Posts Tagged ‘kentucky derby’

By Ray Paulick
Bradley Weisbord, recently named the finance and stallion manager for Ahmed Zayat’s financially troubled Zayat Stables, told the Paulick Report no deal has been struck to sell all or any portion of Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth winner Eskendereya, a leading candidate for this year’s Kentucky Derby.

“Mr. Zayat has said he is in this business to operate it as a business,” Weisbord said,. “and he is pursuing offers. There have been numerous parties involved interested in anything from 10% to 100% of the horse.”

Eskendereya won the Feb. 20 Fountain of Youth by 7 1/4 lengths, his third victory in five starts. The margin and ease of victory, combined with huge numbers from speed figure calculators, put the son of Giant’s Causeway at the top of many Kentucky Derby lists. He was a $250,000 Keeneland September yearling graduate, sold by Peter O’Callaghan’s Woods Edge Farm, where he was raised. Sanford Robertson bred him in Kentucky. Eskendereya is out of the Seattle Slew mare, Aldebaran Light,

One bloodstock agent who spoke with the Paulick Report on the condition of anonymity, said he made inquiries about Eskendereya with Zayat Stables associates and was told it would take more than $5 million for a half-interest in the colt. Weisbord wouldn’t confirm any prices being offered.

Zayat Stables was sued by Fifth Third bank for allegedly being delinquent on loans totaling $34 million, and the stable countersued the bank. Zayat Stables subsequently filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and is now being investigated by at least two racing commissions for possible ties Zayat had with convicted bookmakers Michael and Jeffrey Jelinsky, to whom he said he made loans totaling more than $600,000. According to sources, one of the Jelinsky brothers attended the 2008 Kentucky Derby post position draw in Louisville as Zayat’s guest.

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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By Ray Paulick
Every now and then you see a pedigree that brings back great memories, and that was the case for me when looking at the results of last Saturday’s Grade 3 Sabin Stakes on the main track at Gulfstream Park.

The winner, Aurora Lights, was winning her first American Graded Stakes in the Sabin, although she captured last year’s Canadian Grade 3 Selene Stakes as a 3-year-old. The daughter of Pulpit out of the Lord At War mare, Lady Lochinvar, races for the Chiefswood Stables of Canadian investment banker Robert Krembil and his son, Mark. They bought her for $800,000 during Tuesday’s select session of the 2007 Keeneland September yearling sale from Darby Dan Farm, agent for breeders Mr. and Mrs. Larry D. Williams.

Pulpit, a son of A.P. Indy who has gone on to be  a very successful sire at Claiborne Farm, was an exciting racehorse whose career was cut short by an injury while running fourth to Silver Charm in the 1997 Kentucky Derby. The Derby was his sixth and final career starts—all as a 3-year-old. He had earlier American Graded Stakes victories in the Fountain of Youth and Blue Grass Stakes.

But it’s the female side of Aurora Lights’ pedigree that really brings back the memories for me. Lady Lochinvar was bred by the Wimborne Farm of Diane  Perkins, who raced Lord At War and stood him to a very successful career at stud. Lady Winborne (spelled differently than Wimborne Farm), the dam of Lady Lochinvar, was an exceptional broodmare, producing 15 foals, 12 of which started and won. Among those foals are American Graded Stakes winners Al Mamoon, La Gueriere (herself an outstanding broodmare), and Lost Soldier, plus two other stakes winners.

Lady Winborne was sired by Triple Crown winner Secretariat out of Priceless Gem, who beat the great Buckpasser as a 2-year-old. Priceless Gem, by Hail to Reason, was produced by the Hall of Fame mare Searching. The female pedigree traces back to one of the most influential broodmares of all time, La Troienne.

It goes without saying that Aurora Lights has the pedigree and now the racing record to be a very valuable broodmare in the future.

I can’t say that I remember Priceless Gem’s defeat of Buckpasser, though I do remember as though it was yesterday when Lord At War won the 1985 Santa Anita Handicap for trainer Peter and Diane Perkins, trainer Charlie Whittingham, and jockey Bill Shoemaker.

Shoemaker had to choose between two horses for that year’s Big ‘Cap, Greinton, who was part-owned by Whittingham and trained by the Bald Eagle, and Lord At War, who was imported from his native Argentina the previous year and came into the race with four consecutive victories. Shoemaker made the right choice, going with Lord At War, giving the Hall of Fame jockey the 11th and last Big ‘Cap victory of his career. It was the sixth win in  Santa Anita’s big race for Whittingham, who would come back to win it the following year with Greinton and get his eighth and final Big ‘Cap with Sir Beaufort in 1993.

As great as it was to see Shoemaker and Whittingham carry the day in 1985, the amazing thing about that year’s Big ‘Cap was the crowd: an all-time Santa Anita record attendance of  85,527. It wasn’t Lord At War they came out to see, it was the race itself, which Santa Anita’s creative marketing director, Alan Balch, promoted heavily as THE day to come out to the races in Southern California.

This Saturday will mark the 73rd running of the Arcadia, Calif., track’s signature event. And while the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap may not be the race it once was, with the Dubai World Cup later this month taking away some of the best horses, it’s still a race that’s worth a lot more than just memories.

A field of 14 will go in this year’s $750,000 Big ‘Cap, and though the turnout will be south of 85,527, there will still be a roar from the crowd when the horses break from the starting gate at the top of the stretch for the mile and a quarter run, just as there was back in 1935, when Azucar won the first edition of this great race.

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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Jennie Rees of the Courier-Journal makes the case to bring Drew Brees, Super Bowl Champion and MVP for the New Orleans Saints, to Louisville for the Kentucky Derby. She rightly states that he would be a perfect grand marshall for the Kentucky Derby Festival’s Pegasus Parade and smart addition for the Barnstable Brown party.

Owning a piece of racehorse Daddy Forty Niner, Brees has proven himself a fan of the sport and would make headlines across the country for being so heavily involved in racing’s biggest day. It’s a strong play and the type of pop culture melding our industry desperately needs.

Read it at the Courier-Journal

Then come back to the Paulick Report and let us know what you think

- Bradford Cummings

The Paulick Report is pleased to once again offer the pedigree insights of Edwin Anthony in the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Ed has lifelong experience in the Thoroughbred industry, has practical experience planning matings for his family’s stable and formerly as a pedigree adviser to Three Chimneys Farm. His perspective is straightforward and refreshingly opinionated, and I advise anyone interested in Thoroughbred pedigrees to pick up a copy of his book, “The American Thoroughbred (Volume One)”—available for purchase here.

In this first of a series of articles, he looks at the pedigree of Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth winner Eskendereya. – Ray Paulick

ESKENDEREYA (Giant’s Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew)
By Edwin Anthony
I wrote a series of eight pedigree profiles for horses on the “Triple Crown trail” starting about this time last year, and recent Fountain of Youth (G2) winner Eskendereya will serve as the first horse in our series this season. It’s interesting to look back at the horses we profiled last year (Friesan Fire, Quality Road, Pioneerof the Nile, Dunkirk, I Want Revenge, Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy, Rachel Alexandra) to see how they fared.

Quality Road is obviously a top horse (he missed the Triple Crown with quarter cracks), while Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile were each able to place in one classic race, and I wrote a token piece about Rachel Alexandra because she looked like a very special filly, even though she had not won anything more than a G2 race at that stage.  Only a fortune teller could have predicted Rachel Alexandra’s Horse of the Year campaign after changing hands or the rapid ascension of Birdstone (sire of longshot classic winners Mine That Bird and Summer Bird) as a major classic influence.

Even though I have studied Thoroughbred pedigrees for going on 25 years, no one can get around the folly of bad luck, injuries in training, or the fact that many horses look dominant going nine furlongs (a mile-and-an-eighth) but simply aren’t up to the demanding task of running classic distances at a competitive speed.

That’s the mystery of stamina and genetics that we’re constantly trying to figure out.  Of course, even a horse that is capable of competing at classic distances still needs to put out the effort, and sometimes horses have off-days just like people.

If nothing else, we strive to learn about the strengths and limitations of the stallions and ancestors under discussion and hope to come out smarter on the other side.  At the very least, we want to learn what strategies are working in pedigrees, even if some of them aren’t up to the classic standard.  Who are the soundest horses, where is the stamina coming from, and what ancestors are best to inbreed to?  These are the answers we’re looking for.

Pedigree analysts (like myself) try to identify patterns in graded stakes results as a way of predicting the future.  Given that the Storm Cat line has been a poor source of classic winners, then you probably wouldn’t want to lean heavily on Storm Cat’s sons (or stallions out of Storm Cat mares) in your stallion recommendations for breeders that want to breed for the classics.  The Storm Cat line hasn’t had a winner of a Triple Crown race since Tabasco Cat in 1994, although Bluegrass Cat was second in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont, and Travers in 2006.  You should note that Bluegrass Cat is out of a mare by classic influence A.P. Indy and his dam is heavily inbred to the foundation mare La Troienne, including being from the Numbered Account (champion 2YO filly by Buckpasser) branch of that important family.

So, while the Storm Cat line is dominant in 2-year-old racing and in races contested at distances of 9 furlongs or shorter, it does not appear capable of producing classic types, unless there is a LOT of help on the dam side of the equation.  Of course, when you start to speak in these kinds of absolutes, a special horse can come along and provide us with the exception to the rule.

Storm Cat’s son Giant’s Causeway was a tough campaigner in Europe out of a good racemare by Rahy, with a second dam by English Derby winner and classic influence Roberto.  He was undeniably consistent and high class, winning a series of Group 1 races at more than a mile. In his final start, he gave classic distance specialist Tiznow a real run for his money in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, that being his only start on dirt.  So, Giant’s Causeway was sound, very fast, and capable of competing with top horses at the American classic distance of 10 furlongs (a mile-and-a-quarter).  This makes him an exception among sons of Storm Cat, as most of his sons that have found any measure of success at stud were much better at a mile or less and have passed on this penchant for speed among their progeny.

Giant’s Causeway has already sired Grade 1 winners in America over 10 furlongs like Heatseeker (Santa Anita Handicap), Frost Giant (Suburban), and Red Giant (NWR, Clement L. Hirsch Memorial Turf Championship), so you can see that if there is a son of Storm Cat capable of siring an American classic winner, then Giant’s Causeway is probably the one.

The runaway win by Eskendereya (by Giant’s Causeway) in the Fountain of Youth (G2) was more than visually impressive.  You could see that the horse really relished the opportunity to go two turns, and he is now 3 for 3 on the dirt, his only losses coming in his first start (a maiden event on turf at Saratoga) and a poor effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), contested over the synthetic surface at Santa Anita.  He was reported to have a troubled trip in that race as well.

I have often thought that a true classic type horse is able to simply get into a steady gallop and carve out “12’s,” which is to say that he can consistently complete each furlong of a race in 12 seconds.  It becomes increasingly difficult to do with each furlong, as the muscles begin to tire, and Secretariat’s world record time of 2:24 in the 1973 Belmont (over 12 furlongs) is the best example of a horse being able to accomplish this feat over such a distance.  It’s not about an explosive move or “turn of foot” with classic horses; it’s steady horsepower over a distance.  Classic horses “stay” (as the Europeans like to say), while horses more suited to shorter distances simply run out of gas, unable to maintain a steady stream of “12’s” on the toteboard teletimer.

This is exactly what Eskendereya did to the field in the Fountain of Youth (G2)—he galloped them into submission.  After taking over after a half-mile in a soft 47.92, he completed six furlongs in 1:12.41, a mile in 1:36.54, with a final time for nine furlongs of 1:48.87, echoing the many 12-second furlongs before the last one.  So, like several other sons of Giant’s Causeway, Eskendereya looks capable of running a distance of ground as far as 10 furlongs at a competitive rate of speed.  Let’s look at the bottom side of his pedigree to check for more stamina.

Eskendereya’s damsire, Seattle Slew, won the Triple Crown and has been a very successful classic influence, with descendants like A.P. Indy (Belmont, Breeders’ Cup Classic), Bernardini (Preakness, Travers), Cigar (Breeders’ Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup), Lemon Drop Kid (Belmont, Travers), Mineshaft (Jockey Club Gold Cup, Suburban), and Slew o’ Gold (Jockey Club Gold Cup twice) serving as notable examples.

Alydar (second in all 3 Triple Crown races to Affirmed) is the sire of Eskendereya’s second dam, and beyond the fact that he sired two Kentucky Derby winners (Alysheba and Strike the Gold) and a Belmont winner (Easy Goer), Horse of the Year Point Given (Preakness, Belmont, Travers) was produced by a mare by champion Turkoman, he being a son of Alydar.

We know that inbreeding to the family of Almahmoud (second dam of both Halo and Northern Dancer) has been quite successful, and Giant’s Causeway is a very good example of this, as Storm Cat is a grandson of Northern Dancer and Rahy (his damsire) is out of a mare by Halo.  The pedigree of Eskendereya shows why a six-generation computer program is a good investment, as his third dam carries intensive inbreeding to the Almahmoud family as well.  His third dam is by Northern Dancer himself (giving Eskendereya “balanced” inbreeding to Northern Dancer—through a son and a daughter), and while his fourth dam was sired by the stout stamina influence Ribot (winner of the 12-furlong “Arc” twice) his fifth dam is actually the mare Cosmah, she being the dam of Halo and a daughter of Almahmoud. Thus, Eskendereya is not only inbred to Northern Dancer through  a son and a daughter, he is inbred to Halo’s dam, Cosmah, 6 x 5 and carries four total crosses of Almahmoud.

As the ancestors Northern Dancer, Halo, and their granddam Almahmoud get further back in pedigrees, this reinforcement strategy of crossing horses inbred to Almahmoud should continue to find success and revive their influence in classic pedigrees.  My parents bred and raced Preakness winner Pine Bluff (inbred 4 x 4 to Almahmoud), and I have noticed him working well with reinforcement of Almahmoud’s genes, crossing successfully with stallions like More Than Ready (by Southern Halo—closely inbred to Almahmoud), Menifee (by Harlan—closely inbred to Almahmoud), and Jules (from the Northern Dancer family and carrying Halo in his pedigree).  So, it seems to be a strategy that is paying dividends with stallions and mares already carrying inbreeding to Almahmoud.

Given the fact that Giant’s Causeway has already proven capable of siring runners that excel at classic distances, and the fact that Eskendereya carries a number of other classic influences in his pedigree (Seattle Slew, Alydar, Ribot, and intensive inbreeding to the influential Almahmoud family), I’d say that his classic prospects look very bright indeed.  His clear preference for dirt racing and ability to string together one 12 second furlong after another only boosts his stock, in my opinion.  If Eskenereya can arrive in Louisville with a solid Florida Derby (G1) effort under his belt, he should be a very strong contender.
 
Edwin Anthony was the staff pedigree consultant at Three Chimneys Farm for six years and has penned dozens of articles on pedigree research.  He also published The American Thoroughbred (Volume I) in 2008, which can be ordered via the banner ad link on this web page or on his web site at www.thoroughbredadvisor.com.

By Ray Paulick
Todd Pletcher isn’t the only who had a big weekend last week, winning three American Graded Stakes races for 3-year-olds on Feb. 20: the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park with Eskendereya, the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds with Discreetly Mine, and the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields with Connemara.

Coolmore Ashford’s Giant’s Causeway sired two of the Pletcher-trained AGS winners, Eskendereya and Connemara, giving the 13-year-old Storm Cat stallion a total of three AGS winners thus far in 2010 (San Pasqual Handicap winner Neko Bay is the other one). For good measure, another top 3-year-old prospect by Giant’s Causeway, Northern Giant, finished a solid third for Pletcher’s mentor, Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, in the Risen Star. Only 16 days earlier, Northern Giant turned in a huge effort winning an Oaklawn Park maiden race by 11 1/4 lengths. He’s obviously a slow developing colt, the win coming in his sixth start.

On the strength of those AGS winners, Giant’s Causeway is atop the general sire list thus far in 2010 after being leading North American sire in 2009 for the first time since his first crop reached the racetrack in 2004. He was a truly outstanding racehorse and it’s no surprise that he’s developed into an elite sire. Giant’s Causeway has yet to sire his first American classic winner, but Eskendereya, who moved to the top of many Kentucky Derby lists with his Fountain of Youth victory, could easily change that.

With his weekend victories, trainer Pletcher now has won eight AGS races of 2010 with seven different horses. That’s 16% of the 50 AGS races run so far this year. Pletcher is on a brief “vacation” now, the result of a suspension stemming from a positive test at the 2008 Breeders’ Cup. His stable is deep in talent, is coming off a very strong 2009, and is ranked as the leading trainer by money won so far in 2010 (with reigning Eclipse Award winner Steven Asmussen in hot pursuit) while winning at a 27% clip. With Quality Road leading the way in the older male division, an incredibly deep roster of 3-year-old talent, and undoubtedly a talented group of 2-year-olds now going through early training, this could be a year to remember for Pletcher.

The saga of Ahmed Zayat’s Zayat Stables and the Fifth Third Bank that sued the stable took an interesting turn over the weekend when Eskendereya ran away and hid from nine rivals in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Just as Fifth Third was pushing for the authority to take over and manage the Zayat Stable assets, Eskendereya, one of those assets, exploded in value with his overpowering 8 1/2-length victory that vaulted him to the top of numerous rankings of Kentucky Derby contenders, including my own. At this stage of the dispute, it would be difficult to convince a bankruptcy court judge that a bank would do a better job managing a racing stable than the team that Zayat has assembled over the last several years, when he has ranked among the leading owners in North America, retired two top stallion prospects to the breeding shed (multiple Grade 1 winner Zensational and Kentucky Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile) and developed a leading candidate for the 2010 Kentucky Derby. The bank most recently dropped their demand for a trustee to be appointed to manage the assets.

So Zayat, despite filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, holds some pretty good cards in his hand right now, led by the ace of the stable, Eskendereya, whose value probably increased tenfold with that Fountain of Youth victory.

Under normal circumstances, offers from stallion farms would start flooding in on a horse like Eskendereya, considering how he dismantled a good field and the pedigree he carries (Giant’s Causeway out of a Seattle Slew mare). But if the horse is worth $5 million or more and Zayat decides to sell all or part of him, how much of a dent would that put on the reported $34 million he is said ot owe Fifth Third? Probably not enough to convince Zayat to sell, especially given his personal quest to win big races like the Kentucky Derby. Besides, if Eskendereya runs the table and wins the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown (and we’re not making that prediction), he’s probably worth tens of millions of dollars and closer to bailing Zayat out in one fell swoop.

On the other side of this rather expensive coin is the grim reality that what goes up also can come down. If Eskendereya is worth $5 million today after a Grade 2 victory, what would he be worth if he throws in a clunker next time out and fails to hit the board? Answer: a lot less than what he is worth today.

Zayat is a gambler, both at the betting windows and in the auction ring. He’s gambled tens of millions of dollars that he can increase the value of his bloodstock assets, and I would bet that he will not be willing to sell a cherished property like Eskendereya as long as there is more upside available. His track record in the horse business suggests he does not sell on the way up.

I think it goes without saying Fifth Third would like Zayat to monetize some assets, but he is currently holding the cards. 

Click here for Ray’s Under The Raydar segment

Following is my latest top 10 horses for the Paulick Derby Index:
 
1. Eskendereya. Leader of Todd’s Squad, perhaps the strongest group of horses multiple Eclipse Award-winning trainer Todd Pletcher has ever had in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby, where his futility is well documented. Pletcher will win more than one Derby before his career is over.

2. Lookin At Lucky. Still awaiting the 2009 2-year-old champion’s seasonal debut. Bob Baffert trained the son of Smart Strike cautiously last weekend when rain hitouthern California. If he has no prep on dirt prior to the Kentucky Derby, this one will be tough to gauge.

3. Rule. Pletcher has some time on the sidelines, thanks to the suspension he received as a result of a positive test at the 2008 Breeders’ Cup. He can use the down time to map out a road to the Derby for his various candidates, including this son of Roman Ruler, who has looked good beating up on relatively weak competition.

4. American Lion. Assuming Eoin Harty will keep Tiznow colt on synthetic surfaces until testing him at Churchill Downs. At this stage he looks to be part of a heavy speed brigade among the various contenders.

5. Dave in Dixie. Can’t wait to see this Dixie Union colt’s next start for trainer John Sadler. Finished with a tremendous burst in deep stretch in the Robert Lewis Stakes and figures to improve with racing.

6. Discreetly Mine. Pletcher-trained colt fits the profile of a Kentucky Derby winner in so many ways: a lot of racing experience at two, strong performances in graded stakes, and a pedigree (Mineshaft out of a Private Account mare) that makes you think distance is no problem.

7. Conveyance. Hard to knock an unbeaten horse, and this Indian Charlie colt has been highly regarded from the start; he sold for $240,000 as a yearling and probably brought 10 times more than that when he was purchased privately by Zabeel Racing earlier this year.

8. Dublin. Hopeful winner at Saratoga last summer returned to good form in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, chasing Conveyance to the wire while making up a lot of ground in the final eighth of a mile. That suggests the D. Wayne Lukas-trained son of Afleet Alex will be that much tougher when the distances stretch out.

9. Buddy’s Saint. Son of Saint Liam went from big time to small time in no time with his ninth-place finish in Fountain of Youth. But considering all the trouble the Nashua and Remsen Stakes winner had around the first turn when he was bounced around after rushing up along the rail into a hole that didn’t exist, it’s easy to see how the colt may have gotten discouraged. It’s the kind of race you just draw a line through and hope it wasn’t a reflection of his true ability.

10. Caracortado. Just like with Conveyance, it’s tough to knock perfection. He’s had relatively soft competition until last out in the Robert Lewis, when son of Cat Dream got the perfect trip behind dueling leaders

After an exciting weekend of racing, Gary West offers a strong analysis of where we are on the Derby Trail so far. Above all, it’s hard to argue with his assessment that Eskendereya’s Fountain of Youth performance puts him on the very short list of elite contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Read it at the Star-Telegram

Then come back to the Paulick Report and let us know what you think

- Bradford Cummings

By Ray Paulick
When Barbaro streaked to the wire 6 1/2 lengths in front to win the 2006 Kentucky Derby, there was tremendous buzz throughout the racing world over the contributions the unbeaten son of Dynaformer could make to the Thoroughbred breed as a future stallion.

Those hopes were dashed when Barbaro suffered a devastating hind leg injury shortly after the start of the Preakness Stakes, and lost a gallant battle for survival some 8 1/2 months later.

In a strange way, though, Roy and Gretchen Jackson’s homebred colt may yet have a greater impact on the breed than ever imagined. It was his injury—played out in the glaring spotlight of the mainstream news media—that provided the impetus for a two-day workshop in October 2006 to examine ways to improve safety and soundness for racehorses. One of the recommendations to come out of this Welfare and Safety Summit was the creation of a national on-track injury reporting system. A pilot program, collecting injury data from 30 racetracks, was launched the following spring and became the forerunner of the Equine Injury Database, one of the recommendations of the Jockey Club’s Thoroughbred Safety Committee, formed after another high-profile tragedy—the death of the filly Eight Belles at the 2008 Kentucky Derby.

The Equine Injury Database, funded entirely by the Jockey Club as a service to the industry, is North America’s first national injury reporting program and includes approximately 84% of all Thoroughbred, Quarter Horse, mule, Appaloosa, Arabian and National Steeplechase Association races. Click here for the list of tracks that participating. Tracks not participating include Oaklawn Park, River Downs, and Los Alamitos.

Veterinarian Mary Scollay, equine medical director for the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission, has been an integral part of the data collection process from the beginning and serves as veterinary consultant to the Equine Injury Database. She provided an update on the work for the Paulick Report Forum brought to you by the Breeders’ Cup.

Can you provide an update on the Equine Injury Database after its formation nearly 18 months ago?
We implemented the quality control aspect of it in November 2008. What’s involved there is that the reporting veterinarians tick off a box for each live race date. That way we are able to know that we have complete reporting when no injuries may have occurred.

So Nov. 1, 2008, is the start of the quality controlled data period. We just sent 12 months of data to Dr. Tim Parkin, at the University of Glasgow in Scotland. He has done quite a bit of injury epidemiology work for the Hong Kong Jockey Club and British Horseracing Authority.

Why are some tracks not participating?
No has told me why. The software development and all reporting are done at no cost to the tracks and very little time is involved—no more than a couple of minutes per incident. If they are unable to enter the reports into our password-secured database, they can fax in their reports or mail them and we’ll enter it.

What is the severity or type of injuries being collected?
The criteria for reporting to this point has been any situation where a regulatory veterinarian has to intervene—a scratch in the morning because of soundness, a post parade scratch, flipping in the starting gate, a horse who fails to finish and is injured or is injured or lame after the finish. The data base is set up to separate fatalities from non-fatalities.

Is it just for racing, or are training incidents included?
We are interested in getting training information, but at this point the participation is inconsistent. Part of that is whether there is a regulatory veterinarian present during training hours.

Have there been any adjustments in the type of data collected or the methodology?
Not really. Epidemiologists have looked at how we were collecting it and are coinfident it is usable. After they start working with it I suspect they will make some suggestions.

What are the benefits the industry may get from this?
First off, accountability. We will be able to compare apples to apples and have reliable data related to racing injuries. Everyone is using the same criteria, so a specific kind of fracture is reported the same in Washington as in Florida. And if you have turnover in regulatory veterinarians, you collect the data the same.

The next thing is that we have now established a database on a national scope and will be able to identify risk factors to injury related to exercise patterns. It can also be a tool for racing secretaries related to stall allotments. Tracks can look at scratch patterns. The more information you put in the more you can do with it. Injury prevention and understanding injuries is important. Tim (Parkin) is going to be looking initially at fatalities. Everyone wants the answer to the $64,000 question about the different surfaces. But we don’t have enough data to answer that. We don’t have the pre- versus post- data related to synthetic tracks. There is very little in the Equine Injury Database that is pre-synthetic.
 
Within the context of a single track, if you start seeing injuries occurring at the quarter pole, the horsemen will say there is something wrong with the track there. But if you see a trend nationally, regardless of track configurations, size or surface, if you see an injury distribution pattern that is consistent, you are not condemning the track or the surface.
 
The Holy Grail is to combine the work Mick Peterson is doing with the Equine Injury Database (click here for information on the Racing Surfaces Testing Laboratory developed by Drs. Peterson and C. Wayne McIlwraith). He monitors different track surfaces, has a hydraulic foot to measure the surface response to compression, ground penetrating radar, measures weather, temperature of surface, and drainage. All that stuff has been an art, and he’s brought science to it.

Will results, interpretation or recommendations made as a result of the data be made public at some point?
Dr. Parkin is planning to release descriptive statistics on behalf of the Jockey Club. He is going to give stats that will talk about fatalities per 1,000 starts, will likely reference dirt, turf, synthetic, the distance of races. We have to understand that those numbers, whatever they are, are not the same as a risk assessment. Let’s say there is a higher rate of fatalities on one surface as compared to another. In and of itself that does not mean there is a higher risk because of the surface, because there may be other factors.

For example, when I was in Florida, I observed that we were getting double the rate of right hind pastern fractures on turf vs. dirt. It was consistent over four to five years at both Gulfstream and Calder. The assumption is that turf racing is associated with increased risk for right hind pastern injuries. What is it about grass that makes a horse more likely to fracture his right hind pastern vs. dirt. Finally, someone from France said, “But where are all your turf courses?” (On the inside of dirt tracks.) The turn radius is too tight. It was the turn radius, not the surface. 

The epidemiologist will need to find subsets of the whole population and narrow things down to single variables. You really need someone who is very proficient.

Will there be a version 2.0 of the database?
I’m at this point the proud mother. I’m not the one who is going to direct how the data is analyzed going forward. Parkin and Ashley Hill from Colorado State will do that first. We may come up with some questions that say to them, “Look at the data. Can you answer these questions or do you need something else?”

We are going to hear from people in the industry, questions they want asked, and we’ll hear from other researchers who will come forward with proposals. Ultimately it will become an academic resource. We’ve got some tracks that have been putting in data since January 2007—a lot of them have participated in good faith. We’ve got to follow up on that. We’ve provided the tracks with a good tool to use internally. Some tracks have several years worth of data, and they need to be able to use it.

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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As far as three-year-old races are concerned, last weekend proved to be a bit of a…washout (pardon the pun). Santa Anita postponed their Saturday card where PDI top ten contenders American Lion and Tiz Chrome were scheduled to go against each other in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Additionally, the Las Virgenes was to feature PDI number 12 Blind Luck, who could be this year’s superfilly  version of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. Fortunately for race fans, these races have been rescheduled for this Saturday the 13th.

On a down note, last week also brought the first deletion from the Derby Trail as Winslow Homer was forced to the sidelines and will miss the Kentucky Derby due to an injury that will take two months to recover from according to his connections.

This week, we’d like to thank James Scully of Brisnet for joining the PDI and are happy to give the racing public a voice by introducing a vote via our Daily Paulick Poll.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

1 - Bob Baffert and I have more in common than a head of grey (or white) hair. Neither one of us had the patience to sit through the old TV show “Short Attention Span Theater,” and we both have a tendency to get distracted by shiny metal objects.

Actually, in Baffert’s case, his distractions come from shiny, fast-moving objects like 2009 champion juvenile Lookin At Lucky, who caught his eye at Keeneland’s sale of 2-year-olds in training, or Tiz Chrome (shiny metal object!), impressive winner of a maiden race at Churchill Downs last fall for Whispering Oaks Farm.

Baffert acquired the latter colt, a son of Tiznow, following that Nov. 1 maiden win, and he now races for the partnership of the Lanni Family Trust, Mercedes Stable and Bernie Schiappa. (In truth, it was actually Schiappa, a car dealer who knows a lot about shiny metal objects, that first saw Tiz Chrome.) Tiz Chrome is one-for-one for his new owners, having scored impressively in a minor stakes at Hollywood Park Dec. 19. He hasn’t gone beyond 6 1/2 furlongs yet, so distance is a question, but this is a flashy colt with a lot of ability. We’ll obviously know more after his next start in this weekend’s Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita, rescheduled after last weekend’s washout.

2 - There’s a lot to like about Buddy’s Saint, a son of Saint Liam who took the late-season Nashua and Remsen Stakes in New York before heading down to Florida to winter. I’ve always preferred late-maturing 2-year-olds as Derby prospects to those who zoom to the head of their class earlier in the season and have little improvement left in them. We’ll find out in the upcoming Fountain of Youth whether the Bruce Levine-trained colt is continuing on the upswing.

3 - Lookin At Lucky is near-perfect after six starts, his lone defeat coming in a heartbreak loss in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Is this son of Smart Strike one of those early-maturing colts that the rest of his foal crop is catching up to? Recent history is not on his side.

4 - Super Saver is a colt with a lot of talent from the deep Todd Pletcher barn (we won’t get into Pletcher’s Derby numbers yet). Son of Maria’s Mon rated on the lead while winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, but it’s tough going wire to wire in the Derby.

5 - Jackson Bend finished a hard-trying second to now-sidelined Winslow Homer in the Holy Bull Stakes in his first start after being transferred to the barn of Hall of Famer Nick Zito, who does know a thing or two about winning the Kentucky Derby. Son of Hear No Evil (by Carson City) has a speed pedigree on top that should have some stamina influence from Cox’s Ridge on bottom side of his pedigree.

6 - I’m not going to second-guess trainer Todd Pletcher’s decision to send Rule down to Louisiana’s Delta Downs, where the son of Roman Ruler won the Jean Lafitte Stakes and Delta Jackpot, the latter Grade 3 race giving him more than enough money to qualify for the Derby field. Mine That Bird came out of Sunland Park to win last year’s Kentucky Derby, so maybe that will be the start of a trend of horses running for slots-rich purses en route to Churchill Downs.

7 - Indian Charlie colt Conveyance gives Hall of Famer Baffert three horses on my top 10 early-season Derby list. He’s opting to send this one to Oaklawn Park for Monday’s Southwest Stakes, following a hard-fought victory in the San Rafael at Santa Anita. Perhaps he’ll move up on the synthetic to dirt switch.

8 - American Lion is a son of Tiznow that gives WinStar Farm a strong early hand in the Triple Crown picture. Well-traveled colt is in the hands of Eoin Harty, who knows how to bring a horse up to a big race. Like Tiz Chrome, he’s only sprinted so far in his brief career, but with that pedigree (out of a Storm Cat mare) you’d have to think he’ll enjoy added distance.

9 - Blind Luck’s victory in the Hollywood Starlet to me was the most visually impressive win by any 2-year-old of either sex in 2009. Hard to believe cleverly named daughter of Pollard’s Vision started out her career in a $40,000 maiden claimer. Doubt trainer Jerry Hollendorfer will send her out against colts, but she does have an explosive turn of foot.

10 - Early in the winter of 2006 I considered Barbaro nothing more than an outstanding turf horse, so I’m not going to fall for that trap again with his full brother Lentenor, even though it took the son of Dynaformer three tries to break his maiden. Let’s see what he can do against winners.

By Ray Paulick
A potential April 3 matchup at Oaklawn Park between Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra and unbeaten, two-time champion Zenyatta may be the best news racing fans have heard in a long time. Oaklawn Park owner Charles Cella announced the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap would have its purse bumped from $500,000 to $5 million if both horses run, and the race would be lengthened from 1 1/16 miles to nine furlongs. It would change from a handicap to an invitational if both participated. If either fails to enter, the Apple Blossom would revert back to a $500,000 race.

Left unaddressed in the press release from Oaklawn Park was whether any network television plans for the race have been formulated beyond TVG and HRTV. April 3 is a busy day on the racing and sports calendar.

NBC will be televising two important races for 3-year-olds late that afternoon, the Wood Memorial from Aqueduct and Santa Anita Derby from Santa Anita Park in Southern California. Would NBC try to squeeze the Apple Blossom into the same broadcast, and would Oaklawn Park agree to share such a marquee event with two prep races for the Kentucky Derby?

The NBC deal was done with Churchill Downs, not the National Thoroughbred Racing Association, which formerly was responsible for much of the horse racing industry’s television exposure, primarily on the ESPN family of networks. The NTRA, while no longer in the television business and Oaklawn Park no longer a member of the NTRA, have assured the Paulick Report they will aggressively work with all parties to promote this event. According to Keith Chamblin, “The NTRA has and will continue to do everything it possibly can to maximize the promotion and television exposure of a showdown between Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta.”

Post time for the Apple Blossom could be a tricky decision, too. If the race is run after 6 p.m. Eastern Daylight Savings Time (Arkansas is in the Central time zone), it could go head to head with the first of two Final Four games in the men’s NCAA basketball tournament from Indianaapolis, which will be televised on CBS that evening. If it is run between 4:30-5:30 p.m. Eastern, it could butt heads with the Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby.

Needless to say, with the Final Four games scheduled that night, horse racing will have a difficult time getting much coverage in the mainstream press around the country. But if Oaklawn Park can pull it off, it will be a huge day for the Arkansas racetrack, and existing fans of the sport will have got what they wanted.

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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