Posts Tagged ‘Florida Derby’

WEEKEND STAKES: WHERE TO WATCH brought to you by KBC Horse Supplies

Friday, March 19th, 2010

On Saturday, Gulfstream Park will host its signature day of the winter/spring meet by presenting five graded stakes on the 12-race program, highlighted by the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Trainer Todd Pletcher’s Rule heads up a field of 11 in the Florida Derby. The son of Roman Ruler brings a 4-race win streak into this 1 1/8-mile contest in which it will be the first time he has gone beyond 1 1/16 miles. The only other entrant with enough stakes earnings to make it into the Kentucky Derby field is Radiohead, trained by Rick Dutrow.

The graded stakes action begins in the 7th race with the running of the 1 1/8-mile Bonnie Miss, a G2 for 3-year-old fillies on the dirt. The small but very contentious field has attracted Amen Hallelujah, who comes off a winning performance in the G2 Davona Dale, rolling home by 6 ¼ lengths. The highly-regarded Christine Daae steps up into stakes company after an allowance win.

The Bonnie Miss is followed by the G3 Rampart, then the G3 Appleton. The Swale, a G2 seven-furlong sprint for 3-year-olds precedes the Florida Derby. In the Rampart, it’s hard to see past Unrivaled Belle; she had three consecutive wins last year on dirt and in her most recent outing, she took on stiffer competition in the G2 La Canada at Santa Anita where she finished fourth on the synthetic surface. Others to watch in this 1 1/8-mile contest are a pair from the Marty Wolfson barn, Miss Singhsix and Champagne Eyes.

KEEP

The Appleton has a field of nine older horses going postward on the turf at 7 ½ furlongs. Kiss the Kid, at 5-2, is the slight morning-line favorite over Rahy’s Attorney who is 3-1. Rick Dutrow has D’Funnybone in the Swale; the highweight under Edgar Prado, he will be the one to beat, coming off an impressive winning effort in the G2 Hutcheson last month.

Graded stakes presented at Santa Anita this weekend will be Saturday’s 1 ½-mile marathon G2 San Luis Rey for 4-year-olds and up, and on Sunday, the Santa Ana (G3) for older fillies going 1 1/8 miles. Both events are on the turf. Neil Drysdale could have a big weekend with Bourbon Bay in San Luis Rey and Cat by the Tale in the Santa Ana. San Luis Obispo (G2) winner Bourbon Bay faces a field of ten, including Unusual Suspect and Sudden War, second and third in the San Luis Obispo. Tuscan Evening will be favored in the Santa Ana, and indeed, she has beaten Cat by the Tale twice at a flat mile, but perhaps the tables will be turned at the longer distance.

New York has been hit especially hard by adverse weather conditions during this Aqueduct meet. Last week’s G3 Cicada was rescheduled for this week and will hopefully go off without a hitch. Bickersons, the only graded stakes winner in the race is the 7-5 favorite. She won the G2 Forward Gal, and followed that up with a fourth-place finish in the G2 Davona Dale, where she was beaten by the red hot Amen Hallelujah.

MARCH FOOLS

Thursday, March 18th, 2010

By Ray Paulick
 What’s that old expression often repeated in the legal world: He who represents himself has a fool for a client? I think a similar statement can be said of some horse owners: He who makes decisions on where and when his horses should run has a fool for a trainer.

That phrase came to mind, not once, but twice this week when the owners of two of America’s highest-profile Thoroughbreds, Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra and early Kentucky Derby favorite Eskendereya, made the type of decisions that are better left to their trainers. And the real trainers of these two horses, Steve Asmussen and Todd Pletcher, respectively, are anything but fools. Both are locks to someday be inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame.

Jess Jackson struck first when he issued a press release Sunday declaring Rachel Alexandra out of the April 9 Apple Blossom Invitational at Oaklawn Park, less than 24 hours after she was defeated in the New Orleans Ladies at Fair Grounds.

“Yesterday’s race while a disappointment, helped us define Rachel Alexandra’s racing condition,” Jackson said. “While she is healthy, just as I had anticipated, she is not in top form. Therefore, I decided today she will not be going to the Oaklawn Invitational on April 9. Steve and I discussed this fully and we now regret we tried to accelerate her training in order meet the Apple Blossom schedule. We have a whole season before us to help define her greatness. She will tell us when her next race will be.”

The key phrase in the above paragraph is “Therefore, I decided…”

Only a few hours earlier, the Fair Grounds media office sent out the following comments from Asmussen, a two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer: “We don’t have any negative indications yet today. Like anything, you want to be 100% and if you’re not you go from there. We don’t have any negative this morning other than the loss and the hurt feelings of yesterday. Our main concern is how Rachel feels and her well-being and we’re very pleased with her today.”

Two days later, Ahmed Zayat made a decision to pull his Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth winner Eskendereya from an intended start in this Saturday’s Florida Derby and have Pletcher instead send him to Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial on April 3.

“The main issue is timing,” Zayat was quoted in Daily Racing Form as saying. “I’m not really comfortable off the six weeks (the gap between the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby). If I’m genuine about the Kentucky Derby, I need to give the prep I want to make sure he peaks on the right day.”

Zayat, who has been sued by Fifth Third Bank over alleged delinquency on a $34-million loan and has put his racing stable in Chapter 11 bankruptcy, like Jackson has owned racehorses for only a few years. Apparently, he thinks he knows more about training a Thoroughbred than Pletcher, a four-time Eclipse Award winner.

Earlier in the week, Pletcher was quoted in the Miami Herald saying he thought six weeks between starts was just right for Eskendereya. “He won an allowance (at Gulfstream) six weeks out from the Fountain of Youth,” Pletcher said. “So, six weeks seems like good spacing for him.”

Cynics may be thinking Jackson and Zayat–two owners with immodestly sized egos—might be fibbing about their decisions. In the case of Jackson, the real reason to skip the Apple Blossom could be based more on the winning performance by unbeaten champion Zenyatta at Santa Anita the same afternoon Rachel Alexandra lost. He can’t be blamed for wanting no part of Zenyatta at Oaklawn, and for that I say he’s nobody’s fool.

Zayat’s reason could be entirely different. The beleaguered owner has been entertaining offers to sell all or part of Eskendereya to help satisfy his loan obligations, and it’s possible he wants to finalize a deal before the son of Giant’s Causeway makes his next start.

I hope that’s the case. If Zayat thinks he can train a horse better than Pletcher, he really is a fool.

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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GOOD NEWS FRIDAY sponsored by Liberation Farm: TV RATINGS ARE UP, IS RACING?

Friday, May 22nd, 2009


Do you know an individual or organization who you think we should consider for an upcoming “Good News Friday” feature? Then please e-mail
info@paulickreport.com with the name of the individual or organization and a brief description of why you think they should be featured. Additionally, we’d like to thank Rob Whiteley and Liberation Farm for encouraging us to bring to light some of the industry’s positive stories and for sponsoring this exclusive Paulick Report feature.

By Bradford Cummings

Oftentimes, the racing industry loses sight of what is important when trying to market its product. Talk of increased handle, while necessary for the bottom line of racetracks, does not change the public perception and momentum of a sport that has continued a slow and steady slide over the last 20 years. In order to grow this sport, racing needs new fans, not old fans making more bets.
 
So when the ratings came out for the Kentucky Derby and most recently the Preakness Stakes, it was a breath of fresh air and a much-needed shot in the arm for the psyche of racing. The first two legs of the Triple Crown brought in an average of 13.4 million viewers, the most since 1989 when Sunday Silence won both Classics over Easy Goer in a spirited East vs. West rivalry.
 
Individually, the Kentucky Derby brought in 16.3 million viewers with a 9.8 rating and 23 share, up 2.1 million viewers from last year. The Preakness came in at a strong 10.9 million viewers, pulling a 6.8 rating and 16 share. This number was up 3 million viewers from last year’s version with Big Brown easily pulling away from the field.
 
For those not familiar with the television ratings system, the Derby’s 9.8 rating means that 9.8% of all households with televisions were tuned into NBC’s telecast on the first Saturday of May while the 23 share means 23% of all televisions in use watched Mine That Bird pull an unprecedented upset. That means nearly a quarter of all Americans watching television showed an interest in racing’s biggest event.
 
Perhaps most significant was the true lack of a compelling storyline going into the race. Most of the favorites had been sidelined before the Derby, and morning line favorite I Want Revenge was scratched the morning of the race with an injury, leaving what has been proved to be an overrated colt from the Louisiana circuit in Friesan Fire as the betting choice. And while other sports have the ability to build audience throughout the course of a 3 hour game, the fact that a 50-1 shot won the race would have had virtually no effect on the ratings because of how quickly the telecast ends.
 
Much credit must go to NBC, which did an admirable job selling the event throughout the week prior with promos on mainstream mainstays like the Today Show and investing in a solid marketing campaign. The fact a long shot won only added to the mystique of the Derby they so effectively sold.
 
That momentum allowed for the male vs. female storyline to be created with Rachel Alexandra and the unintended positive consequences of media coverage from Mark Allen and Ahmed Zayat’s conspiring to keep her on the sidelines. Proving the old adage there’s no such thing as bad press, the Preakness well out performed every other running this decade except for Smarty Jones in 2004, which brought a 7.7 rating and 23 share.
 
Of course, all of these numbers are irrelevant without some perspective and comparison to other top events in high profile professional U.S. sports. While the Kentucky Derby will not be in the same league as the Super Bowl anytime soon with its 42 rating, racing’s biggest day in 2009 stands incredibly strong with other major championship equivalents.
 
The final game of the NBA Championship from last year, in a matchup of the two most storied franchises in the league, drew only 12.6 million viewers.  The Stanley Cup Playoffs featuring the Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins never saw more than 6.8 million folks tune in to a game. The Daytona 500, the most prestigious race in NASCAR, was down this year to a modest 15.95 million television fans. Even America’s Pastime peaked with just 15.49 million at home spectators during last year’s final World Series game.

Something the ratings do not take into account is the large number of racing fans who watch and wager on events like the Triple Crown races and Breeders’ Cup at a local track or simulcast site. Kentucky Derby Day is the biggest day of the year at some tracks, and those in attendance are not counted as television viewers.

SPORTING EVENT VIEWERS (MILLIONS)
Super Bowl (Steelers vs. Cardinals) 95.4
2009 Kentucky Derby 16.3
Daytona 500 15.95
World Series Game 5 (Phillies vs. Rays) 15.49
NBA Championship Game 6 (Lakers vs. Celtics) 12.6
2009 Preakness Stakes 10.9
Stanley Cup Game 6 (Red Wings vs. Penguins) 6.8

This ranks the Kentucky Derby as the second most watched professional sporting championship of the last year, a fact few in the industry would have assumed. And the news is actually better than it looks. Wedged in at around 6 p.m. EST and potentially distracted by the dinner bell or an eventful Saturday, a viewer more likely schedules their day around the Derby coverage whereas a typical championship game appears during the primetime hours of 8-11 pm. That coupled with the lack of build up for the average racing fan as evidenced by the paltry ratings of preps like the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby, means racing has a legitimate opportunity to capture the imagination of the public if marketed correctly.
 
With drug issues and safety concerns being taken seriously, there will be an opening for racing to breeze through. Will we take the opening and shoot through like Mine That Bird’s last to first rally on May 2nd? Will we look at what we have and figure out how to sell this beautiful sport to the masses beyond the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes? Can we turn the Breeders’ Cup into a legitimate championship that builds from January on?
 
The good news is we can.

Liberation Farm celebrates the many horsemen and horsewomen who strive each day to make things better for horses and those who work with them.  To learn more about Liberation Farm, click here.

Previous Good News Friday subjects: Father Chris ClayThe Race for Education, Military Appreciation Day at Keeneland, Kentucky Oaks Pink Out for the Susan G. Komen Foundation, Mary Lee-Butte and the Blue Grass Farms Chaplaincy, Mary Jo Pons and the Radio Reading Network

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

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EDWIN ANTHONY’S PEDIGREE REPORT: DUNKIRK

Wednesday, April 1st, 2009
This is the fourth in a series of articles written by Edwin Anthony examining the pedigrees of leading contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby. Previously, he looked at Louisiana Derby winner Friesan Fire, Florida Derby winner Quality Road, and Pioneerof the Nile, who goes for his fourth straight win in this Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby.

This week, Anthony examines the bloodlines of Dunkirk, who ran second behind Quality Road in last Saturday’s Florida Derby in just his third career start. Anthony, who spent six years as the staff pedigree consultant for Three Chimneys Farm and has contributed to numerous publications, is the author of a newly published book, “The American Thoroughbred (Volume I).” Click here to learn more about the book. – Ray Paulick


By Edwin Anthony

DUNKIRK
(Unbridled’s Song — Secret Status, by A.P. Indy)
America has always been preoccupied with “winners,” so much so that an Olympic silver-medalist might be considered lucky to be welcomed home with a parade, much less expect to see his or her smiling face appear on the cover of a Wheaties box. It’s certainly the same story in racing Thoroughbreds, where a horse that runs a credible or even a close second in an important race is basically relegated to “also-ran” status. Racing historians know better this time of year.

Despite their G1 status, races like the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass, and other key races like the Arkansas Derby and Louisiana Derby are indeed PREP races for the Triple Crown. The history books are full of cases in which horses run a solid second in one of these races and either win the Derby or become the dominant horse in the Triple Crown altogether. You never know what tricks a canny and experienced trainer might have up their sleeves or how tightly wound their horses are for these races. One should never mistake the fact that their eyes are focused intently on the prizes that await in May and June, with training schedules and races planned months in advance to arrive in peak form the week of the Kentucky Derby.

Secretariat had a piece of straw infecting his cheek, causing him to run a dull race in the Wood Memorial. Of course, he went on win the 1973 Triple Crown, setting a track record in each race. Thunder Gulch and Swale had been the best horses in Florida in their respective years, but each ran a terrible race at Keeneland and were somewhat discounted, although both went on to win the Kentucky Derby and Belmont and be named champion 3-year-old colt. Other horses like Real Quiet (second, Santa Anita Derby), Funny Cide (second, Wood Memorial), Go for Gin (second, Wood Memorial), and Silver Charm (second, Santa Anita Derby), didn’t really need an excuse. These entrants had run very respectable prep races and perhaps didn’t have the right pace scenario or weren’t quite fit enough to get the job done on the day in question. But they did prove to be the best horses when experience mattered and the distance questions asked became a true test of stamina.

Each horse we discuss in this column certainly has its strengths and weaknesses. Any vulnerability is likely to be exposed in a big field, where horses are certain to get bumped, checked, or cut off. And if a horse is speedy enough to draw clear of the melee of runners traveling with the pack and run with the pacemakers, they are not likely to have a relaxing time “on the engine,” either. The ideal horse for the classics has some tactical ability and is not bothered by the roaring crowds or the excitement of running through a rain-shower of dirt clods. In fact, all that is really required, assuming they have the quality to get the job done, is for them to run their “A” race. Most horses simply can’t handle the competitive nature of the occasion or don’t get the distance. In the end, it’s the horses that are able to simply maintain a steady, forward momentum that win the day. In Europe, the best classic horses are called “stayers,” as they gallop at a continuous clip to the wire, outlasting their peers.

Most fans are used to seeing their favorite 3-year-olds display visually-impressive, explosive moves to win prep races and expect to see similar efforts in the Triple Crown races. That is a bit like comparing a 440-yard dash at a track meet to perhaps an 880-yard race. A half-mile race (880-yards) for humans is an exhausting event, as it is too short of a race to settle into a relaxing pace and too long for true sprinters to maintain their unrelenting pace. It is the same with horses, where equine athletes built to go six to nine furlongs simply can’t stretch their abilities effectively beyond that distance. Their muscle structure and physical limitations simply won’t allow them to.

On the other end of the spectrum, you have horses like DUNKIRK (click here for his pedigree), who are bred to excel at classic distances. Their form is supposed to improve as the distances get longer, as they don’t really lengthen their stride until the first mile of a race has already been run. Many fans have difficultly envisioning the running of a classic race unfolding, expecting to see a re-run of what happened in the prep races. The factors that they discount in the process are numerous: 1) Horses become more fit and can be expected to deliver improved efforts/peak performance in the races that their trainers have been pointing for; 2) The distances have increased substantially, changing the landscape and tactics of the challenge at hand; 3) The best horses from each region of the country and even other countries are meeting to decide who the best horses are — many horses are simply outclassed at this level; 4) Horses with no dirt track experience or that don’t show an affinity for the track in question (Churchill, Pimlico, Belmont) are at a distinct disadvantage, etc.

There is little doubt that Dunkirk should be able to get the 1 ¼ miles of the Kentucky Derby. I’ve never been a particularly big fan of his sire, Unbridled’s Song, as his progeny are brilliant but not particularly sound animals—and a horse needs to be sound to carry the weight and get the distance in the Triple Crown events. Despite public opinion (especially at the yearling sales), I don’t think that Unbridled’s Song has really proven to be a good source of classic runners. While he is a son of Unbridled (an undeniable classic influence), the best runners by Unbridled’s Song have prospered more in the mile to 1 1/8-mile (nine-furlong) range. Perhaps his better runners simply don’t hang around long enough to run in the classic races, but the proof is in the results, or lack of results.

Dunkirk did not race at 2, and that is a piece of history that he would have to make if he were to win the Derby. As things stand, he may not even have enough graded stakes earnings to make it into the starting gate, although I think that might be a shame, as he looks to have the class and stamina, if not the experience, to have an impact on the classics.

Dunkirk’s dam, Secret Status, won the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Mother Goose (G1), both of which are considered filly classics. Since she also placed in both the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1, third) and Alabama (G1, second), there seems little doubt that she was the best “staying” filly of her crop in America. Secret Status is a daughter of A.P. Indy, who was not only able to stay the distance (Belmont/Breeders’ Cup Classic winner) but has been a consistent sire of classic-distance runners. Likewise, the dam of Secret Status was sired by the tremendous classic influence Alydar — sire of Kentucky Derby winners Alysheba and Strike the Gold, as well as Belmont winner Easy Goer. Alydar’s name is also found in the pedigrees of Preakness/Belmont winner Point Given, filly classic winners Lakeway (Mother Goose) and Ajina (Coaching Club American Oaks, Mother Goose), Travers (G1) winner Colonel John and Alabama (G1) winner November Snow.

The Mr. Prospector/Alydar combination found in the pedigree of Dunkirk is also seen in the lineage of Point Given (Horse of the Year), Anees (champion 2-year-old colt), Pine Island (Alabama), and at least 10 other G1 winners. I am also a big advocate of combining the similarly-bred stallions Unbridled and Quiet American with Seattle Slew and his son A.P. Indy in pedigrees. Examples of this combination include Bernardini (Preakness, champion 3-year-old colt), Midshipman (champion 2-year-old colt), Country Star (G1), First Defence (G1), Sky Diva (G1), and Tapit (G1, sire of G1 winners).

With two impressive wins at Gulfstream and a very solid second in the Florida Derby (G1) to his credit, I believe that Dunkirk has the class to impact the running of this year’s Triple Crown races. I also believe the distance of those races should be well within his scope. But the lack of experience and lack of demonstrated soundness we see in his three past performances makes one wonder if he’s the super-horse that Big Brown nearly proved to be last year (coming into the Derby off of only three starts). The fact that Dunkirk’s mother was a classic winner by A.P. Indy with a dam by Alydar may be enough to stack the cards in his favor. Let’s hope for entertainment’s sake (and that of the sport) that he’s a late bloomer, with the ability to substantiate his $3.7 million price tag and prove Unbridled’s Song to be a classic sire after all. We don’t need horses like Dunkirk standing on the sidelines.

Edwin Anthony was the staff pedigree consultant at Three Chimneys Farm for six years and has penned dozens of articles on pedigree research. He recently authored the reference book, The American Thoroughbred (Volume I). Click here to learn more and order your copy today

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

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WANT TO SELL RACEDAY TO SPORTS FANS? LOOK TO DUBAI

Monday, March 30th, 2009

By Brad Cummings

Since the inception of the Paulick Report, I have stayed under the radar. Outside of the Eclipse Awards live blog and a few small ghostwriting opportunities, I have been the behind the scenes guy on a publication I am very proud to be associated with.
 
And this is for good reason. Before mid-June 2008, I was like most Americans when it came to horseracing. Somewhere around the last two weeks in April, I would jump onto ESPN.com and pretend to be an expert analyst when discussing the Derby field around “the water cooler.” (I’ve worked for myself for a while and therefore only have Brita filter, so please allow for the stretched euphemism)
 
After countless minutes of exhaustive research, I would find my “guy” and throw $20 his way. Win or lose, I would tune into the Preakness and plan on the Belmont Stakes if there was a Triple Crown shot. By the beginning of June, my racing season was ostensibly over.
 
I tell you this because after nearly a year on the Paulick Report staff, I have become a serious fan of racing. And furthermore, I believe it can be effectively sold to the average sports fan. It’s a more fascinating and exciting sport than I’d ever realized. And the really cool thing is you can bet on it – legally.
 
I’m a hardcore baseball fan whose prized possession of his childhood is a signed Carlton Fisk Louisville Slugger. Each year, I watch nearly every University of Louisville basketball game; from their home opener against North Minnesota State A & M to their final encounter in the tournament.  And I am such an avid football fan that I traveled to Chicago to watch my Bears beat the Packers in -20 degree weather.
 
Unfortunately, the only reason I fell in love with this sport is because of my work here. Had I not been hired by Ray and found myself in a racing crash course, it’s unlikely I would have ever been a fan beyond the first Saturday in May.
 
I grew up in a major racing city, Chicago, and have lived in Derby Town U.S.A., for several years. The fact I had not been lured by a sport with so much to offer means there is a failure in selling the game to a passionate sports fan. Until Saturday, I wasn’t quite sure the path to redemption. But when I watched the stark contrast between our television production values and those in Dubai, I knew at least where we needed to start.
 
ESPN’s coverage of the Florida Derby was dry and appeared to have little time or money spent on the production value. It felt more like the third day of an average PGA tournament than a major Derby prep race. If I didn’t know better, I would have little concept of just how big the stakes (pun intended) were that day for the horses running at Gulfstream Park.
 
Television is a visual medium and therefore production value wins the day. When CBS produces the March Madness basketball tournament, they don’t make a sweeping shot over the court and deliver a distant camera angle like racing likes to do. Instead, they pop you in the mouth with exciting clips, exploding graphics and camera angles that put the viewer right at courtside. After the first five minutes of a broadcast, my heart is pumping and I’m so hooked I don’t even notice Ray calling me for the eighth time that day.
 
Before watching the Dubai World Cup’s live feed on Saturday, I would have just assumed Thoroughbred racing had a brother in hockey, a sport that simply loses something on TV. But as I continued to watch the Dubai coverage, with its emotional build and track view camera, a similar feeling came over my body. It was a new sense of March madness, one I hadn’t ever expected.
 
Guys like me want to find new sports to obsess over. We love the thrill of competition and thirst for new outlets to find that action. And a lot of us like to bet. Deliver us visual fireworks, place us on the field of play and get our hearts racing. Once we’re hooked, we will be customers for life. The sports fan is an obsessive creature and before too long, we’ll find ourselves watching midnight replays of claiming races at Ruidoso Downs on TVG. (I speak from experience)
 
But the Paulick business model probably won’t transfer. You can’t hire all of your potential fans.

LIVE BLOGGING DUBAI AND FLORIDA DERBY

Saturday, March 28th, 2009

With Ray traveling abroad this weekend, we are happy to have The Saratogian’s Brendan O’Meara filling Paulick’s shoes for the Dubai and Florida Derby preps. If you would like to read more from Brendan, please visit his blog here.

BRENDAN O’MEARA’S LIVE BLOG

10:00…I’ve been fortunate enough to have been invited by Mr. Paulick to be a guest blogger for the Paulick Report for the Group 1 races in Dubai and the Florida Derby.

For those who do not know, I cover horse racing for The Saratogian newspaper in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.  My column appears every Thursday and I blog routinely at The Carryover.

I am honored to have been invited to this platform to bring my brand of horse racing commentary to another audience.  It is my hope that you will find this, at the very least, moderately entertaining.  And maybe, with a little luck, simply entertaining.

 

10:19 … Friends, horseman, countryman, lend me your ears.  A little Shakespeare to wake you up. 
That rat Regal Ransom!  That was impressive.  Could it have been that the all-too-cocky Dettori was too confident aboard Desert Party?  The world may never know.
I’ve got to say.  The foot room and elbow room here at the Paulick Report is like flying first class.  The Saratogian, by comparison, is like coach.  Mr. Paulick has said, in not so many words, that I may put my feet up on the coffee table, but I’ll respect the place and leave that for beverages and racing forms.  The fridge is stocked and the nachos are under the broiler. 
This, this is nice.

10:23 … Today’s handicapping experiment revolves around Thorograph’s sheets.  Jerry Brown and Co. put up the sheets for the entire Dubai card, so naturally being on a shoe string budget by virtue of being a writer, I jumped on them.  Mind you, I’m familiar with them, but cannot pretend to be any good with them. 
They did help me hit the Godolphin Mile exacta with Two Step Salsa and Gayego.  That’s a 9-5 and a 2-1, baby.  Chalk eating weasel’s unite. 
As I’ve always said, you have to adhere to the ABC’s of handicapping:  Always Be Cashin’. 

 10:30 … Now comes the first Group 1, the Golden Shaheen, run at six furlongs.  This race, run at Nad al Sheba, is the equivalent to the 50 yard dash.  This is the lone 0 turn race that I can think of.  It’s just a straight shot down the middle and the favorite is Indian Blessing at 3-5 breaking from the far outside.  She is one fine piece of tail. 
Interesting note, John Velazquez, her regular rider, decided to stay in Florida to ride Quality Road in the Florida Derby.  Slacker.  So Edgar Prado gets a chance to repeat in this race since he won it a year ago aboard the late-charging Benny the Bull.
If Indian Blessing wins, she will be the Batman of horses.

10:43 … Love that camera angle along the rail at Dubai.  It’s the only angle that gives you an idea of just how fast these horses are moving. 
Get to the windows!  I’ve got a tri key with IB on top and Big City Man, Diabolical, and Marchand d’Or underneath.  What does this mean?  The answer, of course, is nothing. 

10:57 … Looks like Indian Blessing is not Batman.  A tribute to the sheets … I had the three horses just not in the right order.  So it goes.  She had a clear shot at it but was simply beat by Big City Man.  Take a bow, tip your cap, IB got beat.  Diabolical took third meaning that Frankie Dettori has finished first, second and third in his first three races.  Now there’s a tri you can sink your bank into.

11:12 … In looking at the G1 Duty Free, we’ve got 16 horses, led by favorite Archipenko at 5-2.  There’s a whole lotta loot to win here.  We’ve got Kip Deville, trained by the Teddy bear-snuggly Richard Dutrow, Jr.  and owned by IEAH.  It’ll be interesting to see who can come out of the traffic turning for home.  No doubt this will be a jockey race.

11:17 … Have you seen the photos of the Dubai skyline?  There’s a building that is going up that looks like a needle, a flagship building of an oil-laden Emerald City.  Would Sheik Mohammed then be considered the Wizard of Oz?  Quite possibly.  Man, I wish he was wearing his top hat.  He looked like Mr. Peanut only way, way cooler. 

11:26 … In reaction to the comments as to why there is so much time between races, I think this is so that we can think about our horrible, horrible decisions in not just betting but in life.  Shoot … 26 minutes to think about why I’m eating garden salsa Sun Chips at 11:30 in the morning.  
Man, these oil barons think of everything.

11:30 … I don’t know if any of you can hear the music they are playing at Dubai.  It’s a lot like the Gladiator theme, Sheik Mohammed not only the Wizard of Oz, but a mighty Caesar.  It makes you feel unbeatable.  "Are you not entertained!?!" 
Speaking of … my $1 exacta ticket looks as follows:  Hyberbaric, Kip Deville, Alexandros, and Charlie Farnsbarns.  And you can put it on the booooarrrrd, yes!
Uh, oh.  Thumbs down????  I gotta go.

11:37 … But the Sheiks can do as they please as they have set up mosquitoes around the desert that stick their proboscises into the dirt and suck the blood out of the earth.  This, of course, being oil.  This oil being the dead plant and animal matter of yester-era.  And has anyone said thank you to the dead plant and animal matter?  I somehow doubt it.  But because of those mosquitoes, we have Nad al Sheeba and will soon have the multi-billion Meydan facility.  To inaugerate the new World Cup, the purse will be bumped to $10 million. 
Take THAT Prix de l’Arc de Triumph.

11:49 … Meydan is word that has multiple definitions.  It means where people congregate and go to the races.  This is unnerving.  Isn’t this what happens in 1984?  Where words get whittled down to mean multiple things so that, in the end, there will only be one word to express every feeling or emotion?  Do you see what’s happening here?
Hey, 2 minutes to post for the $5 million Duty Free.

11:55 … What? 

11:57 … Awesome.  Now we get to wait another hour and relive that terrible, terrible race. 
Gladiatorus … if that’s not a coincidence, I don’t know what is, having just spoken about Gladiator a few posts ago.  From now on, if I riff on a movie and there is a horse that just so happens to share anything in common with said movie, I’m going all in. 
Man, he sure got loose on that lead. 
"Are we not entertained?!!" 
No, absolutely not.  Please leave me alone.

12:01 … On the OTB channel, I just saw the infield of Aqueduct.  Just when I thought that place could not get any uglier, it comes in on the heels of Nad al Sheba.  The turf in Dubai looks like fresh hydroseeding while the turf at the Big A looks like a field after a wheat harvest … even corn.
Fortunately there is only 35 minutes to post for the Dubai Sheema Classic at 12 furlongs. 

12:10 … In looking at Gladiatorus’ sheet, he definitely had the numbers to run the way he did.  Oddly enough I had him circled as a horse that could show up here (sarcastic slow clap … we’re all rrrealll impressed).  Doesn’t lone speed kill?  What I don’t like about the sheets is that you don’t get fractions.  I guess Mr. Brown wants you to buy his race shapes which ball park the way the race should play out with a little sideways bar graph for the opening quarter mile. 
In the PP’s, there were several horses that said "on lead, or went to lead" but that is all relative.  There are horses at Beulah who go to the lead.  They have to.  Even though they are belly out to go 26 and change.

12:16 … Thanks, Barbara for clarification on the oil and GDP.  That’s a spicy meatball. 

12:20 … 5% of my GDP gets me a candy bar at the vending machine … regular, not king size.

12:23 … So we’re 15 minutes to the Sheema Classic.  Fifteen horses.  Hot dog.  For those who care … and you do … I’ve got my $1 exacta box on Russian Sage (SAF), Youmzain (IRE), and Doctor Dino (FR).  That is the kiss of death (not actual death) for these horses and I sincerely apologize for walking to the window confident on their behalf. 

12:34 … If I can’t hit this race, it’s time to find a new hobby.  Oh, I don’t know.  Dirty limericks?

12:39 … OTB channel won’t show the Sheema.  I guess Eric Donovan and Andy Serling are more important.  Nothing against their trips and traps, but this is Dubai people!  Get your head out of your @$$.

12:44 … Whoa.  Just saw the replay.  Spanish Moon?  Purple Moon?
Goodnight, moon.  Goodnight, moon.  Goodnight, cow, jumping, ova da moon.
I’ve got a moon, let me tell ya.

12:46 … So dirty limericks it is.  "There once was a man named Enis."  Oh I can’t tell that one.

12:47 … We’re getting down to it now.  The big dance, headlined by the overwhelming winner of the Pennsylvania Derby, Anak Nakal.  Wait, no.  Headlined by the rousing winner of the Belmont Stakes, Casino Drive.  Wait, he scratched the morning of the Belmont.  Headlined by Asiatic Boy and Well Armed who wee Curlin’s wedding party last year.  That’s more like it.

12:50 … In my opinion, Curlin’s most powerful and impressive race was his Dubai World Cup a year ago.  I honestly get chills watching Robby Albarado give Curlin some slack and then watch Curlin take it all up.  His stride never looked longer than it did then.  Sure he went on to do some nice things the rest of the year to win the Woodward, Stephen Foster and the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but was there ever a race on his resume more dominant — given the field — than this one?
He was never as explosive, however, after he came back from Dubai, like he was during the 2007 BC Classic or in Dubai.  He had to grind out every win whether it was Past the Point or Wanderin’ Boy.  Still, he gave us one helluva run and I will love that damn chestnut for it.

12:57 … Sorry about that.  Curlin gets me all misty.  Maybe I should lift some weights and eat a rare steak.  Couple problems here.  No weights and I’m a vegetarian.  I’ll do some pushups and have some carrots and hummus.
Hey, I don’t eat animals.  I just bet on them.

1:01 … Interesting conversation I just had with Good Ol’ Pete, my handicapping buddy. First he asked:
"Who do you like in the World Cup?"
"I like Arson Squad, Snaafy, Asiatic Boy, and Casino Drive."
"You mean you’ve been referencing Gladiator and you don’t have Albertus Maximus?"
"Oh no!"

1:05 … About Albertus Maximus, I heard that trainer Kiaran McLaughlin likes him, but doesn’t like him, like him.  He said he wasn’t nearly as good as Invasor, who won this race in 2007.  Then again, McLaughlin comes from the Pletcher School of Cardboard and could really high on him, but is playing it off.

1:10 … Good Ol’ Pete once said, "There’s no way that Smarty Jones will win the Kentucky Derby.  I’ve never been more sure of anything in my life."
Two weeks later he said, "There’s no way that Smarty Jones will win the Preakness.  I’ve never been more sure of anything in my life."

1:14 … This truly is a world race.  There are horses from Ireland, USA, Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa all in line the machine for this.  Rarely can we say that a winner is world champion, except every four years … or if you buy into that our baseball, basketball, football and hockey teams are "World Champs." 
Now whar’s me racing form?

1:23 … Five minutes to post, it’s the final countdown! Doo do doooo do! Do do do do doooo! Do do do doooo, do do do do do do dooooo!  (synthesizer sounds).
C’mon, you know the words.

1:32 … They’re not showing this thing live.  So, angry.

1:37 … Saw the replay … still angry.
Well Armed, huh?  Didn’t see that one coming.  Hmm.  Well, it looks like I need a new hobby.  Who’s with me?  Anyone?  Anyone? 
My, my, that was Curlinesque, wasn’t it?  Then Gloria de Campeao and Paris Perfect.  I have lost all faith in Nad al Sheba.  Burn it to the ground.  Bring on Meydan so we can congregate at the races.
Sorry, I can be so rude when I’m sober.

1:43 … Well, lasix free racing is done for today.  My confidence ever shattered, I hope this was, as previously advertised, moderately entertaining.  If you want more, I’ll be back at 4:00 to jam about the Florida Derby.  Will Dunkirk win and cement a spot in Kentucky?  Will Quality Road move forward ala Barbaro or Big Brown?  Will Ken McPeek get Theregoesjojo to the wire first?  All this and more, right here!

1:46 … The proverbial maid is coming through, vacuuming the potato chips off the floor here at the Paulick Report.  I’ve gotten grease all over the remote and raided the fridge, but Mr. Paulick is a gracious host and I fully expect there to be refreshments for me come Gulfstream.  If not, maybe I’ll put my feet up on the coffee table the next time.

4:45 … FLORIDA DERBY TIME.  In the words of Pink Floyd, "Is there anybody out there?  Just nod if you can hear me."

4:47 … It will be, to a point, redundant because I’m sure many of you know the narrative surrounding this year’s renewal of the Grade I Florida Derby.  1.  Is Dunkirk really DUNKIRK?  2. Will Quality Road move forward?  3. How good is Theregoesjojo?  They are the likely trifecta, but what will be the order?

4:49 … Trainer Todd Pletcher has ensured that there will be a swift pace for his $3.7 million horse.  This from a horse who is certainly not a deep, deep closer.  See Shake the Bank and Better Talk Now.  
Drawing Post 4 certainly will help Dunkirk get a good position just off the rail.  Garrett Gomez will be sure of that. 
The problem for these connections is that Quality Road will be just two posts down in the two hole.  Quality Road’s win in the Fasig Tipton Fountain of Youth was not nearly as taxing on his body — and it was shorter.  Dunkirk had a disastrous trip going into the clubhouse turn and ran an extra furlong.  Will he be rested enough?  Will he regress just enough to ensure that Quality Road is the winner?  My feeling is that Quality Road will win this race and Dunkirk’s next Grade I is going to be Maryland two weeks after the Derby.

4:56 … It’s almost time for the most under-appreciated voice at ESPN, Joe Tessitore, the most underrated completely bald man in sports in Randy Moss, and the most underrated bald man hanging onto his hair in Jerry Bailey. 
I kid, I kid.
God help me if Jeannine Edwards is joining them.  I’m deeply, deeply in love with her … between you and me.

5:01 … Europe scratched.  No rabbit for Dunkirk.  Interesting.

5:03 … Oh, there she is.  The wind in her air.  What a woman.

5:07 … Is there anybody better than Randy Moss on TV?  Is there anybody better than Jay Privman in print?  No.  No. 

5:10 … Watch out for Big Drama.

5:14 … Hot dog, we have a wiener!  Course record for Big Drama, covering seven furlongs in 1:20.88.   Inquiry!!!! Hold all tickets.

5:18 … If Robby Albarado were on Big Drama, Gomez will somehow win this race.  I still think Mambo in Seattle won the Travers.  I should probably get over that.  Big wins for WinStar.  Well Armed in Dubai, Colonel John in Travers.

5:20 … Oh, no!  big drama at Gulfstream.  This One’s For Phil gets put up.  Can’t really blame them.  Gomez gets ‘em again.

5:23 … I just found the hot tub here at the Paulick Report.  I can’t even get my paper to send me to the Kentucky Derby and there’s a hot tub here?  Good thing I brought my bathing suit. 

5:26 … No money down on this race.  I blew my bank roll on the Dubai card and am frustrated.  I’m down $46.  Looks like its cheerios and almond milk for a week.

5:29 … So, Alysheba died.  Best race call was Tom Durkin’s ‘86 Breeders’ Cup Classic between Alysheba and Ferdinand.  "The two Derby winners, HIT the wire together!" 
Epic.

5:36 … This is Quality Road’s race.  Call it a feeling.  More than a feeling, more like. 
Dunkirk 2-5?  That’s crazy talk.

5:40 … Dunkirk now 4-5.  Johnny V. here and not in Dubai.  What does that say?  Maybe he didn’t want to fly 20 hours across the world.  Anyway folks, I’m gonna watch a horse race.  I suggest you do it as well.  I’m going to turn on the jets to this thing.

5:46 … 1:47.7!  That’s some fast dirt. "If the track was going to be this fast I would have gone to Aqueduct," Todd Pletcher said.
Say what? Wow.  Those are some strong words.  Quality Road moves forward.  Dunkirk will likely go to Pimlico.  Theregoesjojo third.

5:50 … Any question as to why Pletcher scratched Europe with the way speed played today at Gulfstream?  Food for thought.

5:51 … So Quality Road is onto the Derby in five weeks for Jimmy Jerkens.  He showed a lot of grit and class, staring down Dunkirk before drawing away.
That’s what you like to see.  Good eye contact then the heartlessness to say, "I don’t like you and I look better in the winner’s circle than you."
How about Pletcher’s comments?  Burn.

 5:55 … All right folks, this is goodbye.  I’m going to towel off and turn in my key.  Ray, I’ll leave it under the rock. 
I want to thank all those who participated in this day-long discussion.  I had a blast.  I hope all of you found this fun as well.  To Mr. Ray Paulick, thanks for letting me fill in for the day.  Hopefully I lived up to the strong name and reputation that your site has established.  And remember, gambling is the greatest thing a man can do IF he’s good at it. Ciao!