Posts Tagged ‘alex brown’

Alex Brown is among those in the anti-horse slaughter community who pointed out to the Paulick Report recent changes in Canadian regulations regarding drugs not permitted in horses intended for slaughter in Canada. In this following article, Brown says an extremely high percentage of American-trained Thoroughbreds are prescribed one of the newly prohibited drugs, phenylbutazone, otherwise known as Butazolidin or Bute. What isn’t known is how this new ban will affect the transportation and slaughter of horses from the United States into Canada. – Ray Paulick
 

By Alex Brown
Bute is banned for food animals, our horses are not food animals.
 
The United States Food and Drug Administration released a document in 2003 establishing that phenylbutazone (Butazolidin, or Bute) is not fit for horses intended for the food chain.  According to the document, Bute is a carcinogen, as determined by the National Toxicology Program.  The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) recently released a document establishing revised guidelines or horses intended to be slaughtered in slaughter houses in Canada.  In that document there is a list of substances that are not permitted for horses intended for the human foodchain, regardless of when the substance is ingested.  No quarantine period for these substances.  They are simply banned.  Bute is on that list.
 
Data compiled by the Daily Racing Form indicates that in 2009 99% of horses that ran in California pre-raced on Bute (7391 out of 7443).  In a similar study of Suffolk Downs runners, 92% of horses pre-raced on Bute (1062 out of 1158).  As I ask trainers about their use of Bute for pre-racing, trainers tell me they pre-race on Bute regardless of the condition of the horse.  It is not because the horse is unsound, it is because we can and it does not slow the horse down for the race itself.
 
As horsemen we know that pre-racing on Bute is only one example of when Bute is administered to our racehorses.  Many horses train on Bute as part of their daily regimen. 
 
Is it not time now to ask our racing leaders to publicly support an end to slaughter, or at least ban racehorses from the food chain.  It is clear that racehorses are not fit for human consumption from a food safety standpoint and knowingly allowing this practice to continue cannot be justified.  

We should perhaps also ask the same question of the American Association of Equine Practitioners (AAEP) and the American Veterinary Medical Association (AVMA). A vet, more than anyone, knows that our racehorses are administered Bute, and they now must undersrtand that Bute is prohibited for food animals.
 

It’s that time of year again. Turf writers, handicappers and bloggers get an extra early start on predicting who will be in the final field of 20 on that first Saturday in May. Is it premature? No doubt. Is the field set in any way? Not on your life. But part of the fun of any sport is to attempt to look into a crystal ball and predict the future.

Which brings us to the second annual Paulick Derby Index this year brought to you by the Simon family’s Vinery LTD. We would very much like to thank our sponsor for making this possible. Additionally, the impressive band of PDI voters, some old faces and some new, are what really make this AP Poll for the Derby Trail work. A special thank you from the Paulick Report to all 25 voters that are not currently on our staff!

Next week, look forward to a more in-depth analysis by Ray Paulick of his top ten and the opportunity for fans to vote on their favorites, thus adding a 28th vote to next week’s poll. We’ll be offering that opportunity Sunday night after the weekend’s races have been run in our daily poll located at www.paulickreport.com.

The list of contenders is wide open this week and should remain so for some time. Are you inclined to go with the early favorite in Lookin at Lucky or hoping for a repeat of last year and searching for the next Mine That Bird? Where did our poll go right? How would you have voted differently? Read through the poll and then let us know where you stand.

Much has been written and said about the incident at the starting gate before the Breeders’ Cup Classic involving Quality Road, who was eventually scratched from the race after he refused to load. Alex Brown, an exercise rider for trainer Steve Asmussen, publisher of the Alex Brown Racing website, and a leader of the anti-slaughter movement, offers his opinion on the subject. – Ray Paulick

By Alex Brown
For animal rights activists this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic was not about the grace and brilliance of Zenyatta. It was about the “animal abuse” targeted at Quality Road by the gate crew, and the platform that abuse provides to support an anti-racing agenda.

I have read Internet articles, and have been forwarded e-mails targeted to news reporters, that include rhetoric that is deliberately inflammatory and without substance. Some of this discussion is posted here.

The rhetoric includes the idea that the gate crew is vindictive. What?  That the gate crew favored hometown Zenyatta at a cost to others.  Does this really deserve a response? I have read speculation that Quality Road was struck with a buggy whip after he was blindfolded. I would think that those who appear so excited about this opportunity to highlight our sport in such poor graces would at least confirm whether or not Quality Road was indeed struck with a buggy whip after being blindfolded. And finally I read in an e-mail about the number of horses that have died at the hands of gate crews. Really, how many?

The reality is that much of this rumor and speculation comes from people who know little about our horses and horse racing.  And their target audiences, who are similarly less knowledgable about our sport, are easily convinced.  If two people say it on the Internet, it must be true.

I have worked with many gate crews in North America, from Houston in Texas to Toronto in Ontario. Working for trainer Steve Asmussen, we bring each horse to the gate for schooling each week.  I see the gate crew work a lot.  The gate crew’s job is tough and not without risks. I have not always agreed with the decisions they have made with horses I am riding that are reluctant to load.  But their decisions are always made with their best intentions. Those working on gate crews do, for the most part, have a “machismo” type of attitude.  But they are putting themselves in risky situations on a frequent basis.

So I am a little aggrieved that the only thing animal rights people want us to remember about Zenyatta’s terrific performance is the near tragic circumstances that conspired before the race.  And these same animal rights people are on my team.  We are all arguing for the end of horse slaughter.  We believe it is inhumane and unnecessary. But if you are a horseman who should you believe? The pro-slaughter argument that horse slaughter is humane and is necessary or the anti-slaughter argument that it is inhumane and unnecessary. This latter argument is delivered by the same people who are willing to use speculation and inflamed rhetoric to damage our sport.

And for anyone interested in the reality of the Quality Road situation, here it is. Ugly, yes.  But let’s stop the speculation and inflamed rhetoric and if there is something to learn from this situation then let’s learn.  And let’s hope we see Quality Road back at the races to show us how brilliant he too can be.

Finally, thanks are due to the guy on the gate crew who managed to catch hold of Quality Road as he came out of the gate, blindfolded.  Without his quick thinking I shudder to think what might have happened.

It has been almost two weeks since Mine That Bird and jockey Calvin Borel shocked the sports world with their improbable long shot victory in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. And as with any Derby aftermath, the question lingers in the air; will this be the year we end the Triple Crown drought? If our voters are any indication, the answer is an emphatic no as Mine That Bird is ranked in fourth place among the 14 horses prospective Preakness starters.

Furthermore, Calvin Borel’s decision to forego the Derby hero to ride the amazing Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness, an unprecedented move in the 135 years of the Kentucky Derby, goes even more to the point that this may not be the year racing celebrates its 12th Triple Crown champion. Instead, the consensus of our 23 voters, including the fans, was overwhelmingly in favor of Rachel Alexandra to run away with this much anticipated race. Will this hold true? Will trainer Bob Baffert spoil the Oaks/Derby story line with Pioneerof the Nile? Or perhaps we will see another unlikely outcome with a different long shot coming out of nowhere to take the prize. Only Saturday will tell.

Ray Paulick’s Preakness Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. Sure, he looked like he was running in slow motion in the Kentucky Derby compared to Mine That Bird when he rocketed up the rail to victory, but I think the condition of the racetrack had a lot to do with the outcome of the race. Pioneerof the Nile was well off the rail on what I think was the slower part of the track all the way and closer to the pace than expected. I liked the son of Empire Maker going into the Derby, and I think he dispelled concerns that he was a horse that could only run on synthetic tracks. His workout on Monday morning that prompted trainer Bob Baffert to give Pioneerof the Nile the green light to go to Pimlico indicates he came out of the Derby in very good shape.

2- Papa Clem. Smart Strike colt wanted to run more in the early going of the Kentucky Derby while jockey Rafael Bejarano was trying to get him to settle off the pace, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a change of tactics for the Preakness. Gary Stute-trained colt has shown versatility in the past, going to the front and setting moderate fractions to win or coming from midpack, as he did in taking the Arkansas Derby. Preakness field won’t be without pace, with Big Drama and Take the Points expected to show early speed. I’d look for Papa Clem to be just behind the early leaders.

3-Rachel Alexandra. The only knock on the filly is that she hasn’t really faced top-class competition yet. The Kentucky Oaks was her first Grade 1 race, and the field was pretty weak by Oaks standards. Nevertheless, what she did, running away from her beleaguered rivals to win by 20 π lengths, with her jockey sitting like a statue (except for the occasional glance back), was remarkable. This is a huge step up, and I’m not convinced that she’s up to the task.

4-Friesan Fire. Big disappointment in the Kentucky Derby after being sent off as the betting favorite on a sloppy racetrack that everyone thought he would like, following his eye-catching Louisiana Derby win in the slop at Fair Ground. Got bumped around pretty good at the start and came back with some minor cuts and scrapes. A.P. Indy colt has bounced back quickly for trainer Larry Jones and his Tuesday morning workout at Pimlico (five furlongs in :58.40) was very sharp.

5-Mine That Bird. Can’t take the Kentucky Derby victory away from him, no matter how strange the track might have played or how all the so-called “experts” (myself included) dismissed his chances going into the race. He was champion 2-year-old in Canada last year, and it’s clear that in his two losses in New Mexico he didn’t get the right kind of trip. Whether he was pushed to the lead early by Casey Lambert or moved on his own, he came up empty in the stretch of both the Borderland and Sunland Derbies. I think the track and especially a rail bias played in his favor for the Kentucky Derby, but Calvin Borel deserves a great deal of credit for saving Mine That Bird for one big run from far back. I don’t see a repeat performance in the Preakness.

6-Musket Man. Finished with determination in the Kentucky Derby after suffering some early problems, closing to get third while on the far outside, the deepest or stickiest part of the racetrack that day. Never worse than third in seven lifetime starts.

7-Take the Points. Skipped the Kentucky Derby to point for the Preakness, so trainer Todd Pletcher has a very fresh horse going into the race. May not have liked the synthetic surfaces or maybe he just wasn’t sharp  enough to win either of his two California starts. I wouldn’t be surprised to see big improvement.

8-Big Drama. Almost certain to set the pace in the Preakness, and though the Montbrook colt has stretched his speed out to 1 1/16 miles before, he hasn’t done it against this level of competition.

9-General Quarters. Didn’t really like his chances in the Kentucky Derby and I don’t think he’s moved up with his training since finishing 10th at Churchill Downs.

10-Terrain. On a five-race losing streak since being moved up from third to first in the Arlington-Washington Futurity last September. Would take a major form reversal to threaten here.

In a week that should have shown little movement in the rankings of the Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment, the Paulick Derby Index has actually shown some fluctuation as co-favorite Quality Road was withdrawn from the race on Monday because of complications resulting from a quarter crack. I Want Revenge, clearly now the favorite among our ballot stuffers, will lead a top ten that has lost some star power with several favorites not making the trip due to injury. That being said, this is still as strong a group as we have seen in years. The Derby this year should be an exciting one to watch with anywhere from 5-10 horses in legitimate contention.
 
You will also notice that the final week’s Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment features only the top ten contenders. We did this to put an onus on the top echelon of the field and make our last list more exclusive.

Finally, due to the fact that all ballots are submitted by 9 PM EST Monday night and well before Square Eddie’s withdrawal, you will see him on several ballots.
 
Will the PDI be the great predictor it portends to be on Saturday? Only time will tell.

1-Pioneerof the Nile. The Kentucky Derby is a tough race to win, even if everything goes your way, and it’s almost impossible for a horse to win if his training has been interrupted. Witness Unbridled’s Song, who battled foot problems coming up to the 1996 Derby, where he might have been the best horse but finished fifth while racing with a bar shoe on the problematic foot. If Quality Road’s connections felt their horse was sound and sent him to Louisville, I would have bet against him, simply because of the interruption in training. Everything has gone perfectly for Pioneerof the Nile: no interruptions in training due to bad weather or nagging injuries, and he is coming up to this race in the best form of his career. The Empire Maker colt has done everything asked of him, and I doubt trainer Bob Baffert would trade places with anybody.

2-I Want Revenge. It’s the horse, stupid. I’m no fan of trainer Jeff Mullins or the IEAH partners that bought into this son of Stephen Got Even, but I do like I Want Revenge. How can you not like a horse that does what he did to win the Wood Memorial after a disastrous start? The race before that, the Gotham Stakes, he showed enough early speed to press the pace and draw off in the stretch to a an easy victory. He is 0-for-2 against Pioneerof the Nile, though his first loss, by a nose in the Cash Call Futurity, was in his first start after breaking his maiden. I think he’ll be the betting favorite, but if Pioneerof the Nile beats I Want Revenge, people will be scratching their heads and wondering why.

3-Dunkirk. Todd Pletcher has kept the son of Unbridled’s Song under the radar, staying in Florida to train while the rest of the field is in Kentucky, and I don’t fault his logic that the track on Derby Day will likely be different from the surface everyone trained on in the weeks leading up to the race. Always seems to be that way. The colt has enormous talent, but there remains that issue of a lack of experience that has stopped many previous Derby contenders with a similar profile.

4-Friesan Fire.  One thing we know: if it rains as expected, and the track is sloppy, Friesan Fire will be one happy horse. The A.P. Indy colt seemed to relish the sloppy Fair Grounds surface while winning the Louisiana Derby in a cakewalk. His training up to the race for Larry Jones has been sensational, and the only thing his resume lacks is a victory over tough competition.

5-Musket Man. Beating Giant Oak in the Illinois Derby was no great accomplishment (doesn’t somebody always beat Giant Oak?), but it’s hard to fault a horse with five wins in six starts. Yonaguska colt seems like the grinder type—not much early speed or quick mid-race acceleration—but if he gets a good enough trip under Eibar Coa I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in the top flight at the eighth pole.

6-Papa Clem. Won the Arkansas Derby coming from off the pace, but Smart Strike colt has enough speed to be close up in the early going and maybe even make the lead if no one else wants it. Gary Stute learned from his father, Mel, the West Coast wizard of speed, so a late-week blowout of two or three furlongs might be used to sharpen up Papa Clem after a series of longer works.

7-Chocolate Candy. Has only one way of going, settle in near the back of the field and make a late run, so you know that racing luck will play a role for Candy Ride colt. Hollendorfer has won the Kentucky Oaks twice (Lite Light in 1991 and Pike Place Dancer in1996), proving he can win at the top level of the game while being based in California’s “B  Circuit” in the Bay Area. Training well, but has to have everything go his way for a victory.

8-Advice. Wise guys are asking how a horse that couldn’t win the Sunland Park Derby is going to win the Kentucky Derby.  Real Quiet, who came within a nose of winning the 1998 Triple Crown, couldn’t win in New Mexico, either, finishing third there as a 2-year-old in a pair of races. Advice demonstrated some quality last year, finishing second but DQed and placed third in the Arlington-Washington Futurity, and his last to first rally in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes was eye-catching. But races were on Polytrack, however, and he has yet to prove himself on a conventional dirt track (though the same can be said of Pioneerof the Nile).

9-Desert Party. I like the way the son of Street Cry has trained since arriving from Dubai, but I’ve seen previous Godolphin horses looking sharp in the morning before fading on Derby afternoon. If this one is any different, he’ll win without my backing at the windows.

10-Mr. Hot Stuff. Have always thought this Tiznow colt was going to develop into a good one, but it’s taken longer than expected. He’ll be running late in the Derby, but I think he looks more like a Travers winner.

It was a weekend of much consequence for the ever-shaping Derby Trail. In the Santa Anita Derby, Pioneerof the Nile strengthened his credentials as a top pick with an impressive win while Chocolate Candy shot up four places on the Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment on the back of a strong second place finish. In Illinois, Musket Man finally made a case strong enough for our voters, cracking our list for the first time at number nine. And I Want Revenge showed his prowess with a highly unusual and seemingly impossible ride in the Wood Memorial. Despite severely stumbling out of the gate, he stuck with the race and battled from last to first.

The weekend also had its fair share of disappointments with poor performances by hopefuls Imperial Council and Mr. Hot Stuff. However, most disturbing was the sudden scratch of The Pamplemousse, rendering this previous favorite completely off the Derby Trail. Quality Road also had a run in this weekend when a quarter crack was discovered in his right hind hoof. Since the news broke after many of our balloters had submitted their selections, look to see how far Quality Road drops in next week’s poll.

Next weekend, the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes will help to round out the Derby picture for many of the horses on our list including Old Fashioned, Papa Clem, Win Willy, Patena and Mafaaz.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. With the scratch of The Pamplemousse, the Santa Anita Derby came up a completely different kind of race than trainer Bob Baffert was hoping to get for the Empire Maker colt. But despite the crawling pace, Pioneerof the Nile came through with perhaps his best performance yet. He’ll get a fast pace in the Kentucky Derby, giving him the opportunity to make the kind of late run that Baffert thinks will best suit him.

2-I Want Revenge. Spectacular performance in the Wood Memorial, showing the Stephen Got Even colt’s versatility. He showed speed in the Gotham and blew away the field at the top of the stretch, and had to utilize a completely different running style here. I’m not big into offering owners advice, but if I were David Lanzman and Mike Iavarone, I’d get some duct tape and put it on trainer Jeff Mullins’ mouth when the media shows up Derby week. Nothing he says is going to help him in the mess he created  at the Aqueduct detention barn last Saturday prior to the Bay Shore Stakes.

3- Dunkirk. He moved up without racing this week, and the chances of getting into the starting field with his limited graded stakes earnings look better than ever. On the downside, if Dunkirk, with his expensive yearling price tag and fancy pedigree, does win the Derby and other big races as a 3-year-old, what are the chances we’ll see him as a 4-year-old next year. But I digress. He is an exciting prospect who should improve, if serious physical ailments aren’t the reason for his light record.

4-Quality Road. I had to chuckle when I saw the headline “Quality Road Quarter Crack Not Serious” on one web site. It’s right there with “mild” heart attack.  That’s the same kind of spin Team IEAH was trying to put out last year when Big Brown’s quarter crack re-emerged just before the Belmont, forcing Rick Dutrow to alter training. Missing any training in the final weeks before the Kentucky Derby is a serious setback, so we need to watch this one closely.

5-Friesan Fire. He’s got some history to beat with his long layoff and Louisiana wintertime route to Churchill Downs, but this is a good horse, and the Vinery Stable (co-owners with Rick Porter’s Fox Hill Farm) is one of the hottest things going in racing right now, from limited numbers.

6-Old Fashioned.  Arkansas Derby is the big test. Is he just a miler? I like the rider switch and think the Unbridled’s Song colt will avenge his only career loss, suffered when when he was a bit too close to a  hot pace on a tiring Oaklawn track in the Rebel.

7-Musket Man. The under the radar horse can’t stay hidden any longer after winning Saturday’s Illinois Derby impressively. Son of Yonaguska is one of those horses that looks better on paper the longer you look at him, though it’s a pedigree that comes up light on  stamina.

8-Desert Party. Not much new to report on UAE Derby runner-up. I’m sure it was a quiet week for him.

9-Chocolate Candy. Ran a really solid race against Pioneereof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby, closing ground late on super slow fractions. I know it’s horse racing (not owner racing), but would love to see Jenny Craig in the winner’s circle at Churchill Downs on Derby Day with a son of Candy Ride that she bred with her late husband. After a week of dealing with the likes of Ernie Paragallo, I’d like to see good people rewarded, and she certainly qualifies.

10-Papa Clem. Let’s hope the Arkansas Derby comes up with a fast track. If it does, I wouldn’t be surprised to see son of Smart Strike be the one to upset Old Fashioned. The win would further validate the strength of the West Coast’s 3-year-olds, a point that’s already been made by I Want Revenge’s New York performances.

After a very strong Derby prep weekend, featuring races in Dubai and Florida, several winners emerged. Quality Road for the first time makes his ascension to the top of our Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment despite having fewer first-place votes than second-place finisher Friesan Fire. His impressive win in the Florida Derby proved only to cloud the upper echelon of 3-year-olds this year with five horses within striking distance at the top. Next weekend’s Wood Memorial (I Want Revenge) and Santa Anita Derby (Pioneerof the Nile, The Pamplemousse) should answer many questions…or further delay a consensus favorite.

The aforementioned Pioneerof the Nile wins the "What have you done for me lately" award, dropping from 2nd to 4th and losing six first-place votes despite having done nothing to hurt his case. On the flip side, despite losing in the Florida Derby, Dunkirk actually moved up a place this week. Theregoesjojo went bye bye, dropping off our list from 13th place. And Beethoven rolled over once more as he continued his hot/cold relationship with our voters after skipping the Florida Derby due to an injury.

Ray Paulick’s top 10 and analysis:

1-Quality Road. It wasn’t the strongest Florida Derby field ever assembled (that’s an understatement), but Quality Road progressed from a one-turn miler to a two-turn horse very impressively. The final time was meaningless (because of how the track was playing), though I like the way he lengthened his stride and turned back a talented Dunkirk down the stretch. The Jerkens family has never been big on traveling road shows, so it will be interesting to see where and how trainer Jimmy Jerkens prepares the son of Elusive Quality for the Kentucky Derby.

2-Pioneerof the Nile. His big test comes Saturday in the Santa Anita Derby. Here is how clocker Bruno De Julio (www.racingwithbruno.com <http://www.racingwithbruno.com> ) described son of Empire Maker’s five-furlong workout over Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride synthetic surface last Wednesday: “Pioneerof The Nile, with Joe Steiner on board, worked a strong five furlongs in 59.1 and out in 111.2. Galloping out in 126 for seven furlongs. He extended strongly through the lane. Baffert definitely tightened the girth on ‘Nile and he responded with a good work. Nile is not the prettiest of movers on this track, and that drew some criticism from some onlookers. He has never really been a horse that has handled the pro-ride ‘pretty’.” Do I think Baffert will have tightened the screws completely for the Santa Anita Derby? Of course not, so I won’t be that surprised to see Pioneerof the Nile come up short in his final Kentucky Derby prep.

3-The Pamplemousse. With Julio Canani in Dubai, front-running son of Kafwain worked rather unimpressively, six furlongs in 1:13 flat, according to Bruno De Julio, in his final Santa Anita Derby tune-up. Here are Bruno’s comments: “He started quickly early as he broke from the pole pulling Alex Solis from the saddle. He went the first half mile in 47 flat while being kept wide off the fence and finished in a lackluster 26 flat on our watch. Railroad, the old claimer, ran up inside of him in the lane, but that didn’t get ‘Mousse’s dandruff up at all. In fact, he was shut down late. Alex Solis seemed to be moving his hands just slightly, as he did last week. The colt galloped out rather slowly in 127 and change.” Despite the less-than-rave reviews, I think The Pamplemousse will be tough to catch in the Santa Anita Derby.

4-Dunkirk. Showed he’s a very good horse when closing against a Gulfstream Park dirt track with a speed bias in the Florida Derby. Trainer Todd Pletcher has been playing some serious catch-up with the Unbridled’s Song colt, as this was just his third start of the year after going unraced as a 2-year-old. If he gets into the Derby field, he will be highly regarded, but the lack of experience unquestionably plays against him. Nevertheless, I thought his Florida Derby performance was a huge step forward and puts him into the ranks of leading contenders.

5-Friesan Fire. The more I review the decision to prep the son of A.P. Indy at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, the more skeptical I am that he’s in quite the same league as the Florida and California-based 3-year-olds. Louisiana has seldom been a successful route to the Kentucky Derby, and I really haven’t seen that much in terms of depth of competition that makes me change my mind. Besides, the daylight victory in the slop in the Louisiana Derby may be less meaningful than the margin indicates simply because of the track condition.

6-I Want Revenge. No reason he can’t repeat his Gotham performance this Saturday in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, unless the back-and-forth travel from California to New York gets to him. Have to admit I overlooked this son of Stephen Got Even until the Gotham, probably in part because of the big-race inexperience of trainer Jeff Mullins. Here are clocker Bruno De Julio’s comments on his final work last Sunday at Hollywood Park: “He worked solo and relaxed nicely to the pole in 12.3, 24.2, and 36 flat to the 1/4 pole. You can see him winding up and (Joe) Talamo barely shook the reins. The colt pricked his left ear inside the furlong pole waiting forTalamo to ask him. Talamo never did and the colt shut himself off and finished in 59.4 on our watch. Final 1/4 in 23.4 and out in 112.4 for six furlongs, 127.1 for seven furlongs and out a mile in 143 flat. He actually went out a mile and three quarters before pulling up.” Bruno seems to be saying the colt can run all day.

7-Old Fashioned. One-time leader of the division slips a few more spots as other contenders step up. Son of Unbridled’s Song will need to turn in impressive performance in the Arkansas Derby to regain any support, and even then the competition won’t be that deep, so it would be a somewhat hollow victory.

8-Desert Party. Lost the UAE Derby to stablemate Regal Ransom on a track that really played to speed. It’s so difficult to know how much a transoceanic trip is going to take out of the Dubai-based horses, but I wouldn’t throw son of Street Cry out completely just because of the UAE loss.

9-Imperial Council. Son of Empire Maker remains the sleeper in my top 10. A big effort in the Wood against I Want Revenge moves him up considerably, but a flat performance may take him out of the Derby altogether.

10-Regal Ransom. Fought off Desert Party while winning the UAE Derby in solid performance. Historically, the race hasn’t meant much vis a vis the Kentucky Derby, but I have to think that’s going to change one of these years.

The last slow weekend before Derby was reflected by a basic stagnation of the Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment. The only race of note this weekend, the Lane’s End Stakes, did not really produce any headlines.The winner Hold Me Back did not crack even one of our Top Ten lists this week and none of the other horses in that field are anywhere to be found in this week’s PDI. Perhaps most notable was that the only Derby winner to come out of the Lane’s End (Jim Beam Stakes at that time) passed away yesterday. Lil E. Tee left a legacy that does not look to be repeated any time soon, at least not this year. Of course, Hard Spun was the closest since as runner up in the Derby in 2007.

The only major addition to the field was the Kempton winner Mafaaz who despite only being voted on by three of our voters, actually picked up a first place vote. It should be interesting to see how this international experiment will affect this year’s race.

Next week and beyond, we look forward to the top prep races including the Santa Anita Derby, Florida Derby and Wood Memorial. Look for a much more significant shakeup in the weeks to come.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. So his Beyer figure wasn’t very good in winning the San Felipe. I have a great deal of respect for Andy Beyer and his figures, but I’m not sure they have got synthetic surface performances figured out as well as races on dirt. It’s becoming increasingly popular to knock synthetic track winners, but this son of Empire Maker keeps on winning, and that’s still the name of the game.

2- The Pamplemousse. I can see this horse beating Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby if there’s not much pace to go with him. Kentucky will be a different story with lots of speed, and I’m not sure a son of Kafwain really wants a mile and a quarter.

3- Friesan Fire. Impressive Louisiana Derby winner will have a long rest between starts if Larry Jones trains him up to the Kentucky Derby as he’s recently indicated. The successful road to the roses hasn’t traveled through New Orleans that often, however.

4-I Want Revenge. How much is a half interest in the Stephen Got Even colt worth to IEAH stables, which has been attempting to buy him in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle two years in a row following Big Brown’s success in 2008. Sources say the price is about $5 million.

5-Quality Road. Here comes the test for the son of Elusive Quality in this weekend’s Florida Derby. First time around two turns will tell us a lot about whether or not he is truly Derby material.

6-Old Fashioned. With an additional week’s time to reflect, I’m beginning to wonder if maybe Old Fashioned was just a very precocious 2-year-old whose classmates are now catching up to him. He’ll need to rebound big time in the Arkansas Derby.

7-Desert Party. Son of Street Cry needs to do win big in this weekend’s UAE Derby in Dubai. Anything short of that means Sheikh Mohammed’s quest for the Kentucky Derby will have to wait another year.

8-Imperial Council.  Might not win the Kentucky Derby, but something tells me the Empire Maker colt will be an important horse before the year is over.

9-Theregoesjojo. He’s my upset special in the Florida Derby, and son of Brahms will be a price to boot.

10-Mafaaz. Sorry, Dunkirk, but the John Gosden-trained winner of the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes in England just bounced you off my top 10. Sure, the son of the Machiavellian stallion Medicean is bred for turf and he’s lightly raced. But I give a great deal of respect to Gosden, who is no stranger to racing on dirt in the U.S., having stabled in California for a number of years. Besides, Dunkirk has plenty of opportunity this coming weekend to make a name for himself outside of the maiden and allowance  ranks when he goes to post in the Florida Derby.

We all knew a shakeup was about to occur. Rarely if ever, do the consensus horses at the top of the field continue to impress throughout the Derby prep season and this year has officially proven to be no different. Despite leaving the third-place finisher behind by eight lengths, it is hard to ignore the fact that Old Fashioned was beaten in the Rebel Stakes by 56-1 shot Win Willy, a $25,000 yearling purchase whose victory led his connections to turn down a $3-million offer in exchange for the promise of an exciting two months on the Triple Crown trail. This turn of events has dropped the previous consensus number one to sixth in our poll.

Perhaps the most interesting trend this week is a tightening in what seemed to be the de facto top 8 horses despite first place votes being distributed as low as 10th with Rachel Alexandra. The 74-point drop between Desert Party and Imperial Council might imply a tightening at the top and less confidence in the bottom 12 contenders.

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Paulick’s Derby Picks

1-Pioneerof the Nile. My initial reaction was to drop the Empire Maker colt from the top spot, because I didn’t like the way he won Saturday’s San Felipe. But after looking at the slow fractions, and the fact he moved sooner than normal, his win was really not as bad as it looked to me the first time around. Plus, it was a win, and trainer Bob Baffert hadn’t done that much with him in the way of training. His philosophy  isn’t to win all the preps, it’s to have the horse on his game for the Kentucky Derby; or, as only Baffert can say, “We don’t wear our good shoes until Sunday.”

2- The Pamplemousse. He went back to work with a three-eighths of a mile breeze after his eye-popping victory in the Sham Stakes. California clocker Bruno De Julio (click here <http://www.racingwithbruno.com/> to visit his web site) said the Kafwain colt seems to be thriving and is holding his weight and coat color well. Looking forward to his showdown against Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby.

3- Friesan Fire. How many times have we seen horses draw off to huge winning margins on a sloppy racetrack like Friesan Fire did in Saturday’s Louisiana Derby? He’s obviously a mudlark, so that begs the questions: How much did the racing surface factor in to that huge margin of victory? I think it was a big contributing factor. Sloppy track winners are often overbet in their next starts, and I think this A.P. Indy colt was overbet down to 8-1 the next day in the second pool of the Derby Futures wager.

4-I Want Revenge. Stephen Got Even colt worked an easy half-mile at Hollywood Park Sunday, just over a week after his dominating victory at Aqueduct in the Gotham Stakes. Clocker De Julio said of the work: “visually it was perfect. The colt was well relaxed and has actually kept good weight on despite the race being only eight days ago. His coat is impeccable and he seems to be thriving physically.” Figures to be part of a sizable speed brigade in this year’s Derby field.

5-Quality Road. Will be staying in Florida for the Florida Derby rather than going to New York for the Wood Memorial, as trainer Jimmy Jerkens originally said he might do. Son of Elusive Quality still has a lot to prove, from the standpoint of getting the Derby distance.

6-Old Fashioned.  I’ve been questioning the quality of the horses Old Fashioned has been beating, so it didn’t help his cause when a 56-1 longshot blew by him in the final sixteenth of a mile in Saturday’s Rebel. Yes, Ramon Dominguez allowed the colt to chase fast early fractions on a tiring track, but if that’s the only way this son of Unbridled’s Song can run, then he’s going to be up against it in the Kentucky Derby. It’s probably too late to expect any change in his running style.

7-Desert Party. Not much to say about son of Street Cry, who is being geared up for the UAE Derby in Dubai. One of these days, Sheikh Mohammed will succeed in winning the Kentucky Derby with a horse that winters in Dubai, but this is a tough group of 3-year-olds and I don’t this is going to be his year.

8-Imperial Council.  Added son of Empire Maker to my list this week after going back and looking at his effort in the Gotham behind I Want Revenge. Looks like he’s got a lot of improvement left in him.

9-Theregoesjojo. Florida Derby will be make or break for the son of Brahms.

10-Dunkirk. I finally relented and added the unbeaten son of Unbridled’s Song onto my top 10, in part because of the disappointing performances of others last weekend in the Tampa Bay Derby and Louisiana Derby. I stand behind the belief that 2-year-old form’s historical significance in being able to win the Kentucky Derby is not an accident but a result of the unique and challenging circumstances of the race.

Interesting that four of my top 10 are by sons of Unbridled and three are by A.P. Indy or his sons or grandsons. That may be contributing to the overall quality of this group. It’s good to see stamina influences represented in such big numbers among the leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby.