Posts Tagged ‘Dave in Dixie’

In our last week of three-year-old Triple Crown polls, there is little movement in our top ten. One newcomer to Paulick Belmont Index brought to you by Vinery LTD, Todd Pletcher-trained Interactif, debuts at 9. Additionally, Dave In Dixie makes his first PBI entry in 13th place.

We would like to take this opportunity to thank all of the voters who took part in this year’s Paulick Index. And a special thanks to Vinery LTD who made the entire series possible through their sponsorship of this feature. See you again next year!

By Ray Paulick
Thursday night marks the tipoff of the NBA finals, where the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers will be meeting for the 11th time in the championship round. It is one of the great rivalries in all of sports, beginning with the Wilt Chamberlain-Bill Russell era of the 1960s, continuing with Magic Johnson and Larry Bird in the 1980s, and carrying on now with Kobe Bryant vs. a deep and talented team led by Rajon Rondo.

It’s the kind of NBA Finals commissioner David Stern must have dreamed of: two great franchises in major markets certain to attract a huge prime time television audience and media attention from around the world.

It hasn’t always been that way. In the mid-1970s when CBS Sports broadcast the NBA, the finals were shown on tape delay, beginning at 11:30 p.m.  The NBA worked hard under David Stern to get back in the “major” league of sports.

And so it goes with horse racing.

This Saturday’s Belmont Stakes isn’t the Celtics vs. the Lakers. It’s more like the Seattle SuperSonics and Washington Bullets. Without the Kentucky Derby or Preakness winner in the lineup, it is attracting zero interest in the general and sports media. The Belmont is still the biggest thing going in horse racing on the first Saturday in June, but the horse racing world is getting smaller and smaller, and we need an infusion of new blood.

What can be done to make the Belmont more interesting? For starters, there needs to be some continuity from the Kentucky Derby to the Preakness to the Belmont. This year, we have no horses that will have run in all three events.

Three things need to happen.

First, the tracks must get together and work out a new schedule. Horses race less frequently today than they did 10, 20, or 30 years ago, and take more time between races. Blame it on the breed, permissive medication, or more tentative trainers. Times have changed. Virtually every single Kentucky Derby prep race has been moved to an earlier spot on the calendar, yet the spacing between the Triple Crown races has not changed. It must.

Second, no one really cares about a mile and a half race on the dirt. If they did, we would have more of them. Yes, I know, it’s a tradition. So was having American League pitchers step up to the plate and bat, something that hasn’t happened in 1973 when the designated hitter was introduced, and Major League Baseball seems to have done just fine without that tradition. One of the only redeeming qualities of the Belmont’s distance is the fact it may be the only race of the year where fans get to see the start of a race right in front of the Belmont grandstand. Put together a panel of horsemen to come up with a new distance for the Belmont.

Third, go out and get a Triple Crown sponsor and bring back two bonuses: one for winning all three races, and a second one for those years when there is no Triple Crown winner but the horse that performs the best in all three races gets a minimum $1-million bonus. That might at least add some interest to the race.

This year’s running will be the third time in 11 years the Belmont was run in the absence of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner. Get used to it. Or change.
 
Ice Box is one of two Grade 1 winners in the 2010 Belmont lineup and remains my top pick. Stately Victor is the other G1 winner, with Fly Down having won a G2, and Game on Dude and Interactif having G3 wins to their credit. It is not the most inspiring race, but, hey, the 1978 NBA Finals between Seattle and Washington was a seven-game thriller—to those who cared.

Two surefire signs of spring—Oaklawn Park’s Racing Festival of the South and Keeneland’s opening day–kick off the weekend stakes action Friday afternoon, and while the Fantasy at Oaklawn and Transylvania at Keeneland are well worth watching, it’s the big Kentucky Derby preps that will get most of the attention one day later. Those two Grade 1 races—the Wood Memorial from Aqueduct and Santa Anita Derby from Santa Anita Park—will be televised on NBC Sports, which will broadcast the Kentucky Derby four weeks from this Saturday on May 1. The Grade 2 Illinois Derby also will be contested on Saturday at Hawthorne, and that race has attracted an interesting field of horses hoping to enter the Kentucky Derby picture.

First things first. The Grade 2 Fantasy for 3-year-old fillies has lured Blind Luck from her California base following a disappointing third-place finish behind winner Crisp in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks on Santa Anita’s synthetic Pro-Ride surface. The multiple Grade 1 winner will be back on dirt for the first time since breaking her maiden by 13 1/4 lengths at Calder last June. The daughter of Pollard’s Vision is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and will be ridden again by Rafael Bejarano. The Fantasy goes at 6:47 p.m. (all times Eastern).

The Transylvania, a Grade 3 turf event for 3-year-olds scheduled to be run at 5:05 p.m., is the marquee event of Keeneland’s 10-race opening day program that starts with a 1:05 p.m. post. The 1 1/16-mile event should be a good proving ground for the unbeaten Christophe Clement-trained Nordic Truce, who comes off a minor stakes win on the Gulfstream Park turf after breaking his maiden on grass at Calder.

Onto the Derby preps. All eyes will be on Eskendereya in the Wood, which has a scheduled post time of 5:12 p.m. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt by Giant’s Causeway was so impressive winning the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes in front-running fashion that he moved to the top of many Derby Top 10 lists. He probably needs a top three finish in the $500,000 Wood to earn enough in graded stakes purses to crack the top 20 and ensure a spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs. He’ll have only five opponents in the nine-furlong Wood, which has been the most productive final prep over the last 40 years in terms of supplying Kentucky Derby winners. Foremost among those taking on the likely heavy favorite is Grade 3 Gotham Stakes winner Awesome Act. A third contender is Schoolyard Dreams, a close second to Odysseus in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby.

Lookin At Lucky, the 2009 2-year-old male champion, doesn’t need any more graded stakes earnings to make the Derby’s starting field, but Bob Baffert would like to see a strong effort from the Smart Strike colt in the Santa Anita Derby as the trainer anticipates going for his fourth victory in the Kentucky Derby next month. The Santa Anita Derby has several other contenders, including Sidney’s Candy, wire to wire winner of the recent Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes, along with two very talented graded stakes-winning California-breds, Caracortado and Alphie’s Bet. Post time is 5:36 p.m.

The Wood and Santa Anita Derby are both supported by terrific undercards with multiple graded stakes, including Aqueduct’s Grade 1 Carter Handicap, featuring the crack sprinter Munnings.

The Illinois Derby has attracted horses from all over the country hoping to punch their ticket to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. From Louisiana comes Backtalk, a speedster from the Tom Amoss barn, from California come American Lion and Dave in Dixie, who ran sub-par races in the San Felipe against Sidney’s Candy, and from New York comes Yawanna Twist, second to Awesome Act in the Gotham. This figures to be an intriguing race for 3-year-olds. Post time is 5:37 p.m.

There are plenty of other outstanding races on Saturday, including the Grade 1 Central Bank Ashland Stakes, an important Kentucky Oaks prep where 2009 2-year-old filly champion She Be Wild tries to get back on the winning track after a disappointing run at Gulfstream Park in her only 2010 start. Local favorite Win Willy headlines the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap.

Spring is in the air, and the racing season is beginning to heat up all around the country.

All eyes will be on last year’s champion fillies, Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, as they both make their 2010 debuts on Saturday. While the Steve Asmussen-trained Rachel Alexandra is set to race in the ungraded New Orleans Ladies Stakes at the Fair Grounds (approx. post time 6:15 e.t.), Zenyatta has her sights set on the Grade 1 Santa Margarita Handicap at Santa Anita. The John Shirreffs-trained Zenyatta will carry 127 lbs., conceding up to 19 lbs. to her opponents, which include Striking Dancer, Floating Heart and Pretty Unusual. The Santa Margarita is 1 1/8 miles on the Pro-Ride surface; the scheduled post-time is 6:40 e.t.

Also, on Saturday’s card at Santa Anita is the G2 San Felipe, a Derby prep at 1 1/16 miles on the main track. The line-up appears familiar with the first three finishers from the Feb. 13 G2 Robert B. Lewis in action again—Caracortado, Dave In Dixie and American Lion.

The other Derby prep of interest is the G2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park. Shipping in from California is 2009 2-year-old champion Lookin at Lucky, who will be making his 2010 bow for trainer Bob Baffert and regular rider Garrett Gomez. Others in the 1 1/16-mile Rebel with possible Kentucky Derby aspirations are Noble’s Promise, Cardiff Giant and Dublin. Three-year-old fillies are in the spotlight in the G3 Honeybee, also 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. Heading the field is Decelerator, a stakes winner at Oaklawn on Feb. 13. Brereton Jones’s homebred No Such Word and Beautician, runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, are entered as well.

Tampa Bay Downs will host a 12-race card on Saturday which includes three graded stakes. Eclipse winner She Be Wild will try to avenge her fifth-place finish in the Forward Gal in the G3 Florida Oaks (1 1/16 miles on turf for 3-year-old fillies). The G3 Hillsborough, for older females at 1 1/8 miles on turf showcases Mushka, the favorite at 5-2 on the morning line, Lady Shakespeare, and Tottie, who is undefeated in two U.S. starts. The Tampa Bay Derby (G3) has a contentious 7-horse field headed by slight favorite Super Saver. Making his 2010 debut here, the Todd Pletcher trainee last won the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs by five lengths in November.

The Gulfstream Park Handicap (G2) at one mile on the dirt for older horses will take place Saturday at the South Florida racetrack of the same name. The morning line favorite is This Ones for Phil, from Rick Dutrow’s barn. He will face two entries from Kiaran McLaughlin’s shedrow—Grasshopper and Past the Point, as well as Harlem Rocker (Todd Pletcher) and Cool Coal Man (Nick Zito).

Sunday’s Gulfstream program features the G2 Inside Information, a seven-furlong sprint for older fillies and mares on the main track. The top four finishers of last month’s Hurricane Bertie return for Inside Information. Kays and Jays was the winner of the 6 1/2-furlong Hurricane Bertie, who outfinished Tar Heel Mom, Warbling and Pretty Prolific.

While the top four stayed the same, there were some interesting developments in the Paulick Derby Index brought to you by Vinery LTD. The most obvious was Awesome Act’s giant leap to number nine in our poll. Last week, the British invader did not receive a single vote from our 29-vote panel.

While Alphie’s Bet picked up one 10th-place vote this week, the real winner was Caracortado, whose victory over the Sham Stakes winner in Santa Anita’s Cal Breeders is evidence that there may be more to this horse. Our voters noticed too, moving him up one spot to number five.

Through no recent fault of their own, Connemara and Drosselmeyer were both dropped from the rankings this week. They were replaced with a trio of horses in A Little Warm, Eightyfiveinafifty and Uptowncharlybrown. Each of these horses hold the distinction of only being on one voter’s ballot but placed in the fourth spot, a ranking high enough to find themselves tied at twenty.

Click here for a list of all the 2010 Derby preps and here for the current list of contenders by graded stakes earnings.

Following is Ray Paulick’s analysis and Top 10.

– Bradford Cummings

By Ray Paulick
Sometimes flattery does get you somewhere. In the case of the unbeaten California-bred Caracortado, he was flattered when another Cal-bred, Alphie’s Bet, won last weekend’s Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita. Two races earlier in his career, while still a maiden, Alphie’s Bet had finished second to Caracortado in the California Breeders’ Champion Stakes. Caracortado subsequently won the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes to extend his unbeaten string to five and he looks even better now after the Sham. As a result, the son of Cat Dreams moved up several spots on my list of Kentucky Derby contenders.

I try not to get oversold on winners of the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes, no matter how impressive they look, and Awesome Act looked mighty impressive, taking control of the race at the top of the stretch with jockey Julien Leparoux sitting like a statue. This was the first start on dirt for the European import trained by Jeremy Noseda, and the son of Awesome Again proved without a doubt he can handle that surface. I put Awesome Act at No. 10, bumping Buddy’s Saint from the list. Still, of all the Gotham winners since 1953, only Secretariat has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby.
 
A lot of questions will be answered by the big three Triple Crown preps this weekend: the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita, Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn, and Grade 3 Ta mpa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs. Foremost among those questions is how 2009 2-year-old champion Lookin At Lucky will handle dirt for the first time after racing exclusively on synthetic tracks in California when he makes his seasonal debut in the Rebel.

No matter how that question is answered, a lot of Top 10 lists figure to look much different next week following these three big preps than they do today. Here’s my current list of leading contenders:
1. Eskendereya. Giant’s Causeway colt will stay on top of my list till he loses. Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth looked to be the strongest win by a 3-year-old thus far this year.

2. Lookin At Lucky. Son of Smart Strike seems to have a bunch of people training him. There’s been a great deal of second-guessing about those slow workouts, but Bob Baffert knows more about how to get a horse to the Kentucky Derby in the right condition than all his critics combined. Interesting move sending the colt to Arkansas for the Rebel to see how he adapts to dirt.

3. Rule. Has all the graded stakes money he needs to ensure a spot in the starting line-up on the first Saturday in May, but Roman Ruler colts needs to be tested against better competition before then. Trainer Todd Pletcher juggling his 3-year-old stars in hopes of avoiding one another, and has talked about possibly sending Rule to Aqueduct for the Wood.

4. American Lion. Son of Tiznow should be a lot tighter for his second time around two turns this Saturday in the San Felipe after getting a bit tired down the stretch when hooked up in a speed duel with Tiz Chrome in Robert Lewis Stakes.

5. Dave in Dixie. Have always been a sucker for horses that close with the kind of intensity this son of Dixie Union has shown in his races (going back 30 years ago to the Cal-bred Rumbo, who finished second in both the Santa Anita and Hollywood Derbies and only needed an extra furlong  in order to win—at least in my mind—but could do no better than second to Genuine Risk in the Kentucky Derby). Dave in Dixie has looked very good in his works since finishing second to Caracortado in the Lewis and I think is sitting on an upset in the San Felipe.

6. Discreetly Mine. Awaiting the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, where he
cruised to victory last time out in the Grade 2 Risen Star.

7. Caracortado.  Benefited from a perfect trip last time out when rallying to an impressive win in the Robert Lewis, but good horses often can avoid trouble and get the trip because of tractable speed. Am still not fully convinced he’s the real thing.

8. Conveyance. Baffert said the Indian Charlie colt will stay in the U.S. rather than ship to Dubai for the U.A.E Derby and probably opt for the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby next out.

9. Dublin. For this weekend’s Rebel Stakes, son of Afleet Alex has picked up the riding services of Corey Nakatani, who will replace Terry Thompson after a second-place finish to Conveyance in the Southwest Stakes. A good horse in the hands of D. Wayne Lukas at this time of year can spell trouble for all his opponents. Certainly worth watching in the Rebel.

10. Awesome Act.  Looked very good winning the Gotham over a weak field and we really won’t know how good son of Awesome Again is until he gets a stiffer test in the Wood.

By Ray Paulick
Is it just me, or is this year’s Triple Crown trail looking more and more like a Winter Olympics short-track speedskating race, with lots of false starts, problems with the racing surface, unpredictable results, and a narrow focus on two principals from the East and West.
 
In short-track it was Apolo Anton Ohno of the U.S. and Lee Ho-Suk of Korea who seemed to be in contention in every heat. In horse racing, it’s the West’s Bob Baffert and the East’s Todd Pletcher getting most of the exposure.

There are no false starts in horse racing, but there have been several postponements due to weather, the Feb 27 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita being the latest of several races delayed this winter because of rough weather or bad track conditions. The Sham has been rescheduled for this Saturday, the same day the Gotham Stakes takes place at Aqueduct.

(Click here for the schedule of races leading up to the May 1 Kentucky Derby.)

The following weekend is when we should get a much better read on some of the top contenders, in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs, and Santa Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. Of particular interest is the Rebel Stakes, where Baffert is pointing 2009 Eclipse Award winner and once-beaten Lookin At Lucky in what would be his debut on a conventional dirt track. All of his previous races have been on synthetics in California. Among his anticipated rivals is the Pletcher-trained Super Saver, winner of last year’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. Both horses will be making their 2010 debuts.

While Baffert has won three Kentucky Derbys and Pletcher is searching for his first, there’s another trainer with a little Triple Crown experience who could have a say in the outcome of the Rebel. That would be D. Wayne Lukas, who trains Dublin, runner-up to the Baffert-trained Conveyance in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. The sage turf writer Bill Nack warned me not to overlook Lukas when he has a good one, and the son of Afleet Alex certainly has ability, as shown last year when winning the Hopeful at Saratoga and in his 2010 debut at Oaklawn.

The Tampa Bay Derby has developed into an important prep, too, and of great interest in that race will be Padua Stables Odysseus, winner of a Tampa Bay allowance last month by 15 lengths. The San Felipe will be a chance to sort out the West Coast’s top synthetic runners, but it won’t really answer any questions about their chances of winning on dirt at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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The saga of Ahmed Zayat’s Zayat Stables and the Fifth Third Bank that sued the stable took an interesting turn over the weekend when Eskendereya ran away and hid from nine rivals in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Just as Fifth Third was pushing for the authority to take over and manage the Zayat Stable assets, Eskendereya, one of those assets, exploded in value with his overpowering 8 1/2-length victory that vaulted him to the top of numerous rankings of Kentucky Derby contenders, including my own. At this stage of the dispute, it would be difficult to convince a bankruptcy court judge that a bank would do a better job managing a racing stable than the team that Zayat has assembled over the last several years, when he has ranked among the leading owners in North America, retired two top stallion prospects to the breeding shed (multiple Grade 1 winner Zensational and Kentucky Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile) and developed a leading candidate for the 2010 Kentucky Derby. The bank most recently dropped their demand for a trustee to be appointed to manage the assets.

So Zayat, despite filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, holds some pretty good cards in his hand right now, led by the ace of the stable, Eskendereya, whose value probably increased tenfold with that Fountain of Youth victory.

Under normal circumstances, offers from stallion farms would start flooding in on a horse like Eskendereya, considering how he dismantled a good field and the pedigree he carries (Giant’s Causeway out of a Seattle Slew mare). But if the horse is worth $5 million or more and Zayat decides to sell all or part of him, how much of a dent would that put on the reported $34 million he is said ot owe Fifth Third? Probably not enough to convince Zayat to sell, especially given his personal quest to win big races like the Kentucky Derby. Besides, if Eskendereya runs the table and wins the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown (and we’re not making that prediction), he’s probably worth tens of millions of dollars and closer to bailing Zayat out in one fell swoop.

On the other side of this rather expensive coin is the grim reality that what goes up also can come down. If Eskendereya is worth $5 million today after a Grade 2 victory, what would he be worth if he throws in a clunker next time out and fails to hit the board? Answer: a lot less than what he is worth today.

Zayat is a gambler, both at the betting windows and in the auction ring. He’s gambled tens of millions of dollars that he can increase the value of his bloodstock assets, and I would bet that he will not be willing to sell a cherished property like Eskendereya as long as there is more upside available. His track record in the horse business suggests he does not sell on the way up.

I think it goes without saying Fifth Third would like Zayat to monetize some assets, but he is currently holding the cards. 

Click here for Ray’s Under The Raydar segment

Following is my latest top 10 horses for the Paulick Derby Index:
 
1. Eskendereya. Leader of Todd’s Squad, perhaps the strongest group of horses multiple Eclipse Award-winning trainer Todd Pletcher has ever had in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby, where his futility is well documented. Pletcher will win more than one Derby before his career is over.

2. Lookin At Lucky. Still awaiting the 2009 2-year-old champion’s seasonal debut. Bob Baffert trained the son of Smart Strike cautiously last weekend when rain hitouthern California. If he has no prep on dirt prior to the Kentucky Derby, this one will be tough to gauge.

3. Rule. Pletcher has some time on the sidelines, thanks to the suspension he received as a result of a positive test at the 2008 Breeders’ Cup. He can use the down time to map out a road to the Derby for his various candidates, including this son of Roman Ruler, who has looked good beating up on relatively weak competition.

4. American Lion. Assuming Eoin Harty will keep Tiznow colt on synthetic surfaces until testing him at Churchill Downs. At this stage he looks to be part of a heavy speed brigade among the various contenders.

5. Dave in Dixie. Can’t wait to see this Dixie Union colt’s next start for trainer John Sadler. Finished with a tremendous burst in deep stretch in the Robert Lewis Stakes and figures to improve with racing.

6. Discreetly Mine. Pletcher-trained colt fits the profile of a Kentucky Derby winner in so many ways: a lot of racing experience at two, strong performances in graded stakes, and a pedigree (Mineshaft out of a Private Account mare) that makes you think distance is no problem.

7. Conveyance. Hard to knock an unbeaten horse, and this Indian Charlie colt has been highly regarded from the start; he sold for $240,000 as a yearling and probably brought 10 times more than that when he was purchased privately by Zabeel Racing earlier this year.

8. Dublin. Hopeful winner at Saratoga last summer returned to good form in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, chasing Conveyance to the wire while making up a lot of ground in the final eighth of a mile. That suggests the D. Wayne Lukas-trained son of Afleet Alex will be that much tougher when the distances stretch out.

9. Buddy’s Saint. Son of Saint Liam went from big time to small time in no time with his ninth-place finish in Fountain of Youth. But considering all the trouble the Nashua and Remsen Stakes winner had around the first turn when he was bounced around after rushing up along the rail into a hole that didn’t exist, it’s easy to see how the colt may have gotten discouraged. It’s the kind of race you just draw a line through and hope it wasn’t a reflection of his true ability.

10. Caracortado. Just like with Conveyance, it’s tough to knock perfection. He’s had relatively soft competition until last out in the Robert Lewis, when son of Cat Dream got the perfect trip behind dueling leaders

 Back when magazines mattered, there used to be this thing called the “Sports Illustrated cover jinx.” I’m starting to worry that it might be replaced by the Ray Paulick “Paulick Derby Index jinx.”
 
When we launched the 2010 edition of the Derby Index two weeks ago, my top choice three months out from the Kentucky Derby was Rick Porter’s Winslow Homer, a son of Unbridled’s Song who was coming off a victory in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. I liked the way he made three separate moves in that race and yet still had enough to hold off the favored Jackson Bend, a sign of versatility and maturity. Days later, however, he was off the trail with an injury and off my list.

Last week, Tiz Chrome occupied my top spot, not so much for what he had accomplished in his brief career but for what I thought he would do in last Saturday’s Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. But the son of Tiznow trained by Bob Baffert showed little fight in the final quarter mile of his first race around two turns after jumping out to an early lead.

So I look ahead to this weekend’s Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes with great apprehension as I move Buddy’s Saint to the top of my Derby Index list, and hope he can break the jinx. Following is my newly minted Top 10 in the wake of Caracortado’s upset win in the Lewis and Rule’s dominating performance in the Sam Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.

1-Buddy’s Saint. Comes off a good, solid six-furlong drill on Sunday for trainer Bruce Levine in preparation for Saturday’s Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. His pedigree suggests stamina, and continued success by this Saint Liam colt would be a fitting tribute to the late Allen Paulson, who produced the dam of Buddy’s Saint, the Blushing John mare Tuzia, runner-up in the 10-furlong Personal Ensign Stakes. Paulson never won the Kentucky Derby—not that he didn’t want to, but his breeding program was based more on producing horses with stamina, and that characteristic often comes at the expense of precocity.

2-Lookin At Lucky. The reigning champion (by Smart Strike) is working solidly in anticipation of his 3-year-old debut, expected to be March 13 in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. Trainer Bob Baffert didn’t have the best of weekends when Tiz Chrome was beaten in the Robert Lewis Stakes and Oaklawn Park had to postpone the Southwest Stakes Monday—for which Conveyance had been shipped from California and entered to run—because of bad weather.

3-Rule. The quality of Triple Crown contenders prepping at Tampa Bay Downs has been on the upswing in recent years, so Rule’s impressive victory in Saturday’s Sam Davis is more meaningful in my eyes than it would have been just a few years ago. The son of Roman Ruler will get a much stiffer test next out—trainer Todd Pletcher said he wants to jump him into Grade 1 competition—but the encouraging thing about this most recent win was the way Rule relaxed on the lead.

4-American Lion. Sometimes a defeat is better than it looked, and that’s how I’m going to categorize American Lion’s third-place showing in Saturday’s Robert Lewis Stakes, his first route race around two turns. He bobbled coming out of the gate, used up some energy to challenge for the lead after that, battled favorite Tiz Chrome into submission in midstretch, but was unable to hold off Caracortado and the fast-finishing Dave in Dixie. The son of Tiznow got some experience in that race and will be a much better horse next time around for trainer Eoin Harty.

5- Dave In Dixie. If I had a dark horse candidate right now it would be this John Sadler-trained son of Dixie Union who came flying in the final furlong to finish second to Caracortado in the Robert Lewis Stakes. He closed a ton of ground in his previous start, the Norfolk, though not hitting the board that day, and will benefit from the tightener in the Lewis. Not every strong closer gets better with distance and he could be a sucker horse, but I’d give this colt another race or two to see if he figures out what this game is all about.

6-Super Saver. Member of the WinStar Farm Triple Crown juggernaut who is approaching his 2010 debut for Todd Pletcher. If nothing else, this Maria’s Mon colt demonstrated his affection for the Churchill racing strip when he won the Kentucky Jockey Stakes there last fall.

7-Jackson Bend. I’m just not convinced this son of the Carson City stallion Hear No Evil has the stamina required to win the Kentucky Derby over 10 furlongs. Has a lot of ability and is in the hands of a trainer, Nick Zito, who knows how to bring horses up to a big race.

8-Conveyance.  Presumably will remain at Oaklawn Park for the rescheduled running of the Southwest Stakes, which was cancelled on Monday because of bad weather and will be run this Saturday.

9-Caracortado. We went a long time between geldings winning the Kentucky Derby (Clyde Van Dusen in 1929 to Funny Cide in 2003), but now that there have been two in the last seven (Mine That Bird in 2009), would it be that unusual for a third? California-bred son of Cat Dreams has done nothing wrong in winning all five starts, beginning with a maiden claimer and most recently with his Robert Lewis Stakes victory. Trainer Mike Machowsky (also the breeder) is more than capable, but my caveat for this Cinderalla story is that Caracortado got an absolutely perfect trip under jockey Paul Atkinson, sitting just off the pace of dueling leaders.

10-Tiz Chrome. From first to 10th in a week, this son of Tiznow disappointed in his first try around two turns, but he didn’t get an easy lead, and it’s hard to win wire to wire on Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride track under those circumstances. I’m for second chances.