By Ray Paulick
(Who do you like in this year’s Kentucky Derby? Please use the comment section below to give us your picks and analysis of the race.)
It’s anybody’s guess how wet the Churchill Downs racing surface is going to be on Saturday for the 135
th running of the Kentucky Derby, although Butch Lehr has faced this challenge many times in the past and has managed to almost always make the best of it, sealing the track overnight to prevent too much moisture from getting in and then working it throughout the day. The end result could make one of the most formidable handicapping challenges of the year that much tougher because heavy overnight rains are expected and we really don’t know how most of the 20 entrants in the race will perform on a sloppy, muddy, or drying-out racetrack. Of all the horses in the line-up, only Friesan Fire has really proven himself on a sloppy racetrack, romping to a 7 ¼-length victory in the Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans.
I’ll be at Churchill Downs in Louisville Saturday, but my heart will be in Florida, where one of the Paulick Report’s most loyal readers will be celebrating his 91st birthday on Derby Day. That would be my father, Al Paulick, and if I could be anywhere other than Churchill Downs it would be with him, celebrating with a homemade birthday cake made by my mother and enjoying the Derby day telecasts on ESPN and NBC with both of them. I hope they’ll save me a piece of cake.
I’ve been a believer in Pioneerof the Nile throughout the spring, putting him on top in my Paulick Derby Index in eight of the nine weeks since we launched the AP-style poll in February. The lone exception was the week after the Florida Derby, when I moved Quality Road into the top spot. A week later, after Pioneerof the Nile won the Santa Anita Derby impressively, the son of Empire Maker was back in the top slot on my list.
So I’m staying with Pioneerof the Nile, though the complications of a horse who has never run on conventional dirt figure to be an even stickier wicket on an “off” track. But I like the way this horse has progressed through his four races since joining the barn of three-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert, he’s had zero setbacks along the way, and has appeared to train extremely well since arriving at Churchill Downs. The choice by jockey Garrett Gomez and his agent Ron Anderson, to ride Pioneerof the Nile instead of the lightly raced but ultra-talented Dunkirk bolstered my confidence that much more, and I think he’ll get an average to fast pace to run at in this year’s Derby.
The highest Beyer Speed Figure for Pioneerof the Nile (99) is lower than the lifetime best Beyer for nine of the others in the race, but I’m not convinced speed figures are as accurate on synthetics as they are on conventional dirt, and horsemen have said for years that California figures are habitually lower than those of their East Coast and Midwest rivals. Plus, none of these horses has ever gone a mile and a quarter on dirt, so the Beyer Figures that apply to shorter distances are in some ways irrelevant on Derby Day, at least the way I look at it.
Pioneerof the Nile not only has won four consecutive graded stakes for Baffert and the Zayat Stable, the horses he’s defeated have gone on to bigger and better things after they left Southern California. The best example, of course, is morning-line favorite I Want Revenge, who was beaten twice by the Pioneer and then swept the Gotham and Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in separate invasions of New York. Chocolate Candy won two stakes in Northern California after being defeated in the Cash Call Futurity by Pioneerof the Nile, and Papa Clem ran second to Friesan Fire in the Louisiana Derby and then defeated Old Fashioned at Oaklawn Park in the Arkansas Derby.
Going back to my handicapping roots while at the Daily Racing Form 20 years ago and from knowledge I gained from reading books by such brilliant handicappers as Steve Davidowitz and the late Tom Ainslie (aka Richard Carter), those victories by horses that chased Pioneerof the Nile made his victories that much more significant.
So Pioneerof the Nile is my top pick to win. Here’s how I feel about the rest of the field, in post position order:
1) West Side Bernie, jockey Stewart Elliott. Let’s give credit to trainer Kelly Breen and owners Lori and George Hall for getting two horses to the Derby (Atomic Rain being the other). That’s an achievement in itself, though I would be shocked to see either of them hit the board.
2) Musket Man, jockey Eibar Coa. Has been really smartly placed by trainer Derek Ryan throughout his career, resulting in five wins from six starts. Son of Yonaguska has never faced this kind of competition, however.
3) Mr. Hot Stuff, jockey John Velazquez. Full brother to Travers winner Colonel John has been slower developing than his year-older sibling. He’ll be running late, though if he’s a threat for anything it will be for third or fourth place. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him duplicate what Colonel John did at Saratoga three months down the road.
4) Advice, jockey Rene Douglas. Couldn’t win in New Mexico, but neither could Real Quiet, who won the Derby and Preakness and just missed the Triple Crown by a nose. But Real Quiet’s sojourn to the Land of Enchantment was as a 2-year-old, and Advice ran fifth there in late March of his 3-year-old season. Another late-developer it appears who won’t be a threat to win.
5) Hold Me Back, jockey Kent Desormeaux. Another synthetic surface specialist, specifically Polytrack, where he’s won 3-of-4, with a second in the Blue Grass. Only dirt start, a fifth in the Remsen, makes him a throw-out in my book.
6) Friesan Fire, jockey Gabriel Saez. Can Larry Jones improve on his last two Derby runner-up finishes. think he’s got the best chance to win that he’s had since arriving on the Derby scene in 2007, especially if the track does come up sloppy. Jones isn’t a conventional trainer, giving the horse a long layoff between the March 14 Louisiana Derby and the first Saturday in May, but I like the pattern of works he’s put into this son of A.P. Indy.
7) Papa Clem, jockey Rafael Bejarano. Gary Stute might have the horse to finish the job his father, Mel Stute, started in 1986 when Snow Chief lost the Derby as the heavy favorite. Smart Strike has turned into a world-class sire, and Stute has this colt sharp as a tack after blowing him out a quick three furlongs on Thursday, an old-school move that I really like. He could be sitting just off the pace and make the first run when the speed tires.
8 ) Mine That Bird, jockey Calvin Borel. Calvin had his big day two years ago aboard Street Sense and on Friday in the Kentucky Oaks aboard Rachel Alexandra. No matter how far back this son of Birdstone finishes, Calvin will have nothing to be disappointed about.
9) Join in the Dance, jockey Chris Decarlo. Todd Pletcher said the Sky Mesa colt “will be in front” in the early stages of the Derby, but I think Join in the Dance will look down that long Churchill Downs stretch and throw in the towel without much of a fight.
10) Regal Ransom, jockey Alan Garcia. Won the UAE Derby over the more highly regarded stablemate Desert Party, but the track that night was speed favoring, and he was under no pressure whatsoever. I see a different scenario here and don’t think the son of Distorted Humor will ever see the front.
11) Chocolate Candy, jockey Mike Smith. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer knows how to win big races at Churchill Downs, having won two Kentucky Oaks, and this son of Candy Ride gives him a legitimate shot in the Derby. Though his entire career has been spent on synthetic tracks in California, I have a suspicion, based on his pedigree, that he will adapt to a sloppy track much better than some of the others.
12) General Quarters, jockey Julian Leparoux. The worst bet in the field, based on the early odds on Friday. Apparently, everyone who ever went to the Louisville school where owner and trainer Tom McCarthy was a teacher and principal bet on this son of Sky Mesa, driving his odds far lower than they should be. He won the Blue Grass, but I don’t like how he’s trained since then, and the field he beat at Keeneland was not a very good one.
13) (SCRATCHED) I Want Revenge, jockey Joe Talamo. The biggest threat to Pioneerof the Nile on paper, based on those two impressive New York victories in the Gotham and Wood Memorial. The Stephen Got Even colt has versatility, so it will be interesting where young Joe Talamo places him in the early going. Jeff Mullins has won big races in his career, but none this big. The Derby is I Want Revenge’s third big road trip in less than two months, and I suspect that could take a little something out of the colt.
14) Atomic Rain, jockey Joe Bravo. Another son of Smart Strike, he showed good form last year when second in the Remsen to Old Fashioned, but hasn’t really progressed this year, and wasn’t intended for the race until a late withdrawal opened the doors for him. Pass.
15) Dunkirk, jockey Edgar Prado. I have really been conflicted on this horse. First, I’m a believer there’s a reason horses without 2-year-old form have not done well in the Kentucky Derby. There is an important seasoning factor that helps win this race, with its big field, hectic training schedule and frenetic race-day atmosphere. Trainer Todd Pletcher has kept the horse in the quiet surroundings of Palm Meadows training in Florida until mid-week, but he’s only had three starts and none since March 28, when he was a tired horse when beaten by Quality Road in the Florida Derby. He has plenty of ability, but this presents a steep hill to climb.
16) Pioneerof the Nile, jockey Garrett Gomez. So many things are in his favor: a winning record, outstanding pedigree, top-class rider and a trainer who knows what it takes to win the Kentucky Derby. The biggest question mark is the transition from synthetics to dirt, and that’s obviously why Baffert took an outside post position, to have a minimum amount of kickback in Pioneerof the Nile’s face, especially in the early stages of the race.
17) Summer Bird, jockey Chris Rosier. After breaking his maiden he made his first stakes start in the Arkansas Derby and finished a credible third. I’ve got him in the last pool, even though his running style suggests he could pass tiring horses in the stretch.
18) Nowhere to Hide, jockey Shaun Bridgomohan. Trainer Nick Zito loves the Kentucky, and he’s shown in the past that he’s willing to bring a horse with little to no chance just to have a spot in the starting gate. That’s the case, I’m afraid.
19) Desert Party, jockey Ramon Dominguez. I think this Street Cry colt represents the best chance Godolphin has had to win the Kentucky Derby, but I just don’t believe he can overcome the long travel and difficult transition back to American racing after spending the winter in Dubai.
20)
Flying Private, jockey Robbie Albarado. If anyone loves the Derby than Nick Zito it’s D. Wayne Lukas. But I’ll say this about Lukas: he’s won or ran big inraces before with horses like this that didn’t look like they belonged. Best race was on the Polytrack at Turfway Park, and that doesn’t give me a lot of confidence in this son of Fusaichi Pegasus.
THE BET: I’m not a huge gimmicks player, so I’ll be boxing exactas and trifectas using Pioneerof the Nile, Papa Clem, Friesan Fire and Chocolate Candy and throwing I Want Revenge out of the picture altogether. I think his travel itinerary will have gotten to him. But aside from I Want Revenge, I see Derby 135 as mostly a California stampede.
More than anything else, let’s hope for a safe trip for everyone from start to finish.
Who do you like in this year’s Kentucky Derby? Please use the comment section below to give us your picks and analysis of the race.
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To this day, even after Malibu Moon was moved to Kentucky, standing first at the late Dr. Tony Ryan’s Castleton Lyons Farm and now at Hughes’ Spendthrift Farm, that deal is paying dividends to Country Life, which retains a 25% share in the horse. In a strange kind of way, Hollingsworth gets more than a little credit..jpg)
