Posts Tagged ‘General Quarters’

Kentucky Derby preps are in full swing across the country with more than a few contenders from the 2007 foal crop hoping to emerge as stars. Gulfstream Park will present two graded stakes for 3-year-olds, the Hutcheson, at seven furlongs, and the 1 1/8-mile Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth, both Grade 2. In the Hutcheson, Rick Dutrow has two entries, Radiohead and D’Funnybone, the likely favorite. Rick’s brother, Tony Dutrow, also has an entry in the Hutcheson, A Little Warm. Nick Zito’s Jackson Bend will face nine rivals in the Fountain of Youth. The diminutive son of Hear No Evil had a five-race win streak broken in his last out when he ran second to Winslow Homer in the Holy Bull. His biggest challenger appears to be Remsen winner Buddy’s Saint.

Gulfstream has also carded a pair of complementary G3 grass races for older horses on Saturday—for the ladies it’s the Honey Fox and the guys run in the Canadian Turf. An overflow field has entered the Honey Fox, including Bluegrass Princess, Backseat Rhythm, and Quiet Harbor, who brings with her a string of five consecutive wins. Courageous Cat makes his 2010 debut in the Canadian Turf; he finished his 2009 campaign with a sensational runner-up effort to Eclipse Award winner Goldikova in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

After inclement weather at Oaklawn Park forced the cancellation of last Monday’s G3 Southwest Derby, it was rescheduled for Saturday. Conveyance, Cardiff Giant and Domonation, the first three finishers in the San Rafael Stakes, shipped in from California and all remained on the grounds and re-entered one mile test.

At the Fair Grounds, the spotlight will be on 3-year-olds in the G3 Silverbulletday, for fillies, and the G2 Risen Star, for colts and geldings. Both races are 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. In the Silverbulletday, Todd Pletcher’s Devil May Care is the slight morning-line favorite over the Dale Romans-trained Quiet Temper. A full field of 12 goes to the gate in the Risen Star; the top choices here are Bill Mott’s Drosselmeyer, and from the Tom Amoss barn, Ron the Greek.

Also, at Fair Grounds on Saturday, two other G3 stakes will be run for older horses—the Mineshaft, at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, and the Fair Grounds Handicap, 1 1/8 miles on turf. The one-two finishers in the Jan. 23 Louisiana Handicap, Friesan Fire and General Quarters, will face off again in the Mineshaft, while the Fair Grounds Handicap has attracted the likes of Acting Zippy, Transduction Gold and the now 10-year-old Silverfoot. Giant Oak is entered as well, but will run only if the race is transferred to dirt.

The other graded Derby prep on Saturday is the G3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields in Northern California. Ranger Heartley and Connemara are the likely favorites among eight entered in the 1 1/8-mile dirt contest; they ran first and second, respectively, in the Jan. 16 California Derby.

Saturday’s Santa Anita card features the G2 San Carlos Handicap, a seven furlong dirt race for 4-year-olds and up. Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Dancing In Silks hopes to rebound from his third-place finish in the Palos Verdes and earn a trip to the Golden Shaheen in Dubai in late March. His day could be spoiled by Ventana, runner-up in the Palos Verdes, or the speed demon, Bob Black Jack, off since winning the 2008 Malibu.

On Sunday, the only graded stakes action takes place at Santa Anita with the running of the G2 San Luis Obispo Handicap for older horses on the turf at the marathon distance of  1 ½ miles. Obrigado, now a 7-year-old, won this race in 2007 and makes his seasonal debut here. The Neil Drysdale trainee will face eight rivals, including his stablemate Bourbon Bay.

It has been almost two weeks since Mine That Bird and jockey Calvin Borel shocked the sports world with their improbable long shot victory in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. And as with any Derby aftermath, the question lingers in the air; will this be the year we end the Triple Crown drought? If our voters are any indication, the answer is an emphatic no as Mine That Bird is ranked in fourth place among the 14 horses prospective Preakness starters.

Furthermore, Calvin Borel’s decision to forego the Derby hero to ride the amazing Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness, an unprecedented move in the 135 years of the Kentucky Derby, goes even more to the point that this may not be the year racing celebrates its 12th Triple Crown champion. Instead, the consensus of our 23 voters, including the fans, was overwhelmingly in favor of Rachel Alexandra to run away with this much anticipated race. Will this hold true? Will trainer Bob Baffert spoil the Oaks/Derby story line with Pioneerof the Nile? Or perhaps we will see another unlikely outcome with a different long shot coming out of nowhere to take the prize. Only Saturday will tell.

Ray Paulick’s Preakness Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. Sure, he looked like he was running in slow motion in the Kentucky Derby compared to Mine That Bird when he rocketed up the rail to victory, but I think the condition of the racetrack had a lot to do with the outcome of the race. Pioneerof the Nile was well off the rail on what I think was the slower part of the track all the way and closer to the pace than expected. I liked the son of Empire Maker going into the Derby, and I think he dispelled concerns that he was a horse that could only run on synthetic tracks. His workout on Monday morning that prompted trainer Bob Baffert to give Pioneerof the Nile the green light to go to Pimlico indicates he came out of the Derby in very good shape.

2- Papa Clem. Smart Strike colt wanted to run more in the early going of the Kentucky Derby while jockey Rafael Bejarano was trying to get him to settle off the pace, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a change of tactics for the Preakness. Gary Stute-trained colt has shown versatility in the past, going to the front and setting moderate fractions to win or coming from midpack, as he did in taking the Arkansas Derby. Preakness field won’t be without pace, with Big Drama and Take the Points expected to show early speed. I’d look for Papa Clem to be just behind the early leaders.

3-Rachel Alexandra. The only knock on the filly is that she hasn’t really faced top-class competition yet. The Kentucky Oaks was her first Grade 1 race, and the field was pretty weak by Oaks standards. Nevertheless, what she did, running away from her beleaguered rivals to win by 20 π lengths, with her jockey sitting like a statue (except for the occasional glance back), was remarkable. This is a huge step up, and I’m not convinced that she’s up to the task.

4-Friesan Fire. Big disappointment in the Kentucky Derby after being sent off as the betting favorite on a sloppy racetrack that everyone thought he would like, following his eye-catching Louisiana Derby win in the slop at Fair Ground. Got bumped around pretty good at the start and came back with some minor cuts and scrapes. A.P. Indy colt has bounced back quickly for trainer Larry Jones and his Tuesday morning workout at Pimlico (five furlongs in :58.40) was very sharp.

5-Mine That Bird. Can’t take the Kentucky Derby victory away from him, no matter how strange the track might have played or how all the so-called “experts” (myself included) dismissed his chances going into the race. He was champion 2-year-old in Canada last year, and it’s clear that in his two losses in New Mexico he didn’t get the right kind of trip. Whether he was pushed to the lead early by Casey Lambert or moved on his own, he came up empty in the stretch of both the Borderland and Sunland Derbies. I think the track and especially a rail bias played in his favor for the Kentucky Derby, but Calvin Borel deserves a great deal of credit for saving Mine That Bird for one big run from far back. I don’t see a repeat performance in the Preakness.

6-Musket Man. Finished with determination in the Kentucky Derby after suffering some early problems, closing to get third while on the far outside, the deepest or stickiest part of the racetrack that day. Never worse than third in seven lifetime starts.

7-Take the Points. Skipped the Kentucky Derby to point for the Preakness, so trainer Todd Pletcher has a very fresh horse going into the race. May not have liked the synthetic surfaces or maybe he just wasn’t sharp  enough to win either of his two California starts. I wouldn’t be surprised to see big improvement.

8-Big Drama. Almost certain to set the pace in the Preakness, and though the Montbrook colt has stretched his speed out to 1 1/16 miles before, he hasn’t done it against this level of competition.

9-General Quarters. Didn’t really like his chances in the Kentucky Derby and I don’t think he’s moved up with his training since finishing 10th at Churchill Downs.

10-Terrain. On a five-race losing streak since being moved up from third to first in the Arlington-Washington Futurity last September. Would take a major form reversal to threaten here.

In a week that should have shown little movement in the rankings of the Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment, the Paulick Derby Index has actually shown some fluctuation as co-favorite Quality Road was withdrawn from the race on Monday because of complications resulting from a quarter crack. I Want Revenge, clearly now the favorite among our ballot stuffers, will lead a top ten that has lost some star power with several favorites not making the trip due to injury. That being said, this is still as strong a group as we have seen in years. The Derby this year should be an exciting one to watch with anywhere from 5-10 horses in legitimate contention.
 
You will also notice that the final week’s Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment features only the top ten contenders. We did this to put an onus on the top echelon of the field and make our last list more exclusive.

Finally, due to the fact that all ballots are submitted by 9 PM EST Monday night and well before Square Eddie’s withdrawal, you will see him on several ballots.
 
Will the PDI be the great predictor it portends to be on Saturday? Only time will tell.

1-Pioneerof the Nile. The Kentucky Derby is a tough race to win, even if everything goes your way, and it’s almost impossible for a horse to win if his training has been interrupted. Witness Unbridled’s Song, who battled foot problems coming up to the 1996 Derby, where he might have been the best horse but finished fifth while racing with a bar shoe on the problematic foot. If Quality Road’s connections felt their horse was sound and sent him to Louisville, I would have bet against him, simply because of the interruption in training. Everything has gone perfectly for Pioneerof the Nile: no interruptions in training due to bad weather or nagging injuries, and he is coming up to this race in the best form of his career. The Empire Maker colt has done everything asked of him, and I doubt trainer Bob Baffert would trade places with anybody.

2-I Want Revenge. It’s the horse, stupid. I’m no fan of trainer Jeff Mullins or the IEAH partners that bought into this son of Stephen Got Even, but I do like I Want Revenge. How can you not like a horse that does what he did to win the Wood Memorial after a disastrous start? The race before that, the Gotham Stakes, he showed enough early speed to press the pace and draw off in the stretch to a an easy victory. He is 0-for-2 against Pioneerof the Nile, though his first loss, by a nose in the Cash Call Futurity, was in his first start after breaking his maiden. I think he’ll be the betting favorite, but if Pioneerof the Nile beats I Want Revenge, people will be scratching their heads and wondering why.

3-Dunkirk. Todd Pletcher has kept the son of Unbridled’s Song under the radar, staying in Florida to train while the rest of the field is in Kentucky, and I don’t fault his logic that the track on Derby Day will likely be different from the surface everyone trained on in the weeks leading up to the race. Always seems to be that way. The colt has enormous talent, but there remains that issue of a lack of experience that has stopped many previous Derby contenders with a similar profile.

4-Friesan Fire.  One thing we know: if it rains as expected, and the track is sloppy, Friesan Fire will be one happy horse. The A.P. Indy colt seemed to relish the sloppy Fair Grounds surface while winning the Louisiana Derby in a cakewalk. His training up to the race for Larry Jones has been sensational, and the only thing his resume lacks is a victory over tough competition.

5-Musket Man. Beating Giant Oak in the Illinois Derby was no great accomplishment (doesn’t somebody always beat Giant Oak?), but it’s hard to fault a horse with five wins in six starts. Yonaguska colt seems like the grinder type—not much early speed or quick mid-race acceleration—but if he gets a good enough trip under Eibar Coa I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in the top flight at the eighth pole.

6-Papa Clem. Won the Arkansas Derby coming from off the pace, but Smart Strike colt has enough speed to be close up in the early going and maybe even make the lead if no one else wants it. Gary Stute learned from his father, Mel, the West Coast wizard of speed, so a late-week blowout of two or three furlongs might be used to sharpen up Papa Clem after a series of longer works.

7-Chocolate Candy. Has only one way of going, settle in near the back of the field and make a late run, so you know that racing luck will play a role for Candy Ride colt. Hollendorfer has won the Kentucky Oaks twice (Lite Light in 1991 and Pike Place Dancer in1996), proving he can win at the top level of the game while being based in California’s “B  Circuit” in the Bay Area. Training well, but has to have everything go his way for a victory.

8-Advice. Wise guys are asking how a horse that couldn’t win the Sunland Park Derby is going to win the Kentucky Derby.  Real Quiet, who came within a nose of winning the 1998 Triple Crown, couldn’t win in New Mexico, either, finishing third there as a 2-year-old in a pair of races. Advice demonstrated some quality last year, finishing second but DQed and placed third in the Arlington-Washington Futurity, and his last to first rally in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes was eye-catching. But races were on Polytrack, however, and he has yet to prove himself on a conventional dirt track (though the same can be said of Pioneerof the Nile).

9-Desert Party. I like the way the son of Street Cry has trained since arriving from Dubai, but I’ve seen previous Godolphin horses looking sharp in the morning before fading on Derby afternoon. If this one is any different, he’ll win without my backing at the windows.

10-Mr. Hot Stuff. Have always thought this Tiznow colt was going to develop into a good one, but it’s taken longer than expected. He’ll be running late in the Derby, but I think he looks more like a Travers winner.

Last weekend was the final opportunity for Derby hopefuls to make their case. As a result, this week’s Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment had two new entries with Square Eddie in a tie for 15th and Advice all alone in the 18th spot. The only other newbie on our list was a vote for Arkansas Derby 3rd place finisher Summer Bird.

Also significant was the tightening between the first and second place contenders I Want Revenge and Quality Road. This narrowing margin is due to Quality Road’s quarter crack not being as concerning as once believed.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. This was written before his first serious workout on the Churchill Downs surface, but I’m sticking with the Empire Maker colt unless and until he shows a complete disdain for dirt in his training up to the Kentucky Derby. Keeping Garrett Gomez in the saddle is a confidence booster because agent Ron Anderson is as sharp as they come.

2-I Want Revenge. Biggest question about Stephen Got Even colt’s two New York wins was who he beat. Not sure there was much quality behind him, but he was right there with Pioneerof the Nile in California and showed he likes the dirt. Versatile running style really a plus and jockey Joe Talamo is wise beyond his years.

3- Quality Road. Mystery horse as far as I’m concerned, because of the quarter crack. But based on that last New York workout and the fact the son of Elusive Quality apparently came out of it in good shape I’ve moved him up a notch over Dunkirk. Will he get the distance?

4-Dunkirk. Could there be a better backup rider to Garrett Gomez than Edgar Prado? No loss there in riding talent. Choice by Gomez and agent Anderson was a tough one, considering they were dealing with two high-powered trainers in Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher and two of the most prominent owners in the game in Ahmed Zayat and the Coolmore operation. Call me old school, but I think the lack of racing experience will go against both Quality Road and Dunkirk.

5-Friesan Fire. Larry Jones seems to have had a pretty well-defined plan for son of A.P. Indy and he’s sticking to it. Another one racing against history with his lengthy gap between races. Working solidly at Keeneland before shipping to Churchill Downs for final preparations.

6-Musket Man. Tampa Bay and Illinois Derby winner got vote of confidence from jockey Eibar Coa, but he’ll be facing a completely different caliber of horse when the Churchill Downs starting gates open.

7-Papa Clem. Smart Strike seems to keep siring one top runner after another, and Papa Clem is moving in the right direction as the first Saturday in May approaches. Gary Stute may be a Kentucky Derby rookie, but he’s no greenhorn, having gotten some big race experience when father Mel had Preakness winner Snow Chief and other top runners during a stellar training career.

8-Chocolate Candy. Interesting that a Santa Anita publicity staff survey of West Coast horsemen found a lot of support for this Candy Ride colt trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. Will have a lot of horses to come around at the top of the stretch when he makes his late run.

9-Advice. So what if his Coolmore Lexington win was on a Polytrack surface that has produced so many unpredictable results? He’s an improving colt in good hands who closed like gangbusters to beat a Polytrack-loving Square Eddie.

10-Desert Party. How he trains over the next 10 days will have a lot to say about his chances. It’s a very difficult transition to make, coming from Dubai to Kentucky, and will take a top horse to handle it. I just don’t think he’ll be up to the challenge.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. Empire Maker colt is scheduled to work at Santa Anita Wednesday for trainer Bob Baffert before shipping to Churchill Downs. Doesn’t get much respect for a horse coming into the Kentucky Derby off four consecutive graded stakes victories, but such is the influence of speed figures these days. I think speed figures are less relevant in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby than they are for everyday races because of the unique nature of the Derby.

2-I Want Revenge. Already stabled at Churchill Downs, which gives Stephen Got Even colt plenty of time to acclimate to the racing strip. One caveat: the track horses train over before the live meet begins is often dramatically different than the one they’ll have on Derby Day.

3- Dunkirk. Though I have nagging doubts in the back of my mind about why this son of Unbridled’s Song has been raced so sparingly, I’m confident he may be the best qualified of the Derby contenders to get distances of a mile and a quarter and beyond. How he trains over the next couple weeks will be key.

4-Quality Road. So far, so good on the patched up quarter crack. Unlike some owners and trainers who have run horses in the Derby that were physically compromised, I have confidence that neither Elusive Quality colt’s owner, Ned Evans, or trainer, Jimmy Jerkens, would do that. With the loss of speed horses The Pamplemousse and Old Fashioned, the pace scenario is shaping up in Quality Road’s favor.

5-Friesan Fire. The book on preparing a horse for the Kentucky Derby is being constantly rewritten, so I’m not discounting the A.P. Indy colt’s chances because of the seven weeks trainer Larry Jones is giving him between starts.  And while Louisiana Derby runner-up Papa Clem’s win in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby flattered Friesan Fire, I still don’t think he’s faced the toughest competition this winter.

6-Musket Man. Speaking of flattery, the win by General Quarters in the Toyota Blue Grass strengthened Musket Man’s Tampa Bay Derby triumph. There’s a lot to like about this son of Yonaguska, but the biggest question concerns his pedigree, specifically his propensity to get a classic distance.

7 Papa Clem. Good move by trainer Gary Stute to ship this Smart Strike colt to Oaklawn Park early to train up to the Arkansas Derby. Along with the two victories in New York by I Want Revenge, the win by Papa Clem shows the depth of this year’s California contingent, as both chased Pioneerof the Nile in earlier races.

8-General Quarters. I confess that I missed the trouble the Sky Mesa colt encountered when fifth in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I went back and watched the race again after hearing about it during Steve Byk’s “At the Races” radio show on Monday. Sure enough, he got the worst in that race and ran back to the strong form he showed in the Sam F. Davis while surprising Saturday’s Toyota Blue Grass Field. I don’t think that win was a fluke, but the Blue Grass field was a relatively unproven one.

9-Chocolate Candy. Was hurt more than anyone else by the lack of pace in the Santa Anita Derby, yet still closed strongly to be second to Pioneerof the Nile. Son of Candy Ride will need quick fractions to have a shot in the Kentucky Derby, and at this stage I’m not so sure he’ll get them.

10-Desert Party. It’s asking a lot of the Street Cry colt to ship halfway around the world twice in a six-month period. How he trains over the Churchill Downs surface over the next two and half weeks and how he looks will gives us a better idea of his chances to give Sheikh Mohammed his first win in the Kentucky Derby.

In what is truly becoming a pattern, this weekend’s biggest winner I Want Revenge jumped from the bottom of our poll to the fourth position after romping in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday afternoon. What should not be overlooked in the wake of his 8 1/2 length win is how much stronger the case can be made for Pioneerof the Nile. Head to head, Pioneer won by a narrow margin in the Hollywood Park CashCall Futurity and left Revenge in third in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. However, I Want Revenge proved that he can run on a dirt track in New York, something Pioneerof the Nile hasn’t yet done.

The two biggest losers of the week were Haynesfield and Stardom Bound. Haynesfield, one of the favorites going into the Gotham and a receipient of a first place vote in the last PDI, finished a dismal eighth and dropped completely out of the poll receiving no votes this week. And in light of a shaky performance and reports that Stardom Bound would be heading towards the Kentucky Oaks instead of the Derby, many of our voters dropped her from their lists causing her to fall from the 8th position to number 11.

While it was a relatively light weekend of racing, next week should be anything but with four major Derby preps being run. Study the poll closely this week. It may look very different after the smoke clears Sunday.

Ray’s Picks and Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. West Coast clockers were buzzing again about the Bob Baffert-trained colt after last Sunday’s five-furlong workout in :58 4/5 at Santa Anita. The work came a day after I Want Revenge, the colt Pioneerof the Nile has defeated twice, romped to victory in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. That East Coast win, while solidifying Pioneerof the Nile’s status as the West’s leading contender on the road to Churchill Downs, begs the question of how the switch from California’s synthetics to New York’s traditional dirt may have played into I Want Revenge’s stunning performance. Pioneerof the Nile (by Empire Maker) goes in Saturday’s Grade 2 San Felipe, part of a “fantastic four” afternoon of Kentucky Derby preps (along with Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby, Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, and Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds).

2-Old Fashioned. Also fired a bullet in his weekend workout at Oaklawn in preparation for the Rebel. Son of Unbridled’s Song will be the heavy favorite to keep a perfect record for trainer Larry Jones and Rick Porter’s Fox Hill Farms. Will be interesting to see whether Silver City, second to Old Fashioned in the Southwest Stakes, can make Old Fashioned work even harder for this victory.

3-I Want Revenge. Hard to say anything bad about Saturday’s whiz-bang knockout of his Gotham rivals at Aqueduct, his first start on a dirt track after six races on synthetics in California. Son of A.P. Indy stallion Stephen Got Even was a good horse going into the race and came out of it a budding star. His trainer, Jeff Mullins, may not be the most desirable individual to put up on the Churchill Downs podium on Derby day (he’s had his share of medication violations and it wasn’t that long ago he called racing fans “addicts and idiots”).But just like Big Brown last year, let’s not hold the horse accountable for the trainer’s bad behavior.

4-The Pamplemousse. Kafwain colt had an easy week after his big victory in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita. Should start gearing up for his next start in the coming days.

5-Quality Road. Would like to see trainer Jimmy Jerkens ship Elusive Quality colt north for the Wood Memorial and take on I Want Revenge. Right now I would give the edge to I Want Revenge because of his experience edge, particularly around two turns.

6-Friesan Fire. He’ll have his biggest test yet in the Louisiana Derby on Saturday and certainly didn’t scare anyone away, as nine other 3-year-olds will line up against him. Son of A.P. Indy blazed five furlongs Monday in :58 1/5 at Fair Grounds for Larry Jones to show that he’s on edge.

7-Desert Party. Not much news from the desert on Sheikh Mohammed’s leading Kentucky Derby candidate. I wouldn’t bet against son of Street Cry in U.A.E. Derby coming up later this month, but it’s a big hill to climb to run there and then ship halfway around the world for the Kentucky Derby.

8-Beethoven. I still consider Sky Mesa colt a legitimate dark horse for the Derby. Cutting back from two turns to one-turn mile in Fountain of Youth was not to his advantage. He needs to step up much bigger in next start.

9-Patena. Saturday’s Louisiana Derby will in some ways be a test to see if Rick Dutrow can move the Seeking the Gold colt up from his previous trainer, Josie Carroll, following IEAH Stable’s purchase of a majority interest. Runner-up to Friesan Fire last out had a solid :58 2/5 drill at Gulfstream Park on Monday. Definitely one to watch.

10-Theregoesjojo: It was a toss-up whether to keep son of Sky Mesa in the 10 position or bump him in favor of Stardom Bound, the desperate winner of Saturday’s Santa Anita Oaks who most likely is off the Kentucky Derby trail. It’s pretty clear that trainer Robert Frankel thinks Stardom Bound needs to stay in her own division, though it’s possible he could be overruled if she wins big in the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland next out. Theregoesjojo figures to improve off his effort in the Fountain of Youth.

Each of the four Derby preps this weekend will be interesting in its own way. Can Pioneerof the Nile continue his march successfully at Santa Anita? Will anyone stop Old Fashioned at Oaklawn? How will the Friesan Fire-Patena rematch play out? Did Barclay Tagg make the right move by shipping Hello Broadway to Tampa Bay for the Derby there? We’ll have some answers on Saturday night.

Ray Paulick	Fan Vote	Alex Brown	Paul Moran	Billy Reed	John Conte	Bill Finley
Paulick Report	Paulick Report	Alex Brown Racing	At The Races	Billy Reed Says	Conte’s Picks	ESPN, NYT
Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned	Quality Road	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned
Old Fashioned	I Want Revenge	Dunkirk	Stardom Bound	Quality Road	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile
I Want Revenge	The Pamplemousse	The Pamplemousse	Pioneerof the Nile	Dunkirk	I Want Revenge	Friesan Fire
The Pamplemousse	Friesan Fire	I Want Revenge	Quality Road	Pioneerof the Nile	Dunkirk	The Pamplemousse
Quality Road	Quality Road	Rachel Alexandra	I Want Revenge	Friesan Fire	West Side Bernie	Quality Road
Friesan Fire	Pioneerof the Nile	Desert Party	Hello Broadway	Hello Broadway	Chocolate Candy	I Want Revenge
Desert Party	Dunkirk	Pioneerof the Nile	The Pamplemousse	Desert Party	Capt. Candyman Can	Desert Party
Beethoven	Imperial Council	Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire	Patena	The Pamplemousse	Dunkirk
Patena	Desert Party	Patena	Desert Party	Beethoven	Hello Broadway	Silver City
Theregoesjojo	Patena	Hello Broadway	Dunkirk	Stardom Bound	Giant Oak	Patena

Randy Moss	Bill Nack	Valerie Grash	Gary West	Michael Nikolic	Dana Byerly	Jeremy Plonk
ESPN	ESPN	Foolish Pleasure	FW Star-Telegram	Gathering the Wind	Green But Game	Horseplayer Pro, ESPN
Quality Road	Dunkirk	Friesan Fire	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile
I Want Revenge	The Pamplemousse	Old Fashioned	Quality Road	Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire	Old Fashioned
Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile	Stardom Bound	Dunkirk	Desert Party	Flying Pegasus	Patena
Dunkirk	I Want Revenge	Rachel Alexandra	Hello Broadway	Patena	Desert Party	Friesan Fire
Pioneerof the Nile	Quality Road	I Want Revenge	Pioneerof the Nile	Pioneerof the Nile	Quality Road	Imperial Council
The Pamplemousse	Old Fashioned	Papa Clem	Friesan Fire	I Want Revenge	I Want Revenge	Hello Broadway
Friesan Fire	Stardom Bound	Hello Broadway	I Want Revenge	Chocolate Candy	Patena	Dunkirk
Theregoesjojo	Friesan Fire	Mr. Hot Stuff	Giant Oak	Papa Clem	Theregoesjojo	Quality Road
Desert Party	Desert Party	Imperial Council	Patena	Quality Road	Imperial Council	The Pamplemousse
Beethoven	Giant Oak	Dunkirk	Flying Pegasus	Flying Pegasus	Nowhere to Hide	Mr. Hot Stuff

Bill Christine	John Pricci	Vic Zast	Jon White	Richard Eng	Alan Mann	Alicia Wincze
Horserace Insider	Horserace Insider	Horserace Insider	HRTV, Santa Anita TV	Las Vegas R-J	Left at the Gate	Lexington H-L
Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile	Patena	Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned
I Want Revenge	Pioneerof the Nile	Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire
Desert Party	The Pamplemousse	Stardom Bound	I Want Revenge	Friesan Fire	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile
Pioneerof the Nile	I Want Revenge	The Pamplemousse	Quality Road	The Pamplemousse	Papa Clem	Desert Party
Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire	The Pamplemousse	Pioneerof the Nile	Stardom Bound	The Pamplemousse
Quality Road	Stardom Bound	Dunkirk	Friesan Fire	Quality Road	Dunkirk	Quality Road
Vineyard Haven	Quality Road	Desert Party	Patena	Dunkirk	The Pamplemousse	I Want Revenge
The Pamplemousse	Dunkirk	Capt. Candyman Can	Papa Clem	I Want Revenge	I Want Revenge	Hello Broadway
Theregoesjojo	Desert Party	Chocolate Candy	Dunkirk	Danger to Society	Flying Pegasus	Chocolate Candy
Patena	Hello Broadway	Quality Road	Chocolate Candy	Theregoesjojo	Imperial Council	Beethoven

Art Wilson	Joe Drape	Andy Serling	Jessica Chapel	Brendan O’Meara	Jeff Scott	Lisa Grimm
Los Angeles Newspapers	New York Times	NYRA	Railbird	The Saratogian	The Saratogian	SuperfectaBlog
The Pamplemousse	Old Fashioned	Imperial Council	Old Fashioned	Friesan Fire	I Want Revenge	Pioneerof the Nile
Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile	The Pamplemousse	Desert Party	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile	The Pamplemousse
Pioneerof the Nile	Quality Road	Desert Party	Friesan Fire	Desert Party	Friesan Fire	Old Fashioned
Dunkirk	The Pamplemousse	I Want Revenge	Pioneerof the Nile	Quality Road	Desert Party	Friesan Fire
I Want Revenge	Theregoesjojo	Rachel Alexandra	I Want Revenge	Dunkirk	Old Fashioned	I Want Revenge
Quality Road	Friesan Fire	Quality Road	Flying Pegasus	Take the Points	Flat Out	Quality Road
Papa Clem	Hello Broadway	Danger to Society	Regal Ransom	Pioneerof the Nile	Quality Road	Chocolate Candy
Imperial Council	Sumo	Old Fashioned	Dunkirk	I Want Revenge	The Pamplemousse	Stardom Bound
Friesan Fire	Dunkirk	Dunkirk	Quality Road	Imperial Council	General Quarters	Patena
Desert Party	I Want Revenge	Hello Broadway	Papa Clem	Nowhere to Hide	Mr. Hot Stuff	Hello Broadway

It seems that a trend is developing in the run up to the Derby. The last two weeks, we have had a contender appear out of nowhere to take the fourth position and even earn a couple of first place votes. Quality Road’s impeccable run to take the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth over some very impressive competition clearly made an impression on our voters.

Of course, this performance should not overshadow the equally strong outing by The Pamplemousse who rose seven places in our poll, moving comfortably into fifth place. It appears there might be a slight dirt vs. synthetic bias creeping in as Quality Road edges out The Pamplemousse and Old Fashioned continues to lead Pioneerof the Nile.

We have been honored with a few additional pollsters this week, adding Los Angeles Newspaper Group’s Art Wilson, Dana Byerly of Green But Game, web pioneer Alex Brown and Simon Bray of TVG. We are confident their expertise and passion for the game will be a great addition. Also, we would like to thank ESPN.com, the Lexington Herald-Leader and The Saratogian for picking up the weekly PDI.

Ray’s Picks and Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. Nothing has happened to change my belief that this son of the Unbridled stallion Empire Maker has the right profile to win the Kentucky Derby: solid pedigree, experience in high-class 2-year-old races, and a trainer who knows how to get a colt ready for his best on the first Saturday in May.

2-Old Fashioned. Interesting that Unbridled is the grandsire of the top two horses on my list. One of the most important sources of stamina we have in the Thoroughbred gene pool today, Unbridled (by the Mr. Prospector stallion Fappiano) was dismissed by speed figure followers coming into the 1990 Kentucky Derby. I thought his victory that year served as a reminder that the Derby is unique, and that traditional handicapping methods are not well-suited to the race. It’s more about horsemanship and getting a peak performance on the right afternoon, something Carl Nafzger did with Unbridled.

3-The Pamplemousse. Naysayers knock him as having a sprinter’s pedigree (by Kafwain, a son of sprint champion Cherokee Run, out of a Rubiano mare), but how could you not like the way he strided out down the stretch to pull away from his opponents in the nine-furlong Sham Stakes on Santa Anita’s synthetic Pro-Ride track? Appears to have just one way to go, and that’s on the front end.

4-Stardom Bound. We’ll know more about how last year’s 2-year-old filly champion is doing after Saturday’s Santa Anita Oaks. I think she’s an exceptional filly who will hold her own against colts if given the opportunity. Tapit, was a top-notch racehorse who was undone by the horribly sloppy conditions of the Churchill Downs track when Smarty Jones won the 2004 Derby, and he’s turning into a very promising young sire.

5-Quality Road. Lived up to his sensational morning workouts when he trounced his rivals in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Though it was only a one-turn mile (a configuration, by the way, that used to be considered a good prep in New York for horses like Secretariat and Easy Goer when the Gotham Stakes was run at that distance), Quality Road seemed to settle fine just off the early pace and move to the lead whenever John Velazquez wanted. Son of Elusive Quality (sire of Smarty Jones) will have to prove himself around two turns, and that opportunity probably will arise in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

6-Friesan Fire. Like several of my other top contenders, this son of A.P. Indy has a pedigree that suggests a mile and a quarter is within his scope. Of course, to quote the great Charlie Whittingham, “I know he can get a mile and a quarter. I just don’t know how fast!” The intriguing aspect of Friesan Fire’s family is the Australian female side that traces back to the exceptional racemare Bint Marscay and the great sire Sir Tristram. We’ll know more about his quality after the March 14 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, where he’s already won the LeComte and Risen Star Stakes.

7-Desert Party. The mystery horse from Dubai who’s burden got a lot heavier this past week with the announcement from Godolphin that 2-year-old champ and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman was injured and is off the Derby trail. A good 2-year-old in the U.S. last year, Desert Party has looked good thus far in Dubai but has some history to overcome.

8-Beethoven. If Gulfstream Park’s main track was playing to speed last Saturday, then Beethoven got the worst of it in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes. The son of Sky Mesa came from far back in the one-turn mile to get third, which was a forward moving performance that should be encouraging to his connections.

9-Patena. Aside from the super-hyped allowance winner Dunkirk (not on my top 10), no horse is getting more pre-race attention than this son of Seeking the Gold, who was purchased by IEAH Stables after running second to Friesan Fire in the LeComte Stakes in January and shifted from the barn of Josie Carroll to Rick Dutrow. All systems appear to be a go for the Louisiana Derby after a six-furlong workout at Gulfstream Park last Saturday. The important thing, according to Dutrow, is that Patena “scoped clean” after the work. He had been coughing for about 10 days, the trainer said. “We’ve been clearing different issues, and it seems to all be coming together,” Dutrow said.

10-Theregoesjojo. Finished well to be second to Quality Road in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth for trainer Ken McPeek, who was pleased with the effort. Son of Brahms (by Danzig) defeated Quality Road in his previous start Jan. 10 and should be tighter after his most recent race. Not sure where he will surface, but it won’t take that much improvement for Jojo to get his first stakes win.

Ray Paulick	Fan Vote	Alex Brown	Paul Moran	Bill Reed	John Conte	Bill Finley
Paulick Report	Paulick Report	Alex Brown Racing	At The Races	Billy Reed Says	Conte’s Picks	ESPN, NYT
Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned	Quality Road	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned
Old Fashioned	The Pamplemousse	Dunkirk	Stardom Bound	Quality Road	The Pamplemousse	Pioneerof the Nile
The Pamplemousse	Quality Road	Stardom Bound	Pioneerof the Nile	Dunkirk	Dunkirk	Friesan Fire
Stardom Bound	Dunkirk	Old Fashioned	Quality Road	Pioneerof the Nile	Pioneerof the Nile	The Pamplemousse
Quality Road	Pioneerof the Nile	The Pamplemousse	Hello Broadway	Friesan Fire	Quality Road	Stardom Bound
Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire	Rachel Alexandra	The Pamplemousse	Hello Broadway	Haynesfield	Quality Road
Desert Party	Stardom Bound	Desert Party	Friesan Fire	Desert Party	Friesan Fire	Desert Party
Beethoven	Desert Party	Affirmatif	Desert Party	Patena	Hello Broadway	Haynesfield
Patena	Patena	Haynesfield	Evita Argentina	Beethoven	Chocolate Candy	Dunkirk
Theregoesjojo	Hello Broadway	Pioneerof the Nile	Dunkirk	Stardom Bound	West Side Bernie	Siver City

Randy Moss	Bill Nack	Valerie Grash	Gary West	Michael Nikolic	Dana Byerly	Jeremy Plonk
ESPN	ESPN	Foolish Pleasure	FW Star-Telegram	Gathering The Wind	Green But Game	Horseplayer Pro, ESPN
Quality Road	Dunkirk	Friesan Fire	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	N/A
Old Fashioned	The Pamplemousse	Old Fashioned	Dunkirk	Friesan Fire	Stardom Bound	N/A
Dunkirk	Pioneerof the Nile	Stardom Bound	Quality Road	Desert Party	Friesan Fire	N/A
The Pamplemousse	Quality Road	Rachel Alexandra	Hello Broadway	Patena	Flying Pegasus	N/A
Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire	Desert Party	Friesan Fire	Pioneerof the Nile	Desert Party	N/A
Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned	Dunkirk	Pioneerof the Nile	Chocolate Candy	Quality Road	N/A
Theregoesjojo	Giant Oak	Chocolate Candy	Imperial Council	Papa Clem	Patena	N/A
Desert Party	Desert Party	Papa Clem	Giant Oak	Quality Road	Theregoesjojo	N/A
Beethoven	Stardom Bound	Hello Broadway	Patena	Flying Pegasus	Imperial Council	N/A
Hello Broadway	Patena	Mr. Hot Stuff	Flying Pegasus	Dunkirk	Nowhere to Hide	N/A

Bill Christine	John Pricci	Vic Zast	Jon White	Richard Eng	Alan Mann	Alicia Wincze
Horserace Insider	Horserace Insider	Horserace Insider	HRTV, Santa Anita TV	Las Vegas R-J	Left At The Gate	Lexington H-L
Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile	Patena	Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned
Desert Party	Pioneerof the Nile	Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire
Pioneerof the Nile	Stardom Bound	Stardom Bound	Stardom Bound	Friesan Fire	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile
Friesan Fire	The Pamplemousse	The Pamplemousse	Quality Road	The Pamplemousse	Dunkirk	Desert Party
Stardom Bound	Quality Road	Friesan Fire	The Pamplemousse	Pioneerof the Nile	Papa Clem	Stardom Bound
Quality Road	Friesan Fire	Dunkirk	Friesan Fire	Quality Road	Big Drama	The Pamplemousse
Haynesfield	Hello Broadway	Desert Party	Patena	Dunkirk	Stardom Bound	Quality Road
Vineyard Haven	Mr. Fantasy	Capt. Candyman Can	Papa Clem	Haynesfield	The Pamplemousse	Hello Broadway
The Pamplemousse	Theregoesjojo	Chocolate Candy	I Want Revenge	Mr. Fantasy	Mr. Fantasy	Haynesfield
Theregoesjojo	Desert Party	Quality Road	Dunkirk	Danger to Society	Flying Pegasus	Chocolate Candy

Art Wilson	Joe Drape	Andy Serling	Brendan O’Meara	Jeff Scott	Jessica Chapel	Lisa Grimm
LA Newspaper Group	New York Times	NYRA	The Saratogian	The Saratogian	Railbird	SuperfectaBlog
Haynesfield	Old Fashioned	Desert Party	Friesan Fire	Pioneerof the Nile	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile
The Pamplemousse	Pioneerof the Nile	Giant Oak	Old Fashioned	Friesan Fire	Desert Party	The Pamplemousse
Old Fashioned	Quality Road	The Pamplemousse	Desert Party	Desert Party	Friesan Fire	Old Fashioned
Pioneerof the Nile	The Pamplemousse	Imperial Council	Quality Road	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile	Friesan Fire
Dunkirk	Theregoesjojo	Rachel Alexandra	Dunkirk	Flat Out	Flying Pegasus	Stardom Bound
Quality Road	Friesan Fire	Quality Road	Take the Points	Dunkirk	Regal Ransom	Chocolate Candy
Papa Clem	Hello Broadway	Danger to Society	The Pamplemousse	General Quarters	Papa Clem	Patena
Friesan Fire	Haynesfield	Old Fashioned	Pioneerof the Nile	Quality Road	Dunkirk	Quality Road
Desert Party	Sumo	Dunkirk	Nowhere to Hide	The Pamplemousse	Capt. Candyman Can	Hello Broadway
I Want Revenge	Dunkirk	Hello Broadway	Imperial Council	Mr. Hot Stuff	The Pamplemousse	Capt. Candyman Can

Patrick Patten	Peter Denk	Nick Kling	Simon Bray	Todd Schrupp
Tbred Bloggers Alliance	Thoroughbred Times	The Troy Record	TVG	TVG
Friesan Fire	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned	Old Fashioned
General Quarters	Dunkirk	Patena	Pioneerof the Nile	Stardom Bound
Chocolate Candy	Quality Road	Dunkirk	The Pamplemousse	Desert Party
Pioneerof the Nile	Desert Party	Imperial Council	Friesan Fire	The Pamplemousse
The Pamplemousse	Pioneerof the Nile	Friesan Fire	Dunkirk	Quality Road
Hello Broadway	Stardom Bound	Hello Broadway	I Want Revenge	Friesan Fire
Patena	Patena	Flying Pegasus	Hello Broadway	Dunkirk
Old Fashioned	Friesan Fire	Giant Oak	Chocolate Candy	Affirmatif
Quality Road	The Pamplemousse	West Side Bernie	Quality Road	Pioneerof the Nile
Flying Pegasus	Mr. Fantasy	Beethoven	Desert Party	I Want Revenge