Posts Tagged ‘breeders’ cup juvenile’
Friday, February 26th, 2010
The Paulick Report is pleased to once again offer the pedigree insights of Edwin Anthony in the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Ed has lifelong experience in the Thoroughbred industry, has practical experience planning matings for his family’s stable and formerly as a pedigree adviser to Three Chimneys Farm. His perspective is straightforward and refreshingly opinionated, and I advise anyone interested in Thoroughbred pedigrees to pick up a copy of his book, “The American Thoroughbred (Volume One)”—available for purchase here.
In this first of a series of articles, he looks at the pedigree of Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth winner Eskendereya. – Ray Paulick
ESKENDEREYA (Giant’s Causeway—Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew)
By Edwin Anthony
I wrote a series of eight pedigree profiles for horses on the “Triple Crown trail” starting about this time last year, and recent Fountain of Youth (G2) winner Eskendereya will serve as the first horse in our series this season. It’s interesting to look back at the horses we profiled last year (Friesan Fire, Quality Road, Pioneerof the Nile, Dunkirk, I Want Revenge, Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy, Rachel Alexandra) to see how they fared.
Quality Road is obviously a top horse (he missed the Triple Crown with quarter cracks), while Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile were each able to place in one classic race, and I wrote a token piece about Rachel Alexandra because she looked like a very special filly, even though she had not won anything more than a G2 race at that stage. Only a fortune teller could have predicted Rachel Alexandra’s Horse of the Year campaign after changing hands or the rapid ascension of Birdstone (sire of longshot classic winners Mine That Bird and Summer Bird) as a major classic influence.
Even though I have studied Thoroughbred pedigrees for going on 25 years, no one can get around the folly of bad luck, injuries in training, or the fact that many horses look dominant going nine furlongs (a mile-and-an-eighth) but simply aren’t up to the demanding task of running classic distances at a competitive speed.
That’s the mystery of stamina and genetics that we’re constantly trying to figure out. Of course, even a horse that is capable of competing at classic distances still needs to put out the effort, and sometimes horses have off-days just like people.
If nothing else, we strive to learn about the strengths and limitations of the stallions and ancestors under discussion and hope to come out smarter on the other side. At the very least, we want to learn what strategies are working in pedigrees, even if some of them aren’t up to the classic standard. Who are the soundest horses, where is the stamina coming from, and what ancestors are best to inbreed to? These are the answers we’re looking for.
Pedigree analysts (like myself) try to identify patterns in graded stakes results as a way of predicting the future. Given that the Storm Cat line has been a poor source of classic winners, then you probably wouldn’t want to lean heavily on Storm Cat’s sons (or stallions out of Storm Cat mares) in your stallion recommendations for breeders that want to breed for the classics. The Storm Cat line hasn’t had a winner of a Triple Crown race since Tabasco Cat in 1994, although Bluegrass Cat was second in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont, and Travers in 2006. You should note that Bluegrass Cat is out of a mare by classic influence A.P. Indy and his dam is heavily inbred to the foundation mare La Troienne, including being from the Numbered Account (champion 2YO filly by Buckpasser) branch of that important family.
So, while the Storm Cat line is dominant in 2-year-old racing and in races contested at distances of 9 furlongs or shorter, it does not appear capable of producing classic types, unless there is a LOT of help on the dam side of the equation. Of course, when you start to speak in these kinds of absolutes, a special horse can come along and provide us with the exception to the rule.
Storm Cat’s son Giant’s Causeway was a tough campaigner in Europe out of a good racemare by Rahy, with a second dam by English Derby winner and classic influence Roberto. He was undeniably consistent and high class, winning a series of Group 1 races at more than a mile. In his final start, he gave classic distance specialist Tiznow a real run for his money in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, that being his only start on dirt. So, Giant’s Causeway was sound, very fast, and capable of competing with top horses at the American classic distance of 10 furlongs (a mile-and-a-quarter). This makes him an exception among sons of Storm Cat, as most of his sons that have found any measure of success at stud were much better at a mile or less and have passed on this penchant for speed among their progeny.
Giant’s Causeway has already sired Grade 1 winners in America over 10 furlongs like Heatseeker (Santa Anita Handicap), Frost Giant (Suburban), and Red Giant (NWR, Clement L. Hirsch Memorial Turf Championship), so you can see that if there is a son of Storm Cat capable of siring an American classic winner, then Giant’s Causeway is probably the one.
The runaway win by Eskendereya (by Giant’s Causeway) in the Fountain of Youth (G2) was more than visually impressive. You could see that the horse really relished the opportunity to go two turns, and he is now 3 for 3 on the dirt, his only losses coming in his first start (a maiden event on turf at Saratoga) and a poor effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), contested over the synthetic surface at Santa Anita. He was reported to have a troubled trip in that race as well.
I have often thought that a true classic type horse is able to simply get into a steady gallop and carve out “12’s,” which is to say that he can consistently complete each furlong of a race in 12 seconds. It becomes increasingly difficult to do with each furlong, as the muscles begin to tire, and Secretariat’s world record time of 2:24 in the 1973 Belmont (over 12 furlongs) is the best example of a horse being able to accomplish this feat over such a distance. It’s not about an explosive move or “turn of foot” with classic horses; it’s steady horsepower over a distance. Classic horses “stay” (as the Europeans like to say), while horses more suited to shorter distances simply run out of gas, unable to maintain a steady stream of “12’s” on the toteboard teletimer.
This is exactly what Eskendereya did to the field in the Fountain of Youth (G2)—he galloped them into submission. After taking over after a half-mile in a soft 47.92, he completed six furlongs in 1:12.41, a mile in 1:36.54, with a final time for nine furlongs of 1:48.87, echoing the many 12-second furlongs before the last one. So, like several other sons of Giant’s Causeway, Eskendereya looks capable of running a distance of ground as far as 10 furlongs at a competitive rate of speed. Let’s look at the bottom side of his pedigree to check for more stamina.
Eskendereya’s damsire, Seattle Slew, won the Triple Crown and has been a very successful classic influence, with descendants like A.P. Indy (Belmont, Breeders’ Cup Classic), Bernardini (Preakness, Travers), Cigar (Breeders’ Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup), Lemon Drop Kid (Belmont, Travers), Mineshaft (Jockey Club Gold Cup, Suburban), and Slew o’ Gold (Jockey Club Gold Cup twice) serving as notable examples.
Alydar (second in all 3 Triple Crown races to Affirmed) is the sire of Eskendereya’s second dam, and beyond the fact that he sired two Kentucky Derby winners (Alysheba and Strike the Gold) and a Belmont winner (Easy Goer), Horse of the Year Point Given (Preakness, Belmont, Travers) was produced by a mare by champion Turkoman, he being a son of Alydar.
We know that inbreeding to the family of Almahmoud (second dam of both Halo and Northern Dancer) has been quite successful, and Giant’s Causeway is a very good example of this, as Storm Cat is a grandson of Northern Dancer and Rahy (his damsire) is out of a mare by Halo. The pedigree of Eskendereya shows why a six-generation computer program is a good investment, as his third dam carries intensive inbreeding to the Almahmoud family as well. His third dam is by Northern Dancer himself (giving Eskendereya “balanced” inbreeding to Northern Dancer—through a son and a daughter), and while his fourth dam was sired by the stout stamina influence Ribot (winner of the 12-furlong “Arc” twice) his fifth dam is actually the mare Cosmah, she being the dam of Halo and a daughter of Almahmoud. Thus, Eskendereya is not only inbred to Northern Dancer through a son and a daughter, he is inbred to Halo’s dam, Cosmah, 6 x 5 and carries four total crosses of Almahmoud.
As the ancestors Northern Dancer, Halo, and their granddam Almahmoud get further back in pedigrees, this reinforcement strategy of crossing horses inbred to Almahmoud should continue to find success and revive their influence in classic pedigrees. My parents bred and raced Preakness winner Pine Bluff (inbred 4 x 4 to Almahmoud), and I have noticed him working well with reinforcement of Almahmoud’s genes, crossing successfully with stallions like More Than Ready (by Southern Halo—closely inbred to Almahmoud), Menifee (by Harlan—closely inbred to Almahmoud), and Jules (from the Northern Dancer family and carrying Halo in his pedigree). So, it seems to be a strategy that is paying dividends with stallions and mares already carrying inbreeding to Almahmoud.
Given the fact that Giant’s Causeway has already proven capable of siring runners that excel at classic distances, and the fact that Eskendereya carries a number of other classic influences in his pedigree (Seattle Slew, Alydar, Ribot, and intensive inbreeding to the influential Almahmoud family), I’d say that his classic prospects look very bright indeed. His clear preference for dirt racing and ability to string together one 12 second furlong after another only boosts his stock, in my opinion. If Eskenereya can arrive in Louisville with a solid Florida Derby (G1) effort under his belt, he should be a very strong contender.
Edwin Anthony was the staff pedigree consultant at Three Chimneys Farm for six years and has penned dozens of articles on pedigree research. He also published The American Thoroughbred (Volume I) in 2008, which can be ordered via the banner ad link on this web page or on his web site at www.thoroughbredadvisor.com.
Tags: A. P. Indy, affirmed, Aldebaran Light, alydar, Alysheba, belmont, Bernardini, Bluegrass Cat, breeders' cup classic, breeders' cup juvenile, Chocolate Candy, cigar, Clement L. Hirsch, dubai world cup, dunkirk, Easy Goer, Edwin Anthony, Edwin Anthony Pedigree Report, English Derby, Eskendereya, fasig-tipton, Fountain of Youth, Friesan Fire, Frost Giant, giant's causeway, Heatseeker, I Want Revenge, jockey club gold cup, kentucky derby, Lemon Drop Kid, mine that bird, Mineshaft, Northern Dancer, Papa Clem, Paulick Report, Pioneerof The Nile, Point Given, preakness, Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra, Rahy, Ray Paulick, red giant, santa anita handicap, seattle slew, Slew o' Gold, storm cat, Strike the Gold, Suburban, The American Thoroughbred, three chimneys farm, tiznow, travers, Turkoman
Posted in Edwin Anthony Pedigree Report | 9 Comments »
Thursday, December 24th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
Buyers at the 2008 Keeneland September yearling sale who stopped by the Taylor Made Sales Agency barn to inspect Hip 1738 would have been looking at a bay colt by leading sire Smart Strike out of a young mare bred and raced by William S. Farish in partnership with Temple Webber Jr.
They would have been looking at a colt whose year-older half brother by Mr. Greeley, broke his maiden impressively at first asking at Saratoga a month earlier and who was entered in the Grade 2 Futurity Stakes at Saratoga on Sept. 13, one day before the yearling colt was to enter the sales ring.
But many of the potential buyers might also have been looking at a veterinarian’s report that said the colt had “mild sesamoiditis” in his left front ankle … “moderate mid-sagittal ridge erosion” in his right front ankle … “moderate sesamoiditis” in his left hind ankle … and a “post-operative lateral trochlear ridge divot” in both his left and right stifle.
Unfortunately, the details of that vet report may be what most buyers focused on, for despite the fact its conclusion was a “favorable prognosis” for racing soundness the colt was bought back by his breeders for $35,000, which wouldn’t even cover his sire’s 2006 stud fee of $50,000.
Who was the colt these buyers were looking at?
It was Lookin at Lucky, who went on to be a $475,000 graduate of the 2009 Keeneland April sale of 2-year-olds in training and is the probable champion 2-year-old Eclipse Award-winning male on the strength of four victories in American Graded Stakes races, including the Grade 1 trio of the Del Mar Futurity, Norfolk Stakes and CashCall Futurity. His only defeat in six starts came when beaten a nose in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by Vale of York.
Lookin at Lucky is just the latest example of a horse offered at public auction whose sale price was greatly diminished because of perceived physical problems that knowledgeable veterinary professionals believe would not impair its ability to train and race. He will be, as Mark Taylor of Taylor Made Sales Agency said recently, the 2010 poster child to help educate buyers about how physical or radiograph imperfections do not have to affect a horse’s racing ability or soundness.
Mark’s older brother, Duncan Taylor, who probably couldn’t dunk a basketball on an eight-foot hoop, often jokes that if NBA scouts drafted players on the basis of radiographs he might have gotten picked ahead of Michael Jordan because his X-rays are perfect.
Veterinarian Jerry Bailey and Lance Robinson, partners in Gulf Coast Farm, bred Lookin at Lucky after buying his dam, Private Feeling, for $130,000 from the Lane’s End consignment at the 2004 Keeneland November breeding stock sale. They sold Kensei for $300,000 to Jess Jackson’s Stonestreet Stables at the 2008 Barretts May 2-year-olds in training sale (Kensei went on to win the 2009 Grade 2 Jim Dandy, and Bailey and Robinson sold Private Feeling for $2 million at the 2009 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky November mixed sale).
Robinson and Bailey were high on Kensei’s younger half brother when he was entered in the 2008 Keeneland September sale. But Lookin at Lucky underwent surgery in April 2008 to remove OCD fragments from both stifles, and the aforementioned report prepared by the consignor’s veterinarian indicated other minor issues that the vet did not believe would prevent the colt from racing soundness. But, as has been the case with a long list of successful racehorses who did not sell well because of perceived issues, the report discouraged buyers who feel a horse is stigmatized by the letters OCD (which stands for osteochondritis dissecans),
So Bailey and Robinson put the colt in training and pointed him for Keeneland’s 2-year-old sale in the spring of 2009, offering him in the name of the Jerry Bailey Sales Agency. He caught the eye of trainer Bob Baffert after a one-furlong breeze in 10 seconds and brought the top price of $475,000 on the sale’s second day. Baffert, who said Lookin at Lucky X-rayed fine before the 2-year-old sale, told the Paulick Report he was unaware of the issues that accompanied the colt into the sale ring the previous September. Baffert bought the colt in the name of Mike Pegram, who now races Lookin at Lucky in partnership with Karl Watson and Paul Weitman.
“There’s a lot of times when you’re looking for athletes that it’s better not to have too much information,” the Hall of Fame trainer said. “There are so many horses that don’t ‘vet’ that turn out to be runners. I’ve trained horses that had OCD lesions and it never bothered them.”
Mark Taylor, who serves as president of the Consignors and Commercial Breeders Association, said one of the organization’s primary goals is to educate buyers about veterinary issues that come up at Thoroughbred auctions. To that end, the CBA has published several informative and useful booklets, including one that specifically deals with OCD. (Click here for a copy of that booklet, written by Frank Mitchell, and here to learn more about the CBA.)
Taylor said another one of the CBA’s projects is to gather racing results data for horses in various categories assigned by veterinarians based on radiographs and their prognosis for racing soundness made at the time they were offered at public auction. “Just at Taylor Made, we’ve got 90% of the X-ray reports of all the Grade 1 winners we’ve offered, starting with horses born in 1980 to the present,” he said. “It’s amazing some of the X-ray train wrecks that have gone on to be really good horses.”
Lookin at Lucky wasn’t one of those train wrecks. But the minor issues he had were discouraging enough to potential buyers that they passed on an opportunity to buy a horse who turned into a three-time Grade 1 winner and the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby. That’s the kind of horse that everyone is looking for.
Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report
Savvy businesses recognize value. Advertise in the Paulick Report.
Sign up for our Email Flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary from Ray Paulick
Tags: American Graded Stakes Standings, Barretts May, breeders' cup juvenile, CashCall Futurity, consignor, del mar futurity, duncan taylor, Gulf Coast Farm, jerry bailey, jess jackson, jim dandy, Keeneland, keeneland november sale, Kensei, Lance Robinson, Lane's End, lookin at lucky, Mark Taylor, Norfolk Stakes, Private Feeling, smart strike, stonestreet stables, Taylor Made, Temple Webber Jr., Vale of York, william farish
Posted in American Graded Stakes Standings, Keeneland | 15 Comments »
Friday, December 18th, 2009
This weekend’s stakes schedule is as light as last but certainly more consequential to next year’s Derby trail. The American racing world will be focused on the synthetic track of Hollywood Park as the CashCall Futurity and the Hollywood Starlet are run for late-season California 2-year-old supremacy.
The CashCall Futurity features a slew of Baffert colts but none have the legendary trainer’s eye quite like Lookin At Lucky who was barely edged out by long shot Vale of York in Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. Mentioned as an early Derby favorite, Lookin At Lucky will have high expectations thrust upon him for the 8 ½ furlong trip this Saturday under Garrett Gomez. Expected to compete with Lucky is Noble’s Promise, a Ken McPeek trained colt. Having won the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland this October, he showed great promise during a third place finish at the same Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. This should prove to be an exciting rematch.
The Hollywood Starlet features Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies favorite Blind Luck who was edged out of second place by a head by Beautician and soundly beaten by She Be Wild. This Jerry Hollendorfer filly looks to rebound with a strong performance against the same Beautician, another McPeek horse, along with other notables Bickersons and Rose Catherine.
Tags: Beautician, Bickersons, blind luck, Bob Baffert, breeders' cup juvenile, breeders' cup juvenile fillies, Breeders' Futurity, CashCall Futurity, garrett gomez, Hollywood Park, Hollywood Starlet, jerry hollendorfer, KBC Horse Supplies, Keeneland, ken mcpeek, lookin at lucky, Noble's Promise, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick, Rose Catherine, She Be Wild, Weekend Stakes: Where to Watch
Posted in Hollywood Park, Weekend Stakes: Where to Watch | 2 Comments »
Thursday, April 9th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
Ernie Paragallo may or may not have financial problems in his private life. But he very likely has a legal problem, stemming from the reported discovery on his upstate New York farm of horses that were not being fed or cared for properly or humanely. Police in New York on Wednesday took control of Center Brook Farm and its 170-plus equine occupants.
In one published report, Paragallo claims to be spending $5,000 per week on feed for the horses on his farm. That sounds like a lot of money to many of us, but Paragallo has played at the top end of the racing and breeding world. One of his racing stable’s former stars, Unbridled’s Song, winner of the $1-million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 1995, has been an extremely successful stallion, standing as the property of a syndicate at Taylor Made Farm in Kentucky.
Unbridled’s Song is the sire of two of this year’s leading Kentucky Derby contenders, Old Fashioned and Dunkirk.
According to sources, Paragallo owns as many as 20 of the 40 shares in Unbridled’s Song, whose 2009 live foal stud fee is $125,000 (down from $150,000 in 2008, and $200,000 in 2007). Each of those shares leads to roughly two live foals per year, meaning that if Paragallo owns 20 shares he will get $5 million or more in revenue in stud fees from Unbridled’s Song when this breeding season’s foals are born in 2010 (20 shares=40 foals, times $125,000 stud fee). Over a three-year period (factoring in the higher fees from 2007-08), Paragallo’s revenue from Unbridled’s Song could approach $20 million.
Yes, he certainly can afford to feed and provide proper veterinary care for his horses.
Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report
Sign up for our Email flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary from Ray Paulick
Visit the Paulick Report for all the latest news throughout the racing world.
Tags: breeders' cup juvenile, center brook farm, dunkirk, ernie paragallo, kentucky derby, Old Fashioned, paraneck, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick, taylor made farm, unbridled's song
Posted in Horse Welfare, ernie paragallo | 21 Comments »
Saturday, October 25th, 2008
Ray Paulick will be live blogging Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships, which begin at 1:10 p.m. Eastern with the first ever running of the 1 1/2-mile Marathon.
Please note that there is a late scratch in that race: Add Heat was withdrawn from the Marathon Saturday morning because of a suspensory injury to his right front leg. There is also a scratch in the seventh race, the Sprint. Ancient Title winner Cost of Freedom was scratched from the race following a veterinary inspection Saturday morning.
Ray’s live blogging will begin shortly before the first race.
12:50 p.m. … Looking back on yesterday, I’m a bit concerned about my Saturday Breeders’ Cup selections and predictions that it’s going to be a big day for the Europeans. None of yesterday’s five winners came from Europe, although Coolmore/Aidan O’Brien runner Heart Shaped had some people convinced (Jerry Bailey) that she won the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Could the warm weather be a bigger factor than some of us anticipated?
12:55 p.m. … People are still buzzing about the ignorant comment made by trainer Rick Dutrow in a feature on female trainers that was shown during the ESPN2 telecast on Friday. The feature focused on Helen Pitts and Carla Gaines and on the challenges they have faced and the sacrifices they’ve had to make. It began with a quote by D. Wayne Lukas about the 1970s and how he wouldn’t hire women because "I always felt someone would fall in love with them and that would cause problems in the shedrow." Gaines, a social worker in Alabama before she began training horses, said she sacrificed having "children, marriage, things of that nature. I always wanted a career. I never thought I was the kind of person who could stay home, raise children and clean house. It’s just not me."
Then they switched to Dutrow, he with the foot in mouth disease. "I liked watching Bobby Frankel, Charlie Whittingham," Dutrow said. "I’ve tried to be around those guys to learn what they do. I wasn’t gonna walk in the barn and try and pick up things on what a woman trainer does. It’s just got no interest to me at all."
Gaines responded: "It’s his opinion. Everybody watched Charlie Whittingham and Bobby Frankel. He says what he thinks. That’s OK. He just better never be in a race with me. I might have to beat him."
Todd Pletcher provided his observation: "I don’t think there’s anything that indicates that you have to be a man or a woman to train horses effectively. Either one is perfectly capable." Lukas capped off the piece by saying that it’s all about winning. If you win, you’ll get more and better horses.
1:00 p.m. … ABC is on the air, with their 2 1/2 hours of coverage. It switches to ESPN at 3:30 p.m., which continues to baffle some people. It’s really not that hard to switch channnels. It happens in golf and other sports quite frequently. Good intro on the Breeders’ Cup narrated by the incomparable Bill Nack, the former senior writer for Sports Illustrated who is serving as essayist on the Breeders’ Cup telecasts.
1:05 p.m. … "This is our grand stage for horse racing," says Jerry Bailey. "A great performance here cements your reputation for an entire career. This is the kind of day that I live for, baby." Moss points out that the Europeans were shut out but says "they’ve got a lot of bullets." Moss also gives a "hip, hip, hooray" to the fact that this is the first steroids-free Breeders’ Cup.
1:06 p.m. … A run-through of the six reporters working the telecast was mostly forgettable except for Caton Bredar, who will be reporting via horseback on the Pro-Ride surface, which heats up from the sun. "I’ll have the hottest seat in the house," she proclaims. Caton, I’ll leave that up to chauvinist pig Rick Dutrow to decide.
1:10 p.m. … Come on! We’re only 10 minutes into the broadcast and they’re already recycling some of the features from yesterday’s ESPN2 show? They’re doing that dollar comparison between the Breeders’ Cup and other major sporting events. But they’re loading into the gate now for the Marathon.
1:15 p.m. … 49-1 longshot Booyah takes the early lead, and the field is strung out as if in a harness race. Midway down the backstretch, Zappa takes over, but it’s a short lived lead. Muhannak has clear sailing on the outside and moves to the front, while the heavy favorite Sixties Icon has to check while awaiting room before straightening away into the stretch. Trained by Ralph (pronounced Rayfe) Beckett and ridden by Patrick Smullen, Muhannak breaks through for the Europeans, holding off a fast-closing Church Service to win it. Big Booster is third, with Delightful Kiss fourth. Sixties Icon and Zappa both came up empty in the stretch. Muhannak, a 4-year-old gelding by Chester House bred in Ireland by Mount Coote Stud, races for Richard Pegum. Though this was his U.S. debut, Muhannak has plenty of synthetic track experience in England and is a perfect 3-for-3 since joining trainer Beckett’s barn.
Marathon prices: $26.80 on a $2 win bet, and the $1 exotics paid: $133.10 for the exacta, $987.10 for the trifecta, and $3,955 for the superfecta. Time for the 1 1/2 miles on the Pro-Ride track was 2:28.24. Chart.
1:25 p.m. … The Turf Sprint is the race where I absolutely love the filly, Only Answer, from Andre Fabre’s stable. She is not getting any early action and is 18-1 on the board. The one horse getting bet below its morning line is course specialist California Flag, down from 15-1 morning line to 8-1.
1:45 p.m. … Aaron Gryder’s jockey introductions are actually pretty clever. Loved the comment about Kendrick Carmouche, the son of the famous "fog jockey," Sylvester Carmouche, who hid in a fog bank at a Louisiana bull ring track and came rushing out of the fog with a huge lead when the field turned for home. He got caught. "He won’t be able to play that same trick his dad did," Gryder said. "This is sunny California, and he can’t hide in the fog."
1:50 p.m. … I’ve decided to wheel and backwheel Only Answer in the exactas and box her with Fleeting Spirit, Diabolical and California Flag in the trifecta. I’m not usually a gimmick player, but I smell a big payoff for someone here.
1:53 p.m. … Mr. Nightlinger sets the face pace with betdown California Flag pushing him, but the speed doesn’t last in here. Richard Migliore gets the last run with the longest shot on the board, Desert Code at 36-1, who runs down Diabolical in the final yards to win it. Storm Treasure is third and Fleeting Spirit fourth. Desert Code won on this course during the winter meeting, taking the ungraded Joe Hernandez Stakes but most recently finished seventh in the Morvich Handicap in a race he needed. "I tried to anticipate being a little bit closer (to the pace)," Migliore tells Jerry Bailey after the race. Desert Code ’s near the back of the back entering the stretch, but Migliore saved ground crossing the Pro-Ride surface before finding a seam on the outside at about the eighth pole. It’s a very popular win for horsemen and racing fans in New York, who have always appreciated Migliore’s class as much as his riding skills. Underrated conditioner Dave Hofmans trains the 4-year-old son of E Dubai for the Tarabilla Farms. "The horse was training super, and he loves this downhill course," Hofmans said.
I was right about one thing: big payoffs. Desert Code paid $75 to win; the $1 exacta paid $393.10, the tri was $6,184.50 and the superfecta was $29,663.30. My selection, Only Answer was mired near the back of the pack after breaking well and was never a factor. Chart.
2:10 p.m. … Sometimes it’s hard to tell if it’s a bet down or a bad morning line. Pyro was 20-1 on the morning line and is now at 7-1. Probably a little of both. Well Armed is the heavy favorite in the Dirt Mile, getting bet down from his 3-1 morning line to 6-5.
2:15 p.m. … Kenny Mayne repeats an interesting comment from Aaron Gryder, the rider of Well Armed, whose comeback from a near-death experience was prominently played up in the telecast, with all the credit going to owner Bill Casner. "My horse has a better chance of winning today than Curlin has in the Classic," Gryder is said to have told the ESPN crew. At 6-5 odds, you have to wonder how many other people Gryder told. After two longshot winners, you might expect to see a return to predictability here. Well Armed is my pick, but I think Surf Cat is capable of pulling off an upset, and he’s a big overlay, at 13-1. Mast Track is another huge price, 18-1, up from 6-1 on the morning line, but that’s probably due to the cloud over his physical condition. Trainer and owner Bobby Frankel said he was very unlikely to run earlier in the week because of a quarter crack. He wouldn’t run him if he wasn’t sound, in my opinion, so that makes Mast Track an interesting possibility here, too. I can’t take 6-5 on Well Armed.
2:30 p.m. … ABC’s "historical milestones" feature is a good one, taking us back to 1984 and through the years of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships. The musical accompaniment was fun, including references to the artist formerly known as Prince. Did I just hear crusty ol’ Bruce Headley say he loves Prince’s "When Doves Cry"?
Oh, for the love of God … more interviews with Michael Iavarone. Now he’s telling Kenny Mayne about the death threat he received before the Belmont from someone in Tallahassee, Fla. Is that why he has that big bodyguard following him around? ESPN tried to contact the deputy that worked the case and they couldn’t get ahold of him? Is that Kenny Mayne’s way of saying he doesn’t believe Iavarone’s story?
2:35 p.m. … More boxcar prices. Albertus Maximus, getting a dream ride from Garrett Gomez, collars pacesetter Two Step Salsa to win the Dirt Mile over Rebellion, with Two Step Salsa hanging on for third and My Pal Charlie fourth. Well Armed never looked comfortable and was not a factor. Gryder had some trouble with Well Armed on the first turn, but it wasn’t enough to take him out of contention. He wound up ninth. Mast Track was fifth and Surf Cat 12th. They covered the mile on the fast Pro-Ride track in 1:33.41.
The winner is a 4-year-old son of Albert the Great bred and owned by Brandon and Marianne Chase and trained by Vladimir Cerin. He’s been placed in some big races (third in the Goodwood, second in the 2007 Swaps Stakes), but this is his first graded stakes victory. Albertus Maximus had been trained by Gary Mandella until the owners moved him to Cerin’s barn prior to a Sept. 1 ungraded stakes victory at Del Mar. "I just felt the horse was going backwards and we all knew the horse had talent," Marianne Chase said in the winner’s circle. "We all believed in this horse, and finally the moment of truth came, we turned him over to Vladimir and he’s done just absolute miracles."
Mutuels: Albertus Maximus paid $14.60 to win, the exacta was $109.30; trifecta $1,636; and superfecta $19,804.30. Somebody’s making money! Chart.
2:55 p.m. … Another Joe Torre interview. He and Michael Iavarone are going head and head for the most over-exposed people on the two days of racing telecasts. (He also did a trophy presentation, something Iavarone hasn’t done yet.) But maybe Iavarone will be able to win the Mile trophy again this year with Kip Deville.
3:05 p.m. … Time for chalk? Goldikova is the solid betting favorite here and a favorite is due to win after four longshots. She looks splendid on the track. Lots of chuckles on the set when Randy Moss repeats the tiresome line from Rick Dutrow about defending champ Kip Deville. Dutrow’s biggest concern is wondering how much to bet. Nick Luck, the guy with the accent and the great racetrack name, says something very intelligent about the Mile, though I’m not sure what it was exactly. But he sounded so smooooth saying it. Geek alert. Best place for geeks at Santa Anita is directly behind Kenny Mayne and Hank Goldberg. Get on the cell phone and call someone who cares to say that you’re on TV. Hank’s going for the 4-11 exacta, Goldikova and Whatsthescript. Sorry, Hank, can’t see the 11 hole getting up for second on this course. I like Goldikova and Shakis from the rail for second.
3:15 p.m. … Jeannine Edwards with Rick Dutrow, who takes us on a romantic journey down memory lane,.. "I’ve been up and down. We’re pretty used to this sort of thing," he nonchalants. I can almost here Sinatra…."That’s life, that’s what people say, riding high in April, shot down in May."
3:18 p.m. … As they load, Trevor Denman points out how light a filly Goldikova is.Well, all I can say is, "Rick, I hope you bet to place." Goldikova was everything promised, and more. It was a simply brilliant performance and a flawless ride by Olivier Peslier, putting the daughter of Anabaa in a good spot just behind the pacesetting Thorn Song, and then driving through a narrow opening in midstretch with incredible acceleration. Freddie Head was a great jockey and he is proving to be just as good a trainer — the first to both ride and train a Breeders’ Cup winner (he handled two-time Mile winner Miesque). Of course, he has the pedigree. Kip Deville ran his race, but was only second best. Whatsthescript made a good late run to get third, with Precious Kitten fourth. This was a "wow" performance, the kind that wlil linger in the mind for years to come. "I think she’s as good as her," Head said in comparing Goldikova to Miesque. "She’s definitely in the same league."
Mutuels: $5.60 was the win price on Goldikova, with $13.60 on the exacta, $47.60 on the trifecta and $302.20 on the superfecta. Chart.
3:29 p.m. … OK, everyone, grab the remote control and switch over to ESPN from ABC.
3:30 p.m. … Yesterday I indicated that Forever Together likely cinched an Eclipse Award as filly and mare turf champion. Now I’m not sure so. It was just one performance, but Goldikova is the best distaffer to race on North American turf this year, in my opinion, and deserves consideration as a North American champion. Her European races don’t count, but what a career she’s had, winning six of nine starts and never finishing worse than third.
3:35 p.m. … On to the Juvenile, where Munnings is being ignored by the bettors. He’s at 9-1 off a 7-2 morning line. The horse with some action is Square Eddie, the recent acquisition by Paul Reddam who won the Breeders’ Futurity in his only U.S. start. At 9-2 on the morning line, he’s currently the 5-2 choice. Jay Privman reports that trainer Todd Pletcher is scratching his head over what tactics to have jockey John Velazquez employ on Munnings. He may be the only speed in the race, but speed has not been holding on very well on the Pro-Ride track. I look for a slow pace in this one, but I can’t see Munnings being very far from the front early.
3:53 p.m. … This tidbit from a Privman interview with Paul Reddam. Square Eddie’s trainer, Doug O’Neill, is home with the chicken pox.
3:59 p.m. … Square Eddie and Midshipman duel for the early lead in the Juvenile, the opening quarter in :23.55 and half in :47.08. Munnings took back, and Midshipman never looked back. Garrett Gomez gets another win and Bob Baffert possibly has another Kentucky Derby contender and his sixth Breeders’ Cup winner. This is the colt that was bred and owned by Bob and Janice McNair’s Stonerside Stable until they sold their operation — farm and horses — to Sheikh Mohammed. Midshipman was part of the package. "I’ve always wanted to train for Sheikh Mo," Baffert said at the time. It remains to be seen whether or not the horse stays with Baffert, however, as the Sheikh has been known to bring his American 2-year-olds to Dubai. Square Eddie was second best, just ahead of Street Hero in third and Terrain in fourth. Munnings got a good trip from there but flattened out after rallying wide into the stretch and finished 10th. Coolmore’s Bushranger, in from Europe, was 11th. Ooops. The camera trained in on Baffert and wife Jill celebrating as Midshipman crossed the wire in front, but Randy Moss said "that’s actually not Jill." Actually, Randy, it was. "It’s good to win one for Darley," Baffert said, "but to the McNairs, great job."
Mutuels: Midshipman paid $9.20 to win; exacta $19.70, trifecta $72.20, and trifecta $736.70. This race shows that you can win on the lead if the fractions are realistic. Chart.
4:10 p.m. … John Ferguson accepts the trophy for the ruler of Dubai and defers to the missing sheikh when asked about Midshipman’s future. "Obviously that’s up to Sheikh Mohammed," he said, as Baffert listens intently over Ferguson’s shoulder. Might we see this horse in Dubai? Ferguson is asked. "Possibly." I couldn’t make out what Baffert said under his breath, after that response.
4:20 p.m. … The saddest part of the awful ESPN feature using "song girls" from the University of Southern California to cheer during a race was the fact the Santa Anita grandstand was completely empty when they were filmed. I have to remind myself that you can’t fill all six hours of a telecast with horse and races.
4:40 p.m. … You can’t keep Frankie Dettori down forever. He rode the hair off of Donativum to beat fellow European Westphalia in the Juvenile Turf,. Coronet of a Band finished third, with City Style fourth. Donativum, racing for Princess Haya of Jordan (married to Sheikh Mohammed), is a gelding by Cadeaux Genereux trained by John Gosden, who spent some time training in California in the ’80s and won the inaugural Breeders’ Cup Mile with the mare Royal Heroine at Hollywood Park in 1984. Tough loss for Westphalia and the Coolmore team. "It’s great to come back to Santa Anita and win a Breeders’ Cup race," Gosden said. "It’s progressed well," Gosden said of the Breeders’ Cup since its inception in 1984, "and I think the development of the two days and the work that the Breeders’ Cup committees have done in creating what they have here at Santa Anita, for the two days of racing, the fillies yesterday were out of this world. It is just superb racing at the highest quality. To me it is the Northern Hemisphere championships. There is no other word for it."
Mutuels: $13.60 to win, with the exacta paying $23.60, the trifecta $152.90 and the superfecta $3,024.10. Chart.
Dettori’s flying dismount would have been panned by Olympic gymnastic judges. He didn’t exactly stick the landing.
4:55 p.m. … Good use of the telestrator by Bailey, who points out how jockeys Johnny Murtagh and Dettori both went for the same narrow opening in midstretch. Murtagh got the first jump, but Dettori had the best horse.
5:15 p.m. … The Sprint field is ready to go. Midnight Lute is the big question mark here. So is Fatal Bullet, who was just overpowering in his last start at Turfway Park and is a synthetic track freak. But he’s not been facing this kind of competition.
5:20 p.m. …. So much for those questions. Both Midnight Lute and Fatal Bullet ran big, but the Baffert-trained Midnight Lute was just too good, overpowering Fatal Bullet in the final sixteenth to win going away, just as he did a year ago at Monmouth Park. This may be the best training job in Bob Baffert’s career. Midnight Lute has had just one race since last November, and that was a terrible effort in the Pat O’Brien Handicap at Del Mar in August. The horse had a hock injury and a quarter crack that Baffert had to fight and show patience, something that has never been his strong suit. Fatal Bullet ran big on the lead and was second best, with Street Boss and In Summation rallying for third and fourth, respectively. The six furlongs was run in a blazing 1:07.08.
This was Garrett Gomez’s fourth Breeders’ Cup win in two days and the second today for Baffert."I’ve never had a horse like this. He’s just incredible," Baffert said. "He’s one of the best horses I’ve ever trained in my life. I’ve been bragging on this horse forever, but he showed today he is a great horse." The son of Real Quiet (who race for Midnight Lute’s co-owner Mike Pegram) has now now six of 13 starts over four years. At one time he was a Derby hopeful after breaking his maiden so impressively as a 2-year-old at Del Mar, but throat problems compromised him. Subsequent throat surgeries have helped.
Mutuels: Midnight Lute paid $7.40 to win; exacta was $23.80; trifecta $62.50; and superfecta $242.30. Chart.
5:40 p.m. … Nick Luck, the guy with the accent who specializes in European horses, uses a hunk of the Santa Anita turf to show why the track drains so well and is firm. It also might have something to do with the fact that it doesn’t rain in California for six months at a time, Nick. Anyways, Bailey, who mows his own lawn, said the big difference between turf courses in the East and in California is the length of the grass. They keep it much shorter out here, Bailey says, but that’s so golfer Gary Player can go out and work on his game while he’s visiting Santa Anita,.
5:42 p.m. … .ESPN feature on Mike Smith is a good one. Nobody doesn’t like Mikey, and it’s great to see him getting the good horses again. He works hard at his profession, and is a gentleman as well. Bailey says Smith is not only the fittest jockey in America, but one of the fittest athletes in the country. "He’s amazingly fit," Bailey says.
5:55 p.m. … At long last, John McCririck is on the air. He makes Hank Goldberg look small. McCririck thinks Soldier of Fortune is terribly underpriced in the Turf and Eagle Mountain is good value. Dare I say I agree with him? John is a cariacature, but he genuinely knows and loves the game. I’ve had the good pleasure of spending quality time with him over the years at many races and find him to be as knowledgable as they come on international racing.
6:08 p.m. … Michael Stoute had the truest "stayer" in the Turf, and he came flying down the stretch to snatch victory away from Eagle Mountain, who looked a certain winner as the field hit the top of the stretch. A 3-year-old coming off a three-length victory in the 1 3/4-mile St. Leger Stakes at Doncaster, Conduit was ridden perfectly by Ryan Moore. it was Conduit’s fifth win in nine starts. Eagle Mountain sat just off the early pace in perfect position under Kevin Shea, overtook favorite Soldier of Fortune in midstretch, but was no match for the winner. Dancing Forever closed to get third from Soldier of Fortune. "He’s raced on firm turf," Stoute told Jeannine Edwards when asked about what gave him confidence that Conduit could handle the firm going. "He’s a very clean and good-actioned horse. We had no qualms about the ground."
Mutuels: $13.60 to win; exacta paid $53.60, the trifecta $1,406.70 and the superfecta $5,622. Chart.
6:25 p.m. … For the first time all weekend, I’m nervous, with some butterflies swirling around in my stomach. I usually only get this way for the Kentucky Derby or when a horse is going for the Triple Crown at Belmont Park. That’s what sets the Classic apart from all the other races in the Breeders’ Cup, at least in my mind and in my gut. I can’t imagine how the owners of these horses must feel.
6:30 p.m. … Of the numerous features shown on this weekend or on any racing telecast for that matter, none has ever put a lump in my throat like the story done on Classic contender Colonel John and Karri Casner, the daughter of WinStar Farm co-owners Bill and Susan Casner who was killed in the terrorist bombings in Bali. It was tough to watch, but beautifully done and certainly put things in perspective.
6:40 p.m. … "It’s not really about the money, it’s about the competion," Jess Jackson tells Jeannine Edwards. He hasn’t been listening to Joe Tessitore, who must get $100 bucks every time he reminds viewers that this is richest event in all of sports. Randy Moss disses Steve Asmussen for not allowing ESPN to bring a camera inside the barn for 30 seconds. "Don’t you know who we are, pal? We’re the worldwide leader in sports!"
6:50 p.m. … ESPN reports there are 55,000 people at Santa Anita, including California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is shown giving Bo Derek a kiss on the cheek near the winner’s circle. The horses for the Classic are loading.
6:53 p.m. … Raven’s Pass wins the 25th Breeders’ Cup Classic by 1 3/4 lengths over Henrythenavigator, making this the first one-two European sweep ever in the race. Tiago gets up for third, and a gallant Curlin is fourth, after making a huge move on the turn and going to the lead at the top of the stretch. What a stretch run! Finally, one of my selections to beat the favorite pays off, and it was, as I suggested in my preview, a big day for the Euros. European-based horses won five of the nine races.
Complete order of finish: Raven’s Pass, Henrythenavigator, Tiago, Curlin, Go Between, Colonel John, Smooth Air, Champs Elysees, Duke of Marmalade, Fairbanks, Student Council, and Casino Drive. Time was a very snappy 1:59.27.
It was the second win on the day for Gosden and Dettori, two of the best in the world at what they do. Casino Drive set the early fractions of :23.77 and :47.60, with prompting from Fairbanks, but neither was around when the real running began at the top of the stretch. "I was always in a spot where he needed to be I thought," said Robbie Albarado of Curlin. "I was content where I was. I had to go a little bit wider than I wanted to, but that’s Curlin. That’s his patented run." Albarado didn’t want to blame the synthetic surface for the defeat. Steve Asmussen spoke off camera to Jeannine Edwards, saying, "It was a turf race, it wasn’t a dirt race. Horses can train well over the synthetic surface. It doesn’t mean they will run well over it. When he came by the first time and I saw that he was off the bridle, I got worried." Edwards said the Santa Anita crowd gave Curlin a standing ovation when he came back to be unsaddled. Bravo!
7:05 p.m. … Gosden, who spent 11 years training in the United States, tells Edwards: "He’s improved a lot through the year. He’s trained beautifully and he’s mentally relaxed more than ever. I felt the distance wouldn’t be a problem. His sire (Elusive Quality) was a very good miler, but Charlie Whittingham trained Lord At War, the broodmare sire. He won the Santa Anita Handicap at a mile and a quarter."
7:10 p.m. … Princess Haya, Sheikh Mohammed’s wife, had a better day than her husband, as the owner of Raven’s Pass, beating him 2-to-1. Raven’s Pass was bred by Robert and Janice McNair’s Stonerside Stable, which sold the colt earlier this year when Bob McNair opted to get out of racing and concentrate on his NFL football team, the Houston Texans.
Mutuels: Raven’s Pass paid $29 to win, with the exactga paying $150.50, the trifecta $2,395, the superfecta $10,236. Chart.
7:15 p.m. … Dettori’s enthusiasm is such a great asset for the game. He hasn’t always been the most pleasant fellow I’ve run across, but we all have our good and bad days. His love of the game comes through so well at moments like these, however, such as when he gives Bo Derek a big kiss and almost puts his lips on the camera lens He is a showman, one of the best in our business.
7:20 p.m. … In the trophy presentation in the winner’s circle, John Ferguson ignores Gov. Schwarzenegger’s demand to have Raven’s Pass return next year ("I’ll be back!") and defend his title. Sorry, Arnie, but Sheikh Mohammed’s got a little more juice than you do, and he doesn’t have to listen to you.
7:25 p.m. … It takes a jockey to finally thank the Breeders’ Cup corporate sponsors. After the parade of owners receiving Breeders’ Cup trophies all ignored the various race sponsors, Garrett Gomez thanked "all the sponsors" when he received his Bill Shoemaker Award as the outstanding jockey for the third time in the last four years. It’s pretty standard operating procedure in other sports to have the participants thank the sponsors, but racing people are different.
7:30 p.m. … "The great thing about synthetic surfaces….they keep horses safer, and we saw that today," Randy Moss says at the end of the telecast after a brief discussion about how running the main track races on the Pro-Ride is going to be debated. "I wouldn’t hang my head if I was Curlin," Bailey said, who added that Zenyatta gets the edge from him over Curlin for Horse of the Year. Moss concurs, giving the nod to Zenyatta for her perfect record.
7:40 p.m. … Final thoughts.Santa Anita made for a spectacular setting on television, and the racing was equally good. In the last two days, we have seen some tremendous performances, especially by three fillies who stood out: Stardom Bound and Zenyatta on Friday and Goldikova on Saturday. The male horses that made the biggest impression in my mind today were Midnight Lute and Raven’s Pass. But the warrior who made this day so big going in was one who finished off the board: Curlin. He deserved the standing ovation from the Santa Anita patrons for the year he provided to us all in 2008, from Dubai to Kentucky to New York to California. In 16 lifetime starts, this was the first time that Curlin failed to finish in the top three. He’s the best we’ve seen in some time.
The synthetic track will get credit for being a great equalizer for the Europeans, but let’s not forget that this was the first Breeders’ Cup where the American horses were not aided by anabolic steroids. That’s an even bigger equalizer, and perhaps the most significant change in all of the many changes that Breeders’ Cup officials have made in the last 12 months. It was long overdue, but a welcome change nonetheless.
Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report
Sign up for our Email Flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary from Ray Paulick
Visit the Paulick Report for all the latest news throughout the racing world.
Tags: abc sports, albertus maximus, Bill Casner, Breeders' Cup, breeders' cup classic, breeders' cup dirt mile, breeders' cup juvenile, breeders' cup juvenile turf, breeders' cup marathon, breeders' cup mile, breeders' cup results, breeders' cup selections, breeders' cup sprint, breeders' cup turf, breeders' cup turf sprint, Breeders' Cup World Championships, carla gaines, conduit, Curlin, darley, David Hofmans, Desert Code, Diabolical, eagle mountain, espn, garrett gomez, goldikova, handicapping the breeders' cup, hank goldberg, helen pitts, Horse Racing, jerry bailey, jess jackson, joe tessitore, john ferguson, john gosden, john mccririck, karri casner, kenny mayne, marianne chase, Michael Iavarone, michael stoute, midshipman, muhannak, munnings, patrick smullen, Paulick Report, princess haya, pyro, ralph beckett, randy moss, raven's pass, Ray Paulick, rebellion, Richard Migliore, rick dutrow, sheikh mohammed, square eddie, steroids, steve asmussen, two step salsa, vladimir cerin, well armed
Posted in Breeders' Cup | 9 Comments »
|
|
