Posts Tagged ‘giant oak’

Even with no Grade 1 races offered this weekend, there are still a number of competitive graded stakes to be run in Kentucky and New York. Keeneland closes its meet on Saturday with the running of the G3 Fayette, for three-year-olds and up going 1 1/8 miles over the Polytrack surface. Vying for favoritism will be Blame, coming off a second-place effort in Louisiana’s G2 Super Derby, and the Shug McGaughey-trained Parading, who comes back to Kentucky after a California campaign that yielded off-the-board finishes in three Grade 1 events. Parading won the Ben Ali (G3) this year at Keeneland’s spring meet. Medjool and Giant Oak have scratched.

Churchill Downs opens its doors on Sunday and the spotlight will be on juveniles in two Grade 3 stakes, the Pocahontas, for fillies, and the Iroquois, for colts and geldings. Both races are one-turn miles on the dirt. There are no stand-outs in the contentious Pocahontas field, but look for good showings from Sassy Image, Tiz Miz Sue and Happy Week. Running Bride is three-for-three at Hoosier Park which also makes her a factor here. 

The Iroquois is also wide open; the morning line favorite at 4-1 is Dublin, trained by Wayne Lukas. Dublin won the Hopeful (G1) but ran fifth out of six starters as the odds-on favorite in the Champagne (G1). Uh Oh Bango and Three Day Rush are coming off minor stakes wins.

Racing changed venues in New York this week and the Aqueduct graded stakes schedule includes Sunday’s G3 Long Island Handicap, for fillies and mares, three years old and up at 1 ½ miles on grass. In the field of seven, Tom Albertrani’s trainee, Criticism, is the one to beat. The 5-year-old daughter of Machiavellian has three wins this year, all performed in wire-to-wire fashion. Most recently, she finished second to Pure Clan in the prestigious Flower Bowl Invitational Handicap. This is expected to be Criticism’s final race before heading to the breeding shed.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. Empire Maker colt is scheduled to work at Santa Anita Wednesday for trainer Bob Baffert before shipping to Churchill Downs. Doesn’t get much respect for a horse coming into the Kentucky Derby off four consecutive graded stakes victories, but such is the influence of speed figures these days. I think speed figures are less relevant in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby than they are for everyday races because of the unique nature of the Derby.

2-I Want Revenge. Already stabled at Churchill Downs, which gives Stephen Got Even colt plenty of time to acclimate to the racing strip. One caveat: the track horses train over before the live meet begins is often dramatically different than the one they’ll have on Derby Day.

3- Dunkirk. Though I have nagging doubts in the back of my mind about why this son of Unbridled’s Song has been raced so sparingly, I’m confident he may be the best qualified of the Derby contenders to get distances of a mile and a quarter and beyond. How he trains over the next couple weeks will be key.

4-Quality Road. So far, so good on the patched up quarter crack. Unlike some owners and trainers who have run horses in the Derby that were physically compromised, I have confidence that neither Elusive Quality colt’s owner, Ned Evans, or trainer, Jimmy Jerkens, would do that. With the loss of speed horses The Pamplemousse and Old Fashioned, the pace scenario is shaping up in Quality Road’s favor.

5-Friesan Fire. The book on preparing a horse for the Kentucky Derby is being constantly rewritten, so I’m not discounting the A.P. Indy colt’s chances because of the seven weeks trainer Larry Jones is giving him between starts.  And while Louisiana Derby runner-up Papa Clem’s win in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby flattered Friesan Fire, I still don’t think he’s faced the toughest competition this winter.

6-Musket Man. Speaking of flattery, the win by General Quarters in the Toyota Blue Grass strengthened Musket Man’s Tampa Bay Derby triumph. There’s a lot to like about this son of Yonaguska, but the biggest question concerns his pedigree, specifically his propensity to get a classic distance.

7 Papa Clem. Good move by trainer Gary Stute to ship this Smart Strike colt to Oaklawn Park early to train up to the Arkansas Derby. Along with the two victories in New York by I Want Revenge, the win by Papa Clem shows the depth of this year’s California contingent, as both chased Pioneerof the Nile in earlier races.

8-General Quarters. I confess that I missed the trouble the Sky Mesa colt encountered when fifth in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I went back and watched the race again after hearing about it during Steve Byk’s “At the Races” radio show on Monday. Sure enough, he got the worst in that race and ran back to the strong form he showed in the Sam F. Davis while surprising Saturday’s Toyota Blue Grass Field. I don’t think that win was a fluke, but the Blue Grass field was a relatively unproven one.

9-Chocolate Candy. Was hurt more than anyone else by the lack of pace in the Santa Anita Derby, yet still closed strongly to be second to Pioneerof the Nile. Son of Candy Ride will need quick fractions to have a shot in the Kentucky Derby, and at this stage I’m not so sure he’ll get them.

10-Desert Party. It’s asking a lot of the Street Cry colt to ship halfway around the world twice in a six-month period. How he trains over the Churchill Downs surface over the next two and half weeks and how he looks will gives us a better idea of his chances to give Sheikh Mohammed his first win in the Kentucky Derby.

In what is truly becoming a pattern, this weekend’s biggest winner I Want Revenge jumped from the bottom of our poll to the fourth position after romping in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday afternoon. What should not be overlooked in the wake of his 8 1/2 length win is how much stronger the case can be made for Pioneerof the Nile. Head to head, Pioneer won by a narrow margin in the Hollywood Park CashCall Futurity and left Revenge in third in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. However, I Want Revenge proved that he can run on a dirt track in New York, something Pioneerof the Nile hasn’t yet done.

The two biggest losers of the week were Haynesfield and Stardom Bound. Haynesfield, one of the favorites going into the Gotham and a receipient of a first place vote in the last PDI, finished a dismal eighth and dropped completely out of the poll receiving no votes this week. And in light of a shaky performance and reports that Stardom Bound would be heading towards the Kentucky Oaks instead of the Derby, many of our voters dropped her from their lists causing her to fall from the 8th position to number 11.

While it was a relatively light weekend of racing, next week should be anything but with four major Derby preps being run. Study the poll closely this week. It may look very different after the smoke clears Sunday.

Ray’s Picks and Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. West Coast clockers were buzzing again about the Bob Baffert-trained colt after last Sunday’s five-furlong workout in :58 4/5 at Santa Anita. The work came a day after I Want Revenge, the colt Pioneerof the Nile has defeated twice, romped to victory in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. That East Coast win, while solidifying Pioneerof the Nile’s status as the West’s leading contender on the road to Churchill Downs, begs the question of how the switch from California’s synthetics to New York’s traditional dirt may have played into I Want Revenge’s stunning performance. Pioneerof the Nile (by Empire Maker) goes in Saturday’s Grade 2 San Felipe, part of a “fantastic four” afternoon of Kentucky Derby preps (along with Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby, Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, and Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds).

2-Old Fashioned. Also fired a bullet in his weekend workout at Oaklawn in preparation for the Rebel. Son of Unbridled’s Song will be the heavy favorite to keep a perfect record for trainer Larry Jones and Rick Porter’s Fox Hill Farms. Will be interesting to see whether Silver City, second to Old Fashioned in the Southwest Stakes, can make Old Fashioned work even harder for this victory.

3-I Want Revenge. Hard to say anything bad about Saturday’s whiz-bang knockout of his Gotham rivals at Aqueduct, his first start on a dirt track after six races on synthetics in California. Son of A.P. Indy stallion Stephen Got Even was a good horse going into the race and came out of it a budding star. His trainer, Jeff Mullins, may not be the most desirable individual to put up on the Churchill Downs podium on Derby day (he’s had his share of medication violations and it wasn’t that long ago he called racing fans “addicts and idiots”).But just like Big Brown last year, let’s not hold the horse accountable for the trainer’s bad behavior.

4-The Pamplemousse. Kafwain colt had an easy week after his big victory in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita. Should start gearing up for his next start in the coming days.

5-Quality Road. Would like to see trainer Jimmy Jerkens ship Elusive Quality colt north for the Wood Memorial and take on I Want Revenge. Right now I would give the edge to I Want Revenge because of his experience edge, particularly around two turns.

6-Friesan Fire. He’ll have his biggest test yet in the Louisiana Derby on Saturday and certainly didn’t scare anyone away, as nine other 3-year-olds will line up against him. Son of A.P. Indy blazed five furlongs Monday in :58 1/5 at Fair Grounds for Larry Jones to show that he’s on edge.

7-Desert Party. Not much news from the desert on Sheikh Mohammed’s leading Kentucky Derby candidate. I wouldn’t bet against son of Street Cry in U.A.E. Derby coming up later this month, but it’s a big hill to climb to run there and then ship halfway around the world for the Kentucky Derby.

8-Beethoven. I still consider Sky Mesa colt a legitimate dark horse for the Derby. Cutting back from two turns to one-turn mile in Fountain of Youth was not to his advantage. He needs to step up much bigger in next start.

9-Patena. Saturday’s Louisiana Derby will in some ways be a test to see if Rick Dutrow can move the Seeking the Gold colt up from his previous trainer, Josie Carroll, following IEAH Stable’s purchase of a majority interest. Runner-up to Friesan Fire last out had a solid :58 2/5 drill at Gulfstream Park on Monday. Definitely one to watch.

10-Theregoesjojo: It was a toss-up whether to keep son of Sky Mesa in the 10 position or bump him in favor of Stardom Bound, the desperate winner of Saturday’s Santa Anita Oaks who most likely is off the Kentucky Derby trail. It’s pretty clear that trainer Robert Frankel thinks Stardom Bound needs to stay in her own division, though it’s possible he could be overruled if she wins big in the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland next out. Theregoesjojo figures to improve off his effort in the Fountain of Youth.

Each of the four Derby preps this weekend will be interesting in its own way. Can Pioneerof the Nile continue his march successfully at Santa Anita? Will anyone stop Old Fashioned at Oaklawn? How will the Friesan Fire-Patena rematch play out? Did Barclay Tagg make the right move by shipping Hello Broadway to Tampa Bay for the Derby there? We’ll have some answers on Saturday night.

Ray Paulick	Fan Vote	Alex Brown	Paul Moran	Billy Reed	John Conte	Bill Finley
Paulick Report	Paulick Report	Alex Brown Racing	At The Races	Billy Reed Says	Conte’s Picks	ESPN, NYT
Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned	Quality Road	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned
Old Fashioned	I Want Revenge	Dunkirk	Stardom Bound	Quality Road	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile
I Want Revenge	The Pamplemousse	The Pamplemousse	Pioneerof the Nile	Dunkirk	I Want Revenge	Friesan Fire
The Pamplemousse	Friesan Fire	I Want Revenge	Quality Road	Pioneerof the Nile	Dunkirk	The Pamplemousse
Quality Road	Quality Road	Rachel Alexandra	I Want Revenge	Friesan Fire	West Side Bernie	Quality Road
Friesan Fire	Pioneerof the Nile	Desert Party	Hello Broadway	Hello Broadway	Chocolate Candy	I Want Revenge
Desert Party	Dunkirk	Pioneerof the Nile	The Pamplemousse	Desert Party	Capt. Candyman Can	Desert Party
Beethoven	Imperial Council	Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire	Patena	The Pamplemousse	Dunkirk
Patena	Desert Party	Patena	Desert Party	Beethoven	Hello Broadway	Silver City
Theregoesjojo	Patena	Hello Broadway	Dunkirk	Stardom Bound	Giant Oak	Patena

Randy Moss	Bill Nack	Valerie Grash	Gary West	Michael Nikolic	Dana Byerly	Jeremy Plonk
ESPN	ESPN	Foolish Pleasure	FW Star-Telegram	Gathering the Wind	Green But Game	Horseplayer Pro, ESPN
Quality Road	Dunkirk	Friesan Fire	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile
I Want Revenge	The Pamplemousse	Old Fashioned	Quality Road	Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire	Old Fashioned
Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile	Stardom Bound	Dunkirk	Desert Party	Flying Pegasus	Patena
Dunkirk	I Want Revenge	Rachel Alexandra	Hello Broadway	Patena	Desert Party	Friesan Fire
Pioneerof the Nile	Quality Road	I Want Revenge	Pioneerof the Nile	Pioneerof the Nile	Quality Road	Imperial Council
The Pamplemousse	Old Fashioned	Papa Clem	Friesan Fire	I Want Revenge	I Want Revenge	Hello Broadway
Friesan Fire	Stardom Bound	Hello Broadway	I Want Revenge	Chocolate Candy	Patena	Dunkirk
Theregoesjojo	Friesan Fire	Mr. Hot Stuff	Giant Oak	Papa Clem	Theregoesjojo	Quality Road
Desert Party	Desert Party	Imperial Council	Patena	Quality Road	Imperial Council	The Pamplemousse
Beethoven	Giant Oak	Dunkirk	Flying Pegasus	Flying Pegasus	Nowhere to Hide	Mr. Hot Stuff

Bill Christine	John Pricci	Vic Zast	Jon White	Richard Eng	Alan Mann	Alicia Wincze
Horserace Insider	Horserace Insider	Horserace Insider	HRTV, Santa Anita TV	Las Vegas R-J	Left at the Gate	Lexington H-L
Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile	Patena	Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned
I Want Revenge	Pioneerof the Nile	Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire
Desert Party	The Pamplemousse	Stardom Bound	I Want Revenge	Friesan Fire	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile
Pioneerof the Nile	I Want Revenge	The Pamplemousse	Quality Road	The Pamplemousse	Papa Clem	Desert Party
Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire	The Pamplemousse	Pioneerof the Nile	Stardom Bound	The Pamplemousse
Quality Road	Stardom Bound	Dunkirk	Friesan Fire	Quality Road	Dunkirk	Quality Road
Vineyard Haven	Quality Road	Desert Party	Patena	Dunkirk	The Pamplemousse	I Want Revenge
The Pamplemousse	Dunkirk	Capt. Candyman Can	Papa Clem	I Want Revenge	I Want Revenge	Hello Broadway
Theregoesjojo	Desert Party	Chocolate Candy	Dunkirk	Danger to Society	Flying Pegasus	Chocolate Candy
Patena	Hello Broadway	Quality Road	Chocolate Candy	Theregoesjojo	Imperial Council	Beethoven

Art Wilson	Joe Drape	Andy Serling	Jessica Chapel	Brendan O’Meara	Jeff Scott	Lisa Grimm
Los Angeles Newspapers	New York Times	NYRA	Railbird	The Saratogian	The Saratogian	SuperfectaBlog
The Pamplemousse	Old Fashioned	Imperial Council	Old Fashioned	Friesan Fire	I Want Revenge	Pioneerof the Nile
Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile	The Pamplemousse	Desert Party	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile	The Pamplemousse
Pioneerof the Nile	Quality Road	Desert Party	Friesan Fire	Desert Party	Friesan Fire	Old Fashioned
Dunkirk	The Pamplemousse	I Want Revenge	Pioneerof the Nile	Quality Road	Desert Party	Friesan Fire
I Want Revenge	Theregoesjojo	Rachel Alexandra	I Want Revenge	Dunkirk	Old Fashioned	I Want Revenge
Quality Road	Friesan Fire	Quality Road	Flying Pegasus	Take the Points	Flat Out	Quality Road
Papa Clem	Hello Broadway	Danger to Society	Regal Ransom	Pioneerof the Nile	Quality Road	Chocolate Candy
Imperial Council	Sumo	Old Fashioned	Dunkirk	I Want Revenge	The Pamplemousse	Stardom Bound
Friesan Fire	Dunkirk	Dunkirk	Quality Road	Imperial Council	General Quarters	Patena
Desert Party	I Want Revenge	Hello Broadway	Papa Clem	Nowhere to Hide	Mr. Hot Stuff	Hello Broadway

It seems that a trend is developing in the run up to the Derby. The last two weeks, we have had a contender appear out of nowhere to take the fourth position and even earn a couple of first place votes. Quality Road’s impeccable run to take the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth over some very impressive competition clearly made an impression on our voters.

Of course, this performance should not overshadow the equally strong outing by The Pamplemousse who rose seven places in our poll, moving comfortably into fifth place. It appears there might be a slight dirt vs. synthetic bias creeping in as Quality Road edges out The Pamplemousse and Old Fashioned continues to lead Pioneerof the Nile.

We have been honored with a few additional pollsters this week, adding Los Angeles Newspaper Group’s Art Wilson, Dana Byerly of Green But Game, web pioneer Alex Brown and Simon Bray of TVG. We are confident their expertise and passion for the game will be a great addition. Also, we would like to thank ESPN.com, the Lexington Herald-Leader and The Saratogian for picking up the weekly PDI.

Ray’s Picks and Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. Nothing has happened to change my belief that this son of the Unbridled stallion Empire Maker has the right profile to win the Kentucky Derby: solid pedigree, experience in high-class 2-year-old races, and a trainer who knows how to get a colt ready for his best on the first Saturday in May.

2-Old Fashioned. Interesting that Unbridled is the grandsire of the top two horses on my list. One of the most important sources of stamina we have in the Thoroughbred gene pool today, Unbridled (by the Mr. Prospector stallion Fappiano) was dismissed by speed figure followers coming into the 1990 Kentucky Derby. I thought his victory that year served as a reminder that the Derby is unique, and that traditional handicapping methods are not well-suited to the race. It’s more about horsemanship and getting a peak performance on the right afternoon, something Carl Nafzger did with Unbridled.

3-The Pamplemousse. Naysayers knock him as having a sprinter’s pedigree (by Kafwain, a son of sprint champion Cherokee Run, out of a Rubiano mare), but how could you not like the way he strided out down the stretch to pull away from his opponents in the nine-furlong Sham Stakes on Santa Anita’s synthetic Pro-Ride track? Appears to have just one way to go, and that’s on the front end.

4-Stardom Bound. We’ll know more about how last year’s 2-year-old filly champion is doing after Saturday’s Santa Anita Oaks. I think she’s an exceptional filly who will hold her own against colts if given the opportunity. Tapit, was a top-notch racehorse who was undone by the horribly sloppy conditions of the Churchill Downs track when Smarty Jones won the 2004 Derby, and he’s turning into a very promising young sire.

5-Quality Road. Lived up to his sensational morning workouts when he trounced his rivals in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Though it was only a one-turn mile (a configuration, by the way, that used to be considered a good prep in New York for horses like Secretariat and Easy Goer when the Gotham Stakes was run at that distance), Quality Road seemed to settle fine just off the early pace and move to the lead whenever John Velazquez wanted. Son of Elusive Quality (sire of Smarty Jones) will have to prove himself around two turns, and that opportunity probably will arise in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

6-Friesan Fire. Like several of my other top contenders, this son of A.P. Indy has a pedigree that suggests a mile and a quarter is within his scope. Of course, to quote the great Charlie Whittingham, “I know he can get a mile and a quarter. I just don’t know how fast!” The intriguing aspect of Friesan Fire’s family is the Australian female side that traces back to the exceptional racemare Bint Marscay and the great sire Sir Tristram. We’ll know more about his quality after the March 14 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, where he’s already won the LeComte and Risen Star Stakes.

7-Desert Party. The mystery horse from Dubai who’s burden got a lot heavier this past week with the announcement from Godolphin that 2-year-old champ and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman was injured and is off the Derby trail. A good 2-year-old in the U.S. last year, Desert Party has looked good thus far in Dubai but has some history to overcome.

8-Beethoven. If Gulfstream Park’s main track was playing to speed last Saturday, then Beethoven got the worst of it in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes. The son of Sky Mesa came from far back in the one-turn mile to get third, which was a forward moving performance that should be encouraging to his connections.

9-Patena. Aside from the super-hyped allowance winner Dunkirk (not on my top 10), no horse is getting more pre-race attention than this son of Seeking the Gold, who was purchased by IEAH Stables after running second to Friesan Fire in the LeComte Stakes in January and shifted from the barn of Josie Carroll to Rick Dutrow. All systems appear to be a go for the Louisiana Derby after a six-furlong workout at Gulfstream Park last Saturday. The important thing, according to Dutrow, is that Patena “scoped clean” after the work. He had been coughing for about 10 days, the trainer said. “We’ve been clearing different issues, and it seems to all be coming together,” Dutrow said.

10-Theregoesjojo. Finished well to be second to Quality Road in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth for trainer Ken McPeek, who was pleased with the effort. Son of Brahms (by Danzig) defeated Quality Road in his previous start Jan. 10 and should be tighter after his most recent race. Not sure where he will surface, but it won’t take that much improvement for Jojo to get his first stakes win.

Ray Paulick	Fan Vote	Alex Brown	Paul Moran	Bill Reed	John Conte	Bill Finley
Paulick Report	Paulick Report	Alex Brown Racing	At The Races	Billy Reed Says	Conte’s Picks	ESPN, NYT
Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned	Quality Road	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned
Old Fashioned	The Pamplemousse	Dunkirk	Stardom Bound	Quality Road	The Pamplemousse	Pioneerof the Nile
The Pamplemousse	Quality Road	Stardom Bound	Pioneerof the Nile	Dunkirk	Dunkirk	Friesan Fire
Stardom Bound	Dunkirk	Old Fashioned	Quality Road	Pioneerof the Nile	Pioneerof the Nile	The Pamplemousse
Quality Road	Pioneerof the Nile	The Pamplemousse	Hello Broadway	Friesan Fire	Quality Road	Stardom Bound
Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire	Rachel Alexandra	The Pamplemousse	Hello Broadway	Haynesfield	Quality Road
Desert Party	Stardom Bound	Desert Party	Friesan Fire	Desert Party	Friesan Fire	Desert Party
Beethoven	Desert Party	Affirmatif	Desert Party	Patena	Hello Broadway	Haynesfield
Patena	Patena	Haynesfield	Evita Argentina	Beethoven	Chocolate Candy	Dunkirk
Theregoesjojo	Hello Broadway	Pioneerof the Nile	Dunkirk	Stardom Bound	West Side Bernie	Siver City

Randy Moss	Bill Nack	Valerie Grash	Gary West	Michael Nikolic	Dana Byerly	Jeremy Plonk
ESPN	ESPN	Foolish Pleasure	FW Star-Telegram	Gathering The Wind	Green But Game	Horseplayer Pro, ESPN
Quality Road	Dunkirk	Friesan Fire	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	N/A
Old Fashioned	The Pamplemousse	Old Fashioned	Dunkirk	Friesan Fire	Stardom Bound	N/A
Dunkirk	Pioneerof the Nile	Stardom Bound	Quality Road	Desert Party	Friesan Fire	N/A
The Pamplemousse	Quality Road	Rachel Alexandra	Hello Broadway	Patena	Flying Pegasus	N/A
Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire	Desert Party	Friesan Fire	Pioneerof the Nile	Desert Party	N/A
Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned	Dunkirk	Pioneerof the Nile	Chocolate Candy	Quality Road	N/A
Theregoesjojo	Giant Oak	Chocolate Candy	Imperial Council	Papa Clem	Patena	N/A
Desert Party	Desert Party	Papa Clem	Giant Oak	Quality Road	Theregoesjojo	N/A
Beethoven	Stardom Bound	Hello Broadway	Patena	Flying Pegasus	Imperial Council	N/A
Hello Broadway	Patena	Mr. Hot Stuff	Flying Pegasus	Dunkirk	Nowhere to Hide	N/A

Bill Christine	John Pricci	Vic Zast	Jon White	Richard Eng	Alan Mann	Alicia Wincze
Horserace Insider	Horserace Insider	Horserace Insider	HRTV, Santa Anita TV	Las Vegas R-J	Left At The Gate	Lexington H-L
Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile	Patena	Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned
Desert Party	Pioneerof the Nile	Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire
Pioneerof the Nile	Stardom Bound	Stardom Bound	Stardom Bound	Friesan Fire	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile
Friesan Fire	The Pamplemousse	The Pamplemousse	Quality Road	The Pamplemousse	Dunkirk	Desert Party
Stardom Bound	Quality Road	Friesan Fire	The Pamplemousse	Pioneerof the Nile	Papa Clem	Stardom Bound
Quality Road	Friesan Fire	Dunkirk	Friesan Fire	Quality Road	Big Drama	The Pamplemousse
Haynesfield	Hello Broadway	Desert Party	Patena	Dunkirk	Stardom Bound	Quality Road
Vineyard Haven	Mr. Fantasy	Capt. Candyman Can	Papa Clem	Haynesfield	The Pamplemousse	Hello Broadway
The Pamplemousse	Theregoesjojo	Chocolate Candy	I Want Revenge	Mr. Fantasy	Mr. Fantasy	Haynesfield
Theregoesjojo	Desert Party	Quality Road	Dunkirk	Danger to Society	Flying Pegasus	Chocolate Candy

Art Wilson	Joe Drape	Andy Serling	Brendan O’Meara	Jeff Scott	Jessica Chapel	Lisa Grimm
LA Newspaper Group	New York Times	NYRA	The Saratogian	The Saratogian	Railbird	SuperfectaBlog
Haynesfield	Old Fashioned	Desert Party	Friesan Fire	Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile
The Pamplemousse	Pioneerof the Nile	Giant Oak	Old Fashioned	Friesan Fire	Desert Party	The Pamplemousse
Old Fashioned	Quality Road	The Pamplemousse	Desert Party	Desert Party	Friesan Fire	Old Fashioned
Pioneerof the Nile	The Pamplemousse	Imperial Council	Quality Road	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile	Friesan Fire
Dunkirk	Theregoesjojo	Rachel Alexandra	Dunkirk	Flat Out	Flying Pegasus	Stardom Bound
Quality Road	Friesan Fire	Quality Road	Take the Points	Dunkirk	Regal Ransom	Chocolate Candy
Papa Clem	Hello Broadway	Danger to Society	The Pamplemousse	General Quarters	Papa Clem	Patena
Friesan Fire	Haynesfield	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile	Quality Road	Dunkirk	Quality Road
Desert Party	Sumo	Dunkirk	Nowhere to Hide	The Pamplemousse	Capt. Candyman Can	Hello Broadway
I Want Revenge	Dunkirk	Hello Broadway	Imperial Council	Mr. Hot Stuff	The Pamplemousse	Capt. Candyman Can

Patrick Patten	Peter Denk	Nick Kling	Simon Bray	Todd Schrupp
Tbred Bloggers Alliance	Thoroughbred Times	The Troy Record	TVG	TVG
Friesan Fire	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned
General Quarters	Dunkirk	Patena	Pioneerof the Nile	Stardom Bound
Chocolate Candy	Quality Road	Dunkirk	The Pamplemousse	Desert Party
Pioneerof the Nile	Desert Party	Imperial Council	Friesan Fire	The Pamplemousse
The Pamplemousse	Pioneerof the Nile	Friesan Fire	Dunkirk	Quality Road
Hello Broadway	Stardom Bound	Hello Broadway	I Want Revenge	Friesan Fire
Patena	Patena	Flying Pegasus	Hello Broadway	Dunkirk
Old Fashioned	Friesan Fire	Giant Oak	Chocolate Candy	Affirmatif
Quality Road	The Pamplemousse	West Side Bernie	Quality Road	Pioneerof the Nile
Flying Pegasus	Mr. Fantasy	Beethoven	Desert Party	I Want Revenge

It was a quiet weekend for 3-year-old racing and yet the Paulick Derby Index already had its first shake-up. In only our second week, potential superstar Dunkirk  jumped toward the front of the line, even garnering a first place vote. After an impressive win in a Gulfstream allowance race last Thursday, He makes his first appearance on the PDI by jumping straight to fourth on the list of leading Kentucky Derby contenders. Other impressive risers were Desert Party who took over the fifth position and The Pamplemousse whose strong workouts have allowed him to make his debut in the 12 hole.

A few additional voters have come on-board in this, our second week, in what is now the most comprehensive Derby poll available anywhere. We would like to take this opportunity to welcome Richard Eng, Andy Serling, Lisa Grimm, Jessica Chapel, Valerie Grash and Todd Schrupp to the roster of voters. You can see their ballots along with all the other participants at the bottom of this page. And most importantly, we have also allowed the racing public, including industry professionals, owners and breeders, and racing fans, to have their say through our Paulick Derby Index poll on our front page. The ballot is finalized by 10 pm EST Monday so if you were too late to have your vote counted, remember to make sure you don’t miss out the following weeks.

A special thanks to ESPN.com for making the Paulick Derby Index part of their ongoing horse racing coverage, starting this week.

RAY’S PICKS AND ANALYSIS

1. Pioneerof The Nile. Five-furlong workout in 1:00 3/5 at Santa Anita on Feb. 22 indicates Bob Baffert-trained son of Empire Maker is on his game. Here’s what clocker Toby Turrell of Horseplayerpro.com had to say about the Zayat Stables runner: “Pioneerof The Nile…worked in company with stakes-sort stablemate Ten Churros. The keys to the work were the fractions set by the big, gangly colt, and the manner in which he disposed of his workmate — once again on cue inside the sixteenth pole. First, the splits from my watch were :13 4/5, :26, :38 2/5, :50 2/5, 1:13 4/5 and a gallop-out time of 1:26-2/5. Those splits make this a huge move on the watch alone. But what also stands out and stamps this colt as the real deal was the ease of the final quarter-mile, not to mention the responsiveness of the colt to the signals being given by regular pilot Garrett Gomez, who was in the saddle. Off of this work alone, Pioneerof The Nile could easily be moved up any Kentucky Derby top ten list! He was visually striking this morning over a very kind and cushioned Pro Ride surface.” 

Thanks, Toby, but I can’t move this guy up any farther!

2. Old Fashioned. Quiet week after President’s Day win at Oaklawn Park in the Southwest Stakes for unbeaten Unbridled’s Song colt. My biggest concern remains the relative lack of depth in competition he will have faced at Oaklawn Park this spring, and there is a very good chance he’ll arrive at Churchill Downs unbeaten.for trainer Larry Jones and owner Rick Porter.

3. Stardom Bound. IEAH’s Tapit filly worked five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 Feb. 22 in what Horseplayerpro.com clocker Toby Turrell called a “maintenance drill.” Here are Turrell’s comments:”The final three-eighths clicked off my watch in :35 3/5, with the last furlong in :11 4/5. Her athleticism came shining through, hitting the ground with total efficiency through the stretch.I would call this a healthy and productive maintenance drill, and add that she is dead-fit, continuing to gallop with nice energy.” March 7 Santa Anita Oaks is next and then she may try colts for first time.

4. Friesan Fire. A.P. Indy colt keeps firing away for Larry Jones and Vinery Stable. I don’t know that there’s a lot of improvement left in this one, but he rates highly off his existing form. March 14 Louisiana Derby is next.

5. Desert Party. Currently the strongest of the Godolphin group, Street Cry colt has picked up some additional admirers off that recent UAE Two Thousand Guineas win over Vineyard Haven and others. I would continue to follow jockey Frankie Dettori’s lead on which of the Dubai-based 3-year-olds has the best chance.

6. Patena. Seeking the Gold colt working well as new trainer Rick Dutrow gets him ready for first start under IEAH colors. Will know a whole more about this one after March 14 Louisiana Derby.

7. Midshipman. Champion 2-year-old of 2008 being readied for first start in Dubai on March 5 for trainer Saeed bin Suroor. As with a number of past juvenile champs, I have to wonder if this son of Unbridled’s Song will continue to progress or merely was a more precocious colt than his contemporaries early in his career.

8. Vineyard Haven. Will have to wait to see how this talented son of Lido Palace does in his second start in Dubai. My biggest concern is whether he has the pedigree to get the mile and a quarter of the Derby.

9. Beethoven. Will need to put in a strong showing in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes this weekend for trainer John Ward. Workout pattern hasn’t built a great deal of confidence in the Sky Mesa colt, but Ward has never been a believer in firing bullet work after bullet work.

10. Giant Oak. Could this be the sucker horse of the Top 10? Son of Giant’s Causeway seems to find traffic trouble in his starts, and there’s no guarantee that with a clean trip he’s ever going to put things together for a win.

This week’s talking horse was Dunkirk, who did look good beating an allowance field at Gulfstream Park, but I’m just not quite ready to anoint him as the second coming off that victory. The Derby Trail is historically littered with late bloomers that didn’t live up to the hype. Are the rules of engagement changing for the Derby, meaning a horse that didn’t race as a 2-year-old can win America’s most famous horse race?We know that hasn’t happened since long before the Cubs won their last World Series in 1908. Curlin came close, but didn’t win, and I’m going to let it happen a couple of times before I’m ready to discard the importance of good 2-year-old form.