Posts Tagged ‘keeneland september yearling sale’
Monday, September 28th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
So much has changed in the two weeks since the Keeneland September yearling sale began its marathon run on Sept. 14. The private jets and air transport planes lined up across Versailles Road at Bluegrass Field have been replaced by pick-up trucks hauling two-horse trailers. The sheikhs and other high rollers are long gone–except for a Paulick Report sighting today of movie star John Malkovich, strolling the Keeneland grounds looking dapper in a white suit as he prepares to portray trainer Lucien Laurin in the Secretariat movie. The high-end buyers have been supplanted by horse lovers of more modest means. Bids come not in $50,000 or $100,000 increments but often $100 at a time—if at all.
But the biggest change, and the one that will hit the hardest and have the longest-lasting effect in Central Kentucky, is the realization of just about every horse breeder’s worst fear: the almost surreal yet relentless dismantling of the Thoroughbred yearling market over a two-week period. Day after day, the hits just kept on coming in the way of deep double-digit declines in the key economic indicators of gross, average and median prices.
Pick your adjective: awful, brutal, terrible—they’ve all been used by various sellers and breeders who have been caught in a classic down cycle of buy high (2007 stud fees) and sell low (2009 market prices for yearlings). The fallout from this market is expected to be substantial. More than a few breeders have been forced to sell for whatever the market was willing to pay because of forebearance agreements with some banks that simply want to end their relationships with breeders and are willing to cut their losses.
We are nearing the end of the road for this year’s biggest sale. How many players in this industry will determine 2009 is the end of their Thoroughbred road is still to be determined.
After the final horse through the ring was sold on Monday (actually, it was an RNA), Keeneland reported the following final numbers for the September sale, and they weren’t pretty: 3,159 sold, down 12.4% from 3,605 sold in 2008, for total receipts of $191,859,200, a 41.5% decline in the gross from last year’s $327,999,000. The average price of $60,734 was down 33.3% from the 2008 average of $90,984, and the median of $22,000 was a 40.1% decline from the $37,000 median in 2008. In the end, the percentage of horses that failed to sell was 27.5%, higher than last year’s 24.8% but down considerably from the 35%-plus RNA rate from early in the sale.
Those numbers were even worse than the projections made by the Paulick Report midway through the sale. We projected the gross to end up at $190,000,000, but thought the average would be $65,000 and the median $25,000. The last week found a higher percentage of horses selling, but for prices lower than almost anyone might have expected. Monday’s final session ended up grossing $985,500 from 175 yearlings sold, an average of $5,613 and a median of $3,000.
This was the lowest Keeneland September sale gross since 1998, when 2,860 yearlings sold for a total of $169,811,800. This year’s average was the lowest since that same 1998 sale, which ended with a $59,375 average. The median was the lowest since 1996, which had an identical middle market number of $22,000.
Back in the 1990s, Keeneland still offered a July selected yearling sale (it was suspended in 2002). When you combine the totals from July and September, you have to go back to 1996 to find gross receipts lower than this year’s September sale (the 1996 July sale grossed $58,430,000, which combined with 1996 September totaled $195,788,600). Any way you slice it, the red ink flowed freely at this year’s sale, and the pain felt by breeders was palpable.
Nevertheless, the Keeneland September sale still represents the world’s largest international marketplace. Officials said buyers came from at least 30 countries. “Keeneland’s long-term international efforts in legacy and emerging markets provided a consistent return from start to finish,” director of sale Geoffrey Russell said in a state. “We take great satisfaction that based on their success with Keeneland graduates, buyers from emerging markets are participating earlier in the sale. They know that the Kentucky Thoroughbred is the most competitive product in the world.”
John Ferguson was the sale’s leading buyer, buying 34 yearlings for his client, Sheikh Mohammed of Dubai, for $13,980,000. Ferguson acknowledged a number of other yearlings purchased by other bloodstock agents would also wind up in the hands of the sheikh. Taylor Made Sales Agency ranked as the leading September sale consignor, selling 324 yearlings for $26,488,600. It was the agency’s sixth consecutive year as the top-grossing seller.
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Tags: John Malkovich, Keeneland, keeneland september yearling sale, Lucien Laurin, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick, thoroughbred Posted in Keeneland, Kentucky, Thoroughbred Auctions | 37 Comments »
Monday, September 21st, 2009
By Ray Paulick
When the sub-prime loan crisis led to a global financial meltdown at this time last year, many stock market investors lost 10 years of gains with their investment portfolios. That’s where the yearling market is headed, based on projections by the Paulick Report showing how the Keeneland September yearling sale is going to wind up at the end of its 14-day run next Monday.
At the current rate, the final numbers for this year’s Keeneland auction will show gross sales of approximately $190,000,000, the lowest figure since 1998, when total sales reached $169,811,800. The difference between 2009 and 1998, however, is that the numbers were ascending then; the $169.8 million total represented what was then an all-time Keeneland September record and the seventh consecutive year of gains. (Click here for a summary of Keeneland sale history.)
This year’s projected sale-ending average is $65,000, also the lowest since 1998, when the average was $59,475, also a new September sale record. This year’s projected median, $25,000, is identical to the median of 2001. The decline in average price from 2008’s September sale is projected to be 28.6%, slightly higher than the 25% I predicted during a presentation in February to the Kentucky Thoroughbred Farm Managers’ Club. A number of concerned breeders said that night they thought 25% was optimistic—and they were right. The 28.6% decline is exacerbated by unprecedented buyback rates during each of the first six sessions ranging from 30.1% to 41.2%.
If these projections hold up, breeders will have suffered roughly $200 million in losses since the sale’s highwater mark in 2006, when gross receipts reached $399,791,800. That year’s average price, $112,427, was another record for September, as was the $45,000 median.
2009 KEENELAND SEPTEMBER YEARLING SALE-FIRST SIX SESSIONS, PLUS SALE-END PROJECTIONS
| Day |
No. Sold |
Gross Sales |
Change vs. 2008 |
Average |
Change vs. 2008 |
Median |
Change vs. 2008 |
RNA |
| 9/14 |
107 |
$24,949,000 |
-55.5% |
$233,168 |
-35.9% |
$200,000 |
-33.3% |
41.2% |
| 9/15 |
115 |
$33,807,000 |
-41.0% |
$293,974 |
-25.1% |
$250,000 |
-16.7% |
35.0% |
| 9/16 |
229 |
$32,718,000 |
-35.6% |
$142,873 |
-24.1% |
$100,000 |
-37.5% |
34.8% |
| 9/17 |
252 |
$26,185,500 |
-35.4% |
$103,911 |
-31.6% |
$75,000 |
-40.0% |
30.6% |
| 9/19 |
238 |
$18,439,500 |
-39.9% |
$77,477 |
-29.3% |
$60,000 |
-33.3% |
33.5% |
| 9/20 |
255 |
$14,843,000 |
-45.2% |
$91,542 |
-36.4% |
$45,000 |
-35.7% |
30.1% |
| Cumulative |
1,196 |
$150,942,000 |
-42.5% |
$126,206 |
-32.1% |
$80,000 |
-36.0% |
N/A |
| Sale-End Projection |
2,950 |
$190,000,000 |
-42.1% |
$65,000 |
-28.6% |
$25,000 |
-32.4% |
 |
This year’s prices are all the more devastating when you take into account that breeders almost certainly invested more money in aggregate stud fees to produce these yearlings because of the record, inflated yearling market of 2006. The prospects for 2010 yearling sales are not bright, either, since those horses were produced from 2008 fees; it was not until earlier this year that many stallions operations significantly reduced stud fees.
How will this year’s September sale affect the broodmare market when Keeneland hosts its November breeding stock sale in less than two months? Because the global financial markets collapsed midway through the 2008 September sale, it didn’t have that severe an impact on yearling prices, but it was felt at the 2008 November sale, where the average price of broodmares was down 48.5% from the previous year(from $125,581 to $64,695). That was the most significant single-year drop in average price of mares in the history of the Keeneland November sale; the next closest came in 1990, when the average fell by 40%, from $78,883 to $47,109. However, over a seven-year period, from the market peak of 1985 to the bottoming out in 1992, the average price of Keeneland November broodmares plunged by 61%.
Keeneland’s broodmare market has fallen nearly that far already, but I’m not sure the bottom is yet in sight. As the size of the foal crop comes down even further (and it’s dropped 18% in two years), expect the market to be flooded with mares breeders no longer want nor can afford to keep. That means prices will decline even further, perhaps to a level similar to the early 1990s.
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Tags: Keeneland, keeneland november breeding stock sale, keeneland september yearling sale, Thoroughbred Auctions, Thoroughbred breeding, thoroughbred broodmares, thoroughbred marketplace, thoroughbred racing and breeding, thoroughbred sales Posted in Breeding, Keeneland, Thoroughbred Auctions, Thoroughbred Business | 20 Comments »
Wednesday, September 16th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
“The best business in the horse industry right now is silks manufacturing,†someone said to me Tuesday afternoon as officials were tallying up the final numbers from the two select sessions of the 14-day Keeneland September yearling sale. “There are a lot of breeders out there who don’t have racing silks but are going to need them.â€
Gallows humor comes in handy at times like these.
This industry player was referring to the high percentage of yearlings bought back by their consignors during the sale—137, or 38.2% of the 357 horses offered—the highest ever during these two days that set the stage for the marathon auction and define the “top end†of the yearling market (a top end that, by the way, had fewer million-dollar yearlings, three, than at any time September sale since two sold in 1997). The prices of many of the 222 yearlings that sold were tough to swallow: the average price of $264,667 was a 30.0% decline from the $377,857 average in 2008, and the median took a similar dive of 28.3% from $300,000 to $215,000.
In many cases, hammer prices were not enough to pay the stud fee breeders had invested to conceive the foal in 2007, much less help pay for their investment in the mare, the cost of raising a foal for 18 months, and getting it prepped for the yearling market.
But many of those breeders have been here before.
The last time the bottom fell out of the Thoroughbred bloodstock market with this severity was a little over 20 years ago, when cracks started appearing in a rapidly growing marketplace that had been fueled in part by new money from Dubai and increasing investment from Europe. Speculators saw Thoroughbred breeding as “easy money,†thanks in part to forgiving tax laws and generous bankers. The North American foal crop soared skyward with bloodstock prices, going from 28,809 in 1976 to 51,296 in 1986, an increase of 78%.
But tax reform in 1986 chased many of the speculators away, and a strong stock market correction in October 1987 took care of the rest, and the down cycle seemed to last forever. North American yearling sales that had generated $383.7 million in revenue in 1984 crashed to $181 million by 1992, a fall of 53% in funds going to breeders. The foal crop followed those bloodstock prices south, falling by 32% over a 10-year period, bottoming out in 1995 at 34,983.
But then, like the Phoenix rising from the ashes, the bloodstock market had its biggest sustained rally in history. Demand, fueled again by broad international participation and unprecedented wealth generation in the business world and stock markets, increased in the latter part of the 1990s and into the 21st century. It wasn’t long before gross receipts from North American yearling sales more than doubled from the 1992 nadir, reaching $440.1 million in 1999, falling backwards slightly for a few years (remember the dot.com bubble bursting in March of 2000?), then hitting an all-time high of $579.4 million in 2006. It has stumbled the last two years and is expected to take a deep drop by year’s end.
The North American foal crop crept upward since the late 1980s’ crash, too, reaching 38,019 in 2006, a more sensible growth of 9% over the 11 years since it bottomed out in 1995. Supply almost always lags behind demand.
Now we find ourselves in a new down cycle, caused by both outside forces (the global economic crisis, stock market volatility, business failures) and greater uncertainty about the future of horse racing (greater competition from casinos, online gambling, falling pari-mutuel handle, shrinking retention of revenues by racetracks and purses from handle, lack of coordinated national programs to market the sport,  etc.). Breeders saw the writing on the wall last year, reducing the number of mares bred in both 2008 and 2009, to the point where the Jockey Club predicts a 2010 foal crop of 30,000, a significant drop of 18% in just two years.
That 18% reduction is probably not enough. Demand for Thoroughbreds seems to be dropping faster, and with tracks in California, Illinois, Florida, Kentucky and other states running fewer days, there will be even less need for racehorses in future years (not that the tracks will have to order starting gates with more stalls). Supply must come down further.
The big question among breeders when I first came to Kentucky in 1988 and started covering horse sales was, “Have we hit bottom yet?†The truth is, no one knew the answer then, and no one knows the answer today. There are different forces in play now; a disconnect between the racing and breeding markets existed during the run-up in bloodstock prices during the 1990s and 2000s, and that disconnect appears to be gone.
In the meantime, breeders, at least those who are able to weather the current storm, might want to order their racing silks. In the good old days, it was the racehorse owners who were getting into the breeding business. Now we’re going 180 degrees in the opposite direction.
Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report
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Tags: bloodstock market, dubai, Keeneland, keeneland september yearling sale, Thoroughbred Auctions Posted in Keeneland, Thoroughbred Auctions | 37 Comments »
Tuesday, September 15th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
At the suggestion of a Paulick Report reader who thinks the market declines at Monday’s opening session of the Keeneland September yearling sale were overstated, we’ve done a comparison that includes figures from the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale from 2008 and 2009 and the first day of Keeneland from both years.So before we begin Tuesday’s live blog from Keeneland, we’ll spend a few minutes going over those numbers.
The assumption, and one repeated by more than a few people on the sale grounds, is that Keeneland lost some of its book one yearlings to the Saratoga sale, which was revitalized this year by Fasig-Tipton’s new, deep-pocketed owner, Dubai-based Synergy Investments. With a lot of help from Sheikh Mohammed, friend of the new owner and the industry’s leading buyer, the Saratoga sale jumped 45.6% in gross receipts and 11.1% in average, defying the trends at nearly every other Thoroughbred auction. The sale ended up with an average of $328,434, 29% higher than the opening day’s average at Keeneland. Last year’s Saratoga average was $295,738, 18.7% lower than the opening day average at Keeneland.
Do we have something of a role reversal under way?
Adding last year’s Saratoga numbers to the 2008 opening session at Keeneland gives us a total of 276 yearlings sold (122 at Saratoga, 154 at Keeneland) for $94,127,000 ($38,080,000 at Saratoga, $56,047,000 at Keeneland), an average blended price of $341,039.
This year’s two sessions of Saratoga and the opening session of Keeneland saw a combined 267 yearlings sell (160 Saratoga, 107 Keeneland) for $77,498,500 ($52,549,500 Saratoga, $24,949,000 Keeneland), an average price of $290,257.
Thus, the gross revenue from these three select sessions is down 17.7% from 2008 and the average has declined by 14.9%.
I’m not trying to sugarcoat what happened Monday. For those who remember the late 1980s and early ‘90s, yesterday’s session was reminiscent of that era when many breeders were selling yearlings for less than the stud fee invested in them–just cutting their losses. The difference today is that the racing industry, the economic engine at the foundation of Thoroughbred breeding, is lurching through troubled waters. The economics of horse ownership are worse today than they were in the late 1980s, and the crisis within the global economy only makes matters more dire.
Incidentally, just because Sheikh Mohammed stepped up his investments at Saratoga, it didn’t mean there was any slowdown for him at Keeneland. His agent, John Ferguson, led all buyers Monday with 14 bought for $5,152,000, and it will be interesting to see if any of the other foreign-based purchases will end up carrying his Darley or Godolphin colors on the track.
Here are a few addition numbers to ponder:
Taylor Made, Monday’s leading consignor, offered 38 yearlings, and half were bought back and listed as RNA. Eaton Sales (excluding the five Overbrook yearlings that sold without reserves) offered 16 and bought nine back. Three Chimneys offered eight and bought five back. Some smaller consignments like Chesapeake (3 offered), Man o’ War (three) and Middlebrook Farm (2) bought all their horses back.
A few consignors had better luck: Brereton Jones offered six and bought back just one. Gainesway sold four of five offered; Lane’s End sold 14 of 18 and Warrendale sold all four, and Claiborne, Narvick and T. Wayne Sweezey and partners all were 3-for-3 in sales from their Monday offerings.
Will a reset button change things Tuesday? Geoffrey Russell, Keeneland’s director of sales, said his staff believes there are some potential breakout yearlings catalogued today, but he said the same thing about Monday’s book.
We’ll find out soon enough.
11:40 a.m. … Today’s live blog is just like the sale itself–a bit slow to get going. I spent the first hour wandering the grounds and talking with buyers and consignors, and there are very few optimists in this crowd. The negative forces at work include the global economy, market volatility, the credit squeeze, the disappearance of investment money for pinhookers, troubles in the racing industry, a shortage of new owners and departure of some existing ones…you name it. One horseman who buys and sells, after perusing Monday’s results sheet, said: “We should be bowing to Sheikh Mohammed for doing his best to hold this sale up. If it wasn’t for him–and he’s buying horses through other agents besides John Ferguson–it would be a lot worse than it already is, and it’s bad enough.”
Speaking of Sheikh Mohammed, he helped break through the seven-figure ceiling that seemed almost a psychological barrier for the first 245 Hips catalogued. Standing alongside the ruler of Dubai, Ferguson signed the ticket for a $1 million filly by Unbridled’s Song out of the Strawberry Road mare, Strawberry Reason, consigned by Stone Farm as agent. The filly is a half sister to champion Vindication.
12:10 p.m. … Last year’s second session of the Keeneland September yearling sale was a bit stronger in average price than the first day, with 146 yearlings selling for $57,310,000, an average price of $392,534 and a median of $300,000.
The cumulative figures for the first two days in 2008 were: 300 sold for $113,357,000, an average of $377,857 and a median of $300,000.
So far in today’s second session, including the first 40 catalogued, 22 yearlings have sold for $6,600,000, an average of $300,000 and median of $247,500 (the average includes the only $1 million horse sold thus far). There have been 12 RNAs, 35.3% (at an average price of $156,667), somewhat better than Monday’s opening session. The average and median are both up from Monday, too, but still significantly down from 2008.
12:30 p.m. … With the two select sessions nearly 65% complete (Hips 1-268 of the 418 catalogued), here are the cumulative numbers (comparable figures are listed above in the 12:10 p.m. update): 141 sold sold for $34,294,000, an average of $243,220 and median price of $200,000. The number bought back stands at 95, or 40.3% of those through the ring. Today’s RNAs are running at 37%.
2:20 p.m. … Here’s a new one. Hip 296, an Elusive Quality colt that was selected for book one of the Keeneland sale, left the ring without a single bid being made on it. I haven’t seen that before during the select sessions. A short time earlier, when Hip 280, a Giant’s Causeway colt, left the ring, he sold for just $5,000. It’s an unforgiving market.
Through Hip 310 (the session ends at Hip 418), the average for Tuesday was $270,756 and the median was identical to Monday’s $200,000. There have been 32 RNAs, a buyback rate of 36%. The buybacks have averaged $153,563. Today’s average is down 31% from 2008’s comparable session. It’s improved, but it’s hard to find many smiling faces around here.
2:35 p.m. … That was a pleasant deja vu. John Magnier vs. Sheikh Mohammed, just like in the days of old. The two international Thoroughbred giants hooked up in the first battle royal of the sale, Hip 342, a Storm Cat colt out of the Indian Charlie mare Fleet Indian, consigned by Taylor Made Sales Agency on behalf of the Summer Wind Farm of Frank and Jane Lyons, brought a final bid of $2,050,000 from Sheikh Mohammed and agent Ferguson, who were standing out back in their usual spot. Magnier, who is usually just a few paces behind the sheikh’s entourage by the horse path near the back ring, had slipped inside the pavilion to do his bidding, according to sources. The final price more than doubled the sale’s previous high of $1 million. The colt is the first foal out of Fleet Indian, a winner of 13 of 19 starts and champion older mare in North America.
3:20 p.m. … How would this sale be going without Sheikh Mohammed? His agent, John Ferguson, has signed 15 tickets Tuesday for yearlings totaling $7,830,000, roughly one-third of the day’s gross receipts. That brings Sheikh Mohammed’s two-day total to 29 yearlings purchased in the name of Ferguson, plus an unspecified number that may have been bought through associates and other agents. The $2,050,000 sale-topping Storm Cat colt has helped increase the day’s average to $289,720 from 82 lots sold. The receipts so far total $23,757,000. There have been 42 RNAs from the first 124 through the ring, a percentage of 33%. The median is $222,500.
3:45 p.m. … With about 30 horses left to sell, here are the cumulative numbers for the first two days of the Keeneland September yearling sale: 198 sold for $50,961,000, an average price of $257,379 and median of $210,000. There have been 52 yearlings withdrawn and 123 listed as RNAs, a cumulative buyback rate of 38.3%. (For comparison with 2008’s select sessions, see today’s blog update at 12:10 p.m.)
It is almost certain the average for the two Keeneland select sessions will fall below the $328,434 average price of Fasig-Tipton’s 2009 Saratoga sale. That’s the first time since 1999 that Saratoga’s yearling sale average topped the select sessions at Keeneland September. Back in 1999, however, Keeneland still had a July select yearling sale where many of the top offerings were sold. That sale was suspended in 2003.
We’ll  report on the final numbers around 6 p.m.
6:15 p.m. … “It’s a reflection of the world…it speaks for itself,” Keeneland’s director of sales Geoffrey Russell said after the final hammer came down on the two select sessions of the 2009 Keeneland September yearling sale. The numbers on Tuesday’s second session improved across the board from Monday, but the comparisons to previous years and the cold, hard facts left many breeders reeling.
The number sold over the two days, 222, was down 26% from last year’s 300 sold, Gross receipts of $58,756,000 reflected a 48.2% drop from 2008’s $113,357,000. The average of $264,667 was a decline of 30.0% from $377,857 last yeawr and the median price, $215,000, fell 28.3% from $300,000 in 2008.
There were 137 horses bought back by consignors from the 359 through the ring, an RNA rate of 38.2%, up substantially from the 30.1% buybacks in 2008.
Tuesday’s comparative figures with 2008 were 115 sold for $33,807,000, an average of $293,974 and median price of $250,000. Those numbers represent a 41% decline in gross receipts, a 25.1% drop in average and a $16.7% fall in median from 2008’s 146 sold for $57,310,000, an average of $392,534 and median of $300,000. Tuesday’s 62 buybacks were 35% of the 177 offered, up slightly from the 32.1% RNAs at the second session in 2008.
There were three seven-figure yearlings sold Tuesday (none Monday), topped by the $2,050,000 Storm Cat colt purchased by Sheikh Mohammed’s agent, John Ferguson, the leading buyer of the select sessions with 31 purchases totaling $13,460,000. It was the fewest million-dollar yearlings sold at the September sale since 1997, when two brought seven figures.
Ferguson told the Paulick Report that Sheikh Mohammed purchased additional horses through other agents, including Blandford Bloodstock, the sale’s fourth leading buyer (11 for $2,742,000) but that he was uncertain of the total number. Ferguson said he would attend at least a portion of Wednesday’s first non-select session before leaving Lexington.
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Combining the two days of the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga select yearling sale in August with the Keeneland September select session, there were 382 yearlings sold in 2009, compared with 422 last year. The 2009 combined average of the two sales was $291,375, a decline of 18.8%. Gross receipts in 2009 were $111,305,500, a 26.5% drop from the combined FT Saratoga and Keeneland September select gross of $151,437,000 last year.In 2008, Keeneland’s market share of the combined gross receipts with FT Saratoga was 74.9%, with FT’s share at 25.1%. When the results of this year’s top two yearling sales were finalized, Keeneland’s market share fell to 52.8% with FT at 47.2%. For the first time since 1999, the FT Saratoga sale resulted in higher average prices than the select sessions at the Keeneland September sale.Â
The Paulick Report will have further analysis of the select sessions on Wednesday morning.
Book two yearlings sell Wednesday and Thursday, beginning at 10 a.m. Friday is an off day, followed by 10 consecutive days of selling starting Saturday.
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Tags: 2009 keeneland september yearling sale, eaton sales, fasig-tipton, fasig-tipton saratoga, geoffrey russell, Keeneland, keeneland september yearling sale, overbrook farm, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick, sheikh mohammed, synergy investments, taylor made sales agency, Thoroughbred Auctions, Thoroughbred breeding Posted in Keeneland, Thoroughbred Auctions, Thoroughbred Business, fasig-tipton | 30 Comments »
Monday, September 14th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
The world was a different place in the first half of 2007, when Thoroughbred breeders finalized the matings that resulted in the 5,000-plus yearlings to be led into the Keeneland sale ring, starting this morning at 10 a.m. and continuing over the next two weeks in what is this industry’s biggest marketplace of its kind.
The Paulick Report will be at Keeneland, providing live blog coverage throughout the day during Monday and Tuesday’s select sessions.
When the 2007 breeding season began, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flirting with the 14,000 level. Unemployment in the United States was at 4.5%. Financial institutions like Lehman Brothers were solvent. Automakers General Motors and Chrysler, while being outperformed by foreign companies, were not teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. Most Americans had not heard of the term “sub-prime mortgages.†Pari-mutuel wagering on Thoroughbred racing, the economic engine that drives the horse business in North America, was coming off a year of modest growth. The 2006 Keeneland September sales had a blockbuster year, buoying the spirits and pocketbooks of breeders and consignors, and those many other businesses that feed off them.
Then, one year ago, this country was pitched into the depths of a major economic crisis that affected nearly every financial market in the world. It bubbled over in the middle of the 2008 Keeneland September sale, and the ripple effects of this crisis touched everything in our lives. The Dow Jones average plunged, eventually dropping below 6,600 before inching back upwards in recent months to its current level of 9,600. Market capitalization of companies and net worth of individuals plummeted as a result. Businesses failed, led by financial institutions like Lehman Brothers and automakers like GM and Chrysler, leading to government bailouts. Unemployment doubled to its current 9.7%. And in our little corner of the world, the pari-mutuel racing business, handle will have fallen from 2006 levels by almost 20% by the end of this year.
Is it any wonder Thoroughbred breeders are nervous about how their goods will be received at this marathon auction? Even in the “good old days†of 2007, the Keeneland September sale suffered declines from the record average of $112,427 in 2006, and by the end of the 2008 sale, prices had fallen by 19% from 2006 levels. Making matters that much tougher for breeders today is the fact their 2009 yearlings were produced from record or near-record high stud fees, which were driven north by those sky-high sale prices of 2006.
We don’t expect the results of the Keeneland sale to paint a pretty picture. However, the sport of racing continues to hold a grip on people who might not be able to afford an NFL team or Major League Baseball franchise but enjoy the competitive nature of seeing who owns the fastest horse. It’s a game that intrigues sheikhs, princes, and titans of industry, along with individuals of far more modest means who all share the same passion: the Thoroughbred racehorse. It’s a cyclical business, and we’re in a down cycle right now. The only questions are how deep is the bottom and how long till we get there. The next couple of weeks should help answer those questions.ring
10:15 a.m. … The day’s first piece of good news. At 10:05, Sheikh Mohammed, the ruler of Dubai and the industry’s leading buyer of Thoroughbreds, popped out of a black Escalade, with an entourage of eight in tow, including his wife, Princess Haya, and bloodstock agent John Ferguson. There had been some speculation that the sheikh, who was on the sale grounds looking at horses over the weekend, may have left for his home and would not attend the auction personally. He always seems to spend more money when he’s here, so his presence is indeed welcome news for all horse sellers. Ferguson, the sheikh and his wife ducked into a private meeting room, presumably to plan their strategy for the day. He had a cell phone glued to his ear the entire time, suggesting there may be some business to attend to at home.
The second sighting of the day wasn’t quite as positive. Eddie Musselman, who publishes the Indian Charlie newsletter, was standing by the front entrance. “Hello, Eddie,” I said to him as I walked by. “Hey, Crackpipe,” he said. Funny guy, huh?
11:45 a.m. … Yearling sales almost always get off to a slow start, especially in such a volatile economy, and this one’s no exception. Of the first 14 through the ring, seven were bought back by consignors, including three of the first four. John Ferguson made his first purchase of the sale, Hip 9, a Storm Cat colt from the Overbrook Farm dispersal consigned by Eaton Sales. Ferguson signed the ticket on behalf of Sheikh Mohammed for $360,000. A bigger number came Ferguson, standing alongside the sheikh, bought Hip 39, a Speightstown colt from Gerry Dilger’s Dromoland Farm, for $700,000. Dilger is riding the wave of publicity generated from the Grade 1 successes of two of his 2008 yearling sale graduates, Spinaway winner Hot Dixie Chick (which he co-bred with Peter Blum) and Hopeful winner Dublin.
12:10 p.m. … The early results show a pretty stiff drop in prices. Of the first 41 yearlings catalogued, there were eight withdrawn from the sale and 15 listed as not sold or Reserve Not Attained. New this year, Keeneland is offering bidding on the RNAs, and the results sheets have a link permitting buyers to submit an online bid.Â
Of the 18 that sold from the 33 through the ring (45.4% RNA), the average price is $228,444Â and the median $182,500. That’s a big drop from the 2008 opening session when the average price was $363,942 and the median was $300,000. But it’s very early to base anything from these numbers.
3:20 p.m. … It’s not so early anymore, and the numbers are not looking good for the first session. Of the first 125 yearlings catalogued, 62 sold for an average of $234,629 and a medican price of $205,000. There have been 49 RNAs, or 44.1%, and 14 have been withdrawn. No horses have yet reached seven figures. Those numbers are substantially worse in all categories than the opening session in 2008 (down 35% in average, 32% in median).
John Ferguson has signed the tickets on nine yearlings for $3,490,000, or roughly 24% of the gross through the first 125 catalogued.
4:00 p.m. … The RNA rate has dropped only slightly, to 41.5%, through the first 146 catalogued hips. The average of the 76 sold is at $230,315 and the median is $192,500 from a gross of $17,504,000.. The top price is the $925,000 paid by Coolmore agent Demi O’Byrne for Hip 141, an Unbridled’s Song colt out of Goulash, the dam of champion Ashado.Â
The RNA average is $185,778, including the $900,000 buyback price for a Distorted Humor colt out of the Unbridled’s Song mare Forest Music. The colt was consigned by Jess Jackson’s Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings.Â
Ferguson has purchased 13 of the 76 sold for $4,530,000 to pace all buyers.
4:15 p.m. … “In a word, it’s bad,” one consignor told me as the sale’s first day was entering the final 20 hips. “There’s not much depth right now, and you have to remember that as many as 50 of the first-book horses ended up in the Saratoga catalogue. Those horses had to come from somewhere, the most of them would have sold here in the first two days.”
The two-day Fasig-Tipton select sale of yearlings in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., wound up with an average price of $328,434, thanks in large part to the impropved catalogue under the new ownership of Sheikh Mohammed’s associate that bought the company. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but it will be interested to review the history of the two sales–Saratoga and the first two days of Keeneland September–and see when the last time was that Saratoga had the higher average of the two.
4:30 p.m. … Right now, absent some big horses selling at the end, the average price will be in the $225,000 range and the median will be around $195,000. That’s a drop of as much as 38% in average and 35% in median. The RNAs are at 42.2%, or 62 of the 147 through the ring. Business is brisk in the bar area, though.
I’ll have the final numbers and some comments around 6 p.m.
6:00 p.m. … Monday’s first session ended with predictable business declines across the board, but they were even worse than Keeneland’s director of sales Geoffrey Russell anticipated. The number of yearlings sold, 107, was down 30.5% from the 154 that sold on 2008’s first day, and the gross, $24,949,000, was a jaw-dropping decline of 55.5% from last year’s $56,047,000. The average price of $233,168 was down 35.9% from 2008, when the average was $363,942, and the $200,000 median represented a 33.3% decline from 2008’s $300,000. “The pendulum has swung on the buyer’s side,” Russell told reporters after the final horse through the ring had sold. He used words like “hesitant” and “careful” to describe their bidding. “It was tough out there,” he said. “Readjustments are never easy, and we are in the middle of a major readjustment.”
The percentage of RNAs, or horses not sold, was 41.2%, a big jump from the 29% unsold on last year’s first day.
That readjustment may have begun two years, at the 2007 Keeneland September sale. The 2007 sale had a tough act to follow, since the overall 2006 sale set an all-time record for gross, average and median prices. The opening day of the 2006 sale had an average price of $471,872 (which actually was down from 2005’s $539,264). Opening day fell to $394,123 in 2007 and the aforementioned $363,942 last year. That’s a decline of 56,8% from 2005 till today.
Worse, the total dollars going into the pockets of breeders fell from $88,712,000 on the first day in 2005 to $24,949,000 today. That’s a $64 million question: How is this 71.9% decline in gross receipts from one day going to affect the business?
There were zero $1 million or more yearlings sold Monday, marking the first time since day one of 1996 that the opening session failed to bring a seven-figure yearling. By comparison there were 21 million-dollar babies sold on day one in 2005.
John Ferguson was the day’s leading buyer, with 14 purchases totaling $4,830,000. Blandford Bloodstock bought eight for $1,842,000, D. Wayne Lukas’s client Westrock Stables LLC bought three for $1,285,000, Sheikh Hamdan’s Shadwell Estate Company Ltd. bought two for $1,230,000, and Coolmore agent Demi O’Byrne bought two for $1,065,000.
Keeneland’s online bidding for RNA’s attracted a “few bids,” Russell said, but he was unaware that any of the unsold horses had yet found new homes through this new process.
If there is a sliver of good news from these grim statistics, it’s that Keeneland consignors only had to pay a 2.5% commission on RNAs, down from the 4.5% the sale company had been charging. The aggregate cost of Monday’s RNAs was $14.5 million, and under the old 4.5% formula consignors would have paid a commission of $652,500. At 2.5%, consignors paid just $362,500, a different of $290,000 that Keeneland will not be charging and that instead will stay with consignors. Good news for consignors, but that’s not enough of a silver lining to make the dark clouds of this market look any less ominous than they did today.
 Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report
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Tags: Keeneland, keeneland september yearling sale, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick, thoroughbred breeders, Thoroughbred breeding Posted in Keeneland, Live Blogs, Thoroughbred Auctions | 17 Comments »
Thursday, September 10th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
Keeneland’s September yearling sale is the largest auction of its kind in the world, serving as a marketplace for all levels of participants in the Thoroughbred industry, from the rich and famous who fly into Lexington in their private jets for the early select sessions to the blue-collar horsemen who pull a two-horse trailer into town behind their pickup trucks at the tail end of the marathon sale.
This year’s 14-day Keeneland September sale begins on Monday, Sept. 14 and runs through Sept. 28. Friday, Sept. 18 is a dark day. There are over 5,000 yearlings catalogued to this year’s sale.
Because it is the largest Thoroughbred yearling sale in the world, it should come as no surprise that the Keeneland September sale has more of its graduates win American Graded Stakes than any other auction. The Keeneland September sale has produced 66 AGS winners of 2009, five times as many as any other Thoroughbred auction. It accounts for 38.4% of the 172 AGS winners of 2009 that were sold at public auction. (The figures represent only those horses that sold and do not include RNAs.)
The most surprising thing to me about the Keeneland September graduates that went on to win an AGS race in 2009 is the number of horses that sold for relatively low prices. Unbridled Belle, winner of the Grade 3 Obeah Stakes at Delaware Park, was the biggest bargain, selling for $4,000 at the 2004 Keeneland September sale. Zensational, winner of three consecutive Grade 1 races and the likely favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, was a $20,000 yearling purchase. A total of 20 AGS winners of 2009 brought prices of $50,000 or less at the Keeneland September sale. At the other end of the spectrum is the $3.9 million Storm Cat colt, Mr. Sidney, who won the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile at Keeneland this spring.
The 66 AGS winners that sold at Keeneland September had an average price of $254,621 and a median of $115,000.
Because it serves as a marketplace for such a wide range of yearlings in terms of the quality of their pedigrees, the percentage of Keeneland September graduates that win an AGS race is lower than that of some other Thoroughbred auctions. Since the AGS winners of 2009 sold in different years, we’ll arbitrarily use 2007 as a benchmark for calculating the percentage (the same year was applied to consignors of sale horses in last week’s American Graded Stakes Standings brought to you by Keeneland). There were 3,799 yearlings sold at the 2007 Keeneland September sale, and the 66 AGS winners that were bought at a Keeneland September auction represent 1.7% of that figure.
By comparison, Fasig-Tipton’s select sales in Kentucky in July and at Saratoga in August, which select yearlings based on pedigree and conformation, had 3.3% and 7.0% AGS winners of 2009, respectively, using the number sold in 2007. The average price of FT July’s 12 AGS winners of 2009 was $141,500 and the median was $150,000. FT Saratoga select has produced 10 AGS winners of 2009; their average sale price was $431,000 and median was $330,000.
The Keeneland November breeding stock sale has had 12 of its graduates (10 weanlings, two horses of racing age) win AGS races in 2009. Their average was $415,083, buoyed by the world record price $1.7-million weanling, Mi Sueno (winner of the Grade 1 Darley Debutante last week), and the $2.4 million Mushka, who sold as a 3-year-old at last year’s Keeneland November sale. The median price of the 12 AGS winners sold at Keeneland November was $79,500.
Rounding out the auctions that have produced the most 2009 AGS winners are a pair of 2-year-old sales, Fasig-Tipton’s Midlantic May sale and the OBS March sale, with eight each. FT Midlantic’s eight AGS winners sold for an average price of $130,125 and median of $92,500, and the eight OBS March AGS winners sold for an average of $256,875 and median of $260,000. Using the number of 2-year-olds sold at their 2007 sales, the FT Midlantic AGS winners represent 2.3% of the number sold and the OBS March winners 3.2%.
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Tags: american graded stakes, American Graded Stakes Standings, darley debutante, fasig-tipton, Fasig-Tipton Midlantic, Keeneland, keeneland september yearling sale, Maker's Mark Mile, Mr. Sidney, Mushka, Obeah Stakes, obs, OBS March, ocala, saratoga, unbridled belle, yearling sales, Zensational Posted in American Graded Stakes Standings, Keeneland | 2 Comments »
Tuesday, June 9th, 2009
The following press was distributed by Keeneland Association regarding the dispersal later this year of the breeding stock and a majority of the racing stock of Overbrook Farm, the Lexington Thoroughbred operation founded by the late William T. Young.
Lexington, Ky. (June 9, 2009)—Overbrook Farm, founded and developed by the late William T. Young into one of North America’s most successful breeding establishments, announced today that it will completely disperse its Thoroughbred yearlings, breeding stock and the majority of its horses in training, beginning at Keeneland’s September Yearling Sale.
“Over a period of more than 30 years my father developed Overbrook Farm into one of the most successful and respected breeding operations in the world,” said Bill Young Jr. “The decision to disperse is a personal one that came after a great deal of thought. I simply don’t have the same passion for the Thoroughbred sport that my father did, despite my respect for the business.”
Overbrook Farm, which is located outside of Lexington, bred, raced and has been the home of perennially leading sire Storm Cat, who was pensioned last year.
“The retirement of Storm Cat ended a phenomenal era at Overbrook,” continued Young. “The dispersal will give buyers a unique opportunity to purchase families that previously have not been available commercially.”
Overbrook has bred and raced a long list of champions, classic and Breeders’ Cup winners including 1996 Kentucky Derby victor Grindstone and 1999 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Cat Thief along with champions Boston Harbor, Flanders, Golden Attraction and Surfside. Overbrook also bred and raced dual classic winner Tabasco Cat, in addition to racing champion Preakness winner Timber Country and Belmont winner Editor’s Note.
Overbrook received an Eclipse Award in 1994 as outstanding breeder. The farm has bred 113 stakes winners including 62 group/graded stakes winners–21 group/grade 1.
Approximately 200 horses will comprise the dispersal. It will include approximately 75 broodmares, 50 weanlings, 50 yearlings and 20 to 30 horses of racing age. Bill Young said Overbrook will continue to campaign a small racing stable under the direction of his son, Chris.
“Our goal is to lease the farm as a Thoroughbred operation,” continued Bill Young.
The dispersal, with Eaton Sales as agent, will begin with the sale of yearlings at Keeneland’s annual September Sale, which will start September 14. Weanlings, broodmares and horses of racing age will be sold during the November Breeding Stock Sale. The dispersal will continue during the January Horses of All Ages Sale.
“The late W. T. Young established a tradition of excellence at Overbrook,” said Keeneland President Nick Nicholson. “ Keeneland had the privilege of selling many sons and daughters of the great Storm Cat. Now we have the opportunity to offer our buyers horses from the outstanding Overbrook families.”
Tags: bill young, cat thief, eaton sales, editor's note, flanders, golden attraction, grindstone, Keeneland, keeneland september yearling sale, overbrook farm, storm cat, surfside, tabasco cat, thoroughbred racing and breeding, timber country, william t. young Posted in Dispersals, Thoroughbred Auctions | 6 Comments »
Monday, October 6th, 2008
By Ray Paulick
When Rob Whiteley managed the Foxfield commercial breeding operation for corporate raider Carl Icahn, he had to justify every dollar on the ledger sheets for the real-life Gordon Gekko. You couldn’t pull the wool over Icahn’s eyes on fiscal matters.
Today, free from Icahn, Whiteley runs his own operation, Liberation Farm, breeding and selling Thoroughbreds for the commercial market. He applies many of the lessons and disciplines he learned from his old boss. Coming out of the recent Keeneland September yearling sale, the most important marketplace for commercial breeders, Whiteley examined the profitability of the business he has dedicated himself to since leaving academia 25 years ago (his pre-racing resume includes Stanford, Rutgers, Harvard and the University of California at Berkeley).
The resulting article was published in the Thoroughbred Daily News last Friday, Oct. 3. If you haven’t read it, and you have any interest in the future of this business, Whiteley’s analysis is a must-read. (The TDN is a subscription-only site, but there is no charge for an online subscription.)
What Whiteley found may have been shocking to some, though not necessarily surprising to the many small, blue-collar breeding operations scattered across the rural landscape of Central Kentucky: breeders are bleeding red ink. Many of them face uncertain futures, even without the greater financial crisis brought on by tighter credit markets from the Wall Street/banking meltdown.
Whiteley found that fewer than one in five yearlings catalogued to the Keeneland September sale led to a break-even or profitable result for its breeder. He detailed the example of how a yearling produced through a $20,000 stud fee and selling for $70,000 at public auction (3.5 times the stud fee) does not cover all the expenses associated over the 30 months it took to plan, produce, raise and bring the horse to market.
The most profitable days of the September sale, of course, came at the front end, when not quite two of five yearlings catalogued (38% on days one and three, 37% on day two) broke even or sold for a profit. After the first eight sessions of the 15-day sale (in other words, all of the second half), profits were as thin as a Parisian runway model – the high was 14% of horses catalogued on day nine and the low 0% on day 15.
Worse, Whiteley’s expense assumptions in his profit-loss formula may be on the conservative side. He doesn’t factor in the general and administrative expenses that most businesses absorb or the three in 10 chance that a mare will have a non-productive year (barren, slipped or dead foal).
The problems breeders face are mounting. The price of hay, feed, fencing and vanning are quickly accelerating. Auction prices are retreating, and there is little being done on the national level to bring new end-users (horse owners) into racing. The industry is retracting on many fronts.
Not all breeders are affected equally. For those operations that are secondary businesses or hobbies for multi-millionaires or billionaires who inherited their money or made it in other industries, the losses may be used to write-off profits made elsewhere. Major breeders who stand high-end stallions have that lucrative end of their business to hold them up.
But where this hits especially hard is the backbone of the industry, the small mom-and-pop operations that may own a half-dozen mares, sell their best yearlings and race the rest. They don’t have income from other industries or trust funds to balance their spreadsheets, but they do, collectively, have a huge impact on the overall infrastructure of the horse industry.
Whiteley isn’t whining, and no one put to a gun to his head to buy all those mares he now owns (or co-owns with a bank). He also understands that free-market economics, and the laws of supply and demand, need to run their course. He didn’t publish his complaints without also coming up with what he believes is a short-term solution.
The article describes the industry’s “big three” as sale companies, the veterinary community and stallion owners, and suggests they will be the next group to suffer if the economics for breeders do not improve, and they are forced out of the industry. Fewer breeders will result in lower demand for stallion and veterinary services, and certainly lower profits for Keeneland and Fasig-Tipton.
Whiteley calls for an economic stimulus plan to be borne by the big three: for 2009 only, a 50% reduction in stud fees, a 50% reduction in the cost of services (and medication markup) provided by veterinarians and a 50% reduction in the commission collected by sale companies.
Of course the chances of this actually happening are somewhere between slim and none. Stallion owners will say their fees are based on demand, and veterinarians will cite their rising costs and the investments they’ve made in equipment and education. Sale companies will say they’ve got to making a living, too.
Something, somewhere has to give, or we will see a major exodus from the industry of small businesses. That won’t be good for anyone.
MORE BAD NEWS ON THE RACING FRONT. Turfway Park closed its fall meeting with significant declines in business, both on and off-track, where handle fell 18% and 20%, respectively. There were circumstances to the numbers being so far down (aren’t there always?), but they add yet another chapter to a very troubling sequence of bad economic news for the pari-mutuel side of the Thoroughbred industry.
Keeneland did a very good thing when it purchased Turfway Park and perhaps kept it from being developed for commercial use, though I’m not sure why it is necessary for the cash-rich company to have a partner in Turfway that has no interest in the success of horse racing (a casino company). Many blue-collar Kentucky breeders race their horses at Turfway Park, and the decline of the track since its purchase by Keeneland and partners has been yet another blow to those breeders, who are now shipping their horses to race out of state in increasing numbers to places like West Virginia and Pennsylvania.
Turfway needs an injection of capital and creative or intellectual investment that Keeneland so far is not providing. Investing in Turfway is one way of helping Kentucky’s breeders.
Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report
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Tags: carl icahn, commercial breeders, commercial thoroughbred market, equine veterinarians, fasig-tipton, foxfield, Horse Racing, horse sales, Keeneland, keeneland september yearling sale, liberation farm, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick, rob whiteley, tdn, thoroughbred breeders, Thoroughbred breeding, thoroughbred daily news, thoroughbred stallions, turfway park Posted in Breeding, Keeneland, Thoroughbred Auctions, Thoroughbred Business, fasig-tipton | 6 Comments »
Tuesday, September 23rd, 2008
By Ray Paulick
While Congress begins deliberations on the proposed economic bailout package that could cost taxpayers as much as $1 trillion, Thoroughbred owners and breeders are beginning to feel the effects of the turbulence on Wall Street and other world markets.
The financial markets meltdown came smack dab in the middle of the industry’s most important transactional event: the Keeneland September yearling sale. The sale began with a lowered price ceiling during opening select sessions that saw some resilience in the middle market, but, as many consignors feared, the bottom fell out after the first week. Most yearlings going through the ring in the latter part of the Keeneland sale will reflect economic losses to their owners once stud fees, mare investment and boarding costs are taken into consideration.
But those losses are minor compared to what’s happened on Wall Street, which traditionally has created much of the wealth that’s found its way into the yearling market. “If anyone is dependent on new money in the horse business, I don’t think this is going to be a very good time for them,” one business analyst told the Paulick Report.
In addition, many yearling-to-juvenile sale pinhookers from Florida depend on bank loans to fund at least a portion of their investment, and those loans or lines of credit from banks are evaporating in the current crisis that actually began last August with the sub-prime mortgage fiasco.
Loans of all kinds will be more difficult to acquire, one banker told the Paulick Report, whether it’s for pin-hooking, stallion and mare acquisitions, or real estate. “A wide range of people need bank financing to buy farms or mares,” he said. “Some people who didn’t start off thinking they wanted to borrow end up taking out loans just like any other business often does. Stallion deals are often supported by banks. No matter what you are borrowing money for, it’s harder now and it will cost more. Everything is going to be more difficult.”
In addition, the banker said, many businesses with “standing operating lines of credit” are going to feel the crunch. “There are acquisitional and seasonal businesses. Some spend money all year and collect over just a couple of weeks. Stallion or mare purchases term out over a number of years.”
The crisis could have a severe effect on the bloodstock markets at Fasig-Tipton and Keeneland in October and November, especially for mares in the $50,000 and under price range. It is expected the top end of the market, which is unlikely to establish any new records for high prices, will maintain some semblence of strength. The deadline to enter mares and weanlings in Keeneland’s massive November breeding stock sale preceded the financial market meltdown. What will be interesting to follow is the number of horses entered for Keeneland’s January sale of horses of all ages. Will breeders look ahead at cutting their losses on marginal mares and newly turned yearlings?
The credit tightening comes as uninsured money market funds have disappeared into treasury bills and other secured investments. Banks that were counting on money market dollars to buy up bonds, mortgages and other loans now require cash on hand to extend credit to their customers. That cash, in many institutions, simply doesn’t exist in abundance.
“Things that have some value in the real world, like real estate loans, have no value in the market,” one analyst said. “Assets that used to be like cash no longer are like cash.”
Many in the horse business are watching how the crisis is affecting the financially troubled Magna Entertainment ( MECA) and its real estate affiliate, MI Developments ( MID). Magna Entertainment is the racetrack operating company that is living month to month on bridge loans from MID and other creditors. Magna, controlled by Frank Stronach, owns Santa Anita Park (host of the 2008 and 2009 Breeders’ Cup) and Golden Gate Fields in California, Gulfstream Park in Florida, Pimlico and Laurel Park in Maryland, Lone Star Park in Texas, and Remington Park in Oklahoma, and several smaller tracks. Its stock, battered in recent years and recently the subject of a 1-for-20 reverse split to retain its listing on the exchange, has declined by 25% in the last five trading days, closing Monday at $4.39 per share.
Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report
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Tags: Breeders' Cup, breeding stock sales, credit tightening, fasig-tipton, Frank Stronach, horse business, Keeneland, keeneland january horses of all ages sale, keeneland november breeding stock sale, keeneland september yearling sale, magna developments, Magna Entertainment, market meltdown, meca, mid, Paulick Report, pinhookers, Ray Paulick, real estate market, stallion acquisitions, Thoroughbred breeding, wall street crisis, yearling sales Posted in Breeding, Keeneland, Magna Entertainment, Pinhooking, Thoroughbred Auctions | 9 Comments »
Monday, September 15th, 2008
Ray Paulick
What in the world is going on inside the Churchill Downs Inc. executive offices? It’s slashed purses at Calder Race Course in South Florida by 17% and whacked almost $1 million from the fall stakes program at its home track in Louisville, Ky. Key management changes have been made at Calder and Fair Grounds in New Orleans, La., and press releases seem to be blaming horsemen for most of the problems.
Investors haven’t been wild about Churchill Downs stock ( CHDN), which closed at $46.45 Friday and hasn’t seen $50 a share since May 1. It’s 52-week high, $57.55, was achieved last December.
CEO Bob Evans and the TrackNet Media Group that was formed with Magna Entertainment to broker simulcast deals has refused to talk seriously with the Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Group, which is negotiating account wagering contracts with racetracks on behalf of local horsemen’s groups such as the Kentucky or Florida Horsemen’s Benevolent and Protective Associations. In fact, Churchill has filed anti-trust lawsuits against the organizations. Evans may be hoping that the longer he puts off dealing with the THG, the less resolve the horsemen will have to stick together in attempting to forge a better contract on account wagering.
That strategy doesn’t appear to be working. To the contrary, it looks more like Churchill Downs’ partner in TrackNet Media is bailing. Frank Stronach, the chairman and acting CEO of Magna Entertainment, sent out a press release a couple of weeks ago saying that Magna recognizes the THG as a beneficial national organization and is negotiating with THG.
For too long, horsemen have been losing ground and losing revenue as the percentage of dollars wagered that goes to purses has declined. The growth of simulcasting to non-pari-mutuel entities such as off-shore rebaters and account wagering companies has been at the expense of horsemen. It’s important horsemen understand why the status quo isn’t good enough and why they need to change the simulcast model, something the THG is trying to do.
SPEAKING OF WAGERING, hats off to Bloodhorse editor Dan Liebman for calling out the Jockey Club after it capitulated to Evans and to Churchill Downs’ biggest shareholder, Dick Duchossois, and decided to no longer provide the trade magazine with meet ending pari-mutuel handle figures. Churchill tracks under Evans and Duchossois have said that handle is no longer a meaningful statistic. Oh, really?
The decision by the Jockey Club to no longer provide this key economic indicator was disgraceful, but I wouldn’t hold out any hope the poobahs there will change their mind.
NO ONE PREDICTED KEENELAND’S SEPTEMBER YEARLING SALE WOULD BE UP, so it’s not that surprising to see a 13% drop in the gross receipts through the first six sessions of the 15-day marathon. That 13% equates to a $41-million decline in revenue that will not go into the pockets of breeders this year, and that red number only figures to increase as the sale reaches the second half. The drop in revenue will ripple throughout all kinds of Thoroughbred-related businesses.
The good news from the first four days (Books 1 and 2) was that the median held up fairly well, declining only 10% from $200,000 to $180,000. The home run horses, those selling for a million dollars and up, didn’t materialize as often as they have in recent years, but the middle market was relatively steady. “Most of us survive off the middle,” one breeder told the Paulick Report. “Getting one of the big horses is like hitting the lottery, but it’s not something you really plan on.”
Smart gamblers don’t play the lottery, and intelligent breeders know there are far more people playing in the middle market than at the top. As long as the middle is healthy, so are the breeders. There is just a lot less icing on the cake this year.
Others who are selling throughout the September sale breathed a sigh of relief if their best horses sold well during the first two books out of fear that the bottom of the market may collapse once the sale reaches books five and beyond.
WHO HAS BOUGHT THE MOST HORSES SO FAR IN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER? It wasn’t John Ferguson, or Shadwell Estate or the newly formed Legends Racing. Hint: It wasn’t at the Keeneland September yearling sale.
September’s busiest buyer so far (though not biggest spender) is a fellow named Mike Gill, the 2005 Eclipse Award-winning owner who has been on a claiming binge this month at Philadelphia Park. By our count Gill has claimed at least 30 horses in September at Philadelphia Park alone after similar buying sprees in Maryland and Massachusetts earlier in the year.
You remember Gill, don’t you? He’s the fellow who built a huge claiming operation earlier this decade, bought a training center, won a bunch of claiming races and then publicly complained when he led the nation in wins and earnings in 2003 and 2004 but didn’t get voted an Eclipse Award as outstanding owner.
The whining did him some good. When balloting was conducted for the 2005 racing season, Gill was once again the owner with the most wins and purse money won. This time, in what may be the worst decision in the history of the Eclipse Awards, voters representing the National Turf Writers Association, National Thoroughbred Racing Association and Daily Racing Form gave Gill the award as “outstanding owner.”
Why do I say that it was the worst Eclipse Award decision in history? I’ve got nothing against claiming operations and recognize it is the bread and butter portion of nearly every racing program in the country. However, in my mind, the Eclipse Awards are about excellence, whether it’s horses or people. Sheer numbers, especially at the claiming level, should not be misconstrued as excellence. In the category of outstanding owner, breeder, trainer and jockey, the leading candidates should be judged by how they performed at the top level of the sport, not the bottom level.
Gill, who was recently in the news because of some regulatory problems at his mortgage company, said he was getting out of the horse industry in 2006 when he accepted his Eclipse Award as outstanding owner. Many people had two words for him: good riddance.
“I’m going to miss racing, and I think racing is going to miss me, too,” Gill told Bloodhorse magazine.
Actually, Mike, we didn’t.
THE PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER WON’T BE COVERING GILL’S EXPLOITS since it accepted the early retirement of Turf writer Craig Donnelly only a month after the paper, the nation’s eighth largest, dramatically reduced the space allotted racing in its sports section. At that time, Inquirer editors told the Paulick Report it was keeping Donnelly but obviously they had a change of heart.
Newspapers may be an endangered species in the near future. Turf writers at daily newspapers already are.
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Tags: bob evans, calder, CDI, chdn, churchill downs, claiming, craig donnelly, daily racing form, dick duchossois, eclipse award, Frank Stronach, john ferguson, Keeneland, keeneland september yearling sale, Magna, Magna Entertainment, mike gill, National Thoroughbred Racing Association, national turf writers association, NTRA, ntwa, Paulick Report, philadelphia inquirer, Philadelphia park, Ray Paulick, shadwell, thg, Thoroughbred Auctions, Thoroughbred Horsemen's Group, tracknet media Posted in Account Wagering, Churchill Downs Inc., Industry Organizations, Jockey Club, Keeneland, Magna Entertainment, Racing Media, Simulcasting, Wagering | 9 Comments »
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