Posts Tagged ‘candy ride’

UPDATE: Santa Anita has cancelled its Saturday racing program due to heavy rain and ongoing drainage problems with its main track Pro-Ride surface.

On Saturday, Santa Anita’s 10-race program will feature five stakes races, including the Grade 1 Las Virgenes and a pair of Grade 2s, the Strub and the Robert B. Lewis. The Las Virgenes has attracted a field of six 3-year-old fillies to go once around the all-weather track. Blind Luck will be heavily favored based on her final three starts in 2009—she won the G1 Oak Leaf before finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and ended the year with a seven-length win in G1 Hollywood Starlet. Among those taking on Blind Luck will be Crisp, winner of G3 Santa Ysabel, and Switch, third in G2 Santa Ynez.

Trainer Bob Baffert has his eyes on a couple prizes Saturday. If Misremembered can prove himself in the Strub, he’ll head for the Santa Anita Handicap, more familiarly known as the Big ‘Cap, next month. Misremembered, a ridgling son of Candy Ride last ran second to M One Rifle in the G1 Malibu. The nine-furlong Strub, for 4-year-olds, has also attracted Smart Bid and Rendezvous, second and third, respectively in the G2 San Fernando.

Baffert hopes to have yet another Kentucky Derby prospect with Tiz Chrome. The son of Tiznow comes into the 1 1/16-mile Robert B. Lewis with just two starts, but his debut at Churchill Downs and his winning performance in the Stuka Stakes at Hollywood were eye-catching. Facing him will be Eoin Harty-trained American Lion, also a son of Tiznow, who won the Hollywood Prevue.

Across the country, Gulfstream Park will be hosting three graded stakes, highlighted by G1 Donn Handicap, for older horses going 1 1/8 miles on the main track. Quality Road is high weight at 123 lbs., based on his powerful performance in G3 Hal’s Hope where he drew off in the final furlong defeating You and I Forever by nearly three lengths. Quality Road spots six to nine pounds to his nine rivals which include the first four finishers of the Jan. 10 Ft. Lauderdale (G3), as well as You and I Forever.

Hoping to make his 2010 debut a winning one, Court Vision will face five other older horses in the nine-furlong G1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. Rick Dutrow trains Court Vision, who ran third in this event last year, losing to Kip DeVille by less than a length. From Todd Pletcher’s barn comes Take the Points, a two-time Grade 1 winner in 2009.

Also carded at 1 1/8 miles on the turf is the G3 Suwannee River for older fillies and mares. None of the twelve starters in the body of the race have won a graded stakes, making this a very tough spot to find a favorite. One of the strongest contenders may be Lady Shakespeare, winner of four consecutive races at Woodbine in 2009. Christophe Clement has won the Suwannee River four times and has two entered here—Cable and Astrologie.

In deference to the Super Bowl on Sunday, Santa Anita has an early post, with the G2 San Antonio Handicap to be run at approximately 2:00. Carded as the 7th of eight races, the 1 1/8-mile San Antonio is a major prep for the upcoming Big ‘Cap. High-weighted at 120 lbs. is Richard’s Kid, upset winner of the Pacific Classic at Del Mar last September. The Bob Baffert trainee then ended his 2009 campaign with a sixth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Also targeting the Big ‘Cap is Mast Track, winner of the G3 Native Diver Handicap at Hollywood Park in December.

With the Sunshine Millions series taking place on Saturday at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita, graded stakes racing is light this weekend, but there are still a couple of interesting contests in the works.

On Saturday, Sam Houston Race Park will host the G3 John B. Connally Turf Handicap. The only graded stakes on the Sam Houston calendar for 2010, the 1 1/8-mile event has attracted a contentious field of 14 starters. The tepid favorite at 4-1 on the morning line is Orientate Express who exits the Zia Park Distance Championship with a runner-up performance. Going Ballistic would appear to be a formidable opponent here; he also last ran in the Zia Park Championship, finishing fourth, about seven lengths behind Orientate Express. His race previous to that, however, he put in a strong rally from the back of the pack to finish third in the G2 Hawthorne Gold Cup. And what would a stakes race in Texas be without an entry from the Steve Asmussen barn? He has a coupled entry here—Ablaze with Spirit and Red Rock Creek.

America’s first Grade 1 race of 2010 takes place on Sunday at Santa Anita when older fillies and mares will be going seven furlongs in the Santa Monica Handicap. Evita Argentina will be tough in this spot. The 4-year-old daughter of Candy Ride won three stakes races in 2009 at this distance, the G2 A Gleam Handicap, the G2 San Vicente, and most recently, the G1 La Brea on Santa Anita’s opening day. Also entered is Proviso, making her 2010 debut for Bill Mott. She was previously trained by Bobby Frankel and ended her 2009 campaign with a fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic. If she handles the Pro-Ride surface, Tuscan Evening could be a factor; all of her previous 22 starts have been on turf.

Also on Sunday, the G2 Forward Gal, for 3-year-old fillies, will be run at Gulfstream Park. Eclipse Champion She Be Wild will take on a dozen rivals in the seven furlong race. Trained by Wayne Catalano, She Be Wild will test the dirt track for the first time in her career. Her 5-race juvenile campaign took place on synthetic surfaces, with one defeat which was in the G1 Alcibiades. Undefeated Richiegirlgonewild will see what she’s made of. The Wildcat Heir daughter is three-for-three, including the Old Hat on Jan. 9 where she made every pole a winning one over this same strip. Other entries include Sister Resistor, from Ken McPeek’s barn, and Ailalea, entered by Todd Pletcher.

By Ray Paulick
What does a former longtime editor of Blood-Horse magazine have to do with one of the leading sires of American Graded Stakes winners of 2009?

It’s a longshot for any horse that wins just one race to have the opportunity to succeed at stud, but Malibu Moon has overcome the odds. The credit for that success can be spread around, to farms in Maryland and Kentucky, and to an editor that Josh Pons will never forget.

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

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By Ray Paulick
How good is Rachel Alexandra? There are several ways to marvel at her extraordinary ability. To the naked eye, she is an impressive combination of grace and power that is seldom seem, her long, smooth strides simply too much for her overmatched competitors to keep up with.

To followers of speed figures, she is a monster. Her Beyer Speed Figure from Sunday’s Haskell Invitational was 116, a huge number. I would think her Ragozin and Thorograph numbers will also reflect superiority over her contemporaries.

What she has done in racking up seven consecutive victories in 2009 by Aug. 2 is equally amazing. In some ways, this daughter of Medaglia d’Oro is a throwback to yesteryear, when horses weren’t treated with kid gloves. In compiling this formidable record, Rachel Alexandra has won six American Graded Stakes—twice as many as any other horse in the country so far this year—and four of the graded races were Grade 1 events (Kentucky Oaks, Preakness, Mother Goose, and Haskell Invitational). Two of them, as any racing fan knows, were outside of her division against colts.

Let’s put those numbers in perspective. There will be something like 50,000 races run this year in the U.S., about 2,600 of them stakes races, or about 5% of all races. Of the 2,600 stakes, only about 500 are graded (1%), and of those 500, there are just 115 Grade 1. So, one-fifth of 1% of all U.S. races have Grade 1 status.

Taken a bit farther, for those 50,000 races there are about 410,000 horses in the starting gate. No more than 115 of those 410,000 starters will be able to claim a Grade 1 victory, or about three horses from every 10,000 starters (three-hundredths of 1%).

What are the odds of one of those horses winning four Grade 1 races in the first eight months of the year? Astronomical!

So, Rachel Alexandra is not quite a one in a million superstar Thoroughbred, but she’s pretty darned close.

THESE NUMBERS AND PERCENTAGES  merely serve to illustrate how difficult it is for a Thoroughbred to become a graded stakes winner. The chances of breeding, buying, selling or training one can be equally challenging.

Of course, there is strength in numbers to improve your chances of being associated with a graded stakes winner, whether you are a sire, owner, breeder, trainer, consignor or sales company. But big numbers do not guarantee success.

We’ll look this week at the leading sires of 2009 American Graded Stakes winners so far this year. Three stallions—A.P. Indy, Giant’s Causeway and Unbridled’s Song—each have sired five AGS winners. But Giant’s Causeway has by far had the most starters—265 at this writing—so his percentage of AGS winners to year starters is just 1.9%. A.P. Indy with 126 starters, has sired 4.0% AGS winners, and Unbridled’s Song with 162 starters, has sired 3.1% AGS winners. (Note: the number of starters is worldwide.)

A.P. Indy stood for $250,000 this year. A success rate of 4.0% AGS winners means 1 in 25 runners wins an AGS, so it has taken on average $6,250,000 in stud fees (25 X $250,000) to produce each graded stakes winner among his runners. (Not all foals get to the races, so the number to produce an AGS would be even higher considering all foals.)

Giant’s Causeway and Unbridled’s Song stood for $125,000 each, and their average stud fee price per graded stakes winner using that same formula is $6,579,000 for Giant’s Causeway and $4,032,000 for Unbridled’s Song.

It’s the next group of three sires, Mizzen Mast, Candy Ride and Tapit, with four AGS winners each, where the value is greater.  Mizzen Mast has had 126 starters and has a AGS winner percentage of 3.2%; Candy Ride has had 80 starters for a 5.0% AGS strike rate; Tapit has had 84 starters for 4.8%.

Candy Ride, who was recently moved from Hill ‘n’ Dale to Lane’s End, offered the greatest value when considering his $12,500 stud fee. His average stud fee cost per AGS winner was only $250,000. Of course, there is little question that Candy Ride’s fee will be going up in 2010, though no announcement has yet been made.

Of the other two sires with four AGS winners, Mizzen Mast with a $17,500 fee produced each 2009 AGS winner at an average stud fee cost of $547,000; Tapit, with a fee of $35,000 produced each 2009 AGS winner at an average stud fee cost of $729,000—still a bargain compared with the higher-priced stallions.