Posts Tagged ‘pari-mutuel handle’

By Ray Paulick
Betting on American Thoroughbred racing continued its downward slide in May, dropping 8.26%, from $1.5 million in 2008 to just under $1.4 billion in 2009. There were 31 fewer U.S. racing days this May compared with May 2008, a number that is expected to fall even farther as tracks like Hollywood Park and Churchill Downs reduce from five days a week to four.

Purses also fell again in May, dropping by 6.73%.

There were 10 weekend days plus the Memorial Day holiday in May of 2009, compared with nine weekend days and Memorial day in 2008. Handle is higher on weekends and holidays than on normal weekdays.

Year-to-date figures are down 9.22% in handle, and 5.54% in purses despite a less than 1% drop in total racing days. With more wagering dollars continuing to shift from on-track to off-track or account wagering, a smaller percentage of each dollar bet goes toward purses. Subsidies from casino wagering and slot machines at tracks (racinos) have kept purses from falling at the same rate as the decline in handle.

The U.S. racing industry is almost certain to suffer year-end wagering declines for the fifth time in the last six years. At the current rate of decline, year-end handle will be just under $12.5 billion, the lowest total since 1996. (Click here to see the historical trend.)

Statistics are from Equibase.

 

* Includes worldwide commingled wagering on U.S. races.

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

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By Ray Paulick

Figures released today by Equibase Company confirm what the Paulick Report has been saying for months, that pari-mutuel handle on Thoroughbred racing in the United States is at its lowest level since 1998. With a 20% plunge in December wagering, year-end handle in the U.S. totalled $13,670,196,938, down more than $1 billion from 2007, a 7.16% falloff. It is the fourth decline in total Thoroughbred pari-mutuel handle in the last six years in the U.S.

Purses fells by 1.33% for the year, from $1,175,924,289 in 2007 to $1,160,313,672 in 2008. The number of race days declined 1.18%, from 6,168 to 6,095.

Click here to see the Paulick Report’s extensive look at U.S. handle since 1996, including totals adjusted for inflation.

The decline in 2008 handle accelerated in the final three months of the year. A third-quarter report showed the drop to be 5.75% on the year, but the worldwide financial crisis that shook world markets in September compounded the problems the racing industry was already experiencing. Click here to see analysis of the third-quarter handle report.

Thoroughbred Racing Economic Indicators

By Ray Paulick

There are many ways to look at this year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships from a business and sporting standpoint, and not all examinations are going to lead to the same destination.

The most important question is whether or not the 2008 Breeders’ Cup was a success or failure. Was the decision to hold the Cup at a racetrack with a synthetic surface a wise move? Has the expansion of the world championships from eight races in one day to 14 races in two days helped or diluted the event?

How is success or failure of the Breeders’ Cup measured? Is it attendance, pari-mutuel handle, revenue, TV ratings, racing results, international participation?

It’s difficult to measure some of these factors because the circumstances of the Breeders’ Cup have changed so much between 2008 and previous years, rendering it an apples to oranges comparison. Making those comparisons even more challenging are the current economic conditions that have hit all levels of society this year, from Wall Street bankers to blue-collar workers. Virtually every industry is feeling a severe impact.

Putting that aside, last year’s Breeders’ Cup at Monmouth Park was the first time the event was stretched over two days, and handle totaled just over $147 million ($31.5 on the Friday program and $115.7 on Saturday) despite poor weather and messy track conditions (a near monsoon came through New Jersey during Friday’s program and the track was very sloppy on Saturday). This year’s two-day handle increased by only 5.5%, to $155.5 million  ($47.9 million on Friday, $107.6 million on Saturday), despite perfect weather and the addition of three new Breeders’ Cup races. Comparisons are for the whole cards, including non-Breeders’ Cup races run at Monmouth Park last year and Santa Anita this year.

Steve Crist’s weekend blog at DRF.com (Friday, Saturday), which detailed the race-by-race betting figures for the last three years of the Breeders’ Cup, shows that handle dropped sharply on the races moved from the Saturday card in 2007 to Friday (Filly & Mare Turf, Juvenile Fillies, Ladies’ Classic) this year. That makes perfect sense, since there were fewer people betting Friday’s program this year than there were betting Saturday’s program last year. But there were five Breeders’ Cup races on Friday this year, when the all of the filly and mare races were packaged as "Filly Friday" or "Ladies Day," compared with three in 2007, leading to the increase in Friday-to-Friday comparisons.

Handle dropped virtually across the board on Saturday’s races this year, with the day’s total handle declining by 7%, from $115.7 million in 2007 to $107.6 million in 2008. It was the lowest handle on a Saturday Breeders’ Cup since 1999, when $100.3 million was bet on the races from Gulfstream Park.

Santa Anita’s on-track handle of $11.8 million was down almost 10% from the $12.7 million wagered on-track at Monmouth Park in 2007 and a steep decline of 33% from the 2006 Saturday Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs, when $18.3 million was bet on-track during the one-day event.

Saturday’s on-track business was the lowest for a Breeders’ Cup since 1997, when $11.2 million was wagered at Hollywood Park. The last time the Breeders’ Cup was held at Santa Anita, in 2003, one-day on-track handle totaled $16.3 million. This year’s two-day on-track handle was $18.7 million.

The economic climate has not been good for racing in 2008. Most major race meetings have experienced double-digit declines in business. For the Breeders’ Cup to increase handle from 2007 is an accomplishment, though not a major one when considering both the additional races and superior weather conditions.

It is difficult to say there has not been a dilution of the event based on the early evidence. Do the positive benefits outweigh any negatives? I think it’s too early to tell.

Attendance was up this year from 2007, but that should have been a no-brainer following the poor weather at Monmouth Park. Breeders’ Cup officials got greedy with ticket prices and, to their credit, have admitted as much. The increase in prices was outrageous, especially for the Friday program, and it is hoped they will be scaled back considerably next year.

TV ratings have not yet been reported, but it’s hard to imagine they will be up from 2007.

The racing was spectacular on both days – and safe. More than a few people commented at the conclusion of the Breeders’ Cup that no one died or suffered any serious injuries, a sad commentary on the bumpy road the sport has been traveling in recent years. The Pro-Ride synthetic track was fast and safe, though it appeared to compromise some horses who had only raced on conventional dirt tracks and help those horses with synthetic track or turf experience. 

Synthetic surfaces have increased the difficulty of handicapping, and running the traditional Breeders’ Cup dirt races on the Pro-Ride track may have led some big players to downsize their bets. The Classic, according to Crist’s figures, handled $24.3 million in bets this year, down from $30.1 million at Monmouth Park last year and $37.7 million at Churchill Downs in 2006.

The dominance of European horses was widely embraced by Breeders’ Cup officials, including president Greg Avioli, who sees international participation as the last, best hope for further growth in pari-mutuel handle. The success of Raven’s Pass and four other European-based winners on Saturday’s program will ensure enthusiastic participation from European horsemen when the races return to Santa Anita in 2009, but there is no guarantee that’s going to mean greater interest among horseplayers outside of North America. There is a conceivable backlash among American breeders who provide the financial foundation of the Breeders’ Cup program through foal and stallion nominations. Some of them view this as an American event, and they would be happier if the considerable purse money stayed in this country. On the other hand, those breeders who want to reach an international audience with their sale yearlings may cheer the success of European-based runners.

The Breeders’ Cup will conduct a post-mortem on the event to determine what worked and what didn’t.  Many have said the Oak Tree Racing Association and Santa Anita did a terrific job from a logistical standpoint, and there may not be a more telegenic racing facility in America in late October than the "Great Race Place." There were many people critical of the decision to hold the event at Santa Anita in consecutive years, but those critics surely are fewer in number following this year’s Breeders’ Cup

Provided that no major changes are made in the format, holding the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita next year will be more of an apples to apples comparison, allowing Cup officials to assess whether or not the expansion from one day to two was a sound decision.

 

 

 

We’re hearing a lot recently about what a good thing it is to be a maverick. Jackson seemed worthy of that title as a supporter, ironically, of tradition; and restoring the BC’s more appropriate role in championship racing. By running in the Turf instead of the Classic, Curlin’s master would not only maintain his personal credibility, but would also assume a leadership role in righting racing’s course.

Finishing second in his lone turf start — sandwiched between two previous BC Turf winners — Curlin’s defeat in the Man o’ War appeared to be more a function of riders than horses. Curlin could redeem himself against the returning Red Rocks and add to his Horse of the Year resume in the process. The best part would be that Curlin’s fans would be able to bet him with the confidence they would be getting a competitive as well as sporting effort from both horse and owner.

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The following press release from the National Thoroughbred Racing Association is not good news, though not entirely unexpected. Handle in the third quarter (July-September) fell by almost 10%. The decline is not surprising, but it virtually confirms something I wrote the other  day saying that U.S. handle for 2008 will be at its lowest level since 1999. Don’t look for any bright spots in the fourth quarter in light of the current economic crisis. – Ray Paulick

 

The National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) and Equibase Company LLC today released the “Thoroughbred Racing Economic Indicators“ for United States and Canadian pari-mutuel wagering on U.S. Thoroughbred racing during the third quarter of 2008, as well as for U.S. purses and race days, with prior-year, third-quarter comparisons.