Posts Tagged ‘gulfstream park’

On Saturday, Gulfstream Park will host its signature day of the winter/spring meet by presenting five graded stakes on the 12-race program, highlighted by the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Trainer Todd Pletcher’s Rule heads up a field of 11 in the Florida Derby. The son of Roman Ruler brings a 4-race win streak into this 1 1/8-mile contest in which it will be the first time he has gone beyond 1 1/16 miles. The only other entrant with enough stakes earnings to make it into the Kentucky Derby field is Radiohead, trained by Rick Dutrow.

The graded stakes action begins in the 7th race with the running of the 1 1/8-mile Bonnie Miss, a G2 for 3-year-old fillies on the dirt. The small but very contentious field has attracted Amen Hallelujah, who comes off a winning performance in the G2 Davona Dale, rolling home by 6 ¼ lengths. The highly-regarded Christine Daae steps up into stakes company after an allowance win.

The Bonnie Miss is followed by the G3 Rampart, then the G3 Appleton. The Swale, a G2 seven-furlong sprint for 3-year-olds precedes the Florida Derby. In the Rampart, it’s hard to see past Unrivaled Belle; she had three consecutive wins last year on dirt and in her most recent outing, she took on stiffer competition in the G2 La Canada at Santa Anita where she finished fourth on the synthetic surface. Others to watch in this 1 1/8-mile contest are a pair from the Marty Wolfson barn, Miss Singhsix and Champagne Eyes.

The Appleton has a field of nine older horses going postward on the turf at 7 ½ furlongs. Kiss the Kid, at 5-2, is the slight morning-line favorite over Rahy’s Attorney who is 3-1. Rick Dutrow has D’Funnybone in the Swale; the highweight under Edgar Prado, he will be the one to beat, coming off an impressive winning effort in the G2 Hutcheson last month.

Graded stakes presented at Santa Anita this weekend will be Saturday’s 1 ½-mile marathon G2 San Luis Rey for 4-year-olds and up, and on Sunday, the Santa Ana (G3) for older fillies going 1 1/8 miles. Both events are on the turf. Neil Drysdale could have a big weekend with Bourbon Bay in San Luis Rey and Cat by the Tale in the Santa Ana. San Luis Obispo (G2) winner Bourbon Bay faces a field of ten, including Unusual Suspect and Sudden War, second and third in the San Luis Obispo. Tuscan Evening will be favored in the Santa Ana, and indeed, she has beaten Cat by the Tale twice at a flat mile, but perhaps the tables will be turned at the longer distance.

New York has been hit especially hard by adverse weather conditions during this Aqueduct meet. Last week’s G3 Cicada was rescheduled for this week and will hopefully go off without a hitch. Bickersons, the only graded stakes winner in the race is the 7-5 favorite. She won the G2 Forward Gal, and followed that up with a fourth-place finish in the G2 Davona Dale, where she was beaten by the red hot Amen Hallelujah.

There have been concerns all week about a possible storm hitting Southern California on Santa Anita Handicap day, but the current forecast calls for only light rain in late afternoon and on Saturday night, so the Big ‘Cap show will go on without the threat of cancellation due to drainage problems on the synthetic main track that have plagued the current meet.

Santa Anita’s 11-race card featuring four graded stakes gets off to an early start, with a noon local or 3 p.m. Eastern first post. The Santa Anita Handicap goes as the 10th race, with an approximate post time of 8:02 Eastern.
 
With high weight in this handicap assigned just 117 pounds, it’s clear there is no standout in the Big ‘Cap field, but it’s an outstanding betting race with 14 starters and many serious contenders. The 5-year-old mare St. Trinians was installed the 7-2 morning line favorite off the strength of four consecutive victories since coming to the United States from England and joining the barn of trainer Mike Mitchell, her last win coming in the Grade 1 Santa Maria Handicap. No filly or mare has ever won the Big ‘Cap.

French import Loup Breton, winner of the San Marcos in his third American start for trainer Julio Canani, is second choice on the morning line at 4-1. He’ll be making his first start on synthetics after racing on turf throughout his career.

Dakota Phone, beaten at head last out at 34-1 in the San Antonio Handicap by Richards Kid, gives trainer Jerry Hollendorfer a chance to sweep two Grade 1 races on the card. He’s 20-1 on the morning line in the Big ‘Cap but has to be considered off that last race, while the top-class 3-year-old filly Blind Luck looks to have her six rivals over a barrel in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks as the 1-2 morning favorite. The daughter of Pollard’s Vision was 1-5 when she won the Grade 1 Las Virgenes last time out by a nose, getting a favorable head bob at the wire to beat longshot Evening Jewel, who is not in the Oaks lineup.

The Oaks goes at 6:57 p.m. Eastern time.

The third Grade 1 of the card, the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap, is topped by Ever a Friend, who gives the aforementioned Mitchell a chance for two Grade 1 victories on the day, heady stuff for the longtime claiming trainer. The Kilroe, scheduled on turf, goes at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.

The final graded stakes on the Big ‘Cap card is the rescheduled Sham Stakes for 3-year-olds, a Grade 3 event at 1 1/8 miles on the synthetic track. Nextdoorneighbor is the tepid 3-1 morning line choice but don’t overlook Eoin Harty-trained Kettle River. The son of Congaree comes off a hard-fought allowance win in his third career start. The Sham is schedule at 6:24 p.m. Eastern.

All the Santa Anita races will be shown on HRTV.

By Ray Paulick
Every now and then you see a pedigree that brings back great memories, and that was the case for me when looking at the results of last Saturday’s Grade 3 Sabin Stakes on the main track at Gulfstream Park.

The winner, Aurora Lights, was winning her first American Graded Stakes in the Sabin, although she captured last year’s Canadian Grade 3 Selene Stakes as a 3-year-old. The daughter of Pulpit out of the Lord At War mare, Lady Lochinvar, races for the Chiefswood Stables of Canadian investment banker Robert Krembil and his son, Mark. They bought her for $800,000 during Tuesday’s select session of the 2007 Keeneland September yearling sale from Darby Dan Farm, agent for breeders Mr. and Mrs. Larry D. Williams.

Pulpit, a son of A.P. Indy who has gone on to be  a very successful sire at Claiborne Farm, was an exciting racehorse whose career was cut short by an injury while running fourth to Silver Charm in the 1997 Kentucky Derby. The Derby was his sixth and final career starts—all as a 3-year-old. He had earlier American Graded Stakes victories in the Fountain of Youth and Blue Grass Stakes.

But it’s the female side of Aurora Lights’ pedigree that really brings back the memories for me. Lady Lochinvar was bred by the Wimborne Farm of Diane  Perkins, who raced Lord At War and stood him to a very successful career at stud. Lady Winborne (spelled differently than Wimborne Farm), the dam of Lady Lochinvar, was an exceptional broodmare, producing 15 foals, 12 of which started and won. Among those foals are American Graded Stakes winners Al Mamoon, La Gueriere (herself an outstanding broodmare), and Lost Soldier, plus two other stakes winners.

Lady Winborne was sired by Triple Crown winner Secretariat out of Priceless Gem, who beat the great Buckpasser as a 2-year-old. Priceless Gem, by Hail to Reason, was produced by the Hall of Fame mare Searching. The female pedigree traces back to one of the most influential broodmares of all time, La Troienne.

It goes without saying that Aurora Lights has the pedigree and now the racing record to be a very valuable broodmare in the future.

I can’t say that I remember Priceless Gem’s defeat of Buckpasser, though I do remember as though it was yesterday when Lord At War won the 1985 Santa Anita Handicap for trainer Peter and Diane Perkins, trainer Charlie Whittingham, and jockey Bill Shoemaker.

Shoemaker had to choose between two horses for that year’s Big ‘Cap, Greinton, who was part-owned by Whittingham and trained by the Bald Eagle, and Lord At War, who was imported from his native Argentina the previous year and came into the race with four consecutive victories. Shoemaker made the right choice, going with Lord At War, giving the Hall of Fame jockey the 11th and last Big ‘Cap victory of his career. It was the sixth win in  Santa Anita’s big race for Whittingham, who would come back to win it the following year with Greinton and get his eighth and final Big ‘Cap with Sir Beaufort in 1993.

As great as it was to see Shoemaker and Whittingham carry the day in 1985, the amazing thing about that year’s Big ‘Cap was the crowd: an all-time Santa Anita record attendance of  85,527. It wasn’t Lord At War they came out to see, it was the race itself, which Santa Anita’s creative marketing director, Alan Balch, promoted heavily as THE day to come out to the races in Southern California.

This Saturday will mark the 73rd running of the Arcadia, Calif., track’s signature event. And while the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap may not be the race it once was, with the Dubai World Cup later this month taking away some of the best horses, it’s still a race that’s worth a lot more than just memories.

A field of 14 will go in this year’s $750,000 Big ‘Cap, and though the turnout will be south of 85,527, there will still be a roar from the crowd when the horses break from the starting gate at the top of the stretch for the mile and a quarter run, just as there was back in 1935, when Azucar won the first edition of this great race.

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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By Ray Paulick
The Florida Thoroughbred Breeders’ and Owners’ Association published a slick brochure a few years ago titled “On Course,” heralding all the good things going on with horse racing and breeding in the Sunshine State. But the organization might want to rethink that title if it publishes an updated version in 2010.

With only a few exceptions where revenue from other forms of gambling has helped ease a business down cycle, most racing and breeding states are hurting. But Florida seems to have been stung the worst by a combination of the global economic crisis, a collapsing real estate market, and the decline in the economics and popularity of Thoroughbred racing.

A more accurate name for that updated FTBOA brochure might be “Off Track.”

Consider that:

- The number of mares being bred and Thoroughbred stallions standing in Florida have fallen faster than any other state, dropping by 23.3% and 24.0%, respectively, from 2008 to 2009. Further declines are expected in both categories in 2010.

- Florida’s foal crop, historically the second-largest in the United States behind Kentucky, has dropped from a high of 4,511 in 2003 to a projected 2,600 in 2010—a decline of 42%. It is conceivable states like Louisiana or Pennsylvania, with more lucrative breeders’ incentive programs, could surpass Florida in foal production in the next few years.

- A number of large stallion operations, including the Sanan family’s Padua and Frank Stronach’s Adena Springs, have pulled out of Florida.

- Numerous Thoroughbred farms are listed as “for sale” in the Ocala area of Marion County, the self-proclaimed “Horse Capital of the World.”

- The declines in Florida breeding have come after 2004 legislation was passed and a statewide referendum supported a constitutional amendment permitting racetracks in Dade and Broward counties to install slot machines if they got local-option approval. Both Gulfstream Park and Calder in South Florida now have casinos with slot machines.

SEEKING LEGISLATIVE HELP
Help could be on the way. The 2010 legislative session begins today (March 2) in the state capital in Tallahassee, and gambling legislation is high on the list of priorities of legislators and lame-duck Republican Gov. Charlie Crist, who is in the midst of a heated primary battle for a U.S. Senate seat.

The two South Florida racetracks, Florida breeders, and the Florida Horsemen’s Benevolent and Protective Association are pushing for a reduction in the slot machine tax rate from 50% to 35%, a move that, according to the FHBPA’s Kent Stirling, would nearly double the amount of money going into purses from slot machine revenue.

“Everything is fueled by purses, and things look good to get this tax reduced,” Stirling told the Paulick Report. “That should right things. I don’t envision that happening until July 1, but it will certainly help. We’re one of a number of states in a crisis right now with purses that don’t stand up. If we don’t have the purses, you won’t breed the horses.”

Stirling said 6.75% of gross revenue from slots currently go to overnight purses, with breeders getting an additional 0.75%. If the tax rate is reduced from 50% to 35%, he said, purses will get an extra 5.25%, and the amount going to breeders would increase to 1.2%.

“The deal we would get for purses will be very good for horsemen,” Stirling said. “We have long-term contracts signed with the racetracks.”

One concern Stirling and others have is whether South Florida can support the number of slots casinos in the region: the Seminole Tribe operates a massive Hard Rock casino not far from Gulfstream Park; there is the Pompano Isle of Capri harness track in Pompano Beach; Mardi Gras (the former Hollywood Dog Track near Gulfstream Park; and other Indian casinos in the region, in addition to Gulfstream and Calder.

Legislation being proposed also may include a provision giving the FTBOA flexibility in how it distributes its breeders’ awards program, allow Hialeah Park to operate a slots casino, and create a permit to operate a not-for-profit race meeting in Ocala/Marion County.

But a deal with racetracks is only part of the gaming legislation in the works. Still unresolved is a compact with the Seminoles after a proposal by Crist that was tied to a tax break for pari-mutuel slots was rejected by the legislature. That proposal would have given the Seminoles a full-blown casino monopoly outside of South Florida. The tribe has offered casino games without a compact, something the federal government’s National Indian Gaming Commission said is illegal. Earlier this year a House committee rejected Crist’s compact unanimously and voted to uncouple pari-mutuel legislation from any deal with the Seminoles.

Crist’s proposal, though ultimately thrown out, was unsettling to Peter Berube, who runs Stella Thayer’s Tampa Bay Downs, which has seen its business hurt by a second Hard Rock Casino run by the Seminoles not far from the track in Tampa.

“Obviously we are looking for some type of product that’s going to even out the uneven field we face with the Seminoles and the slots in South Florida,” Berube said. “I’m at a very serious competitive disadvantage at this time.”

Berube said there is a separate push to allow every one of the state’s 22 pari-mutuel facilities outside of South Florida to get a total of 1,500 slot machines. A study showed the state would receive $400 million in taxes (based on a 35% rate) versus the $150 million the state would get from a compact with the Seminoles. “And we feel our numbers were very conservative,” he said of the study done by the Innovation Group.

Berube said he is not betting on a positive result. “I gave up trying to handicap Florida politics a long time ago,” he said. “I am somewhat encouraged by what’s going on up there (in Tallahassee) and some of the rhetoric.” A previous attempt by Tampa Bay to get approval for Instant Racing machines, which saved Oaklawn Park, failed to get legislative support.

“Our industry is in tatters here in Florida; it’s abysmal what’s taking place, especially when you are in proximity to Indian gaming,” said Berube. “I’ve seen a decline of 22% from 2008 to 2009 in the Tampa area. Statewide it’s fallen 14%. Nationally, the numbers are down 11% on pari-mutuel wagering. There’s a direct correlation to the Seminoles. We are suffering more. We’ve been here for 80 years, and it would be a shame for this business to go under.”

Tampa Bay is one of the nation’s most progressive tracks, lowering takeout and offering a very good wagering product. Still, he said, the track depends largely on off-season simulcasting, and he’s seen that fall by 42% because of the increased competition from the Seminoles.

CRITICS FORM GRASSROOTS MOVEMENT
Richard Hancock, executive vice president of the FTBOA, said he is confident the legislature will approve a tax reduction on South Florida’s racetrack slots and give the FTBOA flexibility in its distribution of breeders awards. “One thing I’m not happy with is Tampa Bay Downs,” he said. “They need the same help that the Dade and Broward County tracks got. The pari-mutuels there will get killed if the Seminoles expand any more.”

Hancock has been the FTBOA’s top executive for going on 20 years. He’s got his supporters, especially those on the organization’s board, but he also has an increasingly vocal group of detractors. “We’ve gone from $3 million to $15 million in incentives,” Hancock said, in defending his work with the FTBOA. “We’ve been successful and grown the pie quite a bit.”

Detractors say Hancock has not been effective in Tallahassee in getting the message out about the Thoroughbred industry’s needs and has facilitated board members in running the organization like a private club that has been unresponsive to rank-and-file breeders.

Among Hancock’s loudest critics is Ocala horse insurance agent Gordon Reiss, who helped put together a grassroots organization, the Florida Horseman’s Task Force, that began speaking out at FTBOA open house meetings, attended FTBOA board meetings, and traveled to Tallahassee, met with legislators, and organized breeders to call on their representatives to educate them about the Thoroughbred industry. Reiss said the group helped get House Speaker Larry Cretul, an Ocala Republican, to speak at a recent meeting of the Florida Thoroughbred Farm Managers.

“Legislators had no clue about the impact on the horse industry of Indian casinos,” Reiss said. “They saw horse farms as playgrounds for millionaires. Our meetings with them have made a difference.”

Reiss and others, including Bob Monahan, Bebe Luxon and Dr. Ignacio Leon, told the Paulick Report the FTBOA lacks transparency in much of what it does, communicates poorly with members (despite owning a daily publication, Wire to Wire, and the monthly Florida Horse magazine), and has questionable procedures for board elections. Hancock was accused by the group of keeping the board in the dark on issues like the Instant Racing legislation and making important decisions without consulting the board.

Hancock said Reiss is upset in part because he failed to win election to the board.

He does acknowledge, however, that the grassroots movement has been beneficial. “They actually were of some help in letting people in Tallahassee know how desperate things are down here,” Hancock said. “All the stories they told the legislators about horses and people moving to places like Pennsylvania or New York. I have to say it was helpful in getting the attention of the Pari-Mutuel Committee in the House.”

“The loss of 3,000 mares has taken $75 million to $100 million out of the local economy,” Reiss said. “Land values have dropped considerably, and the bank credit squeeze has hurt. Purses are terrible, and there is a lack of leadership. It got to the point where we couldn’t depend on the FTBOA and felt a grassroots movement was necessary.”

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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By Ray Paulick
Flanders, the 1994 Eclipse Award-winning juvenile filly who defeated stablemate Serena’s Song in one of the most exciting editions of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies ever run, was euthanized in mid-February after complications arose following a paddock accident in December at Coolmore’s Ashford Stud in Kentucky.

The daughter of Seeking the Gold out of the Storm Bird mare Starlet Storm had been purchased by Coolmore boss John Magnier for $400,000 from the Overbrook Farm dispersal, with Eaton Sales as agent, during the Keeneland November breeding stock sale in 2009. She was 18 at the time of her death.

Bred and owned by the late William T. Young’s Overbrook Farm and trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Flanders finished first in all five of her starts at two, including four Grade 1 races—the Spinaway, Matron, Frizette and Juvenile Fillies. A positive test for the therapeutic medication isoxsuprine, used for circulation problems in a horse’s foot—disqualified Flanders from her victory in the Matron.

While she finished first by a combined margin of 36 1/2 lengths in her first four races (including a 21-length win in the Frizette), it was her duel against Serena’s Song–who went on to win an Eclipse Award the following year and later induction into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame—that endeared Flanders to so many racing fans and horsemen. Hooked throughout the 1 1/16-mile Juvenile Fillies by Serena’s Song and appearing beaten in the final furlong, Flanders dug down and battled back to win by a head over her stablemate in what proved to be her final race. She pulled up lame under jockey Pat Day after the finish and never made it back to the winner’s circle. Flanders had surgery the following day for a displaced condylar fracture of the cannon bone and an axial fracture of the sesamoid in her right front ankle. She was subsequently retired to Overbrook Farm.

Click here to see a video of the Flanders-Serena’s Song duel in the Breeders’ Cup.

Flanders’ first foal, Surfside, a daughter of Seattle Slew went on to be a multiple Grade 1 winner and champion 3-year-old filly of 2000. She produced several other winners, including Battle Plan, a 5-year-old son of Empire Maker who has won three of four starts for trainer Todd Pletcher and is aiming for the Oaklawn Park Handicap this spring following an impressive allowance win at Gulfstream Park Feb. 18. He is one of a small number of horses bred by Overbrook that were not included in the dispersal.

Flanders produced a Bernardini colt last month, but developed complications from the paddock accident and could not be saved. Thoroughbred Times reported she developed laminitis. The colt has been placed with a nursemare.

“Flanders was a gorgeous mare,” said Chris Young, the grandson of William T. Young who manages the remaining Overbrook horses. “She was one of my absolute favorites—probably had the best personality of any mare I’ve ever been around. I understand she was the one mare John Magnier really wanted from our dispersal, and it’s really a shame they lost her.”

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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Just a smattering of graded stakes action will take place this weekend. Saturday’s Santa Anita card features the Grade 3 Sham for 3-year-olds and though the field has no graded stakes winners in it, an outstanding showing at the 1 1/8-mile distance could put the winner in the Derby picture. Bob Baffert’s The Program, a son of Harlan’s Holiday, won an allowance race by a nose on Feb. 3 and hopes to improve off that. Also in the entries is Kettle River, from Eoin Harty’s barn; due to illness, Kettle River missed a week of training but Harty thinks he up to this task.

Fillies and mares will be in the spotlight on Saturday at Gulfstream Park when three graded stakes will be presented—the G2 Davona Dale, G3 The Very One and G3 Sabin. The Davona Dale, for 3-year-olds at a mile on the dirt, has attracted a contentious field of eight, including Bickersons, who recently ran away in the Forward Gal, defeating Eclipse Award champ She Be Wild. Also entered is Amen Hallelujah, off a winning performance in the G2 Santa Ynez at Santa Anita, and Sassy Image, who brings a three-race win streak into the Davona Dale.

None of the starters in The Very One have won a turf race at the 1 3/8-mile distance, but that didn’t seem to be a discouragement, as an overflow field of 14 was entered. Among the starters are Lady Shakespeare, runner-up in the Marshua’s River, Long Approach, second in the G2 La Prevoyante last spring, and Glen Hill Farm’s homebred Closeout, who most recently finished fourth in the Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf at Santa Anita.

Jessica Is Back is entered for the main track only in The Very One, but she will likely start in the one-mile Sabin, a contest on the dirt for older females. The 6-year-old daughter of Put It Back will have to face Justwhistledixie, 2009 winner of the Davona Dale and Bonnie Miss, whose last out was a fourth-place finish over Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride surface in the G2 El Encino.

On Sunday at Gulfstream Park, older males will take to the turf in the G2 Mac Diarmida. Like The Very One, the Mac Diarmida is also run at 1 3/8 miles, and has drawn a field of eight with one also-eligible if the race is taken off the turf. Presious Passion hopes to use this race as a springboard to the Dubai Sheema Classic, to be run in a month from now. The 7-year-old gelding will attempt to defend his 2009 Mac Diarmida title; he was runner-up to Conduit in the Breeders’ Cup Turf and finished fifth in his 2010 debut while trying for his third straight W.L. McKnight victory at Calder.

Due to wind and rain, live racing is cancelled at Aqueduct Friday, Feb. 26 and Saturday, the 27th.

By Ray Paulick
Todd Pletcher isn’t the only who had a big weekend last week, winning three American Graded Stakes races for 3-year-olds on Feb. 20: the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park with Eskendereya, the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds with Discreetly Mine, and the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields with Connemara.

Coolmore Ashford’s Giant’s Causeway sired two of the Pletcher-trained AGS winners, Eskendereya and Connemara, giving the 13-year-old Storm Cat stallion a total of three AGS winners thus far in 2010 (San Pasqual Handicap winner Neko Bay is the other one). For good measure, another top 3-year-old prospect by Giant’s Causeway, Northern Giant, finished a solid third for Pletcher’s mentor, Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, in the Risen Star. Only 16 days earlier, Northern Giant turned in a huge effort winning an Oaklawn Park maiden race by 11 1/4 lengths. He’s obviously a slow developing colt, the win coming in his sixth start.

On the strength of those AGS winners, Giant’s Causeway is atop the general sire list thus far in 2010 after being leading North American sire in 2009 for the first time since his first crop reached the racetrack in 2004. He was a truly outstanding racehorse and it’s no surprise that he’s developed into an elite sire. Giant’s Causeway has yet to sire his first American classic winner, but Eskendereya, who moved to the top of many Kentucky Derby lists with his Fountain of Youth victory, could easily change that.

With his weekend victories, trainer Pletcher now has won eight AGS races of 2010 with seven different horses. That’s 16% of the 50 AGS races run so far this year. Pletcher is on a brief “vacation” now, the result of a suspension stemming from a positive test at the 2008 Breeders’ Cup. His stable is deep in talent, is coming off a very strong 2009, and is ranked as the leading trainer by money won so far in 2010 (with reigning Eclipse Award winner Steven Asmussen in hot pursuit) while winning at a 27% clip. With Quality Road leading the way in the older male division, an incredibly deep roster of 3-year-old talent, and undoubtedly a talented group of 2-year-olds now going through early training, this could be a year to remember for Pletcher.

The saga of Ahmed Zayat’s Zayat Stables and the Fifth Third Bank that sued the stable took an interesting turn over the weekend when Eskendereya ran away and hid from nine rivals in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Just as Fifth Third was pushing for the authority to take over and manage the Zayat Stable assets, Eskendereya, one of those assets, exploded in value with his overpowering 8 1/2-length victory that vaulted him to the top of numerous rankings of Kentucky Derby contenders, including my own. At this stage of the dispute, it would be difficult to convince a bankruptcy court judge that a bank would do a better job managing a racing stable than the team that Zayat has assembled over the last several years, when he has ranked among the leading owners in North America, retired two top stallion prospects to the breeding shed (multiple Grade 1 winner Zensational and Kentucky Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile) and developed a leading candidate for the 2010 Kentucky Derby. The bank most recently dropped their demand for a trustee to be appointed to manage the assets.

So Zayat, despite filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, holds some pretty good cards in his hand right now, led by the ace of the stable, Eskendereya, whose value probably increased tenfold with that Fountain of Youth victory.

Under normal circumstances, offers from stallion farms would start flooding in on a horse like Eskendereya, considering how he dismantled a good field and the pedigree he carries (Giant’s Causeway out of a Seattle Slew mare). But if the horse is worth $5 million or more and Zayat decides to sell all or part of him, how much of a dent would that put on the reported $34 million he is said ot owe Fifth Third? Probably not enough to convince Zayat to sell, especially given his personal quest to win big races like the Kentucky Derby. Besides, if Eskendereya runs the table and wins the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown (and we’re not making that prediction), he’s probably worth tens of millions of dollars and closer to bailing Zayat out in one fell swoop.

On the other side of this rather expensive coin is the grim reality that what goes up also can come down. If Eskendereya is worth $5 million today after a Grade 2 victory, what would he be worth if he throws in a clunker next time out and fails to hit the board? Answer: a lot less than what he is worth today.

Zayat is a gambler, both at the betting windows and in the auction ring. He’s gambled tens of millions of dollars that he can increase the value of his bloodstock assets, and I would bet that he will not be willing to sell a cherished property like Eskendereya as long as there is more upside available. His track record in the horse business suggests he does not sell on the way up.

I think it goes without saying Fifth Third would like Zayat to monetize some assets, but he is currently holding the cards. 

Click here for Ray’s Under The Raydar segment

Following is my latest top 10 horses for the Paulick Derby Index:
 
1. Eskendereya. Leader of Todd’s Squad, perhaps the strongest group of horses multiple Eclipse Award-winning trainer Todd Pletcher has ever had in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby, where his futility is well documented. Pletcher will win more than one Derby before his career is over.

2. Lookin At Lucky. Still awaiting the 2009 2-year-old champion’s seasonal debut. Bob Baffert trained the son of Smart Strike cautiously last weekend when rain hitouthern California. If he has no prep on dirt prior to the Kentucky Derby, this one will be tough to gauge.

3. Rule. Pletcher has some time on the sidelines, thanks to the suspension he received as a result of a positive test at the 2008 Breeders’ Cup. He can use the down time to map out a road to the Derby for his various candidates, including this son of Roman Ruler, who has looked good beating up on relatively weak competition.

4. American Lion. Assuming Eoin Harty will keep Tiznow colt on synthetic surfaces until testing him at Churchill Downs. At this stage he looks to be part of a heavy speed brigade among the various contenders.

5. Dave in Dixie. Can’t wait to see this Dixie Union colt’s next start for trainer John Sadler. Finished with a tremendous burst in deep stretch in the Robert Lewis Stakes and figures to improve with racing.

6. Discreetly Mine. Pletcher-trained colt fits the profile of a Kentucky Derby winner in so many ways: a lot of racing experience at two, strong performances in graded stakes, and a pedigree (Mineshaft out of a Private Account mare) that makes you think distance is no problem.

7. Conveyance. Hard to knock an unbeaten horse, and this Indian Charlie colt has been highly regarded from the start; he sold for $240,000 as a yearling and probably brought 10 times more than that when he was purchased privately by Zabeel Racing earlier this year.

8. Dublin. Hopeful winner at Saratoga last summer returned to good form in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, chasing Conveyance to the wire while making up a lot of ground in the final eighth of a mile. That suggests the D. Wayne Lukas-trained son of Afleet Alex will be that much tougher when the distances stretch out.

9. Buddy’s Saint. Son of Saint Liam went from big time to small time in no time with his ninth-place finish in Fountain of Youth. But considering all the trouble the Nashua and Remsen Stakes winner had around the first turn when he was bounced around after rushing up along the rail into a hole that didn’t exist, it’s easy to see how the colt may have gotten discouraged. It’s the kind of race you just draw a line through and hope it wasn’t a reflection of his true ability.

10. Caracortado. Just like with Conveyance, it’s tough to knock perfection. He’s had relatively soft competition until last out in the Robert Lewis, when son of Cat Dream got the perfect trip behind dueling leaders

Kentucky Derby preps are in full swing across the country with more than a few contenders from the 2007 foal crop hoping to emerge as stars. Gulfstream Park will present two graded stakes for 3-year-olds, the Hutcheson, at seven furlongs, and the 1 1/8-mile Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth, both Grade 2. In the Hutcheson, Rick Dutrow has two entries, Radiohead and D’Funnybone, the likely favorite. Rick’s brother, Tony Dutrow, also has an entry in the Hutcheson, A Little Warm. Nick Zito’s Jackson Bend will face nine rivals in the Fountain of Youth. The diminutive son of Hear No Evil had a five-race win streak broken in his last out when he ran second to Winslow Homer in the Holy Bull. His biggest challenger appears to be Remsen winner Buddy’s Saint.

Gulfstream has also carded a pair of complementary G3 grass races for older horses on Saturday—for the ladies it’s the Honey Fox and the guys run in the Canadian Turf. An overflow field has entered the Honey Fox, including Bluegrass Princess, Backseat Rhythm, and Quiet Harbor, who brings with her a string of five consecutive wins. Courageous Cat makes his 2010 debut in the Canadian Turf; he finished his 2009 campaign with a sensational runner-up effort to Eclipse Award winner Goldikova in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

After inclement weather at Oaklawn Park forced the cancellation of last Monday’s G3 Southwest Derby, it was rescheduled for Saturday. Conveyance, Cardiff Giant and Domonation, the first three finishers in the San Rafael Stakes, shipped in from California and all remained on the grounds and re-entered one mile test.

At the Fair Grounds, the spotlight will be on 3-year-olds in the G3 Silverbulletday, for fillies, and the G2 Risen Star, for colts and geldings. Both races are 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. In the Silverbulletday, Todd Pletcher’s Devil May Care is the slight morning-line favorite over the Dale Romans-trained Quiet Temper. A full field of 12 goes to the gate in the Risen Star; the top choices here are Bill Mott’s Drosselmeyer, and from the Tom Amoss barn, Ron the Greek.

Also, at Fair Grounds on Saturday, two other G3 stakes will be run for older horses—the Mineshaft, at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, and the Fair Grounds Handicap, 1 1/8 miles on turf. The one-two finishers in the Jan. 23 Louisiana Handicap, Friesan Fire and General Quarters, will face off again in the Mineshaft, while the Fair Grounds Handicap has attracted the likes of Acting Zippy, Transduction Gold and the now 10-year-old Silverfoot. Giant Oak is entered as well, but will run only if the race is transferred to dirt.

The other graded Derby prep on Saturday is the G3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields in Northern California. Ranger Heartley and Connemara are the likely favorites among eight entered in the 1 1/8-mile dirt contest; they ran first and second, respectively, in the Jan. 16 California Derby.

Saturday’s Santa Anita card features the G2 San Carlos Handicap, a seven furlong dirt race for 4-year-olds and up. Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Dancing In Silks hopes to rebound from his third-place finish in the Palos Verdes and earn a trip to the Golden Shaheen in Dubai in late March. His day could be spoiled by Ventana, runner-up in the Palos Verdes, or the speed demon, Bob Black Jack, off since winning the 2008 Malibu.

On Sunday, the only graded stakes action takes place at Santa Anita with the running of the G2 San Luis Obispo Handicap for older horses on the turf at the marathon distance of  1 ½ miles. Obrigado, now a 7-year-old, won this race in 2007 and makes his seasonal debut here. The Neil Drysdale trainee will face eight rivals, including his stablemate Bourbon Bay.

 Mother Nature has wreaked havoc on racetracks coast-to-coast. Racing was cancelled last Saturday at Santa Anita; all three graded stakes will be run this Saturday, Feb. 13, in addition to the Grade 2 Santa Maria. Santa Anita’s 10-race program will feature five stakes races, including the G1 Las Virgenes and a pair of Grade 2s, the Strub and the Robert B. Lewis. The Las Virgenes has attracted a field of six 3-year-old fillies to go once around the all-weather track. Blind Luck will be heavily favored based on her final three starts in 2009—she won the G1 Oak Leaf before finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and ended the year with a seven-length win in G1 Hollywood Starlet. Among those taking on Blind Luck will be Crisp, winner of G3 Santa Ysabel, and Switch, third in G2 Santa Ynez.

The first two finishers in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic will square off in the G2 Santa Maria, the 8th race on the card. In the 1 1/16-mile dirt test, Life Is Sweet will make her 2010 debut against Florida invader Mushka.

Trainer Bob Baffert has his eyes on a couple prizes Saturday. If Misremembered can prove himself in the Strub, he’ll head for the Santa Anita Handicap, more familiarly known as the Big ‘Cap, next month. Misremembered, a ridgling son of Candy Ride last ran second to M One Rifle in the G1 Malibu. The nine-furlong Strub, for 4-year-olds, has also attracted Smart Bid and Rendezvous, second and third, respectively in the G2 San Fernando.

Baffert hopes to have yet another Kentucky Derby prospect with Tiz Chrome. The son of Tiznow comes into the 1 1/16-mile Robert B. Lewis with just two starts, but his debut at Churchill Downs and his winning performance in the Stuka Stakes at Hollywood were eye-catching. Facing him will be Eoin Harty-trained American Lion, also a son of Tiznow, who won the Hollywood Prevue.

At Gulfstream Park on Saturday, a pair of graded sprints will be featured—the G3 Hurricane Bertie, for older fillies and mares going six-and-a-half furlongs, and the G2 Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship, seven furlongs for males, four and up. The first three finishers from the G3 Sugar Swirl (Pretty Prolific, Warbling and Tar Heel Mom) are entered in the Hurricane Bertie, as well as a pair shipping in from California, Pinkarella and Kays and Jays. Barring wet track conditions, Munnings will be favored in the Sprint Championship, despite his lengthy absence from the track.

Tampa Bay Downs will host two G3 stakes on Saturday. The spotlight will be on Rule in the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis. The WinStar Farm homebred has a three-race win coming in, including his most recent win in the Delta Jackpot. Lady Shakespeare takes on an overflow field in the Endeavour, a 1 1/16 mile race for older fillies and mares.

The 1 1/8-mile G2 La Canada on Sunday’s Santa Anita program has attracted a full field of 14 4-year-old fillies, including Stardom Bound, runner-up in the El Encino. Among those facing her are Pretty Unusual, winner of the El Encino, and Unrivaled Belle, who beat Stardom Bound last November in the Gazelle.

On Monday’s Presidents Day card at Laurel, two graded stakes will be presented–the Barbara Fritchie (for fillies and mares) and General George Handicaps. Both are G2 races, run at seven furlongs on the dirt. The General George has such familiar names as The Roundhouse and Ah Day in the entries; Royale Michele, assigned high weight of 121 lbs., takes on a full field in the Barbara Fritchie, spotting her rivals four to 11 lbs.

Holiday racing at Santa Anita will feature the G2 San Vicente, for 3-year-olds going seven furlongs on the Pro-Ride surface, and the G2 Buena Vista Handicap, whose probable entries include Cat by the Tale and Tuscan Evening. The Buena Vista is a one-mile turf affair for older fillies and mares.

The most interesting of the Feb. 15 graded stakes may by the G3 Southwest at Oaklawn Park for 3-year-olds going one mile. Shipping in from California are Conveyance, Cardiff Giant and Domonation, the first three finishers in the San Rafael Stakes.