Posts Tagged ‘fasig-tipton’

By Ray Paulick
I hate to rain on Equibase and the National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s bad news parade, but there was some good news in horse racing’s monthly economic indicators released on Thursday.

Average daily handle for the month of February increased by 4.80% in comparison to 2009 figures. Average daily purses were up by 4.29% in February. Year-to-date figures for average daily handle are virtually dead-even (down 0.14%), as is the number for average daily purses (plus 0.81%).

Those are signs, like the few glimmers of hope in the general economy, that our worst days may be behind us.

Why, then, did Equibase and NTRA only report the bad news, that gross wagering and purses were down double digits? The business figures compiled by Equibase make things look terribly bleak: gross handle down 13% in February and purses down 13.43% from 2010, and year-to-date figures down 12.51% and 11.67% in those respective categories.

They include the total number of racing days for February and for the year to date, which show drastic declines of 16.99% and 12.38%. We are not going to increase gross handle with we run nearly 17% fewer race days. Those gross numbers do not tell the complete picture, and an organization like the NTRA should be doing a better job of interpreting its own economic indicators.

The good news about February and handle comes on the heels of Fasig-Tipton’s successful sale of 2-year-olds in training at Calder race course in South Florida.

There has been severe weather this year in many parts of the country, reducing the number of race days because of cancellations. But some tracks are simply running fewer live dates, a trend that we’ll see more and more of going forward.

The days being dropped intentionally by racetracks are going to be weekdays when handle and purses are lower, so it’s logical to expect average daily numbers to increase when weekend cards represent 50% of the week’s action on a four-day racing week instead of 40% on a five-day week. Del Mar saw its average daily numbers increase last year when the Southern California track dropped its Monday programs.

So, part of this increase in average betting and purses for February is likely due to the loss of more weekday programs than weekends. The message here is that less can be more.

Call me a contrarian, since other publications focused on the negatives—the drop in gross purses and handle. However, I’m willing to take any scrap of good news I can find these days.

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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By Ray Paulick
Bradley Weisbord, recently named the finance and stallion manager for Ahmed Zayat’s financially troubled Zayat Stables, told the Paulick Report no deal has been struck to sell all or any portion of Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth winner Eskendereya, a leading candidate for this year’s Kentucky Derby.

“Mr. Zayat has said he is in this business to operate it as a business,” Weisbord said,. “and he is pursuing offers. There have been numerous parties involved interested in anything from 10% to 100% of the horse.”

Eskendereya won the Feb. 20 Fountain of Youth by 7 1/4 lengths, his third victory in five starts. The margin and ease of victory, combined with huge numbers from speed figure calculators, put the son of Giant’s Causeway at the top of many Kentucky Derby lists. He was a $250,000 Keeneland September yearling graduate, sold by Peter O’Callaghan’s Woods Edge Farm, where he was raised. Sanford Robertson bred him in Kentucky. Eskendereya is out of the Seattle Slew mare, Aldebaran Light,

One bloodstock agent who spoke with the Paulick Report on the condition of anonymity, said he made inquiries about Eskendereya with Zayat Stables associates and was told it would take more than $5 million for a half-interest in the colt. Weisbord wouldn’t confirm any prices being offered.

Zayat Stables was sued by Fifth Third bank for allegedly being delinquent on loans totaling $34 million, and the stable countersued the bank. Zayat Stables subsequently filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and is now being investigated by at least two racing commissions for possible ties Zayat had with convicted bookmakers Michael and Jeffrey Jelinsky, to whom he said he made loans totaling more than $600,000. According to sources, one of the Jelinsky brothers attended the 2008 Kentucky Derby post position draw in Louisville as Zayat’s guest.

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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The Paulick Report is pleased to once again offer the pedigree insights of Edwin Anthony in the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Ed has lifelong experience in the Thoroughbred industry, has practical experience planning matings for his family’s stable and formerly as a pedigree adviser to Three Chimneys Farm. His perspective is straightforward and refreshingly opinionated, and I advise anyone interested in Thoroughbred pedigrees to pick up a copy of his book, “The American Thoroughbred (Volume One)”—available for purchase here.

In this first of a series of articles, he looks at the pedigree of Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth winner Eskendereya. – Ray Paulick

ESKENDEREYA (Giant’s Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew)
By Edwin Anthony
I wrote a series of eight pedigree profiles for horses on the “Triple Crown trail” starting about this time last year, and recent Fountain of Youth (G2) winner Eskendereya will serve as the first horse in our series this season. It’s interesting to look back at the horses we profiled last year (Friesan Fire, Quality Road, Pioneerof the Nile, Dunkirk, I Want Revenge, Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy, Rachel Alexandra) to see how they fared.

Quality Road is obviously a top horse (he missed the Triple Crown with quarter cracks), while Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile were each able to place in one classic race, and I wrote a token piece about Rachel Alexandra because she looked like a very special filly, even though she had not won anything more than a G2 race at that stage.  Only a fortune teller could have predicted Rachel Alexandra’s Horse of the Year campaign after changing hands or the rapid ascension of Birdstone (sire of longshot classic winners Mine That Bird and Summer Bird) as a major classic influence.

Even though I have studied Thoroughbred pedigrees for going on 25 years, no one can get around the folly of bad luck, injuries in training, or the fact that many horses look dominant going nine furlongs (a mile-and-an-eighth) but simply aren’t up to the demanding task of running classic distances at a competitive speed.

That’s the mystery of stamina and genetics that we’re constantly trying to figure out.  Of course, even a horse that is capable of competing at classic distances still needs to put out the effort, and sometimes horses have off-days just like people.

If nothing else, we strive to learn about the strengths and limitations of the stallions and ancestors under discussion and hope to come out smarter on the other side.  At the very least, we want to learn what strategies are working in pedigrees, even if some of them aren’t up to the classic standard.  Who are the soundest horses, where is the stamina coming from, and what ancestors are best to inbreed to?  These are the answers we’re looking for.

Pedigree analysts (like myself) try to identify patterns in graded stakes results as a way of predicting the future.  Given that the Storm Cat line has been a poor source of classic winners, then you probably wouldn’t want to lean heavily on Storm Cat’s sons (or stallions out of Storm Cat mares) in your stallion recommendations for breeders that want to breed for the classics.  The Storm Cat line hasn’t had a winner of a Triple Crown race since Tabasco Cat in 1994, although Bluegrass Cat was second in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont, and Travers in 2006.  You should note that Bluegrass Cat is out of a mare by classic influence A.P. Indy and his dam is heavily inbred to the foundation mare La Troienne, including being from the Numbered Account (champion 2YO filly by Buckpasser) branch of that important family.

So, while the Storm Cat line is dominant in 2-year-old racing and in races contested at distances of 9 furlongs or shorter, it does not appear capable of producing classic types, unless there is a LOT of help on the dam side of the equation.  Of course, when you start to speak in these kinds of absolutes, a special horse can come along and provide us with the exception to the rule.

Storm Cat’s son Giant’s Causeway was a tough campaigner in Europe out of a good racemare by Rahy, with a second dam by English Derby winner and classic influence Roberto.  He was undeniably consistent and high class, winning a series of Group 1 races at more than a mile. In his final start, he gave classic distance specialist Tiznow a real run for his money in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, that being his only start on dirt.  So, Giant’s Causeway was sound, very fast, and capable of competing with top horses at the American classic distance of 10 furlongs (a mile-and-a-quarter).  This makes him an exception among sons of Storm Cat, as most of his sons that have found any measure of success at stud were much better at a mile or less and have passed on this penchant for speed among their progeny.

Giant’s Causeway has already sired Grade 1 winners in America over 10 furlongs like Heatseeker (Santa Anita Handicap), Frost Giant (Suburban), and Red Giant (NWR, Clement L. Hirsch Memorial Turf Championship), so you can see that if there is a son of Storm Cat capable of siring an American classic winner, then Giant’s Causeway is probably the one.

The runaway win by Eskendereya (by Giant’s Causeway) in the Fountain of Youth (G2) was more than visually impressive.  You could see that the horse really relished the opportunity to go two turns, and he is now 3 for 3 on the dirt, his only losses coming in his first start (a maiden event on turf at Saratoga) and a poor effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), contested over the synthetic surface at Santa Anita.  He was reported to have a troubled trip in that race as well.

I have often thought that a true classic type horse is able to simply get into a steady gallop and carve out “12’s,” which is to say that he can consistently complete each furlong of a race in 12 seconds.  It becomes increasingly difficult to do with each furlong, as the muscles begin to tire, and Secretariat’s world record time of 2:24 in the 1973 Belmont (over 12 furlongs) is the best example of a horse being able to accomplish this feat over such a distance.  It’s not about an explosive move or “turn of foot” with classic horses; it’s steady horsepower over a distance.  Classic horses “stay” (as the Europeans like to say), while horses more suited to shorter distances simply run out of gas, unable to maintain a steady stream of “12’s” on the toteboard teletimer.

This is exactly what Eskendereya did to the field in the Fountain of Youth (G2)—he galloped them into submission.  After taking over after a half-mile in a soft 47.92, he completed six furlongs in 1:12.41, a mile in 1:36.54, with a final time for nine furlongs of 1:48.87, echoing the many 12-second furlongs before the last one.  So, like several other sons of Giant’s Causeway, Eskendereya looks capable of running a distance of ground as far as 10 furlongs at a competitive rate of speed.  Let’s look at the bottom side of his pedigree to check for more stamina.

Eskendereya’s damsire, Seattle Slew, won the Triple Crown and has been a very successful classic influence, with descendants like A.P. Indy (Belmont, Breeders’ Cup Classic), Bernardini (Preakness, Travers), Cigar (Breeders’ Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup), Lemon Drop Kid (Belmont, Travers), Mineshaft (Jockey Club Gold Cup, Suburban), and Slew o’ Gold (Jockey Club Gold Cup twice) serving as notable examples.

Alydar (second in all 3 Triple Crown races to Affirmed) is the sire of Eskendereya’s second dam, and beyond the fact that he sired two Kentucky Derby winners (Alysheba and Strike the Gold) and a Belmont winner (Easy Goer), Horse of the Year Point Given (Preakness, Belmont, Travers) was produced by a mare by champion Turkoman, he being a son of Alydar.

We know that inbreeding to the family of Almahmoud (second dam of both Halo and Northern Dancer) has been quite successful, and Giant’s Causeway is a very good example of this, as Storm Cat is a grandson of Northern Dancer and Rahy (his damsire) is out of a mare by Halo.  The pedigree of Eskendereya shows why a six-generation computer program is a good investment, as his third dam carries intensive inbreeding to the Almahmoud family as well.  His third dam is by Northern Dancer himself (giving Eskendereya “balanced” inbreeding to Northern Dancer—through a son and a daughter), and while his fourth dam was sired by the stout stamina influence Ribot (winner of the 12-furlong “Arc” twice) his fifth dam is actually the mare Cosmah, she being the dam of Halo and a daughter of Almahmoud. Thus, Eskendereya is not only inbred to Northern Dancer through  a son and a daughter, he is inbred to Halo’s dam, Cosmah, 6 x 5 and carries four total crosses of Almahmoud.

As the ancestors Northern Dancer, Halo, and their granddam Almahmoud get further back in pedigrees, this reinforcement strategy of crossing horses inbred to Almahmoud should continue to find success and revive their influence in classic pedigrees.  My parents bred and raced Preakness winner Pine Bluff (inbred 4 x 4 to Almahmoud), and I have noticed him working well with reinforcement of Almahmoud’s genes, crossing successfully with stallions like More Than Ready (by Southern Halo—closely inbred to Almahmoud), Menifee (by Harlan—closely inbred to Almahmoud), and Jules (from the Northern Dancer family and carrying Halo in his pedigree).  So, it seems to be a strategy that is paying dividends with stallions and mares already carrying inbreeding to Almahmoud.

Given the fact that Giant’s Causeway has already proven capable of siring runners that excel at classic distances, and the fact that Eskendereya carries a number of other classic influences in his pedigree (Seattle Slew, Alydar, Ribot, and intensive inbreeding to the influential Almahmoud family), I’d say that his classic prospects look very bright indeed.  His clear preference for dirt racing and ability to string together one 12 second furlong after another only boosts his stock, in my opinion.  If Eskenereya can arrive in Louisville with a solid Florida Derby (G1) effort under his belt, he should be a very strong contender.
 
Edwin Anthony was the staff pedigree consultant at Three Chimneys Farm for six years and has penned dozens of articles on pedigree research.  He also published The American Thoroughbred (Volume I) in 2008, which can be ordered via the banner ad link on this web page or on his web site at www.thoroughbredadvisor.com.

By Ray Paulick
Todd Pletcher isn’t the only who had a big weekend last week, winning three American Graded Stakes races for 3-year-olds on Feb. 20: the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park with Eskendereya, the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds with Discreetly Mine, and the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields with Connemara.

Coolmore Ashford’s Giant’s Causeway sired two of the Pletcher-trained AGS winners, Eskendereya and Connemara, giving the 13-year-old Storm Cat stallion a total of three AGS winners thus far in 2010 (San Pasqual Handicap winner Neko Bay is the other one). For good measure, another top 3-year-old prospect by Giant’s Causeway, Northern Giant, finished a solid third for Pletcher’s mentor, Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, in the Risen Star. Only 16 days earlier, Northern Giant turned in a huge effort winning an Oaklawn Park maiden race by 11 1/4 lengths. He’s obviously a slow developing colt, the win coming in his sixth start.

On the strength of those AGS winners, Giant’s Causeway is atop the general sire list thus far in 2010 after being leading North American sire in 2009 for the first time since his first crop reached the racetrack in 2004. He was a truly outstanding racehorse and it’s no surprise that he’s developed into an elite sire. Giant’s Causeway has yet to sire his first American classic winner, but Eskendereya, who moved to the top of many Kentucky Derby lists with his Fountain of Youth victory, could easily change that.

With his weekend victories, trainer Pletcher now has won eight AGS races of 2010 with seven different horses. That’s 16% of the 50 AGS races run so far this year. Pletcher is on a brief “vacation” now, the result of a suspension stemming from a positive test at the 2008 Breeders’ Cup. His stable is deep in talent, is coming off a very strong 2009, and is ranked as the leading trainer by money won so far in 2010 (with reigning Eclipse Award winner Steven Asmussen in hot pursuit) while winning at a 27% clip. With Quality Road leading the way in the older male division, an incredibly deep roster of 3-year-old talent, and undoubtedly a talented group of 2-year-olds now going through early training, this could be a year to remember for Pletcher.

The saga of Ahmed Zayat’s Zayat Stables and the Fifth Third Bank that sued the stable took an interesting turn over the weekend when Eskendereya ran away and hid from nine rivals in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Just as Fifth Third was pushing for the authority to take over and manage the Zayat Stable assets, Eskendereya, one of those assets, exploded in value with his overpowering 8 1/2-length victory that vaulted him to the top of numerous rankings of Kentucky Derby contenders, including my own. At this stage of the dispute, it would be difficult to convince a bankruptcy court judge that a bank would do a better job managing a racing stable than the team that Zayat has assembled over the last several years, when he has ranked among the leading owners in North America, retired two top stallion prospects to the breeding shed (multiple Grade 1 winner Zensational and Kentucky Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile) and developed a leading candidate for the 2010 Kentucky Derby. The bank most recently dropped their demand for a trustee to be appointed to manage the assets.

So Zayat, despite filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, holds some pretty good cards in his hand right now, led by the ace of the stable, Eskendereya, whose value probably increased tenfold with that Fountain of Youth victory.

Under normal circumstances, offers from stallion farms would start flooding in on a horse like Eskendereya, considering how he dismantled a good field and the pedigree he carries (Giant’s Causeway out of a Seattle Slew mare). But if the horse is worth $5 million or more and Zayat decides to sell all or part of him, how much of a dent would that put on the reported $34 million he is said ot owe Fifth Third? Probably not enough to convince Zayat to sell, especially given his personal quest to win big races like the Kentucky Derby. Besides, if Eskendereya runs the table and wins the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown (and we’re not making that prediction), he’s probably worth tens of millions of dollars and closer to bailing Zayat out in one fell swoop.

On the other side of this rather expensive coin is the grim reality that what goes up also can come down. If Eskendereya is worth $5 million today after a Grade 2 victory, what would he be worth if he throws in a clunker next time out and fails to hit the board? Answer: a lot less than what he is worth today.

Zayat is a gambler, both at the betting windows and in the auction ring. He’s gambled tens of millions of dollars that he can increase the value of his bloodstock assets, and I would bet that he will not be willing to sell a cherished property like Eskendereya as long as there is more upside available. His track record in the horse business suggests he does not sell on the way up.

I think it goes without saying Fifth Third would like Zayat to monetize some assets, but he is currently holding the cards. 

Click here for Ray’s Under The Raydar segment

Following is my latest top 10 horses for the Paulick Derby Index:
 
1. Eskendereya. Leader of Todd’s Squad, perhaps the strongest group of horses multiple Eclipse Award-winning trainer Todd Pletcher has ever had in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby, where his futility is well documented. Pletcher will win more than one Derby before his career is over.

2. Lookin At Lucky. Still awaiting the 2009 2-year-old champion’s seasonal debut. Bob Baffert trained the son of Smart Strike cautiously last weekend when rain hitouthern California. If he has no prep on dirt prior to the Kentucky Derby, this one will be tough to gauge.

3. Rule. Pletcher has some time on the sidelines, thanks to the suspension he received as a result of a positive test at the 2008 Breeders’ Cup. He can use the down time to map out a road to the Derby for his various candidates, including this son of Roman Ruler, who has looked good beating up on relatively weak competition.

4. American Lion. Assuming Eoin Harty will keep Tiznow colt on synthetic surfaces until testing him at Churchill Downs. At this stage he looks to be part of a heavy speed brigade among the various contenders.

5. Dave in Dixie. Can’t wait to see this Dixie Union colt’s next start for trainer John Sadler. Finished with a tremendous burst in deep stretch in the Robert Lewis Stakes and figures to improve with racing.

6. Discreetly Mine. Pletcher-trained colt fits the profile of a Kentucky Derby winner in so many ways: a lot of racing experience at two, strong performances in graded stakes, and a pedigree (Mineshaft out of a Private Account mare) that makes you think distance is no problem.

7. Conveyance. Hard to knock an unbeaten horse, and this Indian Charlie colt has been highly regarded from the start; he sold for $240,000 as a yearling and probably brought 10 times more than that when he was purchased privately by Zabeel Racing earlier this year.

8. Dublin. Hopeful winner at Saratoga last summer returned to good form in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, chasing Conveyance to the wire while making up a lot of ground in the final eighth of a mile. That suggests the D. Wayne Lukas-trained son of Afleet Alex will be that much tougher when the distances stretch out.

9. Buddy’s Saint. Son of Saint Liam went from big time to small time in no time with his ninth-place finish in Fountain of Youth. But considering all the trouble the Nashua and Remsen Stakes winner had around the first turn when he was bounced around after rushing up along the rail into a hole that didn’t exist, it’s easy to see how the colt may have gotten discouraged. It’s the kind of race you just draw a line through and hope it wasn’t a reflection of his true ability.

10. Caracortado. Just like with Conveyance, it’s tough to knock perfection. He’s had relatively soft competition until last out in the Robert Lewis, when son of Cat Dream got the perfect trip behind dueling leaders

By Ray Paulick
No market segment will go unscathed when an industry has the kind of downturn the Thoroughbred bloodstock business experienced over the last 18 months.  The 2009 yearling market took a $150-million hit in gross revenue, falling from $438 million in 2008 to $280 million last year, a 36% decline and the lowest since 1996. A yearling’s average price of $44,900 was the lowest since 2002.

Similarly, total revenue generated in 2009 sales of 2-year-olds in training–$118 million—fell by 33% to its lowest point since 1996. The 2009 average of $48,972 was the lowest since 2003. The good news is that the median, middle-market number remained steady at $20,000. The number of 2-year-olds sold in 2009, 2,412, along with the 3,363 offered was the lowest in those two categories in more than 20 years.

Mike Mulligan, the president of the National Association of Two-Year-Old Consignors  (NATC) and operator with wife Britt of Leprechaun Racing in Ocala, Fla., said sellers of 2-year-olds have made adjustments coming into 2010. He also believes, not surprisingly, that the 2-year-old market should be the place Thoroughbred owners turn to when they are looking for horses with the potential to win at the highest level and cites a number of statistics supporting that contention (click here to see the NATC’s scorecard of stakes winners).

For Mulligan, 2009 was a difficult year personally, and not just because of the downturn in the bloodstock market. Last March, shortly after selling a $275,000 yearling purchase for $1.1 million at the Fasig-Tipton Calder sale, Mulligan blacked out and fell, suffering a serious head injury. He required four surgeries during the year, the most recent in December. “I was injured pretty badly and it was very distractive and scary,” Mulligan said. “But I was able to travel to all the yearling sales and we are in business as usual. My wits are about me, and I want everyone to know that everything is OK. We got so much support from people in the industry, from my partnership base and friends, and that was very gratifying.”

Mulligan spoke with the Paulick Report about the upcoming 2-year-old sale season that begins next week with the OBS selected sale of 2-year-olds on Feb. 16. Other major 2-year-old sales include Fasig-Tipton’s Calder sale March 2; the OBS March sale March 16-17; Barretts selected sale March 22; Keeneland’s sale April 5; and the OBS April sale April 19-22.

What are the most critical factors that will drive the 2010 market for 2-year-olds?
I think it’s the success, particularly the success of the 2009 graduates at every level of the game. I’ve been doing the advertising for the NATC for nearly a decade now, and the statistics are very favorable for 2-year-olds, versus other ways to acquire a horse. If anyone new to the game was using an analyst to evaluate these statistics, I feel confident he would point them to the 2-year-old sales.
 
Obviously there will be fewer horses in the 2-year-old market because of the global economy and 2-year-old consignors not having a spectacular year in 2009, which means their spending at yearling sales was reduced. I know I spent less last year, looking more for that horse that fell through the cracks at a yearling sale.

What is the outlook for this sale season?
I feel cautiously optimistic. We have already seen the hit from the economy and the stock market. There will still be a vast number of buyers that go to 2-year-old sales and trainers that like to buy horses are still going to be there.

How has the banking crisis and tightening of credit affected pinhooking?
It certainly has affected things. Credit tightening has cut people back. It would have to hurt some people and it always has a trickle down effect. What happened in the Thoroughbred market is like what happened in the real estate market years ago. I had a friend who had been flipping houses and doing well, then all of a sudden that market collapsed. The banking crisis caused mares to be sold at a bad time, horses were sold as weanlings instead of as yearlings, yearlings were sold instead of going to the track.

How has the market changed over time?
Years ago there was more of a middle market, where one guy might buy 10 horses for $80,000 or $90,000 each. Today, that same guy might get two or three horses for $250,000 each. When I first raced horses, winning a maiden race, even on a weekday, that was the greatest feeling ever. But now there is more of a Kentucky Derby mentality, where people are looking for that special horse, that big horse. But there are plenty of horses that don’t sell or bring small money that end up being really nice horses. It’s something I’ve seen while reviewing graded stakes winners over the last 10 years, the number of nice horses that come out of these 2-year-olds sales for very little money and are ready to run.

Pinhooking partnerships have been an attractive investment for quite a few people. Are we getting to the point where we have too many people working on the assembly line, either as breeders or pinhooking investors, and not enough people to buy the end product?
I think that’s very true. We all know racing has some challenges to overcome over the next couple of years to deepen the fan base. Many big racing enthusiasts end up getting into other aspects of the industry, including horse ownership. We need more customers that want to buy racehorses. Racing is supposed to be a sport. I’ve never told anybody, ‘Lets go race these horses and we’ll make a bunch of money.’ Look at yachting. How much do some people spend on yachts to win a boat race. It’s more of a sport than a financial endeavor. Racing needs to be looked upon from that standpoint, and we haven’t done a good job promoting that aspect of participation.

Florida’s foal crop has fallen sharply the last two years and a number of stallions have left the state. Why has that happened, and how will it affect 2-year-old sales?
It’s going to have an impact on the market, but I really feel a lot of the mares not bred over the last couple of years were not elite mares putting out attractive horses in the yearling market or that ended up at 2-year-old sales. I think the middle to high end mares that can contribute, those mares are still being bred.

What other factors have led to the decline in the number of 2-year-olds in training being offered?
Yearling buyers have learned from 2-year-old consignors about what horses will make the grade. I feel there is more and more competition on the better, more athletic horses at yearling sales–more end users are buying the horses that pinhookers might have been on before. You are trying to buy ‘X’ number of horses, and the competition is there from fellow pinhookers and end users.  Ten or 12 years ago you could buy a good physical horse by an off sire, but now it’s not so easy. If they are an athlete they are going to be pursued that much more today at the yearling sales.

Are buyers getting tougher in their vetting of horses?
If I’m given a choice between a yearling that vets perfectly, scopes perfectly and has what I think is limited ability versus a horse with a couple of minor problems but has what could be huge ability, I’ll take the horse with the minor problems. When buyers see a special horse they are inclined to overlook minor issues. None of us can afford to overlook major physical problems.

What difference has the synthetic track had on the OBS sales?
I think it has created a level playing field to some extent. Horses are not able separate themselves as much from a time standpoint, and it’s a much safer track. Turnbacks (horses returned by buyers after the sale because of bone issues) have significantly decreased since we put in the synthetic track. They come out of their breezes more sound.

There have been two other changes in the last couple of years that in my mind have helped us continue to produce good products. First, we’ve gone to one breeze show. The second breeze show on rare occasions may have helped a horse that was sick or not able to perform during the first breeze. But realistically there weren’t that many horses that moved up on a second breeze. Most of the buyers had made their minds up by the time the first breeze show was over. The NATC and the sales companies agreed it would be best to go to one breeze.

Second, we restricted whip use, not allowing a horse to be whipped once they start breezing and not allowing the horse to be whipped past the wire in the gallop out. A buyer gets a truer picture, and the results of these two things were outstanding this year, in terms of horses that went from 2-year-old sales to be champions, Grade 1 winners and performing well in the Breeders’ Cup.

Why was the National Association of Two-Year-Old Consignors formed?
When we first created it in 2000, there was some drug testing issues implemented by sale companies, and a group of consignors said we needed a voice so that the guidelines and testing were appropriate and best for the horses. We collectively grouped together to have a voice with the sale companies, we work collectively in advertising 2-year-old sales in the trade publications that say this is who we are and talking about the success of 2-year-old sale graduates. Over the years we have been encouraged consignors to make horses eligible for NATC Futurities..

Has it succeeded in its mission?
We’ve done well. We have educated buyers who have come to the sale just because of our advertising, and we’ve done well with the Futurity, something that’s more for the middle horse going to a regional market in the East Coast.

We are trying to do what’s best for the horse and to sell a good product. If you sell a lot of expensive horses that haven’t produced, you’re going to lose your buyer base. That hasn’t been the case. The results on the racetrack speak for themselves.

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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By Ray Paulick
I took no glee in writing about bloodstock agent Jim Cullen’s legal and financial problems earlier this week. The trail of lawsuits, unpaid financial obligations and charges of alleged wrongdoing from some of his former clients and associates do not paint a pretty picture to outsiders interested in investing in the Thoroughbred industry.

For his part, Cullen has responded to my article at the website he maintains for his company, Cullen Bloodstock. Click here to read his response. Feel free to comment below on whether you feel he was wronged by the Paulick Report expose, or in subsequent, similar articles at bloodhorse.com and drf.com.

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By Ray Paulick
Know and Trust is a 2-year-old filly owned by some former clients of bloodstock agent Jim Cullen and trained by Cullen’s childhood friend and college roommate William Denzik Jr.

Cullen was recently given a one-year banishment from participation at Keeneland Association auctions, based on violation of a Code of Conduct written by the Sales Integrity Task Force, an initiative of the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association. Fasig-Tipton is also enforcing the one-year suspension, which runs through 2010, and other sales companies around the country are considering taking the same action. The sanctions came earlier in November, nine months after Trumbulovich, Kevin Geiger of Colorado and Vincent Colbert of Massachusetts contacted the Task Force with complaints about their former bloodstock adviser. “We could easily have turned our back on this, walked away and say we got screwed,” Colbert said. “We talked it over and decided we didn’t want this to happen to somebody else.”

But that is just the beginning of Cullen’s troubles. He has been sued by several parties, including horse owner Cam Horton, the stallion season firm Early Season Income, National City Bank, and Wells Fargo Bank. The Internal Revenue Service says Cullen owes $233,143.72 in taxes from 2003-05. He agreed in 2007 to pay Cam Horton $333,000 for not reimbursing Horton for a season to A.P. Indy after Horton’s mare aborted, and has not met that obligation. A Fayette County judge has ordered him to pay National City Bank $348,181.65. Wells Fargo is in the process of foreclosing on Cullen’s home.

FROM JOURNALISM TO PINHOOKING

Cullen is a former journalist who worked for Thoroughbred Times as a news reporter, then served as editor of the Texas Thoroughbred magazine while contributing to the Blood-Horse as a free-lance correspondent. He also was employed for a short time by the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association based in Lexington. As recently as August of this year, he was a guest speaker at a new owners’ seminar Blood-Horse Publications sponsored in conjunction with the Texas Thoroughbred Association prior to a Fasig-Tipton yearling sale.

‘I’M A GOOD HORSEMAN. I’M OBVIOUSLY NOT A GOOD BUSINESS PERSON’

A number of mares in the partnerships were bred, and the partners were billed for stud fees, which they subsequently paid for, according to Cullen’s sworn testimony in the March 2009 deposition involving the National City Bank lawsuit. Under questioning from attorney Emily Cowles of Morgan & Pottinger (representing National City) and Mike Meuser of Miller Griffin and Marks (representing Trumbulovic, Colbert and Geiger), Cullen admitted that on numerous occasions he did not use the money billed to clients for stud fees to pay those fees. Many of the fees were never paid to the farms.

Here is an excerpt regarding Cullen’s purchase of stallion seasons, the billing of clients and non-payment to farms:

MEUSER: Okay, and I can show you the other invoices. But on each occasion that you billed Mr. Colbert or Mr. Geiger or Mr. Trumbulovic for these stud feeds you labeled them specifically on your invoice that that’s what they were being billed for.

MEUSER: All right. And you had made the contractual arrangements with the farms to obtain those seasons?

CULLEN: Correct.

MEUSER: And you knew that when you received those monies from my clients you were obligated to to use them to satisfy those obligations?

CULLEN: See, I didn’t know that. I thought like I, like I’ve made clear, I thought that the whole protection of an LLC was designated to give you license to use that to the best benefit of the company as provided you satisfied what this obligation was for.

CULLEN: I can understand. Yes, sir.

MEUSER: … that a client who received this bill and paid it would have the expectation that their agent who they trusted would use those monies properly?

CULLEN: Yes, sir. Yes, sir. I, I agree to that. I mean.

MEUSER: That’s all I have.

CULLEN: Okay.

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Stuart serves as scholarship coordinator of the fund, which recently awarded 32 scholarships for 2009-2010, bring to 384 the number of annual scholarships (at an average of $2,000 apiece) handed out since the program began in 1996. Approximately 125 recipients have been graduated from college or technical programs, several with honors and many on the Dean’s list, including a 4.0 valedictorian.

The students must apply by July 1, and the scholarships are based on need, merit, essays and personal interviews with Stuart and the board members in late July. They are required to re-apply and interview each year during college. To be eligible, the applicant must have at least one parent working at a Kentucky Thoroughbred farm.

“These kids have these huge work ethics,” Stuart said, “and because most of them have never had family members go to college, it’s a whole new life experience. Some of them are shocked that they are actually getting the chance to go to college. It’s so gratifying for us because we get to hear their hopes and dreams, and it’s fun to see their confidence grow year to year. They have so much presence and are just the greatest kids.”

The idea for the scholarship fund came from Liberation Farm’s Rob Whiteley, who serves as president of the Horse Farm Workers Educational Assistance Fund, and Tom Evans of Trackside Farm, the fund’s vice president and treasurer.

“Horse Farm workers are the backbone of the Thoroughbred industry,” said Whiteley, “and these young people are a source of great pride to their parents who have worked so hard in order for their children to enjoy a fulfilling and productive quality of life. The scholarships are an investment in truly motivated individuals who possess initiative and great potential. And the best news of all is that many of them intend to pursue careers in the Thoroughbred industry. In this way, supporting the Fund also makes practical sense, as it helps to build a stronger horse industry in the future. Several graduates are already distinguishing themselves in horse related endeavors, including one who is currently serving as Director of Racing at a major North American track.”

Board members include Whiteley; Evans; Judge Wilson of Wyatt, Tarrant and Combs,, the fund’s secretary; Dan Pride of Fasig-Tipton; John Stuart of Bluegrass Thoroughbred Services; John Sikura of Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm; and Chet Blackey, DVM. Churchill Downs Inc. chairman Carl Pollard serves as an informal advisor.

“I would like to thank all of the board members for their time, caring and commitment, as well as the many individuals who have generously supported and valued this remarkable group of young scholars since the Fund’s inception,” said Whiteley. “We are especially grateful to the Carl Pollard Foundation, Thoroughbred Charities of America, Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm, Darley America, Fasig-Tipton, Keeneland, the Crafty Prospector syndicate, the Kentucky Thoroughbred Farm Managers’ Club, and the Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders for their substantial contributions. In addition, I am appreciative that six of our female scholars for 2009-2010 will receive awards funded by the generosity of the Charlotte R. Schmidlapp Fund, Fifth Third Bank, Trustee.”

This year’s scholars have a working parent at one of the following farms: Beech Spring Farm, Bradyleigh, CASA (2), Cedar Ridge, Claiborne (4), Crestwood, Darby Dan, Darley America (4), Denali, Fab Oak, Golden Age, High Point, Indian Creek, Loch Lea, Manchester, Niknar, Pin Oak, Six Winters, Stonehaven Steadings, Sunnyside, Three Chimneys (2), Wimbledon, and Winstar Farm.

The 2009-2010 Horse Farm Workers’ Educational Assistance scholars and the schools they will be attending are as follows:

Kaitlyn Alexander - Morehead State U.
Megan Brady - Morehead State U.
Lindsay Brumley - Thomas More College
Sarah Burton - Mary Baldwin College
Monica Calleja – BCTC
Cheli Castillo – BCTC
Brett Courtney – BCTC
Josh Davis - Morehead State U.
Pamela Deegan - Murray State U.
Liz Fiero - Murray State U.
Shane Goforth – U. of Kentucky
Megan Hephner - Middle Tennessee State
Ashley Herrera – U. of Kentucky
Mary Koch – U. of Kentucky
Kathleen Layton – U. of Kentucky
Megan Lynn – BCTC
Linzay Marks – LSU
Sean Parisel - U. of Kentucky
Steven Powell - Western KY U.
Justin Purvis – BCTC
John Rankin - Morehead State U.
Trey Rankin - Thomas More College
Jose Salazar – BCTC
Viridiana Salazar – BCTC
Hanna Sams - Morehead State U.
Lyndsay Sams - Eastern Kentucky U.
Sarah Shaw - Eastern Kentucky U.
Stephanie Sosby - U. of the Cumberlands
Miller Thornbury - University of the South
Parker Wornall - Western Kentucky U.
Lindsay Zahn - Eastern Kentucky U.
Elizabeth Zajic - Eastern Kentucky U.

–BCTC = Bluegrass Community and Technical College
–Two of the scholars who will be attending the University of Kentucky are also UK Pollard Scholars, and another is a UK Jamal Mashburn Scholar. The Scholarship Fund is a 501(c)(3) organization run on a volunteer basis, with over 92% of donated monies flowing through to recipients. Tax deductible contributions may be made to the Horse Farm Workers’ Educational Assistance Fund, 2938 Four Pines Drive, Lexington, KY 40502-2969. Applications for the 2010-2011 school year will be available in May, and inquiries may be made to (859) 269-1719

. Additional information may be viewed at www.horsefarmworkerseducationfund.com.

Liberation Farm celebrates the many horsemen and horsewomen who strive each day to make things better for horses and those who work with them.  To learn more about Liberation Farm, click here.

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“Year after year, hard working, extraordinary young people continue to impress the board with their ability, accomplishments, and enthusiasm,” said Whiteley. “They have internalized the work ethic of their parents, and most of them help pay their way through school by working one or more jobs in addition to carrying a full load of classes. Thus, the goal of the fund is to provide enough money to these deserving students so that their school work can be their number one priority.”

By Ray Paulick
Muffy Stuart calls it the “most inspiring day of my life.” It’s the day she and the board of directors of the Horse Farm Workers’ Educational Assistance Fund in Kentucky get to meet the young people who have applied for college scholarships. In many cases, the teenagers will be the first in their families to attend a college or university.

By Ray Paulick
At the suggestion of a Paulick Report reader who thinks the market declines at Monday’s opening session of the Keeneland September yearling sale were overstated, we’ve done a comparison that includes figures from the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale from 2008 and 2009 and the first day of Keeneland from both years.So before we begin Tuesday’s live blog from Keeneland, we’ll spend a few minutes going over those numbers.

The assumption, and one repeated by more than a few people on the sale grounds, is that Keeneland lost some of its book one yearlings to the Saratoga sale, which was revitalized this year by Fasig-Tipton’s new, deep-pocketed owner, Dubai-based Synergy Investments. With a lot of help from Sheikh Mohammed, friend of the new owner and the industry’s leading buyer, the Saratoga sale jumped 45.6% in gross receipts and 11.1% in average, defying the trends at nearly every other Thoroughbred auction. The sale ended up with an average of $328,434, 29% higher than the opening day’s average at Keeneland. Last year’s Saratoga average was $295,738, 18.7% lower than the opening day average at Keeneland.

Do we have something of a role reversal under way?

Adding last year’s Saratoga numbers to the 2008 opening session at Keeneland gives us a total of 276 yearlings sold (122 at Saratoga, 154 at Keeneland) for $94,127,000 ($38,080,000 at Saratoga, $56,047,000 at Keeneland), an average blended price of $341,039.

This year’s two sessions of Saratoga and the opening session of Keeneland saw a combined 267 yearlings sell (160 Saratoga, 107 Keeneland) for $77,498,500 ($52,549,500 Saratoga, $24,949,000 Keeneland), an average price of $290,257.

Thus, the gross revenue from these three select sessions is down 17.7% from 2008 and the average has declined by 14.9%.

I’m not trying to sugarcoat what happened Monday. For those who remember the late 1980s and early ‘90s, yesterday’s session was reminiscent of that era when many breeders were selling yearlings for less than the stud fee invested in them–just cutting their losses. The difference today is that the racing industry, the economic engine at the foundation of Thoroughbred breeding, is lurching through troubled waters. The economics of horse ownership are worse today than they were in the late 1980s, and the crisis within the global economy only makes matters more dire.

Incidentally, just because Sheikh Mohammed stepped up his investments at Saratoga, it didn’t mean there was any slowdown for him at Keeneland. His agent, John Ferguson, led all buyers Monday with 14 bought for $5,152,000, and it will be interesting to see if any of the other foreign-based purchases will end up carrying his Darley or Godolphin colors on the track.

Here are a few addition numbers to ponder:

Taylor Made, Monday’s leading consignor, offered 38 yearlings, and half were bought back and listed as RNA. Eaton Sales (excluding the five Overbrook yearlings that sold without reserves) offered 16 and bought nine back. Three Chimneys offered eight and bought five back. Some smaller consignments like Chesapeake (3 offered), Man o’ War (three) and Middlebrook Farm (2) bought all their horses back.

A few consignors had better luck: Brereton Jones offered six and bought back just one. Gainesway sold four of five offered; Lane’s End sold 14 of 18 and Warrendale sold all four, and Claiborne, Narvick and T. Wayne Sweezey and partners all were 3-for-3 in sales from their Monday offerings.

Will a reset button change things Tuesday? Geoffrey Russell, Keeneland’s director of sales, said his staff believes there are some potential breakout yearlings catalogued today, but he said the same thing about Monday’s book.

We’ll find out soon enough.

11:40 a.m. … Today’s live blog is just like the sale itself–a bit slow to get going. I spent the first hour wandering the grounds and talking with buyers and consignors, and there are very few optimists in this crowd. The negative forces at work include the global economy, market volatility, the credit squeeze, the disappearance of investment money for pinhookers, troubles in the racing industry, a shortage of new owners and departure of some existing ones…you name it. One horseman who buys and sells, after perusing Monday’s results sheet, said: “We should be bowing to Sheikh Mohammed for doing his best to hold this sale up. If it wasn’t for him–and he’s buying horses through other agents besides John Ferguson–it would be a lot worse than it already is, and it’s bad enough.”

Speaking of Sheikh Mohammed, he helped break through the seven-figure ceiling that seemed almost a psychological barrier for the first 245 Hips catalogued. Standing alongside the ruler of Dubai, Ferguson signed the ticket for a $1 million filly by Unbridled’s Song out of the Strawberry Road mare, Strawberry Reason, consigned by Stone Farm as agent. The filly is a half sister to champion Vindication.

12:10 p.m. … Last year’s second session of the Keeneland September yearling sale was a bit stronger in average price than the first day, with 146 yearlings selling for $57,310,000, an average price of $392,534 and a median of $300,000.

The cumulative figures for the first two days in 2008 were: 300 sold for $113,357,000, an average of $377,857 and a median of $300,000.

So far in today’s second session, including the first 40 catalogued, 22 yearlings have sold for $6,600,000, an average of $300,000 and median of $247,500 (the average includes the only $1 million horse sold thus far). There have been 12 RNAs, 35.3% (at an average price of $156,667), somewhat better than Monday’s opening session. The average and median are both up from Monday, too, but still significantly down from 2008.

12:30 p.m. … With the two select sessions nearly 65% complete (Hips 1-268 of the 418 catalogued), here are the cumulative numbers (comparable figures are listed above in the 12:10 p.m. update): 141 sold sold for $34,294,000, an average of $243,220 and median price of $200,000. The number bought back stands at 95, or 40.3% of those through the ring. Today’s RNAs are running at 37%.

2:20 p.m. … Here’s a new one. Hip 296, an Elusive Quality colt that was selected for book one of the Keeneland sale, left the ring without a single bid being made on it. I haven’t seen that before during the select sessions. A short time earlier, when Hip 280, a Giant’s Causeway colt, left the ring, he sold for just $5,000. It’s an unforgiving market.

Through Hip 310 (the session ends at Hip 418), the average for Tuesday was $270,756 and the median was identical to Monday’s $200,000. There have been 32 RNAs, a buyback rate of 36%. The buybacks have averaged $153,563. Today’s average is down 31% from 2008’s comparable session. It’s improved, but it’s hard to find many smiling faces around here.

2:35 p.m. … That was a pleasant deja vu. John Magnier vs. Sheikh Mohammed, just like in the days of old. The two international Thoroughbred giants hooked up in the first battle royal of the sale, Hip 342, a Storm Cat colt out of the Indian Charlie mare Fleet Indian, consigned by Taylor Made Sales Agency on behalf of the Summer Wind Farm of Frank and Jane Lyons, brought a final bid of $2,050,000 from Sheikh Mohammed and agent Ferguson, who were standing out back in their usual spot. Magnier, who is usually just a few paces behind the sheikh’s entourage by the horse path near the back ring, had slipped inside the pavilion to do his bidding, according to sources. The final price more than doubled the sale’s previous high of $1 million. The colt is the first foal out of Fleet Indian, a winner of 13 of 19 starts and champion older mare in North America.

3:20 p.m. … How would this sale be going without Sheikh Mohammed? His agent, John Ferguson, has signed 15 tickets Tuesday for yearlings totaling $7,830,000, roughly one-third of the day’s gross receipts. That brings Sheikh Mohammed’s two-day total to 29 yearlings purchased in the name of Ferguson, plus an unspecified number that may have been bought through associates and other agents. The $2,050,000 sale-topping Storm Cat colt has helped increase the day’s average to $289,720 from 82 lots sold. The receipts so far total $23,757,000. There have been 42 RNAs from the first 124 through the ring, a percentage of 33%. The median is $222,500.

3:45 p.m. … With about 30 horses left to sell, here are the cumulative numbers for the first two days of the Keeneland September yearling sale: 198 sold for $50,961,000, an average price of $257,379 and median of $210,000. There have been 52 yearlings withdrawn and 123 listed as RNAs, a cumulative buyback rate of 38.3%. (For comparison with 2008’s select sessions, see today’s blog update at 12:10 p.m.)

It is almost certain the average for the two Keeneland select sessions will fall below the $328,434 average price of Fasig-Tipton’s 2009 Saratoga sale. That’s the first time since 1999 that Saratoga’s yearling sale average topped the select sessions at Keeneland September. Back in 1999, however, Keeneland still had a July select yearling sale where many of the top offerings were sold. That sale was suspended in 2003.

We’ll  report on the final numbers around 6 p.m.

6:15 p.m. … “It’s a reflection of the world…it speaks for itself,” Keeneland’s director of sales Geoffrey Russell said after the final hammer came down on the two select sessions of the 2009 Keeneland September yearling sale. The numbers on Tuesday’s second session improved across the board from Monday,  but the comparisons to previous years and the cold, hard facts left many breeders reeling.

The number sold over the two days, 222, was down 26% from last year’s 300 sold, Gross receipts of $58,756,000 reflected a 48.2% drop from 2008’s $113,357,000. The average of $264,667 was a decline of 30.0% from $377,857 last yeawr and the median price, $215,000, fell 28.3% from $300,000 in 2008.

There were 137 horses bought back by consignors from the 359 through the ring, an RNA rate of 38.2%, up substantially from the 30.1% buybacks in 2008.

Tuesday’s comparative figures with 2008 were 115 sold for $33,807,000, an average of $293,974 and median price of $250,000. Those numbers represent a 41% decline in gross receipts, a 25.1% drop in average and a $16.7% fall in median from 2008’s 146 sold for $57,310,000, an average of $392,534 and median of $300,000. Tuesday’s 62 buybacks were 35% of the 177 offered, up slightly from the 32.1% RNAs at the second session in 2008.

There were three seven-figure yearlings sold Tuesday (none Monday), topped by the $2,050,000 Storm Cat colt purchased by Sheikh Mohammed’s agent, John Ferguson, the leading buyer of the select sessions with 31 purchases totaling $13,460,000. It was the fewest million-dollar yearlings sold at the September sale since 1997, when two brought seven figures.

Ferguson told the Paulick Report that Sheikh Mohammed purchased additional horses through other agents, including Blandford Bloodstock, the sale’s fourth leading buyer (11 for $2,742,000) but that he was uncertain of the total number. Ferguson said he would attend at least a portion of Wednesday’s first non-select session before leaving Lexington.

 

 

Combining the two days of the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga select yearling sale in August with the Keeneland September select session, there were 382 yearlings sold in 2009, compared with 422 last year. The 2009 combined average of the two sales was $291,375, a decline of 18.8%. Gross receipts in 2009 were $111,305,500, a 26.5% drop from the combined FT Saratoga and Keeneland September select gross of $151,437,000 last year.In 2008, Keeneland’s market share of the combined gross receipts with FT Saratoga was 74.9%, with FT’s share at 25.1%. When the results of this year’s top two yearling sales were finalized, Keeneland’s market share fell to 52.8% with FT at 47.2%. For the first time since 1999, the FT Saratoga sale resulted in higher average prices than the select sessions at the Keeneland September sale. 

The Paulick Report will have further analysis of the select sessions on Wednesday morning.

Book two yearlings sell Wednesday and Thursday, beginning at 10 a.m. Friday is an off day, followed by 10 consecutive days of selling starting Saturday.

 Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

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