Posts Tagged ‘Friesan Fire’

The Paulick Report is pleased to once again offer the pedigree insights of Edwin Anthony in the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Ed has lifelong experience in the Thoroughbred industry, has practical experience planning matings for his family’s stable and formerly as a pedigree adviser to Three Chimneys Farm. His perspective is straightforward and refreshingly opinionated, and I advise anyone interested in Thoroughbred pedigrees to pick up a copy of his book, “The American Thoroughbred (Volume One)”—available for purchase here.

In this first of a series of articles, he looks at the pedigree of Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth winner Eskendereya. – Ray Paulick

ESKENDEREYA (Giant’s Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew)
By Edwin Anthony
I wrote a series of eight pedigree profiles for horses on the “Triple Crown trail” starting about this time last year, and recent Fountain of Youth (G2) winner Eskendereya will serve as the first horse in our series this season. It’s interesting to look back at the horses we profiled last year (Friesan Fire, Quality Road, Pioneerof the Nile, Dunkirk, I Want Revenge, Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy, Rachel Alexandra) to see how they fared.

Quality Road is obviously a top horse (he missed the Triple Crown with quarter cracks), while Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile were each able to place in one classic race, and I wrote a token piece about Rachel Alexandra because she looked like a very special filly, even though she had not won anything more than a G2 race at that stage.  Only a fortune teller could have predicted Rachel Alexandra’s Horse of the Year campaign after changing hands or the rapid ascension of Birdstone (sire of longshot classic winners Mine That Bird and Summer Bird) as a major classic influence.

Even though I have studied Thoroughbred pedigrees for going on 25 years, no one can get around the folly of bad luck, injuries in training, or the fact that many horses look dominant going nine furlongs (a mile-and-an-eighth) but simply aren’t up to the demanding task of running classic distances at a competitive speed.

That’s the mystery of stamina and genetics that we’re constantly trying to figure out.  Of course, even a horse that is capable of competing at classic distances still needs to put out the effort, and sometimes horses have off-days just like people.

If nothing else, we strive to learn about the strengths and limitations of the stallions and ancestors under discussion and hope to come out smarter on the other side.  At the very least, we want to learn what strategies are working in pedigrees, even if some of them aren’t up to the classic standard.  Who are the soundest horses, where is the stamina coming from, and what ancestors are best to inbreed to?  These are the answers we’re looking for.

Pedigree analysts (like myself) try to identify patterns in graded stakes results as a way of predicting the future.  Given that the Storm Cat line has been a poor source of classic winners, then you probably wouldn’t want to lean heavily on Storm Cat’s sons (or stallions out of Storm Cat mares) in your stallion recommendations for breeders that want to breed for the classics.  The Storm Cat line hasn’t had a winner of a Triple Crown race since Tabasco Cat in 1994, although Bluegrass Cat was second in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont, and Travers in 2006.  You should note that Bluegrass Cat is out of a mare by classic influence A.P. Indy and his dam is heavily inbred to the foundation mare La Troienne, including being from the Numbered Account (champion 2YO filly by Buckpasser) branch of that important family.

So, while the Storm Cat line is dominant in 2-year-old racing and in races contested at distances of 9 furlongs or shorter, it does not appear capable of producing classic types, unless there is a LOT of help on the dam side of the equation.  Of course, when you start to speak in these kinds of absolutes, a special horse can come along and provide us with the exception to the rule.

Storm Cat’s son Giant’s Causeway was a tough campaigner in Europe out of a good racemare by Rahy, with a second dam by English Derby winner and classic influence Roberto.  He was undeniably consistent and high class, winning a series of Group 1 races at more than a mile. In his final start, he gave classic distance specialist Tiznow a real run for his money in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, that being his only start on dirt.  So, Giant’s Causeway was sound, very fast, and capable of competing with top horses at the American classic distance of 10 furlongs (a mile-and-a-quarter).  This makes him an exception among sons of Storm Cat, as most of his sons that have found any measure of success at stud were much better at a mile or less and have passed on this penchant for speed among their progeny.

Giant’s Causeway has already sired Grade 1 winners in America over 10 furlongs like Heatseeker (Santa Anita Handicap), Frost Giant (Suburban), and Red Giant (NWR, Clement L. Hirsch Memorial Turf Championship), so you can see that if there is a son of Storm Cat capable of siring an American classic winner, then Giant’s Causeway is probably the one.

The runaway win by Eskendereya (by Giant’s Causeway) in the Fountain of Youth (G2) was more than visually impressive.  You could see that the horse really relished the opportunity to go two turns, and he is now 3 for 3 on the dirt, his only losses coming in his first start (a maiden event on turf at Saratoga) and a poor effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), contested over the synthetic surface at Santa Anita.  He was reported to have a troubled trip in that race as well.

I have often thought that a true classic type horse is able to simply get into a steady gallop and carve out “12’s,” which is to say that he can consistently complete each furlong of a race in 12 seconds.  It becomes increasingly difficult to do with each furlong, as the muscles begin to tire, and Secretariat’s world record time of 2:24 in the 1973 Belmont (over 12 furlongs) is the best example of a horse being able to accomplish this feat over such a distance.  It’s not about an explosive move or “turn of foot” with classic horses; it’s steady horsepower over a distance.  Classic horses “stay” (as the Europeans like to say), while horses more suited to shorter distances simply run out of gas, unable to maintain a steady stream of “12’s” on the toteboard teletimer.

This is exactly what Eskendereya did to the field in the Fountain of Youth (G2)—he galloped them into submission.  After taking over after a half-mile in a soft 47.92, he completed six furlongs in 1:12.41, a mile in 1:36.54, with a final time for nine furlongs of 1:48.87, echoing the many 12-second furlongs before the last one.  So, like several other sons of Giant’s Causeway, Eskendereya looks capable of running a distance of ground as far as 10 furlongs at a competitive rate of speed.  Let’s look at the bottom side of his pedigree to check for more stamina.

Eskendereya’s damsire, Seattle Slew, won the Triple Crown and has been a very successful classic influence, with descendants like A.P. Indy (Belmont, Breeders’ Cup Classic), Bernardini (Preakness, Travers), Cigar (Breeders’ Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup), Lemon Drop Kid (Belmont, Travers), Mineshaft (Jockey Club Gold Cup, Suburban), and Slew o’ Gold (Jockey Club Gold Cup twice) serving as notable examples.

Alydar (second in all 3 Triple Crown races to Affirmed) is the sire of Eskendereya’s second dam, and beyond the fact that he sired two Kentucky Derby winners (Alysheba and Strike the Gold) and a Belmont winner (Easy Goer), Horse of the Year Point Given (Preakness, Belmont, Travers) was produced by a mare by champion Turkoman, he being a son of Alydar.

We know that inbreeding to the family of Almahmoud (second dam of both Halo and Northern Dancer) has been quite successful, and Giant’s Causeway is a very good example of this, as Storm Cat is a grandson of Northern Dancer and Rahy (his damsire) is out of a mare by Halo.  The pedigree of Eskendereya shows why a six-generation computer program is a good investment, as his third dam carries intensive inbreeding to the Almahmoud family as well.  His third dam is by Northern Dancer himself (giving Eskendereya “balanced” inbreeding to Northern Dancer—through a son and a daughter), and while his fourth dam was sired by the stout stamina influence Ribot (winner of the 12-furlong “Arc” twice) his fifth dam is actually the mare Cosmah, she being the dam of Halo and a daughter of Almahmoud. Thus, Eskendereya is not only inbred to Northern Dancer through  a son and a daughter, he is inbred to Halo’s dam, Cosmah, 6 x 5 and carries four total crosses of Almahmoud.

As the ancestors Northern Dancer, Halo, and their granddam Almahmoud get further back in pedigrees, this reinforcement strategy of crossing horses inbred to Almahmoud should continue to find success and revive their influence in classic pedigrees.  My parents bred and raced Preakness winner Pine Bluff (inbred 4 x 4 to Almahmoud), and I have noticed him working well with reinforcement of Almahmoud’s genes, crossing successfully with stallions like More Than Ready (by Southern Halo—closely inbred to Almahmoud), Menifee (by Harlan—closely inbred to Almahmoud), and Jules (from the Northern Dancer family and carrying Halo in his pedigree).  So, it seems to be a strategy that is paying dividends with stallions and mares already carrying inbreeding to Almahmoud.

Given the fact that Giant’s Causeway has already proven capable of siring runners that excel at classic distances, and the fact that Eskendereya carries a number of other classic influences in his pedigree (Seattle Slew, Alydar, Ribot, and intensive inbreeding to the influential Almahmoud family), I’d say that his classic prospects look very bright indeed.  His clear preference for dirt racing and ability to string together one 12 second furlong after another only boosts his stock, in my opinion.  If Eskenereya can arrive in Louisville with a solid Florida Derby (G1) effort under his belt, he should be a very strong contender.
 
Edwin Anthony was the staff pedigree consultant at Three Chimneys Farm for six years and has penned dozens of articles on pedigree research.  He also published The American Thoroughbred (Volume I) in 2008, which can be ordered via the banner ad link on this web page or on his web site at www.thoroughbredadvisor.com.

Kentucky Derby preps are in full swing across the country with more than a few contenders from the 2007 foal crop hoping to emerge as stars. Gulfstream Park will present two graded stakes for 3-year-olds, the Hutcheson, at seven furlongs, and the 1 1/8-mile Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth, both Grade 2. In the Hutcheson, Rick Dutrow has two entries, Radiohead and D’Funnybone, the likely favorite. Rick’s brother, Tony Dutrow, also has an entry in the Hutcheson, A Little Warm. Nick Zito’s Jackson Bend will face nine rivals in the Fountain of Youth. The diminutive son of Hear No Evil had a five-race win streak broken in his last out when he ran second to Winslow Homer in the Holy Bull. His biggest challenger appears to be Remsen winner Buddy’s Saint.

Gulfstream has also carded a pair of complementary G3 grass races for older horses on Saturday—for the ladies it’s the Honey Fox and the guys run in the Canadian Turf. An overflow field has entered the Honey Fox, including Bluegrass Princess, Backseat Rhythm, and Quiet Harbor, who brings with her a string of five consecutive wins. Courageous Cat makes his 2010 debut in the Canadian Turf; he finished his 2009 campaign with a sensational runner-up effort to Eclipse Award winner Goldikova in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

After inclement weather at Oaklawn Park forced the cancellation of last Monday’s G3 Southwest Derby, it was rescheduled for Saturday. Conveyance, Cardiff Giant and Domonation, the first three finishers in the San Rafael Stakes, shipped in from California and all remained on the grounds and re-entered one mile test.

At the Fair Grounds, the spotlight will be on 3-year-olds in the G3 Silverbulletday, for fillies, and the G2 Risen Star, for colts and geldings. Both races are 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. In the Silverbulletday, Todd Pletcher’s Devil May Care is the slight morning-line favorite over the Dale Romans-trained Quiet Temper. A full field of 12 goes to the gate in the Risen Star; the top choices here are Bill Mott’s Drosselmeyer, and from the Tom Amoss barn, Ron the Greek.

Also, at Fair Grounds on Saturday, two other G3 stakes will be run for older horses—the Mineshaft, at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, and the Fair Grounds Handicap, 1 1/8 miles on turf. The one-two finishers in the Jan. 23 Louisiana Handicap, Friesan Fire and General Quarters, will face off again in the Mineshaft, while the Fair Grounds Handicap has attracted the likes of Acting Zippy, Transduction Gold and the now 10-year-old Silverfoot. Giant Oak is entered as well, but will run only if the race is transferred to dirt.

The other graded Derby prep on Saturday is the G3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields in Northern California. Ranger Heartley and Connemara are the likely favorites among eight entered in the 1 1/8-mile dirt contest; they ran first and second, respectively, in the Jan. 16 California Derby.

Saturday’s Santa Anita card features the G2 San Carlos Handicap, a seven furlong dirt race for 4-year-olds and up. Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Dancing In Silks hopes to rebound from his third-place finish in the Palos Verdes and earn a trip to the Golden Shaheen in Dubai in late March. His day could be spoiled by Ventana, runner-up in the Palos Verdes, or the speed demon, Bob Black Jack, off since winning the 2008 Malibu.

On Sunday, the only graded stakes action takes place at Santa Anita with the running of the G2 San Luis Obispo Handicap for older horses on the turf at the marathon distance of  1 ½ miles. Obrigado, now a 7-year-old, won this race in 2007 and makes his seasonal debut here. The Neil Drysdale trainee will face eight rivals, including his stablemate Bourbon Bay.

Do you know an individual or organization who you think we should consider for an upcoming “Good News Friday” feature? Then please e-mail info@paulickreport.com with the name of the individual or organization and a brief description of why you think they should be featured. Additionally, we’d like to thank Rob Whiteley and Liberation Farm for encouraging us to bring to light some of the industry’s positive stories and for sponsoring this exclusive Paulick Report feature.

By Bradford Cummings
Oftentimes, the racing industry loses sight of what is important when trying to market its product. Talk of increased handle, while necessary for the bottom line of racetracks, does not change the public perception and momentum of a sport that has continued a slow and steady slide over the last 20 years. In order to grow this sport, racing needs new fans, not old fans making more bets.
 
So when the ratings came out for the Kentucky Derby and most recently the Preakness Stakes, it was a breath of fresh air and a much-needed shot in the arm for the psyche of racing. The first two legs of the Triple Crown brought in an average of 13.4 million viewers, the most since 1989 when Sunday Silence won both Classics over Easy Goer in a spirited East vs. West rivalry.
 
Individually, the Kentucky Derby brought in 16.3 million viewers with a 9.8 rating and 23 share, up 2.1 million viewers from last year. The Preakness came in at a strong 10.9 million viewers, pulling a 6.8 rating and 16 share. This number was up 3 million viewers from last year’s version with Big Brown easily pulling away from the field.
 
For those not familiar with the television ratings system, the Derby’s 9.8 rating means that 9.8% of all households with televisions were tuned into NBC’s telecast on the first Saturday of May while the 23 share means 23% of all televisions in use watched Mine That Bird pull an unprecedented upset. That means nearly a quarter of all Americans watching television showed an interest in racing’s biggest event.
 
Perhaps most significant was the true lack of a compelling storyline going into the race. Most of the favorites had been sidelined before the Derby, and morning line favorite I Want Revenge was scratched the morning of the race with an injury, leaving what has been proved to be an overrated colt from the Louisiana circuit in Friesan Fire as the betting choice. And while other sports have the ability to build audience throughout the course of a 3 hour game, the fact that a 50-1 shot won the race would have had virtually no effect on the ratings because of how quickly the telecast ends.
 
Much credit must go to NBC, which did an admirable job selling the event throughout the week prior with promos on mainstream mainstays like the Today Show and investing in a solid marketing campaign. The fact a long shot won only added to the mystique of the Derby they so effectively sold.
 
That momentum allowed for the male vs. female storyline to be created with Rachel Alexandra and the unintended positive consequences of media coverage from Mark Allen and Ahmed Zayat’s conspiring to keep her on the sidelines. Proving the old adage there’s no such thing as bad press, the Preakness well out performed every other running this decade except for Smarty Jones in 2004, which brought a 7.7 rating and 23 share.
 
Of course, all of these numbers are irrelevant without some perspective and comparison to other top events in high profile professional U.S. sports. While the Kentucky Derby will not be in the same league as the Super Bowl anytime soon with its 42 rating, racing’s biggest day in 2009 stands incredibly strong with other major championship equivalents.
 
The final game of the NBA Championship from last year, in a matchup of the two most storied franchises in the league, drew only 12.6 million viewers.  The Stanley Cup Playoffs featuring the Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins never saw more than 6.8 million folks tune in to a game. The Daytona 500, the most prestigious race in NASCAR, was down this year to a modest 15.95 million television fans. Even America’s Pastime peaked with just 15.49 million at home spectators during last year’s final World Series game.

Something the ratings do not take into account is the large number of racing fans who watch and wager on events like the Triple Crown races and Breeders’ Cup at a local track or simulcast site. Kentucky Derby Day is the biggest day of the year at some tracks, and those in attendance are not counted as television viewers.

This ranks the Kentucky Derby as the second most watched professional sporting championship of the last year, a fact few in the industry would have assumed. And the news is actually better than it looks. Wedged in at around 6 p.m. EST and potentially distracted by the dinner bell or an eventful Saturday, a viewer more likely schedules their day around the Derby coverage whereas a typical championship game appears during the primetime hours of 8-11 pm. That coupled with the lack of build up for the average racing fan as evidenced by the paltry ratings of preps like the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby, means racing has a legitimate opportunity to capture the imagination of the public if marketed correctly.
 
With drug issues and safety concerns being taken seriously, there will be an opening for racing to breeze through. Will we take the opening and shoot through like Mine That Bird’s last to first rally on May 2nd? Will we look at what we have and figure out how to sell this beautiful sport to the masses beyond the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes? Can we turn the Breeders’ Cup into a legitimate championship that builds from January on?
 
The good news is we can.

Liberation Farm celebrates the many horsemen and horsewomen who strive each day to make things better for horses and those who work with them.  To learn more about Liberation Farm, click here.

Previous Good News Friday subjects: Father Chris Clay, The Race for Education, Military Appreciation Day at Keeneland, Kentucky Oaks Pink Out for the Susan G. Komen Foundation, Mary Lee-Butte and the Blue Grass Farms Chaplaincy, Mary Jo Pons and the Radio Reading Network

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

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It has been almost two weeks since Mine That Bird and jockey Calvin Borel shocked the sports world with their improbable long shot victory in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. And as with any Derby aftermath, the question lingers in the air; will this be the year we end the Triple Crown drought? If our voters are any indication, the answer is an emphatic no as Mine That Bird is ranked in fourth place among the 14 horses prospective Preakness starters.

Furthermore, Calvin Borel’s decision to forego the Derby hero to ride the amazing Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness, an unprecedented move in the 135 years of the Kentucky Derby, goes even more to the point that this may not be the year racing celebrates its 12th Triple Crown champion. Instead, the consensus of our 23 voters, including the fans, was overwhelmingly in favor of Rachel Alexandra to run away with this much anticipated race. Will this hold true? Will trainer Bob Baffert spoil the Oaks/Derby story line with Pioneerof the Nile? Or perhaps we will see another unlikely outcome with a different long shot coming out of nowhere to take the prize. Only Saturday will tell.

Ray Paulick’s Preakness Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. Sure, he looked like he was running in slow motion in the Kentucky Derby compared to Mine That Bird when he rocketed up the rail to victory, but I think the condition of the racetrack had a lot to do with the outcome of the race. Pioneerof the Nile was well off the rail on what I think was the slower part of the track all the way and closer to the pace than expected. I liked the son of Empire Maker going into the Derby, and I think he dispelled concerns that he was a horse that could only run on synthetic tracks. His workout on Monday morning that prompted trainer Bob Baffert to give Pioneerof the Nile the green light to go to Pimlico indicates he came out of the Derby in very good shape.

2- Papa Clem. Smart Strike colt wanted to run more in the early going of the Kentucky Derby while jockey Rafael Bejarano was trying to get him to settle off the pace, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a change of tactics for the Preakness. Gary Stute-trained colt has shown versatility in the past, going to the front and setting moderate fractions to win or coming from midpack, as he did in taking the Arkansas Derby. Preakness field won’t be without pace, with Big Drama and Take the Points expected to show early speed. I’d look for Papa Clem to be just behind the early leaders.

3-Rachel Alexandra. The only knock on the filly is that she hasn’t really faced top-class competition yet. The Kentucky Oaks was her first Grade 1 race, and the field was pretty weak by Oaks standards. Nevertheless, what she did, running away from her beleaguered rivals to win by 20 π lengths, with her jockey sitting like a statue (except for the occasional glance back), was remarkable. This is a huge step up, and I’m not convinced that she’s up to the task.

4-Friesan Fire. Big disappointment in the Kentucky Derby after being sent off as the betting favorite on a sloppy racetrack that everyone thought he would like, following his eye-catching Louisiana Derby win in the slop at Fair Ground. Got bumped around pretty good at the start and came back with some minor cuts and scrapes. A.P. Indy colt has bounced back quickly for trainer Larry Jones and his Tuesday morning workout at Pimlico (five furlongs in :58.40) was very sharp.

5-Mine That Bird. Can’t take the Kentucky Derby victory away from him, no matter how strange the track might have played or how all the so-called “experts” (myself included) dismissed his chances going into the race. He was champion 2-year-old in Canada last year, and it’s clear that in his two losses in New Mexico he didn’t get the right kind of trip. Whether he was pushed to the lead early by Casey Lambert or moved on his own, he came up empty in the stretch of both the Borderland and Sunland Derbies. I think the track and especially a rail bias played in his favor for the Kentucky Derby, but Calvin Borel deserves a great deal of credit for saving Mine That Bird for one big run from far back. I don’t see a repeat performance in the Preakness.

6-Musket Man. Finished with determination in the Kentucky Derby after suffering some early problems, closing to get third while on the far outside, the deepest or stickiest part of the racetrack that day. Never worse than third in seven lifetime starts.

7-Take the Points. Skipped the Kentucky Derby to point for the Preakness, so trainer Todd Pletcher has a very fresh horse going into the race. May not have liked the synthetic surfaces or maybe he just wasn’t sharp  enough to win either of his two California starts. I wouldn’t be surprised to see big improvement.

8-Big Drama. Almost certain to set the pace in the Preakness, and though the Montbrook colt has stretched his speed out to 1 1/16 miles before, he hasn’t done it against this level of competition.

9-General Quarters. Didn’t really like his chances in the Kentucky Derby and I don’t think he’s moved up with his training since finishing 10th at Churchill Downs.

10-Terrain. On a five-race losing streak since being moved up from third to first in the Arlington-Washington Futurity last September. Would take a major form reversal to threaten here.

By Ray Paulick
Calvin Borel took a familiar inside route to victory in the 135th Kentucky Derby, running away from the field to score an unlikely victory at 50-1 aboard Mine That Bird, a $9,500 yearling purchase who was coming off a fourth-place finish in the Sunland Derby at Sunland Park in New Mexico. It was the second-biggest upset in Derby history.

Mine That Bird came from last in the field of 19 to win by 6 3/4 lengths, defeating Santa Anita Derby winner Pioneerof the Nile, who was attempting to give trainer Bob Baffert his fourth victory in the Kentucky Derby. Musket Man finished a nose back in third, a head in front of  Papa Clem in fourth.

Final time of the race was 2:02.66 on a sloppy track. As expected, Join in the Dance established the early, zipping through fractions of :22.98, :47.23, 1:12.09 and 1:37.49 for the opening mile. Regal Ransom, one of two horses coming from Dubai for the Godolphin operation of Sheikh Mohammed, pressed the pace, with Papa Clem and Pioneerof the Nile in close proximity behind the leading pair. Garrett Gomez, aboard Pioneerof the Nile, asked his colt to run approaching the three-eighths pole and made a strong move for the lead. But Borel, whose nickname "Bo-rail" comes from his love of taking the shortest route around the track, was moving fastest of all aboard Mine That Bird, who shot through a narrow opening and took command at the eighth pole. He drew off in the blink of an eye.

The victory was reminiscent of his winning ride aboard Street Sense in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. This was Borel’s second victory in the Kentucky Derby. He won yesterday’s Kentucky Oaks by more than 20 lengths aboard Rachel Alexandra.

The complete order of finish was: Mine That Bird, Pioneerof the Nile, Musket Man, Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy, Summer Bird, Join in the Dance, Regal Ransom, West Side Bernie, General Quarters, Dunkirk (who stumbled badly coming out of the gate), Hold Me Back, Advice, Desert Party, Mr. Hot Stuff, Atomic Rain, Nowhere to Hide, Friesan Fire and Flying Private.

Bennie Woolley, who is one crutches after a motorcycle accident, trains Mine That Bird for Double Eagle Ranch, and drove the gelding to Churchill Downs from New Mexico in a horse van. The Derby winner is by Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone (a son of Kentucky Derby winner Grindstone) out of the Smart Strike mare Mining My Own. He was purchased at the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October yearling sale for just $9,500. Mine That Bird was bred in Kentucky by Peter Lamantia, James  Blackburn and Needham/Betz Thoroughbreds.

Mine That Bird began his career in Canada under the tutelage of trainer David Cotey. He finished fifth in his career debut in July, then reeled off four consecutive victories, including a half-length victory in the Grade 3 Grey Stakes that gave Mine That Bird sufficient graded stakes earnings to make the Derby field. He was sold privately to his current owners and finished 12th behind Midshipman in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita (where he was saddled by Richard Mandella), then raced twice in New Mexico this winter, finishing a narrowly beaten second in the Borderland Derby and fourth in the Sunland Derby, both ungraded stakes races.

This was Mine That Bird’s fifth career victory in nine lifetime starts. He is the ninth gelding to win the Derby.

Friesan Fire was made the 7-2 betting favorite in the Derby on the strength of a victory over a sloppy track in March in the Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds, his third consecutive win at the New Orleans track. The son of A.P. Indy was favored in the betting on Friday afternoon before the Saturday morning scratch of morning-line favorite I Want Revenge. That latter colt, a son of Stephen Got Even trained by Jeff Mullins, was withdrawn from the race because of lameness detected in his left front ankle early Saturday morning.

Attendance was 153,563, the seventh-largest crowd in Derby history.

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

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Friesan Fire will likely go postward as the solid favorite in the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby, based on odds at 3 p.m. Saturday, just over three hours before the 19 3-year-olds take to the Churchill Downs surface for the mile and a quarter event. The son of A.P. Indy comes off a 7 1/4-length victory in the Louisiana Derby on a sloppy racetrack at Fair Grounds in New Orleans March 14, and appears to be the only starter in the field with "off" track credentials. 

The Churchill Downs racing surface is currently rated sloppy after heavy overnight and morning gains. No additional precipitation is expected before the Derby (estimated post time of 6:24 p.m. Eastern), but cool temperatures and heavy humidity are making it difficult for maintenance crews to dry the track out.

Friesan Fire has been bet down from his 5-1 morning line and was the favorite in Friday afternoon wagering before Saturday morning’s scratch of morning line favorite I Want Revenge.

We’ll update the odds on the hour.

In a week that should have shown little movement in the rankings of the Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment, the Paulick Derby Index has actually shown some fluctuation as co-favorite Quality Road was withdrawn from the race on Monday because of complications resulting from a quarter crack. I Want Revenge, clearly now the favorite among our ballot stuffers, will lead a top ten that has lost some star power with several favorites not making the trip due to injury. That being said, this is still as strong a group as we have seen in years. The Derby this year should be an exciting one to watch with anywhere from 5-10 horses in legitimate contention.
 
You will also notice that the final week’s Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment features only the top ten contenders. We did this to put an onus on the top echelon of the field and make our last list more exclusive.

Finally, due to the fact that all ballots are submitted by 9 PM EST Monday night and well before Square Eddie’s withdrawal, you will see him on several ballots.
 
Will the PDI be the great predictor it portends to be on Saturday? Only time will tell.

1-Pioneerof the Nile. The Kentucky Derby is a tough race to win, even if everything goes your way, and it’s almost impossible for a horse to win if his training has been interrupted. Witness Unbridled’s Song, who battled foot problems coming up to the 1996 Derby, where he might have been the best horse but finished fifth while racing with a bar shoe on the problematic foot. If Quality Road’s connections felt their horse was sound and sent him to Louisville, I would have bet against him, simply because of the interruption in training. Everything has gone perfectly for Pioneerof the Nile: no interruptions in training due to bad weather or nagging injuries, and he is coming up to this race in the best form of his career. The Empire Maker colt has done everything asked of him, and I doubt trainer Bob Baffert would trade places with anybody.

2-I Want Revenge. It’s the horse, stupid. I’m no fan of trainer Jeff Mullins or the IEAH partners that bought into this son of Stephen Got Even, but I do like I Want Revenge. How can you not like a horse that does what he did to win the Wood Memorial after a disastrous start? The race before that, the Gotham Stakes, he showed enough early speed to press the pace and draw off in the stretch to a an easy victory. He is 0-for-2 against Pioneerof the Nile, though his first loss, by a nose in the Cash Call Futurity, was in his first start after breaking his maiden. I think he’ll be the betting favorite, but if Pioneerof the Nile beats I Want Revenge, people will be scratching their heads and wondering why.

3-Dunkirk. Todd Pletcher has kept the son of Unbridled’s Song under the radar, staying in Florida to train while the rest of the field is in Kentucky, and I don’t fault his logic that the track on Derby Day will likely be different from the surface everyone trained on in the weeks leading up to the race. Always seems to be that way. The colt has enormous talent, but there remains that issue of a lack of experience that has stopped many previous Derby contenders with a similar profile.

4-Friesan Fire.  One thing we know: if it rains as expected, and the track is sloppy, Friesan Fire will be one happy horse. The A.P. Indy colt seemed to relish the sloppy Fair Grounds surface while winning the Louisiana Derby in a cakewalk. His training up to the race for Larry Jones has been sensational, and the only thing his resume lacks is a victory over tough competition.

5-Musket Man. Beating Giant Oak in the Illinois Derby was no great accomplishment (doesn’t somebody always beat Giant Oak?), but it’s hard to fault a horse with five wins in six starts. Yonaguska colt seems like the grinder type—not much early speed or quick mid-race acceleration—but if he gets a good enough trip under Eibar Coa I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in the top flight at the eighth pole.

6-Papa Clem. Won the Arkansas Derby coming from off the pace, but Smart Strike colt has enough speed to be close up in the early going and maybe even make the lead if no one else wants it. Gary Stute learned from his father, Mel, the West Coast wizard of speed, so a late-week blowout of two or three furlongs might be used to sharpen up Papa Clem after a series of longer works.

7-Chocolate Candy. Has only one way of going, settle in near the back of the field and make a late run, so you know that racing luck will play a role for Candy Ride colt. Hollendorfer has won the Kentucky Oaks twice (Lite Light in 1991 and Pike Place Dancer in1996), proving he can win at the top level of the game while being based in California’s “B  Circuit” in the Bay Area. Training well, but has to have everything go his way for a victory.

8-Advice. Wise guys are asking how a horse that couldn’t win the Sunland Park Derby is going to win the Kentucky Derby.  Real Quiet, who came within a nose of winning the 1998 Triple Crown, couldn’t win in New Mexico, either, finishing third there as a 2-year-old in a pair of races. Advice demonstrated some quality last year, finishing second but DQed and placed third in the Arlington-Washington Futurity, and his last to first rally in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes was eye-catching. But races were on Polytrack, however, and he has yet to prove himself on a conventional dirt track (though the same can be said of Pioneerof the Nile).

9-Desert Party. I like the way the son of Street Cry has trained since arriving from Dubai, but I’ve seen previous Godolphin horses looking sharp in the morning before fading on Derby afternoon. If this one is any different, he’ll win without my backing at the windows.

10-Mr. Hot Stuff. Have always thought this Tiznow colt was going to develop into a good one, but it’s taken longer than expected. He’ll be running late in the Derby, but I think he looks more like a Travers winner.

Last weekend was the final opportunity for Derby hopefuls to make their case. As a result, this week’s Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment had two new entries with Square Eddie in a tie for 15th and Advice all alone in the 18th spot. The only other newbie on our list was a vote for Arkansas Derby 3rd place finisher Summer Bird.

Also significant was the tightening between the first and second place contenders I Want Revenge and Quality Road. This narrowing margin is due to Quality Road’s quarter crack not being as concerning as once believed.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. This was written before his first serious workout on the Churchill Downs surface, but I’m sticking with the Empire Maker colt unless and until he shows a complete disdain for dirt in his training up to the Kentucky Derby. Keeping Garrett Gomez in the saddle is a confidence booster because agent Ron Anderson is as sharp as they come.

2-I Want Revenge. Biggest question about Stephen Got Even colt’s two New York wins was who he beat. Not sure there was much quality behind him, but he was right there with Pioneerof the Nile in California and showed he likes the dirt. Versatile running style really a plus and jockey Joe Talamo is wise beyond his years.

3- Quality Road. Mystery horse as far as I’m concerned, because of the quarter crack. But based on that last New York workout and the fact the son of Elusive Quality apparently came out of it in good shape I’ve moved him up a notch over Dunkirk. Will he get the distance?

4-Dunkirk. Could there be a better backup rider to Garrett Gomez than Edgar Prado? No loss there in riding talent. Choice by Gomez and agent Anderson was a tough one, considering they were dealing with two high-powered trainers in Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher and two of the most prominent owners in the game in Ahmed Zayat and the Coolmore operation. Call me old school, but I think the lack of racing experience will go against both Quality Road and Dunkirk.

5-Friesan Fire. Larry Jones seems to have had a pretty well-defined plan for son of A.P. Indy and he’s sticking to it. Another one racing against history with his lengthy gap between races. Working solidly at Keeneland before shipping to Churchill Downs for final preparations.

6-Musket Man. Tampa Bay and Illinois Derby winner got vote of confidence from jockey Eibar Coa, but he’ll be facing a completely different caliber of horse when the Churchill Downs starting gates open.

7-Papa Clem. Smart Strike seems to keep siring one top runner after another, and Papa Clem is moving in the right direction as the first Saturday in May approaches. Gary Stute may be a Kentucky Derby rookie, but he’s no greenhorn, having gotten some big race experience when father Mel had Preakness winner Snow Chief and other top runners during a stellar training career.

8-Chocolate Candy. Interesting that a Santa Anita publicity staff survey of West Coast horsemen found a lot of support for this Candy Ride colt trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. Will have a lot of horses to come around at the top of the stretch when he makes his late run.

9-Advice. So what if his Coolmore Lexington win was on a Polytrack surface that has produced so many unpredictable results? He’s an improving colt in good hands who closed like gangbusters to beat a Polytrack-loving Square Eddie.

10-Desert Party. How he trains over the next 10 days will have a lot to say about his chances. It’s a very difficult transition to make, coming from Dubai to Kentucky, and will take a top horse to handle it. I just don’t think he’ll be up to the challenge.