. I don’t think he’s the best horse in the field, but as we have seen on many occasions (including the Zito-trained Strike the Gold’s 1991 victory), the best horse doesn’t always win.

5. American Lion. My prediction is that history will show the California horses were the strongest group that came to Churchill Downs, and he could be competitive on his best day. The Tiznow colt is a good physical specimen, is by a sire that certainly could get the distance, and is in the hands of a very good horseman in Eoin Harty.

6. Awesome Act. It’s going to be interesting to see how the Awesome Again colt settles into the race on Saturday. Some horses from Europe adapt easily to American dirt racing and others do not. He never appeared to settle that well in the Wood Memorial, but he had some excuses that day. Has trained well up over the Churchill strip.

7. Dublin. Son of Afleet Alex has slipped a few spots on my list because of his erratic behavior during the mornings but he does have ability.

8. Mission Impazible. Can’t really rate the Louisiana Derby one of the strongest prep races of the season, but the Unbridled’s Song colt was competitive against Conveyance and Dublin in the Southwest Stakes before that, going very wide in a race he probably benefited from, as it was his first time around two turns.

9. Endorsement. This would be quite a training accomplishment by Shannon Ritter to win the Kentucky Derby with a colt that was still a maiden until late February. He has trained so well since winning the Sunland Derby in New Mexico and has a pedigree strengthened for stamina with A.P. Indy on the bottom.

10. Stately Victor. I’m sure I’m not the only one still shaking my head over the huge turnaround in form when he dominated the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes after suffering through five off-the-board performances. Was that race a fluke, or is this son of Ghostzapper coming to hand at just the right time for trainer Mike Maker? We’ll know early Saturday evening.

As expected, there was not much movement in the polls this week with an uneventful Coolmore Lexington Stakes running on Saturday as the only potential prep race. Because the minimum in stakes earnings this year could be as high as $250,000, several colts either on our list or previously listed may find their standing improved after this weekend's Derby Trial. Other than that, barring any breakthrough workouts or last minute injuries, the PDI top twenty does not look likely to move much.

By Ray Paulick
With all the serious Kentucky Derby preps in the books (and, sorry, but I think Saturday’s Derby Trial at Churchill Downs is more of a Preakness “trial”), it’s time to focus on workouts instead of races. Almost all of the horses in the Kentucky Derby’s prospective field will be on the grounds in the next few days, and we’ll start hearing more about who is blossoming in the springtime and who may be wilting.

It’s not just the timed workouts and how the horses gallop out afterwards that are important considerations in these last two weeks before the Run for the Roses, but how the 3-year-olds go about their business in other morning activities is just as important. They are, after all, athletes who are training for the biggest day of their lives. Are they eager and on the muscle when they jog or gallop, or more docile and disinterested? Think about how Muhammad Ali trained for his “rumble in the jungle” in Zaire—with fun and enthusiasm. His opponent, George Foreman, was sullen and unhappy. The results of the fight, with Ali whuppin’ up on Foreman, was a reflection of how they trained.

You might think the official Kentucky Derby website would make it easy to follow the Derby contenders during their workouts and training, but, if you’re like me, you’ll be disappointed. I went to www.kentuckyderby.com and clicked under the “News and Video” tab at the top of the page, expecting, for example, to see Dublin’s workout from Monday morning. Instead, I am offered a menu of videos like “How to pick your Derby hat,” “Derby hairstyles that work with your Derby hat,” and “how to make an original Bacardi mojito.”

Thanks, fellas.

Fortunately, starting this weekend, I would expect HRTV (co-owned by Churchill Downs) to show workouts and training films during their “Pursuit of the Crown” telecasts.

For those who have been fortunate to see some of the Derby contenders in the flesh during the winter, it’s a great exercise to see if you can discern any physical developments: are they filling out and muscling up (not as exaggerated these days now that anabolic steroids are regulated and effectively banned)? Do their coats look shiny and healthier than ever (we love those dapples!)?

Nick Zito, a two-time Derby winning trainer, has long talked about how horses can really develop in Kentucky during the springtime–something about that bluegrass they graze on.

Another factor to look for in the next two weeks is “trainerspeak.” When it comes to the Derby, there are no “little setbacks.” To win the Kentucky Derby, everything has to go right. Workouts can’t be botched or missed, fevers or minor problems can’t be overcome in the final days before the big race. Remember the quarter crack to Unbridled’s Song? Empire Maker’s bruised heel? Old Trieste’s ridiculously fast workout?

As the late Dan Fogelberg sang in Run for the Roses, “It’s the chance of a lifetime in a lifetime of chance.” That’s the Kentucky Derby, where nothing is certain.

The more things change in the PDI, the more they stay the same at the top as our top three stay in place for another week. After Eskendereya, Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy, fluctuation is the name of the game. A strange weekend of results have left many of our voters scratching their heads with support for 28 different horses in a graded stakes earnings field that seems pretty well set.

The biggest losers of this weekend were Odysseus whose bone chip has taken him off the trail and Noble’s Promise whose connections have indicated a possibility he won’t run for the roses despite shipping him to Churchill anyways. This news has dropped the once perennial top five pick to tied for 10th in this week’s Paulick Derby Index brought to you by Vinery LTD.

On the plus side, previously unknowns Stately Victor and Line of David have both appeared on the PDI for the first time all season. After unlikely victories in the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby, they have certainly punched their tickets for Louisville. But our voters do seem skeptical of their chances, dropping them in 16th and 17th place respectively. And a strong second place finish in the Arkansas Derby has thrust Super Saver back into the top ten after being dropped to 17th the week before.

By Ray Paulick
Three of the last six winners of the Kentucky Derby were the betting favorites in the race, though none of them were bet down the way Eskendereya is expected to be following his crushing victories in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park and Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. Mike Battaglia, who makes the morning line for Churchill Downs, said he’ll install the son of Giant’s Causeway at 2-1 or 5-2 and thinks the public could bet him down to as low as 8-5, which would make Eskendereya the shortest-priced Derby favorite since Arazi, who finished eighth at 9-10 odds in the 1992 renewal. Only one horse since then, Point Given, fifth at 9-5 odds in 2001, has been less than 2-1 in the betting.

Backing favorites in the Kentucky Derby has been a dicey proposition, with only 16 of the last 60 (26%) betting favorites being victorious. That’s considerably less than the 33% standard for winning favorites, but the Derby is different and more difficult for two reasons: it’s the first chance horses have to race at the distance of a mile and a quarter, and the field size for the Derby is almost always larger than a typical American horse race. So perhaps 26% winning favorites isn’t such a bad figure after all.

Consider also that there were zero winning favorites in the 1980s and ‘90s. In the 1970s, when we saw three Triple Crown winners in Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed, there were six favorites that won the Kentucky Derby. Since 2000, four of the 10 Derby winners were favorites: Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, Smarty Jones in 2004, Street Sense in 2007, and Big Brown in 2008.

Is the year the longest Triple Crown drought in history will end?  Sir Barton is credited with being the first Triple Crown winner in 1919, and he was followed by Gallant Fox in 1930, Omaha in 1935, and War Admiral in 1937. There were four Triple Crown winners in the 1940s—Whirlaway in ’41, Count Fleet in ’43, Assault in ’46 and Citation in ’48—but then none until Secretariat in 1973, a gap of 25 years. Four years later, Seattle Slew won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes, and Affirmed followed up by sweeping the series in 1978. It’s been 32 years, and though we’ve had 11 horses since then take the first two legs, none has been able to finish the job.
Could this be the year?

Eskendereya certainly has a great deal in his favor: excellent cruising speed, versatility and athleticism, and a pedigree that suggests he can handle a distance of ground. But he faces some strong challenges, not the least of which will come from last year’s 2-year-old champion, Lookin At Lucky.

1. Eskendereya. Interesting move by trainer Todd Pletcher to send the son of Giant’s Causeway back to Florida’s Palm Meadows training center after he won the Wood Memorial in New York. Can’t blame Pletcher for trying something a little different after so many previous efforts to win the Kentucky Derby have failed.

2. Lookin At Lucky. If any horse has been through the gauntlet of challenges you might find with a huge field on Kentucky Derby day, it’s the Bob Baffert-trained 2-year-old champion. He’s had plenty of racing experience, competed in front of big crowds, and had more than his share of traffic problem, yet always shows up and gives 100%.

3. Sidney’s Candy.  Nothing would surprise me, because there are some big unanswered questions regarding the John Sadler-trained son of Candy Ride. First, he’s only competed on synthetic tracks since debuting at Del Mar last July. Second, his two front-running victories around two turns in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby were accomplished without any pressure on the lead. He’s shown he can rate on the front end, but how will he respond to pressure?

4. Dublin. Ran a creditable race in the Arkansas Derby, his third good though non-winning effort of the spring. Look for trainer D. Wayne Lukas to have the son of Afleet Alex in peak condition for the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs.

5. American Lion. Seems to be best racing on the front end, as he showed in the Illinois Derby, but doesn’t look like the speed of the speed in the Derby line-up. Tiznow colt should not be overlooked entirely.

6. Line of David. Late bloomer by Lion Heart comes into the Derby off three straight winning performances, including a maiden race in mid-February. Trainer John Sadler has a strong pair of Kentucky Derby contenders and is overdue to make a splash on the national scene after being an increasingly major force in California racing in recent years. Problem with Line of David may be his running style in what appears to be a speed-heavy lineup.

7. Ice Box. Remember the Florida Derby? Long time ago, wasn’t it? Ice Box benefits by being a pure closer in a race with lots of early speed, but I’d prefer to have seen another race out of the son of Pulpit between his upset in the Florida Derby in mid-March and the Kentucky Derby on May 1.

8. Rule. His stock may have shifted downward after Pleasant Prince, the horse who nearly won the Florida Derby (won  by Ice Box, with Rule third), ran so poorly in the Toyota Blue Grass. But the Blue Grass has become almost a throw-out race as far as offering meaningful results in recent years. Rule has probably had the softest path to the Kentucky Derby of any Pletcher horse since winning the Delta Jackpot last December.

9. Super Saver. Son of Maria’s Mon should benefit from his race in the Arkansas Derby, where he showed an ability to rate just off the lead. Didn’t have enough closing kick to get the job done against Line of David, but has been a consistent performer since debuting at Saratoga last summer and has an important win over the Churchill Downs track in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.

10. Stately Victor. Where has this horse been hiding the last seven months since breaking his maiden at Saratoga? Is this son of Ghostzapper similar to the late-developing Derby winner Charismatic, who found his best stride at Keeneland in the Lexington Stakes, or is he just the latest in a line of puzzling Blue Grass Stakes winners? I’d vote for the latter.

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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Unlike most polls, the Paulick Derby Index had no change in the top two from last week as we already had Eskendereya in the one position. Of course, the gap widened after Lookin at Lucky's troubled trip in the Santa Anita Derby. And despite the dominating victory by Sidney's Candy over Lucky, he was only moved up to the third position perhaps indicating that most of our voters acknowledged the lack of a frontrunner to challenge the Candy Ride colt.

Caracortado and Awesome Act had the steepest falls while still on our list with fourth and third place finishes in the Wood and Santa Anita Derby respectively. Schoolyard Dreams, Discreetly Mine and Pleasant Prince all fell off the top 20 and while the first two came up short in their Derby prep races Pleasant Prince seems to have just been forgotten since his final prep is actually this weekend in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Brand new to the list is Setsuko who made a late charge to finish second in Santa Anita. Premiering in the 15 hole, voters chose quality over likelihood since his $180,000 in graded stakes cash has him currently on the outside looking in. Former PDI colts Jackson Bend and American Lion are also back on the list after impressive performances in the Wood and Illinois Derby.

The Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby and Illinois Derby helped give us a better understanding of some of the contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby.

First, we have a clear favorite for the May 1 Run for the Roses in the Giant’s Causeway colt Eskendereya, who came from just off the pace at Aqueduct to win the Wood in a manner every bit as convincing as his wire-to-wire romp at Gulfstream Park in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes. The Todd Pletcher trained colt does not have to carry his racetrack around with him. It was a flawless performance and gives Pletcher his strongest Kentucky Derby starter ever.

We also learned that Lookin At Lucky hasn’t been very lucky in his last two starts, getting into tight situations that nearly caused him to go down, and take with him trainer Bob Baffert’s best chance to win a fourth Kentucky Derby. But in defeat, Lookin At Lucky gained additional admirers for his tenacity and gameness after getting stopped suddenly on the final turn.

We already knew from the San Felipe Stakes the John Sadler-trained Sidney’s Candy could win around two turns going soft fractions, but we learned the Candy Ride colt had no trouble with the extra sixteenth of a mile in the nine-furlong Santa Anita Derby.

At Hawthorne in Chicago, we learned not to give up just yet on American Lion, who showed he may like conventional dirt tracks more than synthetics by winning the Illinois Derby for trainer Eoin Harty.

There’s more to learn this weekend, but no matter the results of the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes, no one is going to displace Eskendereya from the favorite’s role at Churchill Downs May 1.

1. Eskendereya. If I had to look for a reason to not like his winning run in the Wood, it might be that the competition wasn’t that strong. Awesome Act beat a weak field in the Gotham Stakes and Schoolyard Dreams was nosed out in a Tampa Bay Derby field questionable in quality. Still, that was a memorable triumph in what I think traditionally is the most important final prep before the Kentucky Derby.

2. Lookin At Lucky. Got off to a poor start in the Santa Anita Derby, then was put in a spot on the inside by Garrett Gomez that could lead to trouble—and it did. But I wasn’t expecting him to win the Santa Anita Derby, even without the trouble. Two of Bob Baffert’s previous Kentucky Derby winners (Silver Charm and Real Quiet) came off good non-winning performances at Santa Anita, and I would qualify the Smart Strike colt’s in that same category.

3. Sidney’s Candy. Can’t ignore this colt as a legitimate threat, even though he’s gotten away with very soft fractions in both of his two-turn stakes victories at Santa Anita. I can’t imagine he’ll the same type of pace on Derby day.

4. Noble’s Promise. Saturday’s Arkansas Derby would be a good time for the Cuvee colt to step up with a breakout win that shows he can do more than compete at the top level. Ken McPeek has had some bad luck at Oaklawn and is overdue to come out on the winning side of a photo there.

5.Dublin. Should advance off his third-place Rebel finish to Lookin At Lucky and Noble’s Promise in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby for D. Wayne Lukas. Doesn’t need to win but has to keep moving in a forward direction.

6. American Lion. Illinois Derby was Tiznow colt’s last chance to make the Kentucky Derby field, and he really seemed to relish the change in surface to dirt. Bodes well for a decent showing at Churchill Downs, though victory would be a longshot.

7. Ice Box. Certainly not taking a convention route to the Kentucky Derby off a long layoff following his upset of the Florida Derby. As Nick Zito has said, this is when 3-year-olds improve, so I can’t rule him out completely.

8. Rule. Third-place finisher in the Florida Derby is one of the reasons Sidney’s Candy won’t have an easy time of it on the lead at Churchill Downs. Todd Pletcher may want to see the colt rate from off the lead, but Rule might have the final say.

9. Mission Impazible. Part of the Magnificent Seven or whatever the Pletcher starters will be called for the Kentucky Derby. Deserves to be there off his win in the Louisiana Derby, but seems unlikely to win.

10 Awesome Act. Looked like he was ready to pounce on the lead in the Wood Memorial on the turn for home, but looked helpless against Eskendereya. Awesome Again colt threw a shoe at the start, but there’s no way of knowing how much of an impact that had on the result. My opinion: not enough to think he’ll reserve the order of finish next time out.

Due to nothing that happened on the track, our deadlock at the top has been broken with Eskendereya leading the poll despite Lookin at Lucky’s lead in first place voting. It appears there is a synthetic bias with some of our voters, who despite Lucky’s win on dirt in the Rebel Stakes, undervalue his California racing career, ranking him as low as sixth on one ballot. Besides that, the only major change in our top ten is due to the results of the Sunland Derby, with our voters rewarding Endorsement with their…fighting obvious pun…endorsement (just couldn’t help myself). Conveyance, due to his distant second-place finish, dropped from tied for sixth to 14th place.

The other newcomers to our poll were Louisiana Derby winner Mission Impazible (tied for 13th) and Pleasant Prince, who squeaked into the 20th position. Jackson Bend joined Stay Put and American Lion in falling off our poll, once again losing significant ground without any adverse action by him or his connections.

By Ray Paulick
Was there ever a stronger baseball lineup than the 1927 New York Yankees? What an offensive juggernaut they were, led by Babe Ruth’s .356 batting average, 164 runs batted in, and 60 home runs. But the strength of that team–one that set an American League of 110 wins and swept the Pittsburgh Pirates to win the World Series—was its depth. Five of the eight position starters batted over .300, with four players driving in more than 100 runs, topped by Lou Gehrig’s 175 RBI. They had pitching, too, but this Yankees lineup was best known for Murderers’ Row, the powerhouse offense that terrorized opposition pitchers.

Todd Pletcher’s 2010 Triple Crown contenders look like a Murderers’ Row of the Thoroughbred world. He has done an amazing job juggling his horses and owners, and this lineup could be every bit as powerful as the ’27 Yankees.

The big difference between that Yankee team and Pletcher’s amazing shedrow of—pick a number, five, six or seven–Derby contenders is that the Bronx Bombers had won the big one, the World Series, but only once prior to 1927. They had come up on the losing side on three occasions.

Pletcher, while widely decorated with Grade 1 victories from coast to coast, has the worst record of futility in Kentucky Derby history, famously going 0-for-24 in nine appearances, including a five-horse wipeout in 2007 that finished sixth, eighth, ninth, 18th and 20th. He’s had more starters finish last than in the top three.

Nobody remembers the Yankees having lost three of their first four World Series, and I suspect when Pletcher’s stellar training career is over, his 0-for-24 start in the Derby will be a distant memory. His old boss, D. Wayne Lukas, started out 0-for-12 in the Derby, and no one talks about that anymore. It’s his four victories most people remember.

Pletcher is playing it close to the vest with some of the horses. He’s got Mission Impazible, Rule and Discreetly Mine safely in the Derby lineup on graded/group stakes earnings, with Eskendereya (Wood Memorial), Super Saver (Arkansas Derby), Interactif and Aikenite (both in the Blue Grass) scheduled to race in the next two weeks.

1. Eskendereya. Needs a good performance in Saturday’s Wood Memorial to not only go into the Kentucky Derby on a positive note but doesn’t currently have enough graded/group stakes earnings to ensure a spot in the starting gate. Currently the clean-up hitter in Pletcher’s barn.

2. Lookin At Lucky. Decision by trainer Bob Baffert to leave the 2-year-old champ at home and go in Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby suggests the race is more about having the right fitness level before shipping to Kentucky than proving how good he is. I think he’s already done that. In other words, a defeat wouldn’t be the end of the world.

3. Noble’s Promise. Working up to the April 10 Arkansas Derby for Ken McPeek. Didn’t show a lot in a five-furlong breeze the other day but McPeek will ask for much more in his next tune-up. Showed he could handle dirt when narrowly defeated by Lookin At Lucky in the Rebel and is as consistent as they come.

4. Dublin. Afleet Alex colt had a sharp six-panel workout Saturday morning. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas said Terry Thompson will regain the mount in the Arkansas Derby after he was replaced by Corey Nakatani in the Rebel, where he finished third.

5. Awesome Act. Gotham Stakes winner moved up on my list as others came up short in important preps. We’ll know a whole lot more about this son of Awesome Again following the Wood Memorial.

6. Sidney’s Candy. I doubt Joe Talamo will get away with an opening quarter mile of 24 seconds in the Santa Anita Derby, as he did when waltzing around Santa Anita Park to win the San Felipe last time out. Saturday’s race will determine if the John Sadler-trained colt will be a serious contender in Kentucky.

7. Ice Box. I continue to have doubts about the quality of this year’s Florida Derby, though 3-year-olds can improve by leaps and bounds this time of year. Maybe that was the case with this son of Pulpit, and trainer Nick Zito has a knack for having horses ready on big days. Still, with his running style, he’ll need everything to go his way to have a chance at Churchill Downs.

8. Rule. In hindsight, Roman Ruler colt ran a better-than-looked race in the Florida Derby, going too fast early under John Velazquez and still having some fight down the stretch to only lose by a length and a quarter. He still hasn’t shown any desire to come from off the pace, something that might be necessary in a speed-heavy Kentucky Derby field.

9. Mission Impazible. Son of Unbridled’s Song grinded out a hard-fought win in Saturday’s Louisiana Derby, but only beat a stretching-out sprinter in the process, not exactly a ringing endorsement. Louisiana Derby hasn’t been the most effective Kentucky Derby prep, and I think this year’s Fair Grounds field will come up as ordinary.

10. Odysseus. Apparently will go next in the Blue Grass Stakes, a race that’s had some strange results in recent years. If nothing else, the son of Malibu Moon will benefit from having another race under his belt since winning the strangely run Tampa Bay Derby in mid-March.

What are the odds that there would be a tie at the top of any poll with 28 participating voters (unfortunately one of our voters was unable to weigh in this week)? Pretty good, it appears. Unlike other polls out there, the Paulick Derby Index shows a dead lock for first with Rebel Stakes winner Lookin At Lucky and Fountain of Youth victor and likely Florida Derby favorite Eskendereya sharing the top line. And it’s probably pretty appropriate as both horses fought off impressive fields to win their respective prep races.

Speaking of the Rebel Stakes, it was a tale of two finishers in place and show positions. Noble’s Promise’s performance, despite being nosed at the end, shot the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile third-place colt to the number four position this week while wise guy favorite Dublin dropped to nine in our poll. But with the tendency for third-place finishers to be forgotten in polls like these, it is a strong sign of the continued belief in this early favorite as a true Derby contender.

San Felipe wire-to-wire winner Sidney’s Candy rocketed from nineteenth to fifth after an eye-opening outing with second place finisher Interactif getting back on the big board at number twelve. And Tampa Bay Derby winner Odysseus became the new number six while previously unheralded Schoolyard Dreams went from zero votes to fifteenth after being narrowly beaten.

Sadly, early favorite Buddy’s Saint leads the list of those who dropped off our rankings after being pulled from the Derby Trail. The list includes American Lion, Dave in Dixie, A Little Warm and Uptowncharlybrown.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

I don’t think there has been a stronger race for 3-year-olds in 2010 than Saturday’s Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park and I am convinced that the three finishers—winner Lookin At Lucky, runner-up Noble’s Promise and third-place finisher Dublin—will be serious contenders in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby come May 1.

I know the Beyer Speed Figures came up much lower for Lookin At Lucky (97) than they did for last month’s Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth winner Eskendereya (106), but if the “best” Beyers determined the Derby winner, wouldn’t Andy Beyer, the creator of those figures, have a much better record of picking winners in the Kentucky Derby than he has over the years? I’m not putting the knock on Andy or his figures, because I believe they are a great handicapping tool in day-to-day races. But the Kentucky Derby is unlike any other race on the calendar, and there are a multitude of other factors that have to be considered beyond a simple numeric figure.

The top three Rebel finishers were all Grade 1 winners, and they all ran to their form. Lookin At Lucky had a lot of trouble midway down the backstretch when Robby Albarado aboard Noble’s Promise did some race riding to keep Garrett Gomez and Lucky boxed in and the latter had to jump over his heels to avoid possible disaster. That move displayed Lookin At Lucky’s great athleticism, and his recovery from the incident showed how determined he was to get back into the race and wear Noble’s Promise down at the wear. Dublin was wide most of the way. And Noble’s Promise never stopped running, though for the third consecutive start he finished just behind Lookin At Lucky.

The victory by Odysseus in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby was not visually impressive. The Malibu Moon colt got a good trip but started to fade around the final turn, only to re-rally in deep stretch to snatch the victory from Sam F. Davis runner-up Schoolyard Dreams and front-runner Super Saver, winner of last year’s Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and the only graded stakes winner in the field. I think the front-runners tired more than Odysseus came again. I want to see him face tougher competition before jumping on his bandwagon.

Finally, there was the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita, where a strategic decision to take American Lion off the pace virtually gave the race to the front-running Sidney’s Candy, who got away to an uncontested lead and easy fractions throughout. It’s hard to learn much from that kind of a race, but I’ve decided to take Dave in Dixie out of my top 10 after he failed to show any late kick.

1. Eskendereya. If Lookin At Lucky’s Rebel win was so impressive, why have I left Eskendereya on the top of my list? Because I believe the Giant’s Causeway colt is on the way up for trainer Todd Pletcher, while Lookin At Lucky has achieved close to his full potential. We’ll see if he can back that claim up with another strong performance this week in the Florida Derby.

2. Lookin At Lucky. Trainer Bob Baffert said the Smart Strike colt reminds him a lot of Silver Charm—he gives everything he’s got in every start. He proved that in winning the Rebel after the scary incident at the half-mile pole. Baffert hasn’t fully wound up Lookin At Lucky, as the Rebel was his 2010 debut.

3. Noble’s Promise. Cuvee colt proved he’s not just a turf or synthetic track horse, running his eyeballs out in his first try on dirt and in his 2010 debut. I don’t see a lot of stamina in that pedigree (out of a Clever Trick mare), but this is a hard-trying horse in the hands of the very capable Ken McPeek.

4. Dublin. I doubt that trainer Wayne Lukas was discouraged by the Afleet Alex colt’s third-place finish in the Rebel. He was wide all the way and I’m sure Lukas has not brought him to his peak physically in mid-March. Look for further improvement as May 1 approaches.

5. Rule. Roman Ruler colt getting the kid gloves treatment from Pletcher after getting all the graded stakes money he needed as a 2-year-old to crack the Derby line-up.  Possible for Florida Derby but more likely in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

6. Discreetly Mine. Another Pletcher Derby contender, this one pointing for the Louisiana Derby a week from Saturday. Comes off an easy win there in the Risen Star Stakes and will be favored to repeat.

7. Conveyance. Heading to New Mexico for the rich Sunland Park Derby, where Mine That Bird prepped last year. Trainer Baffert has had some success in New Mexico, having sent Real Quiet there en route to his Kentucky Derby victory.

8. Awesome Act. Moved up on my list by virtue of some of the disappointing performances in the San Felipe Stakes. If he can do in the Wood Memorial what he showed in the Gotham Stakes he’ll be a legit contender for British-based trainer Jeremy Noseda.

9. Sidney’s Candy. Tough to gauge how good he is because of the way the San Felipe was run, getting an easy lead and setting soft fractions in his first try around two turns, winning over turf horse Interactif. Candy Ride colt out of a Storm Cat mare is trained by John Sadler, a dominant trainer in California who is little known on the national stage.

10.  Odysseus. Showed determination in deep stretch, getting up to win Tampa Bay Derby after looking like a sure loser at the top of the stretch. Were those front-runners backing up or did Malibu Moon colt find a second wind?

While the top four stayed the same, there were some interesting developments in the Paulick Derby Index brought to you by Vinery LTD. The most obvious was Awesome Act’s giant leap to number nine in our poll. Last week, the British invader did not receive a single vote from our 29-vote panel.

While Alphie’s Bet picked up one 10th-place vote this week, the real winner was Caracortado, whose victory over the Sham Stakes winner in Santa Anita’s Cal Breeders is evidence that there may be more to this horse. Our voters noticed too, moving him up one spot to number five.

Through no recent fault of their own, Connemara and Drosselmeyer were both dropped from the rankings this week. They were replaced with a trio of horses in A Little Warm, Eightyfiveinafifty and Uptowncharlybrown. Each of these horses hold the distinction of only being on one voter’s ballot but placed in the fourth spot, a ranking high enough to find themselves tied at twenty.

Click here for a list of all the 2010 Derby preps and here for the current list of contenders by graded stakes earnings.

Following is Ray Paulick’s analysis and Top 10.

– Bradford Cummings

By Ray Paulick
Sometimes flattery does get you somewhere. In the case of the unbeaten California-bred Caracortado, he was flattered when another Cal-bred, Alphie’s Bet, won last weekend’s Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita. Two races earlier in his career, while still a maiden, Alphie’s Bet had finished second to Caracortado in the California Breeders’ Champion Stakes. Caracortado subsequently won the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes to extend his unbeaten string to five and he looks even better now after the Sham. As a result, the son of Cat Dreams moved up several spots on my list of Kentucky Derby contenders.

I try not to get oversold on winners of the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes, no matter how impressive they look, and Awesome Act looked mighty impressive, taking control of the race at the top of the stretch with jockey Julien Leparoux sitting like a statue. This was the first start on dirt for the European import trained by Jeremy Noseda, and the son of Awesome Again proved without a doubt he can handle that surface. I put Awesome Act at No. 10, bumping Buddy’s Saint from the list. Still, of all the Gotham winners since 1953, only Secretariat has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby.
 
A lot of questions will be answered by the big three Triple Crown preps this weekend: the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita, Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn, and Grade 3 Ta mpa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs. Foremost among those questions is how 2009 2-year-old champion Lookin At Lucky will handle dirt for the first time after racing exclusively on synthetic tracks in California when he makes his seasonal debut in the Rebel.

No matter how that question is answered, a lot of Top 10 lists figure to look much different next week following these three big preps than they do today. Here’s my current list of leading contenders:
1. Eskendereya. Giant’s Causeway colt will stay on top of my list till he loses. Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth looked to be the strongest win by a 3-year-old thus far this year.

2. Lookin At Lucky. Son of Smart Strike seems to have a bunch of people training him. There’s been a great deal of second-guessing about those slow workouts, but Bob Baffert knows more about how to get a horse to the Kentucky Derby in the right condition than all his critics combined. Interesting move sending the colt to Arkansas for the Rebel to see how he adapts to dirt.

3. Rule. Has all the graded stakes money he needs to ensure a spot in the starting line-up on the first Saturday in May, but Roman Ruler colts needs to be tested against better competition before then. Trainer Todd Pletcher juggling his 3-year-old stars in hopes of avoiding one another, and has talked about possibly sending Rule to Aqueduct for the Wood.

4. American Lion. Son of Tiznow should be a lot tighter for his second time around two turns this Saturday in the San Felipe after getting a bit tired down the stretch when hooked up in a speed duel with Tiz Chrome in Robert Lewis Stakes.

5. Dave in Dixie. Have always been a sucker for horses that close with the kind of intensity this son of Dixie Union has shown in his races (going back 30 years ago to the Cal-bred Rumbo, who finished second in both the Santa Anita and Hollywood Derbies and only needed an extra furlong  in order to win—at least in my mind—but could do no better than second to Genuine Risk in the Kentucky Derby). Dave in Dixie has looked very good in his works since finishing second to Caracortado in the Lewis and I think is sitting on an upset in the San Felipe.

6. Discreetly Mine. Awaiting the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, where he
cruised to victory last time out in the Grade 2 Risen Star.

7. Caracortado.  Benefited from a perfect trip last time out when rallying to an impressive win in the Robert Lewis, but good horses often can avoid trouble and get the trip because of tractable speed. Am still not fully convinced he’s the real thing.

8. Conveyance. Baffert said the Indian Charlie colt will stay in the U.S. rather than ship to Dubai for the U.A.E Derby and probably opt for the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby next out.

9. Dublin. For this weekend’s Rebel Stakes, son of Afleet Alex has picked up the riding services of Corey Nakatani, who will replace Terry Thompson after a second-place finish to Conveyance in the Southwest Stakes. A good horse in the hands of D. Wayne Lukas at this time of year can spell trouble for all his opponents. Certainly worth watching in the Rebel.

10. Awesome Act.  Looked very good winning the Gotham over a weak field and we really won’t know how good son of Awesome Again is until he gets a stiffer test in the Wood.

By Ray Paulick
Is it just me, or is this year’s Triple Crown trail looking more and more like a Winter Olympics short-track speedskating race, with lots of false starts, problems with the racing surface, unpredictable results, and a narrow focus on two principals from the East and West.
 
In short-track it was Apolo Anton Ohno of the U.S. and Lee Ho-Suk of Korea who seemed to be in contention in every heat. In horse racing, it’s the West’s Bob Baffert and the East’s Todd Pletcher getting most of the exposure.

There are no false starts in horse racing, but there have been several postponements due to weather, the Feb 27 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita being the latest of several races delayed this winter because of rough weather or bad track conditions. The Sham has been rescheduled for this Saturday, the same day the Gotham Stakes takes place at Aqueduct.

(Click here for the schedule of races leading up to the May 1 Kentucky Derby.)

The following weekend is when we should get a much better read on some of the top contenders, in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs, and Santa Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. Of particular interest is the Rebel Stakes, where Baffert is pointing 2009 Eclipse Award winner and once-beaten Lookin At Lucky in what would be his debut on a conventional dirt track. All of his previous races have been on synthetics in California. Among his anticipated rivals is the Pletcher-trained Super Saver, winner of last year’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. Both horses will be making their 2010 debuts.

While Baffert has won three Kentucky Derbys and Pletcher is searching for his first, there’s another trainer with a little Triple Crown experience who could have a say in the outcome of the Rebel. That would be D. Wayne Lukas, who trains Dublin, runner-up to the Baffert-trained Conveyance in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. The sage turf writer Bill Nack warned me not to overlook Lukas when he has a good one, and the son of Afleet Alex certainly has ability, as shown last year when winning the Hopeful at Saratoga and in his 2010 debut at Oaklawn.

The Tampa Bay Derby has developed into an important prep, too, and of great interest in that race will be Padua Stables Odysseus, winner of a Tampa Bay allowance last month by 15 lengths. The San Felipe will be a chance to sort out the West Coast’s top synthetic runners, but it won’t really answer any questions about their chances of winning on dirt at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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The saga of Ahmed Zayat’s Zayat Stables and the Fifth Third Bank that sued the stable took an interesting turn over the weekend when Eskendereya ran away and hid from nine rivals in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Just as Fifth Third was pushing for the authority to take over and manage the Zayat Stable assets, Eskendereya, one of those assets, exploded in value with his overpowering 8 1/2-length victory that vaulted him to the top of numerous rankings of Kentucky Derby contenders, including my own. At this stage of the dispute, it would be difficult to convince a bankruptcy court judge that a bank would do a better job managing a racing stable than the team that Zayat has assembled over the last several years, when he has ranked among the leading owners in North America, retired two top stallion prospects to the breeding shed (multiple Grade 1 winner Zensational and Kentucky Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile) and developed a leading candidate for the 2010 Kentucky Derby. The bank most recently dropped their demand for a trustee to be appointed to manage the assets.

So Zayat, despite filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, holds some pretty good cards in his hand right now, led by the ace of the stable, Eskendereya, whose value probably increased tenfold with that Fountain of Youth victory.

Under normal circumstances, offers from stallion farms would start flooding in on a horse like Eskendereya, considering how he dismantled a good field and the pedigree he carries (Giant’s Causeway out of a Seattle Slew mare). But if the horse is worth $5 million or more and Zayat decides to sell all or part of him, how much of a dent would that put on the reported $34 million he is said ot owe Fifth Third? Probably not enough to convince Zayat to sell, especially given his personal quest to win big races like the Kentucky Derby. Besides, if Eskendereya runs the table and wins the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown (and we’re not making that prediction), he’s probably worth tens of millions of dollars and closer to bailing Zayat out in one fell swoop.

On the other side of this rather expensive coin is the grim reality that what goes up also can come down. If Eskendereya is worth $5 million today after a Grade 2 victory, what would he be worth if he throws in a clunker next time out and fails to hit the board? Answer: a lot less than what he is worth today.

Zayat is a gambler, both at the betting windows and in the auction ring. He’s gambled tens of millions of dollars that he can increase the value of his bloodstock assets, and I would bet that he will not be willing to sell a cherished property like Eskendereya as long as there is more upside available. His track record in the horse business suggests he does not sell on the way up.

I think it goes without saying Fifth Third would like Zayat to monetize some assets, but he is currently holding the cards. 

Click here for Ray’s Under The Raydar segment

Following is my latest top 10 horses for the Paulick Derby Index:
 
1. Eskendereya. Leader of Todd’s Squad, perhaps the strongest group of horses multiple Eclipse Award-winning trainer Todd Pletcher has ever had in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby, where his futility is well documented. Pletcher will win more than one Derby before his career is over.

2. Lookin At Lucky. Still awaiting the 2009 2-year-old champion’s seasonal debut. Bob Baffert trained the son of Smart Strike cautiously last weekend when rain hitouthern California. If he has no prep on dirt prior to the Kentucky Derby, this one will be tough to gauge.

3. Rule. Pletcher has some time on the sidelines, thanks to the suspension he received as a result of a positive test at the 2008 Breeders’ Cup. He can use the down time to map out a road to the Derby for his various candidates, including this son of Roman Ruler, who has looked good beating up on relatively weak competition.

4. American Lion. Assuming Eoin Harty will keep Tiznow colt on synthetic surfaces until testing him at Churchill Downs. At this stage he looks to be part of a heavy speed brigade among the various contenders.

5. Dave in Dixie. Can’t wait to see this Dixie Union colt’s next start for trainer John Sadler. Finished with a tremendous burst in deep stretch in the Robert Lewis Stakes and figures to improve with racing.

6. Discreetly Mine. Pletcher-trained colt fits the profile of a Kentucky Derby winner in so many ways: a lot of racing experience at two, strong performances in graded stakes, and a pedigree (Mineshaft out of a Private Account mare) that makes you think distance is no problem.

7. Conveyance. Hard to knock an unbeaten horse, and this Indian Charlie colt has been highly regarded from the start; he sold for $240,000 as a yearling and probably brought 10 times more than that when he was purchased privately by Zabeel Racing earlier this year.

8. Dublin. Hopeful winner at Saratoga last summer returned to good form in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, chasing Conveyance to the wire while making up a lot of ground in the final eighth of a mile. That suggests the D. Wayne Lukas-trained son of Afleet Alex will be that much tougher when the distances stretch out.

9. Buddy’s Saint. Son of Saint Liam went from big time to small time in no time with his ninth-place finish in Fountain of Youth. But considering all the trouble the Nashua and Remsen Stakes winner had around the first turn when he was bounced around after rushing up along the rail into a hole that didn’t exist, it’s easy to see how the colt may have gotten discouraged. It’s the kind of race you just draw a line through and hope it wasn’t a reflection of his true ability.

10. Caracortado. Just like with Conveyance, it’s tough to knock perfection. He’s had relatively soft competition until last out in the Robert Lewis, when son of Cat Dream got the perfect trip behind dueling leaders

 Back when magazines mattered, there used to be this thing called the “Sports Illustrated cover jinx.” I’m starting to worry that it might be replaced by the Ray Paulick “Paulick Derby Index jinx.”
 
When we launched the 2010 edition of the Derby Index two weeks ago, my top choice three months out from the Kentucky Derby was Rick Porter’s Winslow Homer, a son of Unbridled’s Song who was coming off a victory in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. I liked the way he made three separate moves in that race and yet still had enough to hold off the favored Jackson Bend, a sign of versatility and maturity. Days later, however, he was off the trail with an injury and off my list.

Last week, Tiz Chrome occupied my top spot, not so much for what he had accomplished in his brief career but for what I thought he would do in last Saturday’s Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. But the son of Tiznow trained by Bob Baffert showed little fight in the final quarter mile of his first race around two turns after jumping out to an early lead.

So I look ahead to this weekend’s Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes with great apprehension as I move Buddy’s Saint to the top of my Derby Index list, and hope he can break the jinx. Following is my newly minted Top 10 in the wake of Caracortado’s upset win in the Lewis and Rule’s dominating performance in the Sam Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.

1-Buddy’s Saint. Comes off a good, solid six-furlong drill on Sunday for trainer Bruce Levine in preparation for Saturday’s Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. His pedigree suggests stamina, and continued success by this Saint Liam colt would be a fitting tribute to the late Allen Paulson, who produced the dam of Buddy’s Saint, the Blushing John mare Tuzia, runner-up in the 10-furlong Personal Ensign Stakes. Paulson never won the Kentucky Derby—not that he didn’t want to, but his breeding program was based more on producing horses with stamina, and that characteristic often comes at the expense of precocity.

2-Lookin At Lucky. The reigning champion (by Smart Strike) is working solidly in anticipation of his 3-year-old debut, expected to be March 13 in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. Trainer Bob Baffert didn’t have the best of weekends when Tiz Chrome was beaten in the Robert Lewis Stakes and Oaklawn Park had to postpone the Southwest Stakes Monday—for which Conveyance had been shipped from California and entered to run—because of bad weather.

3-Rule. The quality of Triple Crown contenders prepping at Tampa Bay Downs has been on the upswing in recent years, so Rule’s impressive victory in Saturday’s Sam Davis is more meaningful in my eyes than it would have been just a few years ago. The son of Roman Ruler will get a much stiffer test next out—trainer Todd Pletcher said he wants to jump him into Grade 1 competition—but the encouraging thing about this most recent win was the way Rule relaxed on the lead.

4-American Lion. Sometimes a defeat is better than it looked, and that’s how I’m going to categorize American Lion’s third-place showing in Saturday’s Robert Lewis Stakes, his first route race around two turns. He bobbled coming out of the gate, used up some energy to challenge for the lead after that, battled favorite Tiz Chrome into submission in midstretch, but was unable to hold off Caracortado and the fast-finishing Dave in Dixie. The son of Tiznow got some experience in that race and will be a much better horse next time around for trainer Eoin Harty.

5- Dave In Dixie. If I had a dark horse candidate right now it would be this John Sadler-trained son of Dixie Union who came flying in the final furlong to finish second to Caracortado in the Robert Lewis Stakes. He closed a ton of ground in his previous start, the Norfolk, though not hitting the board that day, and will benefit from the tightener in the Lewis. Not every strong closer gets better with distance and he could be a sucker horse, but I’d give this colt another race or two to see if he figures out what this game is all about.

6-Super Saver. Member of the WinStar Farm Triple Crown juggernaut who is approaching his 2010 debut for Todd Pletcher. If nothing else, this Maria’s Mon colt demonstrated his affection for the Churchill racing strip when he won the Kentucky Jockey Stakes there last fall.

7-Jackson Bend. I’m just not convinced this son of the Carson City stallion Hear No Evil has the stamina required to win the Kentucky Derby over 10 furlongs. Has a lot of ability and is in the hands of a trainer, Nick Zito, who knows how to bring horses up to a big race.

8-Conveyance.  Presumably will remain at Oaklawn Park for the rescheduled running of the Southwest Stakes, which was cancelled on Monday because of bad weather and will be run this Saturday.

9-Caracortado. We went a long time between geldings winning the Kentucky Derby (Clyde Van Dusen in 1929 to Funny Cide in 2003), but now that there have been two in the last seven (Mine That Bird in 2009), would it be that unusual for a third? California-bred son of Cat Dreams has done nothing wrong in winning all five starts, beginning with a maiden claimer and most recently with his Robert Lewis Stakes victory. Trainer Mike Machowsky (also the breeder) is more than capable, but my caveat for this Cinderalla story is that Caracortado got an absolutely perfect trip under jockey Paul Atkinson, sitting just off the pace of dueling leaders.

10-Tiz Chrome. From first to 10th in a week, this son of Tiznow disappointed in his first try around two turns, but he didn’t get an easy lead, and it’s hard to win wire to wire on Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride track under those circumstances. I’m for second chances.