Posts Tagged ‘musket man’

I’ve always been surprised at the habits of many buyers at yearling sales…they sometimes remind me of lemmings marching to the sea, making decisions without logic or rationality. I once asked a leading buyer why he often spent so much money on yearlings by unproven first-year sires, a practice that is common enough to inflate the yearling average for those new sires. His response was simple: “They haven’t failed yet.”

That philosophy makes no sense to me, for it would seem far more pragmatic to look for undervalued proven stallions than to roll the dice on a group of newcomers whose chance of succeeding are somewhere between 5-10%.

Another unexplainable practice of yearling buyers is their disdain of foals born in the month of May. On average, it would make sense that May foals would be smaller than their January-April counterparts, so perhaps buyers at summer or fall yearling sales are simply unable to project how that smaller horse might look as a 2- or 3-year-old.

Some years ago, statistics accompanying an article I wrote for Bloodhorse’s MarketWatch newsletter, showed that May foals were only marginally behind earlier season foals in performance standards (stakes wins, money won), but their average yearling prices were much, much lower. Where I come from, that makes May foals a bargain.

Rob Whiteley, who operates the successful Liberation Farm breeding operation, came to the same conclusion in an article he wrote this week for the Thoroughbred Daily News. From the winning Kentucky Derby exacta of May foals Mine That Bird and Pioneerof the Nile to a review of May foals that have won Breeders’ Cup races, Whiteley makes a compelling argument that buyers should pay far more attention to May foals than they traditionally have. We’d like to thank Sue Finley of TDN for granting reprint rights of Whiteley’s article. – Ray Paulick

By Rob Whiteley
As a populist horseman, it makes me smile when a relatively obscure horse comes out of the hinterlands and beats up on a bunch of fashionably bred horses who are sired by generally over-priced, over-hyped, and over-bred stallions. And it turns my smile into a broad grin to observe that Mine That Bird is a mid-May foal.

To be fair, the valiant runner-up, Pioneerof the Nile, is regally bred and fully deserving of his cost of production. His bloodlines and hefty stud fee came through in a brave display of talent and determination, and those who played him unsuccessfully in the exotics only have themselves to blame for not taking home a big piece of the track. Like the item we look past in the front of the refrigerator, it was right there to see. Pioneerof the Nile is also a May foal, and if you had played a May foal exacta, you would have received $2,074.80 for a $2 exacta box.

(Ed. Note: A $2 exacta box with all of the May foals in the Derby would’ve cost $40. Atomic Rain (Smart Strike), Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor) and third-place finisher Musket Man (Yonaguska) are all May foals as well. A $1 triple box on the quintet would’ve set you back just $60, and returned $20,750.30)

In light of the continuous racing success achieved by May foals year after year, I am at a loss to rationally understand how that success fails to translate into the sales scene where May foals, as a group, bring approximately 35 percent less than their counterparts. For some in-grained reason, rooted in hearsay and perpetuated by the typical word of mouth momentum that spreads other horse industry falsehoods and myths, May foals get a bad rap at the sales, and are often discounted accordingly in the ring. This is such nonsense. The stigma on May foals that floats around on the winds of ignorance has no basis in fact.

It can even be persuasively argued that May foals actually have a slight advantage over other foals, as May foals are born according to a horse’s innate and natural spring-time predispositions, and with the most favorable environmental conditions.

Savvy buyers who keep up with the details of racing know that May foals, as a group, race as successfully as foals born in other months, and better than foals born in January. And the sharpest horsemen and pinhookers know that a few days or even weeks generally make little difference in a horse’s early development.

The most important factors in a horse’s ability to perform early involve genetically based precocity, balance, athleticism, and mental maturity, not date of birth. Each horse has its own genetically wound clock, and horses have wide-ranging differences in the rate that they develop, no matter which month they might be born in. Like foals born in January or February or any month, some May foals may be forward enough to zip along at two-year-old sales, while others may not be mature enough to race effectively until the middle of their three-year-old years, or later. Horses, like humans and other mammals, follow their own genetic blueprint.

When it is their time to perform, however, May foals truly hold their own, even as two-year-olds.

Except for the month of January, the fewest number of foals are born in May, yet they account for 10 percent of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile colt and filly champions. Furthermore, as May foals mature, their success rate in certain top level venues can be jaw-dropping. May foals have won a stunning 50 percent of the last 10 Breeders’ Cup Distaffs (including, Azeri, Round Pond, Spain, and Escena). And May foals have won over 25 percent of all Breeders’ Cup Mile races.

Despite the impressive frequency with which May foals find the winner’s circle in big races, however, a May foal may not win the Preakness this year. Instead, a magnificent January foal named Rachel Alexandra may be brilliant enough to outrun the boys, no matter when they were born (if she can adjust to a new groom, a new trainer, and new routines). But the Belmont, please take note, is entirely a different matter because of the extraordinary potency of the May foal factor.

The May foal factor is the strongest available predictor of Belmont success–far stronger than the most sophisticated figs or Beyer numbers–because May foals, incredibly, have won nearly 40 percent of the last 15 runnings of the Belmont (including, Afleet Alex, Lemon Drop Kid, Thunder Gulch, Touch Gold, Victory Gallop, and Mine That Bird’s own daddy, Birdstone). Therefore, given the historical dominance by May foals in this mile-and-a-half event, and given the Bird’s paternal family connection and the probable presence of steadfast Pioneerof the Nile, we could even be looking at the same May foal quinella we witnessed in the Derby. In any event, it is time we give May foals the respect they deserve, at the sales and on the track.

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It has been almost two weeks since Mine That Bird and jockey Calvin Borel shocked the sports world with their improbable long shot victory in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. And as with any Derby aftermath, the question lingers in the air; will this be the year we end the Triple Crown drought? If our voters are any indication, the answer is an emphatic no as Mine That Bird is ranked in fourth place among the 14 horses prospective Preakness starters.

Furthermore, Calvin Borel’s decision to forego the Derby hero to ride the amazing Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness, an unprecedented move in the 135 years of the Kentucky Derby, goes even more to the point that this may not be the year racing celebrates its 12th Triple Crown champion. Instead, the consensus of our 23 voters, including the fans, was overwhelmingly in favor of Rachel Alexandra to run away with this much anticipated race. Will this hold true? Will trainer Bob Baffert spoil the Oaks/Derby story line with Pioneerof the Nile? Or perhaps we will see another unlikely outcome with a different long shot coming out of nowhere to take the prize. Only Saturday will tell.

Ray Paulick’s Preakness Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. Sure, he looked like he was running in slow motion in the Kentucky Derby compared to Mine That Bird when he rocketed up the rail to victory, but I think the condition of the racetrack had a lot to do with the outcome of the race. Pioneerof the Nile was well off the rail on what I think was the slower part of the track all the way and closer to the pace than expected. I liked the son of Empire Maker going into the Derby, and I think he dispelled concerns that he was a horse that could only run on synthetic tracks. His workout on Monday morning that prompted trainer Bob Baffert to give Pioneerof the Nile the green light to go to Pimlico indicates he came out of the Derby in very good shape.

2- Papa Clem. Smart Strike colt wanted to run more in the early going of the Kentucky Derby while jockey Rafael Bejarano was trying to get him to settle off the pace, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a change of tactics for the Preakness. Gary Stute-trained colt has shown versatility in the past, going to the front and setting moderate fractions to win or coming from midpack, as he did in taking the Arkansas Derby. Preakness field won’t be without pace, with Big Drama and Take the Points expected to show early speed. I’d look for Papa Clem to be just behind the early leaders.

3-Rachel Alexandra. The only knock on the filly is that she hasn’t really faced top-class competition yet. The Kentucky Oaks was her first Grade 1 race, and the field was pretty weak by Oaks standards. Nevertheless, what she did, running away from her beleaguered rivals to win by 20 π lengths, with her jockey sitting like a statue (except for the occasional glance back), was remarkable. This is a huge step up, and I’m not convinced that she’s up to the task.

4-Friesan Fire. Big disappointment in the Kentucky Derby after being sent off as the betting favorite on a sloppy racetrack that everyone thought he would like, following his eye-catching Louisiana Derby win in the slop at Fair Ground. Got bumped around pretty good at the start and came back with some minor cuts and scrapes. A.P. Indy colt has bounced back quickly for trainer Larry Jones and his Tuesday morning workout at Pimlico (five furlongs in :58.40) was very sharp.

5-Mine That Bird. Can’t take the Kentucky Derby victory away from him, no matter how strange the track might have played or how all the so-called “experts” (myself included) dismissed his chances going into the race. He was champion 2-year-old in Canada last year, and it’s clear that in his two losses in New Mexico he didn’t get the right kind of trip. Whether he was pushed to the lead early by Casey Lambert or moved on his own, he came up empty in the stretch of both the Borderland and Sunland Derbies. I think the track and especially a rail bias played in his favor for the Kentucky Derby, but Calvin Borel deserves a great deal of credit for saving Mine That Bird for one big run from far back. I don’t see a repeat performance in the Preakness.

6-Musket Man. Finished with determination in the Kentucky Derby after suffering some early problems, closing to get third while on the far outside, the deepest or stickiest part of the racetrack that day. Never worse than third in seven lifetime starts.

7-Take the Points. Skipped the Kentucky Derby to point for the Preakness, so trainer Todd Pletcher has a very fresh horse going into the race. May not have liked the synthetic surfaces or maybe he just wasn’t sharp  enough to win either of his two California starts. I wouldn’t be surprised to see big improvement.

8-Big Drama. Almost certain to set the pace in the Preakness, and though the Montbrook colt has stretched his speed out to 1 1/16 miles before, he hasn’t done it against this level of competition.

9-General Quarters. Didn’t really like his chances in the Kentucky Derby and I don’t think he’s moved up with his training since finishing 10th at Churchill Downs.

10-Terrain. On a five-race losing streak since being moved up from third to first in the Arlington-Washington Futurity last September. Would take a major form reversal to threaten here.

In a week that should have shown little movement in the rankings of the Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment, the Paulick Derby Index has actually shown some fluctuation as co-favorite Quality Road was withdrawn from the race on Monday because of complications resulting from a quarter crack. I Want Revenge, clearly now the favorite among our ballot stuffers, will lead a top ten that has lost some star power with several favorites not making the trip due to injury. That being said, this is still as strong a group as we have seen in years. The Derby this year should be an exciting one to watch with anywhere from 5-10 horses in legitimate contention.
 
You will also notice that the final week’s Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment features only the top ten contenders. We did this to put an onus on the top echelon of the field and make our last list more exclusive.

Finally, due to the fact that all ballots are submitted by 9 PM EST Monday night and well before Square Eddie’s withdrawal, you will see him on several ballots.
 
Will the PDI be the great predictor it portends to be on Saturday? Only time will tell.

1-Pioneerof the Nile. The Kentucky Derby is a tough race to win, even if everything goes your way, and it’s almost impossible for a horse to win if his training has been interrupted. Witness Unbridled’s Song, who battled foot problems coming up to the 1996 Derby, where he might have been the best horse but finished fifth while racing with a bar shoe on the problematic foot. If Quality Road’s connections felt their horse was sound and sent him to Louisville, I would have bet against him, simply because of the interruption in training. Everything has gone perfectly for Pioneerof the Nile: no interruptions in training due to bad weather or nagging injuries, and he is coming up to this race in the best form of his career. The Empire Maker colt has done everything asked of him, and I doubt trainer Bob Baffert would trade places with anybody.

2-I Want Revenge. It’s the horse, stupid. I’m no fan of trainer Jeff Mullins or the IEAH partners that bought into this son of Stephen Got Even, but I do like I Want Revenge. How can you not like a horse that does what he did to win the Wood Memorial after a disastrous start? The race before that, the Gotham Stakes, he showed enough early speed to press the pace and draw off in the stretch to a an easy victory. He is 0-for-2 against Pioneerof the Nile, though his first loss, by a nose in the Cash Call Futurity, was in his first start after breaking his maiden. I think he’ll be the betting favorite, but if Pioneerof the Nile beats I Want Revenge, people will be scratching their heads and wondering why.

3-Dunkirk. Todd Pletcher has kept the son of Unbridled’s Song under the radar, staying in Florida to train while the rest of the field is in Kentucky, and I don’t fault his logic that the track on Derby Day will likely be different from the surface everyone trained on in the weeks leading up to the race. Always seems to be that way. The colt has enormous talent, but there remains that issue of a lack of experience that has stopped many previous Derby contenders with a similar profile.

4-Friesan Fire.  One thing we know: if it rains as expected, and the track is sloppy, Friesan Fire will be one happy horse. The A.P. Indy colt seemed to relish the sloppy Fair Grounds surface while winning the Louisiana Derby in a cakewalk. His training up to the race for Larry Jones has been sensational, and the only thing his resume lacks is a victory over tough competition.

5-Musket Man. Beating Giant Oak in the Illinois Derby was no great accomplishment (doesn’t somebody always beat Giant Oak?), but it’s hard to fault a horse with five wins in six starts. Yonaguska colt seems like the grinder type—not much early speed or quick mid-race acceleration—but if he gets a good enough trip under Eibar Coa I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in the top flight at the eighth pole.

6-Papa Clem. Won the Arkansas Derby coming from off the pace, but Smart Strike colt has enough speed to be close up in the early going and maybe even make the lead if no one else wants it. Gary Stute learned from his father, Mel, the West Coast wizard of speed, so a late-week blowout of two or three furlongs might be used to sharpen up Papa Clem after a series of longer works.

7-Chocolate Candy. Has only one way of going, settle in near the back of the field and make a late run, so you know that racing luck will play a role for Candy Ride colt. Hollendorfer has won the Kentucky Oaks twice (Lite Light in 1991 and Pike Place Dancer in1996), proving he can win at the top level of the game while being based in California’s “B  Circuit” in the Bay Area. Training well, but has to have everything go his way for a victory.

8-Advice. Wise guys are asking how a horse that couldn’t win the Sunland Park Derby is going to win the Kentucky Derby.  Real Quiet, who came within a nose of winning the 1998 Triple Crown, couldn’t win in New Mexico, either, finishing third there as a 2-year-old in a pair of races. Advice demonstrated some quality last year, finishing second but DQed and placed third in the Arlington-Washington Futurity, and his last to first rally in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes was eye-catching. But races were on Polytrack, however, and he has yet to prove himself on a conventional dirt track (though the same can be said of Pioneerof the Nile).

9-Desert Party. I like the way the son of Street Cry has trained since arriving from Dubai, but I’ve seen previous Godolphin horses looking sharp in the morning before fading on Derby afternoon. If this one is any different, he’ll win without my backing at the windows.

10-Mr. Hot Stuff. Have always thought this Tiznow colt was going to develop into a good one, but it’s taken longer than expected. He’ll be running late in the Derby, but I think he looks more like a Travers winner.

Last weekend was the final opportunity for Derby hopefuls to make their case. As a result, this week’s Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment had two new entries with Square Eddie in a tie for 15th and Advice all alone in the 18th spot. The only other newbie on our list was a vote for Arkansas Derby 3rd place finisher Summer Bird.

Also significant was the tightening between the first and second place contenders I Want Revenge and Quality Road. This narrowing margin is due to Quality Road’s quarter crack not being as concerning as once believed.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. This was written before his first serious workout on the Churchill Downs surface, but I’m sticking with the Empire Maker colt unless and until he shows a complete disdain for dirt in his training up to the Kentucky Derby. Keeping Garrett Gomez in the saddle is a confidence booster because agent Ron Anderson is as sharp as they come.

2-I Want Revenge. Biggest question about Stephen Got Even colt’s two New York wins was who he beat. Not sure there was much quality behind him, but he was right there with Pioneerof the Nile in California and showed he likes the dirt. Versatile running style really a plus and jockey Joe Talamo is wise beyond his years.

3- Quality Road. Mystery horse as far as I’m concerned, because of the quarter crack. But based on that last New York workout and the fact the son of Elusive Quality apparently came out of it in good shape I’ve moved him up a notch over Dunkirk. Will he get the distance?

4-Dunkirk. Could there be a better backup rider to Garrett Gomez than Edgar Prado? No loss there in riding talent. Choice by Gomez and agent Anderson was a tough one, considering they were dealing with two high-powered trainers in Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher and two of the most prominent owners in the game in Ahmed Zayat and the Coolmore operation. Call me old school, but I think the lack of racing experience will go against both Quality Road and Dunkirk.

5-Friesan Fire. Larry Jones seems to have had a pretty well-defined plan for son of A.P. Indy and he’s sticking to it. Another one racing against history with his lengthy gap between races. Working solidly at Keeneland before shipping to Churchill Downs for final preparations.

6-Musket Man. Tampa Bay and Illinois Derby winner got vote of confidence from jockey Eibar Coa, but he’ll be facing a completely different caliber of horse when the Churchill Downs starting gates open.

7-Papa Clem. Smart Strike seems to keep siring one top runner after another, and Papa Clem is moving in the right direction as the first Saturday in May approaches. Gary Stute may be a Kentucky Derby rookie, but he’s no greenhorn, having gotten some big race experience when father Mel had Preakness winner Snow Chief and other top runners during a stellar training career.

8-Chocolate Candy. Interesting that a Santa Anita publicity staff survey of West Coast horsemen found a lot of support for this Candy Ride colt trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. Will have a lot of horses to come around at the top of the stretch when he makes his late run.

9-Advice. So what if his Coolmore Lexington win was on a Polytrack surface that has produced so many unpredictable results? He’s an improving colt in good hands who closed like gangbusters to beat a Polytrack-loving Square Eddie.

10-Desert Party. How he trains over the next 10 days will have a lot to say about his chances. It’s a very difficult transition to make, coming from Dubai to Kentucky, and will take a top horse to handle it. I just don’t think he’ll be up to the challenge.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. Empire Maker colt is scheduled to work at Santa Anita Wednesday for trainer Bob Baffert before shipping to Churchill Downs. Doesn’t get much respect for a horse coming into the Kentucky Derby off four consecutive graded stakes victories, but such is the influence of speed figures these days. I think speed figures are less relevant in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby than they are for everyday races because of the unique nature of the Derby.

2-I Want Revenge. Already stabled at Churchill Downs, which gives Stephen Got Even colt plenty of time to acclimate to the racing strip. One caveat: the track horses train over before the live meet begins is often dramatically different than the one they’ll have on Derby Day.

3- Dunkirk. Though I have nagging doubts in the back of my mind about why this son of Unbridled’s Song has been raced so sparingly, I’m confident he may be the best qualified of the Derby contenders to get distances of a mile and a quarter and beyond. How he trains over the next couple weeks will be key.

4-Quality Road. So far, so good on the patched up quarter crack. Unlike some owners and trainers who have run horses in the Derby that were physically compromised, I have confidence that neither Elusive Quality colt’s owner, Ned Evans, or trainer, Jimmy Jerkens, would do that. With the loss of speed horses The Pamplemousse and Old Fashioned, the pace scenario is shaping up in Quality Road’s favor.

5-Friesan Fire. The book on preparing a horse for the Kentucky Derby is being constantly rewritten, so I’m not discounting the A.P. Indy colt’s chances because of the seven weeks trainer Larry Jones is giving him between starts.  And while Louisiana Derby runner-up Papa Clem’s win in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby flattered Friesan Fire, I still don’t think he’s faced the toughest competition this winter.

6-Musket Man. Speaking of flattery, the win by General Quarters in the Toyota Blue Grass strengthened Musket Man’s Tampa Bay Derby triumph. There’s a lot to like about this son of Yonaguska, but the biggest question concerns his pedigree, specifically his propensity to get a classic distance.

7 Papa Clem. Good move by trainer Gary Stute to ship this Smart Strike colt to Oaklawn Park early to train up to the Arkansas Derby. Along with the two victories in New York by I Want Revenge, the win by Papa Clem shows the depth of this year’s California contingent, as both chased Pioneerof the Nile in earlier races.

8-General Quarters. I confess that I missed the trouble the Sky Mesa colt encountered when fifth in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I went back and watched the race again after hearing about it during Steve Byk’s “At the Races” radio show on Monday. Sure enough, he got the worst in that race and ran back to the strong form he showed in the Sam F. Davis while surprising Saturday’s Toyota Blue Grass Field. I don’t think that win was a fluke, but the Blue Grass field was a relatively unproven one.

9-Chocolate Candy. Was hurt more than anyone else by the lack of pace in the Santa Anita Derby, yet still closed strongly to be second to Pioneerof the Nile. Son of Candy Ride will need quick fractions to have a shot in the Kentucky Derby, and at this stage I’m not so sure he’ll get them.

10-Desert Party. It’s asking a lot of the Street Cry colt to ship halfway around the world twice in a six-month period. How he trains over the Churchill Downs surface over the next two and half weeks and how he looks will gives us a better idea of his chances to give Sheikh Mohammed his first win in the Kentucky Derby.

By Ray Paulick

Zayat Stables’ Pioneerof the Nile made an early run for the lead down the backstretch of the Santa Anita Derby, took over from frontrunner Feisty Suances at the top of the stretch, then held off Chocolate Candy by a length to give trainer Bob Baffert his fifth victory in the West Coast’s leading prep for the Kentucky Derby.

Jockey Garrett Gomez said the son of Empire Maker clipped heels of Take the Points going into the first turn, then pulled him to the lead when no pace developed in the race entering the backstretch. "They started to slow down on me too much," Gomez said immediately after the race to NBC reporter Donna Brothers. "It’s just a slower pace isn’t too comfortable for him." 

Baffert had hoped for more early speed in the race, giving PIoneerof the Nile more of a target to run at, but with the scratch of The Pamplemousse on Saturday morning, the Santa Anita Derby came up with very slow fractions. "Good horses adapt to any situation," Baffert told NBC’s Mike Battaglia. "He’ll have plenty to run at in the Kentucky Derby."

Final time for 1 1/8 miles on the synthetic Pro-Ride surface was 149.17 after fractions of :24.04, :48.65, 1:12.32 and 1:36.67. Mr. Hot Stuff finished third, with Take the Points fourth and the front-running Feisty Suances fifth.

This was the fourth consecutive graded stakes victory for Pioneerof the Nile since joining Baffert’s barn late last year. He began his career in New York for trainer Bill Mott, winning one of two starts on turf and then finishing third in the Breeders’ Futurity on Polytrack at Keeneland and fifth behind Baffert-trained Midshipman in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita.

Chart of the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby.

I Want Revenge overcame a rough trip to win the $750,000 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, breaking in the air and spotting the field several lengths, then facing a wall of horses at the top of the stretch before bursting through a narrow seam to win going away by 1 1/2 lengths over West Side Bernie, with Just a Coincidence third and Atomic Rain fourth in New York’s major prep for the Kentucky Derby.

Ridden by Joe Talamo, the son of Stephen Got Even was winning for the third time in eight starts. This was his second consecutive stakes victory following his 8 1/2-length romp going 1 1/16 miles in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. All of his other races have been on synthetic tracks in California, including a narrow loss to Pioneerof the Nile in the CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park in December and a third to that foe in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park in February.

I Want Revenge covered the 1 1/8 miles on a fast track in 1:49.49 after Lord Justice set fractions of :24.50, :48.13, 1:12.32 and 1:37.33. He was the 1-2 favorite.

This was the first race for I Want Revenge carrying the colors of IEAH Stable, which bought a half interest in the colt from breeder David Lanzman following the Gotham. It is believed the deal included an acceleration clause or bonus for Lanzman if I Want Revenge were to win the Wood. There is believed to be a similar clause for a Kentucky Derby victory. As part of the deal, Lanzman got a 25% interest in Stardom Bound, last year’s champion 2-year-old filly who was upset Saturday afternoon by 24-1 longshot Hooh Why in Keeneland’s Ashland Stakes.

I Want Revenge is trained by Jeff Mullins. Wood Memorial chart.

Here are the notes from the NYRA press office.

Following is the press release from Santa Anita Park on the late scratch of morning line favorite The Pamplemousse:

By Ray Paulick
With four big Kentucky Derby preps on the card today, I just had to get off the couch and go where the horses are and do a real live blog of those races. The big question was where: Tampa Bay Downs to see if General Quarters is for real; Fair Grounds, where Rick Dutrow will try to work his magic on Patena and pull the upset of Friesan Fire; Santa Anita Park, where my No. 1 horse on the Paulick Derby Index, Pioneerof the Nile, should dominate his foes in the San Felipe; or Oaklawn Park, where Old Fashioned looks like a cinch to win the Rebel Stakes?

I chose Oaklawn Park, in part because I haven’t  been to the Hot Springs racetrack since Arkansas Derby day in 1998, when Victory Gallop upset Favorite Trick. Oaklawn Park is also within relaxing driving distance of Lexington. But the real reason is that I got to thinking about how good the corned beef sandwiches are that are served in the Arkansas Sports Tavern inside the Oaklawn grandstand.

So you can imagine my disappointment when — after getting stuck in traffic on Central Avenue on the way to the track (when’s the last time that happened?) and having to park in a homeowner’s front lawn for $15 because the paid lots were full —  the lines were 50 deep for that corned beef sandwich.

I’m sure traffic, parking and food lines would have been easier at Fair Grounds or Santa Anita (I’ll bet Tampa Bay’s doing big business though), but I’ll take a racetrack full of people anytime.

Check back for more on my day at the Oaklawn races, as well as the fastest reports on the web on the San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby, Louisiana Derby and Rebel Stakes.
 
5:08 p.m. (Eastern) … Pioneerof the Nile wins the San Felipe after a hard drive through the stretch, holding off Feisty Suances by a length and a quarter and not looking like the top pick on my personal Derby list. It wasn’t pretty, but a win’s a win, and there’s a chance that trainer Bob Baffert didn’t want this lemon to be squeezed too tight for a mid-March prep. ("I don’t use that phrase," said Baffert, who said later that Pioneerof the Nile got to waiting on horses after getting in front and prefers a faster face. "We don’t wear our good shoes until Sunday.")  Jeranimo is third and He’s Really Big fourth in a race where the fans made Pioneerof the Nile the 3-10 favorite.

Joe Talamo sent New Bay to the front, tracked by Feisty Suances and Jeranimo in the early going, with Pioneerof the Nile allowed to settle into fifth by Garrett Gomez. Fractions were slow…23:96 for the opening quarter, :48.60 for the half and 1:12.82 for six furlongs. Pioneerof the Nile commenced his rally on the turn, but it wasn’t a walk in the park for the son of Empire Maker, who had to be asked pretty severely down the stretch. Final time on the Pro-Ride synthetic surface was 1:43.35 for the 1 1/16 miles, after a mile clocking of 1:37.09.

It was not a visually impressive race by the winner, who paid $2.60 in what was his third conecutive win. He’s not a horse that wins by open lengths, however,  his Robert B. Lewis margin of victory a half length and his Cash Call Hollywood Futurity victory just a nose.  Pioneerof the Nile now has four wins in seven lifetime starts.

The runner-up, trained by Darrell Vienna, was coming off a fourth-place finish behind Chocolate Candy in the California Derby at Golden Gate Fields Jan. 17.

San Felipe chart.

5:30 p.m. … Oaklawn owner Charles Cella (pictured on Rebel day, left) made a sweep through the press box to shake a few hands and say hello to the out-of-towners, primarily me and Joe Drape of the New York Times. Good old Southern hospitality never hurts. He recognizes my necktie, a souvenir from 1998 Arkansas Derby.

5:37 p.m. … Musket Man gets up in the final strides to win the Tampa Bay Derby by about a head over Join in the Dance. Justdontcallmejeri was third, with Nowhere to Hide Fourth. It was an eventful trip for the winner, who was fourth early as Perfect Bull and Join in the Dance carved out the early fractions. Approaching the far turn, Tampa Bay’s leading rider, Daniel Centeno, shifted Musket Man off the rail and was forced to check, then was shuffled back to eighth or ninth. The Yonaguska colt fought through horses around the turn and put in a strong rally to just get up for the win. He paid $13.80 for his fourth career win in five starts and first in a graded stakes. Musket Man, coming off a third to General Quarters in the Sam F. Davis, was not an early nominee to the Triple Crown.

Derek Ryan trains Musket Man for Eric Fein and Vic Carlson. Big disappointments in the race were Barclay Tagg-trained Hello Broadway, who was made the 2-1 but finished seventh after a wide trip, and General Quarters, the San F. Davis winner who was fifth as the second choice.

Tampa Bay Derby chart.

5:52 p.m. … Whoa! That was one impressive victory by Friesan Fire in the Louisiana Derby. The son of A.P. Indy got a confident ride from Gabriel Saez, coming from just off the pace to blow away the field by 7  1/4 lengths. Saez was doing more celebrating than riding in the final sixteenth, or the margin might have been even bigger. Of course, on sloppy racetracks, the conditions on which the Fair Grounds races were staged, you are more likely to see a horse draw off to a big winning margin. Nonetheless, that was a huge race. Final time was 1:43.46, with fractions of :24.12, :48.75, and 1:13.34 for the first six furlongs.

Papa Clem won the race for second, with early leader Terrain third and Giant Oak making a late run to pass tiring horses to get up for fourth. Patena, after making a four-wide rally on the turn, tired in the stretch and beat just one horse as the 4-1 second betting choice behind Friesan Fire, who paid $6.40 for the win.

Friesan Fire swept the three big races for 3-year-olds at Fair Grounds, the LeComte, Risen Star and Louisiana Derby, after being stakes placed twice at two. Cindy Jones, wife of trainer Larry Jones, filled in for her husband in saddling the horse who races for Vinery Stables and the Fox Hill Farms of Rick Porter, who also decided to go to Oaklawn and watch Old Fashioned in the Rebel. Of course, she did more than saddle the horse; she’s a big part of an operation that has been extremely successful the last three years. Larry Jones is at Oaklawn to put the tack on unbeaten Old Fahioned in the Rebel Stakes.

Louisiana Derby chart.

7:05 p.m. … Had to get out of the press box for a while, check out the lines for the corned beef sandwiches, take a walk through the packed grandstand, and get a closer look at the horses in today’s Rebel Stakes. Old Fashioned, the 1-5 favorite, looked a picture of composure in the infield saddling area. I’m not sure how composed the bridge jumpers are who pounded the show pools ($480,000 or so of the $550,000).

7:12 p.m. … Well, that’s why they run the race. Old Fashioned just got pipped by a 56-1 outsider named Win Willy. The roar of the crowd at the top of the stretch disappeared as Win Willy roared to the lead nearing the finish of the 1 1/16-mile Rebel to win by 2 1/4 lengths for Jer-Mar Stables and trainer McLean Robertson. Old Fashioned finished second, with Poltergeist third and Captain Cherokee fourth.

The winning mutuel was $115.60. But the bridge jumpers got their ten cents on the dollar, with Old Fashioned paying $2.60 to place and $2.20 to show.

Was Old Fashioned suckered into chasing too fast a pace in the race? Silver City set off on fast fractions: 22.54 for the quarter, :46.07 for the half and 1:11.67 for six furlongs. Ramon Dominguez moved Old Fashioned to the lead midway around the far turn, and applied several left-handed strokes when the field turned for home and the gray son of Unbridled’s Song appearing to be in clear control.

But Win Willy, who was last early, came flying down the stretch under Cliff Berry to complete the 1 1/16 miles on a good track (still wet from overnight rains) in 1:44.41 (after a mile split of 1:38.09). Old Fashioned held second by eight lengths. Silver City, who was a stubborn second to Old Fashioned in the Southwest Stakes, paid the price for his fast early fractions, finishing a well beaten eighth in the field of nine.

The winner, a son of Monarchos  bred by Overbrook Farm, was a $25,000 Keeneland September purchase. He won his career debut at Canterbury in Minnesota last August, then finished sixth on the turf at Remington Park in October. He took a liking to the Oaklawn Park surface, winning an optional claimer Feb. 22 going six furlongs, Earlier this meet it looked like he was no more than the second-best 3-year-old in Robertson’s barn behind a Salt Lake colt named Hamazing Destiny, who won his career debut at Oaklawn by 10 1/2 lengths. But when some clients of trainer D. Wayne Lukas wanted a potential Derby horse, they made a bid that Robertson’s clients couldn’t turn down, and Hamazing Destiny was led over to the Lukas barn. Robertson, who said after the Rebel the price for Hamazing Destiny was $1.5 million,had the last laugh on that deal, at least for now.

Rick Porter (pictured, left, with jockey Ramon Dominguez before the Rebel), who owns Old Fashioned and co-owns Friesan Fire, was a little on the nervous side before the Rebel. "Friesan Fire took a little of the pressure off," he said, while admitting that the pressure of having two viable contenders sure beats having a barn of slowpokes. Porter has to be disappointed that  Old Fashioned lost, but it’s hard to chase sprint fractions and stick around for a mile and sixteenth. On the other hand, maybe it’s the only way this horse can go, and the way things look right now, the Kentucky Derby field is going to be packed with early speed.

Quotes from winning trainer Mac Robertson: "After he won his last race I thought the distance would be okay. This race came at the right time frame. I was fairly impressed by his last race, and he did act that the distance would be no problem. This was a home run for us and the horse. If he comes out of this race well, we will keep him here and run in the Arkansas Derby."

Larry Jones, trainer of Old Fashioned, said: "It is hard to say what happened, the track was heavy, and with those kind of fractions it was found to catch up with him. He ran well, and we are proud of what he did."

D. Wayne Lukas said to Robertson: "You sold us the wrong horse! What about that horse that won today?"

Ramon Dominguez said about Old Fashioned: "The drying-out track and those fractions really hurt my colt’s chances. He really felt good under me during the early running, and then I felt him start to tire, when I asked him in the early stretch. Afterwards he galloped out well. Don’t count him out. He still has something to learn."

8:30 p.m. … Of the four Derby preps today, the obvious standout was the Louisiana Derby, where Friesan Fire absolutely toyed with what was a pretty good field of horses. He’ll move up on a lof of Derby lists, and Pioneerof the Nile and Old Fashioned are mostly likely going to lose some support. It’s hard to knock a horse who wins, but Pioneerof the Nile was really under pressure to beat a field that he really should have handled much easier. Add that to the question about whether or not he is going to make a successful transition to dirt, and I can’t see his stock doing anything but falling a couple of notches. But he’ll have a chance to run again before the first Saturday in May and prove me wrong.

Old Fashioned ran what I think was a better than looked race. Funny things can happen in a horse race — especially one where the fractions are so fast — but Terry Wallace, who’s called the races at Oaklawn for 35 years, said he hasn’t seen a more shocking Rebel upset since a maiden, Riverside Sam, beat eventual Preakness winner Elocutionist in 1976. "Sometimes when you call a race you say to yourself, ‘I can’t believe what I’m seeing,’ and today was one of those days," said Wallace.

Chart of the Rebel Stakes.

9:00 p.m. … Some random closing thoughts. If you think horse racing is dead, come to Oaklawn Park on a weekend. Despite damp weather and temperatures in the high 40s or low 50s, the turnstiles clicked 28,240 times, the second-biggest Rebel day crowd in the track’s long history. Handle was also second-best for the Rebel: a total of $6.5 million was wagered on the program on-track and at simulcast sites throughout the country.

There were some familiar faces in the crowd, including John Ed Anthony and his son Edwin (pictured, right), who just began contributing pedigree profiles of some leading Kentucky Derby contenders to the Paulick Report. John Ed raced horses for years in the name of Loblolly Stables with a great deal of success. He now races as Shortleaf Stable, and uses D. Wayne Lukas as trainer. "I’ll tell you one thing," he said. "It’s a lot easier to get a good horse when you’ve 50 or 60 than when you’ve got a dozen." Anthony is an Arkansas native and lumberman who knows as much about the Razorback State as anyone I know. "There’s a lot of wealthy people in Arkansas," he said, "and I think almost all of them want to race horses."

But no one I ran across (other than Charles Cella perhaps) has seen more Oaklawn Park meetings come and go than Don Grisham (pictured, left), the retired Daily Racing Form writer who at 78 years of age still loves coming to the track and assists the media department. Grisham grew up in Hot Springs and started sneaking into Oaklawn Park to watch the races behind some bushes (you had to be 16 to get into the track through the gates), beginning in 1943. Around that time, Grisham said, Triple Crown winner Whirlaway was his hero. "My friends’ heroes were people like Stan Musial (the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Famer)," Grisham said, "but Whirlaway was it for me." Grisham said he heard that Whirlaway was stabled at Oaklawn one meeting during World War II, (though he never raced at Oaklawn) and he built up the courage to track down trainer Ben Jones in hopes of getting a look at the horse nicknamed Mr. Longtail. 

"He couldn’t have been nicer when I told him I was Whirlaway’s No.1 fan," Grisham said. "He pulled him out and let me get a look at  him, then gave me three pieces of advice: ‘Listen to your parents. Get a good education. Don’t ever lose your enthusiasm for the game.’ I don’t know where I’d be today if Ben Jones wasn’t nice to me."

Grisham hasn’t lost his enthusiasm for racing, and neither have the Oaklawn Park faithful.

One final note: the wait in the Arkansas Sports Tavern was worth it. I decided to upgrade on the corned beef sandwich and went for the corned beef reuben. Let me tell you…it was mighty tasty — and well worth the trip.

And that’s a wrap from Oaklawn Park. 

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

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