Posts Tagged ‘henrythenavigator’
Thursday, March 11th, 2010
Pedigree consultant and author Edwin Anthony examines the bloodlines of Discreetly Mine, winner of the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, in the second in a series of articles written exclusively for the Paulick Report. Click here to view last week’s article, looking at the pedigree of Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth winner Eskendereya.
DISCREETLY MINE (Mineshaft—Pretty Discreet, by Private Account)
By Edwin Anthony
There’s something to be said for the concept of sticking close to the most established and historically significant Thoroughbred families. The pedigree of Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra provides us with a good example of this, as her sire Medaglia d’Oro is a son of El Prado (closely related to the studs Drone and Notebook from the important Bend Or family), while Medaglia d’Oro is himself out of a mare by Bailjumper (Frizette family) and his second dam is inbred 3 x 4 to the important mare Sunday Evening (in direct female line and via champion Silent Screen) from the very productive Idle Fancy family (champions Cicada, Dark Mirage, First Landing, Hill Prince, Indian Skimmer, Speightstown, plus Dublin, Henrythenavigator, Java Gold, etc.).
On the dam side, Rachel Alexandra is out of a good racemare by Roar, who was not himself a particularly memorable racehorse (won the Grade 2 Jim Beam), but is out of a full sister to Hero’s Honor (damsire of Elusive Quality) and very closely related to Kentucky Derby winner Sea Hero from a very strong branch of the La Troienne family. This mare by Roar also carries inbreeding to the important mare Pocahontas (dam of Chieftain and Tom Rolfe), while her dam concentrates the genes of the Imperatrice family via Cure the Blues and Sir Gaylord (half-brother to Secretariat). Further back in her dam side, we find that Rachel Alexandra not only traces to a mare by the notable stud War Relic (3 x 3 in the pedigree of In Reality) but traces directly to War Relic’s full-sister as well. This is also the family of Belmont winners Sword Dancer (sire of Damascus) and Hail to All, as well as Handicap Triple Crown winner Fit to Fight.
Thus, you can see what I’m getting at—a working knowledge of the best Thoroughbred families can pay real dividends. These families not only produce top racehorses, but genetic connections (via Bailjumper, El Prado, Roar, etc.) that can send a pedigree spinning off in a whole new direction (a very good direction), especially in combination and through inbreeding, which serves to reinforce genetic dominance in a pedigree. These genetic connections don’t necessarily come via the best or most high-profile stallions from these families, although the best stallions from these families do very often combine successfully in pedigrees with their close relatives.
A skeptic can raise the legitimate point that the most resources (in stud fees and overall investment) are spent on mares from these very specific families. I can hardly argue with this point, as there is a great deal of truth to it. But that’s like saying that people spend the most money on houses in the best neighborhoods and that the most investment in remodeling and landscaping is spent on these same houses. These neighborhoods are the safest place to invest your money, as long as you are spending that money on real estate.
With bloodstock, you see a similar trend, and as long as these families continue to produce results on the racetrack and in the breeding shed, breeders will continue to concentrate their assets in them and in their descendants.
Instead of fighting this trend and lamenting the fact that you can’t afford to purchase a $1-million mare, use these families to your advantage. Buy fillies and mares from the edges of these families or buy fillies and mares sired by stallions from these families. Build your own family. I’m not saying that you’ll be able to accomplish this task overnight, but there are too many success stories using this kind of strategy to list here. It’s like buying the cheapest house in a good neighborhood and slowly adding value to it through improvements.
Of course, you’re not likely to stumble across a mare like the dam of Rachel Alexandra with your first mare purchase, but you don’t want to spend a mint’s worth of cash to discover that your mares simply don’t have the genetic wiring to produce stakes horses in the first place. You want to invest where gold and silver was mined successfully before, or at least operate in the same part of the world. There are no extra points in the horse business for finding treasure where no one has found it before (that’s an uphill battle), and stallions with the most connections to these superior families are generally worth the most as breeding stock. This is where breeders will steer their best mares.
So, this background in Thoroughbred families leads us to our subject pedigree, belonging to recent Risen Star Stakes (G2) winner Discreetly Mine. He traces to the mare Risque (1928, by Stimulus), and another branch of the Risque family leads to Broodmare of the Year Key Bridge, whose sons include champion 3-year-old colt Key to the Mint (a successful sire and broodmare sire), co-Horse of the Year/champion turf horse Fort Marcy (a gelding), and Grade 1 turf winner Key to Content.
Discreetly Mine’s branch of the Risque family leads to the Northern Dancer mare Christmas Wishes, who had a full-sister named Cool Mood. Cool Mood had a Buckpasser daughter named Passing Mood, who produced Belmont (G1)/Haskell (G1) winner Touch Gold (a useful sire) and With Approval (Horse of the Year in Canada).
Christmas Wishes produced a Tom Rolfe daughter named Bury the Hatchet, who in turned produced the full-sisters Buryyourbelief (G1 Kentucky Oaks winner) and Pretty Persuasive. Pretty Persuasive is the dam of Pretty Discreet (G1 Alabama winner), she being the dam of Discreetly Mine.
A closer inspection of Pretty Discreet’s pedigree reveals that her sire, Private Account, carries inbreeding to La Troienne (2 crosses) and War Admiral (3 crosses) via his dam—champion 2-year-old filly Numbered Account (by Buckpasser). Buckpasser is also the damsire of Believe It (sire of Pretty Discreet’s dam), meaning that Pretty Discreet carries the tremendous broodmare sire Buckpasser 3 x 4 in her pedigree.
If all of this sounds vaguely familiar, it is because Pretty Discreet has been around for quite some time and has been a very good producer. Although her first three foals by Boundary (inbred closely to Damascus) were a combined 1 for 24, Pretty Discreet’s fourth foal, Pretty Wild (by Wild Again), was second in both the Hopeful (G1) and Futurity (G1) at 2. An unraced daughter of Awesome Again named Discreetly Awesome followed two foals later, and her daughter Awesome Maria (by Maria’s Mon) won the G2 Matron and placed second in the Frizette (G1) in 2009. Discreet Cat (by Forestry) was Pretty Discreet’s next foal, and his record is well documented, as he won his first six starts, including the Grade 1 Cigar Mile, in which he equaled Easy Goer’s one-mile track record at Aqueduct.
One might point to Discreet Cat’s brilliant speed over one mile and doubt the stamina of Discreetly Mine. But keep in mind that Discreet Cat is a son of Forestry (by Storm Cat) and although Forestry is out of a daughter of the stamina influence Pleasant Colony, he was a King’s Bishop (G1) winner over seven furlongs and his progeny seem to favor more of the Storm Cat prototype, prospering more in the sprinter/miler realm than in classic distance events. Pretty Discreet did win the Alabama (10 furlongs), so we are starting with a foundation of stamina in the dam.
Private Account (sire of Pretty Discreet) did sire his share of horses that enjoyed a distance of ground—the full-siblings Personal Ensign and Personal Flag (by Private Account) were certainly up to the classic distance standard, and Personal Ensign’s son Miner’s Mark (by Mr. Prospector) won the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), while Our Emblem (a full-brother to Miner’s Mark) sired Kentucky Derby (G1)/Preakness (G1) winner and champion 3-year-old colt War Emblem.
Although Pretty Discreet’s damsire Believe It is a son of In Reality (not known as a classic line), he did win the Wood Memorial (G1) going two turns and was a respectable third in the Kentucky Derby to Affirmed and Alydar. The fact that Believe It was also the damsire of near-Triple Crown winner Real Quiet (lost the Belmont by a nose after winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness) shows that Believe It passes forward a great deal more stamina than the typical son of In Reality.
This takes us to Discreetly Mine’s sire, Mineshaft, who was American Horse of the Year at age 4 after spending the majority of his 3-year-old season racing on the turf in England and France with limited success. At 4, Mineshaft accounted for classic distance prestige events like the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1, 10 furlongs) and Suburban (G1, 10 furlongs), while also racking up wins in the Pimlico Special (G1, 9 1/2 furlongs) and Woodward (G1, 9 furlongs).
Considering that he started his career with a $100,000 stud fee and now stands for $20,000, one could rate Mineshaft a disappointment but not a flop (especially considering the wide-spread drop in stud fees the past two seasons). He is genetically loaded (by A.P. Indy/his Mr. Prospector dam was a G1 winner and all five of her foals were stakes winners), and his full sister Tomisue’s Delight was not only a multiple G1 winner in New York but is a G1 producer herself (dam of Mr. Sidney).
Very often it takes a crafty mating to unlock the potential of a stallion, and we could very well have a breakthrough runner for Mineshaft in the form of Discreetly Mine. I mentioned the Grade 1-winning full siblings Personal Ensign (undefeated champion) and Personal Flag (Suburban). They were out of a mare by Hoist the Flag, and Personal Ensign produced three top runners (Miner’s Mark, Our Emblem, and Traditionally) by Mr. Prospector. Mineshaft’s first two dams are by none other than Mr. Prospector and Hoist the Flag.
Given the fact that A.P. Indy (sire of Mineshaft) brings in the reinforcing genes of War Admiral, La Troienne, and Buckpasser, and the fact that Hoist the Flag is out of a mare by War Admiral, you can see that Discreetly Mine’s lineage replicates many of the Phipps/Claiborne pedigrees of the 1970s and ‘80s, stacking the genes of La Troienne, War Admiral, and their house stallions like Mr. Prospector, Hoist the Flag, Bold Ruler, Secretariat, and Believe It with remarkable success.
Discreetly Mine picks up balanced inbreeding to Tom Rolfe (through a son and a daughter) in the bargain, while Mineshaft also gets reinforcement of his inbreeding to the full sisters Glamour and So Chic (from the Baby League branch of the La Troienne family) via Private Account (a great-grandson of Glamour).
A mare like Pretty Discreet seems to have the genetic ability to make virtually any stallion look good, although this propensity for quality all begins with a good foundation in family and inbreeding to two daughters of Buckpasser, which reinforces the La Troienne/War Admiral inbreeding already found in the pedigrees of Private Account and Mineshaft.
Thus, we’ll continue to follow Discreetly Mine’s development as a racehorse and stallion prospect this spring with great interest. The genetic potential for achievement in distance events is obviously there, and a classic win or placing is within the realm of possibility.
Edwin Anthony was the staff pedigree consultant at Three Chimneys Farm for six years and has penned dozens of articles on pedigree research. He also published The American Thoroughbred (Volume I) in 2008 which can be ordered via the ad link on this web page or through his website at www.thoroughbredadvisor.com.
Tags: Balljumper, bloodstock, Chieftan, Cicada, Dark Mirage, Discreetly Mine, dublin, Edwin Anthony, El Prado, elusive quality, First Landing, Frizette, henrythenavigator, Hero's Honor, Hill Prince, Indian Summer, Java Gold, Jim Beam, La Troienne, medaglia d'oro, Mineshaft, Paulick Report, Pretty Discreet, Private Account, Rachel Alexandra, Ray Paulick, roar, Sea Hero, Speightstown, Sword Dancer, thoroughbred, Tom Rolfe, War Relic
Posted in Edwin Anthony Pedigree Report | No Comments »
Monday, January 5th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
“It’s hard to get half the people in this industry to agree on what day it is,” a Central Kentucky breeder said to me a couple of weeks ago, shortly after the Breeders’ Cup announced suspension of the stakes supplement program for 2009. “I can’t believe 83% of the people voting in your poll agreed that the Breeders’ Cup board made the wrong decision.”
The day after the results of the Daily Paulick Poll were reported (83% opposed the decision by the board of directors not to use cash reserves to fund the program, 10% supported it and 7% were unsure), the Breeders’ Cup reversed field, reinstating the stakes supplements – at least for 2009. Breeders’ Cup president Greg Avioli said he did not “anticipate the fervor of the response” to the original decision to suspend the program. Apparently, the poll results reflected the response Avioli and board members received in the way of telephone calls and emails from nominators to the Breeders’ Cup from around the country.
This wasn’t the first time judgments ran strong on an issue on which readers of the Paulick Report were asked to vote. The polls are not scientific, but the results are quite interesting and we are flattered by the daily response. This much we’ve learned: You’ve got opinions.
The most recent results, in fact, represent the strongest sentiment of any of the 40 polls we have conducted since just before the Breeders’ Cup World Championships in late October. (Click here to see archives of all the Daily Paulick Poll results.) We asked, “Does the National Thoroughbred Racing Association provide a strong central organization to move racing forward in the future?” The results have been stunning, with 94% saying “no” and only 6% answering “yes.”
In some ways, the question about the NTRA mirrored the results of earlier polls regarding the state of the industry and thoughts about some of the organizations that lead it. In mid-November, we asked, “In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the Thoroughbred industry in the United States at this time.” The question was parallel to the right track/wrong track question the Gallup organization periodically asks of American citizens about the state of the nation.
According to our poll, 91% answered “dissatisfied,” suggesting the industry is currently on the wrong track. Of the remainder, 4% said they were satisfied and 5% were unsure. One e-mailer suggested that the 4% who said they were satisfied must not have understood the question.
Along those same lines, in early December we asked, “Are you confident the individuals in charge of the most prominent racing and breeding organizations in the United States are adequately addressing the problems the industry is currently facing?” That resulted in an 85% no confidence vote, with 10% saying they are confident in our industry leaders and 5% unsure.
A specific question about one of the year’s biggest stories, the creation of the NTRA Safety and Integrity Alliance, indicated skepticism among voters. While 8% agreed that it was a “major step forward in the areas of medication and safety issues and will result in significant improvements” and 27% called it a “good idea, but it’s too early to say whether or not it will be effective,” fully 44% voted that the alliance was “designed to keep the federal government from stepping in and taking action” on safety and medication. Another 22% said it will be “ineffective because the NTRA lacks authority to enforce its recommendations.”
Poll responses to questions about how to improve the economics of racing were less conclusive. For example, we asked which of three areas of growth were most important to the future success of racing: reinvigorating on-track business, expanding account wagering through TV or on-line video streaming, or getting subsidies from slot machines or other forms of gaming. Reinvigorating on-track business got the most votes, 45% of respondents, barely ahead of the 41% who believe account wagering is the industry’s best hope. Only 14% believe growth from slots/alternative gaming is the answer. A more specific question about slot machines ended with a four-way dead heat, with each of the following answers getting 25% of the votes: 1) slots are a short-term fix to boost revenue; 2) they are a long-term necessity for racing to be competitive; 3) they are a necessary evil; and 4) I oppose slot machines at tracks.
On the issue of simulcast revenue, the poll run in conjunction with an article by Fred Pope on what he calls “ Priority 1: Racing’s Business Model” found 63% agreeing with Pope that host tracks and owners where the live race is run should get the lion’s share of takeout revenue. Another 29% believe it should be divided equally between the host site and where the bet is taken, and only 7% support the current model that leaves most of the revenue from simulcast wagers with the bet takers.
The level of takeout has been hotly debated in the comment sections of Pope’s article and several other related pieces. Our only poll question on the subject came after the Kentucky Horse Racing Task Force recommended an increase in takeout to help fund additional staff for the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission. Only 17% agreed with that recommendation, with 83% opposed to an increase in takeout to fund the commission.
We’ve touched on many other areas in our polls. For example, 55% of voters opposed Breeders’ Cup putting all of the filly and mare races on the Friday program of the two-day championships, with 18% in support and 27% taking a “wait and see” approach; 49% opposed having the Breeders’ Cup dirt races run on a synthetic track, while 39% supported it and 12% unsure. In the breeding world, in mid-December, 65% of voters said stud fees had not been reduced enough, 31% said the reductions were “about right,” and 4% felt they had been lowered too much. A comparison of the three highest-priced new stallions of 2009 found that Henrythenavigator offered greater value and opportunity for success to breeders than Curlin and Big Brown. The votes were 52% for Henrythenavigator, 44% for Curlin and 4% for Big Brown.
Finally, in light of the depressed bloodstock markets and a downward trend in pari-mutuel handle in 2008, a year-end poll asked readers if they believe 2009 will be a better year. Only 24% said they feel 2009 will be improved from 2008, with 52% saying it will be worse and 24% believing it will be the same.
Naturally, we hope our readers will be proven wrong and that 2009 will be a year that the industry addresses some of its biggest issues: organizational structure, leadership and a new business model that reflects the reality that roughly 10% of wagers are taken on-track where a race is being run. It’s clear there is a high level of discontent currently running throughout the industry, but it’s just as obvious that the passion to have racing stage a comeback is equally strong.
Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report
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Tags: Account Wagering, advance deposit wagering, ADW, Big Brown, Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup World Championships, Curlin, daily paulick poll, filly friday, fred pope, gallup poll, Greg Avioli, henrythenavigator, Horse Racing, kentucky horse racing task force, National Thoroughbred Racing Association, NTRA, ntra safety and integrity alliance, Paulick Report, priority 1: racing's business model, racing's business model, Ray Paulick, right track/wrong track, Simulcasting, stud fees, synthetic racetracks, takeout, Thoroughbred breeding, thoroughbreds
Posted in Account Wagering, Breeders' Cup, Breeding, Horse Racing, Horse Welfare, Industry, Industry Organizations, Industry Reform, National Thoroughbred Racing Association, Simulcasting, Slot machines, Synthetic surfaces, Thoroughbred Business | 15 Comments »
Wednesday, November 19th, 2008
By Ray Paulick
Lane’s End Farm is expected to announce that reigning Horse of the Year Curlin will enter stud at the Versailles, Ky., farm in 2009 for a live foal stud fee of $75,000, the Paulick Report has learned. Lane’s End is owned by William S. Farish, vice chairman of the Jockey Club and former ambassador to Great Britain for President George W. Bush.
Jess Jackson owns 80% of the son of Smart Strike—Sherriffs Deputy, by Deputy Minister, with the other 20% owned by the Midnight Cry Stable of disbarred attorneys Shirley Cunningham and William Gallion. That share has been the focus of a complicated legal battle resulting from a $42-million judgment against Cunningham and Gallion in a civil case. The two also face criminal charges.
Jackson and wife Barbara Banke have offered to buy Midnight Cry’s 20% for $4 million, based on an appraisal by bloodstock expert Ric Waldman that set a $20-million fair market value on Curlin. While Curlin may have been insured for an amount in excess of $40 million, Waldman’s appraisal took into account the current global economic crisis and recent trends in the bloodstock market. The just-concluded November breeding stock sale at Keeneland resulted in a 46% decline in gross revenues.
Jackson announced Nov. 15 that Curlin would enter stud in Kentucky in 2009, though he did not name a farm. At the time, he said various offers were being considered, and also indicated Curlin could become the first stallion to stand at the Stonestreet Farms in Lexington that he owns. The late-season announcement, made after matings for many broodmares already have been planned, may also have contributed to Waldman’s appraisal, which Andre Regard, an attorney for Gallion and Cunningham, said was below the horse’s true value.
No decision is expected on the Midnight Cry share of Curlin prior to a Dec. 1 court date in Franklin County, Ky. If a judge rules that the share should be sold to Jackson for $4 million, an appeal could extend the legal battle well into 2009.
It is believed Gainesway Farm was a “finalist” in the bidding for Curlin’s stud services. Jackson owns a large share of dual 2005 Classic winner Afleet Alex, who stands at Gainesway, owned by South African Graham Beck and run by his son, Antony. Jackson and the Beck family are both involved in the wine business, Jackson in California as the owner of Kendall-Jackson vineyards and the Becks primarily in South Africa. Jackson sells many of his horses through Gainesway and Taylor Made Sales Agency, which is also believed to have been a finalist to stand Curlin. Jackson also is part owner of 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, who stands at Adena Springs. It isn’t known whether Adena Springs, owned by Frank Stronach, actively recruited Curlin.
With a fee of $75,000, Curlin would be the highest-priced first-year stallion entering stud in Kentucky in 2009. Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown will stand at Three Chimneys Farm for $65,000, the same amount as Coolmore/Ashford’s multiple European Group 1 winner Henrythenavigator, who finished second to Raven’s Pass in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in which Curlin was fourth.
“Curlin has proven himself across two continents with 16 starts, the honor of 2007 Horse of the Year and the greatest North American money-earner in racing history,” Jackson said in the Nov. 15 announcement that Curlin would enter stud in 2009. “He always gave it his all and has done everything we have asked of him. I am proud to announce that he will start a new career in 2009 and contribute his soundness, stamina, durability and athleticism to the breed. I am looking forward to seeing his foals compete and possibly exceed his unequaled racing record.”
At the time of the announcement, Jackson said he would consider one more race in 2008 for Curlin if “an appropriate venue and purse are offered.” Curlin has been ruled out of the Clark Handicap at Churchill and Cigar Mile at Aqueduct, the two most likely races for him, so it’s extremely doubtful he will run again.
Curlin, who began his career under the care of Helen Pitts and was transferred to trainer Steve Asmussen after breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Park early in 2007, retires with record earnings of $10,501,800. He won 11 of 16 starts, with two seconds and two thirds. He won seven Grade 1 races: the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup, consecutive runnings of the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Woodward, Preakness and Stephen Foster Handicap. Bred in Kentucky by Fares Farm, he sold for $57,000 at the Keeneland September yearling sale. Jackson, Satish Sanan and George Bolton bought at 80% interest in Curlin through bloodstock agent John Moynihan for about $3 million after the colt’s maiden win. Jackson eventually bought Sanan and Bolton’s interests.
Curlin’s sire, Smart Strike, stands at Lane’s End for $150,000. Also joining the 2009 roster at Lane’s End is War Pass, the 2007 2-year-old male champion and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile who will stand for $30,000 live foal.
Kevin McGee, legal counsel for Jackson’s Kendall-Jackson Vineyards in California, would neither confirm nor deny that a deal with Lane’s End was imminent. Attempts to reach Will Farish were unsuccessful. Bill Farish, son of the Lane’s End owner, said he could not comment on the matter.
Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report
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Tags: adena springs, afleet alex, andre regard, ashford, barbara banke, Big Brown, Bill Farish, cigar mile, clark handicap, coolmore, coolmore/ashford, Curlin, dubai world cup, fares farm, Frank Stronach, gainesway, gainesway farm, george bolton, ghostzapper, helen pitts, henrythenavigator, horse of the year, horse of the year curlin, Horse Racing, jess jackson, jockey club gold cup, john moynihan, Keeneland, keeneland november breeding stock sale, kevin mcgee, Lane's End, midnight cry stable, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick, Ric Waldman, satish sanan, shirley cunningham, smart strike, steve asmussen, stonestreet farms, taylor made farm, taylor made sales agency, Thoroughbred industry, thoroughbred stallions, war pass, Will Farish, william gallion, William S. Farish
Posted in Breeding, Curlin, Horse Racing, Racing Greats, Stallions | 10 Comments »
Friday, October 24th, 2008
By Ray Paulick
Top to bottom, this may not be the most talented group of Breeders’ Cup horses that’s ever been assembled, but it’s the biggest handicapping challenge I can ever recall, especially considering new races like the Marathon, Turf Sprint, Dirt Mile and Juvenile Turf.
As mentioned yesterday, the Breeders’ Cup Web site has loads of good information, including race schedules and post times, wagering menu, free Equibase past performances, a useful wagering calculator, a list of simulcast locations and advice for beginners. You can bet the Breeders’ Cup races through any of the approved account wagering companies.
My handicapping philosophy is to beat the favorite whenever possible, since the average percentage of winning favorites is around 33%. You might discern from the following selections that I think the Europeans are going to have a big day on Saturday. The factors leading me to believe that will be true are 1) the synthetic surface that some Europeans train on; 2) the tighter medication rules that specifically ban anabolic steroids for the first time; 3) the quality of European horses being sent to this year’s event.
Here’s my advance prognostication on the day’s nine championship races. Good luck and safe racing to all.
Special note: please be sure to check back in to the Paulick Report, beginning around 3 p.m. Eastern, for my live blog of Filly Friday. I’ll also be live blogging Saturday’s nine races, beginning at 1 p.m. Eastern.
Marathon
This looks like a two-horse race between European runner Sixties Icon and Zappa (whose namesake, the late rocker Frank Zappa, was the founder of the Mothers of Invention and was a real-life sixties icon). That works for me, but it’s an all chalk exacta. I give the edge to Sixties Icon, in part because of jockey Frankie Dettori’s experience edge at mile and a half races. Zappa is sharp and may try to steal the race under Garrett Gomez. Muhannak has plenty of synthetic track experience in Europe and likes the distance. Cedar Mountain will be closing late.
Selections: 1-Sixties Icon 2-Zappa 3-Muhannak 4- Cedar Mountain
Turf Sprint
One of the great things about the Breeders’ Cup is finding a horse you absolutely love and then discovering that it’s a longshot. That’s the case with Only Answer, a French-based filly in the care of the legendary horseman Andre Fabre, who is in top echelon of Breeders’ Cup trainers. I think she has an excellent chance to beat the boys in this spot, and Santa Anita’s ace morning line maker Jeff Tufts has her pegged at 20-1 on the morning line. Jockey Olivier Peslier, in my opinion, is as good a big-race rider as there is in the world, and he knows this filly well. The downhill turf course is a tricky one for horse and rider, with the run across the main track causing difficulty for some. It’s one of the best “horses for the course” plays in racing, which makes local runners California Flag and Get Funky formidable challengers in here. Fleeting Spirit has a lot of class, as does Diabolical, either of whom are good enough on their best days to win. I’m going for the price play.
Selections: 1-Only Answer 2-Fleeting Spirit 3-Get Funky 4-Diabolical
Dirt Mile
The status of Mast Track is in doubt as I write this, and I would be very surprised if trainer and owner Robert Frankel runs him on Saturday. If he is scratched, that’s going to make things a lot easier for Well Armed, a Tiznow gelding who seems to have found a perfect spot here, though I’d prefer him to have drawn more of an inside post position. The Eoin Harty runner can go to the lead or rate, depending on the circumstances, and the mile distance suits him perfectly. Surf Cat should be more effective at this distance, too, after running dull races in his last two starts. Bruce Headley has tightened the veteran up with some quick works. No one seems to have more confidence in his horse than Wayne Catalano, and there’s a lot to like about Lewis Michael, who grabs the advantageous rail post. Pyro’s a tough one to assess in here. His only synthetic track try at Keeneland was a disaster, but all synthetic tracks aren’t the same.
Selections: 1-Well Armed 2-Surf Cat 3-Lewis Michael 4-Pyro
Turf Mile
Irish-bred filly Goldikova has made few mistakes in her eight-race career for French trainer Freddie Head, who has enough confidence to run her against colts here at her best distance. She’s drawn perfectly in the four post and has big-race rider Olivier Peslier in the saddle. It’s not the strongest Mile field we’ve seen. Shakis is a game old-timer who always finishes with a rush. If Alan Garcia can avoid traffic problems from the rail, he won’t be far away at the finish. Kip Deville ran a puzzler last time out in Canada on a yielding track for Rick Dutrow. I’d throw that race out as he goes for a defense of his crown. U S Ranger doesn’t win very many but usually gets up for a share of the money and has been facing tough company all year. Whatsthescript got an impossible post position on the outside.
Selections: 1-Goldikova 2-Shakis 3-Kip Deville 4-U S Ranger
Juvenile
Post positions really come into play here, with the two horses I like the most, Bushranger and Midshipman, drawn way outside, a distinct disadvantage in the relatively short run to the first turn. Munnings, who has chased juvenile division leader Vineyard Haven (not entered in the Breeders’ Cup by trainer Robert Frankel) in his last two starts, draws the much friendlier rail post for his first try around two turns. That’s enough to give him the edge in this spot for trainer Todd Pletcher, especially in a race without much early speed. The son of Speightstown should get the best trip under John Velazquez. Bushranger may be the best horse and he’ll have to be overcome his 11 post. Street Hero has been steady since breaking his maiden in June and remains in top form for Myung Kwon Cho.
Selections: 1-Munnings 2-Bushranger 3-Midshipman 4-Street Hero
Juvenile Turf
Westphalia looks to me like the obvious choice here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is bet down to near favoritism from his 5-1 morning line. He’s in top form and has had a bit of a rest since his last win at Doncaster in mid-September. Coronet of a Baron obviously has is precocious and talented, and the shift from synthetic to turf by trainer Eoin Harty is an interesting move. Darley already has Midshipman going in the Juvenile and this gives them a good chance to sweep the two races. Of course, arch-rival Coolmore has Bushranger in the Juvenile and Westphalia in here, giving them a strong hand as well. The Darley-Coolmore rivalry will be interesting to follow throughout the two days. Bittel Road is unbeaten on turf and is the morning line choice, but he hasn’t seen this kind of competition yet. Donativum is in the more than capable hands of trainer John Gosden, who knows how to have a horse at peak form when it matters most.
Selections: 1-Westphalia 2-Coronet of a Baron 3-Bittel Road 4-Donativum
Sprint
Smallest number of runners in this race since 1986, obviously a byproduct of two new races: the Filly and Mare Sprint and Dirt Mile. I doubt that defending champ Midnight Lute scared anyone away based on his only start of the year, a dismal 10th in the Pat O’Brien at Del Mar. He’s worked sensationally for Bob Baffert since then, but it’s hard to see him up sharp enough to beat the likes of Street Boss or In Summation. I give the clear nod here to the California horses, led by the Bruce Headley-trained Street Boss. My intuition tells me Bruce Headley didn’t have the son of Street Cry cranked to the max for the Ancient Title when second to Cost of Freedom, and recent works suggest he’s ready to roll here. In Summation is a thorough professional who can be counted on to run his race. Midnight Lute will be running late. Fatal Bullet has the best chance of upsetting the local horses’ applecart.
Selections: 1-Street Boss 2- In Summation 3-Midnight Lute 4-Fatal Bullet
Turf
While Europe’s bigshots were locking horns in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Oct. 5, Mike de Kock was bringing the top-class Eagle Mountain back to the races from a fractured pelvis and year layoff at Newmarket. The Rock of Gibraltor colt won the comeback, a Group 3 race at Newmarket, and some big money subsequently came in on the horse with a British bookmaker to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf. The former Coolmore/Aidan O’Brien runner looked sharp in a morning spin at Santa Anita is primed for a big effort. Soldier of Fortune comes off a hard-fought defeat for O’Brien in the Arc. That was just his third race of the year and he might have another good one in him. Winchester turned in a monstrous performance at Arlington Park to win the Secretariat for Dermot Weld, far surpassing his European form. This is a big step up, but he showed a fondness for American style racing in that effort. Conduit completes my all- European superfecta. American turf horses appear weak again this year, but let’s not forget how English Channel romped in the 2007 Turf over supposedly superior Europeans.
Selections: 1-Eagle Mountain 2-Soldier of Fortune 3-Winchester 4-Conduit
Classic
By the time the finale rolls around, we should have a pretty good idea how European turf horses have adapted to Santa Anita’s synthetic Pro-Ride surface. I don’t have the benefit of knowing that right now, so I can only speculate how Duke of Marmalade, Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass will take to the track. But I guess we can say the same thing about Curlin, who has trained well on the track but never raced on a synthetic strip. Curlin may be the best horse we’ve seen in the last 10 years, in terms of his accomplishments if not his brilliance. But based on his last two victories over relatively weak competition, I think he’s beatable here. But who will beat him? Go Between, a synthetic track specialist who’s logged thousands of miles this year going from coast to coast? Casino Drive, the unbeaten but lightly raced, Japanese-trained sibling to two previous Belmont Stakes winners? Colonel John, the best 3-year-old in training following the retirement of Big Brown? The Aidan O’Brien duo of Duke of Marmalade and Henrythenavigator, who have combined for nine Group 1 victories on European turf this year? All have a realistic chance, but I’m taking the John Gosden-trained Raven’s Pass for the upset under Frankie Dettori. The Elusive Quality 3-year-old colt hasn’t gone beyond a mile, but Gosden knows from his previous experience in California that most top-class Europeans can stretch their ability out in the U.S. Raven’s Pass has had a month off since defeating Henrythenavigator in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and is in absolute top form. Curlin will run hard as always, but he’s had a long year for trainer Steve Asmussen. Go Between is a steady performer for Mott, who’s handled him intelligently all year. Colonel John may be the best 3-year-old, but the jury is still out on how good this year’s sophomore crop really is.
Selections: 1-Raven’s Pass 2-Curlin 3-Go Between 4-Colonel John
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Tags: aiden o'brien, andre fabre, Big Brown, bittel road, Bob Baffert, Breeders' Cup, breeders' cup handicapping, breeders' cup selections, breeders' cup wagering, Breeders' Cup World Championships, bruce headley, bushranger, casino drive, colonel john, conduit, coolmore, coronet of a baron, cost of freedom, Curlin, darley, dermot weld, dirt mile, duke of marmalade, eagle mountain, eoin harty, Fatal Bullet, fleeting spirit, frank zappa, freddie head, free past performances, get funky, go between, goldikova, handicapping the breeders' cup, henrythenavigator, Horse Racing, in summation, john gosden, juvenile, juvenile turf, kip deville, lewis michael, marathon, mast track, michael de kock, michael stoute, midnight lute, midshipman, mile, mothers of invention, muhannak, olivier peslier, only answer, pari-mutuel wagering, Paulick Report, pyro, raven's pass, Ray Paulick, rick dutrow, robert frankel, shakis, sixties icon, soldier of fortune, sprint, street boss, surf cat, todd pletcher, turf spring, u s ranger, well armed, westphalia, winchester, zappa
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