Posts Tagged ‘Big Brown’

AAEP’S KUMBAYA PAPER

Wednesday, February 18th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
Whenever I think about horse racing’s crazy-quilt regulatory system that has ruling bodies in 38 different states, I recall the time an official at some racetrack asked Hall of Famer Bill Mott to show his trainer’s license before entering a restricted area. Mott reached into his Wrangler’s and pulled out what appeared to be a full deck of laminated playing cards, held together by a rubber band wrapped around the outside.

“It’s in here somewhere,” Mott said, fumbling through individual licenses for Florida, New York, Kentucky, California, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Texas, Illinois, Delaware, Virginia, Louisiana, and maybe even his home state of South Dakota, among others.

Uniform licensing is a concept the industry has been working on for, oh, 50 years or so. They still haven’t got it figured out. In this regard, owners, trainers and other licensees are subjected to some of the most ridiculous regulatory inefficiencies any industry has ever seen. Why?

I thought about this absurdity as I read the racing industry’s latest “white paper,” this one authored by a well-intentioned group of equine veterinarians at the American Association of Equine Practitioners that suggests we all follow their recommendations, pull together, and work in concert for the overall good of the industry.

The average meaningful life of a Thoroughbred industry white paper is about 10 to 14 days – or at least it used to be. That’s about how long it took for the weekly trade magazines to dutifully detail the highlights, and then mail the magazine to their subscribers. The typical reader reaction was a collective yawn. They know how the industry works … or doesn’t. The lifespan of an industry white paper might be shorter today, given the access to the information on various Web sites.

For those who haven’t seen the AAEP treatise, it’s called “Putting the Horse First: Veterinary Recommendations for the Safety and Welfare of the Thoroughbred Racehorse.” Click here to read the entire nine-page report.

For those who want the abbreviated version, here it is: 1) the AAEP believes it is “imperative that the industry urgently demonstrate an ability to affect sweeping change without government intervention”; 2) we need to hold hands and sit around a campfire singing songs until we can reach agreement on issues related to the welfare of the horse 3) horses should not be permitted to race without at least 10 days between starts; 4) some racing secretaries are evil and racetrack management is increasingly clueless about horses; 5) more study is needed in the areas of racing, training and selling 2-year-olds; 6) adopt new whip rules; 7) keep holding hands and singing campfire songs; 8) it’s no longer acceptable for owners to heartlessly discard ex-racehorses, and it’s imperative that all jurisdictions establish and support rehabilitation, retraining and adoption agencies 9) claiming races need reform, with purses no more than 50% higher than the claiming price, drug testing of all claimed horses, and claims for horses that fail to finish a race being voided; 10) develop and adopt uniform rules, penalties, drug testing protocols, violation reporting procedures (stop me if you’ve heard this one before); and 11) keep singing and holding hands, and will someone please throw some more logs on the fire?

This industry is amazing, if for no other reason than for its ability to clear its throat and harrumph when the situation is dire. Since Eight Belles died on the track at Churchill Downs and we celebrated the highs and lows of Big Brown, an anabolic steroid-pumped Kentucky Derby winner (surely not the only one), we have had more task forces, committees, blue-ribbon panels, and alliances than we’ve mustered up before in this short a time. We’ve had the Jockey Club, the National Thoroughbred Racing Association, the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association, and now the American Association of Equine Practitioners sounding off (and I know I’m forgetting some of the other alphabet soup orgs).

And still, Bill Mott has a pocketful of racing licenses. If we can’t do the simple things, what makes the AAEP or any other group think we are going to convince 38 state racing commissions that a $12,500 purse is too high for $8,000 claimers, or that a horse needs 10 days off before racing again?

Let’s look at the first premise of the AAEP’s white paper, that we need to “urgently demonstrate an ability” to make change without government intervention. Haven’t we had enough chances to demonstrate our ability to do so? (I enter Bill Mott’s expired trainer’s licenses into evidence.)

Why and how has the AAEP, a group of veterinarians, taken it upon themselves to state that we must do this without government assistance? I suppose if they were involved in the cattle or poultry or peanut business, they’d suggest we would be better off producing meat and other foodstuffs without interference from the United States Department of Agriculture.

The point is, we need government to help us overcome the dysfunctional regulatory structure that has led us to this mess we are in. We just need to be able to be part of the process, and not be in the adversarial role many in this industry are setting us up to be in. If we repeat the mantra that “government is enemy, government is enemy,” how do you think government is going to respond?

So with all due respect to the AAEP and its veterinarians, please stick to what you know best. In fact, this white paper completely ignores what vets know best, which is the care of horses. Nowhere in the white paper are there recommendations on such procedures as pin firing of shins of young horses, or permitting horses to race just days after receiving joint injections. To be fair, AAEP executive director David Foley said further recommendations will be forthcoming, but should those recommendations have come first, so that their own house is in order?

Tell us what you think about the chances the AAEP’s white paper recommendations will ever be implemented. Read the full report. Take our poll on the left-hand column of the Paulick Report home page, and leave your comments in the space provided below.

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

Sign up for our Email flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary from Ray Paulick

Visit the Paulick Report for all the latest news throughout the racing world.

LIVE BLOG: MR. PAULICK GOES TO THE ECLIPSE AWARDS

Monday, January 26th, 2009

Hank Aaron hits number 715…Secretariat wins the Belmont by 31 lengths…Brett Favre starts 269 games in a row at QB…and now Ray Paulick liveblogs from the Eclipse Awards without a computer! That’s right, Ray will be entering the pantheon of the unlikely as he attempts to bring you the Paulick Report reader unprecedented coverage of tonight’s awards ceremony. We will be operating here at Paulick Report Command Central giving the play by play results of tonight’s event while Ray will be the color commentary via text message.

What are the stars wearing? (We knew Larry Jones would be in his black-tie cowboy get-up, but were taken aback by the Scottish fellow in kilts standing nearby — pictured below.) How many people are sporting Zenyatta for President T-shirts? How many licks does it take to get to the candy center of a Tootsie-Pop? These and other questions will be answered below. Enjoy and keep the comments flowing!

6:56CC…Alright folks, Brad here at Command Central. I will be receiving messages from Ray throughout the night and keeping up to date with the things you won’t be privy to on the telecast. My comments will have a CC for Command Central after the time and the ones from Ray will have a RP after the time.

6:58RP…closest thing to a celebrity I’ve met so far is former WI Gov. Tommy Thompson, who has been hired by the NTRA to oversee the health and safety alliance. Tommy seemed happy to hear that I grew up on the Illinois side of the Wisconsin border.

7:00CC…and the telecst begins. Something about Frank Sinatra and a cocktail party.

7:01RP…Many of the guests were lamenting the passing of Joe Hirsch, the longtime executive columnist of the DRF. The PR learned that NYRA is preparing a memorial for Hirsch the week of the Belmont Stakes in June.

7:04CC…Interviewing Jerry and Ann Moss, they ask if they think Zenyatta could pull Horse of the Year. Gives a solid if not predictable answer.

7:05RP…Good line from Cot Campbell during the blustery cocktail hour outside of the Fountainbleu Hotel. "My hair’s getting all messed up," Campbell said patting down his gray locks. He glanced over his shoulder and saw the shiny pate of Mike Smith and commented, "Mike’s in pretty good shape with the wind."

7:06CC…Who thinks Eight Belles should win 3 year old filly? I’m a Proud Spell guy myself.

7:07CC…Iavarone looks shiny. And the interviewer mispronounced his name. Thinks that it’s the competition was so strong and that’s the reason Big Brown isn’t going to win the HOY award. Either that or maybe it’s because he finished last in the Belmont and bowed out of the BC Classic.

7:10CC…Frank Stronach isn’t there. Wonder why?

7:15CC…Asmussen being interviewed. Sure, it’s good to hear from him but I wonder what his facial hair has to say. And he looked a little scary on screen. Just saying.

7:16CC…announcer just made an interesting observation. Asmussen has more wins than Dutrow and Frankel combined.

7:19CC…I don’t know about you but nothing is more interesting than insurance talk…

7:20RP…Dinner is served! Ceremonies starting soon.

7:22CC…just pushed the new Jockeys show on Animal Planet. Said it was The Hills or Real Housewives of Orange County only with jockeys. Decided jockeys have more drama. Scandalous!

7:24RP…Jess Jackson is here with a new look…a nifty goatee. (Only two bodyguards according to an associate. I don’t have a count yet on the number of bodyguards for Iavarone of IEAH…see earlier post on Eclipse predictions for further explanation)

7:26CC…NTRA Moment of the Year of course is Zenyatta in the Breeders’ Cup. Sounded like six people clapped for the clip.

7:28CC…TWO MINUTES TO POST!!!

7:29CC…Darby Dan with a big ad buy during the break. I hear there’s a website that’s much cheaper than what TVG charges…

7:30CC…Privman starts off the ceremony with a Joe Hirsch memorial.

7:33CC…Faith, I’m efforting a response on your important request…

7:33RP…Nice touch to dedicate the awards to Joe Hirsch. There are several hundred folks here tonight and I’d be hard pressed to find one person who didn’t love Joe.

7:35RP…(FAITH UPDATE) The vine ripened tomato salad was excellent, the seared tenderloin tender (tho a bit overcooked) and the roast garlic shrimp outstanding. I could have used a bit more of the curried sweet potatoes, but I did just squeeze into my tux pants.

7:37RP…Kenny Rice don’t give up your day job to become a stand up comic

7:38CC…and our first technical glitch of the evening!

7:39CC…first (non) surprise of the night, Midshipman wins 2 year old male

7:40RP…more food update…Kendall-Jackson wine is being served to all (whether or not they supported Curlin)

7:41RP…A dinner companion staying at the Fountainbleu rated the dinner "four stars" compared to other restaurants at the hotel

7:42CC…and now 2 year filly goes to…

7:42CC…Stardom Bound!

7:44RP…Even though IEAH now owns Stardom Bound, the award was rightly given to Charles Cono. Fifteen years ago when Kotashaan won HOY, the Eclipse wasn’t given to his longtime owners, the Werthemer brothers, but to the Japanese stud farm that bought him to run in his final start, the Japan cup. They got it right this time.

7:47RP…Bob Baffert isn’t at the awards. Times are tough. He tells me he can’t afford to fly his family from LA. Guess Baffert doesn’t get those Southwest Airlines special fare emails.

7:50CC…John and Brad Henegan from First Saturday in May accept the award they already got.

7:51RP…From one of the Hennegan brothers the first ever Eclipse award shout out to Payless Shoes.

7:54CC…Did you know that WAVE 3 TV won a media Eclipse Award? You did? Oh, I must have slept in that day.

7:54RP…They need more journalism awards…you think? That’s my favorite part of the Academy Awards…best movie review!

7:56RP…The podium reminds me of a Barack Obama press conference when several women advisers were introduced to the media and only the top of their heads showed. Same with the jockeys and Jennie Rees of Courier Journal

7:58CC…the photog award is so embarassing with that misspelled background. Junenile…unreal

8:00CC…Vinnie Perrone just asked for a step stool. No, actually, he demanded one and asked "what kind of operation are you running here?"

8:01CC…and this is why

8:03RP…Anyone remember the Grammys when the band started playing because Sinatra went on too long…Sinatra!!!

8:04CC…And he’s finally finished. Four minutes later. Did anyone not tell him to keep it pithy? I mean, he seems like a nice guy, but honestly everyone is here for things besides Vinnie’s award.

8:07CC…Kenny Rice just bombed like three jokes in a row. Literally no response from the crowd. Love it!

8:09CC…Oooh! An award I’m not 100% sure of the outcome on! Male Turf

8:10CC…The winner is Conduit.

8:11CC…More importantly, this just came in from Ray. Dessert!

8:13CC…Female Turf goes to…

8:14CC…Forever Together

8:15RP…George Strawbridge defines grace and class. He gave a very elegant acceptance on behalf of Forever Together.

8:15CC…If you are watching both the TVG telecast and this blog, apparently Ray is in the future. That’s why he already knew about Strawbridge’s speech.

8:17CC…Apparently Ray was still hungry

8:18RP…Dessert was outstanding…my first roast hazelnut praline, chocolate terrine, coconut bavaroise

8:19CC…Standing ovation for Alice Headley Chandler

8:19RP…Tommy Thompson left his table…I think the media awards got to him

8:20CC…Hopefully Alice will run into Vinnie Perrone in the hallway and talk to him about speech length. That was a perfect acceptance speech.

8:22RP…Weird observation…some people who are seated near the stage are watching the large screen monitor instead. Kind of like the racetrack  where we watch the TVinstead of the horses in front of us.

8:23CC…Steeplechase winner Good Night Shirt

8:25RP…Steeplechase owner..time’s up. Where’s the band when you need them? Hostage taker.

8:28RP…Although the acceptance was about as long as a jump race.

8:29CC…And now for Breeder, Adena Springs, Stonerside and WinStar

8:30CC…Adena Springs wins News at 11

8:31RP…Barbara…I saw Steve Asmussen up close and personal and I found him not the least bit scary looking. But he did growl at me

8:32RP…And I did eat the holy cross on the dessert. Yum!

8:32RP…Love the lecture from the handicapper of the year. He’s really good.

8:33RP…Random thought. Chantal Sutherland is mesmerizing Here she is, sitting with Mike Smith while no doubt catching up on my live blog!

8:35RP…I think Steven Crist wishes he had a hook to yank the handicapper off stage

8:37RP…Now I wish I had a hook for this guy. I take my earlier comments back.

8:39CC…and still going….

8:41CC…like the Energizer Bunny. Seriously.

8:43RP…Dayyam. I missed the Conduit wardrobe malfunction. Had my head down thumbing away

8:44RP…What’s with the Joan Rivers remark? No facelifts for me.

8:45RP…The vets do a great job with the on call program but they are making me feel like I’m at a funeral service. How about a little joke fellas?

8:48RP…Rep Cardoza…pandering for votes and political contributions.

8:53CC…and Benny the Bull wins Male sprinter

8:49RP…Wow…Michael Iavarone is redder faced than me after I spent five hours on the beach

8:51RP…Good news from Iavarone that Benny the Bull will race in 2009…

8:56CC…And now Female Sprinter…

8:57CC…Indian Blessing. I love this horse

9:00RP…I doubt many trainers worked harder than Steve Asmussen in 2008. It really was a remarkable year he had. And he’s got the cutest family in the room…hands down.

9:01CC…For those of you watching on TVG, Ray is quite a bit ahead of us (tape delay). If you don’t want to know before the telecast, look elsewhere.

9:03CC…Which is why you already knew that Asmussen won the award. Barbara, thanks. I was starting to feel sorry for myself. Hopefully Asmussen and Iavarone know it was all in fun!

9:05CC…Well, apparently Stonach won for owner.

9:06RP…I wonder how many racing secretaries that work for Frank Stronach voted for him as leading owner and breeder. I’d imagine they might be more inclined to vote against him.

9:07RP I also wonder how many Breeders’ Cup employees vote and how they voted? Seems they have a vested interest.

9:08RP…Racing secretaries and Breeders’ Cup employees have been part of the NTRA voting members.

9:10RP…and Zenyatta wins. Jerry Moss couldn’t drag trainer John Shirreffs on stage to help him accept Zenyatta’s Eclipse Award.

9:11RP…Moss is the west coast version of George Strawbridge…full of class, extremely articulate and one of the game’s very best. Wish we had more like both of them.

9:13CC…Curlin wins older male. in related news, grass is green and the sky is blue.

9:15RP…Good comment by Jess Jackson saying that older horses can race and also make good sires.

9:16CC…Turk, I’m with you. Why wait when you can hear it from Ray first.

9:17RP…His comment about the industry’s movement to eliminate drugs and become more transparent was well received.

9:18RP…"Keep the horse first, and the horse will take care of you." Well said Jess Jackson

9:19CC…Time for a photo. The Jackson clan.

9:21RP…Curlin wrote a note saying he liked racing but likes his new job even better.

9:22RP…Jerry Moss gets a do-over to thank Mike Smith..this could be a first. Told you he was a class act.

9:23RP…I wonder if Mike stormed off. (Just kidding…there isn’t a more humble guy in the jockey’s room)

9:24CC…Apprentice jockey coming up soon.

9:27CC…Faith, I thought he sent it in Horse Code. (I’m sorry, I couldn’t resist)

9:28RP…Winner is Paco Lopez

9:29RP…Someone wrote to say Jess Jackson looks like Don Rickles. That’s not nice you hockey puck!

9:31CC…And now for outstanding jockey, the Eclipse goes to Garrett Gomez.

9:32RP…Garrett Gomez is one tough dude. I said his smile looked pretty good before dinner and he said all his front teeth were temps. Lost em in an ugly spill and he still has a knot on his hand from that spill. To think he was back in the saddle a few days later.

9:34CC…3 year old male goes to…Big Brown

9:35RP…Cash Asmussen presenting with Todd Schrupp of TVG. Hard to believe Cash was a jockey all those years. So tall.

9:36RP…Interesting comment from Anne Campbell about Michael Iavarone. "He looks like Jerry Lewis (a young Jerry Lewis)."

9:39RP…Schrupp gave a very nice tribute to Larry Jones before introducing the 3 year old filly finalists. Second standing ovation of the night.

9:40RP…It was to thank him for facing the media so tirelessly after the death of Eight Belles in the Kentucky Derby. Well done.

9:41RP…But Proud Spell won

9:42RP…Second politicians of the night at the podium, former KY Gov Brereton Jones owner and breeder of Proud Spell. Jones says organizers can forget about the one minute rule for acceptance speeches, acknowledging his political past.

9:44CC…picture time again, featuring the Iavarone party

9:46RP…Jones acknowledged the many great trainers in the room but said no one was greater than Larry Jones, who also trained Proud Spell.

9:47RP…Horse of the Year next…

9:48RP…Alex Waldrop to present Horse of the Year.

9:49RP…Alex said someone in the room was live blogging…"so be careful what you say." Wonder who he’s talking about…

9:50RP…And the winner is…CURLIN!!!

9:51RP…Jess Jackson high fives the table.

9:52RP…Jerry Moss picks up his wine glass raises in the air and thanks John Shirrefs for a great year

9:53RP…The other two nominees were Zenyatta and Big Brown

9:55CC…And the Horse of the Year picture

9:56RP…Jess Jackson says Curlin still wants to run…but will enjoy his new job

10:04RP…After the awards closed Brereton Jones said he was more nervous accepting the award than he had ever been giving any political speech. I guess that sums up what the Eclipse Awards mean to horse people.

10:05RP…Congratulations to all the winners and a big thank you to our hosts, Cot and Anne Campbell of Dogwood Stable and to the dinner companions I wasn’t able to spend enough time talking with.

That’s it from Miami Beach…

 

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

Visit the Paulick Report for all the latest news throughout the racing world.

Sign up for our Email Flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary.

FEARLESS ECLIPSE PREDICTIONS

Monday, January 26th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
There are many questions to be answered at tonight’s Eclipse Awards from Miami Beach, Fla. (from which I’ll be dutifully live blogging starting sometime after the 5:30 p.m. cocktail hour begins and before TVG goes on the air with its 7 p.m. coverage). Who will get the crown as 2008 Horse of the Year? Will it be the reigning champion, Curlin, or the unbeaten filly, Zenyatta?

Inquiring minds may want to know…will Michael Iavarone of IEAH Stable have more bodyguards than Jess Jackson? How big will Frank Stronach’s posse be? Who will take the first punch at the publisher of the Paulick Report? Iavarone (I’m no fan of his), trainer Steve Asmussen (I wrote that no trainer with a pending drug positive deserves an Eclipse Award) or my former boss, Bloodhorse publisher Stacy Bearse (who needs no further introduction to our faithful readers)? We’ll try to answer those questions and more, going behind the scenes as best we can.

Many of the Eclipse Award winners are obvious (both of the 2-year-old divisions, 3-year-old male, older male and female, jockey and trainer), but there actually is suspense in several categories (3-year-old filly, male and female turf, male and female sprinter, owner and breeder). Unless, of course, someone at the sponsoring organizations – the National Thoroughbred Racing Association, Daily Racing Form or National Turf Writers Association – has leaked the results, something that has happened in the past.

Without access to the leaks, here are my predictions for the night (on the Eclipse Awards front):

2-year-old male – Midshipman (a slam dunk)

2-year-old filly – Stardom Bound (should be a unanimous vote)

3-year-old male – Big Brown (there might be a few stragglers that voted against him)

3-year-old filly – Proud Spell over Eight Belles (performance should win out over sentiment)

older male – Curlin (slam dunk)

older female – Zenyatta (should be unanimous, though I am reminded that some sports writers didn’t vote for Rickey Henderson to get in the Baseball Hall of Fame)

male sprinter – Midnight Lute (if it’s like boxing, the defending champion should have an advantage, and we’re like boxing, right?). This may have been Bob Baffert’s best training achievement in his career (and he could have three Eclipse winners this year without being a finalist for outstanding trainer!)

female sprinter – Indian Blessing over Ventura (the anti-synthetic track votes may come into play here, diminishing Ventura’s win over Indian Blessing in the Breeders’ Cup)

outstanding owner – Unimaginative voters will probably give this to Stronach Stable, based on the highest earnings (though the 2008 leading owner by money won was Zayat Stable, who was not a finalist). Of the three finalists (Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin Racing is the third), IEAH deserves the award if it is strictly based on racetrack performance

outstanding breeder – tough one to call. Adena Springs has the numbers, but the other finalists, Stonerside and WinStar, had very good results from smaller foal crops. With Robert and Janice McNair producing two Breeders’ Cup winners (Midshipman and Raven’s Pass) for Stonerside, they get the nod

trainer – Steve Asmussen, an outstanding horseman and the certain landslide winner (though as I stated in an earlier column, I believe medication positives during the year in question should disqualify individuals or horses from awards consideration)

jockey – Garrett Gomez. Another landslide

apprentice Jockey and steeplechase horse – no clue

Horse of the Year – Curlin, by a comfortable margin…a deserving two-time champion

Tune in to the Paulick Report later tonight to see how wrong I can be!

UPDATE: Due to multiple braincell failure, two hotly contested categories were omitted from the original post.

male turf — Einstein over Conduit. A season of top performances in North America should rate higher than a single Breeders’ Cup win.

female turf — Forever Together (for the same reason as Einstein, even though Goldikova’s BC Mile triumph was nothing short of breathtaking.

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

Visit the Paulick Report for all the latest news throughout the racing world.

Sign up for our Email Flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary.

YOU’VE GOT OPINIONS!

Monday, January 5th, 2009
By Ray Paulick

“It’s hard to get half the people in this industry to agree on what day it is,” a Central Kentucky breeder said to me a couple of weeks ago, shortly after the Breeders’ Cup announced suspension of the stakes supplement program for 2009. “I can’t believe 83% of the people voting in your poll agreed that the Breeders’ Cup board made the wrong decision.”

The day after the results of the Daily Paulick Poll were reported (83% opposed the decision by the board of directors not to use cash reserves to fund the program, 10% supported it and 7% were unsure), the Breeders’ Cup reversed field, reinstating the stakes supplements – at least for 2009. Breeders’ Cup president Greg Avioli said he did not “anticipate the fervor of the response” to the original decision to suspend the program. Apparently, the poll results reflected the response Avioli and board members received in the way of telephone calls and emails from nominators to the Breeders’ Cup from around the country.

This wasn’t the first time judgments ran strong on an issue on which readers of the Paulick Report were asked to vote. The polls are not scientific, but the results are quite interesting and we are flattered by the daily response. This much we’ve learned: You’ve got opinions.

The most recent results, in fact, represent the strongest sentiment of any of the 40 polls we have conducted since just before the Breeders’ Cup World Championships in late October. (Click here to see archives of all the Daily Paulick Poll results.) We asked, “Does the National Thoroughbred Racing Association provide a strong central organization to move racing forward in the future?” The results have been stunning, with 94% saying “no” and only 6% answering “yes.”

In some ways, the question about the NTRA mirrored the results of earlier polls regarding the state of the industry and thoughts about some of the organizations that lead it. In mid-November, we asked, “In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the Thoroughbred industry in the United States at this time.” The question was parallel to the right track/wrong track question the Gallup organization periodically asks of American citizens about the state of the nation.

According to our poll, 91% answered “dissatisfied,” suggesting the industry is currently on the wrong track. Of the remainder, 4% said they were satisfied and 5% were unsure. One e-mailer suggested that the 4% who said they were satisfied must not have understood the question.

Along those same lines, in early December we asked, “Are you confident the individuals in charge of the most prominent racing and breeding organizations in the United States are adequately addressing the problems the industry is currently facing?” That resulted in an 85% no confidence vote, with 10% saying they are confident in our industry leaders and 5% unsure.

A specific question about one of the year’s biggest stories, the creation of the NTRA Safety and Integrity Alliance, indicated skepticism among voters. While 8% agreed that it was a “major step forward in the areas of medication and safety issues and will result in significant improvements” and 27% called it a “good idea, but it’s too early to say whether or not it will be effective,” fully 44% voted that the alliance was “designed to keep the federal government from stepping in and taking action” on safety and medication. Another 22% said it will be “ineffective because the NTRA lacks authority to enforce its recommendations.”

Poll responses to questions about how to improve the economics of racing were less conclusive. For example, we asked which of three areas of growth were most important to the future success of racing: reinvigorating on-track business, expanding account wagering through TV or on-line video streaming, or getting subsidies from slot machines or other forms of gaming. Reinvigorating on-track business got the most votes, 45% of respondents, barely ahead of the 41% who believe account wagering is the industry’s best hope. Only 14% believe growth from slots/alternative gaming is the answer. A more specific question about slot machines ended with a four-way dead heat, with each of the following answers getting 25% of the votes: 1) slots are a short-term fix to boost revenue; 2) they are a long-term necessity for racing to be competitive; 3) they are a necessary evil; and 4) I oppose slot machines at tracks.

On the issue of simulcast revenue, the poll run in conjunction with an article by Fred Pope on what he calls “Priority 1: Racing’s Business Model” found 63% agreeing with Pope that host tracks and owners where the live race is run should get the lion’s share of takeout revenue. Another 29% believe it should be divided equally between the host site and where the bet is taken, and only 7% support the current model that leaves most of the revenue from simulcast wagers with the bet takers.

The level of takeout has been hotly debated in the comment sections of Pope’s article and several other related pieces. Our only poll question on the subject came after the Kentucky Horse Racing Task Force recommended an increase in takeout to help fund additional staff for the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission. Only 17% agreed with that recommendation, with 83% opposed to an increase in takeout to fund the commission.

We’ve touched on many other areas in our polls. For example, 55% of voters opposed Breeders’ Cup putting all of the filly and mare races on the Friday program of the two-day championships, with 18% in support and 27% taking a “wait and see” approach; 49% opposed having the Breeders’ Cup dirt races run on a synthetic track, while 39% supported it and 12% unsure. In the breeding world, in mid-December, 65% of voters said stud fees had not been reduced enough, 31% said the reductions were “about right,” and 4% felt they had been lowered too much. A comparison of the three highest-priced new stallions of 2009 found that Henrythenavigator offered greater value and opportunity for success to breeders than Curlin and Big Brown. The votes were 52% for Henrythenavigator, 44% for Curlin and 4% for Big Brown.

Finally, in light of the depressed bloodstock markets and a downward trend in pari-mutuel handle in 2008, a year-end poll asked readers if they believe 2009 will be a better year. Only 24% said they feel 2009 will be improved from 2008, with 52% saying it will be worse and 24% believing it will be the same.

Naturally, we hope our readers will be proven wrong and that 2009 will be a year that the industry addresses some of its biggest issues: organizational structure, leadership and a new business model that reflects the reality that roughly 10% of wagers are taken on-track where a race is being run. It’s clear there is a high level of discontent currently running throughout the industry, but it’s just as obvious that the passion to have racing stage a comeback is equally strong.

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report


Visit the Paulick Report for all the latest news throughout the racing world.

Sign up for our Email Flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary.
 

COURT VISION, COCOA BEACH HOLLYWOOD TURF FESTIVAL WINNERS

Sunday, November 30th, 2008

By Ray Paulick

When IEAH Stables bought an interest in 2007 Remsen Stakes winner Court Vision from WinStar Farm earlier this year, the son of Gulch had the look of a Derby horse. He eventually lived up to that billing, though his Grade 1 Derby victory came not on the dirt at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May but on the Hollywood Park turf on the last Sunday in November. Under Ramon Dominguez, who earlier in the day won the Grade 1 Matriarch Stakes with Godolphin Racing’s Cocoa Beach, Court Vision made an eye-catching run from last at the top of the stretch to win the Hollywood Derby by three quarters of a length, defeating Cowboy Cal and Midships.

Trained by Bill Mott, Court Vision covered a mile and one-quarter on firm turf in 2:01.43 as the 7-2 second choice in the betting. It was his fifth win in 12 starts and first in a Grade 1 event.

After winning three of four starts as a 2-year-old, Court Vision regressed somewhat on the road to the Triple Crown, finishing third in both the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park and Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. After a disappointing 13th behind IEAH’s Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby, Mott switched the colt to turf, where he finished fourth in the Colonial Turf Cup and an unlucky second, beaten a nose, in the Virginia Derby, both races at Colonial Downs.

Back on dirt in the Travers at Saratoga, Court Vision was never a factor when sixth behind WinStar’s Colonel John, then ended his six-race losing streak with a victory in the Jamaica Handicap on turf at Aqueduct (the first time Dominquez rode him).

Muny set the pace from the outside post position in the Hollywood Derby, going a half mile in :49.41, six furlongs in 1:13.40, and a mile in 1:37.56. Cowboy Cal overtook the frontrunner in midstretch, but didn’t have enough to withstand the fast-finishing Court Vision, who caught him in the final strides. Midships closed well to get third. Based on Court Vision’s position at the one-mile call on the Equibase chart, he flew home his final quarter-mile in about 22 3/5 seconds.

Bred in Kentucky by the W.S. Farish and Kilroy Thoroughbred Partnership, Court Vision was produced from the Storm Bird mare Weekend Storm, a half sister to leading sire A.P. Indy. 

Video of the Hollywood Derby.

Earlier in the Hollywood Park Turf Festival program, favored Cocoa Beach rallied  in the stretch to catch the front-running second-betting choice Precious Kitten and win the Matriach by three-quarters of a length. Juddmonte Farms’ Visit was third.

Cocoa Beach, second to Zenyatta in her last start, the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic, was trying the grass for the first time since her maiden victory in Chile in January 2007. She was purchased by Godolphin last year and sent to Dubai, where she won two of four starts and was third in the UAE Derby. The 4-year-old daughter of Doneraile Court won her first two American starts, including the Grade 1 Beldame at Belmont Park, before running second in the Breeders’ Cup on the synthetic Pro-Ride track. She is trained by Saeed bin Suroor. Cocoa Beach covered the mile on firm turf in 1:35.49.

Matriarch chart.

Video of the Matriarch.

Video of the Hollywood Turf Festival graded races.

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

Visit the Paulick Report for all the latest news throughout the racing world

Sign up for our Email Flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary from Ray Paulick

THANKSGIVING WEEK CHARITY FOCUS: TRANQUILITY FARM

Friday, November 28th, 2008
By Ray Paulick

Earlier this year when 46 Thoroughbreds from a California breeder’s farm wound up by deception at a feedlot in Arizona, their eventual destination likely to be a Mexican slaughterhouse, Priscilla Clark of Tranquility Farm in Tehachapi, Calif., stepped in. Working with a nationwide network of friends and supporters who helped raise awareness of the horses’ plight and, more importantly, the funds to buy them, Clark saved the Thoroughbreds from likely slaughter and within weeks found adoptive homes for nearly all of them.

Without Tranquility Farm, those horses would almost certainly have gone through a terrible ordeal ending with an undignified death, and in so doing tainting the Thoroughbred industry as one that discards its equine participants with little regard for their welfare.

Since 1998, the mission of Tranquility Farm, a 501(c)3 organization, has been to take in Thoroughbreds retired from racing or breeding and to either find them new homes, after rehabilitation and retraining, or give them a comfortable retirement whenever possible. The operation is based at the Harry A. Biszantz Memorial Center, developed on an abandoned horse farm located 120 miles north of Los Angeles. The center was made possible through the generosity of Thoroughbred owner and breeder Gary Biszantz, the former golf club manufacturer and owner of Cobra Farm whose dream was to create a horse sanctuary in honor of his late father. After Biszantz purchased the property, donations came in from a variety of sources throughout the industry to help build new barns, fencing and training facilities.

The current horse population at Tranquility numbers about 100 and includes millionaires, stakes performers and many fan favorites. Click here to see its roster of retirees. Because it cannot accommodate every retired racehorse, the farm prioritizes its adoptees by their racing or breeding accomplishments. Owners are requested but not required to contribute sponsorship funds to defray costs, which exceed $250,000 on an annual basis.

Clark, who has bred and raced Thoroughbreds for many years, serves as Tranquility Farm’s president. She is supported by a board of directors of knowledgeable and influential California racing industry participants.

Click here to find the different ways you can support Tranquility Farm, though one of its most popular fund-raising efforts is its annual calendar. The 2009 calendar, “In the Presence of Champions,” includes such stars as Big Brown, Zenyatta, War Chant, Nashoba’s Key, Lethal Heat, Street Boss, Golden Doc A and Colonel John. Click here to order a copy.

The Paulick Report will spotlight a different charity each day of Thanksgiving week, when we traditionally take time to reflect and give thanks to the blessings we have and to help those less fortunate. This is a difficult time for many Americans, and charitable organizations are feeling the effects of the global economic crisis. We hope you’ll spend a few minutes to learn about some of the charities that make us a better industry, and consider giving to these or to others that we won’t have the opportunity to publicize. Remember that no gift is too small.

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

Visit the Paulick Report for all the latest news throughout the racing world

Sign up for our Email Flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary from Ray Paulick

CURLIN TO LANE’S END?

Wednesday, November 19th, 2008

By Ray Paulick

Lane’s End Farm is expected to announce that reigning Horse of the Year Curlin will enter stud at the Versailles, Ky., farm in 2009 for a live foal stud fee of $75,000, the Paulick Report has learned. Lane’s End is owned by William S. Farish, vice chairman of the Jockey Club and former ambassador to Great Britain for President George W. Bush.

Jess Jackson owns 80% of the son of Smart Strike—Sherriffs Deputy, by Deputy Minister, with the other 20% owned by the Midnight Cry Stable of disbarred attorneys Shirley Cunningham and William Gallion. That share has been the focus of a complicated legal battle resulting from a $42-million judgment against Cunningham and Gallion in a civil case. The two also face criminal charges.

Jackson and wife Barbara Banke have offered to buy Midnight Cry’s 20% for $4 million, based on an appraisal by bloodstock expert Ric Waldman that set a $20-million fair market value on Curlin. While Curlin may have been insured for an amount in excess of $40 million, Waldman’s appraisal took into account the current global economic crisis and recent trends in the bloodstock market. The just-concluded November breeding stock sale at Keeneland resulted in a 46% decline in gross revenues.

Jackson announced Nov. 15 that Curlin would enter stud in Kentucky in 2009, though he did not name a farm. At the time, he said various offers were being considered, and also indicated Curlin could become the first stallion to stand at the Stonestreet Farms in Lexington that he owns. The late-season announcement, made after matings for many broodmares already have been planned, may also have contributed to Waldman’s appraisal, which Andre Regard, an attorney for Gallion and Cunningham, said was below the horse’s true value.

No decision is expected on the Midnight Cry share of Curlin prior to a Dec. 1 court date in Franklin County, Ky. If a judge rules that the share should be sold to Jackson for $4 million, an appeal could extend the legal battle well into 2009.

It is believed Gainesway Farm was a “finalist” in the bidding for Curlin’s stud services. Jackson owns a large share of dual 2005 Classic winner Afleet Alex, who stands at Gainesway, owned by South African Graham Beck and run by his son, Antony. Jackson and the Beck family are both involved in the wine business, Jackson in California as the owner of Kendall-Jackson vineyards and the Becks primarily in South Africa. Jackson sells many of his horses through Gainesway and Taylor Made Sales Agency, which is also believed to have been a finalist to stand Curlin. Jackson also is part owner of 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, who stands at Adena Springs. It isn’t known whether Adena Springs, owned by Frank Stronach, actively recruited Curlin.

With a fee of $75,000, Curlin would be the highest-priced first-year stallion entering stud in Kentucky in 2009. Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown will stand at Three Chimneys Farm for $65,000, the same amount as Coolmore/Ashford’s multiple European Group 1 winner Henrythenavigator, who finished second to Raven’s Pass in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in which Curlin was fourth.

“Curlin has proven himself across two continents with 16 starts, the honor of 2007 Horse of the Year and the greatest North American money-earner in racing history,” Jackson said in the Nov. 15 announcement that Curlin would enter stud in 2009. “He always gave it his all and has done everything we have asked of him. I am proud to announce that he will start a new career in 2009 and contribute his soundness, stamina, durability and athleticism to the breed. I am looking forward to seeing his foals compete and possibly exceed his unequaled racing record.”

At the time of the announcement, Jackson said he would consider one more race in 2008 for Curlin if “an appropriate venue and purse are offered.” Curlin has been ruled out of the Clark Handicap at Churchill and Cigar Mile at Aqueduct, the two most likely races for him, so it’s extremely doubtful he will run again.

Curlin, who began his career under the care of Helen Pitts and was transferred to trainer Steve Asmussen after breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Park early in 2007, retires with record earnings of $10,501,800. He won 11 of 16 starts, with two seconds and two thirds. He won seven Grade 1 races: the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup, consecutive runnings of the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Woodward, Preakness and Stephen Foster Handicap. Bred in Kentucky by Fares Farm, he sold for $57,000 at the Keeneland September yearling sale. Jackson, Satish Sanan and George Bolton bought at 80% interest in Curlin through bloodstock agent John Moynihan for about $3 million after the colt’s maiden win. Jackson eventually bought Sanan and Bolton’s interests.

Curlin’s sire, Smart Strike, stands at Lane’s End for $150,000. Also joining the 2009 roster at Lane’s End is War Pass, the 2007 2-year-old male champion and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile who will stand for $30,000 live foal.

Kevin McGee, legal counsel for Jackson’s Kendall-Jackson Vineyards in California, would neither confirm nor deny that a deal with Lane’s End was imminent. Attempts to reach Will Farish were unsuccessful. Bill Farish, son of the Lane’s End owner, said he could not comment on the matter.

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

Visit the Paulick Report for all the latest news throughout the racing world

Sign up for our Email Flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary from Ray Paulick

IAVARONE DEATH THREAT: IT’S NEWS TO NYRA

Wednesday, October 29th, 2008

By Ray Paulick

The head of security for the New York Racing Association told the Paulick Report Tuesday that no security resources were used to protect IEAH president Michael Iavarone on Belmont Stakes Day, June 7, the day Iavarone said he had been the subject of a “serious death threat.”

Iavarone said in an interview during ABC’s telecast of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships last Saturday that New York Police Department detectives came to his house June 7 to notify him of the threat, which he said came from “an extremist” in Tallahassee, Fla. A letter from this individual allegedly stated that if anything happened to Big Brown in the Belmont Stakes, neither Iavarone nor his family would be safe. The threat was said to have been relayed to the NYPD by the Tallahassee Police Department.

Kenneth Cook, vice president of security for the New York Racing Association, indicated that he was not made aware of any threat to Iavarone from the NYPD or FBI. “In the weeks and months (leading up to the Belmont Stakes), we had continuous contact between myself, the Department of Homeland Security, the FBI, NYPD, Nassau County Police Department and the MTA (Metropolitan Transportation Authority),” said Cook. “We did not divert a single resource to heighten protection for Michael Iavarone.”

Cook, a former deputy superintendent of the New York State Police who joined NYRA in 2003, added:  “There’s a reason why you coordinate your efforts with all the agencies — there was so much information shared that day. Chiefs of police and bureau commanders participated. It would have been a catastrophic error not to communicate that kind of threat. We had celebrities here, along with the governor. Not a single asset was diverted (to protect Iavarone).

Asked if that meant NYRA was not aware of any death threat against Iavarone, Cook said, “You can read between the lines.”

An FBI agent contacted by the Paulick Report would neither confirm nor deny the existence of a death threat: “We don’t comment on this type of inquiry.”

Kelly Wietsma, a publicist for IEAH, said the threat was very real. In a comment posted on the Paulick Report article recapping Iavarone’s revelation during the ABC telecast about the alleged threat, Wietsma said: “In total, there were at least eight detectives on hand at Belmont Park that day that were sent by the NYPD.  It was explained to me, by one of the plain clothes detectives, upon their arrival that the NYPD and FBI had received a letter that was forwarded to them from the Tallahassee Police Department, threatening the lives of the owners and trainer of Big Brown if the horse were hurt or killed. I was able to view the letter, and read it myself. It went on to say that no one at Belmont Park would be safe.

“This was extremely troubling as we did not know who sent the letter or how serious the threats were. They were obviously serious enough to the NYPD to send officers to Mike’s house and to Belmont Park. Michael Iavarone knew nothing of the threats until the officers showed up at his house that morning. You may not have seen detectives with him but they were by his side at all times throughout the day. He was not allowed to go to the paddock area, men’s room, the jockeys room or anywhere on the premises without them.”

The Paulick Report has been unable to confirm the incident with the NYPD’s office of public information.

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

Sign up for our Email Flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary from Ray Paulick

Visit the Paulick Report for all the latest news throughout the racing world

IAVARONE DEATH THREAT

Tuesday, October 28th, 2008
In the nine hours of Breeders’ Cup telecasts last Friday and Saturday, the strangest segment by far came during a brief interview between comedic sportscaster Kenny Mayne and Michael Iavarone, president of the IEAH stable that owns a majority of Big Brown, when Iavarone said he and members of his family had been the subject of a death threat more than four months earlier on the morning of the Belmont Stakes.
Mayne opened the interview by saying Iavarone showed a lot of emotion after jockey Kent Desormeaux pulled Big Brown out of the race at the top of the stretch when the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner was hopelessly beaten.
Iavarone picked it up from there.

“The morning of the (June 7) Belmont Stakes, I had been woken up around 10 a.m.,” he told Mayne. "There was a knock on my door and there were several New York City Police Department detectives. They asked me to come outside because they didn’t want to talk to me in front of my family. They told me there had been a serious death threat lodged against me, basically from Tallahassee, Florida, from an extremist saying that if anything should happen to Big Brown in the race, myself and my family were not safe. Basically I was followed by eight to nine New York detectives all day, everywhere I went. Obviously after the horse was pulled up the rest is obvious.”

Mayne said ESPN/ABC learned of Iavarone’s story the day before the live interview aired and suggested that Iavarone’s emotional reaction to Big Brown’s defeat was “painted by that threat, not what the shortfall was of not winning the Triple Crown.”

“My immediate reaction was split in half,” Iavarone told Mayne. “Obviously there was concern for the horse and concern for my family. I was headed in both directions and both of them were catastrophic at the time. The first thing I did was grab my daughters and make sure we were out of the way and safe and tears were falling. It was just a terrible day for us.”
With 24 hours lead time before the interview, Mayne said ESPN/ABC “tried to contact the detective you said investigated the case and were unable to reach him.” He then asked Iavarone, “Did they ever follow up with you and say the case was closed? Do you feel comfortable now?”

“Obviously the horse is sound and is retired so I would not believe they would have any reason to harm myself or my family,” Iavarone said. “They have not told me the case is closed.”

The strange timing of Iavarone’s revelations notwithstanding, there are some details about his story that just don’t add up. I was seated directly behind Iavarone in the box section of Belmont during the running of the Belmont Stakes, and saw just one person who was clearly serving in a security capacity – a burly African-American man wearing a dark suit, an open collared white shirt and a “Big Brown” button on his lapel. It appears to be the same individual who has traveled with Iavarone to other races, including last weekend’s Breeders’ Cup.

Immediately after the race, while Big Brown was being unsaddled, I stood directly below the IEAH box and took a series of photographs of a shocked Iavarone, who was surrounded by his family members and fellow IEAH executive Richard Schiavo. There appeared to be no additional security around Iavarone and his family, only the same bodyguard described above. Certainly, I didn’t see “eight or nine New York detectives” in the immediate area.

I’m not accusing Iavarone of making up a story about a death threat. There were a series of incidents and revelations that made Iavarone something of a lightning rod with individuals within and outside of the racing community, some of which inflamed animal rights activities. There was the revelation that Big Brown raced legally on anabolic steroids when he won the Derby, the disclosure that Iavarone had lied about his past life as a “high profile banker on Wall Street,” the fact he had been fined and suspended by the National Association of Security Dealers, and the determination to run Big Brown in the Belmont despite suffering a quarter crack and missing training before the race.

Attempts by the Paulick Report to contact New York Racing Association officials to determine their knowledge of the alleged death threat and increased New York Police Department security detail were not successful.

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

Sign up for our Email Flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary from Ray Paulick

Visit the Paulick Report for all the latest news throughout the racing world

PAULICK’S SATURDAY PICKS: A BIG DAY FOR THE EUROS

Friday, October 24th, 2008
By Ray Paulick

Top to bottom, this may not be the most talented group of Breeders’ Cup horses that’s ever been assembled, but it’s the biggest handicapping challenge I can ever recall, especially considering new races like the Marathon, Turf Sprint, Dirt Mile and Juvenile Turf.

As mentioned yesterday, the Breeders’ Cup Web site has loads of good information, including race schedules and post times, wagering menu, free Equibase past performances, a useful wagering calculator, a list of simulcast locations and advice for beginners. You can bet the Breeders’ Cup races through any of the approved account wagering companies.

My handicapping philosophy is to beat the favorite whenever possible, since the average percentage of winning favorites is around 33%. You might discern from the following selections that I think the Europeans are going to have a big day on Saturday. The factors leading me to believe that will be true are 1) the synthetic surface that some Europeans train on; 2) the tighter medication rules that specifically ban anabolic steroids for the first time; 3) the quality of European horses being sent to this year’s event.

Here’s my advance prognostication on the day’s nine championship races. Good luck and safe racing to all.

Special note: please be sure to check back in to the Paulick Report, beginning around 3 p.m.  Eastern, for my live blog of Filly Friday. I’ll also be live blogging Saturday’s nine races, beginning at 1 p.m. Eastern.

Marathon
This looks like a two-horse race between European runner Sixties Icon and Zappa (whose namesake, the late rocker Frank Zappa, was the founder of the Mothers of Invention and was a real-life sixties icon).  That works for me, but it’s an all chalk exacta. I give the edge to Sixties Icon, in part because of jockey Frankie Dettori’s experience edge at mile and a half races. Zappa is sharp and may try to steal the race under Garrett Gomez. Muhannak has plenty of synthetic track experience in Europe and likes the distance. Cedar Mountain  will be closing late.

Selections: 1-Sixties Icon 2-Zappa 3-Muhannak 4- Cedar Mountain

Turf Sprint
One of the great things about the Breeders’ Cup is finding a horse you absolutely love and then discovering that it’s a longshot. That’s the case with Only Answer, a French-based filly in the care of the legendary horseman Andre Fabre, who is in top echelon of Breeders’ Cup trainers. I think she has an excellent chance to beat the boys in this spot, and Santa Anita’s ace morning line maker Jeff Tufts has her pegged at 20-1 on the morning line. Jockey Olivier Peslier, in my opinion, is as good a big-race rider as there is in the world, and he knows this filly well. The downhill turf course is a tricky one for horse and rider, with the run across the main track causing difficulty for some. It’s one of the best “horses for the course” plays in racing, which makes local runners California Flag and Get Funky formidable challengers in here. Fleeting Spirit has a lot of class, as does Diabolical, either of whom are good enough on their best days to win. I’m going for the price play.

Selections: 1-Only Answer 2-Fleeting Spirit 3-Get Funky 4-Diabolical

Dirt Mile
The status of Mast Track is in doubt as I write this, and I would be very surprised if trainer and owner Robert Frankel runs him on Saturday. If he is scratched, that’s going to make things a lot easier for Well Armed, a Tiznow gelding who seems to have found a perfect spot here, though I’d prefer  him to have drawn more of an inside post position. The Eoin Harty runner can go to the lead or rate, depending on the circumstances, and the mile distance suits him perfectly. Surf Cat should be more effective at this distance, too, after running dull races in his last two starts. Bruce Headley has tightened the veteran up with some quick works. No one seems to have more confidence in his horse than Wayne Catalano, and there’s a lot to like about Lewis Michael, who grabs the advantageous rail post. Pyro’s a tough one to assess in here. His only synthetic track try at Keeneland was a disaster, but all synthetic tracks aren’t the same.

Selections: 1-Well Armed 2-Surf Cat 3-Lewis Michael 4-Pyro

Turf Mile
Irish-bred filly Goldikova has made few mistakes in her eight-race career for French trainer Freddie Head, who has enough confidence to run her against colts here at her best distance. She’s drawn perfectly in the four post and has big-race rider Olivier Peslier in the saddle. It’s not the strongest Mile field we’ve seen. Shakis is a game old-timer who always finishes with a rush. If Alan Garcia can avoid traffic problems from the rail, he won’t be far away at the finish. Kip Deville ran a puzzler last time out in Canada on a yielding track for Rick Dutrow. I’d throw that race out as he goes for a defense of his crown. U S Ranger doesn’t win very many but usually gets up for a share of the money and has been facing tough company all year. Whatsthescript got an impossible post position on the outside.

Selections: 1-Goldikova 2-Shakis 3-Kip Deville 4-U S Ranger

Juvenile
Post positions really come into play here, with the two horses I like the most, Bushranger and Midshipman, drawn way outside, a distinct disadvantage in the relatively short run to the first turn. Munnings, who has chased juvenile division leader Vineyard Haven (not entered in the Breeders’ Cup by trainer Robert Frankel) in his last two starts, draws the much friendlier rail post for his first try around two turns. That’s enough to give him the edge in this spot for trainer Todd Pletcher, especially in a race without much early speed. The son of Speightstown should get the best trip under John Velazquez. Bushranger  may be the best horse and he’ll have to be overcome his 11 post. Street Hero has been steady since breaking his maiden in June and remains in top form for Myung Kwon Cho.

Selections: 1-Munnings 2-Bushranger 3-Midshipman 4-Street Hero

Juvenile Turf
Westphalia
looks to me like the obvious choice here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is bet down to near favoritism from his 5-1 morning line. He’s in top form and has had a bit of a rest since his last win at Doncaster in mid-September. Coronet of a Baron obviously has is precocious and talented, and the shift from synthetic to turf by trainer Eoin Harty is an interesting move. Darley already has Midshipman going in the Juvenile and this gives them a good chance to sweep the two races. Of course, arch-rival Coolmore has Bushranger in the Juvenile and Westphalia in here, giving them a strong hand as well. The Darley-Coolmore rivalry will be interesting to follow throughout the two days. Bittel Road is unbeaten on turf and is the morning line choice, but he hasn’t seen this kind of competition yet. Donativum is in the more than capable hands of trainer John Gosden, who knows how to have a horse at peak form when it matters most.

Selections: 1-Westphalia 2-Coronet of a Baron 3-Bittel Road 4-Donativum

Sprint
Smallest number of runners in this race since 1986, obviously a byproduct of two new races: the Filly and Mare Sprint and Dirt Mile. I doubt that defending champ Midnight Lute scared anyone away based on his only start of the year, a dismal 10th in the Pat O’Brien at Del Mar. He’s worked sensationally for Bob Baffert since then, but it’s hard to see him up sharp enough to beat the likes of Street Boss or In Summation. I give the clear nod here to the California horses, led by the Bruce Headley-trained Street Boss. My intuition tells me Bruce Headley didn’t have the son of Street Cry cranked to the max for the Ancient Title when second to Cost of Freedom, and recent works suggest he’s ready to roll here. In Summation is a thorough professional who can be counted on to run his race. Midnight Lute will be running late. Fatal Bullet has the best chance of upsetting the local horses’ applecart.

Selections: 1-Street Boss 2- In Summation 3-Midnight Lute 4-Fatal Bullet

Turf
While Europe’s bigshots were locking horns in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Oct. 5, Mike de Kock was bringing the top-class Eagle Mountain back to the races from a fractured pelvis and year layoff at Newmarket. The Rock of Gibraltor colt won the comeback, a Group 3 race at Newmarket, and some big money subsequently came in on the horse with a British bookmaker  to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf. The former Coolmore/Aidan O’Brien runner looked sharp in a morning spin at Santa Anita is primed for a big effort. Soldier of Fortune comes off a hard-fought defeat for O’Brien in the Arc. That was just his third race of the year and he might have another good one in him. Winchester turned in a monstrous performance at Arlington Park to win the Secretariat for Dermot Weld, far surpassing his European form. This is a big step up, but he showed a fondness for American style racing in that effort. Conduit completes my all- European superfecta. American turf horses appear weak again this year, but let’s not forget how English Channel romped in the 2007 Turf over supposedly superior Europeans.

Selections: 1-Eagle Mountain 2-Soldier of Fortune 3-Winchester 4-Conduit

Classic
By the time the finale rolls around, we should have a pretty good idea how European turf horses have adapted to Santa Anita’s synthetic Pro-Ride surface. I don’t have the benefit of knowing that right now, so I can only speculate how Duke of Marmalade, Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass will take to the track. But I guess we can say the same thing about Curlin, who has trained well on the track but never raced on a synthetic strip. Curlin may be the best horse we’ve seen in the last 10 years, in terms of his accomplishments if not his brilliance. But based on his last two victories over relatively weak competition, I think he’s beatable here. But who will beat him? Go Between, a synthetic track specialist who’s logged thousands of miles this year going from coast to coast? Casino Drive, the unbeaten but lightly raced, Japanese-trained sibling to two previous Belmont Stakes winners? Colonel John, the best 3-year-old in training following the retirement of Big Brown? The Aidan O’Brien duo of Duke of Marmalade and Henrythenavigator, who have combined for nine Group 1 victories on European turf this year? All have a realistic chance, but I’m taking the John Gosden-trained Raven’s Pass for the upset under Frankie Dettori. The Elusive Quality 3-year-old colt hasn’t gone beyond a mile, but Gosden knows from his previous experience in California that most top-class Europeans can stretch their ability out in the U.S. Raven’s Pass  has had a month off since defeating Henrythenavigator in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and is in absolute top form. Curlin will run hard as always, but he’s had a long year for trainer Steve Asmussen. Go Between is a steady performer for Mott, who’s handled him intelligently all year. Colonel John may be the best 3-year-old, but the jury is still out on how good this year’s sophomore crop really is.

Selections: 1-Raven’s Pass 2-Curlin 3-Go Between 4-Colonel John

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

Sign up for our
Email Flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary from Ray Paulick

Visit the Paulick Report for all the latest news throughout the racing world