Posts Tagged ‘Breeders’ Cup World Championships’

By Ray Paulick
Satish Sanan has never been afraid to speak his mind, whether he’s at a Thoroughbred auction, the racetrack or a corporate boardroom. Still a relative newcomer to this industry (he and wife Anne bought their first yearlings at Keeneland in 1997 for his family’s Padua Stables), Sanan has been a proponent of greater transparency and disclosure in many facets of racing and breeding.

A native of India who was educated in England and is now a U.S. citizen and successful businessman, Sanan was first asked to join the Breeders’ Cup board in 2003. He was elected to the 13-member board of directors when the organization restructured its governance in January 2006. “I’ve seen the good, the bad, and the ugly when it comes to the Breeders’ Cup,” Sanan told the Paulick Report, “but I’ve seen a lot of progress lately.”

If there is progress in the future, Sanan might deserve a large share of the credit. He is head of a strategic planning committee that’s hired a world-class consulting firm to examine virtually every aspect of the Breeders’ Cup and present a strategic plan to the board of directors in July. The committee was his idea, after he criticized the organization for not having a five- or 10-year strategic plan, instead operating tactically on a year-to-year basis and making decisions on what Sanan called “knee jerk reactions” to events.

But while Sanan has been critical of some aspects of the Breeders’ Cup, he strenuously objected to the tone and content of an editorial written by owner-breeder Peter Blum that appeared in the Thoroughbred Times of Jan. 10, 2009, and was referenced here in the Paulick Report. Sanan wrote a rebuttal to Blum that was published in the Jan. 24 edition of the Thoroughbred Times, citing a series of changes and improvements to the Breeders’ Cup since the new board was elected three years ago. (Neither Thoroughbred Times commentary is available online.)

“I felt the (Blum) article was all negative and non-factual,” Sanan told the Paulick Report. “He is objecting to a number of things, but doesn’t back it up with anything, and I tried to go through it step by step and back it up with a lot of data.”

Sanan said there are some who will criticize “whatever the Breeders’ Cup board and its management do. The perception is that it’s still the ‘old guard,’” he added, “that (board chairman) Bill Farish runs it and his dad (William S. Farish of Lane’s End) tells him what to do. But the reality is a lot of people on that board are pretty damned vocal and will say what they want to say. From operations to communications to financial management to the whole structure, I tell you it is so much better than it was five years ago.”

The younger Farish and chief executive officer Greg Avioli worked closely with Sanan in the early stages of the strategic planning process, beginning in August and September. “We asked for volunteers (among the 48 individuals on the Breeders’ Cup board of members and trustees) and got a very positive response, with more than 15 committee members,” Sanan said.

During a personal trip to London, Sanan scheduled an appointment with Spectrum Value Partners, a global consulting firm that was referred to him by Malcolm Glazer, owner of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the National Football League and majority owner of the English Premier League football giant Manchester United. Spectrum Value Partners offers strategic advice to a number of telecom and media clients worldwide, and also has a roster of sports clients, including several teams in the English Premier League. They also have had some horse racing clients, according to Sanan, including At the Races television, the Melbourne Cup and Victoria Cup. Click here to learn more about some of the sports consulting done by Spectrum Value Partners.

“We needed a firm that can take a 500,000-mile view and help us put together a five-year plan,” Sanan said. “The Breeders’ Cup needs to put a plan in place, like NASCAR did 10 years ago, something that says, ‘Here is where we want to be in five years, or 10 years.’

“They did a terrific presentation to the board, and the process has started,” Sanan said.

The first step was development of a lengthy questionnaire distributed to the 48 Breeders’ Cup members and trustees. The nearly 70 questions cover considerable ground, including sections on governance, nominations, perceptions about the Breeders’ Cup, comparisons with other sporting events, international issues, external challenges, and expectations about the future. The consulting team from Spectrum Value Partners, led by partner William Field and assisted by Janice Hughes, Richard Mooney and Sam Evans, will then conduct one-on-one interviews with roughly 50 major industry stakeholders from around the world. It will also gather information from racetracks and horseplayers, Sanan said.

In the midst of this, a two-day retreat for the strategic planning committee will be held in South Florida in February.

“One of the things I’ve been critical of is that we rely on one-day of revenue (now two days) with the championship races and on stallion and foal nominations,” Sanan said. “Breeders’ Cup needs to find alternative forms of revenue and not be dependent on foal nominations from breeders, but to somehow do more for breeders. Should we consider multiple cities for the event, like the World Cup does in soccer? We are in the baking stage, but I believe something good is going to come out of this.

“Whether or not it will be implemented remains to be seen.”

Putting together strategic plans is something Sanan has done in all of his businesses. “If you can put together a five-year plan and execute it, it’s very helpful,” he said. “You may have to adapt the plan each year, tweak it a little because of external events, but we’ve always executed these plans in my businesses. For some reason, a lot of people don’t do it in this (the Thoroughbred) industry.

“There is a big difference between running a business and building a business,” he added. “It’s in building and growing and transforming that you learn a great deal. The Breeders’ Cup is a great entity with a good brand name. We should be able to generate a couple hundred million dollars worth of revenue. This can be transformed into a huge, international, highly successful organization. Whether we can get there or not, I don’t know. But as part of the process, I’m going to give it a go.”

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

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By Ray Paulick

“It’s hard to get half the people in this industry to agree on what day it is,” a Central Kentucky breeder said to me a couple of weeks ago, shortly after the Breeders’ Cup announced suspension of the stakes supplement program for 2009. “I can’t believe 83% of the people voting in your poll agreed that the Breeders’ Cup board made the wrong decision.”

The day after the results of the Daily Paulick Poll were reported (83% opposed the decision by the board of directors not to use cash reserves to fund the program, 10% supported it and 7% were unsure), the Breeders’ Cup reversed field, reinstating the stakes supplements – at least for 2009. Breeders’ Cup president Greg Avioli said he did not “anticipate the fervor of the response” to the original decision to suspend the program. Apparently, the poll results reflected the response Avioli and board members received in the way of telephone calls and emails from nominators to the Breeders’ Cup from around the country.

This wasn’t the first time judgments ran strong on an issue on which readers of the Paulick Report were asked to vote. The polls are not scientific, but the results are quite interesting and we are flattered by the daily response. This much we’ve learned: You’ve got opinions.

The most recent results, in fact, represent the strongest sentiment of any of the 40 polls we have conducted since just before the Breeders’ Cup World Championships in late October. (Click here to see archives of all the Daily Paulick Poll results.) We asked, “Does the National Thoroughbred Racing Association provide a strong central organization to move racing forward in the future?” The results have been stunning, with 94% saying “no” and only 6% answering “yes.”

In some ways, the question about the NTRA mirrored the results of earlier polls regarding the state of the industry and thoughts about some of the organizations that lead it. In mid-November, we asked, “In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the Thoroughbred industry in the United States at this time.” The question was parallel to the right track/wrong track question the Gallup organization periodically asks of American citizens about the state of the nation.

According to our poll, 91% answered “dissatisfied,” suggesting the industry is currently on the wrong track. Of the remainder, 4% said they were satisfied and 5% were unsure. One e-mailer suggested that the 4% who said they were satisfied must not have understood the question.

Along those same lines, in early December we asked, “Are you confident the individuals in charge of the most prominent racing and breeding organizations in the United States are adequately addressing the problems the industry is currently facing?” That resulted in an 85% no confidence vote, with 10% saying they are confident in our industry leaders and 5% unsure.

 

By Ray Paulick

There are many ways to look at this year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships from a business and sporting standpoint, and not all examinations are going to lead to the same destination.

The most important question is whether or not the 2008 Breeders’ Cup was a success or failure. Was the decision to hold the Cup at a racetrack with a synthetic surface a wise move? Has the expansion of the world championships from eight races in one day to 14 races in two days helped or diluted the event?

How is success or failure of the Breeders’ Cup measured? Is it attendance, pari-mutuel handle, revenue, TV ratings, racing results, international participation?

It’s difficult to measure some of these factors because the circumstances of the Breeders’ Cup have changed so much between 2008 and previous years, rendering it an apples to oranges comparison. Making those comparisons even more challenging are the current economic conditions that have hit all levels of society this year, from Wall Street bankers to blue-collar workers. Virtually every industry is feeling a severe impact.

Putting that aside, last year’s Breeders’ Cup at Monmouth Park was the first time the event was stretched over two days, and handle totaled just over $147 million ($31.5 on the Friday program and $115.7 on Saturday) despite poor weather and messy track conditions (a near monsoon came through New Jersey during Friday’s program and the track was very sloppy on Saturday). This year’s two-day handle increased by only 5.5%, to $155.5 million  ($47.9 million on Friday, $107.6 million on Saturday), despite perfect weather and the addition of three new Breeders’ Cup races. Comparisons are for the whole cards, including non-Breeders’ Cup races run at Monmouth Park last year and Santa Anita this year.

Steve Crist’s weekend blog at DRF.com (Friday, Saturday), which detailed the race-by-race betting figures for the last three years of the Breeders’ Cup, shows that handle dropped sharply on the races moved from the Saturday card in 2007 to Friday (Filly & Mare Turf, Juvenile Fillies, Ladies’ Classic) this year. That makes perfect sense, since there were fewer people betting Friday’s program this year than there were betting Saturday’s program last year. But there were five Breeders’ Cup races on Friday this year, when the all of the filly and mare races were packaged as "Filly Friday" or "Ladies Day," compared with three in 2007, leading to the increase in Friday-to-Friday comparisons.

Handle dropped virtually across the board on Saturday’s races this year, with the day’s total handle declining by 7%, from $115.7 million in 2007 to $107.6 million in 2008. It was the lowest handle on a Saturday Breeders’ Cup since 1999, when $100.3 million was bet on the races from Gulfstream Park.

Santa Anita’s on-track handle of $11.8 million was down almost 10% from the $12.7 million wagered on-track at Monmouth Park in 2007 and a steep decline of 33% from the 2006 Saturday Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs, when $18.3 million was bet on-track during the one-day event.

Saturday’s on-track business was the lowest for a Breeders’ Cup since 1997, when $11.2 million was wagered at Hollywood Park. The last time the Breeders’ Cup was held at Santa Anita, in 2003, one-day on-track handle totaled $16.3 million. This year’s two-day on-track handle was $18.7 million.

The economic climate has not been good for racing in 2008. Most major race meetings have experienced double-digit declines in business. For the Breeders’ Cup to increase handle from 2007 is an accomplishment, though not a major one when considering both the additional races and superior weather conditions.

It is difficult to say there has not been a dilution of the event based on the early evidence. Do the positive benefits outweigh any negatives? I think it’s too early to tell.

Attendance was up this year from 2007, but that should have been a no-brainer following the poor weather at Monmouth Park. Breeders’ Cup officials got greedy with ticket prices and, to their credit, have admitted as much. The increase in prices was outrageous, especially for the Friday program, and it is hoped they will be scaled back considerably next year.

TV ratings have not yet been reported, but it’s hard to imagine they will be up from 2007.

The racing was spectacular on both days – and safe. More than a few people commented at the conclusion of the Breeders’ Cup that no one died or suffered any serious injuries, a sad commentary on the bumpy road the sport has been traveling in recent years. The Pro-Ride synthetic track was fast and safe, though it appeared to compromise some horses who had only raced on conventional dirt tracks and help those horses with synthetic track or turf experience. 

Synthetic surfaces have increased the difficulty of handicapping, and running the traditional Breeders’ Cup dirt races on the Pro-Ride track may have led some big players to downsize their bets. The Classic, according to Crist’s figures, handled $24.3 million in bets this year, down from $30.1 million at Monmouth Park last year and $37.7 million at Churchill Downs in 2006.

The dominance of European horses was widely embraced by Breeders’ Cup officials, including president Greg Avioli, who sees international participation as the last, best hope for further growth in pari-mutuel handle. The success of Raven’s Pass and four other European-based winners on Saturday’s program will ensure enthusiastic participation from European horsemen when the races return to Santa Anita in 2009, but there is no guarantee that’s going to mean greater interest among horseplayers outside of North America. There is a conceivable backlash among American breeders who provide the financial foundation of the Breeders’ Cup program through foal and stallion nominations. Some of them view this as an American event, and they would be happier if the considerable purse money stayed in this country. On the other hand, those breeders who want to reach an international audience with their sale yearlings may cheer the success of European-based runners.

The Breeders’ Cup will conduct a post-mortem on the event to determine what worked and what didn’t.  Many have said the Oak Tree Racing Association and Santa Anita did a terrific job from a logistical standpoint, and there may not be a more telegenic racing facility in America in late October than the "Great Race Place." There were many people critical of the decision to hold the event at Santa Anita in consecutive years, but those critics surely are fewer in number following this year’s Breeders’ Cup

Provided that no major changes are made in the format, holding the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita next year will be more of an apples to apples comparison, allowing Cup officials to assess whether or not the expansion from one day to two was a sound decision.

Gaines responded: "It’s his opinion. Everybody watched Charlie Whittingham and Bobby Frankel. He says what he thinks. That’s OK. He just better never be in a race with me. I might have to beat him."

Todd Pletcher provided his observation: "I don’t think there’s anything that indicates that you have to be a man or a woman to train horses effectively. Either one is perfectly capable." Lukas capped off the piece by saying that it’s all about winning. If you win, you’ll get more and better horses.

1:00 p.m. … ABC is on the air, with their 2 1/2 hours of coverage. It switches to ESPN at 3:30 p.m., which continues to baffle some people. It’s really not that hard to switch channnels. It happens in golf and other sports quite frequently. Good intro on the Breeders’ Cup narrated by the incomparable Bill Nack, the former senior writer for Sports Illustrated who is serving as essayist on the Breeders’ Cup telecasts.

1:05 p.m. …  "This is our grand stage for horse racing," says Jerry Bailey. "A great performance here cements your reputation for an entire career. This is the kind of day that I live for, baby." Moss points out that the Europeans were shut out but says "they’ve got a lot of bullets." Moss also gives a "hip, hip, hooray" to the fact that this is the first steroids-free Breeders’ Cup.

1:06 p.m. … A run-through of the six reporters working the telecast was mostly forgettable except for Caton Bredar, who will be reporting via horseback on the Pro-Ride surface, which heats up from the sun. "I’ll have the hottest seat in the house," she proclaims. Caton, I’ll leave that up to chauvinist pig Rick Dutrow to decide.

1:10 p.m. … Come on! We’re only 10 minutes into the broadcast and they’re already recycling some of the features from yesterday’s ESPN2 show? They’re doing that dollar comparison between the Breeders’ Cup and other major sporting events. But they’re loading into the gate now for the Marathon.

1:15 p.m. … 49-1 longshot Booyah takes the early lead, and the field is strung out as if in a harness race. Midway down the backstretch, Zappa takes over, but it’s a short lived lead. Muhannak has clear sailing on the outside and moves to the front, while the heavy favorite Sixties Icon has to check while awaiting room before straightening away into the stretch. Trained by Ralph (pronounced Rayfe) Beckett and ridden by Patrick Smullen, Muhannak breaks through for the Europeans, holding off a fast-closing Church Service to win it. Big Booster is third, with Delightful Kiss fourth. Sixties Icon and Zappa both came up empty in the stretch. Muhannak,  a 4-year-old gelding by Chester House bred in Ireland by Mount Coote Stud,  races for Richard Pegum. Though this was his U.S. debut, Muhannak has plenty of synthetic track experience in England and is a perfect 3-for-3 since joining trainer Beckett’s barn.

Marathon prices: $26.80 on a $2 win bet, and the $1 exotics paid: $133.10 for the exacta, $987.10 for the trifecta, and $3,955 for the superfecta. Time for the 1 1/2 miles on the Pro-Ride track was 2:28.24. Chart.

1:25 p.m. … The Turf Sprint is the race where I absolutely love the filly, Only Answer, from Andre Fabre’s stable. She is not getting any early action and is 18-1 on the board. The one horse getting bet below its morning line is course specialist California Flag, down from 15-1 morning line to 8-1.

1:45 p.m. … Aaron Gryder’s jockey introductions are actually pretty clever. Loved the comment about Kendrick Carmouche, the son of the famous "fog jockey," Sylvester Carmouche, who hid in a fog bank at a Louisiana bull ring track and came rushing out of the fog with a huge lead when the field turned for home. He got caught.  "He won’t be able to play that same trick his dad did," Gryder said. "This is sunny California, and he can’t hide in the fog."

1:50 p.m. … I’ve decided to wheel and backwheel Only Answer in the exactas and box her with Fleeting Spirit, Diabolical and California Flag in the trifecta. I’m not usually a gimmick player, but I smell a big payoff for someone here.

1:53 p.m. … Mr. Nightlinger sets the face pace with betdown California Flag pushing him, but the speed doesn’t last in here. Richard Migliore gets the last run with the longest shot on the board, Desert Code at 36-1, who runs down Diabolical in the final yards to win it. Storm Treasure is third and Fleeting Spirit fourth. Desert Code won on this course during the winter meeting, taking the ungraded Joe Hernandez Stakes but most recently finished seventh in the Morvich Handicap in a race he needed. "I tried to anticipate being a little bit closer (to the pace)," Migliore tells Jerry Bailey after the race. Desert Code ’s near the back of the back entering the stretch, but Migliore saved ground crossing the Pro-Ride surface before finding a seam on the outside at about the eighth pole.  It’s a very popular win for horsemen and racing fans in New York, who have always appreciated Migliore’s class as much as his riding skills. Underrated conditioner Dave Hofmans trains the 4-year-old son of E Dubai for the Tarabilla Farms. "The horse was training super, and he loves this downhill course," Hofmans said. 

I was right about one thing: big payoffs. Desert Code paid $75 to win; the $1 exacta paid $393.10, the tri was $6,184.50 and the superfecta was $29,663.30. My selection, Only Answer was mired near the back of the pack after breaking well and was never a factor. Chart.

2:10 p.m. … Sometimes it’s hard to tell if it’s a bet down or a bad morning line. Pyro was 20-1 on the morning line and is now at 7-1. Probably a little of both. Well Armed is the heavy favorite in the Dirt Mile, getting bet down from his 3-1 morning line to 6-5.

2:15 p.m. … Kenny Mayne repeats an interesting comment from Aaron Gryder, the rider of Well Armed, whose comeback from a near-death experience was prominently played up in the telecast, with all the credit going to owner Bill Casner. "My horse has a better chance of winning today than Curlin has in the Classic," Gryder is said to have told the ESPN crew. At 6-5 odds, you have to wonder how many other people Gryder told. After two longshot winners, you might expect to see a return to predictability here. Well Armed is my pick, but I think Surf Cat is capable of pulling off an upset, and he’s a big overlay, at 13-1. Mast Track is another huge price, 18-1, up from 6-1 on the morning line, but that’s probably due to the cloud over his physical condition. Trainer and owner Bobby Frankel said he was very unlikely to run earlier in the week because of a quarter crack. He wouldn’t run him if he wasn’t sound, in my opinion, so that makes Mast Track an interesting possibility here, too. I can’t take 6-5 on Well Armed.

2:30 p.m. … ABC’s "historical milestones" feature is a good one, taking us back to 1984 and through the years of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships. The musical accompaniment was fun, including references to the artist formerly known as Prince. Did I just hear crusty ol’ Bruce Headley say he loves Prince’s "When Doves Cry"? 

Oh, for the love of God … more interviews with Michael Iavarone. Now he’s telling Kenny Mayne about the death threat he received before the Belmont from someone in Tallahassee, Fla.  Is that why he has that big bodyguard following him around? ESPN tried to contact the deputy that worked the case and they couldn’t get  ahold of him? Is that Kenny Mayne’s way of saying he doesn’t believe Iavarone’s story?

2:35 p.m. … More boxcar prices. Albertus Maximus, getting a dream ride from Garrett Gomez, collars pacesetter Two Step Salsa to win the Dirt Mile over Rebellion, with Two Step Salsa hanging on for third and My Pal Charlie fourth. Well Armed never looked comfortable and was not a factor. Gryder had some trouble with Well Armed on the first turn, but it wasn’t enough to take him out of contention. He wound up ninth. Mast Track was fifth and Surf Cat 12th. They covered the mile on the fast Pro-Ride track in 1:33.41.

The winner is a 4-year-old son of Albert the Great bred and owned by Brandon and Marianne Chase and trained by Vladimir Cerin. He’s been placed in some big races (third in the Goodwood, second in the 2007 Swaps Stakes), but this is his first graded stakes victory. Albertus Maximus had been trained by Gary Mandella until the owners moved him to Cerin’s barn prior to a Sept. 1 ungraded stakes victory at Del Mar. "I just felt the horse was going backwards and we all knew the horse had talent," Marianne Chase said in the winner’s circle. "We all believed in this horse, and finally the moment of truth came, we turned him over to Vladimir and he’s done just absolute miracles."

Mutuels: Albertus Maximus paid $14.60 to win, the exacta was $109.30; trifecta $1,636; and superfecta $19,804.30. Somebody’s making money! Chart.
 
2:55 p.m. … Another Joe Torre interview. He and Michael Iavarone are going head and head for the most over-exposed people on the two days of racing telecasts. (He also did a trophy presentation, something Iavarone hasn’t done yet.) But maybe Iavarone will be able to win the Mile trophy again this year with Kip Deville.

3:05 p.m. … Time for chalk? Goldikova is the solid betting favorite here and a favorite is due to win after four longshots. She looks splendid on the track. Lots of chuckles on the set when Randy Moss repeats the tiresome line from Rick Dutrow about defending champ Kip Deville. Dutrow’s biggest concern is wondering how much to bet. Nick Luck, the guy with the accent and the great racetrack name, says something very intelligent about the Mile, though I’m not sure what it was exactly. But he sounded so smooooth saying it. Geek alert. Best place for geeks at Santa Anita is directly behind Kenny Mayne and Hank Goldberg. Get on the cell phone and call someone who cares to say that you’re on TV. Hank’s going for the 4-11 exacta, Goldikova and Whatsthescript. Sorry, Hank, can’t see the 11 hole getting up for second on this course. I like Goldikova and Shakis from the rail for second.

3:15 p.m. … Jeannine Edwards with Rick Dutrow, who takes us on a romantic journey down memory lane,.. "I’ve been up and down. We’re pretty used to this sort of thing," he nonchalants. I can almost here Sinatra…."That’s life, that’s what people say, riding high in April, shot down in May." 

3:18 p.m. … As they load, Trevor Denman points out how light a filly Goldikova is.Well, all I can say is, "Rick, I hope you bet to place." Goldikova was everything promised, and more. It was a simply brilliant performance and a flawless ride by Olivier Peslier, putting the daughter of Anabaa in a good spot just behind the pacesetting Thorn Song, and then driving through a narrow opening in midstretch with incredible acceleration. Freddie Head was a great jockey and he is proving to be just as good a trainer — the first to both ride and train a Breeders’ Cup winner (he handled two-time Mile winner Miesque). Of course, he has the pedigree. Kip Deville ran his race, but was only second best. Whatsthescript made a good late run to get third, with Precious Kitten fourth. This was a "wow" performance, the kind that wlil linger in the mind for years to come. "I think she’s as good as her," Head said in comparing Goldikova to Miesque. "She’s definitely in the same league."

Mutuels: $5.60 was the win price on Goldikova, with $13.60 on the exacta, $47.60 on the trifecta and $302.20 on the superfecta. Chart.

3:29 p.m. … OK, everyone, grab the remote control and switch over to ESPN from ABC.

3:30 p.m. … Yesterday I indicated that Forever Together likely cinched an Eclipse Award as filly and mare turf champion. Now I’m not sure so. It was just one performance, but Goldikova is the best distaffer to race on North American turf this year, in my opinion, and deserves consideration as a North American champion. Her European races don’t count, but what a career she’s had, winning six of nine starts and never finishing worse than third.

3:35 p.m. … On to the Juvenile, where Munnings is being ignored by the bettors. He’s at 9-1 off a 7-2 morning line. The horse with some action is Square Eddie, the recent acquisition by Paul Reddam who won the Breeders’ Futurity in his only U.S. start. At 9-2 on the morning line, he’s currently the 5-2 choice. Jay Privman reports that trainer Todd Pletcher is scratching his head over what tactics to have jockey John Velazquez employ on Munnings. He may be the only speed in the race, but speed has not been holding on very well on the Pro-Ride track. I look for a slow pace in this one, but I can’t see Munnings being very far from the front early.

3:53 p.m. … This tidbit from a Privman interview with Paul Reddam. Square Eddie’s trainer, Doug O’Neill, is home with the chicken pox.

3:59 p.m. …  Square Eddie and Midshipman duel for the early lead in the Juvenile, the opening quarter in :23.55 and half in :47.08. Munnings took back, and Midshipman never looked back. Garrett Gomez gets another win and Bob Baffert  possibly has another Kentucky Derby contender and his sixth Breeders’ Cup winner. This is the colt that was bred and owned by Bob and Janice McNair’s Stonerside Stable until they sold their operation — farm and horses — to Sheikh Mohammed. Midshipman was part of the package. "I’ve always wanted to train for Sheikh Mo," Baffert said at the time. It remains to be seen whether or not the horse stays with Baffert, however, as the Sheikh has been known to bring his American 2-year-olds to Dubai. Square Eddie was second best, just ahead of Street Hero in third and Terrain in fourth. Munnings got a good trip from there but flattened out after rallying wide into the stretch and finished 10th. Coolmore’s Bushranger, in from Europe, was 11th. Ooops. The camera trained in on Baffert and wife Jill celebrating as Midshipman crossed the wire in front, but Randy Moss said "that’s actually not Jill."  Actually, Randy, it was. "It’s good to win one for Darley," Baffert said, "but to the McNairs, great job."

Mutuels: Midshipman paid $9.20 to win; exacta $19.70, trifecta $72.20, and trifecta $736.70. This race shows that you can win on the lead if the fractions are realistic. Chart.

4:10 p.m. … John Ferguson accepts the trophy for the ruler of Dubai and defers to the missing sheikh when asked about Midshipman’s future. "Obviously that’s up to Sheikh Mohammed," he said, as Baffert listens intently over Ferguson’s shoulder. Might we see this horse in Dubai? Ferguson is asked. "Possibly." I couldn’t make out what Baffert said under his breath, after that response.

4:20 p.m. … The saddest part of the awful ESPN feature using "song girls" from the University of Southern California to cheer during a race was the fact the Santa Anita grandstand was completely empty when they were filmed. I have to remind myself that you can’t fill all six hours of a telecast with horse and races.

4:40 p.m. … You can’t keep Frankie Dettori down forever. He rode the hair off of Donativum to beat fellow European Westphalia in the Juvenile Turf,. Coronet of a Band finished third, with City Style fourth. Donativum, racing for Princess Haya of Jordan (married to Sheikh Mohammed), is a gelding by Cadeaux Genereux trained by John Gosden, who spent some time training in California in the ’80s and won the inaugural Breeders’ Cup Mile with the mare Royal Heroine at Hollywood Park in 1984.  Tough loss for Westphalia and the Coolmore team. "It’s great to come back to Santa Anita and win a Breeders’ Cup race," Gosden said. "It’s progressed well," Gosden said of the Breeders’ Cup since its inception in 1984, "and I think the development of the two days and the work that the Breeders’ Cup committees have done in creating what they have here at Santa Anita, for the two days of racing, the fillies yesterday were out of this world. It is just superb racing at the highest quality. To me it is the Northern Hemisphere championships. There is no other word for it."

Mutuels: $13.60 to win, with the exacta paying $23.60, the trifecta $152.90 and the superfecta $3,024.10. Chart.

Dettori’s flying dismount would have been panned by Olympic gymnastic judges. He didn’t exactly stick the landing.

4:55 p.m. … Good use of the telestrator by Bailey, who points out how jockeys Johnny Murtagh and Dettori  both went for the same narrow opening in midstretch. Murtagh got the first jump, but Dettori had the best horse.

5:15 p.m. … The Sprint field is ready to go. Midnight Lute is the big question mark here. So is Fatal Bullet, who was just overpowering in his last start at Turfway Park and is a synthetic track freak. But he’s not been facing this kind of competition.

5:20 p.m. …. So much for those questions. Both Midnight Lute and Fatal Bullet ran big, but the Baffert-trained Midnight Lute was just too good, overpowering Fatal Bullet in the final sixteenth to win going away, just as he did a year ago at Monmouth Park. This may be the best training job in Bob Baffert’s career. Midnight Lute has had just one race since last November, and that was a terrible effort in the Pat O’Brien Handicap at Del Mar in August. The horse had a hock injury and a quarter crack that Baffert had to fight and show patience, something that has never been his strong suit. Fatal Bullet ran big on the lead and was second best, with Street Boss and In Summation rallying for third and fourth, respectively. The six furlongs was run in a blazing 1:07.08.

This was Garrett Gomez’s fourth Breeders’ Cup win in two days and the second today for Baffert."I’ve never had a horse like this. He’s just incredible," Baffert said. "He’s one of the best horses I’ve ever trained in my life. I’ve been bragging on this horse forever, but he showed today he is a great horse." The son of Real Quiet (who race for Midnight Lute’s co-owner Mike Pegram) has now now six of 13 starts over four years. At one time he was a Derby hopeful after breaking his maiden so impressively as a 2-year-old at Del Mar, but throat problems compromised him. Subsequent throat surgeries have helped.

Mutuels: Midnight Lute paid $7.40 to win; exacta was $23.80; trifecta $62.50; and superfecta $242.30. Chart.

5:40 p.m. … Nick Luck, the guy with the accent who specializes in European horses, uses a hunk of the Santa Anita turf to show why the track drains so well and is firm. It also might have something to do with the fact that it doesn’t rain in California for six months at a time, Nick. Anyways, Bailey, who mows his own lawn, said the big difference between turf courses in the East and in California is the length of the grass. They keep it much shorter out here, Bailey says, but that’s so golfer Gary Player can go out and work on his game while he’s visiting Santa Anita,.

5:42 p.m. … .ESPN feature on Mike Smith is a good one. Nobody doesn’t like Mikey, and it’s great to see him getting the good horses again. He works hard at his profession, and is a gentleman as well. Bailey says Smith is not only the fittest jockey in America, but one of the fittest athletes in the country. "He’s amazingly fit," Bailey says.

5:55 p.m. … At long last, John McCririck is on the air. He makes Hank Goldberg look small. McCririck thinks Soldier of Fortune is terribly underpriced in the Turf and Eagle Mountain is good value. Dare I say I agree with him? John is a cariacature, but he genuinely knows and loves the game. I’ve had the good pleasure of spending quality time with him over the years at many races and find him to be as knowledgable as they come on international racing.

6:08 p.m. … Michael Stoute had the truest "stayer" in the Turf, and he came flying down the stretch to snatch victory away from Eagle Mountain, who looked a certain winner as the field hit the top of the stretch. A 3-year-old coming off  a three-length victory in the 1 3/4-mile St. Leger Stakes at Doncaster, Conduit was ridden perfectly by Ryan Moore. it was Conduit’s fifth win in nine starts. Eagle Mountain sat just off the early pace in perfect position under Kevin Shea, overtook favorite Soldier of Fortune in midstretch, but was no match for the winner. Dancing Forever closed to get third from Soldier of Fortune.  "He’s raced on firm turf," Stoute told Jeannine Edwards when asked about what gave him confidence that Conduit could handle the firm going. "He’s a very clean and good-actioned horse. We had no qualms about the ground."

Mutuels: $13.60 to win; exacta paid $53.60, the trifecta $1,406.70 and the superfecta $5,622. Chart.

6:25 p.m. … For the first time all weekend, I’m nervous, with some butterflies swirling around in my stomach. I usually only get this way for the Kentucky Derby or when a horse is going for the Triple Crown at Belmont Park. That’s what sets the Classic apart from all the other races in the Breeders’ Cup, at least in my mind and in my gut. I can’t imagine how the owners of these horses must feel.

6:30 p.m. … Of the numerous features shown on this weekend or on any racing telecast for that matter, none has ever put a lump in my throat like the story done on Classic contender Colonel John and Karri Casner, the daughter of WinStar Farm co-owners Bill and Susan Casner who was killed in the terrorist bombings in Bali. It was tough to watch, but beautifully done and certainly put things in perspective.

6:40 p.m. … "It’s not really about the money, it’s about the competion," Jess Jackson tells Jeannine Edwards. He hasn’t been listening to Joe Tessitore, who must get $100 bucks every time he reminds viewers that this is richest event in all of sports. Randy Moss disses Steve Asmussen for not allowing ESPN to bring a camera inside the barn for 30 seconds. "Don’t you know who we are, pal? We’re the worldwide leader in sports!"

6:50 p.m. … ESPN reports there are 55,000 people at Santa Anita, including California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is shown giving Bo Derek a kiss on the cheek near the winner’s circle. The horses for the Classic are loading.

6:53 p.m. … Raven’s Pass wins the 25th Breeders’ Cup Classic by 1 3/4 lengths over Henrythenavigator, making this the first one-two European sweep ever in the race. Tiago gets up for third, and a gallant Curlin is fourth, after making a huge move on the turn and going to the lead at the top of the stretch. What a stretch run! Finally, one of my selections to beat the favorite pays off, and it was, as I suggested in my preview, a big day for the Euros. European-based horses won five of the nine races.

Complete order of finish: Raven’s Pass, Henrythenavigator, Tiago, Curlin, Go Between,  Colonel John, Smooth Air, Champs Elysees, Duke of Marmalade, Fairbanks, Student Council, and Casino Drive. Time was a very snappy 1:59.27.

It was the second win on the day for Gosden and Dettori, two of the best in the world at what they do. Casino Drive set the early fractions of :23.77 and :47.60, with prompting from Fairbanks, but neither was around when the real running began at the top of the stretch. "I was always in a spot where he needed to be I thought," said Robbie Albarado of Curlin. "I was content where I was. I had to go a little bit wider than I wanted to, but that’s Curlin. That’s his patented run." Albarado didn’t want to blame the synthetic surface for the defeat.  Steve Asmussen spoke off camera to Jeannine Edwards, saying, "It was a turf race, it wasn’t a dirt race. Horses can train well over the synthetic surface. It doesn’t mean they will run well over it. When he came by the first time and I saw that he was off the bridle, I got worried." Edwards said the Santa Anita crowd gave Curlin a standing ovation when he came back to be unsaddled. Bravo!

7:05 p.m. … Gosden, who spent 11 years training in the United States, tells Edwards: "He’s improved a lot through the year. He’s trained beautifully and he’s mentally relaxed more than ever. I felt the distance wouldn’t be a problem. His sire (Elusive Quality) was a very good miler, but Charlie Whittingham trained Lord At War, the broodmare sire. He won the Santa Anita Handicap at a mile and a quarter."

7:10 p.m. … Princess Haya, Sheikh Mohammed’s wife, had a better day than her husband, as the owner of Raven’s Pass, beating him 2-to-1. Raven’s Pass was bred by Robert and Janice McNair’s Stonerside Stable, which sold the colt earlier this year when Bob McNair opted to get out of racing and concentrate on his NFL football team, the Houston Texans.

Mutuels: Raven’s Pass paid $29 to win, with the exactga paying $150.50, the trifecta $2,395, the superfecta $10,236. Chart.

7:15 p.m. … Dettori’s enthusiasm is such a great asset for the game. He hasn’t always been the most pleasant fellow I’ve run across, but we all have our good and bad days. His love of the game comes through so well at moments like these, however, such as when he gives Bo Derek a big kiss and almost puts his lips on the camera lens He is a showman, one of the best in our business.

7:20 p.m. … In the trophy presentation in the winner’s circle, John Ferguson ignores Gov. Schwarzenegger’s demand to have Raven’s Pass return next year ("I’ll be back!")  and defend his title. Sorry, Arnie, but Sheikh Mohammed’s got a little more juice than you do, and he doesn’t have to listen to you.

7:25 p.m. … It takes a jockey to finally thank the Breeders’ Cup corporate sponsors. After the parade of owners receiving Breeders’ Cup trophies all ignored the various race sponsors, Garrett Gomez thanked "all the sponsors" when he received his Bill Shoemaker Award as the outstanding jockey for the third time in the last four years. It’s pretty standard operating procedure in other sports to have the participants thank the sponsors, but racing people are different.

7:30 p.m. … "The great thing about synthetic surfaces….they keep horses safer, and we saw that today," Randy Moss says at the end of the telecast after a brief discussion about how running the main track races on the Pro-Ride is going to be debated. "I wouldn’t hang my head if I was Curlin," Bailey said, who added that Zenyatta gets the edge from him over Curlin for Horse of the Year. Moss concurs, giving the nod to Zenyatta for her perfect record.

7:40 p.m. … Final thoughts.Santa Anita made for a spectacular setting on television, and the racing was equally good. In the last two days, we have seen some tremendous performances, especially by three fillies who stood out: Stardom Bound and Zenyatta on Friday and Goldikova on Saturday. The male horses that made the biggest impression in my mind today were Midnight Lute and Raven’s Pass. But the warrior who made this day so big going in was one who finished off the board: Curlin. He deserved the standing ovation from the Santa Anita patrons for the year he provided to us all in 2008, from Dubai to Kentucky to New York to California. In 16 lifetime starts, this was the first time that Curlin failed to finish in the top three. He’s the best we’ve seen in some time. 

The synthetic track will get credit for being a great equalizer for the Europeans, but let’s not forget that this was the first Breeders’ Cup where the American horses were not aided by anabolic steroids. That’s an even bigger equalizer, and perhaps the most significant change in all of the many changes that Breeders’ Cup officials have made in the last 12 months. It was long overdue, but a welcome change nonetheless.

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

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By Ray Paulick

Top to bottom, this may not be the most talented group of Breeders’ Cup horses that’s ever been assembled, but it’s the biggest handicapping challenge I can ever recall, especially considering new races like the Marathon, Turf Sprint, Dirt Mile and Juvenile Turf.

As mentioned yesterday, the Breeders’ Cup Web site has loads of good information, including race schedules and post times, wagering menu, free Equibase past performances, a useful wagering calculator, a list of simulcast locations and advice for beginners. You can bet the Breeders’ Cup races through any of the approved account wagering companies.

My handicapping philosophy is to beat the favorite whenever possible, since the average percentage of winning favorites is around 33%. You might discern from the following selections that I think the Europeans are going to have a big day on Saturday. The factors leading me to believe that will be true are 1) the synthetic surface that some Europeans train on; 2) the tighter medication rules that specifically ban anabolic steroids for the first time; 3) the quality of European horses being sent to this year’s event.

Here’s my advance prognostication on the day’s nine championship races. Good luck and safe racing to all.

Special note: please be sure to check back in to the Paulick Report, beginning around 3 p.m.  Eastern, for my live blog of Filly Friday. I’ll also be live blogging Saturday’s nine races, beginning at 1 p.m. Eastern.

Marathon
This looks like a two-horse race between European runner Sixties Icon and Zappa (whose namesake, the late rocker Frank Zappa, was the founder of the Mothers of Invention and was a real-life sixties icon).  That works for me, but it’s an all chalk exacta. I give the edge to Sixties Icon, in part because of jockey Frankie Dettori’s experience edge at mile and a half races. Zappa is sharp and may try to steal the race under Garrett Gomez. Muhannak has plenty of synthetic track experience in Europe and likes the distance. Cedar Mountain  will be closing late.

Selections: 1-Sixties Icon 2-Zappa 3-Muhannak 4- Cedar Mountain

Turf Sprint
One of the great things about the Breeders’ Cup is finding a horse you absolutely love and then discovering that it’s a longshot. That’s the case with Only Answer, a French-based filly in the care of the legendary horseman Andre Fabre, who is in top echelon of Breeders’ Cup trainers. I think she has an excellent chance to beat the boys in this spot, and Santa Anita’s ace morning line maker Jeff Tufts has her pegged at 20-1 on the morning line. Jockey Olivier Peslier, in my opinion, is as good a big-race rider as there is in the world, and he knows this filly well. The downhill turf course is a tricky one for horse and rider, with the run across the main track causing difficulty for some. It’s one of the best “horses for the course” plays in racing, which makes local runners California Flag and Get Funky formidable challengers in here. Fleeting Spirit has a lot of class, as does Diabolical, either of whom are good enough on their best days to win. I’m going for the price play.

Selections: 1-Only Answer 2-Fleeting Spirit 3-Get Funky 4-Diabolical

Dirt Mile
The status of Mast Track is in doubt as I write this, and I would be very surprised if trainer and owner Robert Frankel runs him on Saturday. If he is scratched, that’s going to make things a lot easier for Well Armed, a Tiznow gelding who seems to have found a perfect spot here, though I’d prefer  him to have drawn more of an inside post position. The Eoin Harty runner can go to the lead or rate, depending on the circumstances, and the mile distance suits him perfectly. Surf Cat should be more effective at this distance, too, after running dull races in his last two starts. Bruce Headley has tightened the veteran up with some quick works. No one seems to have more confidence in his horse than Wayne Catalano, and there’s a lot to like about Lewis Michael, who grabs the advantageous rail post. Pyro’s a tough one to assess in here. His only synthetic track try at Keeneland was a disaster, but all synthetic tracks aren’t the same.

Selections: 1-Well Armed 2-Surf Cat 3-Lewis Michael 4-Pyro

Turf Mile
Irish-bred filly Goldikova has made few mistakes in her eight-race career for French trainer Freddie Head, who has enough confidence to run her against colts here at her best distance. She’s drawn perfectly in the four post and has big-race rider Olivier Peslier in the saddle. It’s not the strongest Mile field we’ve seen. Shakis is a game old-timer who always finishes with a rush. If Alan Garcia can avoid traffic problems from the rail, he won’t be far away at the finish. Kip Deville ran a puzzler last time out in Canada on a yielding track for Rick Dutrow. I’d throw that race out as he goes for a defense of his crown. U S Ranger doesn’t win very many but usually gets up for a share of the money and has been facing tough company all year. Whatsthescript got an impossible post position on the outside.

Selections: 1-Goldikova 2-Shakis 3-Kip Deville 4-U S Ranger

Juvenile
Post positions really come into play here, with the two horses I like the most, Bushranger and Midshipman, drawn way outside, a distinct disadvantage in the relatively short run to the first turn. Munnings, who has chased juvenile division leader Vineyard Haven (not entered in the Breeders’ Cup by trainer Robert Frankel) in his last two starts, draws the much friendlier rail post for his first try around two turns. That’s enough to give him the edge in this spot for trainer Todd Pletcher, especially in a race without much early speed. The son of Speightstown should get the best trip under John Velazquez. Bushranger  may be the best horse and he’ll have to be overcome his 11 post. Street Hero has been steady since breaking his maiden in June and remains in top form for Myung Kwon Cho.

Selections: 1-Munnings 2-Bushranger 3-Midshipman 4-Street Hero

Juvenile Turf
Westphalia looks to me like the obvious choice here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is bet down to near favoritism from his 5-1 morning line. He’s in top form and has had a bit of a rest since his last win at Doncaster in mid-September. Coronet of a Baron obviously has is precocious and talented, and the shift from synthetic to turf by trainer Eoin Harty is an interesting move. Darley already has Midshipman going in the Juvenile and this gives them a good chance to sweep the two races. Of course, arch-rival Coolmore has Bushranger in the Juvenile and Westphalia in here, giving them a strong hand as well. The Darley-Coolmore rivalry will be interesting to follow throughout the two days. Bittel Road is unbeaten on turf and is the morning line choice, but he hasn’t seen this kind of competition yet. Donativum is in the more than capable hands of trainer John Gosden, who knows how to have a horse at peak form when it matters most.

Selections: 1-Westphalia 2-Coronet of a Baron 3-Bittel Road 4-Donativum

Sprint
Smallest number of runners in this race since 1986, obviously a byproduct of two new races: the Filly and Mare Sprint and Dirt Mile. I doubt that defending champ Midnight Lute scared anyone away based on his only start of the year, a dismal 10^th in the Pat O’Brien at Del Mar. He’s worked sensationally for Bob Baffert since then, but it’s hard to see him up sharp enough to beat the likes of Street Boss or In Summation. I give the clear nod here to the California horses, led by the Bruce Headley-trained Street Boss. My intuition tells me Bruce Headley didn’t have the son of Street Cry cranked to the max for the Ancient Title when second to Cost of Freedom, and recent works suggest he’s ready to roll here. In Summation is a thorough professional who can be counted on to run his race. Midnight Lute will be running late. Fatal Bullet has the best chance of upsetting the local horses’ applecart.

Selections: 1-Street Boss 2- In Summation 3-Midnight Lute 4-Fatal Bullet

Turf
While Europe’s bigshots were locking horns in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Oct. 5, Mike de Kock was bringing the top-class Eagle Mountain back to the races from a fractured pelvis and year layoff at Newmarket. The Rock of Gibraltor colt won the comeback, a Group 3 race at Newmarket, and some big money subsequently came in on the horse with a British bookmaker  to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf. The former Coolmore/Aidan O’Brien runner looked sharp in a morning spin at Santa Anita is primed for a big effort. Soldier of Fortune comes off a hard-fought defeat for O’Brien in the Arc. That was just his third race of the year and he might have another good one in him. Winchester turned in a monstrous performance at Arlington Park to win the Secretariat for Dermot Weld, far surpassing his European form. This is a big step up, but he showed a fondness for American style racing in that effort. Conduit completes my all- European superfecta. American turf horses appear weak again this year, but let’s not forget how English Channel romped in the 2007 Turf over supposedly superior Europeans.

Selections: 1-Eagle Mountain 2-Soldier of Fortune 3-Winchester 4-Conduit

Classic
By the time the finale rolls around, we should have a pretty good idea how European turf horses have adapted to Santa Anita’s synthetic Pro-Ride surface. I don’t have the benefit of knowing that right now, so I can only speculate how Duke of Marmalade, Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass will take to the track. But I guess we can say the same thing about Curlin, who has trained well on the track but never raced on a synthetic strip. Curlin may be the best horse we’ve seen in the last 10 years, in terms of his accomplishments if not his brilliance. But based on his last two victories over relatively weak competition, I think he’s beatable here. But who will beat him? Go Between, a synthetic track specialist who’s logged thousands of miles this year going from coast to coast? Casino Drive, the unbeaten but lightly raced, Japanese-trained sibling to two previous Belmont Stakes winners? Colonel John, the best 3-year-old in training following the retirement of Big Brown? The Aidan O’Brien duo of Duke of Marmalade and Henrythenavigator, who have combined for nine Group 1 victories on European turf this year? All have a realistic chance, but I’m taking the John Gosden-trained Raven’s Pass for the upset under Frankie Dettori. The Elusive Quality 3-year-old colt hasn’t gone beyond a mile, but Gosden knows from his previous experience in California that most top-class Europeans can stretch their ability out in the U.S. Raven’s Pass  has had a month off since defeating Henrythenavigator in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and is in absolute top form. Curlin will run hard as always, but he’s had a long year for trainer Steve Asmussen. Go Between is a steady performer for Mott, who’s handled him intelligently all year. Colonel John may be the best 3-year-old, but the jury is still out on how good this year’s sophomore crop really is.

Selections: 1-Raven’s Pass 2-Curlin 3-Go Between 4-Colonel John

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

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