SLOTS AMENDMENT ‘DEAD ON ARRIVAL’
Tuesday, October 27th, 2009By Bradford Cummings
Kentucky Republicans connected to the horse industry will find themselves in an interesting predicament next year. The always-pending slots issue has caused much consternation for those of us on the right that see this as an economic development issue and not a moral one. In a state with legal gambling on horse racing, a statewide lottery and an abundance of charitable gaming, the overused/misused word hypocrisy easily comes to mind when considering the social right’s argument.
And yet I have stayed silent on this issue publicly. Until recently, I was the chairman of the Jefferson County Republican Party (Louisville) while also working for the Paulick Report. It was a non-paying 40-hour-a-week volunteer position, and eventually I had to make a business choice and walked away after 16 months served to fully focus on the growth of this website. (Those of you who have served in volunteer political positions can attest it is a love-hate experience if you try to do it right.)
While not the reason I resigned, the slot machine issue is a perfect example of why my career will likely never head back in the direction of party politics. (That sound you just heard was the last shred of my political career flushing down the toilet…I sure hope we can turn the racing industry around!)
Part of the party game, Republican and Democratic, is to create a platform and get the entire machine to walk in the same direction while beating the same drum. I do not say this to disparage the process. To a certain extent, this sort of singular focus is necessary to get anything done politically or otherwise. Have you ever attempted to get a consensus among 30 people, 10 people or even you and your spouse? The concept of majority rules definitely serves its purpose. But it can also be incredibly destructive for those who feel passionately about an important issue.
And this is where I find some sympathy for the likes of state Sen. Damon Thayer, the Georgetown, Ky., Republican who plans to file legislation in support of a constitutional amendment to legalize slot machines at Kentucky racetracks. Damon is a friend of mine and from what I can tell, a good man trying to do right in a difficult position. Anyone who believes his actions are to help himself personally needs to consider a Kentucky state legislator only makes roughly $30,000 a year. I am not sure what his other work pays, but considering his talents and the fact he has a family to feed, the Senate job probably has less short term upside than his Thoroughbred interests.
Philosophically, I agree with the constitutional amendment. On large fundamental issues, the people’s voice should be heard from directly and I assume Damon’s intentions are to find an opportunity to give this issue a proper public hearing. But upon further review and especially with the details of his proposed legislation, I have to admit to being wrong. The statutory path is likely the only one to bring expanded gaming to the Bluegrass State.
Obviously, much of this rides on how the special election for Republican Sen. Dan Kelly’s now vacated seat turns out. The district has a heavy Democratic registration advantage and their candidate, Jodie Haydon, comes from the most populous region within its boundaries. The Republican, Jimmy Higdon, is well liked and will be a strong candidate but comes from a much less populous part of the region. In many ways, this race shapes up to be a mirror of the election this summer that went to Democrat Robin Webb by a slim margin. If history repeats itself, Kentucky will see a Senate that once had a 23 – 15 Republican advantage slip to a 20 – 18 margin (including one Independent caucusing with the Republicans) in little more than a year. With the commitment from Kentucky’s horsemen obvious, a strong case could be made that this slip may lie primarily at the feet of David Williams’ decision to go down swinging on the slots issue.
Assuming the worst for Kentucky Republicans, which is more likely? Republican Tom Buford continues to vote for slots as he did this year and one other Republican is swayed out of fear of an electoral minority after 2010, or an amendment passes by a margin of 23 – 15, meaning that three Democrats throw away the pro-slots momentum their party currently enjoys and allows Republicans to claim a victory for the horse industry? Anyone who believes Democrats will give up that power clearly does not understand the underbelly of the political system.
Additionally, the House would have to find eight more votes than it had this year and again ignore the historical boost of momentum Republicans would earn from this legislation. The Democrats who possess a super-majority in the House would have been more likely to publicly admit voting for John McCain in last year’s Presidential election.
Even more concerning though is the cost a referendum would put on the horse industry. Millions of dollars would have to be spent to win this referendum, millions of dollars many horse industry folks do not have to spend, especially after the performance of Kentucky’s Thoroughbred sales this year. The opposition would be well funded by social conservatives and other lobbying interests who would prefer to see Kentucky without slots. So while the slots issue polls well now, the political climate would be impossible to foretell. As they say, a year equals several lifetimes in politics.
Assuming this process was a success, Thayer’s amendment proposition requires passage of a local referendum in the counties with racetracks. Likely, most counties would agree to the local referendum but another year would pass, putting us into 2012 before slot machines could be seriously considered. That time frame doesn’t take into account the bidding and licensing process. And if my interpretation of the proposed legislation is correct, racetracks may have to compete with other potential gaming outfits to secure the franchise rights, and might end up without VLTs. While money would still be earmarked for purses, the tracks would suffer if that occurred.
But at least you don’t have to worry about that worst-case scenario happening. This would never get out of the Kentucky House. As Senate Democratic leader Ed Worley, it would be “dead on arrival.”
