Posts Tagged ‘giant’s causeway’

The Paulick Report is pleased to once again offer the pedigree insights of Edwin Anthony in the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Ed has lifelong experience in the Thoroughbred industry, has practical experience planning matings for his family’s stable and formerly as a pedigree adviser to Three Chimneys Farm. His perspective is straightforward and refreshingly opinionated, and I advise anyone interested in Thoroughbred pedigrees to pick up a copy of his book, “The American Thoroughbred (Volume One)”—available for purchase here.

In this first of a series of articles, he looks at the pedigree of Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth winner Eskendereya. – Ray Paulick

ESKENDEREYA (Giant’s Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew)
By Edwin Anthony
I wrote a series of eight pedigree profiles for horses on the “Triple Crown trail” starting about this time last year, and recent Fountain of Youth (G2) winner Eskendereya will serve as the first horse in our series this season. It’s interesting to look back at the horses we profiled last year (Friesan Fire, Quality Road, Pioneerof the Nile, Dunkirk, I Want Revenge, Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy, Rachel Alexandra) to see how they fared.

Quality Road is obviously a top horse (he missed the Triple Crown with quarter cracks), while Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile were each able to place in one classic race, and I wrote a token piece about Rachel Alexandra because she looked like a very special filly, even though she had not won anything more than a G2 race at that stage.  Only a fortune teller could have predicted Rachel Alexandra’s Horse of the Year campaign after changing hands or the rapid ascension of Birdstone (sire of longshot classic winners Mine That Bird and Summer Bird) as a major classic influence.

Even though I have studied Thoroughbred pedigrees for going on 25 years, no one can get around the folly of bad luck, injuries in training, or the fact that many horses look dominant going nine furlongs (a mile-and-an-eighth) but simply aren’t up to the demanding task of running classic distances at a competitive speed.

That’s the mystery of stamina and genetics that we’re constantly trying to figure out.  Of course, even a horse that is capable of competing at classic distances still needs to put out the effort, and sometimes horses have off-days just like people.

If nothing else, we strive to learn about the strengths and limitations of the stallions and ancestors under discussion and hope to come out smarter on the other side.  At the very least, we want to learn what strategies are working in pedigrees, even if some of them aren’t up to the classic standard.  Who are the soundest horses, where is the stamina coming from, and what ancestors are best to inbreed to?  These are the answers we’re looking for.

Pedigree analysts (like myself) try to identify patterns in graded stakes results as a way of predicting the future.  Given that the Storm Cat line has been a poor source of classic winners, then you probably wouldn’t want to lean heavily on Storm Cat’s sons (or stallions out of Storm Cat mares) in your stallion recommendations for breeders that want to breed for the classics.  The Storm Cat line hasn’t had a winner of a Triple Crown race since Tabasco Cat in 1994, although Bluegrass Cat was second in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont, and Travers in 2006.  You should note that Bluegrass Cat is out of a mare by classic influence A.P. Indy and his dam is heavily inbred to the foundation mare La Troienne, including being from the Numbered Account (champion 2YO filly by Buckpasser) branch of that important family.

So, while the Storm Cat line is dominant in 2-year-old racing and in races contested at distances of 9 furlongs or shorter, it does not appear capable of producing classic types, unless there is a LOT of help on the dam side of the equation.  Of course, when you start to speak in these kinds of absolutes, a special horse can come along and provide us with the exception to the rule.

Storm Cat’s son Giant’s Causeway was a tough campaigner in Europe out of a good racemare by Rahy, with a second dam by English Derby winner and classic influence Roberto.  He was undeniably consistent and high class, winning a series of Group 1 races at more than a mile. In his final start, he gave classic distance specialist Tiznow a real run for his money in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, that being his only start on dirt.  So, Giant’s Causeway was sound, very fast, and capable of competing with top horses at the American classic distance of 10 furlongs (a mile-and-a-quarter).  This makes him an exception among sons of Storm Cat, as most of his sons that have found any measure of success at stud were much better at a mile or less and have passed on this penchant for speed among their progeny.

Giant’s Causeway has already sired Grade 1 winners in America over 10 furlongs like Heatseeker (Santa Anita Handicap), Frost Giant (Suburban), and Red Giant (NWR, Clement L. Hirsch Memorial Turf Championship), so you can see that if there is a son of Storm Cat capable of siring an American classic winner, then Giant’s Causeway is probably the one.

The runaway win by Eskendereya (by Giant’s Causeway) in the Fountain of Youth (G2) was more than visually impressive.  You could see that the horse really relished the opportunity to go two turns, and he is now 3 for 3 on the dirt, his only losses coming in his first start (a maiden event on turf at Saratoga) and a poor effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), contested over the synthetic surface at Santa Anita.  He was reported to have a troubled trip in that race as well.

I have often thought that a true classic type horse is able to simply get into a steady gallop and carve out “12’s,” which is to say that he can consistently complete each furlong of a race in 12 seconds.  It becomes increasingly difficult to do with each furlong, as the muscles begin to tire, and Secretariat’s world record time of 2:24 in the 1973 Belmont (over 12 furlongs) is the best example of a horse being able to accomplish this feat over such a distance.  It’s not about an explosive move or “turn of foot” with classic horses; it’s steady horsepower over a distance.  Classic horses “stay” (as the Europeans like to say), while horses more suited to shorter distances simply run out of gas, unable to maintain a steady stream of “12’s” on the toteboard teletimer.

This is exactly what Eskendereya did to the field in the Fountain of Youth (G2)—he galloped them into submission.  After taking over after a half-mile in a soft 47.92, he completed six furlongs in 1:12.41, a mile in 1:36.54, with a final time for nine furlongs of 1:48.87, echoing the many 12-second furlongs before the last one.  So, like several other sons of Giant’s Causeway, Eskendereya looks capable of running a distance of ground as far as 10 furlongs at a competitive rate of speed.  Let’s look at the bottom side of his pedigree to check for more stamina.

Eskendereya’s damsire, Seattle Slew, won the Triple Crown and has been a very successful classic influence, with descendants like A.P. Indy (Belmont, Breeders’ Cup Classic), Bernardini (Preakness, Travers), Cigar (Breeders’ Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup), Lemon Drop Kid (Belmont, Travers), Mineshaft (Jockey Club Gold Cup, Suburban), and Slew o’ Gold (Jockey Club Gold Cup twice) serving as notable examples.

Alydar (second in all 3 Triple Crown races to Affirmed) is the sire of Eskendereya’s second dam, and beyond the fact that he sired two Kentucky Derby winners (Alysheba and Strike the Gold) and a Belmont winner (Easy Goer), Horse of the Year Point Given (Preakness, Belmont, Travers) was produced by a mare by champion Turkoman, he being a son of Alydar.

We know that inbreeding to the family of Almahmoud (second dam of both Halo and Northern Dancer) has been quite successful, and Giant’s Causeway is a very good example of this, as Storm Cat is a grandson of Northern Dancer and Rahy (his damsire) is out of a mare by Halo.  The pedigree of Eskendereya shows why a six-generation computer program is a good investment, as his third dam carries intensive inbreeding to the Almahmoud family as well.  His third dam is by Northern Dancer himself (giving Eskendereya “balanced” inbreeding to Northern Dancer—through a son and a daughter), and while his fourth dam was sired by the stout stamina influence Ribot (winner of the 12-furlong “Arc” twice) his fifth dam is actually the mare Cosmah, she being the dam of Halo and a daughter of Almahmoud. Thus, Eskendereya is not only inbred to Northern Dancer through  a son and a daughter, he is inbred to Halo’s dam, Cosmah, 6 x 5 and carries four total crosses of Almahmoud.

As the ancestors Northern Dancer, Halo, and their granddam Almahmoud get further back in pedigrees, this reinforcement strategy of crossing horses inbred to Almahmoud should continue to find success and revive their influence in classic pedigrees.  My parents bred and raced Preakness winner Pine Bluff (inbred 4 x 4 to Almahmoud), and I have noticed him working well with reinforcement of Almahmoud’s genes, crossing successfully with stallions like More Than Ready (by Southern Halo—closely inbred to Almahmoud), Menifee (by Harlan—closely inbred to Almahmoud), and Jules (from the Northern Dancer family and carrying Halo in his pedigree).  So, it seems to be a strategy that is paying dividends with stallions and mares already carrying inbreeding to Almahmoud.

Given the fact that Giant’s Causeway has already proven capable of siring runners that excel at classic distances, and the fact that Eskendereya carries a number of other classic influences in his pedigree (Seattle Slew, Alydar, Ribot, and intensive inbreeding to the influential Almahmoud family), I’d say that his classic prospects look very bright indeed.  His clear preference for dirt racing and ability to string together one 12 second furlong after another only boosts his stock, in my opinion.  If Eskenereya can arrive in Louisville with a solid Florida Derby (G1) effort under his belt, he should be a very strong contender.
 
Edwin Anthony was the staff pedigree consultant at Three Chimneys Farm for six years and has penned dozens of articles on pedigree research.  He also published The American Thoroughbred (Volume I) in 2008, which can be ordered via the banner ad link on this web page or on his web site at www.thoroughbredadvisor.com.

By Ray Paulick
Todd Pletcher isn’t the only who had a big weekend last week, winning three American Graded Stakes races for 3-year-olds on Feb. 20: the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park with Eskendereya, the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds with Discreetly Mine, and the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields with Connemara.

Coolmore Ashford’s Giant’s Causeway sired two of the Pletcher-trained AGS winners, Eskendereya and Connemara, giving the 13-year-old Storm Cat stallion a total of three AGS winners thus far in 2010 (San Pasqual Handicap winner Neko Bay is the other one). For good measure, another top 3-year-old prospect by Giant’s Causeway, Northern Giant, finished a solid third for Pletcher’s mentor, Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, in the Risen Star. Only 16 days earlier, Northern Giant turned in a huge effort winning an Oaklawn Park maiden race by 11 1/4 lengths. He’s obviously a slow developing colt, the win coming in his sixth start.

On the strength of those AGS winners, Giant’s Causeway is atop the general sire list thus far in 2010 after being leading North American sire in 2009 for the first time since his first crop reached the racetrack in 2004. He was a truly outstanding racehorse and it’s no surprise that he’s developed into an elite sire. Giant’s Causeway has yet to sire his first American classic winner, but Eskendereya, who moved to the top of many Kentucky Derby lists with his Fountain of Youth victory, could easily change that.

With his weekend victories, trainer Pletcher now has won eight AGS races of 2010 with seven different horses. That’s 16% of the 50 AGS races run so far this year. Pletcher is on a brief “vacation” now, the result of a suspension stemming from a positive test at the 2008 Breeders’ Cup. His stable is deep in talent, is coming off a very strong 2009, and is ranked as the leading trainer by money won so far in 2010 (with reigning Eclipse Award winner Steven Asmussen in hot pursuit) while winning at a 27% clip. With Quality Road leading the way in the older male division, an incredibly deep roster of 3-year-old talent, and undoubtedly a talented group of 2-year-olds now going through early training, this could be a year to remember for Pletcher.

The saga of Ahmed Zayat’s Zayat Stables and the Fifth Third Bank that sued the stable took an interesting turn over the weekend when Eskendereya ran away and hid from nine rivals in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Just as Fifth Third was pushing for the authority to take over and manage the Zayat Stable assets, Eskendereya, one of those assets, exploded in value with his overpowering 8 1/2-length victory that vaulted him to the top of numerous rankings of Kentucky Derby contenders, including my own. At this stage of the dispute, it would be difficult to convince a bankruptcy court judge that a bank would do a better job managing a racing stable than the team that Zayat has assembled over the last several years, when he has ranked among the leading owners in North America, retired two top stallion prospects to the breeding shed (multiple Grade 1 winner Zensational and Kentucky Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile) and developed a leading candidate for the 2010 Kentucky Derby. The bank most recently dropped their demand for a trustee to be appointed to manage the assets.

So Zayat, despite filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, holds some pretty good cards in his hand right now, led by the ace of the stable, Eskendereya, whose value probably increased tenfold with that Fountain of Youth victory.

Under normal circumstances, offers from stallion farms would start flooding in on a horse like Eskendereya, considering how he dismantled a good field and the pedigree he carries (Giant’s Causeway out of a Seattle Slew mare). But if the horse is worth $5 million or more and Zayat decides to sell all or part of him, how much of a dent would that put on the reported $34 million he is said ot owe Fifth Third? Probably not enough to convince Zayat to sell, especially given his personal quest to win big races like the Kentucky Derby. Besides, if Eskendereya runs the table and wins the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown (and we’re not making that prediction), he’s probably worth tens of millions of dollars and closer to bailing Zayat out in one fell swoop.

On the other side of this rather expensive coin is the grim reality that what goes up also can come down. If Eskendereya is worth $5 million today after a Grade 2 victory, what would he be worth if he throws in a clunker next time out and fails to hit the board? Answer: a lot less than what he is worth today.

Zayat is a gambler, both at the betting windows and in the auction ring. He’s gambled tens of millions of dollars that he can increase the value of his bloodstock assets, and I would bet that he will not be willing to sell a cherished property like Eskendereya as long as there is more upside available. His track record in the horse business suggests he does not sell on the way up.

I think it goes without saying Fifth Third would like Zayat to monetize some assets, but he is currently holding the cards. 

Click here for Ray’s Under The Raydar segment

Following is my latest top 10 horses for the Paulick Derby Index:
 
1. Eskendereya. Leader of Todd’s Squad, perhaps the strongest group of horses multiple Eclipse Award-winning trainer Todd Pletcher has ever had in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby, where his futility is well documented. Pletcher will win more than one Derby before his career is over.

2. Lookin At Lucky. Still awaiting the 2009 2-year-old champion’s seasonal debut. Bob Baffert trained the son of Smart Strike cautiously last weekend when rain hitouthern California. If he has no prep on dirt prior to the Kentucky Derby, this one will be tough to gauge.

3. Rule. Pletcher has some time on the sidelines, thanks to the suspension he received as a result of a positive test at the 2008 Breeders’ Cup. He can use the down time to map out a road to the Derby for his various candidates, including this son of Roman Ruler, who has looked good beating up on relatively weak competition.

4. American Lion. Assuming Eoin Harty will keep Tiznow colt on synthetic surfaces until testing him at Churchill Downs. At this stage he looks to be part of a heavy speed brigade among the various contenders.

5. Dave in Dixie. Can’t wait to see this Dixie Union colt’s next start for trainer John Sadler. Finished with a tremendous burst in deep stretch in the Robert Lewis Stakes and figures to improve with racing.

6. Discreetly Mine. Pletcher-trained colt fits the profile of a Kentucky Derby winner in so many ways: a lot of racing experience at two, strong performances in graded stakes, and a pedigree (Mineshaft out of a Private Account mare) that makes you think distance is no problem.

7. Conveyance. Hard to knock an unbeaten horse, and this Indian Charlie colt has been highly regarded from the start; he sold for $240,000 as a yearling and probably brought 10 times more than that when he was purchased privately by Zabeel Racing earlier this year.

8. Dublin. Hopeful winner at Saratoga last summer returned to good form in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, chasing Conveyance to the wire while making up a lot of ground in the final eighth of a mile. That suggests the D. Wayne Lukas-trained son of Afleet Alex will be that much tougher when the distances stretch out.

9. Buddy’s Saint. Son of Saint Liam went from big time to small time in no time with his ninth-place finish in Fountain of Youth. But considering all the trouble the Nashua and Remsen Stakes winner had around the first turn when he was bounced around after rushing up along the rail into a hole that didn’t exist, it’s easy to see how the colt may have gotten discouraged. It’s the kind of race you just draw a line through and hope it wasn’t a reflection of his true ability.

10. Caracortado. Just like with Conveyance, it’s tough to knock perfection. He’s had relatively soft competition until last out in the Robert Lewis, when son of Cat Dream got the perfect trip behind dueling leaders

We are pleased to introduce a new weekly feature today, the Paulick Report Forum brought to you by Breeders’ Cup. Every Wednesday, we’ll talk with a Thoroughbred industry player about the game we all love, trying to get a better understanding of where we’ve been and where we may be headed. One thing I’ve learned throughout my years in this industry is that nothing comes easy. We are a sport and a business fraught with divisiveness, incoherence and confusion. But at the same time we are blessed to have many participants with great intelligence, insights and dedication. In short, we never know where the next good idea may come from.

We hope you will read each week’s Forum, offer your thoughts on the subject being discussed, and suggest to us other areas where we can advance the discussions that need to take place to get our industry moving in the right direction once again. Thanks to the Breeders’ Cup for their sponsorship of this process. 

It surprised me when Christophe Clement said that he has spent half of his 44 years in the United States. Maybe it’s the heavy French accent he still retains, or simply the blur of the years going by so quickly. But the third-generation horseman has made America his permanent home since 1991. He’d spent a couple of years here in the 1980s, working for Taylor Made Farm and trainer Shug McGaughey, before returning to Europe, where he served for four years as assistant to Luca Cumani in Newmarket, England. Earlier in his life, he had apprenticed for the master horseman Alec Head in Chantilly.

Clement, coming off an outstanding year when Gio Ponti won two Eclipse Awards for the Ryan family’s Castleton Lyons as turf male and older male champion, is preparing the 5-year-old son of Tale of the Cat for a possible run at the $10-million Dubai World Cup. He’s looking at a prep race at Tampa Bay Downs on turf in February prior to taking on the world’s best over the Tapeta Footings surface at the new Meydan racetrack in Dubai. Gio Ponti is coming off a second-place finish to Zenyatta in the Breeders’ Cup Classic over the Pro-Ride synthetic track at Santa Anita.

In this, our first Paulick Report Forum brought to you by Breeders’ Cup, Clement provided some insights about the sport of Thoroughbred racing and how it’s changed during his lifetime.

What is it about international racing that is important to you?
First of all, with the Dubai race I can give you 10 million reasons. If it was a million-dollar race, I wouldn’t be going. I would be going instead to the Santa Anita Handicap. In the case of the Dubai World Cup, the purse has a lot to do with it.
 
But international racing is important. I’m just a trainer, but if I was a breeder or an owner, I would say it is very important for the breed to know which horse is the best and which sires are better. I saw an article in the TDN that said, as recently as 20 years ago, 80% of the world’s leading stallions stood in the United States. Today that number is 50%. The United States does not permeate world breeding the way it was 20 years ago.

From a personal standpoint, I don’t get as many fillies or mares sent from Europe to race here and then be bred to American stallions. Their owners are keeping them in Europe.
 
Why the shift?
A couple of things. First there is medication. People refuse to talk about it, but a lot of people in Europe still don’t want to breed to U.S. sires because those horses raced on medication. A lot of Europeans do not understand why we continue to allow medication while the rest of the world is doing OK without it.

That’s one of the factors. It is an issue for some people. There are two things I would like to see changed. I am convinced Grade 1 races should not be handicaps. It’s not healthy to use weight to try and beat the best horses. Allowance conditions are fine. This is something Bobby Frankel and I talked about, and Bobby was against handicaps in Grade 1s. I also believe there should be no medication in Grade 1s because we use these races to improve the breed.

So why do we continue to permit it?
I don’t know. Every track is different. There is no federal authority. No racing commissioner. The Graded Stakes Committee took grades away from Pennsylvania because they failed to do the proper testing, but there is limited means to enforce national rules. I’m just a trainer. These are some of my thoughts. I’m trying to win a race tomorrow.

You said there were two major reasons for the shift in stallion power away from the U.S.
Right. Secondly, the two groups, the Maktoums and Coolmore, have given European breeders access to some very good stallions because they are retaining some of the best racehorses. Twenty or 30 years ago the world’s best horses came to Gainesway—horses like Lyphard, Riverman, and Blushing Groom. This year, apparently no American farms bid for Sea the Stars. 20 years ago an American farm would have. Aside from Giant’s Causeway and Kingmambo, it’s been quite a while since an exciting European horse came to the United States as a sire. The top milers in Europe are no longer coming here, either.

What training methods have you adapted from your European background?
I am more American than European. I’m 44 and have spent more time in this country than anywhere else. But I’ll say this. When Sir Michael Stoute or Andre Fabre wake up in the morning they have a choice of tracks on which to train their horses. Here it’s the main track or the training track. Those guys have a much wider choice for their horses.

We should have access to all surfaces: dirt, turf and Polytrack.  If you have a good dirt track, like in New York, a good turf course, and a good Polytrack surface to race or train over on days when it’s very wet, it would be very popular. But the problem is who pays? It would be very expensive. In an ideal world, that’s the way it would be. A dirt track should be safe if maintained the right way. Turf is safe, and off the turf races could be run on a Polytrack.

You recently cut back on the number of horses you have in California. Is it because of the problems with Santa Anita’s surface?
It’s Mother Nature. I’m not against Santa Anita. They did everything they could. Wherever you are, you have to deal with Mother Nature. It’s been very wet out there. One reason Gio Ponti came back East is I found that the flight to Dubai will be easier from Florida than California.

In the United States all trainers think they are track superintendents, but the track superintendents know their job. There is no ideal surface 365 days a year. Bob Baffert was really negative on Polytrack, but he’s such a smart guy and a good trainer he’s really adapted. He’s doing great on that surface.

What can American trainers learn from others around the world?
When you work for the people I’ve worked for, you learn that change is not always negative. People in racing don’t like change. Change is not always a bad thing. We should be more open minded about change. A typical thing is the synthetic tracks: trainers should be more open minded. Of course it will not be perfect from day one, but it is ridiculous to be so against it, just as it is ridiculous to be against dirt racing. It doesn’t have to be one or the other. The Kentucky Derby is on dirt and should remain on dirt, and the Belmont Stakes is on dirt and should remain on dirt. But we shouldn’t exclude Polytrack from our racing because it represents change.

Finally, how do you feel about Rachel Alexandra’s owner Jess Jackson’s recent comments that the field for the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic was not nearly as good as the 2008 race when his Curlin was defeated?
I think it’s just another reason that he should have participated in the race.

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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Two months after Dutrow got Offlee Wild, he entered the now 4-year-old in a Belmont Park allowance race and won easily. “Rick called to say that’s exactly what we were looking for,” Robbins said. Dutrow wanted to run Offlee Wild next in the Grade 2 Massachusetts Handicap against Funny Cide in June. He was a longshot in the morning line, but got hammered in the early wagering and eventually went off 3-1 second choice behind the previous year’s Derby winner. Offlee Wild won a head-bobbing photo over Funny Cide, giving Robbins and Dutrow their biggest career wins to date.

“We opted for the surgery, even though there was no guarantee he’d ever race again,” Robbins said. “So we sent him to Dr. (Larry) Bramlage at Rood & Riddle.” To hedge his bets, Robbins put together a video highlighting Offlee Wild’s career to that point. (Click here to view.)

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By Ray Paulick
What does a former longtime editor of Blood-Horse magazine have to do with one of the leading sires of American Graded Stakes winners of 2009?

It’s a longshot for any horse that wins just one race to have the opportunity to succeed at stud, but Malibu Moon has overcome the odds. The credit for that success can be spread around, to farms in Maryland and Kentucky, and to an editor that Josh Pons will never forget.

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

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By Ray Paulick
It’s not the least bit surprising to see horses like Giant’s Causeway, A.P. Indy and Unbridled’s Song among the leading sires of American Graded Stakes winners, a weekly feature brought to you by Keeneland. After all, Giant’s Causeway leads all American-based sires by progeny earnings in 2009, A.P. Indy is fifth on the list and Unbridled’s Song ninth, according to bloodhorse.com.

A.P. Indy has seven AGS winners of 2009 that have won 10 graded stakes; Giant’s Causeway has six AGS winners of nine races, and Unbridled’s Song and Pulpit (16th on the general sire list) each have five AGS winners of seven graded stakes.

But right in the middle of those five sires–which had 2009 stud fees ranging from a high of $250,000 for A.P. Indy, $125,000 each for Giant’s Causeway and Unbridled’s Song and $80,000 for Pulpit—is a stallion who is priced much more affordably and is quietly having his best year at stud, as represented by his offspring on the track and the sale ring. That stallion is Dixie Union, a multiple-American Graded Stakes-winning son of Dixieland Band who stands at Lane’s End Farm in Versailles, Ky. Dixie Union has been represented by six AGS winners of 2009 that have won eight AGS races.

Dixie Union’s 2009 stud fee was $35,000, payable when foal stands and nurses.

Thoroughbred owners have taken notice of Dixie Union’s success, even though he only ranks 21st on the list of leading American sires by progeny earnings. Through the first three days of the Keeneland September yearling sale, Dixie Union has had five yearlings sell from seven offered for an average price of $235,000 and a median of $205,000. His two RNAs were bought back at $140,000 and $235,000. Those are very good numbers–even at his earlier stud fee of $50,000.

Dixie Union was a top-class racehorse at ages two and three for trainer Richard Mandella and his breeder, Herman Sarkowsky, who co-owned the colt with Gerald Ford of Diamond A Racing. At 2  in 1999 he won three AGS stakes: the Hollywood Juvenile Championship at Hollywood Park, Best Pal at Del Mar and Norfolk Stakes during the Oak Tree Racing Association meeting at Santa Anita. He finished fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and came out of that race with a bone chip in his knee. Dixie Union’s return was too late to make the 2000 Triple Crown races, but he won a pair of Grade 1 races at 3: the Haskell Invitational and Malibu Stakes. He retired to stud with a slight tendon injury following the Malibu.

Dixie Union’s six AGS winners of 2009 are: Justwhistledixie, winner of the Grade 2 Davona Dale and Bonnie Miss Stakes at Gulfstream Park; Dixie Chatter, winner of the Grade 2 Arcadia at Santa Anita; Bold Union, winner of the Grade 3 Endine Stakes at Delaware Park; Dixie Band, unbeaten winner of the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity; Hot Dixie Chick, a two-time Saratoga stakes winner of the Grade 2 Schuylerville and Grade 1 Spinaway; and most recently, Gone Astray, winner of the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby.

While Lane’s End has other, higher-profile stallions among its roster of 22 (most notably, Horses of the Year A.P. Indy, Mineshaft and Curlin, and leading sire Smart Strike, among others) no one at Will Farish’s successful Versailles, Ky., operation may offer better value than Dixie Union.

By Ray Paulick
How good is Rachel Alexandra? There are several ways to marvel at her extraordinary ability. To the naked eye, she is an impressive combination of grace and power that is seldom seem, her long, smooth strides simply too much for her overmatched competitors to keep up with.

To followers of speed figures, she is a monster. Her Beyer Speed Figure from Sunday’s Haskell Invitational was 116, a huge number. I would think her Ragozin and Thorograph numbers will also reflect superiority over her contemporaries.

What she has done in racking up seven consecutive victories in 2009 by Aug. 2 is equally amazing. In some ways, this daughter of Medaglia d’Oro is a throwback to yesteryear, when horses weren’t treated with kid gloves. In compiling this formidable record, Rachel Alexandra has won six American Graded Stakes—twice as many as any other horse in the country so far this year—and four of the graded races were Grade 1 events (Kentucky Oaks, Preakness, Mother Goose, and Haskell Invitational). Two of them, as any racing fan knows, were outside of her division against colts.

Let’s put those numbers in perspective. There will be something like 50,000 races run this year in the U.S., about 2,600 of them stakes races, or about 5% of all races. Of the 2,600 stakes, only about 500 are graded (1%), and of those 500, there are just 115 Grade 1. So, one-fifth of 1% of all U.S. races have Grade 1 status.

Taken a bit farther, for those 50,000 races there are about 410,000 horses in the starting gate. No more than 115 of those 410,000 starters will be able to claim a Grade 1 victory, or about three horses from every 10,000 starters (three-hundredths of 1%).

What are the odds of one of those horses winning four Grade 1 races in the first eight months of the year? Astronomical!

So, Rachel Alexandra is not quite a one in a million superstar Thoroughbred, but she’s pretty darned close.

THESE NUMBERS AND PERCENTAGES  merely serve to illustrate how difficult it is for a Thoroughbred to become a graded stakes winner. The chances of breeding, buying, selling or training one can be equally challenging.

Of course, there is strength in numbers to improve your chances of being associated with a graded stakes winner, whether you are a sire, owner, breeder, trainer, consignor or sales company. But big numbers do not guarantee success.

We’ll look this week at the leading sires of 2009 American Graded Stakes winners so far this year. Three stallions—A.P. Indy, Giant’s Causeway and Unbridled’s Song—each have sired five AGS winners. But Giant’s Causeway has by far had the most starters—265 at this writing—so his percentage of AGS winners to year starters is just 1.9%. A.P. Indy with 126 starters, has sired 4.0% AGS winners, and Unbridled’s Song with 162 starters, has sired 3.1% AGS winners. (Note: the number of starters is worldwide.)

A.P. Indy stood for $250,000 this year. A success rate of 4.0% AGS winners means 1 in 25 runners wins an AGS, so it has taken on average $6,250,000 in stud fees (25 X $250,000) to produce each graded stakes winner among his runners. (Not all foals get to the races, so the number to produce an AGS would be even higher considering all foals.)

Giant’s Causeway and Unbridled’s Song stood for $125,000 each, and their average stud fee price per graded stakes winner using that same formula is $6,579,000 for Giant’s Causeway and $4,032,000 for Unbridled’s Song.

It’s the next group of three sires, Mizzen Mast, Candy Ride and Tapit, with four AGS winners each, where the value is greater.  Mizzen Mast has had 126 starters and has a AGS winner percentage of 3.2%; Candy Ride has had 80 starters for a 5.0% AGS strike rate; Tapit has had 84 starters for 4.8%.

Candy Ride, who was recently moved from Hill ‘n’ Dale to Lane’s End, offered the greatest value when considering his $12,500 stud fee. His average stud fee cost per AGS winner was only $250,000. Of course, there is little question that Candy Ride’s fee will be going up in 2010, though no announcement has yet been made.

Of the other two sires with four AGS winners, Mizzen Mast with a $17,500 fee produced each 2009 AGS winner at an average stud fee cost of $547,000; Tapit, with a fee of $35,000 produced each 2009 AGS winner at an average stud fee cost of $729,000—still a bargain compared with the higher-priced stallions.