Posts Tagged ‘daily paulick poll’
Tuesday, February 9th, 2010
As far as three-year-old races are concerned, last weekend proved to be a bit of a…washout (pardon the pun). Santa Anita postponed their Saturday card where PDI top ten contenders American Lion and Tiz Chrome were scheduled to go against each other in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Additionally, the Las Virgenes was to feature PDI number 12 Blind Luck, who could be this year’s superfilly version of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. Fortunately for race fans, these races have been rescheduled for this Saturday the 13th.
On a down note, last week also brought the first deletion from the Derby Trail as Winslow Homer was forced to the sidelines and will miss the Kentucky Derby due to an injury that will take two months to recover from according to his connections.
This week, we’d like to thank James Scully of Brisnet for joining the PDI and are happy to give the racing public a voice by introducing a vote via our Daily Paulick Poll.
Ray Paulick’s Analysis
1 - Bob Baffert and I have more in common than a head of grey (or white) hair. Neither one of us had the patience to sit through the old TV show “Short Attention Span Theater,” and we both have a tendency to get distracted by shiny metal objects.
Actually, in Baffert’s case, his distractions come from shiny, fast-moving objects like 2009 champion juvenile Lookin At Lucky, who caught his eye at Keeneland’s sale of 2-year-olds in training, or Tiz Chrome (shiny metal object!), impressive winner of a maiden race at Churchill Downs last fall for Whispering Oaks Farm.
Baffert acquired the latter colt, a son of Tiznow, following that Nov. 1 maiden win, and he now races for the partnership of the Lanni Family Trust, Mercedes Stable and Bernie Schiappa. (In truth, it was actually Schiappa, a car dealer who knows a lot about shiny metal objects, that first saw Tiz Chrome.) Tiz Chrome is one-for-one for his new owners, having scored impressively in a minor stakes at Hollywood Park Dec. 19. He hasn’t gone beyond 6 1/2 furlongs yet, so distance is a question, but this is a flashy colt with a lot of ability. We’ll obviously know more after his next start in this weekend’s Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita, rescheduled after last weekend’s washout.
2 - There’s a lot to like about Buddy’s Saint, a son of Saint Liam who took the late-season Nashua and Remsen Stakes in New York before heading down to Florida to winter. I’ve always preferred late-maturing 2-year-olds as Derby prospects to those who zoom to the head of their class earlier in the season and have little improvement left in them. We’ll find out in the upcoming Fountain of Youth whether the Bruce Levine-trained colt is continuing on the upswing.
3 - Lookin At Lucky is near-perfect after six starts, his lone defeat coming in a heartbreak loss in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Is this son of Smart Strike one of those early-maturing colts that the rest of his foal crop is catching up to? Recent history is not on his side.
4 - Super Saver is a colt with a lot of talent from the deep Todd Pletcher barn (we won’t get into Pletcher’s Derby numbers yet). Son of Maria’s Mon rated on the lead while winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, but it’s tough going wire to wire in the Derby.
5 - Jackson Bend finished a hard-trying second to now-sidelined Winslow Homer in the Holy Bull Stakes in his first start after being transferred to the barn of Hall of Famer Nick Zito, who does know a thing or two about winning the Kentucky Derby. Son of Hear No Evil (by Carson City) has a speed pedigree on top that should have some stamina influence from Cox’s Ridge on bottom side of his pedigree.
6 - I’m not going to second-guess trainer Todd Pletcher’s decision to send Rule down to Louisiana’s Delta Downs, where the son of Roman Ruler won the Jean Lafitte Stakes and Delta Jackpot, the latter Grade 3 race giving him more than enough money to qualify for the Derby field. Mine That Bird came out of Sunland Park to win last year’s Kentucky Derby, so maybe that will be the start of a trend of horses running for slots-rich purses en route to Churchill Downs.
7 - Indian Charlie colt Conveyance gives Hall of Famer Baffert three horses on my top 10 early-season Derby list. He’s opting to send this one to Oaklawn Park for Monday’s Southwest Stakes, following a hard-fought victory in the San Rafael at Santa Anita. Perhaps he’ll move up on the synthetic to dirt switch.
8 - American Lion is a son of Tiznow that gives WinStar Farm a strong early hand in the Triple Crown picture. Well-traveled colt is in the hands of Eoin Harty, who knows how to bring a horse up to a big race. Like Tiz Chrome, he’s only sprinted so far in his brief career, but with that pedigree (out of a Storm Cat mare) you’d have to think he’ll enjoy added distance.
9 - Blind Luck’s victory in the Hollywood Starlet to me was the most visually impressive win by any 2-year-old of either sex in 2009. Hard to believe cleverly named daughter of Pollard’s Vision started out her career in a $40,000 maiden claimer. Doubt trainer Jerry Hollendorfer will send her out against colts, but she does have an explosive turn of foot.
10 - Early in the winter of 2006 I considered Barbaro nothing more than an outstanding turf horse, so I’m not going to fall for that trap again with his full brother Lentenor, even though it took the son of Dynaformer three tries to break his maiden. Let’s see what he can do against winners.
Tags: A Little Warm, Aikenite, American Lion, Backwater Blues, Bank the EIght, Bickersons, blind luck, Brisnet, Buddy's Saint, Christine Daae, Conveyance, D'Funnybone, daily paulick poll, Derby Trail, Discreetly Mine, Drosselmeyer, Dryfly, dublin, Eightyfiveinafifty, Eskendereya, Hollinger, Hotep, Interactif, jackson bend, James Scully, kentucky derby, Las Virgenes, Laus Seo, Lentenor, Letsgetitonmon, lookin at lucky, Lost Aptitude, Maximus Ruler, Moojab, Noble's Promise, Odysseus, Paulick Derby Index, PDI, Pleasant Storm, Rachel Alexandra, Robert B. Lewis, Ron the Greek, Rule, santa anita, Sassy Image, Stay Put, Super Saver, Thiskyhasnolimit, Tiz Chrome, Uptowncharlybrown, Vale of York, vinery, Wildcat Frankie, Wiliam's Kitten, winslow homer
Posted in Paulick Derby Index | 9 Comments »
Monday, January 5th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
“It’s hard to get half the people in this industry to agree on what day it is,” a Central Kentucky breeder said to me a couple of weeks ago, shortly after the Breeders’ Cup announced suspension of the stakes supplement program for 2009. “I can’t believe 83% of the people voting in your poll agreed that the Breeders’ Cup board made the wrong decision.”
The day after the results of the Daily Paulick Poll were reported (83% opposed the decision by the board of directors not to use cash reserves to fund the program, 10% supported it and 7% were unsure), the Breeders’ Cup reversed field, reinstating the stakes supplements – at least for 2009. Breeders’ Cup president Greg Avioli said he did not “anticipate the fervor of the response” to the original decision to suspend the program. Apparently, the poll results reflected the response Avioli and board members received in the way of telephone calls and emails from nominators to the Breeders’ Cup from around the country.
This wasn’t the first time judgments ran strong on an issue on which readers of the Paulick Report were asked to vote. The polls are not scientific, but the results are quite interesting and we are flattered by the daily response. This much we’ve learned: You’ve got opinions.
The most recent results, in fact, represent the strongest sentiment of any of the 40 polls we have conducted since just before the Breeders’ Cup World Championships in late October. (Click here to see archives of all the Daily Paulick Poll results.) We asked, “Does the National Thoroughbred Racing Association provide a strong central organization to move racing forward in the future?” The results have been stunning, with 94% saying “no” and only 6% answering “yes.”
In some ways, the question about the NTRA mirrored the results of earlier polls regarding the state of the industry and thoughts about some of the organizations that lead it. In mid-November, we asked, “In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the Thoroughbred industry in the United States at this time.” The question was parallel to the right track/wrong track question the Gallup organization periodically asks of American citizens about the state of the nation.
According to our poll, 91% answered “dissatisfied,” suggesting the industry is currently on the wrong track. Of the remainder, 4% said they were satisfied and 5% were unsure. One e-mailer suggested that the 4% who said they were satisfied must not have understood the question.
Along those same lines, in early December we asked, “Are you confident the individuals in charge of the most prominent racing and breeding organizations in the United States are adequately addressing the problems the industry is currently facing?” That resulted in an 85% no confidence vote, with 10% saying they are confident in our industry leaders and 5% unsure.
A specific question about one of the year’s biggest stories, the creation of the NTRA Safety and Integrity Alliance, indicated skepticism among voters. While 8% agreed that it was a “major step forward in the areas of medication and safety issues and will result in significant improvements” and 27% called it a “good idea, but it’s too early to say whether or not it will be effective,” fully 44% voted that the alliance was “designed to keep the federal government from stepping in and taking action” on safety and medication. Another 22% said it will be “ineffective because the NTRA lacks authority to enforce its recommendations.”
Poll responses to questions about how to improve the economics of racing were less conclusive. For example, we asked which of three areas of growth were most important to the future success of racing: reinvigorating on-track business, expanding account wagering through TV or on-line video streaming, or getting subsidies from slot machines or other forms of gaming. Reinvigorating on-track business got the most votes, 45% of respondents, barely ahead of the 41% who believe account wagering is the industry’s best hope. Only 14% believe growth from slots/alternative gaming is the answer. A more specific question about slot machines ended with a four-way dead heat, with each of the following answers getting 25% of the votes: 1) slots are a short-term fix to boost revenue; 2) they are a long-term necessity for racing to be competitive; 3) they are a necessary evil; and 4) I oppose slot machines at tracks.
On the issue of simulcast revenue, the poll run in conjunction with an article by Fred Pope on what he calls “ Priority 1: Racing’s Business Model” found 63% agreeing with Pope that host tracks and owners where the live race is run should get the lion’s share of takeout revenue. Another 29% believe it should be divided equally between the host site and where the bet is taken, and only 7% support the current model that leaves most of the revenue from simulcast wagers with the bet takers.
The level of takeout has been hotly debated in the comment sections of Pope’s article and several other related pieces. Our only poll question on the subject came after the Kentucky Horse Racing Task Force recommended an increase in takeout to help fund additional staff for the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission. Only 17% agreed with that recommendation, with 83% opposed to an increase in takeout to fund the commission.
We’ve touched on many other areas in our polls. For example, 55% of voters opposed Breeders’ Cup putting all of the filly and mare races on the Friday program of the two-day championships, with 18% in support and 27% taking a “wait and see” approach; 49% opposed having the Breeders’ Cup dirt races run on a synthetic track, while 39% supported it and 12% unsure. In the breeding world, in mid-December, 65% of voters said stud fees had not been reduced enough, 31% said the reductions were “about right,” and 4% felt they had been lowered too much. A comparison of the three highest-priced new stallions of 2009 found that Henrythenavigator offered greater value and opportunity for success to breeders than Curlin and Big Brown. The votes were 52% for Henrythenavigator, 44% for Curlin and 4% for Big Brown.
Finally, in light of the depressed bloodstock markets and a downward trend in pari-mutuel handle in 2008, a year-end poll asked readers if they believe 2009 will be a better year. Only 24% said they feel 2009 will be improved from 2008, with 52% saying it will be worse and 24% believing it will be the same.
Naturally, we hope our readers will be proven wrong and that 2009 will be a year that the industry addresses some of its biggest issues: organizational structure, leadership and a new business model that reflects the reality that roughly 10% of wagers are taken on-track where a race is being run. It’s clear there is a high level of discontent currently running throughout the industry, but it’s just as obvious that the passion to have racing stage a comeback is equally strong.
Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report
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Tags: Account Wagering, advance deposit wagering, ADW, Big Brown, Breeders' Cup, Breeders' Cup World Championships, Curlin, daily paulick poll, filly friday, fred pope, gallup poll, Greg Avioli, henrythenavigator, Horse Racing, kentucky horse racing task force, National Thoroughbred Racing Association, NTRA, ntra safety and integrity alliance, Paulick Report, priority 1: racing's business model, racing's business model, Ray Paulick, right track/wrong track, Simulcasting, stud fees, synthetic racetracks, takeout, Thoroughbred breeding, thoroughbreds
Posted in Account Wagering, Breeders' Cup, Breeding, Horse Racing, Horse Welfare, Industry, Industry Organizations, Industry Reform, National Thoroughbred Racing Association, Simulcasting, Slot machines, Synthetic surfaces, Thoroughbred Business | 15 Comments »
Saturday, December 20th, 2008
By Ray Paulick
Fred Pope touched a nerve throughout the Thoroughbred industry with his commentary about what he called an “upside down” business model for simulcasting, where the track and horse owners putting on the live race get one-fifth of the takeout, the remainder going to the simulcast site, OTB or ADW taking the bet. If the bet taker/simulcast site is affiliated with a racetrack, its share is usually split with the local horsemen.
The article, published in the Paulick Report on Friday, was a reprint of a speech Pope gave earlier this month at the University of Arizona Symposium on Racing in Tucson, Ariz. The Lexington advertising executive wants to see racing adopt a new business model, one that pays the lion’s share of simulcast revenue to the track and horse owners putting on the live race. Pope has long been an advocate for horse owners to exert greater control over the terms of simulcast contracts.
Though his widely-read article has elicited nearly 90 comments from horse owners, breeders and gamblers whose opinions fall on all sides of the issue, participants in the Daily Paulick Poll voiced overwhelming disapproval of the current business model. To date, only 6% of those who voted say the current model is the right one. Sixty-five percent believe the lion’s share of the simulcast proceeds should go to the track and owners putting on the race, while 27% feel it should be divided evenly between the live track and horsemen and the simulcast site, OTB or ADW and affiliated horsemen at that end.
Comments from horseplayers focused largely on what they believe is an onerous level of takeout, but many of them also feel disenfranchised or taken for granted by an industry that once had a monopoly on gambling and has not done a very good job of competing in this new world of Indian casinos, riverboats, and online gaming, whether it be poker or sports betting through offshore bookmakers. Not many of the horseplayers who commented seem to have much sympathy for horse owners who spend at least $2 billion a year on training costs and compete for half that amount in purses.
Many of those horseplayers want to see takeout reduced, especially on exotic bets such as exactas, trifectas, superfectas or multi-race wagers where the takeout often exceeds 25%. Some of them feel ADW companies should get a large enough share of the takeout so they can be profitable and still offer rebates to their best customers.
The problem with that, as I see it, is that the stronger position the ADW companies have, the greater a percentage of handle will migrate from on-track business to phone or internet wagering. We’re already seeing horseplayers at the track making wagers through ADW companies because some of them will offer rebates. As handle moves from on-track to ADWs, there is less retained revenue for the tracks and local horsemen to put on the show. Less revenue means lower budgets for marketing, capital improvements and technology advancement for tracks, and less incentive for horse owners to stay in the game.
Pope’s proposal may not be without flaws, but the current model clearly is upside down, and any business structure that puts more power in the hands of the bet takers is going to make it even worse.
Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report
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Tags: Account Wagering, advance deposit wagering, ADW, daily paulick poll, fred pope, Horse Racing, horseplayers, off-track betting, otb, pari-mutuel wagering, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick, symposium on racing, takeout, university of arizona symposium on racing
Posted in Account Wagering, Industry Reform, Simulcasting, Wagering | 56 Comments »
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