Posts Tagged ‘Joe Drape’

New York Times sports writer Joe Drape takes a look at the highlights and low-lights of racing during the ‘aughts’. From the successes of Azeri, Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta to the lows of Barbaro’s breakdown and Big Brown’s chemical enhancements, to some of the Triple Crown near misses, it was a mixed bag of a decade for racing.

Read what Joe has to say here and then come back to the Paulick Report and let us know what you think.

- Bradford Cummings

While Ray is traveling back from Osaka (hopefully we won’t have to hear too much about jet lag once he returns to the United States), he wanted to reignite the debate over Horse of the Year. The following piece was submitted by Jeff Shapes, a marketing communications consultant, freelance writer and horse racing enthusiast, not necessarily in that order.

By Jeff Shapes
There’s one overriding reason Zenyatta should win the Eclipse Award as Horse of the Year over Rachel Alexandra, and it has nothing to do with their comparative records on the racetrack. No, Zenyatta has earned the honor because her electrifying performance in the Breeders’ Cup Classic flew in the face of the general negative assessment of her chances to win the event, while at the same time capping off a brilliant, undefeated career that put her into the discussion of who is history’s greatest female race horse. Now, if that doesn’t make her Horse of the Year, they might as well retire the award.
 
Yes there had been speculation that if Zenyatta ran in the Classic and won, there’d be a Horse of the Year debate. But in their heart of hearts, not to mention their racing opinions, those speculators, whether in public or not, didn’t believe Zenyatta had what it took to beat the “big” boys in the big race. Indeed, there were some who said she shouldn’t even run in the Classic, since there wasn’t really anything to gain. Better to protect her legacy as an undefeated champion with another romp in the Ladies’ Classic, than to go out with a loss chasing an unattainable goal.
 
Need some proof of how little regard the experts had for Zenyatta in the run up to the Classic? Despite being tabbed the pre-race wagering favorite, not one of the 11 media members whose selections were published by USA Today in its Breeders’ Cup preview picked Zenyatta to win. And east coast bias wasn’t in play. Joining writers from the New York Daily News, New York Post, Lexington Herald-Leader and Albany Times-Union in giving Zenyatta the thumbs down were the national correspondent of the Daily Racing Form, horse racing writers from the Associated Press and USA Today, an editor of the Thoroughbred Times, an on-air personality from HRTV and racing writers from the Los Angeles Daily News and San Diego Union-Tribune, in whose backyard Zenyatta ran all except one of her career races.
 
Want to bring in some more exulted names? Joe Drape of the New York Times did not pick Zenyatta, and neither did Steven Crist of the Daily Racing Form. The Washington Post’s Andy Beyer, inventor of the Beyer Speed Figure, the acknowledged statistical method for comparing racetrack performances under different race conditions? He labeled Zenyatta a throw out.

Luckily, Zenyatta’s connections had much greater faith in their magnificent mare than the experts.  Questioned for not shipping Zenyatta to a traditional dirt track to take on Rachel Alexandra head-to-head, team Zenyatta stuck to their guns of getting her ready for the Breeders’ Cup the best way they thought how. If that meant staying in Southern California and competing exclusively on synthetic surfaces, well that’s how it would be done. And though they never stated it, the guess here is that winning the Classic as a finishing touch on a Hall of Fame career, not to mention the historical achievement such a win would represent, was probably the long-range goal of those who guided Zenyatta’s career.
 
Of course, Rachel Alexandra’s connections, like most others in the racing world, assumed their filly had a stranglehold on Horse of the Year when she concluded her 2009 season with a win in the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga in early September. It was Rachel’s eighth victory in eight races, accomplished at seven racetracks in six states, with three coming over male competitors. Her campaign encompassed eye popping performances in such keystone events as the Kentucky Oaks, Preakness Stakes, Mother Goose Stakes, Haskell Invitational and the aforementioned Woodward, and was highlighted by either record breaking victory margins or historical firsts just about every time she left the starting gate.
 
With such a resumé, who could blame Jess Jackson for putting Rachel away for the winter, especially since she probably needed a rest after an exhausting year (visible in the Woodward). But, had the Breeders’ Cup Classic not been held on a synthetic surface, there’s little doubt Rachel would have continued her season and run at least one more race to conclude a campaign for the ages. After all, it was Jackson himself who announced his intention to run Rachel in next year’s Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs at the same time he said he would not run her this year on Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride because of his distaste for synthetic surfaces (or plastic as he labeled them).
 
Can we know how a Zenyatta-Rachel Alexandra showdown in the Breeders’ Cup Classic would have played out? Is there a certainty that had Rachel been entered in the race, Team Zenyatta would have taken her on? Would Rachel have performed as poorly on the synthetics as last year’s Horse of the Year, Curlin, and as other “dirt” horses seem to? These questions can never be answered. But what is fact is that Zenyatta showed up on Championship Saturday and won the most important North American race that’s open to all Thoroughbreds regardless of age or sex. This was no Raven’s Pass swooping in and leaving nothing behind but a few footprints.

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

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It has been almost two weeks since Mine That Bird and jockey Calvin Borel shocked the sports world with their improbable long shot victory in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. And as with any Derby aftermath, the question lingers in the air; will this be the year we end the Triple Crown drought? If our voters are any indication, the answer is an emphatic no as Mine That Bird is ranked in fourth place among the 14 horses prospective Preakness starters.

Furthermore, Calvin Borel’s decision to forego the Derby hero to ride the amazing Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness, an unprecedented move in the 135 years of the Kentucky Derby, goes even more to the point that this may not be the year racing celebrates its 12th Triple Crown champion. Instead, the consensus of our 23 voters, including the fans, was overwhelmingly in favor of Rachel Alexandra to run away with this much anticipated race. Will this hold true? Will trainer Bob Baffert spoil the Oaks/Derby story line with Pioneerof the Nile? Or perhaps we will see another unlikely outcome with a different long shot coming out of nowhere to take the prize. Only Saturday will tell.

Ray Paulick’s Preakness Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. Sure, he looked like he was running in slow motion in the Kentucky Derby compared to Mine That Bird when he rocketed up the rail to victory, but I think the condition of the racetrack had a lot to do with the outcome of the race. Pioneerof the Nile was well off the rail on what I think was the slower part of the track all the way and closer to the pace than expected. I liked the son of Empire Maker going into the Derby, and I think he dispelled concerns that he was a horse that could only run on synthetic tracks. His workout on Monday morning that prompted trainer Bob Baffert to give Pioneerof the Nile the green light to go to Pimlico indicates he came out of the Derby in very good shape.

2- Papa Clem. Smart Strike colt wanted to run more in the early going of the Kentucky Derby while jockey Rafael Bejarano was trying to get him to settle off the pace, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a change of tactics for the Preakness. Gary Stute-trained colt has shown versatility in the past, going to the front and setting moderate fractions to win or coming from midpack, as he did in taking the Arkansas Derby. Preakness field won’t be without pace, with Big Drama and Take the Points expected to show early speed. I’d look for Papa Clem to be just behind the early leaders.

3-Rachel Alexandra. The only knock on the filly is that she hasn’t really faced top-class competition yet. The Kentucky Oaks was her first Grade 1 race, and the field was pretty weak by Oaks standards. Nevertheless, what she did, running away from her beleaguered rivals to win by 20 π lengths, with her jockey sitting like a statue (except for the occasional glance back), was remarkable. This is a huge step up, and I’m not convinced that she’s up to the task.

4-Friesan Fire. Big disappointment in the Kentucky Derby after being sent off as the betting favorite on a sloppy racetrack that everyone thought he would like, following his eye-catching Louisiana Derby win in the slop at Fair Ground. Got bumped around pretty good at the start and came back with some minor cuts and scrapes. A.P. Indy colt has bounced back quickly for trainer Larry Jones and his Tuesday morning workout at Pimlico (five furlongs in :58.40) was very sharp.

5-Mine That Bird. Can’t take the Kentucky Derby victory away from him, no matter how strange the track might have played or how all the so-called “experts” (myself included) dismissed his chances going into the race. He was champion 2-year-old in Canada last year, and it’s clear that in his two losses in New Mexico he didn’t get the right kind of trip. Whether he was pushed to the lead early by Casey Lambert or moved on his own, he came up empty in the stretch of both the Borderland and Sunland Derbies. I think the track and especially a rail bias played in his favor for the Kentucky Derby, but Calvin Borel deserves a great deal of credit for saving Mine That Bird for one big run from far back. I don’t see a repeat performance in the Preakness.

6-Musket Man. Finished with determination in the Kentucky Derby after suffering some early problems, closing to get third while on the far outside, the deepest or stickiest part of the racetrack that day. Never worse than third in seven lifetime starts.

7-Take the Points. Skipped the Kentucky Derby to point for the Preakness, so trainer Todd Pletcher has a very fresh horse going into the race. May not have liked the synthetic surfaces or maybe he just wasn’t sharp  enough to win either of his two California starts. I wouldn’t be surprised to see big improvement.

8-Big Drama. Almost certain to set the pace in the Preakness, and though the Montbrook colt has stretched his speed out to 1 1/16 miles before, he hasn’t done it against this level of competition.

9-General Quarters. Didn’t really like his chances in the Kentucky Derby and I don’t think he’s moved up with his training since finishing 10th at Churchill Downs.

10-Terrain. On a five-race losing streak since being moved up from third to first in the Arlington-Washington Futurity last September. Would take a major form reversal to threaten here.

In a week that should have shown little movement in the rankings of the Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment, the Paulick Derby Index has actually shown some fluctuation as co-favorite Quality Road was withdrawn from the race on Monday because of complications resulting from a quarter crack. I Want Revenge, clearly now the favorite among our ballot stuffers, will lead a top ten that has lost some star power with several favorites not making the trip due to injury. That being said, this is still as strong a group as we have seen in years. The Derby this year should be an exciting one to watch with anywhere from 5-10 horses in legitimate contention.
 
You will also notice that the final week’s Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment features only the top ten contenders. We did this to put an onus on the top echelon of the field and make our last list more exclusive.

Finally, due to the fact that all ballots are submitted by 9 PM EST Monday night and well before Square Eddie’s withdrawal, you will see him on several ballots.
 
Will the PDI be the great predictor it portends to be on Saturday? Only time will tell.

1-Pioneerof the Nile. The Kentucky Derby is a tough race to win, even if everything goes your way, and it’s almost impossible for a horse to win if his training has been interrupted. Witness Unbridled’s Song, who battled foot problems coming up to the 1996 Derby, where he might have been the best horse but finished fifth while racing with a bar shoe on the problematic foot. If Quality Road’s connections felt their horse was sound and sent him to Louisville, I would have bet against him, simply because of the interruption in training. Everything has gone perfectly for Pioneerof the Nile: no interruptions in training due to bad weather or nagging injuries, and he is coming up to this race in the best form of his career. The Empire Maker colt has done everything asked of him, and I doubt trainer Bob Baffert would trade places with anybody.

2-I Want Revenge. It’s the horse, stupid. I’m no fan of trainer Jeff Mullins or the IEAH partners that bought into this son of Stephen Got Even, but I do like I Want Revenge. How can you not like a horse that does what he did to win the Wood Memorial after a disastrous start? The race before that, the Gotham Stakes, he showed enough early speed to press the pace and draw off in the stretch to a an easy victory. He is 0-for-2 against Pioneerof the Nile, though his first loss, by a nose in the Cash Call Futurity, was in his first start after breaking his maiden. I think he’ll be the betting favorite, but if Pioneerof the Nile beats I Want Revenge, people will be scratching their heads and wondering why.

3-Dunkirk. Todd Pletcher has kept the son of Unbridled’s Song under the radar, staying in Florida to train while the rest of the field is in Kentucky, and I don’t fault his logic that the track on Derby Day will likely be different from the surface everyone trained on in the weeks leading up to the race. Always seems to be that way. The colt has enormous talent, but there remains that issue of a lack of experience that has stopped many previous Derby contenders with a similar profile.

4-Friesan Fire.  One thing we know: if it rains as expected, and the track is sloppy, Friesan Fire will be one happy horse. The A.P. Indy colt seemed to relish the sloppy Fair Grounds surface while winning the Louisiana Derby in a cakewalk. His training up to the race for Larry Jones has been sensational, and the only thing his resume lacks is a victory over tough competition.

5-Musket Man. Beating Giant Oak in the Illinois Derby was no great accomplishment (doesn’t somebody always beat Giant Oak?), but it’s hard to fault a horse with five wins in six starts. Yonaguska colt seems like the grinder type—not much early speed or quick mid-race acceleration—but if he gets a good enough trip under Eibar Coa I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in the top flight at the eighth pole.

6-Papa Clem. Won the Arkansas Derby coming from off the pace, but Smart Strike colt has enough speed to be close up in the early going and maybe even make the lead if no one else wants it. Gary Stute learned from his father, Mel, the West Coast wizard of speed, so a late-week blowout of two or three furlongs might be used to sharpen up Papa Clem after a series of longer works.

7-Chocolate Candy. Has only one way of going, settle in near the back of the field and make a late run, so you know that racing luck will play a role for Candy Ride colt. Hollendorfer has won the Kentucky Oaks twice (Lite Light in 1991 and Pike Place Dancer in1996), proving he can win at the top level of the game while being based in California’s “B  Circuit” in the Bay Area. Training well, but has to have everything go his way for a victory.

8-Advice. Wise guys are asking how a horse that couldn’t win the Sunland Park Derby is going to win the Kentucky Derby.  Real Quiet, who came within a nose of winning the 1998 Triple Crown, couldn’t win in New Mexico, either, finishing third there as a 2-year-old in a pair of races. Advice demonstrated some quality last year, finishing second but DQed and placed third in the Arlington-Washington Futurity, and his last to first rally in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes was eye-catching. But races were on Polytrack, however, and he has yet to prove himself on a conventional dirt track (though the same can be said of Pioneerof the Nile).

9-Desert Party. I like the way the son of Street Cry has trained since arriving from Dubai, but I’ve seen previous Godolphin horses looking sharp in the morning before fading on Derby afternoon. If this one is any different, he’ll win without my backing at the windows.

10-Mr. Hot Stuff. Have always thought this Tiznow colt was going to develop into a good one, but it’s taken longer than expected. He’ll be running late in the Derby, but I think he looks more like a Travers winner.

It was a weekend of much consequence for the ever-shaping Derby Trail. In the Santa Anita Derby, Pioneerof the Nile strengthened his credentials as a top pick with an impressive win while Chocolate Candy shot up four places on the Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment on the back of a strong second place finish. In Illinois, Musket Man finally made a case strong enough for our voters, cracking our list for the first time at number nine. And I Want Revenge showed his prowess with a highly unusual and seemingly impossible ride in the Wood Memorial. Despite severely stumbling out of the gate, he stuck with the race and battled from last to first.

The weekend also had its fair share of disappointments with poor performances by hopefuls Imperial Council and Mr. Hot Stuff. However, most disturbing was the sudden scratch of The Pamplemousse, rendering this previous favorite completely off the Derby Trail. Quality Road also had a run in this weekend when a quarter crack was discovered in his right hind hoof. Since the news broke after many of our balloters had submitted their selections, look to see how far Quality Road drops in next week’s poll.

Next weekend, the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes will help to round out the Derby picture for many of the horses on our list including Old Fashioned, Papa Clem, Win Willy, Patena and Mafaaz.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. With the scratch of The Pamplemousse, the Santa Anita Derby came up a completely different kind of race than trainer Bob Baffert was hoping to get for the Empire Maker colt. But despite the crawling pace, Pioneerof the Nile came through with perhaps his best performance yet. He’ll get a fast pace in the Kentucky Derby, giving him the opportunity to make the kind of late run that Baffert thinks will best suit him.

2-I Want Revenge. Spectacular performance in the Wood Memorial, showing the Stephen Got Even colt’s versatility. He showed speed in the Gotham and blew away the field at the top of the stretch, and had to utilize a completely different running style here. I’m not big into offering owners advice, but if I were David Lanzman and Mike Iavarone, I’d get some duct tape and put it on trainer Jeff Mullins’ mouth when the media shows up Derby week. Nothing he says is going to help him in the mess he created  at the Aqueduct detention barn last Saturday prior to the Bay Shore Stakes.

3- Dunkirk. He moved up without racing this week, and the chances of getting into the starting field with his limited graded stakes earnings look better than ever. On the downside, if Dunkirk, with his expensive yearling price tag and fancy pedigree, does win the Derby and other big races as a 3-year-old, what are the chances we’ll see him as a 4-year-old next year. But I digress. He is an exciting prospect who should improve, if serious physical ailments aren’t the reason for his light record.

4-Quality Road. I had to chuckle when I saw the headline “Quality Road Quarter Crack Not Serious” on one web site. It’s right there with “mild” heart attack.  That’s the same kind of spin Team IEAH was trying to put out last year when Big Brown’s quarter crack re-emerged just before the Belmont, forcing Rick Dutrow to alter training. Missing any training in the final weeks before the Kentucky Derby is a serious setback, so we need to watch this one closely.

5-Friesan Fire. He’s got some history to beat with his long layoff and Louisiana wintertime route to Churchill Downs, but this is a good horse, and the Vinery Stable (co-owners with Rick Porter’s Fox Hill Farm) is one of the hottest things going in racing right now, from limited numbers.

6-Old Fashioned.  Arkansas Derby is the big test. Is he just a miler? I like the rider switch and think the Unbridled’s Song colt will avenge his only career loss, suffered when when he was a bit too close to a  hot pace on a tiring Oaklawn track in the Rebel.

7-Musket Man. The under the radar horse can’t stay hidden any longer after winning Saturday’s Illinois Derby impressively. Son of Yonaguska is one of those horses that looks better on paper the longer you look at him, though it’s a pedigree that comes up light on  stamina.

8-Desert Party. Not much new to report on UAE Derby runner-up. I’m sure it was a quiet week for him.

9-Chocolate Candy. Ran a really solid race against Pioneereof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby, closing ground late on super slow fractions. I know it’s horse racing (not owner racing), but would love to see Jenny Craig in the winner’s circle at Churchill Downs on Derby Day with a son of Candy Ride that she bred with her late husband. After a week of dealing with the likes of Ernie Paragallo, I’d like to see good people rewarded, and she certainly qualifies.

10-Papa Clem. Let’s hope the Arkansas Derby comes up with a fast track. If it does, I wouldn’t be surprised to see son of Smart Strike be the one to upset Old Fashioned. The win would further validate the strength of the West Coast’s 3-year-olds, a point that’s already been made by I Want Revenge’s New York performances.

After a very strong Derby prep weekend, featuring races in Dubai and Florida, several winners emerged. Quality Road for the first time makes his ascension to the top of our Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment despite having fewer first-place votes than second-place finisher Friesan Fire. His impressive win in the Florida Derby proved only to cloud the upper echelon of 3-year-olds this year with five horses within striking distance at the top. Next weekend’s Wood Memorial (I Want Revenge) and Santa Anita Derby (Pioneerof the Nile, The Pamplemousse) should answer many questions…or further delay a consensus favorite.

The aforementioned Pioneerof the Nile wins the "What have you done for me lately" award, dropping from 2nd to 4th and losing six first-place votes despite having done nothing to hurt his case. On the flip side, despite losing in the Florida Derby, Dunkirk actually moved up a place this week. Theregoesjojo went bye bye, dropping off our list from 13th place. And Beethoven rolled over once more as he continued his hot/cold relationship with our voters after skipping the Florida Derby due to an injury.

Ray Paulick’s top 10 and analysis:

1-Quality Road. It wasn’t the strongest Florida Derby field ever assembled (that’s an understatement), but Quality Road progressed from a one-turn miler to a two-turn horse very impressively. The final time was meaningless (because of how the track was playing), though I like the way he lengthened his stride and turned back a talented Dunkirk down the stretch. The Jerkens family has never been big on traveling road shows, so it will be interesting to see where and how trainer Jimmy Jerkens prepares the son of Elusive Quality for the Kentucky Derby.

2-Pioneerof the Nile. His big test comes Saturday in the Santa Anita Derby. Here is how clocker Bruno De Julio (www.racingwithbruno.com <http://www.racingwithbruno.com> ) described son of Empire Maker’s five-furlong workout over Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride synthetic surface last Wednesday: “Pioneerof The Nile, with Joe Steiner on board, worked a strong five furlongs in 59.1 and out in 111.2. Galloping out in 126 for seven furlongs. He extended strongly through the lane. Baffert definitely tightened the girth on ‘Nile and he responded with a good work. Nile is not the prettiest of movers on this track, and that drew some criticism from some onlookers. He has never really been a horse that has handled the pro-ride ‘pretty’.” Do I think Baffert will have tightened the screws completely for the Santa Anita Derby? Of course not, so I won’t be that surprised to see Pioneerof the Nile come up short in his final Kentucky Derby prep.

3-The Pamplemousse. With Julio Canani in Dubai, front-running son of Kafwain worked rather unimpressively, six furlongs in 1:13 flat, according to Bruno De Julio, in his final Santa Anita Derby tune-up. Here are Bruno’s comments: “He started quickly early as he broke from the pole pulling Alex Solis from the saddle. He went the first half mile in 47 flat while being kept wide off the fence and finished in a lackluster 26 flat on our watch. Railroad, the old claimer, ran up inside of him in the lane, but that didn’t get ‘Mousse’s dandruff up at all. In fact, he was shut down late. Alex Solis seemed to be moving his hands just slightly, as he did last week. The colt galloped out rather slowly in 127 and change.” Despite the less-than-rave reviews, I think The Pamplemousse will be tough to catch in the Santa Anita Derby.

4-Dunkirk. Showed he’s a very good horse when closing against a Gulfstream Park dirt track with a speed bias in the Florida Derby. Trainer Todd Pletcher has been playing some serious catch-up with the Unbridled’s Song colt, as this was just his third start of the year after going unraced as a 2-year-old. If he gets into the Derby field, he will be highly regarded, but the lack of experience unquestionably plays against him. Nevertheless, I thought his Florida Derby performance was a huge step forward and puts him into the ranks of leading contenders.

5-Friesan Fire. The more I review the decision to prep the son of A.P. Indy at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, the more skeptical I am that he’s in quite the same league as the Florida and California-based 3-year-olds. Louisiana has seldom been a successful route to the Kentucky Derby, and I really haven’t seen that much in terms of depth of competition that makes me change my mind. Besides, the daylight victory in the slop in the Louisiana Derby may be less meaningful than the margin indicates simply because of the track condition.

6-I Want Revenge. No reason he can’t repeat his Gotham performance this Saturday in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, unless the back-and-forth travel from California to New York gets to him. Have to admit I overlooked this son of Stephen Got Even until the Gotham, probably in part because of the big-race inexperience of trainer Jeff Mullins. Here are clocker Bruno De Julio’s comments on his final work last Sunday at Hollywood Park: “He worked solo and relaxed nicely to the pole in 12.3, 24.2, and 36 flat to the 1/4 pole. You can see him winding up and (Joe) Talamo barely shook the reins. The colt pricked his left ear inside the furlong pole waiting forTalamo to ask him. Talamo never did and the colt shut himself off and finished in 59.4 on our watch. Final 1/4 in 23.4 and out in 112.4 for six furlongs, 127.1 for seven furlongs and out a mile in 143 flat. He actually went out a mile and three quarters before pulling up.” Bruno seems to be saying the colt can run all day.

7-Old Fashioned. One-time leader of the division slips a few more spots as other contenders step up. Son of Unbridled’s Song will need to turn in impressive performance in the Arkansas Derby to regain any support, and even then the competition won’t be that deep, so it would be a somewhat hollow victory.

8-Desert Party. Lost the UAE Derby to stablemate Regal Ransom on a track that really played to speed. It’s so difficult to know how much a transoceanic trip is going to take out of the Dubai-based horses, but I wouldn’t throw son of Street Cry out completely just because of the UAE loss.

9-Imperial Council. Son of Empire Maker remains the sleeper in my top 10. A big effort in the Wood against I Want Revenge moves him up considerably, but a flat performance may take him out of the Derby altogether.

10-Regal Ransom. Fought off Desert Party while winning the UAE Derby in solid performance. Historically, the race hasn’t meant much vis a vis the Kentucky Derby, but I have to think that’s going to change one of these years.

The last slow weekend before Derby was reflected by a basic stagnation of the Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment. The only race of note this weekend, the Lane’s End Stakes, did not really produce any headlines.The winner Hold Me Back did not crack even one of our Top Ten lists this week and none of the other horses in that field are anywhere to be found in this week’s PDI. Perhaps most notable was that the only Derby winner to come out of the Lane’s End (Jim Beam Stakes at that time) passed away yesterday. Lil E. Tee left a legacy that does not look to be repeated any time soon, at least not this year. Of course, Hard Spun was the closest since as runner up in the Derby in 2007.

The only major addition to the field was the Kempton winner Mafaaz who despite only being voted on by three of our voters, actually picked up a first place vote. It should be interesting to see how this international experiment will affect this year’s race.

Next week and beyond, we look forward to the top prep races including the Santa Anita Derby, Florida Derby and Wood Memorial. Look for a much more significant shakeup in the weeks to come.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. So his Beyer figure wasn’t very good in winning the San Felipe. I have a great deal of respect for Andy Beyer and his figures, but I’m not sure they have got synthetic surface performances figured out as well as races on dirt. It’s becoming increasingly popular to knock synthetic track winners, but this son of Empire Maker keeps on winning, and that’s still the name of the game.

2- The Pamplemousse. I can see this horse beating Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby if there’s not much pace to go with him. Kentucky will be a different story with lots of speed, and I’m not sure a son of Kafwain really wants a mile and a quarter.

3- Friesan Fire. Impressive Louisiana Derby winner will have a long rest between starts if Larry Jones trains him up to the Kentucky Derby as he’s recently indicated. The successful road to the roses hasn’t traveled through New Orleans that often, however.

4-I Want Revenge. How much is a half interest in the Stephen Got Even colt worth to IEAH stables, which has been attempting to buy him in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle two years in a row following Big Brown’s success in 2008. Sources say the price is about $5 million.

5-Quality Road. Here comes the test for the son of Elusive Quality in this weekend’s Florida Derby. First time around two turns will tell us a lot about whether or not he is truly Derby material.

6-Old Fashioned. With an additional week’s time to reflect, I’m beginning to wonder if maybe Old Fashioned was just a very precocious 2-year-old whose classmates are now catching up to him. He’ll need to rebound big time in the Arkansas Derby.

7-Desert Party. Son of Street Cry needs to do win big in this weekend’s UAE Derby in Dubai. Anything short of that means Sheikh Mohammed’s quest for the Kentucky Derby will have to wait another year.

8-Imperial Council.  Might not win the Kentucky Derby, but something tells me the Empire Maker colt will be an important horse before the year is over.

9-Theregoesjojo. He’s my upset special in the Florida Derby, and son of Brahms will be a price to boot.

10-Mafaaz. Sorry, Dunkirk, but the John Gosden-trained winner of the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes in England just bounced you off my top 10. Sure, the son of the Machiavellian stallion Medicean is bred for turf and he’s lightly raced. But I give a great deal of respect to Gosden, who is no stranger to racing on dirt in the U.S., having stabled in California for a number of years. Besides, Dunkirk has plenty of opportunity this coming weekend to make a name for himself outside of the maiden and allowance  ranks when he goes to post in the Florida Derby.

We all knew a shakeup was about to occur. Rarely if ever, do the consensus horses at the top of the field continue to impress throughout the Derby prep season and this year has officially proven to be no different. Despite leaving the third-place finisher behind by eight lengths, it is hard to ignore the fact that Old Fashioned was beaten in the Rebel Stakes by 56-1 shot Win Willy, a $25,000 yearling purchase whose victory led his connections to turn down a $3-million offer in exchange for the promise of an exciting two months on the Triple Crown trail. This turn of events has dropped the previous consensus number one to sixth in our poll.

Perhaps the most interesting trend this week is a tightening in what seemed to be the de facto top 8 horses despite first place votes being distributed as low as 10th with Rachel Alexandra. The 74-point drop between Desert Party and Imperial Council might imply a tightening at the top and less confidence in the bottom 12 contenders.

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Paulick’s Derby Picks

1-Pioneerof the Nile. My initial reaction was to drop the Empire Maker colt from the top spot, because I didn’t like the way he won Saturday’s San Felipe. But after looking at the slow fractions, and the fact he moved sooner than normal, his win was really not as bad as it looked to me the first time around. Plus, it was a win, and trainer Bob Baffert hadn’t done that much with him in the way of training. His philosophy  isn’t to win all the preps, it’s to have the horse on his game for the Kentucky Derby; or, as only Baffert can say, “We don’t wear our good shoes until Sunday.”

2- The Pamplemousse. He went back to work with a three-eighths of a mile breeze after his eye-popping victory in the Sham Stakes. California clocker Bruno De Julio (click here <http://www.racingwithbruno.com/> to visit his web site) said the Kafwain colt seems to be thriving and is holding his weight and coat color well. Looking forward to his showdown against Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby.

3- Friesan Fire. How many times have we seen horses draw off to huge winning margins on a sloppy racetrack like Friesan Fire did in Saturday’s Louisiana Derby? He’s obviously a mudlark, so that begs the questions: How much did the racing surface factor in to that huge margin of victory? I think it was a big contributing factor. Sloppy track winners are often overbet in their next starts, and I think this A.P. Indy colt was overbet down to 8-1 the next day in the second pool of the Derby Futures wager.

4-I Want Revenge. Stephen Got Even colt worked an easy half-mile at Hollywood Park Sunday, just over a week after his dominating victory at Aqueduct in the Gotham Stakes. Clocker De Julio said of the work: “visually it was perfect. The colt was well relaxed and has actually kept good weight on despite the race being only eight days ago. His coat is impeccable and he seems to be thriving physically.” Figures to be part of a sizable speed brigade in this year’s Derby field.

5-Quality Road. Will be staying in Florida for the Florida Derby rather than going to New York for the Wood Memorial, as trainer Jimmy Jerkens originally said he might do. Son of Elusive Quality still has a lot to prove, from the standpoint of getting the Derby distance.

6-Old Fashioned.  I’ve been questioning the quality of the horses Old Fashioned has been beating, so it didn’t help his cause when a 56-1 longshot blew by him in the final sixteenth of a mile in Saturday’s Rebel. Yes, Ramon Dominguez allowed the colt to chase fast early fractions on a tiring track, but if that’s the only way this son of Unbridled’s Song can run, then he’s going to be up against it in the Kentucky Derby. It’s probably too late to expect any change in his running style.

7-Desert Party. Not much to say about son of Street Cry, who is being geared up for the UAE Derby in Dubai. One of these days, Sheikh Mohammed will succeed in winning the Kentucky Derby with a horse that winters in Dubai, but this is a tough group of 3-year-olds and I don’t this is going to be his year.

8-Imperial Council.  Added son of Empire Maker to my list this week after going back and looking at his effort in the Gotham behind I Want Revenge. Looks like he’s got a lot of improvement left in him.

9-Theregoesjojo. Florida Derby will be make or break for the son of Brahms.

10-Dunkirk. I finally relented and added the unbeaten son of Unbridled’s Song onto my top 10, in part because of the disappointing performances of others last weekend in the Tampa Bay Derby and Louisiana Derby. I stand behind the belief that 2-year-old form’s historical significance in being able to win the Kentucky Derby is not an accident but a result of the unique and challenging circumstances of the race.

Interesting that four of my top 10 are by sons of Unbridled and three are by A.P. Indy or his sons or grandsons. That may be contributing to the overall quality of this group. It’s good to see stamina influences represented in such big numbers among the leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby.

In what is truly becoming a pattern, this weekend’s biggest winner I Want Revenge jumped from the bottom of our poll to the fourth position after romping in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday afternoon. What should not be overlooked in the wake of his 8 1/2 length win is how much stronger the case can be made for Pioneerof the Nile. Head to head, Pioneer won by a narrow margin in the Hollywood Park CashCall Futurity and left Revenge in third in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. However, I Want Revenge proved that he can run on a dirt track in New York, something Pioneerof the Nile hasn’t yet done.

The two biggest losers of the week were Haynesfield and Stardom Bound. Haynesfield, one of the favorites going into the Gotham and a receipient of a first place vote in the last PDI, finished a dismal eighth and dropped completely out of the poll receiving no votes this week. And in light of a shaky performance and reports that Stardom Bound would be heading towards the Kentucky Oaks instead of the Derby, many of our voters dropped her from their lists causing her to fall from the 8th position to number 11.

While it was a relatively light weekend of racing, next week should be anything but with four major Derby preps being run. Study the poll closely this week. It may look very different after the smoke clears Sunday.

Ray’s Picks and Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. West Coast clockers were buzzing again about the Bob Baffert-trained colt after last Sunday’s five-furlong workout in :58 4/5 at Santa Anita. The work came a day after I Want Revenge, the colt Pioneerof the Nile has defeated twice, romped to victory in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. That East Coast win, while solidifying Pioneerof the Nile’s status as the West’s leading contender on the road to Churchill Downs, begs the question of how the switch from California’s synthetics to New York’s traditional dirt may have played into I Want Revenge’s stunning performance. Pioneerof the Nile (by Empire Maker) goes in Saturday’s Grade 2 San Felipe, part of a “fantastic four” afternoon of Kentucky Derby preps (along with Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby, Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, and Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds).

2-Old Fashioned. Also fired a bullet in his weekend workout at Oaklawn in preparation for the Rebel. Son of Unbridled’s Song will be the heavy favorite to keep a perfect record for trainer Larry Jones and Rick Porter’s Fox Hill Farms. Will be interesting to see whether Silver City, second to Old Fashioned in the Southwest Stakes, can make Old Fashioned work even harder for this victory.

3-I Want Revenge. Hard to say anything bad about Saturday’s whiz-bang knockout of his Gotham rivals at Aqueduct, his first start on a dirt track after six races on synthetics in California. Son of A.P. Indy stallion Stephen Got Even was a good horse going into the race and came out of it a budding star. His trainer, Jeff Mullins, may not be the most desirable individual to put up on the Churchill Downs podium on Derby day (he’s had his share of medication violations and it wasn’t that long ago he called racing fans “addicts and idiots”).But just like Big Brown last year, let’s not hold the horse accountable for the trainer’s bad behavior.

4-The Pamplemousse. Kafwain colt had an easy week after his big victory in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita. Should start gearing up for his next start in the coming days.

5-Quality Road. Would like to see trainer Jimmy Jerkens ship Elusive Quality colt north for the Wood Memorial and take on I Want Revenge. Right now I would give the edge to I Want Revenge because of his experience edge, particularly around two turns.

6-Friesan Fire. He’ll have his biggest test yet in the Louisiana Derby on Saturday and certainly didn’t scare anyone away, as nine other 3-year-olds will line up against him. Son of A.P. Indy blazed five furlongs Monday in :58 1/5 at Fair Grounds for Larry Jones to show that he’s on edge.

7-Desert Party. Not much news from the desert on Sheikh Mohammed’s leading Kentucky Derby candidate. I wouldn’t bet against son of Street Cry in U.A.E. Derby coming up later this month, but it’s a big hill to climb to run there and then ship halfway around the world for the Kentucky Derby.

8-Beethoven. I still consider Sky Mesa colt a legitimate dark horse for the Derby. Cutting back from two turns to one-turn mile in Fountain of Youth was not to his advantage. He needs to step up much bigger in next start.

9-Patena. Saturday’s Louisiana Derby will in some ways be a test to see if Rick Dutrow can move the Seeking the Gold colt up from his previous trainer, Josie Carroll, following IEAH Stable’s purchase of a majority interest. Runner-up to Friesan Fire last out had a solid :58 2/5 drill at Gulfstream Park on Monday. Definitely one to watch.

10-Theregoesjojo: It was a toss-up whether to keep son of Sky Mesa in the 10 position or bump him in favor of Stardom Bound, the desperate winner of Saturday’s Santa Anita Oaks who most likely is off the Kentucky Derby trail. It’s pretty clear that trainer Robert Frankel thinks Stardom Bound needs to stay in her own division, though it’s possible he could be overruled if she wins big in the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland next out. Theregoesjojo figures to improve off his effort in the Fountain of Youth.

Each of the four Derby preps this weekend will be interesting in its own way. Can Pioneerof the Nile continue his march successfully at Santa Anita? Will anyone stop Old Fashioned at Oaklawn? How will the Friesan Fire-Patena rematch play out? Did Barclay Tagg make the right move by shipping Hello Broadway to Tampa Bay for the Derby there? We’ll have some answers on Saturday night.

Ray Paulick	Fan Vote	Alex Brown	Paul Moran	Billy Reed	John Conte	Bill Finley
Paulick Report	Paulick Report	Alex Brown Racing	At The Races	Billy Reed Says	Conte’s Picks	ESPN, NYT
Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned	Quality Road	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned
Old Fashioned	I Want Revenge	Dunkirk	Stardom Bound	Quality Road	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile
I Want Revenge	The Pamplemousse	The Pamplemousse	Pioneerof the Nile	Dunkirk	I Want Revenge	Friesan Fire
The Pamplemousse	Friesan Fire	I Want Revenge	Quality Road	Pioneerof the Nile	Dunkirk	The Pamplemousse
Quality Road	Quality Road	Rachel Alexandra	I Want Revenge	Friesan Fire	West Side Bernie	Quality Road
Friesan Fire	Pioneerof the Nile	Desert Party	Hello Broadway	Hello Broadway	Chocolate Candy	I Want Revenge
Desert Party	Dunkirk	Pioneerof the Nile	The Pamplemousse	Desert Party	Capt. Candyman Can	Desert Party
Beethoven	Imperial Council	Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire	Patena	The Pamplemousse	Dunkirk
Patena	Desert Party	Patena	Desert Party	Beethoven	Hello Broadway	Silver City
Theregoesjojo	Patena	Hello Broadway	Dunkirk	Stardom Bound	Giant Oak	Patena

Randy Moss	Bill Nack	Valerie Grash	Gary West	Michael Nikolic	Dana Byerly	Jeremy Plonk
ESPN	ESPN	Foolish Pleasure	FW Star-Telegram	Gathering the Wind	Green But Game	Horseplayer Pro, ESPN
Quality Road	Dunkirk	Friesan Fire	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile
I Want Revenge	The Pamplemousse	Old Fashioned	Quality Road	Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire	Old Fashioned
Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile	Stardom Bound	Dunkirk	Desert Party	Flying Pegasus	Patena
Dunkirk	I Want Revenge	Rachel Alexandra	Hello Broadway	Patena	Desert Party	Friesan Fire
Pioneerof the Nile	Quality Road	I Want Revenge	Pioneerof the Nile	Pioneerof the Nile	Quality Road	Imperial Council
The Pamplemousse	Old Fashioned	Papa Clem	Friesan Fire	I Want Revenge	I Want Revenge	Hello Broadway
Friesan Fire	Stardom Bound	Hello Broadway	I Want Revenge	Chocolate Candy	Patena	Dunkirk
Theregoesjojo	Friesan Fire	Mr. Hot Stuff	Giant Oak	Papa Clem	Theregoesjojo	Quality Road
Desert Party	Desert Party	Imperial Council	Patena	Quality Road	Imperial Council	The Pamplemousse
Beethoven	Giant Oak	Dunkirk	Flying Pegasus	Flying Pegasus	Nowhere to Hide	Mr. Hot Stuff

Bill Christine	John Pricci	Vic Zast	Jon White	Richard Eng	Alan Mann	Alicia Wincze
Horserace Insider	Horserace Insider	Horserace Insider	HRTV, Santa Anita TV	Las Vegas R-J	Left at the Gate	Lexington H-L
Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile	Patena	Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned
I Want Revenge	Pioneerof the Nile	Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire
Desert Party	The Pamplemousse	Stardom Bound	I Want Revenge	Friesan Fire	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile
Pioneerof the Nile	I Want Revenge	The Pamplemousse	Quality Road	The Pamplemousse	Papa Clem	Desert Party
Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire	The Pamplemousse	Pioneerof the Nile	Stardom Bound	The Pamplemousse
Quality Road	Stardom Bound	Dunkirk	Friesan Fire	Quality Road	Dunkirk	Quality Road
Vineyard Haven	Quality Road	Desert Party	Patena	Dunkirk	The Pamplemousse	I Want Revenge
The Pamplemousse	Dunkirk	Capt. Candyman Can	Papa Clem	I Want Revenge	I Want Revenge	Hello Broadway
Theregoesjojo	Desert Party	Chocolate Candy	Dunkirk	Danger to Society	Flying Pegasus	Chocolate Candy
Patena	Hello Broadway	Quality Road	Chocolate Candy	Theregoesjojo	Imperial Council	Beethoven

Art Wilson	Joe Drape	Andy Serling	Jessica Chapel	Brendan O’Meara	Jeff Scott	Lisa Grimm
Los Angeles Newspapers	New York Times	NYRA	Railbird	The Saratogian	The Saratogian	SuperfectaBlog
The Pamplemousse	Old Fashioned	Imperial Council	Old Fashioned	Friesan Fire	I Want Revenge	Pioneerof the Nile
Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile	The Pamplemousse	Desert Party	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile	The Pamplemousse
Pioneerof the Nile	Quality Road	Desert Party	Friesan Fire	Desert Party	Friesan Fire	Old Fashioned
Dunkirk	The Pamplemousse	I Want Revenge	Pioneerof the Nile	Quality Road	Desert Party	Friesan Fire
I Want Revenge	Theregoesjojo	Rachel Alexandra	I Want Revenge	Dunkirk	Old Fashioned	I Want Revenge
Quality Road	Friesan Fire	Quality Road	Flying Pegasus	Take the Points	Flat Out	Quality Road
Papa Clem	Hello Broadway	Danger to Society	Regal Ransom	Pioneerof the Nile	Quality Road	Chocolate Candy
Imperial Council	Sumo	Old Fashioned	Dunkirk	I Want Revenge	The Pamplemousse	Stardom Bound
Friesan Fire	Dunkirk	Dunkirk	Quality Road	Imperial Council	General Quarters	Patena
Desert Party	I Want Revenge	Hello Broadway	Papa Clem	Nowhere to Hide	Mr. Hot Stuff	Hello Broadway