PAULICK PREAKNESS INDEX by AmWest Entertainment: ALEXANDRA THE GREAT?
It has been almost two weeks since Mine That Bird and jockey Calvin Borel shocked the sports world with their improbable long shot victory in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. And as with any Derby aftermath, the question lingers in the air; will this be the year we end the Triple Crown drought? If our voters are any indication, the answer is an emphatic no as Mine That Bird is ranked in fourth place among the 14 horses prospective Preakness starters.
Furthermore, Calvin Borel’s decision to forego the Derby hero to ride the amazing Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness, an unprecedented move in the 135 years of the Kentucky Derby, goes even more to the point that this may not be the year racing celebrates its 12th Triple Crown champion. Instead, the consensus of our 23 voters, including the fans, was overwhelmingly in favor of Rachel Alexandra to run away with this much anticipated race. Will this hold true? Will trainer Bob Baffert spoil the Oaks/Derby story line with Pioneerof the Nile? Or perhaps we will see another unlikely outcome with a different long shot coming out of nowhere to take the prize. Only Saturday will tell.
Ray Paulick’s Preakness Analysis
1-Pioneerof the Nile. Sure, he looked like he was running in slow motion in the Kentucky Derby compared to Mine That Bird when he rocketed up the rail to victory, but I think the condition of the racetrack had a lot to do with the outcome of the race. Pioneerof the Nile was well off the rail on what I think was the slower part of the track all the way and closer to the pace than expected. I liked the son of Empire Maker going into the Derby, and I think he dispelled concerns that he was a horse that could only run on synthetic tracks. His workout on Monday morning that prompted trainer Bob Baffert to give Pioneerof the Nile the green light to go to Pimlico indicates he came out of the Derby in very good shape.
2- Papa Clem. Smart Strike colt wanted to run more in the early going of the Kentucky Derby while jockey Rafael Bejarano was trying to get him to settle off the pace, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a change of tactics for the Preakness. Gary Stute-trained colt has shown versatility in the past, going to the front and setting moderate fractions to win or coming from midpack, as he did in taking the Arkansas Derby. Preakness field won’t be without pace, with Big Drama and Take the Points expected to show early speed. I’d look for Papa Clem to be just behind the early leaders.
3-Rachel Alexandra. The only knock on the filly is that she hasn’t really faced top-class competition yet. The Kentucky Oaks was her first Grade 1 race, and the field was pretty weak by Oaks standards. Nevertheless, what she did, running away from her beleaguered rivals to win by 20 π lengths, with her jockey sitting like a statue (except for the occasional glance back), was remarkable. This is a huge step up, and I’m not convinced that she’s up to the task.
4-Friesan Fire. Big disappointment in the Kentucky Derby after being sent off as the betting favorite on a sloppy racetrack that everyone thought he would like, following his eye-catching Louisiana Derby win in the slop at Fair Ground. Got bumped around pretty good at the start and came back with some minor cuts and scrapes. A.P. Indy colt has bounced back quickly for trainer Larry Jones and his Tuesday morning workout at Pimlico (five furlongs in :58.40) was very sharp.
5-Mine That Bird. Can’t take the Kentucky Derby victory away from him, no matter how strange the track might have played or how all the so-called “experts” (myself included) dismissed his chances going into the race. He was champion 2-year-old in Canada last year, and it’s clear that in his two losses in New Mexico he didn’t get the right kind of trip. Whether he was pushed to the lead early by Casey Lambert or moved on his own, he came up empty in the stretch of both the Borderland and Sunland Derbies. I think the track and especially a rail bias played in his favor for the Kentucky Derby, but Calvin Borel deserves a great deal of credit for saving Mine That Bird for one big run from far back. I don’t see a repeat performance in the Preakness.
6-Musket Man. Finished with determination in the Kentucky Derby after suffering some early problems, closing to get third while on the far outside, the deepest or stickiest part of the racetrack that day. Never worse than third in seven lifetime starts.
7-Take the Points. Skipped the Kentucky Derby to point for the Preakness, so trainer Todd Pletcher has a very fresh horse going into the race. May not have liked the synthetic surfaces or maybe he just wasn’t sharp enough to win either of his two California starts. I wouldn’t be surprised to see big improvement.
8-Big Drama. Almost certain to set the pace in the Preakness, and though the Montbrook colt has stretched his speed out to 1 1/16 miles before, he hasn’t done it against this level of competition.
9-General Quarters. Didn’t really like his chances in the Kentucky Derby and I don’t think he’s moved up with his training since finishing 10th at Churchill Downs.
10-Terrain. On a five-race losing streak since being moved up from third to first in the Arlington-Washington Futurity last September. Would take a major form reversal to threaten here.
| Ray Paulick | Bradford Cummings | Fan Vote | Alex Brown | Billy Reed | Bill Finley | Valerie Grash |
| Paulick Report | Paulick Report | Paulick Report | Alex Brown Racing | Billy Reed Says | ESPN, NYT | Foolish Pleasure |
| Pioneerof the Nile | Pioneerof the Nile | Rachel Alexandra | Rachel Alexandra | Rachel Alexandra | Rachel Alexandra | Musket Man |
| Papa Clem | Rachel Alexandra | Pioneerof the Nile | Mine That Bird | Pioneerof the Nile | Pioneerof the Nile | Rachel Alexandra |
| Rachel Alexandra | Musket Man | Mine That Bird | Pioneerof the Nile | Papa Clem | Friesan Fire | Friesan Fire |
| Friesan Fire | Papa Clem | Friesan Fire | Papa Clem | Mine That Bird | Papa Clem | Papa Clem |
| Mine That Bird | General Quarters | Musket Man | Musket Man | Friesan Fire | Mine That Bird | Pioneerof the Nile |
| Musket Man | Mine That Bird | Papa Clem | Big Drama | Musket Man | Big Drama | Take The Points |
| Take The Points | Friesan Fire | General Quarters | General Quarters | General Quarters | Musket Man | Big Drama |
| Big Drama | Big Drama | Big Drama | Friesan Fire | Terrain | General Quarters | Mine That Bird |
| General Quarters | Luv Guv | Terrain | Take The Points | Big Drama | Take The Points | General Quarters |
| Terrain | Terrain | Take The Points | Flying Private | Luv Guv | Terrain | Tone It Down |
| Gary West | Dana Byerly | Bill Christine | Vic Zast |
Jon White |
Richard Eng |
Art Wilson |
| FW Star-Telegram | Green But Game | Horserace Insider | Horserace Insider |
HRTV, Santa Anita TV |
Las Vegas R-J |
LA Newspaper Group |
| Rachel Alexandra | Rachel Alexandra | Pioneerof the Nile | Rachel Alexandra | Pioneerof the Nile | Rachel Alexandra | Rachel Alexandra |
| Big Drama | Mine That Bird | Friesan Fire | Pioneerof the Nile | Rachel Alexandra | Pioneerof the Nile | Pioneerof the Nile |
| Friesan Fire | Big Drama | Papa Clem | Papa Clem | Mine That Bird | Friesan Fire | Friesan Fire |
| Pioneerof the Nile | Musket Man | Rachel Alexandra | Friesan Fire | Papa Clem | Musket Man | Papa Clem |
| Terrain | Friesan Fire | Musket Man | Musket Man | Musket Man | Mine That Bird | Musket Man |
| Musket Man | Papa Clem | Mine That Bird | General Quarters | Friesan Fire | Papa Clem | Big Drama |
| Papa Clem | General Quarters | Take The Points | Take The Points | Big Drama | General Quarters | General Quarters |
| Mine That Bird | Pioneerof the Nile | Conservative | Big Drama | General Quarters | Terrain | Mine That Bird |
| General Quarters | Flying Private | General Quarters | Mine That Bird | Take The Points | Take The Points | Take The Points |
| Flying Private | Luv Guv | Big Drama | Tone It Down | Terrain | Big Drama | Terrain |
| Joe Drape | Andy Serling | Jessica Chapel | Martha Claussen | Brendan O’Meara | Jeff Scott | Lisa Grimm |
| New York Times | NYRA | Railbird | SureBet Racing News | The Saratogian | The Saratogian | Superfectablog |
| Rachel Alexandra | Rachel Alexandra | Rachel Alexandra | Rachel Alexandra | Mine That Bird | Pioneerof the Nile | Rachel Alexandra |
| Friesan Fire | Pioneerof the Nile | Big Drama | Mine That Bird | Rachel Alexandra | Friesan Fire | Musket Man |
| Mine That Bird | Big Drama | Pioneerof the Nile | Papa Clem | Take The Points | Rachel Alexandra | Papa Clem |
| Big Drama | Mine That Bird | Papa Clem | Pioneerof the Nile | Musket Man | Papa Clem | Mine That Bird |
| Papa Clem | Papa Clem | Friesan Fire | Musket Man | Big Drama | Mine That Bird | Friesan Fire |
| Musket Man | Friesan Fire | Musket Man | Friesan Fire | Papa Clem | Musket Man | Pioneerof the Nile |
| Terrain | Musket Man | Mine That Bird | General Quarters | Friesan Fire | General Quarters | Big Drama |
| Luv Guv | General Quarters | General Quarters | Terrain | Pioneerof the Nile | Take The Points | General Quarters |
| General Quarters | Take The Points | Take The Points | Big Drama | Terrain | Terrain | Terrain |
| Pioneerof the Nile | Conservative | Terrain | Tone It Down | Tone It Down | Big Drama | Take The Points |
| Patrick Patten | Peter Denk | Nick Kling | Simon Bray |
| Tbred Bloggers Alliance | Thoroughbred Times | The Troy Record | TVG |
| Rachel Alexandra | Mine That Bird | Rachel Alexandra | Rachel Alexandra |
| Pioneerof the Nile | Rachel Alexandra | Pioneerof the Nile | Musket Man |
| Mine That Bird | Pioneerof the Nile | Musket Man | Pioneerof the NIle |
| Big Drama | Musket Man | Papa Clem | Big Drama |
| Friesan Fire | Terrain | Mine That Bird | Papa Clem |
| Papa Clem | Friesan Fire | Friesan Fire | Mine That Bird |
| Terrain | Papa Clem | Big Drama | Friesan Fire |
| Musket Man | Big Drama | General Quarters | Take The Points |
| General Quarters | General Quarters | Take The Points | Terrain |
| Take The Points | Take The Points | Terrain | General Quarters |
Tags: alex brown, andy serling, Art Wilson, Big Drama, bill christine, bill finley, Billy Reed, bradford cummings, Brendan O'Meara, Calvin Borel, Conservative, Dana Byerly, Flying Private, Friesan Fire, Gary West, General Quarters, Jeff Scott, Jessica Chapel, Joe Drape, Jon White, Lisa Grimm, Luv Guv, Martha Claussen, mine that bird, musket man, Nick Kling, Papa Clem, Patrick Patten, Paulick Preakness Index, Peter Denk, Pioneerof The Nile, preakness, Rachel Alexandra, Ray Paulick, Richard Eng, Simon Bray, Take The Points, Terrain, Tone It Down, Valerie Grash, Vic Zast
May 12th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
I think it would be hilarious if Mine That Bird won the Triple, because most of the “experts” have so roundly dissed him and given him virtually zero chance of doing it.
Regarding Rachel Alexandra - why is it that the vast majority of these same experts are NOT saying that she hasn’t been “looked in the eye” yet?
If a colt were in the same position, they would yammer about it endlessly and reduce his chances of winning because of it. Andy Beyer even picked Cormorant over Seattle Slew to win the Preakness, because Slew had allegedly never been “looked in the eye”.
May 12th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
Hold on! There may be another scheme being concocted to keep Rachel Alexandra out of the race….so please stop the voting!
Mine That Bird’s Beyer Speed Figure from the Kentucky Derby says it all…the gelding wins the Preakness and you can simply say that this crop of “elite” 3yo Thoroughbreds is an utter joke.
May 12th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
Gabby’s Golden Gal looked Rachel in the eye, albeit a fleeting look - and was afraid, very afraid.
Seriously, kind hard to “look her in the eye” if you can’t get in the same zip code, right? I read a story somewhere that Shaun Bridgmohan, I think, said Rachel looked at his filly in the Golden Rod last year as though to say, “Where do you think you’re going?” And then dismissed her.
I did rank Rachel first over Pioneer and Mine That Bird. But I think MTB is a fluke and Rachel will regress.
Love Musket Man for the Preakness now. Underrated and consistent horse who worked lights out this morning.
May 12th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
Speaking of looking a horse in the eye, check out the print edition of Bloodhorse that has the KD recap (MTB is on the cover). Towards the back of the magazine where they have the result for the Woodford Turf, take a look at the photo of Einstein staring back at Cowboy Cal as he puts his head in front as the two near the wire.
Ray, I apologize for making ref to BH, but the picture is awesome.
May 12th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
Barbara - the colts will most likely be “in the same zip code” with RA yet none of the experts are yammering with their typical “look in the eye” commentary. I noted it because they’ve knocked every fast, front running colt that I can recall all the way back to Seattle Slew for that issue.
Andy Beyer claimed Slew had never been looked in the eye and would therefore lose the Preakness. Problem with that, Slew had a duel with For The Moment in the Derby that Beyer apparently chose not to notice. And it was a sustained duel - not a fleeting moment like RA has faced. Yet there’s none of the same “never been looked in the eye” bashing.
May 12th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
Yes the colts (and gelding) will certainly be in her zip code but I don’t think her problem will be a lack of courage.
May 12th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
When was the last time the Preakness looked this exciting? NBC should be promoting the heck out of this race.
‘Rachel’ if she is that same monster horse found on Oaks Day will be a sight to see and rightly earn being the morning line favorite. However she could bounce, the track could remain dead (as it is today), and maybe she won’t handle the colts/geldings as well as expected. Who knows? That’s why they run the race.
I don’t think anyone is necessarily towering over the field like a Big Brown and regardless of Sunday’s antics this should be one race worthy of the hype or at least 2 minutes of the public’s attention.
Run a clean race and the outcome will be front page news coast to coast Sunday morning to the benefit of the sport.
May 12th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
Friesan Fire worked very fast before the Derby and again before the Preakness. Does he like to run his races in the morning?
Rachel wasn’t being pointed toward the Preakness and it is perhaps why Borel let her win by so much instead of saving her. He might regret it but might be happy that he pushed MTB more than he had to. Winning by daylight is fun, but there is no reason to do so this time of year.
I like Musket Man to win.
May 12th, 2009 at 4:36 pm
well might as well put my 2 cents in,ill go with a super keying Rachel with Pioneer with Freisen,Papa,Musket,Drama,and Bird for 3rd and 4th.
May 12th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
We’re thinking too much.
And the Ph.D. holders didn’t cash any tickets on Derby Day.
I’m tempted to turn a couple of hundred dollars loose and play Argle Bargle at the betting window, tossing Rachel in hopes of seeing another “WHO was THAT?!” Triple Crown race finish.
I mean, if Rachel is this unbeatable, why are the trainers of thirteen other horses so willing to be beat on Saturday?
May 14th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
I disagree with the author’s contention that the “only knock on the filly” is that she hasn’t faced tough competition. She has several knocks:
She’s breaking from a post that has never won. Add to that, breaking from the far outside doesn’t suit a jockey nicknamed BoRAIL.
She’s 0-2 in races after a 15 day break. The Preakness is after a 15 day break.
Horses are creatures of habit so the recent trainer/barn switch probably has her at least a little off kilter.
Her margin of victory in the Oaks was deceptive. Her final fractions in the stretch were pretty slow. So “her jockey sitting like a statue” is meaningless. Most grades stakes winners would run those same fractions with a motionless jockey.
She’s stepping up in distance, but most of the Derby horses have already proven themselves past the Preakness distance. (I say “most” because I don’t count the horses that finished in the back of the Derby as proven).
Finally, a filly hasn’t won the Preakness since 1924.
I seriously considered betting the filly to win, but there’s just too many negatives. That said, I still don’t have a clue which of the colts will win.
May 15th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
Oh, heck. Let’s try again (couldn’t do any worse than on May 2nd!).
Race Day Conditions: Overreaching; The Requiem; & Confusion.
Contenders: Papa Clem, POTN, Luv Gov (Selda’s Nemesis), Tone It Down
Cover Your A. - Big Drama, Rachel (The $8-9M Kept Woman)
Pass-General Quarters (the 7th horse in a 7-horse exacta box?)
Toss-MT Bird (sorry, Mike), Fly Private, Take The Points
Bet Against-Musket Man, Friesan Fire, Terrain (worst, at best)
Churchill Downs Future Pool November 2009:
“Where will the Preakness be held in 2010?”
Entries: New York, Kentucky, New Jersey, Delaware, etc.
May 16th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
What a pathetic ride Smith did on Mine that Bird. Had her further back than in derby, he waited for a break inside knowinf full well he wasn’t going to get it and then this horse still almost one.. That race was lost my the Hall of famer. Pathetic Smith….This horse delivered your best and you failed him!!!!! Please don’t go to NY
May 16th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
Zero winning tri,s from all the so called experts.
May 17th, 2009 at 9:32 am
Poor Rachael. She has done enough thanks to the last minute transaction. Who was it who said money speaks louder than reason. If they are not careful, they will have nothing to breed Curlin to. In my opinion, it would be truly cruel to put her up in the Belmont. Listen up everyone… … Calvin is trying to tell us something in his own way. She was struggling. Haven’t we learned anything by now? I have and besides, The Bird can kick —!!!
June 6th, 2009 at 10:39 am
Рна Украине так не делают… Ðаверное Ñтим РуÑÑкий и не похож на Хохла!