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By Ray Paulick

When IEAH Stables bought an interest in 2007 Remsen Stakes winner Court Vision from WinStar Farm earlier this year, the son of Gulch had the look of a Derby horse. He eventually lived up to that billing, though his Grade 1 Derby victory came not on the dirt at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May but on the Hollywood Park turf on the last Sunday in November. Under Ramon Dominguez, who earlier in the day won the Grade 1 Matriarch Stakes with Godolphin Racing’s Cocoa Beach, Court Vision made an eye-catching run from last at the top of the stretch to win the Hollywood Derby by three quarters of a length, defeating Cowboy Cal and Midships.

Trained by Bill Mott, Court Vision covered a mile and one-quarter on firm turf in 2:01.43 as the 7-2 second choice in the betting. It was his fifth win in 12 starts and first in a Grade 1 event.

After winning three of four starts as a 2-year-old, Court Vision regressed somewhat on the road to the Triple Crown, finishing third in both the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park and Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. After a disappointing 13^th behind IEAH’s Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby, Mott switched the colt to turf, where he finished fourth in the Colonial Turf Cup and an unlucky second, beaten a nose, in the Virginia Derby, both races at Colonial Downs.

Back on dirt in the Travers at Saratoga, Court Vision was never a factor when sixth behind WinStar’s Colonel John, then ended his six-race losing streak with a victory in the Jamaica Handicap on turf at Aqueduct (the first time Dominquez rode him).

Muny set the pace from the outside post position in the Hollywood Derby, going a half mile in :49.41, six furlongs in 1:13.40, and a mile in 1:37.56. Cowboy Cal overtook the frontrunner in midstretch, but didn’t have enough to withstand the fast-finishing Court Vision, who caught him in the final strides. Midships closed well to get third. Based on Court Vision’s position at the one-mile call on the Equibase chart, he flew home his final quarter-mile in about 22 3/5 seconds.

Bred in Kentucky by the W.S. Farish and Kilroy Thoroughbred Partnership, Court Vision was produced from the Storm Bird mare Weekend Storm, a half sister to leading sire A.P. Indy. 

Video of the Hollywood Derby.

Earlier in the Hollywood Park Turf Festival program, favored Cocoa Beach rallied  in the stretch to catch the front-running second-betting choice Precious Kitten and win the Matriach by three-quarters of a length. Juddmonte Farms’ Visit was third.

Cocoa Beach, second to Zenyatta in her last start, the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic, was trying the grass for the first time since her maiden victory in Chile in January 2007. She was purchased by Godolphin last year and sent to Dubai, where she won two of four starts and was third in the UAE Derby. The 4-year-old daughter of Doneraile Court won her first two American starts, including the Grade 1 Beldame at Belmont Park, before running second in the Breeders’ Cup on the synthetic Pro-Ride track. She is trained by Saeed bin Suroor. Cocoa Beach covered the mile on firm turf in 1:35.49.

Matriarch chart.

Video of the Matriarch.

Video of the Hollywood Turf Festival graded races.

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Top to bottom, this may not be the most talented group of Breeders’ Cup horses that’s ever been assembled, but it’s the biggest handicapping challenge I can ever recall, especially considering new races like the Marathon, Turf Sprint, Dirt Mile and Juvenile Turf.

As mentioned yesterday, the Breeders’ Cup Web site has loads of good information, including race schedules and post times, wagering menu, free Equibase past performances, a useful wagering calculator, a list of simulcast locations and advice for beginners. You can bet the Breeders’ Cup races through any of the approved account wagering companies.

My handicapping philosophy is to beat the favorite whenever possible, since the average percentage of winning favorites is around 33%. You might discern from the following selections that I think the Europeans are going to have a big day on Saturday. The factors leading me to believe that will be true are 1) the synthetic surface that some Europeans train on; 2) the tighter medication rules that specifically ban anabolic steroids for the first time; 3) the quality of European horses being sent to this year’s event.

Here’s my advance prognostication on the day’s nine championship races. Good luck and safe racing to all.

Special note: please be sure to check back in to the Paulick Report, beginning around 3 p.m.  Eastern, for my live blog of Filly Friday. I’ll also be live blogging Saturday’s nine races, beginning at 1 p.m. Eastern.

Marathon
This looks like a two-horse race between European runner Sixties Icon and Zappa (whose namesake, the late rocker Frank Zappa, was the founder of the Mothers of Invention and was a real-life sixties icon).  That works for me, but it’s an all chalk exacta. I give the edge to Sixties Icon, in part because of jockey Frankie Dettori’s experience edge at mile and a half races. Zappa is sharp and may try to steal the race under Garrett Gomez. Muhannak has plenty of synthetic track experience in Europe and likes the distance. Cedar Mountain  will be closing late.

Selections: 1-Sixties Icon 2-Zappa 3-Muhannak 4- Cedar Mountain

Turf Sprint
One of the great things about the Breeders’ Cup is finding a horse you absolutely love and then discovering that it’s a longshot. That’s the case with Only Answer, a French-based filly in the care of the legendary horseman Andre Fabre, who is in top echelon of Breeders’ Cup trainers. I think she has an excellent chance to beat the boys in this spot, and Santa Anita’s ace morning line maker Jeff Tufts has her pegged at 20-1 on the morning line. Jockey Olivier Peslier, in my opinion, is as good a big-race rider as there is in the world, and he knows this filly well. The downhill turf course is a tricky one for horse and rider, with the run across the main track causing difficulty for some. It’s one of the best “horses for the course” plays in racing, which makes local runners California Flag and Get Funky formidable challengers in here. Fleeting Spirit has a lot of class, as does Diabolical, either of whom are good enough on their best days to win. I’m going for the price play.

Selections: 1-Only Answer 2-Fleeting Spirit 3-Get Funky 4-Diabolical

Dirt Mile
The status of Mast Track is in doubt as I write this, and I would be very surprised if trainer and owner Robert Frankel runs him on Saturday. If he is scratched, that’s going to make things a lot easier for Well Armed, a Tiznow gelding who seems to have found a perfect spot here, though I’d prefer  him to have drawn more of an inside post position. The Eoin Harty runner can go to the lead or rate, depending on the circumstances, and the mile distance suits him perfectly. Surf Cat should be more effective at this distance, too, after running dull races in his last two starts. Bruce Headley has tightened the veteran up with some quick works. No one seems to have more confidence in his horse than Wayne Catalano, and there’s a lot to like about Lewis Michael, who grabs the advantageous rail post. Pyro’s a tough one to assess in here. His only synthetic track try at Keeneland was a disaster, but all synthetic tracks aren’t the same.

Selections: 1-Well Armed 2-Surf Cat 3-Lewis Michael 4-Pyro

Turf Mile
Irish-bred filly Goldikova has made few mistakes in her eight-race career for French trainer Freddie Head, who has enough confidence to run her against colts here at her best distance. She’s drawn perfectly in the four post and has big-race rider Olivier Peslier in the saddle. It’s not the strongest Mile field we’ve seen. Shakis is a game old-timer who always finishes with a rush. If Alan Garcia can avoid traffic problems from the rail, he won’t be far away at the finish. Kip Deville ran a puzzler last time out in Canada on a yielding track for Rick Dutrow. I’d throw that race out as he goes for a defense of his crown. U S Ranger doesn’t win very many but usually gets up for a share of the money and has been facing tough company all year. Whatsthescript got an impossible post position on the outside.

Selections: 1-Goldikova 2-Shakis 3-Kip Deville 4-U S Ranger

Juvenile
Post positions really come into play here, with the two horses I like the most, Bushranger and Midshipman, drawn way outside, a distinct disadvantage in the relatively short run to the first turn. Munnings, who has chased juvenile division leader Vineyard Haven (not entered in the Breeders’ Cup by trainer Robert Frankel) in his last two starts, draws the much friendlier rail post for his first try around two turns. That’s enough to give him the edge in this spot for trainer Todd Pletcher, especially in a race without much early speed. The son of Speightstown should get the best trip under John Velazquez. Bushranger  may be the best horse and he’ll have to be overcome his 11 post. Street Hero has been steady since breaking his maiden in June and remains in top form for Myung Kwon Cho.

Juvenile Turf
Westphalia looks to me like the obvious choice here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is bet down to near favoritism from his 5-1 morning line. He’s in top form and has had a bit of a rest since his last win at Doncaster in mid-September. Coronet of a Baron obviously has is precocious and talented, and the shift from synthetic to turf by trainer Eoin Harty is an interesting move. Darley already has Midshipman going in the Juvenile and this gives them a good chance to sweep the two races. Of course, arch-rival Coolmore has Bushranger in the Juvenile and Westphalia in here, giving them a strong hand as well. The Darley-Coolmore rivalry will be interesting to follow throughout the two days. Bittel Road is unbeaten on turf and is the morning line choice, but he hasn’t seen this kind of competition yet. Donativum is in the more than capable hands of trainer John Gosden, who knows how to have a horse at peak form when it matters most.

Selections: 1-Westphalia 2-Coronet of a Baron 3-Bittel Road 4-Donativum

Sprint
Smallest number of runners in this race since 1986, obviously a byproduct of two new races: the Filly and Mare Sprint and Dirt Mile. I doubt that defending champ Midnight Lute scared anyone away based on his only start of the year, a dismal 10^th in the Pat O’Brien at Del Mar. He’s worked sensationally for Bob Baffert since then, but it’s hard to see him up sharp enough to beat the likes of Street Boss or In Summation. I give the clear nod here to the California horses, led by the Bruce Headley-trained Street Boss. My intuition tells me Bruce Headley didn’t have the son of Street Cry cranked to the max for the Ancient Title when second to Cost of Freedom, and recent works suggest he’s ready to roll here. In Summation is a thorough professional who can be counted on to run his race. Midnight Lute will be running late. Fatal Bullet has the best chance of upsetting the local horses’ applecart.

Selections: 1-Street Boss 2- In Summation 3-Midnight Lute 4-Fatal Bullet

Turf
While Europe’s bigshots were locking horns in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Oct. 5, Mike de Kock was bringing the top-class Eagle Mountain back to the races from a fractured pelvis and year layoff at Newmarket. The Rock of Gibraltor colt won the comeback, a Group 3 race at Newmarket, and some big money subsequently came in on the horse with a British bookmaker  to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf. The former Coolmore/Aidan O’Brien runner looked sharp in a morning spin at Santa Anita is primed for a big effort. Soldier of Fortune comes off a hard-fought defeat for O’Brien in the Arc. That was just his third race of the year and he might have another good one in him. Winchester turned in a monstrous performance at Arlington Park to win the Secretariat for Dermot Weld, far surpassing his European form. This is a big step up, but he showed a fondness for American style racing in that effort. Conduit completes my all- European superfecta. American turf horses appear weak again this year, but let’s not forget how English Channel romped in the 2007 Turf over supposedly superior Europeans.

Selections: 1-Eagle Mountain 2-Soldier of Fortune 3-Winchester 4-Conduit

Classic
By the time the finale rolls around, we should have a pretty good idea how European turf horses have adapted to Santa Anita’s synthetic Pro-Ride surface. I don’t have the benefit of knowing that right now, so I can only speculate how Duke of Marmalade, Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass will take to the track. But I guess we can say the same thing about Curlin, who has trained well on the track but never raced on a synthetic strip. Curlin may be the best horse we’ve seen in the last 10 years, in terms of his accomplishments if not his brilliance. But based on his last two victories over relatively weak competition, I think he’s beatable here. But who will beat him? Go Between, a synthetic track specialist who’s logged thousands of miles this year going from coast to coast? Casino Drive, the unbeaten but lightly raced, Japanese-trained sibling to two previous Belmont Stakes winners? Colonel John, the best 3-year-old in training following the retirement of Big Brown? The Aidan O’Brien duo of Duke of Marmalade and Henrythenavigator, who have combined for nine Group 1 victories on European turf this year? All have a realistic chance, but I’m taking the John Gosden-trained Raven’s Pass for the upset under Frankie Dettori. The Elusive Quality 3-year-old colt hasn’t gone beyond a mile, but Gosden knows from his previous experience in California that most top-class Europeans can stretch their ability out in the U.S. Raven’s Pass  has had a month off since defeating Henrythenavigator in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and is in absolute top form. Curlin will run hard as always, but he’s had a long year for trainer Steve Asmussen. Go Between is a steady performer for Mott, who’s handled him intelligently all year. Colonel John may be the best 3-year-old, but the jury is still out on how good this year’s sophomore crop really is.

Selections: 1-Raven’s Pass 2-Curlin 3-Go Between 4-Colonel John

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WinStar Farm’s Colonel John may have had an advantage over his 11 rival 3-year-olds in last Saturday’s $1-million Travers Stakes when it was learned that jockey Garrett Gomez was carrying an angel on his shoulders.

Gomez, who miraculously put Colonel John’s nose on the wire millimeters in front of Mambo in Seattle (who was in front a jump before and a jump after the finish), was wearing WinStar’s green and white silks that were bearing the initials “KC,” in memory of Karri Casner — the daughter of WinStar co-owners Bill and Susan Casner — who was among the 202 people killed in the Oct. 12, 2002, terrorist bombings on the Indonesian island of Bali.

The WinStar silks designed in memory of Karri Casner are not technically permitted at New York Racing Association tracks, the only ones in the United States that follow the strict guidelines established by the Jockey Club for racing colors. No lettering or asymmetrical designs are permitted on silks at NYRA tracks, according to the guidelines. Somehow, the “wrong” silks ended up on Gomez before the Travers, a race that resulted in the closest finish of a New York stakes since 1991, according to NYRA’s photo finish camera operator.

Karri, the younger of two daughters of Bill and Susan Casner, was just 23 years old when she was killed during a visit to Bali. A day doesn’t go by when her parents and her older sister, Kayce, don’t think of her. The Casners designed the silks with the “KC” on the left shoulder as a memorial to Karri. The idea came from Kenny Troutt, who with wife Lisa are partners in WinStar with the Casners.

Colonel John was named after Army Reserve Lt. Col John Geider, a longtime family friend of the Casners and Troutts. Geider assisted the Casners in the aftermath of the bombing when they flew to Bali in search of their missing daughter.

Kathy Harty, wife of Colonel John’s trainer Eoin Harty, produced a short video documentary of Travers day that can be viewed at Youtube.com. The video, set to the sound of Green Day’s “Time of Your Life,” concludes with two photographs of Karri Casner.

Perhaps she was.

By Ray Paulick

WinStar Farm homebred Colonel John won Saturday’s Grade 1 Travers Stakes by a nose in a head-bobbing finish with William S. Farish and Mrs. William Kilroy’s Mambo in Seattle. Pyro, the 7-2 favorite, finished third, 5 1/4 lengths back, with Harlem Rocker fourth in the 139th running of the $1-million "midsummer classic" for 3-year-olds.. Time of the race on a fast track was 2:03.20 for the mile and a quarter on a fast track.

(VIDEO)

(Today’s Saratoga charts)

Colonel John, breaking from the two post, saved ground as Belmont Stakes winner Da’ Tara set all the fractions under Alan Garcia, the opening quarter-mile in :23.91, the half-mile in :48.06 and six furlongs in 1:12.12. When the field turned for home, Gomez had to alter course sharply behind Da’ Tara, then went to his outside, taking the lead inside the furlong pole. Mambo in Seattle, under Robbie Albarado, was forced to take the overland route, rallying from well off the pace but avoiding a scrum to his inside at the head of the stretch that may have compromised the chances of Harlem Rocker and Pyro. The Kinbmambo colt ranged up alongside Colonel John nearing the sixteenth pole, and the two raced to the wire together. Colonel John appeared to be edging ahead, but Mambo in Seattle made one final, valiant run, losing the victory in a head-bob. The official margin was a nose, but the photo finish showed it to be no more than an inch.
 
The victory was Colonel John’s first on a traditional dirt track. He had previously won four of eight starts, all on synthetic tracks, including three stakes. He came into the Kentucky Derby off a half-length victory in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, and was the 9-2 second choice behind Big Brown at Churchill Downs. The son of Tiznow out of the Turkoman mare Sweet Damsel was never a factor that day, finishing sixth, 14 1/4 lengths behind Big Brown. He skipped the rest of the Triple Crown, then returned to action with a third-place finish behind Tres Borrachos July 12 in the Grade 2 Swaps Stakes at Hollywood Park.

Colonel John did all of his serious preparation work before the Travers on Polytrack at Del Mar for his trainer, Eoin Harty. The win could set up a rematch between Colonel John and Big Brown in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park, which will be contested on that track’s new Pro-Ride synthetic surface.

The winner paid $10.40 and earned $600,000 to increase his earnings to $1,468,830.

IN THE GRADE 1 NETJETS KING’S BISHOP,  a race for 3-year-olds going seven furlongs that immediately preceded the Travers, Team Valor International and Vision Racing’s Visionaire, benefited from a hot pace and rallied from last to first to win going away by 2 1/4 lengths under Alan Garcia.

Gentleman James, Golden Spikes and 8-5 favorite J Be K threw down fractions of :22.39 and :44.73 for the opening half mile, with J Be K taking a narrow advantage when the 10-horse field turned for home, and it looked like anyone’s race. Desert Key, had to await room on the inside, then found an opening to gain the lead in the final furlong, but Garcia had Visionaire picking ‘em and mowing ‘em down on in the middle of the track after rallying widest into the stretch.

The son of Grand Slam hit the front in the final 70 yards and drew off, with Desert Key holding second by a nose from I’m So Lucky. The winner, bred in Kentucky by Eaton Sales co-owner Reiley McDonald and trained by Michael Matz, paid $15.60 for the win after covering seven furlongs on a fast track in 1:21.94.

The win was Visionaire’s fifth from 10 starts and second starts victory, following a win in the Gotham at Aqueduct in March. Visionaire ran fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes and 12^th behind Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby.

SHADWELL STAALE’S IRISH-BRED SHAKIS won the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch by three parts of a length over War Monger, with Operation Red Dawn finishing third. The 8-year-old by Machiavellian was ridden by Alan Garcia and is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. He covered nine furlongs on firm turf in 1:46.78.