Posts Tagged ‘dunkirk’

The Paulick Report is pleased to once again offer the pedigree insights of Edwin Anthony in the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Ed has lifelong experience in the Thoroughbred industry, has practical experience planning matings for his family’s stable and formerly as a pedigree adviser to Three Chimneys Farm. His perspective is straightforward and refreshingly opinionated, and I advise anyone interested in Thoroughbred pedigrees to pick up a copy of his book, “The American Thoroughbred (Volume One)”—available for purchase here.

In this first of a series of articles, he looks at the pedigree of Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth winner Eskendereya. – Ray Paulick

ESKENDEREYA (Giant’s Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew)
By Edwin Anthony
I wrote a series of eight pedigree profiles for horses on the “Triple Crown trail” starting about this time last year, and recent Fountain of Youth (G2) winner Eskendereya will serve as the first horse in our series this season. It’s interesting to look back at the horses we profiled last year (Friesan Fire, Quality Road, Pioneerof the Nile, Dunkirk, I Want Revenge, Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy, Rachel Alexandra) to see how they fared.

Quality Road is obviously a top horse (he missed the Triple Crown with quarter cracks), while Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile were each able to place in one classic race, and I wrote a token piece about Rachel Alexandra because she looked like a very special filly, even though she had not won anything more than a G2 race at that stage.  Only a fortune teller could have predicted Rachel Alexandra’s Horse of the Year campaign after changing hands or the rapid ascension of Birdstone (sire of longshot classic winners Mine That Bird and Summer Bird) as a major classic influence.

Even though I have studied Thoroughbred pedigrees for going on 25 years, no one can get around the folly of bad luck, injuries in training, or the fact that many horses look dominant going nine furlongs (a mile-and-an-eighth) but simply aren’t up to the demanding task of running classic distances at a competitive speed.

That’s the mystery of stamina and genetics that we’re constantly trying to figure out.  Of course, even a horse that is capable of competing at classic distances still needs to put out the effort, and sometimes horses have off-days just like people.

If nothing else, we strive to learn about the strengths and limitations of the stallions and ancestors under discussion and hope to come out smarter on the other side.  At the very least, we want to learn what strategies are working in pedigrees, even if some of them aren’t up to the classic standard.  Who are the soundest horses, where is the stamina coming from, and what ancestors are best to inbreed to?  These are the answers we’re looking for.

Pedigree analysts (like myself) try to identify patterns in graded stakes results as a way of predicting the future.  Given that the Storm Cat line has been a poor source of classic winners, then you probably wouldn’t want to lean heavily on Storm Cat’s sons (or stallions out of Storm Cat mares) in your stallion recommendations for breeders that want to breed for the classics.  The Storm Cat line hasn’t had a winner of a Triple Crown race since Tabasco Cat in 1994, although Bluegrass Cat was second in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont, and Travers in 2006.  You should note that Bluegrass Cat is out of a mare by classic influence A.P. Indy and his dam is heavily inbred to the foundation mare La Troienne, including being from the Numbered Account (champion 2YO filly by Buckpasser) branch of that important family.

So, while the Storm Cat line is dominant in 2-year-old racing and in races contested at distances of 9 furlongs or shorter, it does not appear capable of producing classic types, unless there is a LOT of help on the dam side of the equation.  Of course, when you start to speak in these kinds of absolutes, a special horse can come along and provide us with the exception to the rule.

Storm Cat’s son Giant’s Causeway was a tough campaigner in Europe out of a good racemare by Rahy, with a second dam by English Derby winner and classic influence Roberto.  He was undeniably consistent and high class, winning a series of Group 1 races at more than a mile. In his final start, he gave classic distance specialist Tiznow a real run for his money in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, that being his only start on dirt.  So, Giant’s Causeway was sound, very fast, and capable of competing with top horses at the American classic distance of 10 furlongs (a mile-and-a-quarter).  This makes him an exception among sons of Storm Cat, as most of his sons that have found any measure of success at stud were much better at a mile or less and have passed on this penchant for speed among their progeny.

Giant’s Causeway has already sired Grade 1 winners in America over 10 furlongs like Heatseeker (Santa Anita Handicap), Frost Giant (Suburban), and Red Giant (NWR, Clement L. Hirsch Memorial Turf Championship), so you can see that if there is a son of Storm Cat capable of siring an American classic winner, then Giant’s Causeway is probably the one.

The runaway win by Eskendereya (by Giant’s Causeway) in the Fountain of Youth (G2) was more than visually impressive.  You could see that the horse really relished the opportunity to go two turns, and he is now 3 for 3 on the dirt, his only losses coming in his first start (a maiden event on turf at Saratoga) and a poor effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), contested over the synthetic surface at Santa Anita.  He was reported to have a troubled trip in that race as well.

I have often thought that a true classic type horse is able to simply get into a steady gallop and carve out “12’s,” which is to say that he can consistently complete each furlong of a race in 12 seconds.  It becomes increasingly difficult to do with each furlong, as the muscles begin to tire, and Secretariat’s world record time of 2:24 in the 1973 Belmont (over 12 furlongs) is the best example of a horse being able to accomplish this feat over such a distance.  It’s not about an explosive move or “turn of foot” with classic horses; it’s steady horsepower over a distance.  Classic horses “stay” (as the Europeans like to say), while horses more suited to shorter distances simply run out of gas, unable to maintain a steady stream of “12’s” on the toteboard teletimer.

This is exactly what Eskendereya did to the field in the Fountain of Youth (G2)—he galloped them into submission.  After taking over after a half-mile in a soft 47.92, he completed six furlongs in 1:12.41, a mile in 1:36.54, with a final time for nine furlongs of 1:48.87, echoing the many 12-second furlongs before the last one.  So, like several other sons of Giant’s Causeway, Eskendereya looks capable of running a distance of ground as far as 10 furlongs at a competitive rate of speed.  Let’s look at the bottom side of his pedigree to check for more stamina.

Eskendereya’s damsire, Seattle Slew, won the Triple Crown and has been a very successful classic influence, with descendants like A.P. Indy (Belmont, Breeders’ Cup Classic), Bernardini (Preakness, Travers), Cigar (Breeders’ Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup), Lemon Drop Kid (Belmont, Travers), Mineshaft (Jockey Club Gold Cup, Suburban), and Slew o’ Gold (Jockey Club Gold Cup twice) serving as notable examples.

Alydar (second in all 3 Triple Crown races to Affirmed) is the sire of Eskendereya’s second dam, and beyond the fact that he sired two Kentucky Derby winners (Alysheba and Strike the Gold) and a Belmont winner (Easy Goer), Horse of the Year Point Given (Preakness, Belmont, Travers) was produced by a mare by champion Turkoman, he being a son of Alydar.

We know that inbreeding to the family of Almahmoud (second dam of both Halo and Northern Dancer) has been quite successful, and Giant’s Causeway is a very good example of this, as Storm Cat is a grandson of Northern Dancer and Rahy (his damsire) is out of a mare by Halo.  The pedigree of Eskendereya shows why a six-generation computer program is a good investment, as his third dam carries intensive inbreeding to the Almahmoud family as well.  His third dam is by Northern Dancer himself (giving Eskendereya “balanced” inbreeding to Northern Dancer—through a son and a daughter), and while his fourth dam was sired by the stout stamina influence Ribot (winner of the 12-furlong “Arc” twice) his fifth dam is actually the mare Cosmah, she being the dam of Halo and a daughter of Almahmoud. Thus, Eskendereya is not only inbred to Northern Dancer through  a son and a daughter, he is inbred to Halo’s dam, Cosmah, 6 x 5 and carries four total crosses of Almahmoud.

As the ancestors Northern Dancer, Halo, and their granddam Almahmoud get further back in pedigrees, this reinforcement strategy of crossing horses inbred to Almahmoud should continue to find success and revive their influence in classic pedigrees.  My parents bred and raced Preakness winner Pine Bluff (inbred 4 x 4 to Almahmoud), and I have noticed him working well with reinforcement of Almahmoud’s genes, crossing successfully with stallions like More Than Ready (by Southern Halo—closely inbred to Almahmoud), Menifee (by Harlan—closely inbred to Almahmoud), and Jules (from the Northern Dancer family and carrying Halo in his pedigree).  So, it seems to be a strategy that is paying dividends with stallions and mares already carrying inbreeding to Almahmoud.

Given the fact that Giant’s Causeway has already proven capable of siring runners that excel at classic distances, and the fact that Eskendereya carries a number of other classic influences in his pedigree (Seattle Slew, Alydar, Ribot, and intensive inbreeding to the influential Almahmoud family), I’d say that his classic prospects look very bright indeed.  His clear preference for dirt racing and ability to string together one 12 second furlong after another only boosts his stock, in my opinion.  If Eskenereya can arrive in Louisville with a solid Florida Derby (G1) effort under his belt, he should be a very strong contender.
 
Edwin Anthony was the staff pedigree consultant at Three Chimneys Farm for six years and has penned dozens of articles on pedigree research.  He also published The American Thoroughbred (Volume I) in 2008, which can be ordered via the banner ad link on this web page or on his web site at www.thoroughbredadvisor.com.

Dunkirk, the second-place finisher in the June 6 Belmont Stakes, suffered a non-displaced condylar fracture of the left hind cannon bone during last Saturday’s running of the 1 ½ - mile Classic. The injury was detected when the colt was slightly off following the race, and x-rays taken June 8 revealed the fracture.

“He will have surgery later this morning to place a screw into the area which will stabilize the injury while it heals,” said Todd Pletcher, trainer of Dunkirk.  “We anticipate a full recovery and a return to racing later this fall.”

The surgery will be performed at the Ruffian Equine Medical Center in Elmont, NY by Dr. Patricia Hogan.

Dunkirk, owned by Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith, was a $3.7 million Keeneland September yearling sale purchase. Sired by multiple graded stakes winner Unbridled’s Song, he led the field in this year’s Belmont, setting the pace under jockey John Velazquez.  He finished 2 ¾ lengths behind eventual winner Summer Bird and a neck ahead of Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird.

The Belmont was the fifth start for Dunkirk, who ran an impressive second to Quality Road in the Florida Derby after scoring back to back wins at Gulfstream Park.

By Ray Paulick
A late-running son of Birdstone won the 141st Belmont Stakes, but it wasn’t Mine That Bird, the Kentucky Derby winner, Preakness runner-up and Belmont favorite. Instead, making the last run under Kent Desormeaux, 11-1 longshot Summer Bird–a troubled sixth in the Kentucky Derby in what was just his fourth lifetime start–got up in the final furlong to beat Dunkirk and Mine That Bird  by 2 3/4  lengths in the mile and a half "test of the champion" at Belmont Park on Saturday. Charitable Man was fourth, followed by Luv Gov, Flying Private, Brave Victory, Mr. Hot Stuff, Chocolate Candy and Miner’s Escape.

There was an inquiry involving the second and fourth-place finishers (Charitable Man checked inside the eighth pole when Dunkirk may have drifted out) but stewards allowed the original order of finish to stand.

Belmont Stakes chart. 

Video of the Belmont.

Summer Bird, who was winning his first stakes race, covered the 1 1/2 miles on a fast track in 2:27.54, well off the 2:24 track record set by Secretariat in 1973, but the fastest Belmont since his sire, Birdstone, ended the Triple Crown hopes of Smarty Jones in 2004. Birdstone, a son of Kentucky Derby winner Grindstone, was clocked in 2:27.50.

Bred and owned by Kalarikkal and Vilasini Jayaraman and trained by Tim Ice, Summer Bird settled into fifth position early under Desormeaux, saving ground for the first mile as Dunkirk galloped through fractions of :47.13 for the opening half-mile, 1:12.43 for six furlongs and 1:37.86 for the mile. Miner’s Escape and Mr. Hot Stuff were his closest pursuers early, with Charitable Man not far behind.

Mine That Bird and Calvin Borel trailed the field early, but began their run with about five furlongs to go. Summer Bird was shuffled back to ninth as the field bunched up on the front end around the far turn, but Desormeaux bided his time and didn’t panic. Borel, meanwhile, was asking Mine That Bird for his best and he moved toward the leaders as the field rounded the final bend and into  the long stretch. Desormeaux came off the rail and rallied five wide into the stretch, gaining ground with every stride as Mine That Bird, Charitable and Dunkirk battled for the lead to inside the eighth pole. But Summer Bird had all the momentum, taking the lead at the sixteenth pole and drawing away.

It was a jockeys’ race. Desormeaux, riding in his sixth Belmont and getting his first winner, has learned from some past mistakes, such as when he moved Real Quiet to the lead too soon in the 1998 Belmont. Real Quiet, bidding for the Triple Crown, was caught at the wire by Victory Gallop, losing by a nose. It’s possible he would have been disqualified had he hung on, as Desormeaux allowed Real Quiet to drift out into Victory Gallop’s lane that year. Dexormeaux had also finished third on Free House when Touch Gold spoiled Silver Charm’s Triple Crown bid in the 1997 Belmont, and second aboard Medaglia d’Oro when rushing to the early lead and caught in the late going by Sarava in 2002, as War Emblem failed in his Triple Crown bid.

Last year, Desormeaux pulled up Kentucky  Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown at the top of the stretch when it became apparent the horse was hopelessly beaten. He was widely criticized for that move. Desormeaux, in fact, for all his successes (he’s won three Eclipse Awards, three Kentucky Derbies and is a member of the National Museum of Racing Hall of  Fame), never seems that far from controversy. For much of his career, horse players felt the Louisiana native didn’t ride hard to the finish when his mounts were beaten, complaining that it cost them a placing in exotic wagers.

Borel, also from Cajun country, was riding in his first Belmont. He boasted throughout the week that Mine That Bird would win, but Desormeaux called Borel naive about the rigors of the Belmont. It turns out experience may have mattered. Even Chip Woolley, interviewed on ABC immedately after the race, said he felt Borel moved a bit too soon in the race. The same thing happened to Stewart Elliott, who lacked big-race experience, when he moved Smarty Jones to an early lead in his failed effort. Birdstone ran him down in the final strides.

Summer Bird, produced from the Summer Squall mare Hong Kong Squall, was a late starter, going unraced as a 2-year-old and not debuting until a March 1 maiden race going six furlongs at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas. Finishing fourth that day, the colt was wheeled back 18 days later in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Oaklawn and won by 2 1/4 lengths. Trainer Ice put him against graded stakes competition next, where Summer Bird finished third behind Papa Clem and Old Fashioned in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby. He was 43-1 to when finishing sixth in the Kentucky Derby in a better than looked effort, after which Summer Bird’s connection opted to replace inexperienced rider Chris Rosier with Desormeaux.  

The change in riders may have made the difference, and the Jayaramans now have their first classic winner.

POST RACE-COMMENTS OF THE WINNING CONNECTIONS:

KENT DESORMEAUX
KALARIKKAL JAYARAMAN
VILASINI JAYARAMAN
TIM ICE

            KENT DESORMEAUX:  (Singing) Happy birthday to you, happy birthday to you. All right, Timmy.  Oh, that’s some good water.
            THE MODERATOR:  Okay.  We’ll be getting started in just a moment or two.  We have the happy connections of Summer Bird.  Left to right we have the trainer, Tim Ice, who celebrated his 35th birthday in style with a Belmont Stakes victory.  Now, seated next to Tim, winning rider, Kent Desormeaux, his first Belmont Stakes victory of an illustrious career.  Of course the owners, Kalarikkal Jayaraman and his wife, Devi. Congratulations to all four of you.  First I’d like to start, Tim, your first year of training, you and the horse have come a long way in an awfully short period of time.  Are you overcome by emotion after such a win as this, right?
            TIM ICE:  Right now it’s just unexplainable.  I have to thank the Jayaramans both for sticking with me.  At first it was a little rough, you know.  We had a nice colt coming on the way here.  Picked up.  They sent him to me in January.  I owe everything to them.
            THE MODERATOR:  Kent, congratulations on your first Belmont Stakes win, something I’m sure a lot of people feel is long overdue. Were you surprised aboard Summer Bird to see Mine That Bird moving in front of you?
            KENT DESORMEAUX:  I got to be honest with you.  I didn’t pick up Mine That Bird till the 5/16 pole.  I was riding my horse, paying attention to details, making sure he was comfortable … I don’t think there was a bias, not saying that.  Just saying with it being fair and equal throughout.  I thought an inside trip might help me.  When I did pick him up, I was a little bit disappointed.  I was like, how am I going to catch him?  He’s already in front of me.  But when I did get that opportunity, this colt just laid down and took off.  He really exploded the last, probably 500 yards, and there was never any doubt turning for home after he changed his leads.  The only way I was going to get beat if there was somebody behind me coming, he had dead aim on the leaders.
            THE MODERATOR:  KK and Devi, you ran Summer Bird in a $1 million race, the Arkansas Derby, off just a single maiden victory. Clearly you all knew your horse had some special talent.  What gave you the confidence to make that this pretty significant step up in class so boldly?
            VILASINI JAYARAMAN:  Summer Bird was well all along as two-year-old, took a long time to get to the races, not that he had any problems. He didn’t have explosive speed of a sprinter. We kept him in the farm, trained him in the farm on the track.  We thought he was a good horse.  All the rest of the work was done by Tim Ice and I thank him.  Thank you Tim, for Kent, for his beautiful ride.
            THE MODERATOR:  Tim, in addition to all that hard work up front, you made a slight adjustment going into the race. Adding blinkers certainly seemed to pay off.
            TIM ICE:  I think adding the blinkers let him focus.  I think Kent Desormeaux helped a lot.  With the blinkers and Kent, had they put it together and won the third leg of the Triple Crown.
            THE MODERATOR:  Do you know what might be next for the Summer Bird?
            TIM ICE:  I’m not sure.  We’ll discuss it, the owners and I.  We thought about trying him on the grass, but after this, we may, you know, we have some options.  We’ll sit down and discuss it.
            THE MODERATOR:  I want to throw open questions both upstairs in the Press Box and down here in the room, and I’ll repeat the question for the benefit of those who are listening upstairs.

            Q.  For Kent, if you could just discuss the difference in emotions from last year’s Belmont to this year.
            KENT DESORMEAUX:  Last year’s Belmont was like swallowing a spoon sideways, what a pill to swallow.  I go from a horse, in my heart, I thought could not lose.  He had some adversity and lack of training.  I still didn’t think he could lose.  Things happened the way they did, he didn’t respond.  I babysat him and now here today.  Tim babysat me.  I’m very fortunate to have the opportunity to ride for Tim and Drs. Jayaraman and thankful for Belmont for putting on a great show.  Mother Nature treated us well and NetJets.

            Q.  Not only did you have Big Brown last year, you had probably the toughest beat in horse racing history, aboard Real Quiet.  You were 0-for-six in the Belmont, had two disappointing races, were you starting to think there was some (inaudible) Kent Desormeaux?
            KENT DESORMEAUX:  No, not at all. Especially after the first Belmont (with Real Quiet), I slept very well.  I thought that, given the opportunity, I’d do it the same way all over again.  Hindsight is 20-20.  Cornering for home, Real Quiet, I did not think I could lose.  I don’t know what he saw.  I don’t know why he gawked.  For anyone thinks he got tired, he was not, he gawked on the lead, and the only stride Victory Gallop was a head bob on the wire, because that’s when Real Quiet saw, and three strides later, I was a length in front. So it just wasn’t meant to be.  With that being said, I did also try to, you know, maintain my confidence, know that when God had it in my plan, it would happen.

            Q.  Dr. J and Mrs. Dr. J., you’ve bred a lot of good horses; could you describe anything outstanding about this horse as a foal and also as he progressed to his early training, did anything stand out to you from the get-go?
            KALARIKKAL JAYARAMAN:  I believe of about 25 two years old last year, he was a standout in the room.  He was strong.  He never had any physical problems, but he didn’t have that an explosive sprint.  He was a standout.

            Q.  Who trains at the farm?  Who trains for you at the farm?
            KALARIKKAL JAYARAMAN:  I do that.

            Q.  This is a question for Tim.  When I spoke to you the other day, we kind of talked about what this would mean to your young career to have a win in the Belmont Stakes.  Now that you’ve done it, can you tell me what you think?
            TIM ICE:  I don’t know yet.  I’m still taking it in and enjoying this right now.  If my career goes nowhere from here, I’ve got a Belmont win.  They can’t take it away from me.

            Q.  You also mentioned to me that you hoped you could sort of branch out of Louisiana Downs and you thought maybe within the next year or so you would look at some other locations.  Do you think this will be sped up and what are those locations you’re looking for?
            TIM ICE:  Right now I’m settled at Louisiana Downs.  Next summer we’ll probably look at other places, maybe come up here on the east coast.  Just, you know, right now we’re going to enjoy this win and figure out everything later.

            Q.  Last question, do you think you’ll bring the horse back to the Louisiana Downs?
            TIM ICE:  He’ll go back to Louisiana Downs.

            Q.  When will that be?
            TIM ICE:  He’s going to Churchill on Monday and Churchill to Louisiana Downs.

            Q.  Tim, can you describe the process, how Kent ended up on the horse, and Kent, can you talk about with his connection to your brother, did you know him pretty well?
            TIM ICE:  Well, we called Kent after the Kentucky Derby and he was already obligated in the Preakness.  So we waited.  I talked to Joe Talamo about riding him.  We got up here. We talked to a few people.  You know, they said, we needed a rider that knows the track. And nothing against Joe, you know, we found us a rider that knows Belmont and, you know, we got the job done.

            Q.  Kent, your part of the question, did you know Tim very well because of his relationship with your brother?
            KENT DESORMEAUX:  The answer is yes.  I think I’m just thankful that we did have that connection.  It’s probably part of the opportunity.  But I think personally, I think Tim, the phone will ring.  He won the Belmont. His phone will ring and I want to congratulate him on doing the right thing.  He had this horse here early.  It is very, very different lay of the land here at Belmont.  We don’t call it the Big Sandy for nothing.  The track is different.  The sand is different and the horses probably get a little stoved up training here the first couple of days already.  They’re not fast like Churchill or Pimlico.  And I think he needs a pat on the back for getting the job done.  He did it right and that’s why he’s taking his picture and that’s why his phone is going to ring.

            Q.  Tim, when we talked to you Wednesday after the horse was on the track, you liked the way he moved and looked really good.  You said if he keeps his energy up, we’re going to be hard to beat.  How was it from those days on?  Was it an anxious waiting for this day?
            TIM ICE:  We took it day-to-day.  The horse was going great all week.  Anybody that come up and ask me about him, I said this horse is going to run big.  He’s a good-feeling horse.  He was fresh, you know.  He had five weeks in between the Derby and the Belmont and that helped the colt a lot.  He’s still maturing, and, you know, he proved it today. We did the right thing by skipping the Preakness and waiting on the Belmont and bringing him here early.
            THE MODERATOR:  Dr. Jayaraman, a question from upstairs in the Press Box.  You’ve had a lot of trainers throughout your owner career. Here in Tim Ice, you have a man who’s been training on his own for just a year.  Can you discuss using Tim?
            KALARIKKAL JAYARAMAN:  I cannot say anything about the trainers I had in the past.  Tim has been exceptionally good.

            Q.  Kent, you had a pretty big day today. You had three wins earlier on in the afternoon in a row.  Did that give you any extra confidence going into the Belmont Stakes?
            KENT DESORMEAUX:  Yeah, I was flying high as a kite until I rode Wesley and the bottom fell out.  I was really hopeful that I thought I had a big chance in that race and I really would like to have a do-over there.  It was unfortunate I had to go into the race after Wesley.  It’s what we do as jockeys, onto the next one, erase the board, move on.  I tell you what gave me confidence, I watched this horse gallop a two-minute lick last week.  He was going better the second time around than the first time.  That’s where I had had my confidence.  It was enjoyable to watch.  I thought he was doing very well.  Not only that he definitely touted himself all the way to the game, he was … dancing, never stopped dancing.

            Q.  Kent, you probably just answered the question I’m going to ask you, but how well did you know this horse before you rode him, and can you compare it to other Belmont’s you’ve ridden, how confident were you, really, in his ability to win the race?
            KENT DESORMEAUX:  Well, I’d like to tell you a story, but the reality is, I breezed him, boy I had to scrub on him just to make him do things. He did work well, but he was a horse that needed a lot of encouragement.  I got him to do what Tim and I wanted to do out of the morning breeze.  Like usual.  Morning hours, there’s nothing like afternoon horses. This horse drug me around the racetrack.  I tried to use the track tactics that offered me wins in the past.  Instead of staying three or four lengths behind a horse where his nose gets filled with sand, I tried to stick it up behind somebody so he could get his full breath. Instead of the sand pelting him in the nose, it was going under his belly.  Those little things I tried to accomplish at the Big Sandy here at Belmont.  Tim had the horse breathing fire.  I was able to steer him around the racetrack.  Everything worked out. I’m thrilled to be here talking to you about my first Belmont.

            Q.  After last year’s Belmont, did you ask yourself is there anything you could have done differently, or did you simply not have the same horse?
            KENT DESORMEAUX:  I kind of think I dwelled on that a little bit, just the fact that I think I say I hope that through this, horsemen will understand and have the confidence, as usual, that if I’m given the opportunity, I try not to bail.  And usually if it’s not an ending result of success, I hope that the end result, once it’s dwelled upon, the blame finds itself elsewhere …  I can’t tell you how much I’m going inside, how well it feels to have that contentment and to be able to go home and rest at ease knowing I’ve won the three American classics.

            Q.  Kent, you’ve ridden horses going for the Triple Crown in the Belmont, now you’re on one that had the five weeks rest, being on both types of horses, how different was the feel on the fresh horse and what does that say about the attempt of these guys trying to win the Triple Crown and with the new move of horses than waiting the five weeks?
            KENT DESORMEAUX:  It’s a very good question, and it’s an emphatic obvious.  It’s so dramatic to me because all of the previous mounts … this horse showed me the difference.  I mean, he was toe-y, dancing, just that bit of energy that tells you, "Let me at ‘em, let me at ‘em, I can’t wait to get to them.  I want to be a racehorse."  Whereas, the other ones, they all were kind of just here we go again.

            Q.  To either of Drs. Jayaraman, you guys took a big chance on an unknown trainer that had not much experience on his own; tell us why you chose Tim and what did you see in him to give him your horses and did you have any reservations that maybe he hadn’t had any experience, as a head trainer at least.
            KALARIKKAL JAYARAMAN:  I knew Tim for three or four years when he was working as assistant for other trainers, and I thought he was doing a good job.  In the past I’ve done that also without knowing the trainers very well.

            Q.  Kent, was there a point where you perhaps you were deciding to go inside or outside or were you always waiting to pull him outside. Were you thinking of a Bo-rail ride up the inside?
            KENT DESORMEAUX:  Well, I actually was thinking if Borel is going to beat me, he’s going to have to come around.  It’s a Louisiana life-long lesson.  With that being said, I actually was a little disappointed.  I thought I had waited too long, because by the time we got to the three-eighths pole, I was still covered up, and we quickened, the entire field quickened, and I went from being drug behind the flight in front of me, to being just allowing him to float, and they were opening up on me.  They actually had a better turn of foot than I did at that instant.  It was only for maybe 15 strides I’d say, at least a sixteenth of a mile, I couldn’t keep up and they no longer progressed away from me and I started eating the ground up and catching them.  That’s when I looked for a path and found a seam, and he took off even faster after I was able to clear his face up and get him clear sailing where there was no objects in front of him.

            Q.  Tim, can you talk about your decision in training for you’ve been training for 15 months what was it that made you realize it was time to go out on your own?
            TIM ICE:  I was an assistant trainer for 15 years, I put in all the hours and hard work and I thought I might as well do it for myself. It took a little longer, but I think I got a thorough knowledge of the sport and what it’s about.  I worked for Keith Desormeaux, great guy, with him five years.  Cole Norman three years, Morris Nicks for two years, a few others in between.  But those are the three that influenced me the most and, you know, I have to thank those guys as well where I’m at today because they showed me a lot, taught me, they had a lot of confidence in me to hire me.  It was just a matter of you know, turning 34, it was time I working for myself.

            Q.  Doctors, could you describe your emotions during the race when the horse started to make his move and also your emotions at the end of the race, please?
            KALARIKKAL JAYARAMAN:  It was great. It was like a dream winning the Belmont.

            Q.  Were you yelling?
            KALARIKKAL JAYARAMAN:  Oh, yeah, we were yelling.
            THE MODERATOR:  Same question for you, Tim.
            TIM ICE:  All I could hear was my hollering, I couldn’t hear anybody else.  It was surreal to see the red cap, blue blinkers coming on the outside, it was just a thrilling, exciting finish.

            Q.  Kent, you’ve been in this business a long, long time, do guarantees ever work?
            KENT DESORMEAUX:  I’ve given them out before and had some success.  You learn in the end you usually just shoot yourself in the foot.

            Q.  Were you surprised Calvin guaranteed?
            KENT DESORMEAUX:  No, not at all, and I can’t blame him for it.  I think that you start to feel like superman, you feel invincible.  I guarantee you he went into the race with that utmost feeling he could not lose, and I wouldn’t want anybody any different on my horse.

            Q.  You had that feeling you said before Real Quiet but not before Big Brown, what was the difference between those two races?
            KENT DESORMEAUX:  Big Brown was dealing with a lot of adversity, everyone knows about the foot.  No foot, no horse.  There was the lack of training in the three weeks.  I mean, you know after the Preakness moving onto this race.  There were several moments we didn’t even know if he was going to run.  That’s the answer.
            THE MODERATOR:  Anything else for team Summer Bird?  All right, well, Tim Ice, Kent Desormeaux, Dr. Jayaraman and Devi, congratulations on a terrific berth day and happy birthday to you, Tim.
            TIM ICE:  Thank you.
            KENT DESORMEAUX:  Thank you all.

            End of FastScripts
TRANSCRIPT PROVIDED BY ASAP SPORTS: ASAPSPORTS.COM

QUOTES FROM MINE THAT BIRD’S CONNECTIONS: 

CALVIN BOREL
CHIP WOOLLEY
            THE MODERATOR:  Okay.  We are live in the interview room with Calvin Borel who is the rider of Mine That Bird, finishing third.  There is an inquiry in progress that still has not been adjudicated regarding the second place finisher, Dunkirk.
            Calvin, can you take us through the trip on Mine That Bird?
            CALVIN BOREL:  I had a good trip. He was fine, you know.  He was a little bit more forward, you know, like I expected going around the half, you know, and down the back side, I thought he might win.  When I got to the point I still thought he was going, I told my fiance on the weekend, that horse, he got wide in the Derby, can’t keep no credit away from my little horse.  He tried.  He run his heart out, and I wouldn’t give up for nothing in the world.
            THE MODERATOR:  In an ideal world, did you make the lead sooner than you expected?
            CALVIN BOREL:  They kind of come back to me pretty quick.  But I was still comfortable, you know, I mean, from the eighth pole to the wire, I was still comfortable.  Last 40 yards he kind of threw the towel in.  When I moved him, I was happy to get over a little bit, save a little ground, no excuses.  He run his eyeballs out.
            THE MODERATOR:  Last question before I throw it out to the media.  It’s been a very emotional five weeks for you, can you describe your emotions now that it’s come to an end?
            CALVIN BOREL:  It’s been a good road.  It’s unbelievable.  First two legs, I mean, I won’t change it for nothing in the world.  I’m going to be there tomorrow morning, try again, try to get another one.
            THE MODERATOR:  Questions in the room for Calvin?  I’ll repeat them for the benefit of those listening upstairs.

            Q.  Did he take you into the race?
            CALVIN BOREL:  He kind of took me a little earlier than I wanted in the back side.  I knew the fence wasn’t good. It’s kind of keep down there.  When I eased him out, he took me a little earlier than I wanted.  So I let him go on.  The horses in front kind of stopped, like a walk the last quarter of a mile.  Like I said, you know, he tried.  He bellied down when the horse come up to the outside. So I can’t take nothing out of him, you know.  It’s very — track is deep, you know.  He just got no excuses, nothing but race track in front of us.

            Q.  Calvin, any noticeable difference in Mine That Bird’s demeanor before or during the race?
            CALVIN BOREL:  No, sir.  He was happy.  Chip … did a good job getting him ready, keeping him happy. Main thing, to get him here, we did that. He run a good race.  Where he come from, he run a good race.

            Q.  Calvin, did he seem tired to you at all?
            CALVIN BOREL:  Not really, no.  He was — I don’t think he got tired.  If anything, you know, maybe moved him a little earlier, let him get up there earlier than I was supposed to.  I wasn’t going to take the race out of him, because I knew someone was going to plod on this and beat us, that’s what happened.

            Q.  Why did you think that Summer Bird was the horse to beat?
            CALVIN BOREL:  If you watch him run in the Derby you’d see why.  I thought that was the horse to beat.  My little colt run so hard the last two races, you can’t take nothing away from him.  Chip did a good job with him, like I said. Coming for home, I thought he was home free.  He bellied down, run his little heart out.  So, please don’t knock him down.  He’s not a bad horse.
            THE MODERATOR:  We’re also now joined by Mine That Bird’s trainer, Chip Woolley.
            Chip, first and foremost, tell us how Mine That Bird came back from the race.
            CHIP WOOLLEY:  He looked good off the track.  He wasn’t dead.  He was tired, he looked okay.  Talked to Charlie just now, he’s on his way on the barn. He looked all right.
            THE MODERATOR:  Post-Derby, Calvin, was a bevy of emotion, you were very stoic.  Calvin is pretty stoic now and graceful in defeat.  What are your emotions after this five-week run?
            CHIP WOOLLEY:  My emotions are real high right now.  I want to congratulate Tim Ice.  He did a great job.  We’re disappointed, down a little bit, but the colt did run a big race.  Calvin rode a good race.  Watching it live, I haven’t watched the reply, I can’t comment too much on the race, other than I thought we might have gone ahead early.  Hard to say that when you haven’t seen the replay.  I may have a whole different outlook on it when the time comes, really sit down and watch it.  I heard Calvin say the horse was kind of fresh down the backside, kind of getting up into the bridle.  That’s kind of something he hadn’t been doing in the past.  So I think he run a great race. It’s been a lot of fun.  I was a little concerned with the horse when he went to the holding barn today.  He was a hair more, a little more amped more than he had been previous races, you know.  Maybe I had him a hair too fresh.  Maybe I should have done something different when we got here.  But it’s hard to say.
            THE MODERATOR:  Okay.  People listening in the Press Box may also ask a question.  It will get relayed down here and asked.  Questions for the trainer and jockey of Mine That Bird.

            Q.  Calvin, you talked about, you know, how much will you kind of go over your performance and your ride in a race like this when you talk about did I move him too early, did I not?
            CALVIN BOREL:  Not that I moved him too early.  The horses in front come back to me quick, going that far.  It might have looked like he was a little fresher, but they’re going a mile and a half.  He was going to put me in the race a little bit more, you know … after they passed seven-eighths of a mile, they come back real quick.  I didn’t move on him till the quarter pole. I was still happy.  We just got outrun, sir.  It’s been a hard trip, a hard run. The colt’s tried every time he run.  You can’t take nothing away from him.  Like I said, maybe might have moved a little tad early.  But he took me there  …   I mean, when they moving that easy and the horses are coming back to you that fast, it might look like he got there quicker.

            Q.  Chip, do you think your horse has done enough to wrap up the championship at this juncture?
            CHIP WOOLLEY:  Not by no means. He’s going to have to step up to the plate and do more before the end of the year, if he’s got any shot at it.
            THE MODERATOR:  Chip, can you fill people in on what might be the next step for Mine That Bird, or is it too soon to figure that out?
            CHIP WOOLLEY:  Well, I mean, really right now what we’re aiming at is probably another race out here on the east coast somewhere.  We haven’t picked a spot yet, kind of studying everything. Going to give him a good eight weeks between races and let him freshen up. Maybe a little time off, not much. Couple weeks off and back into training, and see if we can’t aim at something over here on the east coast, and maybe his ultimate goal, of course, is going to be the Breeder’s Cup.  So maybe two outs between now and then if the horse is doing well. I’ve got a run this by Mark Allen and Dr. Block.  They’ve given me a great opportunity here.
            THE MODERATOR:  Questions for Chip and Calvin.
            David.

            Q.  Calvin, wondering any regrets about guaranteeing –
            CALVIN BOREL:  Colt run the race. He run like I thought he would.  I can’t take nothing away from him.  I love the horse to death.  He’s an animal like a human being, just like me.  He tried his heart out, went out, performed today.  I put him in a position to win and, you know, we just got outrun.  That’s it. The other horse maybe starting to come around more seasoned now and we got outrun today; don’t take nothing away from the little horse.

            Q.  Where will he be based at for his upcoming training, Chip?
            CHIP WOOLLEY:  We’re not sure yet. For the next week we’ll be at Churchill. We leave Monday morning, at Churchill for a week, and make a decision.  We’re going to stay around for Stephen Foster Day, and make a decision where to go from there.
            THE MODERATOR:  More questions for Calvin Borel or Chip Woolley?  Right here.

            Q.  Do you see this as sort of the beginning for you, kind of burst on the scene and now the horse is running great all three races, any long-term plan?  We going to see you back here every year?
            CHIP WOOLLEY:  Even Wayne (Lukas) don’t make it back every year.  I’m guessing not every year, but I hope to be back. It’s been a great run.  Had a wonderful time.  We’ll be back.  We’ll be scratching and trying to get back here again.

            Q.  Calvin, will you think twice before you ever guarantee again?
            CALVIN BOREL:  No.  Not really.  I thought I was on the best horse coming in.  And I was on the best horse.  Like I said, you know, when I rode him in the Derby, he run the last race and you hook him up again.  Right now he probably run a different race again.  I feel for my animals when I ride him.  I know he’s a good colt.  I know it was five weeks back to back.  If you’re not going to come here and ride with confidence, you may as well not come.  When I come to ride races like this, I come with confidence.

            Q.  Calvin, you never thought it could get bigger than what it was, what’s it been like?
            CALVIN BOREL:  It’s been a good road.  I wouldn’t change it for nothing in the world.  Thank you, Chip, and the owners and everybody for the opportunity to ride the colt back and still do business with them.  I promise, you give this colt a little time, you’ll see a little better horse.
            THE MODERATOR:  Whenever that next start is, Chip, you expect to be giving Calvin the leg up?
            CHIP WOOLLEY:  Absolutely, without a doubt.

            Q.  Do you have any questions for Tim Ice now that he’s doing the ranks of rookie classic winners, Tim Ice?
            CHIP WOOLLEY:  Not really.  I just welcome him in.  It’s been a fun run and he’s a deserving guy.  The guy works hard and does a good job.

            Q.  Chip, did the horse seem the same to you today as he has been?
            CHIP WOOLLEY:  Yes, I think he was. Like I said, he might have been a hair higher today coming in here, just a little more amped up.  But overall, he was the same colt that led up in the Derby. He run a great race.  I’ve got to watch the replay.  The horse run a great race. He placed himself a little more up in the race.  But other than that, I mean, he just run a great race and got beat, and you have to accept that and go on.

            Q.  Along those lines, did you have any misgivings when you saw him place himself up, placing himself forward?
            CHIP WOOLLEY:  I was a little concerned he was that close.  The closer he gets, the less he’s going to have him stretch.  Kind of concerned me, but that’s some of my job to make sure when he goes out, he’s not too high and he’s not dragging Calvin out there, too.

            Q.  He it seemed from my eye to be lugging out in the stretch?
            CALVIN BOREL:  No, he was getting a little tired in the end there.  But he wasn’t lugging out in the end.  I mean, it’s just a tiring track.  It’s kind of sandy, you know, that type of track isn’t like any other.  It’s not like a regular track.  It’s a sandy track.
            THE MODERATOR:  Is it possible that last couple of furlongs what we saw might have been a result of the three grueling races?
            CALVIN BOREL:  Exactly.  Might have took a little out of him the last two races, but he rode his heart out.
            THE MODERATOR:  Any final questions for Chip or Calvin?  Gentlemen, congratulations on a thrilling and unexpectedly wonderful Triple Crown run by Mine That Bird, and best of luck to both of you in the future.

            Q.  Chip, what time will you be at the barn in the morning?
            CHIP WOOLLEY:  I’ll be early.  I’ll be there between 5:30 or so.
            THE MODERATOR:  Gentlemen, thank you very much.  Congratulations, again.
           TRANSCRIPT PROVIDED BY ASAP SPORTS: ASAPSPORTS.COM

QUOTES FROM CONNECTIONS OF THE OTHER HORSES:

Todd Pletcher, trainer of runner-up Dunkirk (No. 2): "He ran well. I told Johnny (Velazquez, jockey) the same thing I told him all week - we wanted him to get into his rhythm. He made the lead very easily and we were very happy with that. At the three-eighths pole, we thought he might have been lucky."

John Velazquez, jockey of Dunkirk: "He battled every step of the way. He just got tired late, but he ran a huge race. He was definitely tired when I pulled him up, and he tied up. I hosed him down, and he seemed to be okay. I couldn’t believe I was on the lead early. There was no pace. The way he broke, he was already there on the lead, so I didn’t want to hold him back. I didn’t see Mine That Bird, and he came to me at the eighth-pole. Then, I got after my horse and he put up a real good fight and came back to beat Mine That Bird for second. He just ran his eyeballs out, but unfortunately, we just got beat."

Chip Woolley, trainer of third-place finisher Mine That Bird (No. 7): "He looked good coming off the track. He was tired, he was used, but he looked all right. I want to congratulate Tim Ice. He’s done a great job with the horse. We’re a little down, disappointed right now. I thought he might have moved a hair early, but I haven’t watched the replay. He ran a great race. It’s been a lot of fun. We’ll give him a good eight weeks off and let him freshen up. We’ll aim at something on the East Coast."

Calvin Borel, jockey of Mine That Bird: "I thought I had it won when I got to the quarter-pole. They came back to me pretty quick. When I moved, I was happy. No excuses. He ran his eyeballs out. He took me a little earlier. When I eased him out, the horses in front kind of stopped. He got out-run, no excuses. He had a lot of racetrack in front of him. He ran a good race. I don’t think he got tired. I might have let him get up earlier, but I wasn’t going to take the race out of him. Turning for home, I thought he was home-free. He ran his heart out. I put him position to win, and we just got out-run.. Don’t take anything away from the little horse.

(about guaranteeing victory): "No regrets. I thought I was on the best horse going in. I know he’s a good horse. He’s been five weeks, back to back. It’s been a good roll, and I wouldn’t change it for anything."

Kiaran McLaughlin, trainer of fourth-place finisher Charitable Man (No. 6): "It was a pretty fast pace going that far. I was confident he was going to run well. He ran well, but I thought he was good enough to win, so it’s disappointing."

Alan Garcia, jockey of Charitable Man: "He ran good, my horse. I saw Dunkirk; he went to the lead and I was waiting.. I saw Summer Bird make a move and I said, `OK, it’s time to go.’  My horse kept going, and then he got tired.  He ran a good race and I’m happy with the way he ran."

D. Wayne Lukas, trainer of fifth-place finisher Luv Gov (No. 5) and sixth-place Flying Private (No. 8): "No [excuse] that I can see, it’s sort of tough to watch it live. I want to see the replay.  I don’t know if we got a track that was conducive, but I don’t want to make any excuses, I would rather watch the replay first and see what it looks like. You know, when you watch it live up there and a mile and a half it’s pretty hard to find them out there.  I thought that horse was live that won it and I thought Dunkirk ran a beautiful race.  It wasn’t all that surprising, I thought Summer Bird had an excellent chance the way he’s been closing and we’ll salute the winners and rack ‘em up next year."

Julien Leparoux, jockey of Flying Private: "I had a very good trip actually, but my horse didn’t get there for me - I just ran out of horse."; Miguel Mena, jockey of Luv Gov: Unavailable for comment.

Eoin Harty, trainer of eighth-place finisher Mr. Hot Stuff (No. 3): "Edgar (Prado, jockey) had him in position to win, but ultimately, it wasn’t good enough"

Edgar Prado, jockey of Mr. Hot Stuff: "When Summer Bird made that move on the turn, no one was going to catch him."

Jerry Hollendorfer, trainer of ninth-place finisher Chocolate Candy (No. 1): "He pulled up good, but we had no excuses. We ship out on Monday."

Garrett Gomez, jockey of Chocolate Candy: Unavailable for comment.

Nick Zito, trainer of seventh-place finisher Brave Victory (No. 10) and 10th-place finisher Miner’s Escape (No. 9): "Brave Victory — I don’t know where, he got stepped on, but he’s got a big gash on his knee. He’ll be okay. He was moving nice the first time and he might have been a little closer. I’m not making excuses. Rajiv said Mine That Bird made a pretty quick move on them. I’m not taking anything away from the Birdstones [NOTE: Winner Summer Bird and third-place Mine That Bird were both sired by Birdstone, who won the 2004 Belmont Stakes with Zito as his trainer].

"I was kind of surprised that Dunkirk took the lead.  You know, I think if Miner’s Escape got that spot we might have run a little better but he had no excuse.  The horse stumbled a little but he recovered pretty quick. I’m not making excuses, but he had a bad break."

Jose Lezcano, jockey of Miner’s Escape: "He had a fair trip, he put himself in a good spot where I would want to be.  I thought I had striking position and at the end I don’t know if he got worn out or whatever, but he just didn’t have the winning touch."

Rajiv Maragh, jockey of Brave Victory: "I had the time of my life!  I had a good trip and he put himself in a good spot, unfortunately he just didn’t have that winning punch.  I’m a little disappointed, but he tried hard and I can’t be too mad at the horse or myself, it’s not everyday, you can’t win every race, but we had a fair shot at it."

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

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And then there were 17…while many of our voters have been unable to continue on the index, we are thankful for their contributions to the Paulick Report. The good news of course is the fan vote now has a larger percentage of the poll. So we now present you the Paulick Belmont Index by AmWest Entertainment!

Mine That Bird, after an impressive second at the Preakness, finally has earned the respect he clearly deserves. Had the Preakness been at a Derby length, many believe that the Derby winner would be walking into Belmont Park on Saturday with the opportunity to win the Triple Crown. Hindsight might make some wonder if Rachel entering the Preakness actually was the best thing for the sport now that she is not running in the Belmont which leaves us no compelling storylines outside of Calvin’s unique Triple Crown opportunity. Charitable Man, fresh from an impressive Peter Pan Stakes win, has shot up the index to the number two position followed by rumored talent Dunkirk.

Who do you think will take the prize on Saturday? Weigh in with your comments in the section below Ray Paulick’s top 10 picks and analysis, and the lists of our valued contributors. Also, we would like to thank AmWest Entertainment for continuing to sponsor the Paulick Triple Crown Indexes.

1-Dunkirk. Todd Pletcher may have the worst Kentucky Derby record in history, but he’s been pretty good in the Belmont the last three years (second and third in 2006, first with Rags to Riches in 2007, and third in 2008). In Dunkirk, Pletcher has a horse with a strong pedigree and was the 11-10 favorite to win the Florida Derby in just his third start. His trip in the Kentucky Derby was disastrous, but he’s well rested since then, been working in good order and should love the distance.

2-Charitable Man. Been pointed to this race by trainer Kiaran McLaughlin after skipping the Kentucky Derby. Loves the track, bred for the distance and has tactical speed to be effective. It will be interesting to see if this son of Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid is made the betting favorite over Mine That Bird on the strength of his Peter Pan victory.

3-Mine That Bird. The Preakness made me a believer in this gelded son of Birdstone, and conventional wisdom suggests being reunited with Calvin Borel and stretching out to 1 ∏ miles will be in his favor. But as I learned while watching races from veteran New York racing journalist Steve Haskin, Belmont is not a track for big closers. Let’s hope Mine That Bird stays healthy and has a long and productive campaign. He is an exciting horse with ability. I just don’t think the Belmont layout suits him.

4-Mr. Hot Stuff. Didn’t figure to be a precocious colt (by Tiznow) but could have a say in the outcome of some of the bigger races in the second half of the year. Another big closer who might be compromised by the track.

5-Chocolate Candy. It may be to his advantage to be training at Belmont since his fifth-place showing in the Kentucky Derby, but he’ll need to flash more tactical speed on Saturday than he’s shown in most of his previous starts.

6-Flying Private. What is it Charlie Whittingham once said: “Never say anything bad about a horse until he’s been dead at least 10 year”? I take back what I said going into the Preakness. Flying Private ran a much improved race from his dismal Derby and stands to improve even more in the Belmont. And, yes, D. Wayne Lukas can still train. I think we’ll be seeing a lot more of him in big races as this year moves ahead. He is stocked with 2-year-old talent in his barn.

7-Summer Bird. This other “Bird” had trouble in the Kentucky Derby while Calvin Borel guided Mine That Bird to a trouble-free victory on the rail-biased wet track. I don’t see him winning the Belmont, but son of Birdstone has already proven to be more than a useful horse.

8-Luv Gov. It was a tall order going from a maiden win on Derby day to the Preakness. This one’s just as big a challenge, but I’ll bet he’ll appreciate the added distance.

9-Brave Victory.  Closed a lot of ground to be third in the Peter Pan and trainer Nick Zito has upset the Belmont apple cart before. In this race, no outcome would shock me, but I won’t be betting on a win by Brave Victory.

10-Miner’s Escape: Speed can be dangerous at Belmont (Da’ Tara in 2008?), but I don’t think we’re going to see another wire to wire victory. There are too many others in this race with proven ability, and son of Mineshaft just hasn’t beaten much yet.

In a week that should have shown little movement in the rankings of the Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment, the Paulick Derby Index has actually shown some fluctuation as co-favorite Quality Road was withdrawn from the race on Monday because of complications resulting from a quarter crack. I Want Revenge, clearly now the favorite among our ballot stuffers, will lead a top ten that has lost some star power with several favorites not making the trip due to injury. That being said, this is still as strong a group as we have seen in years. The Derby this year should be an exciting one to watch with anywhere from 5-10 horses in legitimate contention.
 
You will also notice that the final week’s Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment features only the top ten contenders. We did this to put an onus on the top echelon of the field and make our last list more exclusive.

Finally, due to the fact that all ballots are submitted by 9 PM EST Monday night and well before Square Eddie’s withdrawal, you will see him on several ballots.
 
Will the PDI be the great predictor it portends to be on Saturday? Only time will tell.

1-Pioneerof the Nile. The Kentucky Derby is a tough race to win, even if everything goes your way, and it’s almost impossible for a horse to win if his training has been interrupted. Witness Unbridled’s Song, who battled foot problems coming up to the 1996 Derby, where he might have been the best horse but finished fifth while racing with a bar shoe on the problematic foot. If Quality Road’s connections felt their horse was sound and sent him to Louisville, I would have bet against him, simply because of the interruption in training. Everything has gone perfectly for Pioneerof the Nile: no interruptions in training due to bad weather or nagging injuries, and he is coming up to this race in the best form of his career. The Empire Maker colt has done everything asked of him, and I doubt trainer Bob Baffert would trade places with anybody.

2-I Want Revenge. It’s the horse, stupid. I’m no fan of trainer Jeff Mullins or the IEAH partners that bought into this son of Stephen Got Even, but I do like I Want Revenge. How can you not like a horse that does what he did to win the Wood Memorial after a disastrous start? The race before that, the Gotham Stakes, he showed enough early speed to press the pace and draw off in the stretch to a an easy victory. He is 0-for-2 against Pioneerof the Nile, though his first loss, by a nose in the Cash Call Futurity, was in his first start after breaking his maiden. I think he’ll be the betting favorite, but if Pioneerof the Nile beats I Want Revenge, people will be scratching their heads and wondering why.

3-Dunkirk. Todd Pletcher has kept the son of Unbridled’s Song under the radar, staying in Florida to train while the rest of the field is in Kentucky, and I don’t fault his logic that the track on Derby Day will likely be different from the surface everyone trained on in the weeks leading up to the race. Always seems to be that way. The colt has enormous talent, but there remains that issue of a lack of experience that has stopped many previous Derby contenders with a similar profile.

4-Friesan Fire.  One thing we know: if it rains as expected, and the track is sloppy, Friesan Fire will be one happy horse. The A.P. Indy colt seemed to relish the sloppy Fair Grounds surface while winning the Louisiana Derby in a cakewalk. His training up to the race for Larry Jones has been sensational, and the only thing his resume lacks is a victory over tough competition.

5-Musket Man. Beating Giant Oak in the Illinois Derby was no great accomplishment (doesn’t somebody always beat Giant Oak?), but it’s hard to fault a horse with five wins in six starts. Yonaguska colt seems like the grinder type—not much early speed or quick mid-race acceleration—but if he gets a good enough trip under Eibar Coa I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in the top flight at the eighth pole.

6-Papa Clem. Won the Arkansas Derby coming from off the pace, but Smart Strike colt has enough speed to be close up in the early going and maybe even make the lead if no one else wants it. Gary Stute learned from his father, Mel, the West Coast wizard of speed, so a late-week blowout of two or three furlongs might be used to sharpen up Papa Clem after a series of longer works.

7-Chocolate Candy. Has only one way of going, settle in near the back of the field and make a late run, so you know that racing luck will play a role for Candy Ride colt. Hollendorfer has won the Kentucky Oaks twice (Lite Light in 1991 and Pike Place Dancer in1996), proving he can win at the top level of the game while being based in California’s “B  Circuit” in the Bay Area. Training well, but has to have everything go his way for a victory.

8-Advice. Wise guys are asking how a horse that couldn’t win the Sunland Park Derby is going to win the Kentucky Derby.  Real Quiet, who came within a nose of winning the 1998 Triple Crown, couldn’t win in New Mexico, either, finishing third there as a 2-year-old in a pair of races. Advice demonstrated some quality last year, finishing second but DQed and placed third in the Arlington-Washington Futurity, and his last to first rally in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes was eye-catching. But races were on Polytrack, however, and he has yet to prove himself on a conventional dirt track (though the same can be said of Pioneerof the Nile).

9-Desert Party. I like the way the son of Street Cry has trained since arriving from Dubai, but I’ve seen previous Godolphin horses looking sharp in the morning before fading on Derby afternoon. If this one is any different, he’ll win without my backing at the windows.

10-Mr. Hot Stuff. Have always thought this Tiznow colt was going to develop into a good one, but it’s taken longer than expected. He’ll be running late in the Derby, but I think he looks more like a Travers winner.

Last weekend was the final opportunity for Derby hopefuls to make their case. As a result, this week’s Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment had two new entries with Square Eddie in a tie for 15th and Advice all alone in the 18th spot. The only other newbie on our list was a vote for Arkansas Derby 3rd place finisher Summer Bird.

Also significant was the tightening between the first and second place contenders I Want Revenge and Quality Road. This narrowing margin is due to Quality Road’s quarter crack not being as concerning as once believed.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. This was written before his first serious workout on the Churchill Downs surface, but I’m sticking with the Empire Maker colt unless and until he shows a complete disdain for dirt in his training up to the Kentucky Derby. Keeping Garrett Gomez in the saddle is a confidence booster because agent Ron Anderson is as sharp as they come.

2-I Want Revenge. Biggest question about Stephen Got Even colt’s two New York wins was who he beat. Not sure there was much quality behind him, but he was right there with Pioneerof the Nile in California and showed he likes the dirt. Versatile running style really a plus and jockey Joe Talamo is wise beyond his years.

3- Quality Road. Mystery horse as far as I’m concerned, because of the quarter crack. But based on that last New York workout and the fact the son of Elusive Quality apparently came out of it in good shape I’ve moved him up a notch over Dunkirk. Will he get the distance?

4-Dunkirk. Could there be a better backup rider to Garrett Gomez than Edgar Prado? No loss there in riding talent. Choice by Gomez and agent Anderson was a tough one, considering they were dealing with two high-powered trainers in Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher and two of the most prominent owners in the game in Ahmed Zayat and the Coolmore operation. Call me old school, but I think the lack of racing experience will go against both Quality Road and Dunkirk.

5-Friesan Fire. Larry Jones seems to have had a pretty well-defined plan for son of A.P. Indy and he’s sticking to it. Another one racing against history with his lengthy gap between races. Working solidly at Keeneland before shipping to Churchill Downs for final preparations.

6-Musket Man. Tampa Bay and Illinois Derby winner got vote of confidence from jockey Eibar Coa, but he’ll be facing a completely different caliber of horse when the Churchill Downs starting gates open.

7-Papa Clem. Smart Strike seems to keep siring one top runner after another, and Papa Clem is moving in the right direction as the first Saturday in May approaches. Gary Stute may be a Kentucky Derby rookie, but he’s no greenhorn, having gotten some big race experience when father Mel had Preakness winner Snow Chief and other top runners during a stellar training career.

8-Chocolate Candy. Interesting that a Santa Anita publicity staff survey of West Coast horsemen found a lot of support for this Candy Ride colt trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. Will have a lot of horses to come around at the top of the stretch when he makes his late run.

9-Advice. So what if his Coolmore Lexington win was on a Polytrack surface that has produced so many unpredictable results? He’s an improving colt in good hands who closed like gangbusters to beat a Polytrack-loving Square Eddie.

10-Desert Party. How he trains over the next 10 days will have a lot to say about his chances. It’s a very difficult transition to make, coming from Dubai to Kentucky, and will take a top horse to handle it. I just don’t think he’ll be up to the challenge.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. Empire Maker colt is scheduled to work at Santa Anita Wednesday for trainer Bob Baffert before shipping to Churchill Downs. Doesn’t get much respect for a horse coming into the Kentucky Derby off four consecutive graded stakes victories, but such is the influence of speed figures these days. I think speed figures are less relevant in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby than they are for everyday races because of the unique nature of the Derby.

2-I Want Revenge. Already stabled at Churchill Downs, which gives Stephen Got Even colt plenty of time to acclimate to the racing strip. One caveat: the track horses train over before the live meet begins is often dramatically different than the one they’ll have on Derby Day.

3- Dunkirk. Though I have nagging doubts in the back of my mind about why this son of Unbridled’s Song has been raced so sparingly, I’m confident he may be the best qualified of the Derby contenders to get distances of a mile and a quarter and beyond. How he trains over the next couple weeks will be key.

4-Quality Road. So far, so good on the patched up quarter crack. Unlike some owners and trainers who have run horses in the Derby that were physically compromised, I have confidence that neither Elusive Quality colt’s owner, Ned Evans, or trainer, Jimmy Jerkens, would do that. With the loss of speed horses The Pamplemousse and Old Fashioned, the pace scenario is shaping up in Quality Road’s favor.

5-Friesan Fire. The book on preparing a horse for the Kentucky Derby is being constantly rewritten, so I’m not discounting the A.P. Indy colt’s chances because of the seven weeks trainer Larry Jones is giving him between starts.  And while Louisiana Derby runner-up Papa Clem’s win in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby flattered Friesan Fire, I still don’t think he’s faced the toughest competition this winter.

6-Musket Man. Speaking of flattery, the win by General Quarters in the Toyota Blue Grass strengthened Musket Man’s Tampa Bay Derby triumph. There’s a lot to like about this son of Yonaguska, but the biggest question concerns his pedigree, specifically his propensity to get a classic distance.

7 Papa Clem. Good move by trainer Gary Stute to ship this Smart Strike colt to Oaklawn Park early to train up to the Arkansas Derby. Along with the two victories in New York by I Want Revenge, the win by Papa Clem shows the depth of this year’s California contingent, as both chased Pioneerof the Nile in earlier races.

8-General Quarters. I confess that I missed the trouble the Sky Mesa colt encountered when fifth in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I went back and watched the race again after hearing about it during Steve Byk’s “At the Races” radio show on Monday. Sure enough, he got the worst in that race and ran back to the strong form he showed in the Sam F. Davis while surprising Saturday’s Toyota Blue Grass Field. I don’t think that win was a fluke, but the Blue Grass field was a relatively unproven one.

9-Chocolate Candy. Was hurt more than anyone else by the lack of pace in the Santa Anita Derby, yet still closed strongly to be second to Pioneerof the Nile. Son of Candy Ride will need quick fractions to have a shot in the Kentucky Derby, and at this stage I’m not so sure he’ll get them.

10-Desert Party. It’s asking a lot of the Street Cry colt to ship halfway around the world twice in a six-month period. How he trains over the Churchill Downs surface over the next two and half weeks and how he looks will gives us a better idea of his chances to give Sheikh Mohammed his first win in the Kentucky Derby.