Posts Tagged ‘Edwin Anthony’
Thursday, March 11th, 2010
Pedigree consultant and author Edwin Anthony examines the bloodlines of Discreetly Mine, winner of the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, in the second in a series of articles written exclusively for the Paulick Report. Click here to view last week’s article, looking at the pedigree of Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth winner Eskendereya.
DISCREETLY MINE (Mineshaft—Pretty Discreet, by Private Account)
By Edwin Anthony
There’s something to be said for the concept of sticking close to the most established and historically significant Thoroughbred families. The pedigree of Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra provides us with a good example of this, as her sire Medaglia d’Oro is a son of El Prado (closely related to the studs Drone and Notebook from the important Bend Or family), while Medaglia d’Oro is himself out of a mare by Bailjumper (Frizette family) and his second dam is inbred 3 x 4 to the important mare Sunday Evening (in direct female line and via champion Silent Screen) from the very productive Idle Fancy family (champions Cicada, Dark Mirage, First Landing, Hill Prince, Indian Skimmer, Speightstown, plus Dublin, Henrythenavigator, Java Gold, etc.).
On the dam side, Rachel Alexandra is out of a good racemare by Roar, who was not himself a particularly memorable racehorse (won the Grade 2 Jim Beam), but is out of a full sister to Hero’s Honor (damsire of Elusive Quality) and very closely related to Kentucky Derby winner Sea Hero from a very strong branch of the La Troienne family. This mare by Roar also carries inbreeding to the important mare Pocahontas (dam of Chieftain and Tom Rolfe), while her dam concentrates the genes of the Imperatrice family via Cure the Blues and Sir Gaylord (half-brother to Secretariat). Further back in her dam side, we find that Rachel Alexandra not only traces to a mare by the notable stud War Relic (3 x 3 in the pedigree of In Reality) but traces directly to War Relic’s full-sister as well. This is also the family of Belmont winners Sword Dancer (sire of Damascus) and Hail to All, as well as Handicap Triple Crown winner Fit to Fight.
Thus, you can see what I’m getting at—a working knowledge of the best Thoroughbred families can pay real dividends. These families not only produce top racehorses, but genetic connections (via Bailjumper, El Prado, Roar, etc.) that can send a pedigree spinning off in a whole new direction (a very good direction), especially in combination and through inbreeding, which serves to reinforce genetic dominance in a pedigree. These genetic connections don’t necessarily come via the best or most high-profile stallions from these families, although the best stallions from these families do very often combine successfully in pedigrees with their close relatives.
A skeptic can raise the legitimate point that the most resources (in stud fees and overall investment) are spent on mares from these very specific families. I can hardly argue with this point, as there is a great deal of truth to it. But that’s like saying that people spend the most money on houses in the best neighborhoods and that the most investment in remodeling and landscaping is spent on these same houses. These neighborhoods are the safest place to invest your money, as long as you are spending that money on real estate.
With bloodstock, you see a similar trend, and as long as these families continue to produce results on the racetrack and in the breeding shed, breeders will continue to concentrate their assets in them and in their descendants.
Instead of fighting this trend and lamenting the fact that you can’t afford to purchase a $1-million mare, use these families to your advantage. Buy fillies and mares from the edges of these families or buy fillies and mares sired by stallions from these families. Build your own family. I’m not saying that you’ll be able to accomplish this task overnight, but there are too many success stories using this kind of strategy to list here. It’s like buying the cheapest house in a good neighborhood and slowly adding value to it through improvements.
Of course, you’re not likely to stumble across a mare like the dam of Rachel Alexandra with your first mare purchase, but you don’t want to spend a mint’s worth of cash to discover that your mares simply don’t have the genetic wiring to produce stakes horses in the first place. You want to invest where gold and silver was mined successfully before, or at least operate in the same part of the world. There are no extra points in the horse business for finding treasure where no one has found it before (that’s an uphill battle), and stallions with the most connections to these superior families are generally worth the most as breeding stock. This is where breeders will steer their best mares.
So, this background in Thoroughbred families leads us to our subject pedigree, belonging to recent Risen Star Stakes (G2) winner Discreetly Mine. He traces to the mare Risque (1928, by Stimulus), and another branch of the Risque family leads to Broodmare of the Year Key Bridge, whose sons include champion 3-year-old colt Key to the Mint (a successful sire and broodmare sire), co-Horse of the Year/champion turf horse Fort Marcy (a gelding), and Grade 1 turf winner Key to Content.
Discreetly Mine’s branch of the Risque family leads to the Northern Dancer mare Christmas Wishes, who had a full-sister named Cool Mood. Cool Mood had a Buckpasser daughter named Passing Mood, who produced Belmont (G1)/Haskell (G1) winner Touch Gold (a useful sire) and With Approval (Horse of the Year in Canada).
Christmas Wishes produced a Tom Rolfe daughter named Bury the Hatchet, who in turned produced the full-sisters Buryyourbelief (G1 Kentucky Oaks winner) and Pretty Persuasive. Pretty Persuasive is the dam of Pretty Discreet (G1 Alabama winner), she being the dam of Discreetly Mine.
A closer inspection of Pretty Discreet’s pedigree reveals that her sire, Private Account, carries inbreeding to La Troienne (2 crosses) and War Admiral (3 crosses) via his dam—champion 2-year-old filly Numbered Account (by Buckpasser). Buckpasser is also the damsire of Believe It (sire of Pretty Discreet’s dam), meaning that Pretty Discreet carries the tremendous broodmare sire Buckpasser 3 x 4 in her pedigree.
If all of this sounds vaguely familiar, it is because Pretty Discreet has been around for quite some time and has been a very good producer. Although her first three foals by Boundary (inbred closely to Damascus) were a combined 1 for 24, Pretty Discreet’s fourth foal, Pretty Wild (by Wild Again), was second in both the Hopeful (G1) and Futurity (G1) at 2. An unraced daughter of Awesome Again named Discreetly Awesome followed two foals later, and her daughter Awesome Maria (by Maria’s Mon) won the G2 Matron and placed second in the Frizette (G1) in 2009. Discreet Cat (by Forestry) was Pretty Discreet’s next foal, and his record is well documented, as he won his first six starts, including the Grade 1 Cigar Mile, in which he equaled Easy Goer’s one-mile track record at Aqueduct.
One might point to Discreet Cat’s brilliant speed over one mile and doubt the stamina of Discreetly Mine. But keep in mind that Discreet Cat is a son of Forestry (by Storm Cat) and although Forestry is out of a daughter of the stamina influence Pleasant Colony, he was a King’s Bishop (G1) winner over seven furlongs and his progeny seem to favor more of the Storm Cat prototype, prospering more in the sprinter/miler realm than in classic distance events. Pretty Discreet did win the Alabama (10 furlongs), so we are starting with a foundation of stamina in the dam.
Private Account (sire of Pretty Discreet) did sire his share of horses that enjoyed a distance of ground—the full-siblings Personal Ensign and Personal Flag (by Private Account) were certainly up to the classic distance standard, and Personal Ensign’s son Miner’s Mark (by Mr. Prospector) won the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), while Our Emblem (a full-brother to Miner’s Mark) sired Kentucky Derby (G1)/Preakness (G1) winner and champion 3-year-old colt War Emblem.
Although Pretty Discreet’s damsire Believe It is a son of In Reality (not known as a classic line), he did win the Wood Memorial (G1) going two turns and was a respectable third in the Kentucky Derby to Affirmed and Alydar. The fact that Believe It was also the damsire of near-Triple Crown winner Real Quiet (lost the Belmont by a nose after winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness) shows that Believe It passes forward a great deal more stamina than the typical son of In Reality.
This takes us to Discreetly Mine’s sire, Mineshaft, who was American Horse of the Year at age 4 after spending the majority of his 3-year-old season racing on the turf in England and France with limited success. At 4, Mineshaft accounted for classic distance prestige events like the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1, 10 furlongs) and Suburban (G1, 10 furlongs), while also racking up wins in the Pimlico Special (G1, 9 1/2 furlongs) and Woodward (G1, 9 furlongs).
Considering that he started his career with a $100,000 stud fee and now stands for $20,000, one could rate Mineshaft a disappointment but not a flop (especially considering the wide-spread drop in stud fees the past two seasons). He is genetically loaded (by A.P. Indy/his Mr. Prospector dam was a G1 winner and all five of her foals were stakes winners), and his full sister Tomisue’s Delight was not only a multiple G1 winner in New York but is a G1 producer herself (dam of Mr. Sidney).
Very often it takes a crafty mating to unlock the potential of a stallion, and we could very well have a breakthrough runner for Mineshaft in the form of Discreetly Mine. I mentioned the Grade 1-winning full siblings Personal Ensign (undefeated champion) and Personal Flag (Suburban). They were out of a mare by Hoist the Flag, and Personal Ensign produced three top runners (Miner’s Mark, Our Emblem, and Traditionally) by Mr. Prospector. Mineshaft’s first two dams are by none other than Mr. Prospector and Hoist the Flag.
Given the fact that A.P. Indy (sire of Mineshaft) brings in the reinforcing genes of War Admiral, La Troienne, and Buckpasser, and the fact that Hoist the Flag is out of a mare by War Admiral, you can see that Discreetly Mine’s lineage replicates many of the Phipps/Claiborne pedigrees of the 1970s and ‘80s, stacking the genes of La Troienne, War Admiral, and their house stallions like Mr. Prospector, Hoist the Flag, Bold Ruler, Secretariat, and Believe It with remarkable success.
Discreetly Mine picks up balanced inbreeding to Tom Rolfe (through a son and a daughter) in the bargain, while Mineshaft also gets reinforcement of his inbreeding to the full sisters Glamour and So Chic (from the Baby League branch of the La Troienne family) via Private Account (a great-grandson of Glamour).
A mare like Pretty Discreet seems to have the genetic ability to make virtually any stallion look good, although this propensity for quality all begins with a good foundation in family and inbreeding to two daughters of Buckpasser, which reinforces the La Troienne/War Admiral inbreeding already found in the pedigrees of Private Account and Mineshaft.
Thus, we’ll continue to follow Discreetly Mine’s development as a racehorse and stallion prospect this spring with great interest. The genetic potential for achievement in distance events is obviously there, and a classic win or placing is within the realm of possibility.
Edwin Anthony was the staff pedigree consultant at Three Chimneys Farm for six years and has penned dozens of articles on pedigree research. He also published The American Thoroughbred (Volume I) in 2008 which can be ordered via the ad link on this web page or through his website at www.thoroughbredadvisor.com.
Tags: Balljumper, bloodstock, Chieftan, Cicada, Dark Mirage, Discreetly Mine, dublin, Edwin Anthony, El Prado, elusive quality, First Landing, Frizette, henrythenavigator, Hero's Honor, Hill Prince, Indian Summer, Java Gold, Jim Beam, La Troienne, medaglia d'oro, Mineshaft, Paulick Report, Pretty Discreet, Private Account, Rachel Alexandra, Ray Paulick, roar, Sea Hero, Speightstown, Sword Dancer, thoroughbred, Tom Rolfe, War Relic
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Friday, February 26th, 2010
The Paulick Report is pleased to once again offer the pedigree insights of Edwin Anthony in the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Ed has lifelong experience in the Thoroughbred industry, has practical experience planning matings for his family’s stable and formerly as a pedigree adviser to Three Chimneys Farm. His perspective is straightforward and refreshingly opinionated, and I advise anyone interested in Thoroughbred pedigrees to pick up a copy of his book, “The American Thoroughbred (Volume One)”—available for purchase here.
In this first of a series of articles, he looks at the pedigree of Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth winner Eskendereya. – Ray Paulick
ESKENDEREYA (Giant’s Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew)
By Edwin Anthony
I wrote a series of eight pedigree profiles for horses on the “Triple Crown trail” starting about this time last year, and recent Fountain of Youth (G2) winner Eskendereya will serve as the first horse in our series this season. It’s interesting to look back at the horses we profiled last year (Friesan Fire, Quality Road, Pioneerof the Nile, Dunkirk, I Want Revenge, Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy, Rachel Alexandra) to see how they fared.
Quality Road is obviously a top horse (he missed the Triple Crown with quarter cracks), while Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile were each able to place in one classic race, and I wrote a token piece about Rachel Alexandra because she looked like a very special filly, even though she had not won anything more than a G2 race at that stage. Only a fortune teller could have predicted Rachel Alexandra’s Horse of the Year campaign after changing hands or the rapid ascension of Birdstone (sire of longshot classic winners Mine That Bird and Summer Bird) as a major classic influence.
Even though I have studied Thoroughbred pedigrees for going on 25 years, no one can get around the folly of bad luck, injuries in training, or the fact that many horses look dominant going nine furlongs (a mile-and-an-eighth) but simply aren’t up to the demanding task of running classic distances at a competitive speed.
That’s the mystery of stamina and genetics that we’re constantly trying to figure out. Of course, even a horse that is capable of competing at classic distances still needs to put out the effort, and sometimes horses have off-days just like people.
If nothing else, we strive to learn about the strengths and limitations of the stallions and ancestors under discussion and hope to come out smarter on the other side. At the very least, we want to learn what strategies are working in pedigrees, even if some of them aren’t up to the classic standard. Who are the soundest horses, where is the stamina coming from, and what ancestors are best to inbreed to? These are the answers we’re looking for.
Pedigree analysts (like myself) try to identify patterns in graded stakes results as a way of predicting the future. Given that the Storm Cat line has been a poor source of classic winners, then you probably wouldn’t want to lean heavily on Storm Cat’s sons (or stallions out of Storm Cat mares) in your stallion recommendations for breeders that want to breed for the classics. The Storm Cat line hasn’t had a winner of a Triple Crown race since Tabasco Cat in 1994, although Bluegrass Cat was second in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont, and Travers in 2006. You should note that Bluegrass Cat is out of a mare by classic influence A.P. Indy and his dam is heavily inbred to the foundation mare La Troienne, including being from the Numbered Account (champion 2YO filly by Buckpasser) branch of that important family.
So, while the Storm Cat line is dominant in 2-year-old racing and in races contested at distances of 9 furlongs or shorter, it does not appear capable of producing classic types, unless there is a LOT of help on the dam side of the equation. Of course, when you start to speak in these kinds of absolutes, a special horse can come along and provide us with the exception to the rule.
Storm Cat’s son Giant’s Causeway was a tough campaigner in Europe out of a good racemare by Rahy, with a second dam by English Derby winner and classic influence Roberto. He was undeniably consistent and high class, winning a series of Group 1 races at more than a mile. In his final start, he gave classic distance specialist Tiznow a real run for his money in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, that being his only start on dirt. So, Giant’s Causeway was sound, very fast, and capable of competing with top horses at the American classic distance of 10 furlongs (a mile-and-a-quarter). This makes him an exception among sons of Storm Cat, as most of his sons that have found any measure of success at stud were much better at a mile or less and have passed on this penchant for speed among their progeny.
Giant’s Causeway has already sired Grade 1 winners in America over 10 furlongs like Heatseeker (Santa Anita Handicap), Frost Giant (Suburban), and Red Giant (NWR, Clement L. Hirsch Memorial Turf Championship), so you can see that if there is a son of Storm Cat capable of siring an American classic winner, then Giant’s Causeway is probably the one.
The runaway win by Eskendereya (by Giant’s Causeway) in the Fountain of Youth (G2) was more than visually impressive. You could see that the horse really relished the opportunity to go two turns, and he is now 3 for 3 on the dirt, his only losses coming in his first start (a maiden event on turf at Saratoga) and a poor effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), contested over the synthetic surface at Santa Anita. He was reported to have a troubled trip in that race as well.
I have often thought that a true classic type horse is able to simply get into a steady gallop and carve out “12’s,” which is to say that he can consistently complete each furlong of a race in 12 seconds. It becomes increasingly difficult to do with each furlong, as the muscles begin to tire, and Secretariat’s world record time of 2:24 in the 1973 Belmont (over 12 furlongs) is the best example of a horse being able to accomplish this feat over such a distance. It’s not about an explosive move or “turn of foot” with classic horses; it’s steady horsepower over a distance. Classic horses “stay” (as the Europeans like to say), while horses more suited to shorter distances simply run out of gas, unable to maintain a steady stream of “12’s” on the toteboard teletimer.
This is exactly what Eskendereya did to the field in the Fountain of Youth (G2)—he galloped them into submission. After taking over after a half-mile in a soft 47.92, he completed six furlongs in 1:12.41, a mile in 1:36.54, with a final time for nine furlongs of 1:48.87, echoing the many 12-second furlongs before the last one. So, like several other sons of Giant’s Causeway, Eskendereya looks capable of running a distance of ground as far as 10 furlongs at a competitive rate of speed. Let’s look at the bottom side of his pedigree to check for more stamina.
Eskendereya’s damsire, Seattle Slew, won the Triple Crown and has been a very successful classic influence, with descendants like A.P. Indy (Belmont, Breeders’ Cup Classic), Bernardini (Preakness, Travers), Cigar (Breeders’ Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup), Lemon Drop Kid (Belmont, Travers), Mineshaft (Jockey Club Gold Cup, Suburban), and Slew o’ Gold (Jockey Club Gold Cup twice) serving as notable examples.
Alydar (second in all 3 Triple Crown races to Affirmed) is the sire of Eskendereya’s second dam, and beyond the fact that he sired two Kentucky Derby winners (Alysheba and Strike the Gold) and a Belmont winner (Easy Goer), Horse of the Year Point Given (Preakness, Belmont, Travers) was produced by a mare by champion Turkoman, he being a son of Alydar.
We know that inbreeding to the family of Almahmoud (second dam of both Halo and Northern Dancer) has been quite successful, and Giant’s Causeway is a very good example of this, as Storm Cat is a grandson of Northern Dancer and Rahy (his damsire) is out of a mare by Halo. The pedigree of Eskendereya shows why a six-generation computer program is a good investment, as his third dam carries intensive inbreeding to the Almahmoud family as well. His third dam is by Northern Dancer himself (giving Eskendereya “balanced” inbreeding to Northern Dancer—through a son and a daughter), and while his fourth dam was sired by the stout stamina influence Ribot (winner of the 12-furlong “Arc” twice) his fifth dam is actually the mare Cosmah, she being the dam of Halo and a daughter of Almahmoud. Thus, Eskendereya is not only inbred to Northern Dancer through a son and a daughter, he is inbred to Halo’s dam, Cosmah, 6 x 5 and carries four total crosses of Almahmoud.
As the ancestors Northern Dancer, Halo, and their granddam Almahmoud get further back in pedigrees, this reinforcement strategy of crossing horses inbred to Almahmoud should continue to find success and revive their influence in classic pedigrees. My parents bred and raced Preakness winner Pine Bluff (inbred 4 x 4 to Almahmoud), and I have noticed him working well with reinforcement of Almahmoud’s genes, crossing successfully with stallions like More Than Ready (by Southern Halo—closely inbred to Almahmoud), Menifee (by Harlan—closely inbred to Almahmoud), and Jules (from the Northern Dancer family and carrying Halo in his pedigree). So, it seems to be a strategy that is paying dividends with stallions and mares already carrying inbreeding to Almahmoud.
Given the fact that Giant’s Causeway has already proven capable of siring runners that excel at classic distances, and the fact that Eskendereya carries a number of other classic influences in his pedigree (Seattle Slew, Alydar, Ribot, and intensive inbreeding to the influential Almahmoud family), I’d say that his classic prospects look very bright indeed. His clear preference for dirt racing and ability to string together one 12 second furlong after another only boosts his stock, in my opinion. If Eskenereya can arrive in Louisville with a solid Florida Derby (G1) effort under his belt, he should be a very strong contender.
Edwin Anthony was the staff pedigree consultant at Three Chimneys Farm for six years and has penned dozens of articles on pedigree research. He also published The American Thoroughbred (Volume I) in 2008, which can be ordered via the banner ad link on this web page or on his web site at www.thoroughbredadvisor.com.
Tags: A. P. Indy, affirmed, Aldebaran Light, alydar, Alysheba, belmont, Bernardini, Bluegrass Cat, breeders' cup classic, breeders' cup juvenile, Chocolate Candy, cigar, Clement L. Hirsch, dubai world cup, dunkirk, Easy Goer, Edwin Anthony, Edwin Anthony Pedigree Report, English Derby, Eskendereya, fasig-tipton, Fountain of Youth, Friesan Fire, Frost Giant, giant's causeway, Heatseeker, I Want Revenge, jockey club gold cup, kentucky derby, Lemon Drop Kid, mine that bird, Mineshaft, Northern Dancer, Papa Clem, Paulick Report, Pioneerof The Nile, Point Given, preakness, Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra, Rahy, Ray Paulick, red giant, santa anita handicap, seattle slew, Slew o' Gold, storm cat, Strike the Gold, Suburban, The American Thoroughbred, three chimneys farm, tiznow, travers, Turkoman
Posted in Edwin Anthony Pedigree Report | 9 Comments »
Wednesday, April 29th, 2009
Pedigree consultant and author Edwin Anthony examines the bloodlines of Rachel Alexandra, the heavy pre-race favorite for Friday’s Kentucky Oaks, in his final analysis in a series of articles written exclusively for the Paulick Report.
Anthony previously looked at leading candidates for the Kentucky Derby: Louisiana Derby winner Friesan Fire, Florida Derby winner Quality Road, Santa Anita Derby winner Pioneerof the Nile, Florida Derby runner-up Dunkirk, Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge, Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem, and Santa Anita Derby runner-up Chocolate Candy.
RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d’oro—Lotta Kim, by Roar)
By Edwin Anthony
Every horse race has a winner; that’s a fact. And just because a horse wins an otherwise important race, that does not make that horse particularly special, other than it may have been the best (that day) of an average field of Thoroughbreds. Greatness must be earned—gauged against the clock, measured against the history books. There must be dominance and consistency, across state borders and time zones, over varying track conditions and against the best competition available. When these conditions are met, then a discussion of history and greatness can begin.
It is too early to call Rachel Alexandra great; she hasn’t even won a G1 race yet, much less run in one. But any serious fan of Thoroughbred racing has chill bumps in anticipation of the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and the rest of her 2009 campaign. Having seen her races in the Golden Rod (G2, new stakes record), Martha Washington Stakes (in time a second faster than Old Fashioned’s winning time in the Southwest Stakes), Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), and Fantasy (G2), all of which she won with devastating ease, we know that this filly has very serious talent.
Will Rachel Alexandra ever race against males? Perhaps. She looks a lot more like a colt than a filly, and her imposing frame makes her seem like the kind of filly that wouldn’t be intimidated by colts. Her front-running style would also make it easy for her to stay out of trouble, and she could simply run them off their feet (like Winning Colors or Lady’s Secret), which is a distinct possibility, given the times of her races. You can’t blame her owners for wanting to pick off the important filly races that are at their mercy in the immediate future, however, as those races are very prestigious in their own right and very difficult to win under any circumstances.
But, then, all of that is conjecture. Let’s discuss things that are a little more based in fact. Where does Rachel Alexandra’s talent come from? We should take a closer look at her pedigree, in search of some clues.
The race record of Medaglia d’Oro (her sire) is fairly fresh in our minds, as Rachel Alexandra is from his first crop. There were his wins in the Whitney (G1), Travers (G1), Donn Handicap (G1), Oaklawn Handicap (G2), Strub Stakes (G2), San Felipe (G2), and Jim Dandy (G2)—he certainly liked Saratoga—as well as solid second place finishes in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1, twice), Belmont (G1), Dubai World Cup (G1), Pacific Classic (G1), and Wood Memorial (G1). So, he was very fast and very consistent, always part of the exacta in important races, it seemed (he was first or second in 15 of his 17 starts).
El Prado, sire of Medaglia d’Oro, was champion 2-year-old colt in Ireland and has a top-drawer pedigree, being a son of the great stallion Sadler’s Wells from a classic-winning dam (Irish 1000 Guineas) by Sir Ivor from a mare by Tom Fool. His family is very deep, having previously yielded stallions like Drone (damsire of Kentucky Derby winners Grindstone and Charismatic), Dunce, Notebook (damsire of 2009 Dubai World Cup winner Well Armed), and Sir Wimborne. His dam also carries inbreeding to Sir Ivor’s family via the three-quarter siblings Menow and Athenia (second dam of Sir Ivor).
Medaglia d’Oro’s dam side has some quality, although it is not as obvious as in the case of his sire, El Prado. His dam was a stakes winner of five races, although not of particularly high quality. You have to go back to his third dam to find another graded stakes winner (Sapling-G1 winner Travelling Music) but his family is better than it appears. Medaglia d’Oro’s second dam was sired by champion 2-year-old colt Silent Screen, who is from the same family as Medaglia d’Oro (creating inbreeding to the foundation mare Sunday Evening) and it is a deep family indeed. Sunday Evening is part of the great Idle Fancy family that has yielded a number of champions, including Hill Prince (Horse of the Year), First Landing, Cicada, Dark Mirage, Indian Skimmer, and Speightstown, as well as G1 winners like Bluebird, Cherokee Colony, Classy Mirage, Crusader Sword, Daaher, Java Gold, Kennedy Road, Missy’s Mirage, Spun Sugar, Timely Writer, Timely Assertion, and Upper Case. That’s quite a list, and it shows what you can learn if you are simply curious enough to look off the edge of a catalog page.
Bailjumper, the damsire of Medaglia d’Oro, elicits yawns from commercial breeders, but he is closely related to a number of other successful progeny by Damascus from the important Frizette family. Furthermore, Bailjumper was the sire of the extremely sound runner Skip Trial (Haskell—G1, Gulfstream Park Handicap—G1 twice), who in turn sired the equally hickory Skip Away (Horse of the Year). The important thing is that Medaglia d’Oro was a top-class performer, and the potential was always there for him to be a good sire. It doesn’t always work out that way (seldom, in fact), but the potential was there. And the fact that he comes from such sound stock (El Prado and Bailjumper are both known for passing this forward) makes him a sire to watch. Soundness comes from soundness.
Moving to the dam side of Rachel Alexandra’s pedigree, her dam was a very nice racemare, winning the Tiffany Lass Stakes at Fair Grounds, and finishing a credible second in the Golden Rod (G2) at Churchill. Her dam’s sire, Roar, was a winner of the Jim Beam Stakes (G2, now known as the Lane’s End at Turfway) and bred in the purple, being a son of champion Forty Niner from the mare Wild Applause (by Northern Dancer and closely related to Kentucky Derby Sea Hero). Roar’s second dam is Broodmare of the Year Glowing Tribute, she being a daughter of Graustark from one of the most productive branches of the La Troienne family.
Rachel Alexandra’s second dam, Kim’s Blues, is by Cure the Blues, who is from the family of Secretariat and Sir Gaylord, and Rachel Alexandra’s pedigree does in fact carry two crosses of Sir Gaylord, giving us three crosses of the Imperatrice family. Lotta Kim carries 4 x 5 balanced inbreeding to Raise a Native (through a son and a daughter) and 5 x 5 inbreeding to the important mare Pocahontas (through her sons Tom Rolfe and Chieftain), while Kim’s Blues has 4 x 4 balanced inbreeding to Bold Ruler.
El Prado has a similar pedigree to that of Lotta Kim, with balanced inbreeding to Northern Dancer (4 x 4) and Native Dancer (6 x 6), as well as inbreeding to Hail to Reason (6 x 5), Sir Gaylord (5 x 5), Tom Fool (5 x 6), and Turn-to (6 x 6) when they are crossed in Rachel Alexandra’s pedigree. Rachel Alexandra also picks up balanced inbreeding to Ribot (6 x 6,6) through his daughter Social Position and his sons Tom Rolfe and Graustark in Lotta Kim’s pedigree.
The lesson that we can learn from Rachel Alexandra’s lineage is that if you start with a mare than can run some (Kim’s Blues) and start inbreeding to all of these important and well-bred stallions, good things are going to start happening for you. Talent doesn’t fall out of the sky, at least not in Thoroughbreds. If you look closely enough and do your research, you can invariably figure out the source or sources of excellence in a horse’s pedigree. It can skip a generation or two, but it’s always there.
Edwin Anthony was the staff pedigree consultant at Three Chimneys Farm for six years and has penned dozens of articles on pedigree research. He recently published a reference book, The American Thoroughbred (Volume I), which can be ordered by clicking here.
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Tags: Chocolate Candy, dunkirk, Edwin Anthony, Friesan Fire, I Want Revenge, kentucky oaks, lotta kim, medaglia d'oro, Papa Clem, Paulick Report, pedigree analysis, Pioneerof The Nile, Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra, Ray Paulick, roar, the american thoroughbred (volume i), thoroughbred pedigrees
Posted in Edwin Anthony Pedigree Report, kentucky oaks | 2 Comments »
Wednesday, April 22nd, 2009
Pedigree consultant and author Edwin Anthony examines the bloodlines of Chocolate Candy, second to Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby, in the latest installment of the Paulick Report’s series of pedigree profiles of contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby. Previously, Anthony looked at Louisiana Derby winner Friesan Fire, Florida Derby winner Quality Road, Santa Anita Derby winner Pioneerof the Nile, Florida Derby runner-up Dunkirk, Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge, and Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem.
Anthony, who spent six years as the staff pedigree consultant for Three Chimneys Farm and has contributed to numerous publications, is the author of a newly published book, “The American Thoroughbred (Volume I).” Click here to learn more about the book. – Ray Paulick
By Edwin Anthony
CHOCOLATE CANDY (Candy Ride—Crownette, by Seattle Slew)
For those of us in the Thoroughbred breeding industry, including those who analyze and write about its endless array of statistics and pedigree information, the arrival of a new crop of stallions each breeding season is almost as exciting as Christmas morning for a first-grader.
Which stallions will succeed and which ones will fail? Will a stallion live up to its expectations or possibly even exceed them? What bloodlines will cross best with these new studs? Breeders follow the results of the 2-year-old races during the summer and fall, taking note of each maiden winner and stakes horse of the new “freshman sires.” And even if a horse doesn’t get a hot 2-year-old runner, there is the chance that a late bloomer will surface on the way to the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks and make their investments look sound.
Hope springs eternal, and the possibility that a new stud will develop into the next Danzig or Storm Cat tantalizes breeders into taking chances with new stallions that a logical person would probably avoid. A great majority of new stallions fail, with the downside being an investment predictably gone sour and a mare’s produce record tainted by a non-productive stallion. The old argument against using unproven stallions with young, unproven mares is that when things don’t pan out, who is to blame—the mare or the stallion? Actually, the answer is that the breeder is to blame. Lucrative, short-term profits derived from demand for a stallion’s first crop of yearlings do not excuse a poor risk at the expense of your mare.
I hate to sound like I’m preaching, as I have fallen into this trap many times myself—with mares belonging to both me and my clients. The most intelligent course of action is to use stallions that have proven their worth as productive sires over time and stand for a reasonable fee. All stallions go through cold spells, and it is during these lean times that farms will often reduce a useful sire’s fee (or offer foal-shares) and present a good opportunity to do the right thing for your mare.
Of course, some new stallions obviously do succeed, although it is a bit of a guessing game as to exactly which stallions these will be. While certain studs seem to be genetically wired for success, you can breed the best mares in the world to other stallions and be considered lucky to get a maiden winner from the union. And it takes more than one “big horse” to make a stallion, as seasoned breeders are not easily fooled. They will consult a computer’s worth of statistics—the AEI, the CI, percentage of stakes winners to foals, percentage of graded stakes winners, etc. All of these criteria are measured against a standard for the breed, as well as with their contemporaries—other stallions from the same crop.
One of the most interesting things I have observed over the years is that even the stallions that do find long-term success do not always work with the bloodlines that you think they will. Forestry is one of my favorite examples in that he is from the immediate family of Mr. Prospector and had a Breeders’ Cup-winning half-sister by Seeking the Gold (by Mr. Prospector). Upon retiring to stud, Forestry was bred to dozens of mares by Mr. Prospector and Seeking the Gold, and neither of those successful broodmare sires has been a particularly good source of stakes winners for Forestry.
Instead, his success has been more based on connections to Dr. Fager (sire of his second dam), Dr. Fager’s sire Rough’n Tumble (via In Reality), and through the Grey Flight family (via Pleasant Colony, his damsire).
Sometimes, things do pan out, as everyone involved hopes they will. Candy Ride, sire of Kentucky Derby candidate Chocolate Candy (pedigree), was an undefeated winner of three starts each in Argentina and California. He broke the course record in the American Handicap (G2T) and broke the track record in the Pacific Classic (G1) over a very legitimate classic horse in Medaglia D’Oro. Although Candy Ride obviously had some soundness issues, there was no doubt that he was a performer of the very highest caliber.
There was some cause for skepticism when he retired to stud, however, as there have been a number of fantastic racehorses imported from South America that have disappointed as stallions in the U.S. Even sires that have proven tremendously successful in the Southern Hemisphere most often have shown little from American-sired progeny. Candy Ride looks to be proving that he is an exception to the rule, based on his results to date.
If you look at the current Stallion Register, all it shows is that Candy Ride has sired the filly Evita Argentina (winner of the G3 Sorrento Stakes at Del Mar) from 111 foals for a paltry 1% stakes winners (actually less than 1%). Since then, however, Evita Argentina has come back to defeat colts in the San Vicente (G2), and other stakes performers by Candy Ride include Capt. Candyman Can (Hutcheson—G2, Bay Shore—G3, Iroquois—G3), Wynning Ride (second in the Hollywood Starlet—G1), Jack Spratt (stakes winner on the turf at Gulfstream) and of course Chocolate Candy (El Camino Real Derby—G3 and California Derby, with a sold second place finish in the Santa Anita Derby—G1). All of this from mares bred on books standing for $12,500.
Two of Candy Ride’s most prominent runners—Capt. Candyman Can (Storm Creek mare) and Evita Argentina (Forest Wildcat mare)—have resulted from crossing him with Storm Cat. The obvious explanations for this successful combination are twofold—there are an awful lot of Storm Cat-line mares out there, and Storm Cat’s genes effectively serve to add speed to the progeny of a stallion that found most of his success as a runner racing at a distance. Capt. Candyman Can and Evita Argentina are both sprinters, albeit very successful ones.
Chocolate Candy, on the other hand, looks to be a very effective router, which is easily explained by the fact that he’s out of a mare by Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, with a second dam by the strong classic influence Alydar, and a third dam that produced Triple Crown winner Affirmed. So, it looks as if Chocolate Candy should be able to get the distance of classic races, although class is the most important question he has left to answer, not to mention that he’ll have to adapt to a dirt racing surface for the first time in the Kentucky Derby. Those are formidable obstacles, and the odds are stacked somewhat against him. What is not in question, however, is that Candy Ride is succeeding, while many stallions that were bred to much better mares are not (notice his 1.28 Comparable Index).
What about Candy Ride’s pedigree is separating him from the pack and into second place on the second crop sire list by progeny earnings? His sire, Ride the Rails, was a modest racehorse, except for one instance in which he defeated champion Dehere in an allowance race at Gulfstream. His pedigree shows that he is a son of Cryptoclearance, with 4 x 3 inbreeding to the Alablue family and a first dam by the profound stamina influence Herbager. His second dam is actually Alanesian, the dam of the notable stallion Boldnesian (grand-sire of Seattle Slew).
Those are certainly some genes that you can work with. In fact, we see balanced inbreeding to Alanesian (through a son and a daughter) as well as reinforcement of inbreeding to her dam Alablue in the pedigree of Chocolate Candy, as he carries Boldnesian through his first dam by Seattle Slew.
The pedigree of Candy Ride’s dam is even more intriguing, although you have to go back a few generations to find what you’re looking for. Candy Stripes, her sire, needs little introduction to American race fans, as his son Invasor was Horse of the Year, accounting for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and Dubai World Cup (UAE-I) in a stellar career, and another son, Leroidesanimaux, was a top miler in the U. S. and Canada, taking events like the Citation H. (G1) and the Atto Mile (G1) among six graded stakes wins.
What I find most important is the accumulation of stallions from the Lady Josephine family in this mare’s pedigree. Candy Stripes gives us the half-brothers Fair Trial and The Recorder, as well their close relatives Nasrullah, Mahmoud, and Tudor Minstrel. Candy Ride’s second dam brings in Nasrullah, Mahmoud, and Fair Trial again, as well as Tudor Minstrel’s half-brother Cyrus the Great (found in very few notable pedigrees) and Badruddin (most commonly found via My Babu in pedigrees, but through Pronto here). My experience reveals that it is this variety, with many different sources of a great foundation mare, that is very often the difference between success and failure—both on the racetrack and in the breeding shed.
Edwin Anthony was the staff pedigree consultant at Three Chimneys Farm for six years and has penned dozens of articles on pedigree research. He recently published a reference book, The American Thoroughbred (Volume I), which can be ordered by clicking here.
Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report
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Tags: candy ride, Chocolate Candy, Edwin Anthony, kentucky derby, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick, seattle slew, thoroughbred pedigrees
Posted in Edwin Anthony Pedigree Report, Triple Crown preps | 5 Comments »
Wednesday, April 15th, 2009
Pedigree consultant and author Edwin Anthony examines the bloodlines of Papa Clem, winner of Saturday’s Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem, in the latest installment of the Paulick Report’s series of pedigree profiles of contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby. Previously, he looked at Louisiana Derby winner Friesan Fire, Florida Derby winner Quality Road, Santa Anita Derby winner Pioneerof the Nile, Florida Derby runner-up Dunkirk, and Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge.
Anthony, who spent six years as the staff pedigree consultant for Three Chimneys Farm and has contributed to numerous publications, is the author of a newly published book, “The American Thoroughbred (Volume I).” Click here to learn more about the book. – Ray Paulick
By Edwin Anthony
PAPA CLEM (Smart Strike—Miss Houdini, by Belong to Me)
Some truths are so simple that it is sometimes difficult to believe them. And the truth is that, on an overwhelming statistical basis, stakes quality racemares make the best producers of racehorses. Joe Estes (former editor of The Blood-Horse magazine and inventor of the Average-Earnings Index system) wrote about this, and there is a worthwhile book (“The Estes Formula for Breeding Stakes Winners”)published by the Russell Meerdink Company (www.horseinfo.com) that details his theories.
Mr. Estes’ findings seem somewhat obvious, but the proof is in the research and in sample sizes large enough to reveal undeniable facts. In the end, pedigree research is very worthwhile (I certainly believe that), but there is no greater influence on the racing potential of a yearling than the racing record and stud record of its sire and dam.
Of course, we are disappointed when some of our favorite racemares (Winning Colors, Genuine Risk, etc.) turn out to be poor producers or produce few foals, perhaps because of their masculine nature. But for every one of those disappointments, there are quality performers who go on to be important producers like Personal Ensign (dam of several Grade 1 winners and in the pedigree of Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem), Miesque (dam of Kingmambo, Miesque’s Son, etc.), or Glowing Tribute (dam of Kentucky Derby winner Sea Hero and prominent in the pedigree of top sire Elusive Quality). These mares were very high-class racemares and continue to pass on their superiority to future generations. Of course, they inherited their greatness from their own ancestors in a genetic string that weaves its way through the patchwork of the Thoroughbred gene pool.
Personal Ensign drew upon the racing class of great racehorses like Damascus, Numbered Account, Hoist the Flag, and the Argentine mare Dorine, while Miesque was a daughter of the brilliant racehorse Nureyev from a mare by Prove Out, who beat Secretariat. Glowing Tribute’s sire, Graustark, was undefeated before fracturing his leg in the Blue Grass and comes from one of the most influential families in the stud book (Boudoir II). Her dam, Admiring, was a stakes winner and very closely related to the champion racemare Straight Deal.
Of course, that sounds as if I’m leaning on pedigrees (which I am), although this racing brilliance can very often reach back a generation or two and draw upon the influence of a superior ancestor. Thus, it is wise to have as many superior performers close up in a horse’s pedigree as one can afford, and it never hurts for these ancestors to have connections to families with a proven record of classic influence.
Recent Arkansas Derby (G2) winner Papa Clem (click here for his pedigree) has important family connections as well as an impressive string of stakes performances in his favor, both of which make him look like a serious contender for this year’s Triple Crown events. It is easy to dismiss one runner-up effort in a notable race, but when a horse continually knocks on the door, then breaks through with an impressive performance, possibly with a change of equipment or adjustment of running style, expectations must adjust in response.
After a runner-up effort to subsequent Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Pioneerof the Nile in the Robert B. Lewis S. (G2), finishing a length ahead of Wood Memorial (G1) winner I Want Revenge, Papa Clem shipped to New Orleans and ran a credible (if well beaten) second to Friesan Fire in the Louisiana Derby (G2) after setting the pace in the slop. So, he displayed good form against very impressive competition.
Everyone expected Papa Clem to be on or near the pace in the Arkansas Derby, but he instead conceded the lead to speedster Old Fashioned, racing in fifth position early, only to swing out into the stretch and take over the lead in the final sixteenth of a mile. It was discovered that Old Fashioned had injured his leg in the running of the race, although there was no indication that was stopping him during the stretch run. The final time of 1:49 was solid, and the mile split of 1:36 and change was a second faster than the winning times of two mile-long stakes on the same card.
Smart Strike, Papa Clem’s sire, has been the Leading Sire in America two years running, thanks in large part to the exploits of Curlin (Horse of the Year during those years), although when a horse is able to sire 3 G1 winners on the same Belmont card (as he did in October of 2007), there is little point in disputing his dominance. Smart Strike is a son of Mr. Prospector and a half-brother to champion 3-year-old filly Dance Smartly (Breeders’ Cup Distaff), as well as being closely related to the top grass horse and useful stallion Sky Classic. Given the tremendous performance of the Mr. Prospector line in the Triple Crown events, this certainly bodes well for Papa Clem’s chances, especially given his liking for a dirt surface at Oaklawn that has yielded classic winners Curlin, Afleet Alex, and Smarty Jones in recent years.
Smart Strike has been able to sire everything from top sprinters (Fabulous Strike), to long winded turf horses (English Channel), to a classic winner like Curlin. What does the dam side of Papa Clem’s pedigree suggest that we can expect from him in the future?
Miss Houdini, his dam, won the Del Mar Debutante (G1), certainly one of the most important races for 2-year-old fillies in California. This does not necessarily suggest stamina, although she suffered an injury and was perhaps never able to display her true class or distance potential. There is no denying that her sire, Belong to Me, was strictly a sprinter, and certainly has the physical appearance of a sprinter. After an unbelievable beginning to his stud career while standing in New York, in which he sired three winners of G1 races at Saratoga, Belong to Me was relocated to Lane’s End Farm in Kentucky, although one would have to register his stud record as somewhat disappointing since the move. Of course, it would have been next to impossible for him to continue the string of success that he had begun, and breeders’ expectations are lofty when a stallion moves to a high profile farm like Lane’s End.
Despite his sprinter’s physique, Belong to Me did sire Mother Goose (G1) winner Jersey Girl over a distance of ground and 2008 champion turf female Forever Together, who shows no ill effects in significant tests of stamina. Belong to Me seems to be drawing on the influence of his damsire Exclusive Native (sire of Kentucky Derby winners Affirmed and Genuine Risk) and his second dam by classic influence Hail to Reason. This Hail to Reason mare, Straight Deal, was a champion, with no problems negotiating two turns, and she is closely related to the important mare Admiring, mentioned above in connection with Broodmare of the Year Glowing Tribute. Admiring actually shows up in the pedigree of Miss Houdini, via the stallion Magesterial, sire of HER second dam.
So, Miss Houdini is inbred to Hail to Reason through 2 very closely related mares from the Big Hurry (full-sister to champions Bimelech and Black Helen) branch of the La Troienne family. Miss Houdini is out of a mare by champion 2-year-old colt Lord Avie, who was not a particularly good sire, shows up in the pedigree of champion turf female Wait a While (a distance specialist) and carries the classic influences Gallant Man (new world record for a mile-and-a-half in the Belmont Stakes) and Tom Fool (sire of Buckpasser) as the sire of his first two dams. The capable young stallion Stephen Got Even (sire of I Want Revenge and champion 2YO colt Stevie Wonderboy) is from Lord Avie’s family as well.
For you pedigree buffs, there is one other very interesting thing about Papa Clem’s pedigree. Smart Strike carries two crosses of the important stallion Beau Pere in the dam side of his pedigree, he being inbred to the notable foundation mare Brown Bess. The old Australian stallion Carbine was also closely inbred to Brown Bess, and he appears no fewer than nine times in the pedigree of Leading Sire Danzig, seven of those crosses coming via the great stallion Spearmint.
I decided to see if there was a good record of combining Danzig and Beau Pere in pedigrees, thus securing a means of concentrating the influence of Brown Bess. Of course, I found that Smart Strike’s champion half-sister Dance Smartly obviously possesses this combination as she is a daughter of Danzig. But in researching this cross, I found no fewer than 38 G1 winners or otherwise notable breeding animals (the dams of Arch, Distorted Humor, etc.) with the Danzig / Beau Pere combination, including Danehill, Dispute (Kentucky Oaks), Funny Cide (Kentucky Derby, reinforcement), and Sea Hero (Kentucky Derby) as examples. That’s a combination that works.
–Edwin Anthony
Edwin Anthony was the staff pedigree consultant at Three Chimneys Farm for six years and has penned dozens of articles on pedigree research. He recently published a reference book, The American Thoroughbred (Volume I), which can be ordered by clicking here.
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Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report
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Tags: arkansas derby, average-earnings index, belong to me, dunkirk, Edwin Anthony, Edwin Anthony Pedigree Report, Friesan Fire, Horse Racing, I Want Revenge, joe estes, miss houdini, Papa Clem, Paulick Report, Pioneerof The Nile, Quality Road, Ray Paulick, russell meerdink, smart strike, the american thoroughbred (volume i), Thoroughbred breeding, thoroughbred pedigrees
Posted in Edwin Anthony Pedigree Report, Triple Crown preps | 2 Comments »
Wednesday, April 8th, 2009
This is the fifth in a series of articles written by Edwin Anthony examining the pedigrees of leading contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby. Previously, he looked at Louisiana Derby winner Friesan Fire, Florida Derby winner Quality Road, Santa Anita Derby winner Pioneerof the Nile and the talented Dunkirk.
This week, Anthony examines the bloodlines of I Want Revenge, who made a miraculous worst to first finish in the Wood Memorial after severely stumbling out of the gate. Anthony, who spent six years as the staff pedigree consultant for Three Chimneys Farm and has contributed to numerous publications, is the author of a newly published book, “The American Thoroughbred (Volume I).” Click here to learn more about the book. – Brad Cummings
I WANT REVENGE (Stephen Got Even—Meguial, by Roy)
By all indications, Stephen Got Even was a quality racehorse (G2 winner at 3, G1 winner at 4—on dirt) and has a pretty darn good pedigree (by A.P. Indy from a G1 placed Cox’s Ridge mare, next dam is a G3 winner by Blushing Groom). But it seems that demand for his services in the breeding shed have waned somewhat in recent years, gauging by his unbelievably low $7,500 stud fee for 2009. This is somewhat difficult to process, given that we are talking about a horse that had the champion 2YO colt a few years ago (Stevie Wonderboy) and has also sired useful campaigners like Don’t Get Mad (G2, $793,000 in earnings), For All We Know (G2, $292,000), Sweet Vendetta (G2, $224,000), and Steve’s Double (G3, $479,000).
With this kind of capability, it should surprise no one that Stephen Got Even has come up with another tough and genuine racehorse in I Want Revenge, who proved capable of delivering an astonishingly brave effort in winning the Wood Memorial (G1) over the weekend. I’ve never made a complete list of ways that a horse can get into trouble during the running of a race, but I Want Revenge certainly tested the boundaries of what a horse can overcome and still win. Mind you, this wasn’t the 3rd race at River Downs we’re talking about (no offense to my friends in Cincinnati), this was the Wood Memorial—one of the most prestigious races on the racing calendar, against quality horses being forced to the limit in an effort to make it into the Kentucky Derby.
While he displayed speed and an explosive bit of acceleration during the stretch run of the Gotham (G3)—his first race on dirt—I Want Revenge was absolutely left at the start of the Wood Memorial. Only a patient ride by the young but skilled Joe Talamo allowed them to salvage victory from the jaws of defeat and enable the colt to gain valuable traffic experience in the process. One can guess that what transpired Saturday wasn’t exactly what I Want Revenge’s connections had planned, and a disastrous beginning seldom translates into such a rosy outcome. Thus, his ability to overcome such adversity bodes well for his chances in the Kentucky Derby (G1), where a troubled trip is not only probable; it is expected.
I have a bit of personal experience to glean from Stephen Got Even and his damsire, Cox’s Ridge. My family raced Cox’s Ridge, and he was undoubtedly the most sound and consistent racehorse that we have owned during 30+ years of racing. He was an excellent stallion for us (and others), siring forward extraordinary soundness in his progeny. I personally raced an allowance winner named Bullion from Stephen Got Even’s first crop of runners, and he was both sound and a genuinely hard-trying racehorse.
I certainly endorse Stephen Got Even, and all that he seems to need to get a really nice campaigner (or even a G1 winner) is the willingness of a breeder to send him a quality mare. I Want Revenge is certainly a good example of this, given that his dam by Roy placed 2nd in both the Argentine 1000 Guineas (Arg-I) and Argentine Oaks (Arg-I).
It’s not difficult to fall in love with I Want Revenge’s chances of winning a classic race, going by his form line. He broke his maiden at 2 in California, and then lost a photo to subsequent Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Pioneerof the Nile in the CashCall Futurity (G1). He certainly has the jump on his competition prepping on synthetic surfaces, as he has logged two impressive victories on dirt and has already displayed the ability to overcome trouble. What does his pedigree tell us about his chances in the Triple Crown series?
While Stevie Wonderboy did not have the opportunity to run in the classics, he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) impressively and most of Stephen Got Even’s progeny seem to prosper at a distance. His sire, A.P. Indy, is most definitely a classic influence, and Stephen Got Even himself won 2 notable races over 9 furlongs (1 1/8 miles). Cox’s Ridge was capable of racing as far as the classic distance of 1 π miles and sired champions that could win G1 events going as far as 1 ∏ miles. I Want Revenge’s damsire Roy was primarily a sprinter, being a son of Fappiano from a mare by Never Bend. Roy has a high concentration of the Frizette family in his pedigree, carrying 6 crosses, including tracing to her directly in tail-female line. This mixes well with Seattle Slew (sire of A.P.Indy), as he carries Frizette’s daughter Frizeur (dam of Myrtlewood) 2x—neither of these sources being found in the pedigree of Roy. This Seattle Slew / Roy combination (and Frizette concentration) has already been seen in the pedigree of Great Hunter (G1), and now I Want Revenge makes 2 G1 winners bred that way.
We also see the Blushing Groom / Fappiano combination in I Want Revenge’s lineage, which can also be found in the pedigrees of top performers like Awesome Gem (millionaire), Candy Ride (G1, undefeated), First Samurai (G1), Heatseeker (G1), Intangaroo (G1), Lady Joanne (Alabama), 2009 Lane’s End (G2) winner Hold Me Back, 2009 G3 winner The Pamplemousse, and Broken Vow (G2, sire of G1 winners).
Beyond American-bred Roy, the dam side of I Want Revenge’s pedigree has a very South American influence. Fitzcarraldo, the sire of his 2nd dam, was bred in Argentina and raced there, winning a G2 event and finishing among the top 4 in all 3 races that comprise the Triple Crown events in that country. Vervain, the sire of his 3rd dam, was 1st or 2nd in 7 of 8 starts in Europe, and was exported to Argentina to stand at stud.
In attempting to gauge the quality of the Fitzcarraldo / Vervain portion of I Want Revenge’s pedigree, it is interesting to compare it to the family tree of Horse of the Year Invasor. In crossing these 2 pedigrees, we see a daughter of the stallion Cipayo in Invasor’s pedigree, while Fitzcarraldo is a son of Cipayo. A mare named Twins is the 4th dam of Invasor, while a full-sister to Twins named Sigma Septima produced the stallion Stallwood, damsire of Fitzcarraldo. Needless to say, Invasor is closely related to Fitzcarraldo.
The European stamina influence Wild Risk sired the dam of Blushing Groom (grandsire of Invasor), while Wild Risk appears prominently in the pedigree of Vervain. Thus, the 2nd dam of I Want Revenge (a mare named Starry Night) has a pedigree that is very similar to that of Invasor. And given that Invasor was an entirely legitimate racehorse going 1 π miles (Breeders’ Cup Classic, Suburban, Dubai World Cup), this would seem to bode well for I Want Revenge’s chances of getting the Derby distance and possibly winning a classic. At the very least, one has to admire the horse’s toughness. Personally, I hope that breeders will take note of Stephen Got Even’s admirable habit of siring sound campaigners. The industry needs more good mares to visit stallions like him.
–Edwin Anthony
Edwin Anthony was the staff pedigree consultant at Three Chimneys Farm for six years and has penned dozens of articles on pedigree research. He recently published a reference book, The American Thoroughbred (Volume I), which can be ordered via the banner ad link on this this web page.
Tags: a.p. indy, Brad Cummings, Edwin Anthony, gotham Stakes, I Want Revenge, kentucky derby, Meguial, pedigree reports, Stephen Got Even, The American Thoroughbred, Triple Crown, wood memorial
Posted in Edwin Anthony Pedigree Report, Triple Crown preps, kentucky derby | 9 Comments »
Wednesday, April 1st, 2009
This is the fourth in a series of articles written by Edwin Anthony examining the pedigrees of leading contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby. Previously, he looked at Louisiana Derby winner Friesan Fire, Florida Derby winner Quality Road, and Pioneerof the Nile, who goes for his fourth straight win in this Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby.
This week, Anthony examines the bloodlines of Dunkirk, who ran second behind Quality Road in last Saturday’s Florida Derby in just his third career start. Anthony, who spent six years as the staff pedigree consultant for Three Chimneys Farm and has contributed to numerous publications, is the author of a newly published book, “The American Thoroughbred (Volume I).” Click here to learn more about the book. – Ray Paulick
By Edwin Anthony
DUNKIRK (Unbridled’s Song — Secret Status, by A.P. Indy)
America has always been preoccupied with “winners,” so much so that an Olympic silver-medalist might be considered lucky to be welcomed home with a parade, much less expect to see his or her smiling face appear on the cover of a Wheaties box. It’s certainly the same story in racing Thoroughbreds, where a horse that runs a credible or even a close second in an important race is basically relegated to “also-ran” status. Racing historians know better this time of year.
Despite their G1 status, races like the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass, and other key races like the Arkansas Derby and Louisiana Derby are indeed PREP races for the Triple Crown. The history books are full of cases in which horses run a solid second in one of these races and either win the Derby or become the dominant horse in the Triple Crown altogether. You never know what tricks a canny and experienced trainer might have up their sleeves or how tightly wound their horses are for these races. One should never mistake the fact that their eyes are focused intently on the prizes that await in May and June, with training schedules and races planned months in advance to arrive in peak form the week of the Kentucky Derby.
Secretariat had a piece of straw infecting his cheek, causing him to run a dull race in the Wood Memorial. Of course, he went on win the 1973 Triple Crown, setting a track record in each race. Thunder Gulch and Swale had been the best horses in Florida in their respective years, but each ran a terrible race at Keeneland and were somewhat discounted, although both went on to win the Kentucky Derby and Belmont and be named champion 3-year-old colt. Other horses like Real Quiet (second, Santa Anita Derby), Funny Cide (second, Wood Memorial), Go for Gin (second, Wood Memorial), and Silver Charm (second, Santa Anita Derby), didn’t really need an excuse. These entrants had run very respectable prep races and perhaps didn’t have the right pace scenario or weren’t quite fit enough to get the job done on the day in question. But they did prove to be the best horses when experience mattered and the distance questions asked became a true test of stamina.
Each horse we discuss in this column certainly has its strengths and weaknesses. Any vulnerability is likely to be exposed in a big field, where horses are certain to get bumped, checked, or cut off. And if a horse is speedy enough to draw clear of the melee of runners traveling with the pack and run with the pacemakers, they are not likely to have a relaxing time “on the engine,” either. The ideal horse for the classics has some tactical ability and is not bothered by the roaring crowds or the excitement of running through a rain-shower of dirt clods. In fact, all that is really required, assuming they have the quality to get the job done, is for them to run their “A” race. Most horses simply can’t handle the competitive nature of the occasion or don’t get the distance. In the end, it’s the horses that are able to simply maintain a steady, forward momentum that win the day. In Europe, the best classic horses are called “stayers,” as they gallop at a continuous clip to the wire, outlasting their peers.
Most fans are used to seeing their favorite 3-year-olds display visually-impressive, explosive moves to win prep races and expect to see similar efforts in the Triple Crown races. That is a bit like comparing a 440-yard dash at a track meet to perhaps an 880-yard race. A half-mile race (880-yards) for humans is an exhausting event, as it is too short of a race to settle into a relaxing pace and too long for true sprinters to maintain their unrelenting pace. It is the same with horses, where equine athletes built to go six to nine furlongs simply can’t stretch their abilities effectively beyond that distance. Their muscle structure and physical limitations simply won’t allow them to.
On the other end of the spectrum, you have horses like DUNKIRK (click here for his pedigree), who are bred to excel at classic distances. Their form is supposed to improve as the distances get longer, as they don’t really lengthen their stride until the first mile of a race has already been run. Many fans have difficultly envisioning the running of a classic race unfolding, expecting to see a re-run of what happened in the prep races. The factors that they discount in the process are numerous: 1) Horses become more fit and can be expected to deliver improved efforts/peak performance in the races that their trainers have been pointing for; 2) The distances have increased substantially, changing the landscape and tactics of the challenge at hand; 3) The best horses from each region of the country and even other countries are meeting to decide who the best horses are — many horses are simply outclassed at this level; 4) Horses with no dirt track experience or that don’t show an affinity for the track in question (Churchill, Pimlico, Belmont) are at a distinct disadvantage, etc.
There is little doubt that Dunkirk should be able to get the 1 ¼ miles of the Kentucky Derby. I’ve never been a particularly big fan of his sire, Unbridled’s Song, as his progeny are brilliant but not particularly sound animals—and a horse needs to be sound to carry the weight and get the distance in the Triple Crown events. Despite public opinion (especially at the yearling sales), I don’t think that Unbridled’s Song has really proven to be a good source of classic runners. While he is a son of Unbridled (an undeniable classic influence), the best runners by Unbridled’s Song have prospered more in the mile to 1 1/8-mile (nine-furlong) range. Perhaps his better runners simply don’t hang around long enough to run in the classic races, but the proof is in the results, or lack of results.
Dunkirk did not race at 2, and that is a piece of history that he would have to make if he were to win the Derby. As things stand, he may not even have enough graded stakes earnings to make it into the starting gate, although I think that might be a shame, as he looks to have the class and stamina, if not the experience, to have an impact on the classics.
Dunkirk’s dam, Secret Status, won the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Mother Goose (G1), both of which are considered filly classics. Since she also placed in both the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1, third) and Alabama (G1, second), there seems little doubt that she was the best “staying” filly of her crop in America. Secret Status is a daughter of A.P. Indy, who was not only able to stay the distance (Belmont/Breeders’ Cup Classic winner) but has been a consistent sire of classic-distance runners. Likewise, the dam of Secret Status was sired by the tremendous classic influence Alydar — sire of Kentucky Derby winners Alysheba and Strike the Gold, as well as Belmont winner Easy Goer. Alydar’s name is also found in the pedigrees of Preakness/Belmont winner Point Given, filly classic winners Lakeway (Mother Goose) and Ajina (Coaching Club American Oaks, Mother Goose), Travers (G1) winner Colonel John and Alabama (G1) winner November Snow.
The Mr. Prospector/Alydar combination found in the pedigree of Dunkirk is also seen in the lineage of Point Given (Horse of the Year), Anees (champion 2-year-old colt), Pine Island (Alabama), and at least 10 other G1 winners. I am also a big advocate of combining the similarly-bred stallions Unbridled and Quiet American with Seattle Slew and his son A.P. Indy in pedigrees. Examples of this combination include Bernardini (Preakness, champion 3-year-old colt), Midshipman (champion 2-year-old colt), Country Star (G1), First Defence (G1), Sky Diva (G1), and Tapit (G1, sire of G1 winners).
With two impressive wins at Gulfstream and a very solid second in the Florida Derby (G1) to his credit, I believe that Dunkirk has the class to impact the running of this year’s Triple Crown races. I also believe the distance of those races should be well within his scope. But the lack of experience and lack of demonstrated soundness we see in his three past performances makes one wonder if he’s the super-horse that Big Brown nearly proved to be last year (coming into the Derby off of only three starts). The fact that Dunkirk’s mother was a classic winner by A.P. Indy with a dam by Alydar may be enough to stack the cards in his favor. Let’s hope for entertainment’s sake (and that of the sport) that he’s a late bloomer, with the ability to substantiate his $3.7 million price tag and prove Unbridled’s Song to be a classic sire after all. We don’t need horses like Dunkirk standing on the sidelines.
Edwin Anthony was the staff pedigree consultant at Three Chimneys Farm for six years and has penned dozens of articles on pedigree research. He recently authored the reference book, The American Thoroughbred (Volume I). Click here to learn more and order your copy today
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Tags: a.p. indy, alydar, anthony's anthony's pedigree report, dunkirk, Edwin Anthony, Florida Derby, kentucky derby, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick, secret status, The American Thoroughbred, Triple Crown, unbridled's song
Posted in Edwin Anthony Pedigree Report, Triple Crown preps, kentucky derby | 3 Comments »
Wednesday, March 25th, 2009
Following is the third in a series of articles written by Edwin Anthony examining the pedigrees of leading contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby. Previously, he looked at Louisiana Derby winner Friesan Fire and Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth winner Quality Road (who runs in this Saturday’s Florida Derby).
This week, Anthony examines the bloodlines of West Coast-based Pioneerof the Nile, who has won his last three starts, most recently the San Felipe at Santa Anita. Anthony, who spent six years as the staff pedigree consultant for Three Chimneys Farm and has contributed to numerous publications, is the author of a newly published book, “The American Thoroughbred (Volume I).” Click here to learn more about the book. – Ray Paulick
By Edwin Anthony
PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker—Star of Goshen, by Lord At War)
There is really no quicker pathway to success in a Thoroughbred breeding program than to utilize three-time-proven axioms in the selection of breeding stock: 1. Use a stallion with a very high quality pedigree (and with a proven track record if possible). 2. Breed this stallion to a stakes-winning mare or one that is at least closely related to high-class performers. 3. Utilize inbreeding and crossing patterns that have repeatedly been found in the pedigrees of important performers.
If a breeder is able to apply these simple concepts on a “numbers” basis, he or she is almost guaranteed to achieve some level of success, assuming he or she has access to good land and competent trainers.
Ahmed Zayat certainly made a big splash on the American sales and racing scene when he started spending large sums of money on yearlings a few years ago. And he most definitely made a fortuitous purchase in the form of the stakes-winning mare Star of Goshen, who was carrying G1 winner Pioneerof the Nile at the time of the private transaction. His interest in the mare sprang from the fact that he already owned the colt Forefathers out of Star of Goshen, and he was showing unusual ability on the track (he was second in the G2 Jerome Handicap and G2 Swale Stakes). Zayat had paid a hefty sum for that colt ($680,000), so you can imagine the numbers involved in the purchase of his dam, considering that she was carrying a foal by a $100,000 stallion (Empire Maker).
Although Cobra Farm (Gary and Betty Biszantz) deserve credit for the mating that produced Pioneerof the Nile, Mr. Zayat owned Star of Goshen when Pioneerof the Nile was foaled and is listed as the colt’s official breeder. And thus this consistent colt has become the first stakes winner for the Zayat Stable’s breeding program. Considering the investment that Mr. Zayat has made to date, we are likely to see many more stakes winners bred and raced in his name over the years. He certainly has discovered the right formula, as was spelled out in the opening paragraph.
Star of Goshen had an abbreviated racing career, but she displayed brilliance on at least one occasion—when she simply ran away with the La Troienne Stakes at Churchill Downs. One would have to classify her as a classy sprinter, and the fact that she was a half-sister to the very good sprinter/miler Powis Castle (Malibu Stakes—G2) confirms the tendency toward speed in her family.
This speed displayed by Star of Goshen is balanced with the fact that her sire, Lord at War, won the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) at 1 π miles and sired a number of important runners at a distance. In addition, Lord At War is the damsire of important classic-distance performers like War Emblem (Kentucky Derby, Preakness), Raven’s Pass (Breeders’ Cup Classic), and E Dubai (Suburban Handicap). One should also note that all three of these important runners out of mares by Lord At War (War Emblem, Raven’s Pass, and E Dubai) were sired by Mr. Prospector or by stallions from his sire line. Pioneerof the Nile falls into this pattern as well, being sired by a grandson of Fappiano (Mr. Prospector).
Star of Goshen’s dam was sired by Key to the Kingdom, a colt bred like Triple Crown winner Secretariat (Bold Ruler/Princequillo combination) who was a half-brother to champions Key to the Mint (champion 3-year-old colt) and Fort Marcy (co-Horse of the Year, a gelding)—neither of which had any problem negotiating 10 furlongs or further. Key to the Kingdom’s best runner as a sire was the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) winner Great Communicator (a gelding), who not only excelled at 1 ∏ miles but won a running of the 1 ≤-mile San Juan Capistrano (G1) to boot. So, you can see that while Star of Goshen displayed speed, she may have been able to negotiate a distance of ground if her racing career had not been cut short by injuries (she won 3 of 5 starts).
Empire Maker certainly hasn’t cut short Pioneerof the Nile’s ability to run two turns. He was, of course, a winner of the 12-furlong Belmont Stakes (G1) himself, and chalked up wins in the nine-furlong Florida Derby (G1) and nine-furlong Wood Memorial (G1, over Funny Cide) with style. His sire, Unbridled, was named champion 3-year-old colt after winning the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), leaving little doubt that he was a classic horse. And when Unbridled went to stud, he certainly stamped himself as a classic influence, with runners like Banshee Breeze (champion 3-year-old filly, Coaching Club American Oaks, etc.), Smuggler (champion 3-year-old filly, Coaching Club American Oaks, etc.), Grindstone (Kentucky Derby), Red Bullet (Preakness), Unshaded (Travers), Unbridled’s Song (Florida Derby), and many other distance specialists to his credit.
All that Empire Maker inherited in the name of class and stamina from Unbridled was reinforced in the pedigree of Empire Maker’s dam, Toussaud. She was a G1 winner on turf in California, and in addition to Empire Maker, produced Arlington Million (G1T) winner Chester House (a very good sire who died young), Honest Lady (a G1 winner and the dam of Saratoga G1 winner First Defence), Cheselling (G1T), and Decarchy (G2T, G1T-placed). Toussaud was named Broodmare of the Year in 2002 (and that was BEFORE Empire Maker became a classic winner).
Empire Maker retired with a $100,000 stud fee and although he stands at $75,000 now, that is more of a product of the economy than his prospects of success. With runners like Country Star (2 G1 wins), Mushka (G2), Acoma (G2), and of course Pioneerof the Nile (G1) to his credit in two crops, he is justifying the confidence of breeders, which is reflected in his extremely high mare Comparable Index (3.94), which ranks him higher in that category than A.P. Indy (3.73), Giant’s Causeway (3.48), Unbridled’s Song (2.62), and much higher than 2007 and 2008’s Leading Sire Smart Strike (1.95). (Comparable Index ranks the relative producing abilities of mares to whom he’s been bred.)
Pioneerof the Nile does not carry much inbreeding within the first six generations of his pedigree, as we see only two sons of Bold Ruler (inbred 6 x 4 to Bold Ruler) and three crosses of Native Dancer (6,6 x 5) present. The most interesting things about Pioneerof the Nile’s pedigree stem from connections to the families of the important stallions In Reality and Alibhai. Empire Maker is inbred 4 x 3 to In Reality, who traces to the foundation mare Clonaslee. Pioneerof the Nile traces directly to Clonaslee, coming from the Dog Blessed (1942, by Bull Dog) branch of the family that produced Indian Charlie (G1) and Prince Blessed (in the pedigrees of Tiznow and Unbridled’s Song). The Preakness (G1) winners Deputed Testamony and Tank’s Prospect also hail from the Clonaslee family.
Empire Maker traces to the mare Teresina, she being the dam of the important stallion Alibhai. Alibhai appears in the pedigree of Star of Goshen as the damsire of the stallion Kanumera, a horse closely related to Preakness (G1) winner Elocutionist. Thus, while Pioneerof the Nile shows little inbreeding of note close-up, he does carry connections and linebreeding to two notable foundation mares.
With wins in the CashCall Futurity (G1), Robert B. Lewis (G2), and San Felipe (G2), already to his credit on synthetic surfaces, the million-dollar question remains whether or not Pioneerof the Nile can handle a conventional dirt surface. With his next start scheduled to be in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) also on a synthetic surface, interested parties will have to watch his training leading up to the Kentucky Derby (G1) with a keen eye. In closing, I would like to salute the Lavin family in Goshen, Kentucky who bred Castle Eight and Star of Goshen, the first two dams of Pioneerof the Nile—they laid the foundation for a top class performer to emerge and always do a great job of raising racehorses at their Longfield Farm.
Edwin Anthony was the staff pedigree consultant at Three Chimneys Farm for six years and has penned dozens of articles on pedigree research. He recently published the reference book, The American Thoroughbred (Volume I). Click here to learn more and order your copy today
Tags: ahmed zayat, cobra farm, Edwin Anthony, empire maker, Friesan Fire, gary biszantz, Horse Racing, kentucky derby, longfield farm, lord at war, Paulick Report, Pioneerof The Nile, Quality Road, Ray Paulick, star of goshen, The American Thoroughbred, thoroughbred pedigrees, Triple Crown
Posted in Edwin Anthony Pedigree Report | 1 Comment »
Wednesday, March 25th, 2009
First, thanks to all of you who have so generously given to our second periodic PBS knock-off style fundraiser minus the old British actors and an episode of Antique Road Show. Especially in a tough economic climate, your support makes the difference in keeping our subscription free and allows continuing enhancements. It’s Day Three — hump day — and I hope we can count on your support. To put things into perspective, a subscription to Sports Illustrated costs $50, the Bloodhorse $100 and an annual online DRF plan for $1,000. A twice-weekly venti cup of mocha latte frappacino with a double pump of hoopla costs at least $400 at Starbucks. I hope you use this as a guide when you are considering the value the Paulick Report gives you each day.
And now back to our regularly scheduled programming…
As Bob Evans has said many times, “Everybody is somebody at Bob Evans Farm”…I’m sorry, wrong Bob. Churchill Bob — that is — has said in reference to the Kentucky Derby and Churchill Downs, “We are horse racing”. While that might be hard to for the rest of the industry, in many ways he is right. To the average American, the Kentucky Derby is the beginning, middle and end of the racing calendar.
It is this immense popularity that leads owners, breeders, industry professionals, columnists, handicappers, bloggers and fans to immerse themselves in everything Derby between late February and the first Saturday in May. And that is why I have worked hard to create unique content for our Paulick Report readers throughout the Derby season.
Bringing 33 writers, handicappers and bloggers together to create the Paulick Derby Index — essentially an AP Poll for the run up to the Derby has been a formidable effort, but worth every minute of it. We are blessed to have some of the top players in the industry contribute their world class expertise. The multitudes of their perspectives from gender to geography have made what is the most comprehensive poll in the industry. So much so that ESPN, the Lexington Herald-Leader and The Saratogian have all picked it up for their regular coverage.
I have also included analysis of my picks by channeling my Jimmy “The Greek” ghostwriting days. I used to just pull names out of a hat. We’ll see which system is more effective.
We are also proud to feature a top tier pedigree analyst in Edwin Anthony submitting weekly reports on the top Derby contenders. His book “The American Thoroughbred” is a must read for all in the industry.
We’d love to have your vote of confidence in these initiatives and your continued support for more future enhancements to the Paulick Report through your anonymous financial support of $2,000, $1,000, $500, $250, $100 or $50. Please help us maintain our subscription free web publication and independent voice.
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Tags: Edwin Anthony, Paulick Derby Index, Support the Report
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Wednesday, March 18th, 2009
The following is the second in a series of articles written by Edwin Anthony examining the pedigrees of leading contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby. Last week’s inaugural article in the series looked at Friesan Fire, who on Saturday romped to victory in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. This week, he takes a look at Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth winner Quality Road (by Elusive Quality—Kobla, by Strawberry Road). Anthony spent six years as the staff pedigree consultant for Three Chimneys Farm and has contributed to numerous publications. He is the author of a newly published book, “The American Thoroughbred (Volume I).” Click here to learn more about the book. – Ray Paulick
By Edwin Anthony
QUALITY ROAD (Elusive Quality—Kobla, by Strawberry Road)
All things seem possible with the arrival of spring. This is perhaps why joyful maladies such as “Derby Fever” and “March Madness” are synonymous with the vernal equinox. Every NCAA basketball player dreams of a trip to the Final Four, and every owner and trainer of a 3-year-old colt (or filly) envisions their horse sweeping to the lead at the head of the stretch in the Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks. It’s only as we draw closer to or become involved in the actual events themselves that reality sets in.
I don’t fault the dreamers, though. Heck, I’m one of them. Where would the Thoroughbred industry be without enthusiastic owners, willing to pour millions of their hard-earned dollars into the game? And how entertaining would the NCAA tournament be without at least one “Cinderella story” every year? But, alas, it is our job to try to separate the true contenders from the pretenders.
Which horses along the Derby trail truly possess the depth of pedigree, stamina, and raw talent to negotiate a 20-horse field and arrive at the finishing post at the Derby, Preakness, or Belmont in front? We’ve certainly got plenty of history to go on, and the exercise of investigating these pedigrees hopefully makes us a little wiser in the process.
Classic winners such as Conquistador Cielo, Spend a Buck, Winning Colors, Smarty Jones, and Big Brown have taught us a valuable lesson. There is a difference between “cheap speed” and “classic speed,” in which horses are able to carry their fleet feet over an extended stretch of ground. We might very often concentrate on the pedigree of a horse in a classic race, and say, “This horse is going to mow them down in the last quarter of a mile. Look at the crosses of Fappiano and Ribot he’s got there in the third generation.” That’s all fine and dandy, but sometimes the best horse in the race simply goes to the lead and improves its position. And sometimes there are clues a little further back in a horse’s pedigree that indicate it may have more stamina genes in its family tree than is obvious by looking at a simplistic 3 x 3 generational printout.
I was certainly skeptical of Big Brown’s chances to win a classic last year. There was no denying that the horse was immensely talented, but where was a son of Boundary (a sprinter) from a mare by Nureyev (a miler) going to find the stamina reserves to negotiate a classic race? A closer look indicates that he is inbred 3 x 4 to the Preakness/Belmont winner Damascus and inbred 4 x 5 to the stamina and soundness influence Round Table. Furthermore, Big Brown’s dam carried intensive inbreeding to the important Rough Shod II family through Nureyev, Lear Fan, and in direct female inheritance.
Likewise, Smarty Jones (a son of Elusive Quality, like Quality Road) looked like a good miler. After all, Elusive Quality had broken the world record for one mile (on turf) and his dam was by Smile, a champion sprinter. But one has to consider the fact that Elusive Quality’s first 2 dams were sired by the long-winded Rokeby grass horse Hero’s Honor (a half-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Sea Hero) and Sir Ivor (an English Derby winner). In addition, Smarty Jones’ second dam was sired by Kentucky Derby winner Foolish Pleasure (also second in the Preakness and the Belmont), while the profound stamina influence Herbager sired his next dam. The stamina is there, if only veiled by time and speed influences closer up in the colt’s lineage.
It is perhaps into this category that we place a horse like Quality Road (pedigree). While he is only proven at up to a mile, with a breathtaking stalking trip and stretch run in the Fountain of Youth (G2), there are a lot of reasons to put this horse on your short list of Derby candidates.
First of all, Quality Road is a VERY fast horse. The “speed fig” and “sheets” guys are certain to love his performance in the Fountain of Youth, given his attendance to fractions of :45 2/5, 1:09 2/5, 1:22, and a finishing time of 1:35 for the mile, as each furlong he clipped off looked stronger than the one before. The last furlong was run in 13 seconds, even though a horse is expected to get a little tired after stalking such a fast pace, and 1:35 for a 3-year-old is very solid time. And he did draw off from a fairly contentious field by 4 ¼ lengths—it was an impressive race, to say the least, for a horse exiting a losing effort in an allowance race.
Quality Road’s sire Elusive Quality went through a bit of a dry spell, as many stallions do, after his initial success with Smarty Jones and Elusive City (Fr-I). But he has certainly come out the other side stronger than before, with last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Raven’s Pass and two additional G2 winners in 2009. And the ability of Smarty Jones and Raven’s Pass to impressively win races at the American classic distance of 10 furlongs (1 ¼ miles) certainly stamps Elusive Quality as a legitimate classic influence.
The distaff side of Quality Road’s pedigree is perhaps even more impressive, from a classic standpoint. His breeder and owner, Edward Evans, knows about stamina, as his family raced the dual-classic winner and classic influence Pleasant Colony. Mr. Evans went to $1,050,000 at the Keeneland-November sale to acquire the colt’s dam, Kobla, who did little at the racetrack, but is a full-sister to champion 3-year-old filly Ajina. Ajina was no wilting flower, as she accounted for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1), Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), and Mother Goose Stakes (G1), while placing second in the Alabama (G1) during a stellar sophomore campaign.
Strawberry Road, the sire of Kobla, was one of two homebred stallions (along with Theatrical) that Allen Paulson used with great success in his immense Brookside breeding program. Strawberry Road sired Ajina for Paulson, as well as champion older female Escena ($2.9 million in earnings, Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner) and Fraise ($2.6 million in earnings, Breeders’ Cup Turf winner). In addition to proving to be very sound, the progeny of Strawberry Road found races up to the European classic distance of 12 furlongs (1 ½ miles) well within their scope.
Quality Road’s next two dams were sired by Alydar (sire of classic winners Alysheba, Strike the Gold, and Easy Goer) and Bold Bidder (sire of Kentucky Derby/Preakness winner Spectacular Bid and Derby winner Cannonade), which certainly shouldn’t hurt his chances of getting a distance.
Quality Road hails from the Myrtlewood family of the peerless studs Mr. Prospector (profound classic influence) and Seattle Slew (Triple Crown winner and sire of A.P. Indy), and if you go back two more generations, you find the important foundation mare Frizette. Who else traces to Frizette? Elusive Quality. Mr. Prospector is the grandsire of Elusive Quality, and when you throw in a cross of the important French stallion Tourbillon (via My Babu), you see that Quality Road carries 4 crosses of Frizette in his pedigree.
If you can believe it, there is even more for breeders to like about Quality Road’s pedigree. He carries 6 x 5 inbreeding to the important mare Flower Bowl via Whiskey Road (sire of Strawberry Road) and the important classic influence Graustark in Elusive Quality’s pedigree. This family is very important in classic circles, as we also find classic influences like His Majesty and Majestic Prince (Kentucky Derby/Preakness winner), as well as Real Quiet (a near Triple Crown winner) and foreign classic winners Caracolero (French Derby) and Secreto (English Derby) descending from the foundation mare Boudoir II.
Quality Road also carries 6 x 6 inbreeding to the two-time champion Two Lea (Hollywood Gold Cup over colts) via Tim Tam (Kentucky Derby/Preakness winner) and On-and-On (damsire of Alydar). So, that gives him multiple links to three notable broodmares (Myrtlewood, Flower Bowl, and Two Lea) all within the first 7 generations of his pedigree. His pedigree also carries the Mr. Prospector/Alydar combination (more than a dozen G1 winners have that, including champions Anees and Point Given), as well as 3 crosses of the Nasrullah/Princequillo combination (Secretariat, the mare Natashka, and Bold Bidder), although when a colt carries this much quality and maternal influence, that almost seems unfair to mention to the competition.
Quality Road still has a lot to prove, no doubt. And whether or not he’s a classic-type horse will remain to be seen. But at the very least, we are looking at a very exciting young stallion prospect, and his performance in the Fountain of Youth went a long toward padding his resume in the minds of breeders.
Edwin Anthony was the staff pedigree consultant at Three Chimneys Farm for six years and has penned dozens of articles on pedigree research. He recently published the reference book, The American Thoroughbred (Volume I). Click here to learn more and order your copy today.
Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report
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Tags: Edwin Anthony, elusive quality, kentucky derby, Paulick Report, pedigree consultant, Quality Road, Ray Paulick, strawberry road
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